Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Springer Verlag
Résumé : We present a preliminary probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment of Canadian coastlines from local and far-field, earthquake, and large submarine landslide sources. Analyses involve published historical, palaeotsunami and palaeoseismic data, modelling, and empirical relations between fault area, earthquake magnitude, and tsunami run-up. The cumulative estimated tsunami hazard for potentially damaging run-up (≥1.5 m) of the outer Pacific coastline is ~40-80 % in 50 years, respectively one and two orders of magnitude greater than the outer Atlantic (~1-15 %) and the Arctic (<1 %). For larger run-up with significant damage potential (≥3 m), Pacific hazard is ~10-30 % in 50 years, again much larger than both the Atlantic (~1-5 %) and Arctic (<1 %). For outer Pacific coastlines, the ≥1.5 m run-up hazard is dominated by far-field subduction zones, but the probability of run-up ≥3 m is highest for local megathrust sources, particularly the Cascadia subduction zone; thrust sources further north are also significant, as illustrated by the 2012 Haida Gwaii event. For Juan de Fuca and Georgia Straits, the Cascadia megathrust dominates the hazard at both levels. Tsunami hazard on the Atlantic coastline is dominated by poorly constrained far-field subduction sources; a lesser hazard is posed by near-field continental slope failures similar to the 1929 Grand Banks event. Tsunami hazard on the Arctic coastline is poorly constrained, but is likely dominated by continental slope failures; a hypothetical earthquake source beneath the Mackenzie delta requires further study. We highlight areas susceptible to locally damaging landslide-generated tsunamis, but do not quantify the hazard.
ISSN: 0921-030X

hal-00963614
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00963614
DOI : 10.1007/s11069-013-0809-5

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : Report
The Canadian coastline is the longest of any country in the world, and is at risk from tsunamis generated in three oceans. The current state of knowledge precludes a complete probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment, which would require quantification of a wide range of possible scenarios for each tsunami source, coupled with modelling that incorporates fine-resolution bathymetry and onland topography to adequately assess potential runup at the coast. This preliminary assessment presents a first attempt to quantify the tsunami hazard on the Canadian Pacific, Atlantic and Arctic coastlines from local and far-field, earthquake and large landslide sources. For each source considered, we calculate the probability that tsunami runup at the coast will exceed 1.5 m (threshold for potential damage) and 3 m (significant damage potential), in a 50-year period. For each coastal region, we then combine the relative hazard from each source to calculate the overall probability that the coastline in question will experience tsunami runup exceeding 1.5 m (and 3 m) within a 50-year period, from any geological source. We also consider the maximum runup levels expected to occur within time periods of 100, 500, 1000, and 2500 years.
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00856677

hal-00856677
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00856677
DOI : 10.4095/292067

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
Although earthquakes and tsunamis are less frequent in the Dover Straitthan over active subduction zones, a plausible potential exists for intraplate earthquakes of magnitude Mw=6.9 generating a tsunami with damaging consequences. In April 1580, an earthquake shook the region violently and destructions were reported as far as London in the north andRouen in the south. Despite fair weather conditions, a series of abnormal sea waves was reported in several harbours (Calais, Boulogne and Dover) on the same day. A first step was to produce a range of numerical coseismic tsunami simulations and to compare them with historical witness accounts. Results raise the question of whether such earthquakes could also triggerchalk flow-generated tsunamis along cliff lines on both sides of the Strait. Gravity-driven collapses affect thechalk cliffs periodically, but local tsunami waves caused by very large mass movements could reach heights of several meters and, for example, strike Dover.
Proceedings of the 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
Lisbonne, Portugal

halshs-01291496
https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01291496