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<identifier>oai:HAL:hal-01441969v1</identifier>
<datestamp>2018-01-11</datestamp>
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<publisher>HAL CCSD</publisher>
<title lang=en>Local-scale projections of coral reef futures and implications of the Paris Agreement </title>
<creator>Van Hooidonk, Ruben, </creator>
<creator>Maynard, Jeffrey, </creator>
<creator>Tamelander, Jerker</creator>
<creator>Gove, Jamison, </creator>
<creator>Ahmadia, Gabby, </creator>
<creator>Raymundo, Laurie</creator>
<creator>Williams, Gareth</creator>
<creator>Heron, Scott, </creator>
<creator>Planes, Serge</creator>
<contributor>NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) ; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)</contributor>
<contributor>Centre de recherches insulaires et observatoire de l'environnement (CRIOBE) ; Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD) - École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)</contributor>
<contributor>United Nations Environment Programme</contributor>
<contributor> Ecosystems and Oceanography Program ; Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center</contributor>
<contributor>World Wildlife Fund</contributor>
<contributor>Marine Laboratory ; University of Guam</contributor>
<contributor>School of Ocean Sciences ; Bangor University</contributor>
<contributor>Marine Geophysical Laboratory ; James Cook University (JCU)</contributor>
<contributor>Laboratoire d'Excellence CORAIL (LabEX CORAIL) ; Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD) - Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG) - École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS) - École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER) - Université de la Réunion (UR) - Université de la Polynésie Française (UPF) - Université de Nouvelle Calédonie - Institut d'écologie et environnement</contributor>
<description>International audience</description>
<source>ISSN: 2045-2322</source>
<source>EISSN: 2045-2322</source>
<source>Scientific Reports</source>
<publisher>Nature Publishing Group</publisher>
<identifier>hal-01441969</identifier>
<identifier>https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01441969</identifier>
<identifier>https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01441969/document</identifier>
<identifier>https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01441969/file/local%20scale.pdf</identifier>
<source>https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01441969</source>
<source>Scientific Reports, Nature Publishing Group, 2016, pp.39666. 〈10.1038/srep39666〉</source>
<identifier>DOI : 10.1038/srep39666</identifier>
<relation>info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/srep39666</relation>
<language>en</language>
<subject lang=en>coral reefs conservation</subject>
<subject lang=en>Climate change</subject>
<subject lang=en> Paris agreement</subject>
<subject lang=en>C0P21</subject>
<subject>[SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes</subject>
<subject>[SDE.BE] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology</subject>
<type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</type>
<type>Journal articles</type>
<description lang=en>Increasingly frequent severe coral bleaching is among the greatest threats to coral reefs posed by climate change. Global climate models (GCMs) project great spatial variation in the timing of annual severe bleaching (ASB) conditions; a point at which reefs are certain to change and recovery will be limited. However, previous model-resolution projections (~1 × 1°) are too coarse to inform conservation planning. To meet the need for higher-resolution projections, we generated statistically downscaled projections (4-km resolution) for all coral reefs; these projections reveal high local-scale variation in ASB. Timing of ASB varies >10 years in 71 of the 87 countries and territories with >500 km 2 of reef area. Emissions scenario RCP4.5 represents lower emissions mid-century than will eventuate if pledges made following the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference (COP21) become reality. These pledges do little to provide reefs with more time to adapt and acclimate prior to severe bleaching conditions occurring annually. RCP4.5 adds 11 years to the global average ASB timing when compared to RCP8.5; however, >75% of reefs still experience ASB before 2070 under RCP4.5. Coral reef futures clearly vary greatly among and within countries, indicating the projections warrant consideration in most reef areas during conservation and management planning.</description>
<date>2016</date>
</dc>
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