Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Public Library of Science
Résumé : International audience
Understanding the factors underlying the spatio-temporal distribution of infectious diseases provides useful information regarding their prevention and control. Dengue fever spatio-temporal patterns result from complex interactions between the virus, the host, and the vector. These interactions can be influenced by environmental conditions. Our objectives were to analyse dengue fever spatial distribution over New Caledonia during epidemic years, to identify some of the main underlying factors, and to predict the spatial evolution of dengue fever under changing climatic conditions, at the 2100 horizon. We used principal component analysis and support vector machines to analyse and model the influence of climate and socio-economic variables on the mean spatial distribution of 24,272 dengue cases reported from 1995 to 2012 in thirty-three communes of New Caledonia. We then modelled and estimated the future evolution of dengue incidence rates using a regional downscaling of future climate projections. The spatial distribution of dengue fever cases is highly heterogeneous. The variables most associated with this observed heterogeneity are the mean temperature, the mean number of people per premise, and the mean percentage of unemployed people, a variable highly correlated with people's way of life. Rainfall does not seem to play an important role in the spatial distribution of dengue cases during epidemics. By the end of the 21st century, if temperature increases by approximately 3°C, mean incidence rates during epidemics could double. In New Caledonia, a subtropical insular environment, both temperature and socio-economic conditions are influencing the spatial spread of dengue fever. Extension of this study to other countries worldwide should improve the knowledge about climate influence on dengue burden and about the complex interplay between different factors. This study presents a methodology that can be used as a step by step guide to model dengue spatial heterogeneity in other countries.
ISSN: 1935-2727

Droits : http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
pasteur-01247037
https://hal-riip.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-01247037
https://hal-riip.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-01247037/document
https://hal-riip.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-01247037/file/journal.pntd.0004211.pdf
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004211

Éditeur(s) : Amer Geophysical Union
Résumé : The hydrological and geochemical properties of the waters constituting the Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) determine the properties of the equatorial cold tongue. Understanding and quantifying the various EUC origins is therefore of prime importance. For this purpose, a high-resolution (1/4 degrees) interannual oceanic simulation was analyzed from the western tropical Pacific boundaries to 140 degrees W, using a Lagrangian framework. Waters from the Low-Latitude Western Boundary Currents (LLWBCs) transiting from Vitiaz Strait (the main contributor), from Solomon Strait, and via the Mindanao Current were identified as the principal sources to the EUC. Waters conveyed by the interior ocean off equator are negligible till 180 E. The LLWBCs' waters represent 87% of the EUC transport at 156 degrees E out of which the New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent (NGCU) is as large as 47%. The EUC meridional distribution suggests that the waters originating from Solomon Strait and Mindanao Current mostly remain in the hemisphere from which they originate. Contrastingly, Vitiaz Strait waters are found in both hemispheres. The vertical EUC distribution shows that the lower layer of the EUC is mainly composed of Vitiaz Strait waters. Finally, the source transport distributions were characterized, at their origin and within the EUC, as a function of density. These distributions showed that waters flowing through Vitiaz Strait at densities higher than those of the EUC (down to sigma(theta) = 27.2 kg m(-3)) undergo a diapycnal mixing and lighten during their journey to join the EUC. This lightening supports the suggestion that the NGCU is a major source for the EUC geochemical enrichment.
Journal Of Geophysical Research-oceans (0148-0227) (Amer Geophysical Union), 2011-12 , Vol. 116 , N. C12044 , P. 16 p.

Droits : 2011 by the American Geophysical Union
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00060/17105/14621.pdf
DOI:10.1029/2011JC007477
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00060/17105/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Nature Publishing Group
Résumé : International audience
Seabirds concentrate nutrients from large marine areas on their nesting islands playing an important ecological role in nutrient transfer between marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Here we investigate the role of guano on corals reefs across scales by analyzing the stable nitrogen isotopic (delta N-15) values of the scleractinian coral Pocillopora damicornis on fringing reefs around two Pacific remote islets with large seabird colonies. Marine stations closest to the seabird colonies had higher nitrate + nitrite concentrations compared to more distant stations. Coral and zooxanthellae delta N-15 values were also higher at these sites, suggesting that guano-derived nitrogen is assimilated into corals and contributes to their nitrogen requirements. The spatial extent of guano influence was however restricted to a local scale. Our results demonstrate that seabird-derived nutrients not only spread across the terrestrial ecosystem, but also affect components of the adjacent marine ecosystem. Further studies are now needed to assess if this nutrient input has a positive or negative effect for corals. Such studies on remote islets also open fresh perspectives to understand how nutrients affect coral reefs isolated from other anthropogenic stressors.
ISSN: 2045-2322

hal-01681575
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01681575
DOI : 10.1038/s41598-017-03781-y