Éditeur(s) : INRA : Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique Université des Antilles. Service commun de la documentation
Extrait de : 52e congrès annuel de la Société caribéenne des plantes alimentaires / 52nd annual meeting of the Caribbean food crops society (CFCS), du 10 au 16 juillet 2016. INRA, CFCS
Description : In this study the greenhouse gas emission (GHGE) profiles in the agriculture sector of some Caribbean nations are reviewed and strategies proposed to mitigate climate change are assessed. Twenty-four (24) Caribbean nations were included in an initial assessment to determine their mean GHG emissions in CO2eq over the period 1990-2011 and then ranked according to a range of emission metrics into the highest and lowest emitters. While Caribbean nations have extremely low absolute emissions compared to most other countries/regions, relative to human population, land area and agricultural production, values in the region are comparable to the rest of the world including some of the most populated and largest countries. Eight (8) of the highest emitters were then selected and their National Communications (NC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) were reviewed (and other sources in the case of Guadeloupe and Puerto Rico) to determine their mitigation priorities. Of the eight, only Guyana, Guadeloupe and Puerto Rico have documented any significant intent to mitigate GHG in agriculture. None however, reviewed their GHG emissions other than in absolute terms. Emissions relative to production (emission/production ratio or intensity ratio) can be particularly useful in providing a better understanding of the areas where mitigation should be prioritized. These mitigation priorities are also more likely to enhance food security goals and also contribute to climate change adaptation. Dans cette étude les profils de l'émission de gaz participant à l'effet de serre (GHGE) dans le secteur d'agriculture de quelques nations des Caraïbes sont passés en revue et des stratégies proposées pour atténuer le changement climatique sont évaluées. Vingt-quatre (24) nations des Caraïbes ont été incluses dans une première évaluation pour déterminer leurs émissions moyennes de GHG dans CO2eq au cours de la période 1990-2011 et puis rangées selon une gamme de la métrique d'émission dans les plus hauts et plus bas émetteurs. Tandis que les nations des Caraïbes ont extrêmement - les basses émissions absolues comparées à la plupart des autres pays/régions, relativement à la population humaine, la région terrestre et la production agricole, valeurs dans la région sont comparables au reste du monde comprenant certains des pays les plus peuplés et les plus grands. Huit (8) des plus hauts émetteurs ont été alors sélectionnés et leurs communications nationales (OR) à la convention-cadre des Nations Unies sur le changement climatique (UNFCCC) ont été passées en revue (et d'autres sources dans le cas de la Guadeloupe et du Porto Rico) pour déterminer leurs priorités de réduction. Des huit, seulement la Guyane, la Guadeloupe et le Porto Rico ont documenté n'importe quelle intention significative pour atténuer GHG dans l'agriculture. Aucun cependant, passé en revue leurs émissions de GHG autres qu'en des termes absolus. À production relative d'émissions (rapport d'émission/production ou rapport d'intensité) peut être particulièrement utile en fournissant une meilleure compréhension des secteurs où la réduction devrait être donnée la priorité. Ces priorités de réduction sont également pour augmenter des buts de sécurité de nourriture et pour contribuer également à l'adaptation de changement climatique.
Siècle(s) traité(s) : 21
Droits : CC-BY-NC-ND - Attribution - Pas d'utilisation commerciale - Pas de modification
Permalien : http://www.manioc.org/fichiers/V16246
V16246

Éditeur(s) : University of West Indies, Trinidad &Tobago Université des Antilles. Service commun de la documentation
Extrait de : 52e congrès annuel de la Société caribéenne des plantes alimentaires / 52nd annual meeting of the Caribbean food crops society (CFCS), du 10 au 16 juillet 2016. INRA, CFCS
Description : Carbon dioxide (CO2) accounts for the largest proportion (74%) of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally, with agricultural activities contributing approximately 25% of this gas. Opportunities to reduce the emissions in the sector can therefore contribute significantly to mitigating global climate change. Ag-lime is used extensively to alleviate problems of soil acidity and the potential for this material to contribute to C sequestration in soils is gaining interest among researchers. A laboratory experiment using C-13 isotopic labelling techniques was therefore established to answer the following questions: 1) Is there a potential for sequestering C using ag-lime in Trinidad acid soils? 2) Does enhancing soil microbial respiration by applying labile organic amendments enhance the C sequestration potential of ag-lime? 3) Are lime-derived C (LDC) estimates from non-isotopic difference technique comparable to that from the C- 13 isotopic labelling technique? The results ascertained for the study showed significant (P<0.05) differences between the LDC estimates from the two techniques with the non-isotopic techniques yielding higher estimates. Over the 32- day experiment, between 16.4 to 85.4% of the ag-lime C was released as CO2 with values being lower for the Piarco soil. The LDC in the CO2 was also significantly (P<0.05) lower for the poultry litter treatments comparison to the other organic amendments for the Piarco soil but not the Nariva soil. This effect may not have been as a result of an enhancement of the carbon sequestration potential of the ag-lime due to an elevation in soil microbial respiration since the LDC in the glucose-amended soils did not differ significantly from the no-amendment control soils.
Siècle(s) traité(s) : 21
Droits : CC-BY-NC-ND - Attribution - Pas d'utilisation commerciale - Pas de modification
Permalien : http://www.manioc.org/fichiers/V16308
V16308

