Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Springer Verlag
Résumé : We present a preliminary probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment of Canadian coastlines from local and far-field, earthquake, and large submarine landslide sources. Analyses involve published historical, palaeotsunami and palaeoseismic data, modelling, and empirical relations between fault area, earthquake magnitude, and tsunami run-up. The cumulative estimated tsunami hazard for potentially damaging run-up (≥1.5 m) of the outer Pacific coastline is ~40-80 % in 50 years, respectively one and two orders of magnitude greater than the outer Atlantic (~1-15 %) and the Arctic (<1 %). For larger run-up with significant damage potential (≥3 m), Pacific hazard is ~10-30 % in 50 years, again much larger than both the Atlantic (~1-5 %) and Arctic (<1 %). For outer Pacific coastlines, the ≥1.5 m run-up hazard is dominated by far-field subduction zones, but the probability of run-up ≥3 m is highest for local megathrust sources, particularly the Cascadia subduction zone; thrust sources further north are also significant, as illustrated by the 2012 Haida Gwaii event. For Juan de Fuca and Georgia Straits, the Cascadia megathrust dominates the hazard at both levels. Tsunami hazard on the Atlantic coastline is dominated by poorly constrained far-field subduction sources; a lesser hazard is posed by near-field continental slope failures similar to the 1929 Grand Banks event. Tsunami hazard on the Arctic coastline is poorly constrained, but is likely dominated by continental slope failures; a hypothetical earthquake source beneath the Mackenzie delta requires further study. We highlight areas susceptible to locally damaging landslide-generated tsunamis, but do not quantify the hazard.
ISSN: 0921-030X

hal-00963614
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00963614
DOI : 10.1007/s11069-013-0809-5

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union
Résumé : International audience
Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) are commonly based on frequency magnitude statistics from 50-100 yearlong earthquake catalogs, assuming that these statistics are representative of the longer-term frequency of large earthquakes. We test an alternative PSHA approach in continental western Canada, including adjacent areas of northwestern U. S. A., using regional strain rates derived from 179 Global Positioning System (GPS) horizontal velocities. GPS strain rates are converted to earthquake statistics, seismic moment rates, and ground shaking probabilities in seismic source zones using a logic-tree method for uncertainty propagation. Median GPS-based moment rates and shaking estimates agree well with those derived from earthquake catalogs in only two zones (Puget Sound and mid-Vancouver Island). In most other zones, median GPS-based moment rates are 6-150 times larger than those derived from earthquake catalogs (shaking estimates 2-5 times larger), although the GPS-based and catalog estimates commonly agree within their 67% uncertainties. This discrepancy may represent an under-sampling of long-term moment rates and shaking by earthquake catalogs in some zones; however a systematic under-sampling is unlikely over our entire study area. Although not demonstrated with a high confidence level, long-term regional aseismic deformation may account for a significant part of the GPS/catalog discrepancy and, in some areas, represent as much as 90% of the total deformation budget. In order to integrate GPS strain rates in PSHA models, seismic versus aseismic partitioning of long-term deformation needs to be quantified and understood in terms of the underlying mechanical processes.
ISSN: 0148-0227

hal-00689004
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00689004
DOI : 10.1029/2011JB008213

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Oxford University Press (OUP)
Résumé : International audience
OBJECTIVES: To compare virological effectiveness in patients who continued on a virologically successful first-line boosted protease inhibitor (PI)-containing combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) regimen or who switched to a PI-free cART including efavirenz, nevirapine or abacavir. METHODS: From the French Hospital Database on HIV, we selected 439 patients with undetectable viral load (VL) on a first-line boosted PI-containing cART regimen who switched to a PI-free combination including efavirenz, nevirapine or abacavir. Each of these patients was matched with three patients who continued to take their first-line cART regimen, on the basis of gender, age, CD4 cell count, VL, date of cART initiation and the duration of VL undetectability. Time to virological failure (VF) was analysed with Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox models. RESULTS: The 12 month probabilities of VF were 3.7% and 5.7% in non-switch and switch patients, respectively, and 3.9%, 7.2% and 9.0% in patients switching to efavirenz-, nevirapine- and abacavir-containing cART, respectively. After adjustment, only patients switching to abacavir-containing cART had a higher risk of VF than non-switch patients (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.99; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-3.79). CONCLUSIONS: Switching from a virologically successful first-line boosted PI-containing cART regimen to a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-containing cART regimen containing either efavirenz or nevirapine is virologically safe, while switching to abacavir-containing cART should be avoided.
ISSN: 0305-7453

hal-00875284
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00875284
DOI : 10.1093/jac/dkr208
PUBMED : 21636583

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : We present field data from segmented normal faults having particular displacement and overlapping geometries that may be related to down-dip branching of the fault segments. Based on a 3-D numerical modeling study of computed displacement and stress fields around different geometries of down-dip branched normal fault segments, we show that the bends of fault surfaces that coalesce at depth exert a significant influence on (I) the displacement distribution on the fault segment branches and (2) the quasi-static stress fields around the relay zones. The asymmetry in the displacement profiles and low fault interaction at relay zones modeled are consistent with the fault segment geometries observed in field data. As an application, we model the geometry and interaction of the Vallo di Diano normal fault which is segmented at the Earth's surface and which produced an earthquake of magnitude 6.4 along a single fault surface at depth. Numerical modeling of the segmented fault produces an asymmetric displacement profile and low shear stress at the relay zone consistent with the profile and fault interaction inferred from the held. We conclude that asymmetry of the displacement profile and large overlap/separation ratio of the unlinked relay zone can be indicators of the presence of a continuous fault surface underneath. These geometrical attributes are therefore important to consider in the probabilistic analysis of seismic hazard along segmented normal faults.
ISSN: 0191-8141

hal-00411161
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00411161
DOI : 10.1016/j.jsg.2008.07.005