Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD International Association for Energy Economics
Résumé : International audience
In this paper we propose to determinate and to test a set ofstatistical parameters (20)to estimate the predictability of the global horizontal irradiation time series and thereby propose a new prospective tool indicating the expected error regardlessthe forecasting methodsa modeller can possibly implement. The mean absolute log return, which is a tool usually used in econometry, proves to be a very good estimator. Some examples of the use of this tool are exposed, showing the interest of this statistical parameter in concrete cases of predictions or optimizations.
ISSN: 0195-6574

hal-01180041
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01180041
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01180041/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01180041/file/discriminent_param.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Royal Society
Résumé : Coral bleaching events are predicted to occur more frequently in the coming decades with global warming. The susceptibility of corals to bleaching during thermal stress episodes depends on many factors, including the magnitude of thermal stress and irradiance. The interactions among these two factors, and in particular with ultra-violet radiation (UVR), the most harmful component of light, are more complex than assumed, and are not yet well understood. This paper explores the individual and combined effects of temperature and UVR on the metabolism of Acropora muricata, one of the most abundant coral species worldwide. Particulate and dissolved organic matter (POM/DOM) fluxes and organic matter (OM) degradation by the mucus-associated bacteria were also monitored in all conditions. The results show that UVR exposure exacerbated the temperature-induced bleaching, but did not affect OM fluxes, which were only altered by seawater warming. Temperature increase induced a shift from POM release and DOM uptake in healthy corals to POM uptake and DOM release in stressed ones. POM uptake was linked to a significant grazing of pico- and nanoplankton particles during the incubation, to fulfil the energetic requirements of A. muricata in the absence of autotrophy. Finally, OM degradation by mucus-associated bacterial activity was unaffected by UVR exposure, but significantly increased under high temperature. Altogether, our results demonstrate that seawater warming and UVR not only affect coral physiology, but also the way corals interact with the surrounding seawater, with potential consequences for coral reef biogeochemical cycles and food webs.
ISSN: 2046-6390

hal-01606454
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01606454
DOI : 10.1242/bio.026757
PRODINRA : 406580
PUBMED : 28811302

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
In this paper, we propose a benchmarking of supervised machine learning techniques (neural networks, Gaussian processes and support vector machines) in order to forecast the Global Horizontal solar Irradiance (GHI). We also include in this benchmark a simple linear autoregressive (AR) model as well as two naive models based on persistence of the GHI and persistence of the clear sky index (denoted herein scaled persistence model). The models are calibrated and validatedwith data from three French islands: Corsica (41.91°N; 8.73°E), Guadeloupe (16.26°N; 61.51°W) and Reunion (21.34°S ; 55.49°E). The main findings of this work are, that for hour ahead solar forecasting,the machine learning techniques slightly improve the performances exhibited by the linear AR and the scaled persistence model. However, the improvement appears to be more pronounced in case of unstable sky conditions.These nonlinear techniques start to outperform their simple counterparts for forecasting horizons greater than one hour.
ISSN: 0038-092X

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
hal-01099211
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01099211
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01099211/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01099211/file/Manuscript_Lauretetal_Rev_unmarked.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Taylor & Francis: STM, Behavioural Science and Public Health Titles
Résumé : International audience
Measurements of daily means of surface solar irradiance made at four ground stations in French Guiana are compared to estimates from the HelioClim-3 database produced by the Heliosat-2 method applied to Meteosat satellite images. The bias ranges from 12 W m−2 (6% of the mean of measurements) to 23 W m−2 (12%), depending on the stations. The root mean square difference ranges between 23 W m−2 (11%) and 35 W m−2 (18%). The correlation coefficient (r) is close to 0.9. Better results are observed during the rainy season than during the dry season. Uncertainties are mainly due to the presence of clouds, large viewing angles of the Meteosat satellite, and limitations of the atmospheric transmittance model under the tropical atmospheric conditions. It is concluded that the Heliosat-2 method provides new knowledge about solar radiation in French Guiana.
International Journal of Remote Sensing

hal-00779675
https://hal-mines-paristech.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00779675
https://hal-mines-paristech.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00779675/document
DOI : 10.1080/01431161.2012.756598