Éditeur(s) : Université des Antilles Études caribéennes
Résumé : Le changement climatique et le développement durable du tourisme représentent des enjeux majeurs pour l’avenir du tourisme dans plusieurs régions du monde, notamment aux Antilles françaises. Aussi, la présente étude se propose d’analyser et d’évaluer les effets économiques de la variation climatique sur le secteur touristique à la Guadeloupe et à la Martinique, pour quatre raisons essentielles : (a) le secteur du tourisme et les petites économies insulaires qui en dépendent, comme celles de la Guadeloupe et de la Martinique, sont fortement sensibles à la variabilité et au changement du climat. (b) la vulnérabilité intrinsèque de ces petites destinations et de leurs infrastructures à l’élévation du niveau de la mer et aux évènements climatiques extrêmes (cyclones, inondations, sécheresse), (c) la haute dépendance de l’industrie touristique régionale à l’utilisation des énergies fossiles, (d) enfin, en raison du fait qu’aucune évaluation économique chiffrée n’a été produite à ce jour sur les effets économiques de la la variation climatique sur le secteur touristique à la Guadeloupe et à la Martinique. Par conséquent, il importe de cerner dans ces deux régions les conséquences possibles de ce changement au plan touristique et d’envisager le cas échéant des stratégies d’adaptation et d’atténuation. Ce faisant, cette étude se fixe quatre objectifs principaux : (a) examiner les facteurs qui influencent la demande et l’offre de tourisme aux Antilles Françaises ; (b) effectuer à l’aide d’un modèle de demande touristique, l’impact économique de ces facteurs sur le nombre d’arrivées ainsi que sur la dépense touristique dans ces régions ; (c) évaluer et projeter en termes de coût, les effets du changement climatique sur l’activité touristique ; et (d) proposer aux autorités locales, des stratégies d’adaptation et d’atténuation face au défi du changement climatique.L’évaluation de ces différents effets est abordée ici à l’aide d’un modèle structurel de base (MSB) et d’un modèle structurel général (MSG), inspirés tous deux des travaux de Harvey (1990) pour capter à l’aide d’un indice climato-touristique, les éléments du climat qui impactent l’activité touristique. Cet indice synthétique est calculé en se basant sur les données climatiques du passé selon deux scénarios climatiques proposés par le groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climat (GIEC) – un scénario pessimiste A2, et un scénario optimiste B2-. Les résultats issus de l’application de ces modèles montrent que les caractéristiques climato-touristiques de la Guadeloupe et de la Martinique subiront vraisemblablement un déclin à long terme, et devraient au plan économique impacter négativement le secteur touristique de ces destinations, se traduisant par des pertes à la fois d’attractivité et de chiffre d’affaires du secteur. Les pertes subies par le tourisme en raison du changement climatique s’élèveraient à l’horizon 2100, et selon le scénario A2, à 45 millions d’euros à la Guadeloupe soit 0,7% de son PIB 2004, et à 60 millions d’euros à la Martinique soit 0,8% de son PIB 2004.
Climate change and the tourism sustainable development are important challenges for tourism future trends of many countries, including the French West Indies. Therefore, this study provides an evaluation of the likely economic effects of climate change on tourism sector in Guadeloupe and Martinique, and identifies four reasons why these countries should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) Guadeloupe and Martinique are island destinations very sensitive to climate change; (b) their intrinsic vulnerability and their infrastructure to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); (c) the high dependence of their tourist industry on carbon-based fuels; and (d) up to date, no economic evaluation of climate change on tourism sector in Guadeloupe and Martinique is provided. Therefore, this study attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors on the economy of the French West Indies. There are four main objectives in this study. The first is to examine the factors that influence the demand and supply tourism in Guadeloupe and Martinique. The second is to forecast the impact of climate change to tourism arrivals until 2050 under two scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) – A2: pessimistic scenario and B2: optimistic scenario-. Third is to evaluate and forecast the cost of climate change to the tourism sector until 2100. The fourth is to recommend to authorities the adaptation and mitigation strategies that can be undertaken by the tourism sector to French West Indies to address climate change.Following Harvey (1990), a Basic Structural Model (BSM) and a General structural Model (GSM), are employed to model tourist arrivals to Martinique. A tourism climatic index (TCI) conceptualized by Mieczkowski (1985) is used in this model to capture the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience. The results suggest that under both scenarios, the island’s key tourism climatic features will probably decline, and therefore, negatively impact on the destination experience of visitors. Tourism losses due to climate change are projected in 2100 to 45 millions euros in Guadeloupe, or 0.7% of its GDP, and to 60 millions euros in Martinique, or 0,8% of its GDP.
Guadeloupe
Martinique

