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<title lang=en>Niche shift can impair the ability to predict invasion risk in the marine realm: an illustration using Mediterranean fish invaders</title>
<creator>Parravicini, Valeriano</creator>
<creator>Azzurro, Ernesto</creator>
<creator>Kulbicki, Michel</creator>
<creator>Belmaker, Jonathan</creator>
<contributor>Centre de recherches insulaires et observatoire de l'environnement (CRIOBE) ; Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD) - École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)</contributor>
<contributor>Laboratoire d'Excellence CORAIL (LabEX CORAIL) ; Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD) - Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG) - École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS) - École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER) - Université de la Réunion (UR) - Université de la Polynésie Française (UPF) - Université de Nouvelle Calédonie - Institut d'écologie et environnement</contributor>
<contributor>CESAB/FRB ; Fondation pour la Recherche sur la Biodiversité</contributor>
<contributor>Italian National Institute of Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA)</contributor>
<contributor>Department of Zoology ; Tel Aviv University [Tel Aviv]</contributor>
<description>International audience</description>
<source>ISSN: 1461-023X</source>
<source>EISSN: 1461-0248</source>
<source>Ecology Letters</source>
<publisher>Wiley</publisher>
<identifier>hal-01136126</identifier>
<identifier>https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01136126</identifier>
<source>https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01136126</source>
<source>Ecology Letters, Wiley, 2015, 18 (3), pp.246-253. 〈10.1111/ele.12401〉</source>
<identifier>DOI : 10.1111/ele.12401</identifier>
<relation>info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/ele.12401</relation>
<language>en</language>
<subject lang=en>species distribution models</subject>
<subject lang=en>Biological invasion</subject>
<subject lang=en>niche conservatism</subject>
<subject lang=en>niche expansion</subject>
<subject lang=en>niche shift</subject>
<subject>[SDE.BE] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology</subject>
<subject>[SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes</subject>
<subject>[SDV.BA] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Animal biology</subject>
<type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</type>
<type>Journal articles</type>
<description lang=en>Climatic niche conservatism, the tendency of species-climate associations to remain unchanged across space and time, is pivotal for forecasting the spread of invasive species and biodiversity changes. Indeed, it represents one of the key assumptions underlying species distribution models (SDMs), the main tool currently available for predicting range shifts of species. However, to date, no comprehensive assessment of niche conservatism is available for the marine realm. We use the invasion by Indo-Pacific tropical fishes into the Mediterranean Sea, the world's most invaded marine basin, to examine the conservatism of the climatic niche. We show that tropical invaders may spread far beyond their native niches and that SDMs do not predict their new distributions better than null models. Our results suggest that SDMs may underestimate the potential spread of invasive species and call for prudence in employing these models in order to forecast species invasion and their response to environmental change.</description>
<date>2015-03</date>
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