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
urn:doi:10.4000/etudescaribeennes.6750
http://journals.openedition.org/etudescaribeennes/6750

Éditeur(s) : CIMMYT CIMMYT ( Mexico )
Résumé : (Bibliography) Includes bibliographical references (p. 16-17).
(Statement of Responsibility) A. Dewi Hartkamp ... et al..
Mexico
Jalisco
Mexico
Jalisco

45569667
1405-7484 ;

Éditeur(s) : University of Florida University of Florida
Résumé : "An IAI Initial Science Program. (ISP)-III Project." "This summary is an abridged, general audience version of a more technical report submitted to the IAI in October 2000."
(Funding) Electronic resources created as part of a prototype UF Institutional Repository and Faculty Papers project by the University of Florida.
Caribbean
North America -- United States of America -- Florida
Argentina
Costa Rica
Mexico

Droits : All rights reserved, Board of Trustees of the University of Florida
60338631

Éditeur(s) : INRA : Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique Université des Antilles. Service commun de la documentation University of Suriname
Extrait de : 52e congrès annuel de la Société caribéenne des plantes alimentaires / 52nd annual meeting of the Caribbean food crops society (CFCS), du 10 au 16 juillet 2016. INRA, CFCS
Description : Many rural areas in Suriname are lacking information on technology from extension agents from the government extension agency, and research institutes. Communication and informal voices of farmers are shared by media. As part of a baseline study conducted for the sixth operational strategic plan of the Small Grants Programme in Suriname, four communities were selected: Moengo, Pokigron, Nickerie, Sipaliwini and Para. The purpose of this study was to collect data from communities regarding problems related to climate change, agricultural innovation and landscape management. This qualitative study was done through the focus group method. Eight focus group meetings were organized and consisted of 8-15 participants each. The key questions were extracted from the SEPLS method (Socio-ecological Production Landscapes and Seascapes). The data was analyzed through the SWOT method. Based on the results, the communities have a good level of awareness about management of their landscapes. Improvement of agriculture management will be possible by access to innovative and new knowledge developed in and outside the community. Climate change is an important issue that the community already is aware of, they developed their own local strategy in resilience to this issue. Beaucoup de zones rurales au Surinam manquent d'information sur la technologie des agents de vulgarisation de l'agence d'extension de gouvernement, et des instituts de recherche. La communication et les voix informelles des agriculteurs sont partagées par media. En tant qu'élément d'une étude de ligne de base entreprise pour le sixième plan stratégique opérationnel du petit programme de concessions au Surinam, les quatre communautés ont été sélectionnées : Moengo, Pokigron, Nickerie, Sipaliwini et paragraphe. Le but de cette étude était de rassembler des données de communautés concernant des problèmes liés au changement climatique, à l'innovation agricole et à la gestion de paysage. Cette étude qualitative a été faite par la méthode de groupe cible. Huit réunions de groupe cible ont été organisées et se sont composées de 8-15 participants chacun. Les questions clé ont été extraites à partir de la méthode de SEPLS (des paysages et des paysages marins Socio-écologiques de production). Les données ont été analysées par la méthode de BÛCHEUR. Basé sur les résultats, les communautés ont un bon niveau de conscience au sujet de la gestion de leurs paysages. L'amélioration de la gestion d'agriculture sera possible par l'accès aux connaissances innovatrices et nouvelles développées à l'intérieur et à l'extérieur de la communauté. Le changement climatique est une question importante que la communauté a pris en compte et développé sa propre stratégie locale dans la résilience.
Siècle(s) traité(s) : 21
Droits : CC-BY-NC-ND - Attribution - Pas d'utilisation commerciale - Pas de modification
Permalien : http://www.manioc.org/fichiers/V16256
V16256

Éditeur(s) : Université de Brest
Résumé : The channel-lobe transition zone has been studied in two turbiditic systems: the Amazon channel-mouth lobe complex at the termination of the last eight channel-levee systems and the Neochannel termination, the last active channel of the Petit-Rhone turbidite system. - In the two cases, the internal geometry and stacking pattern of the deposits show a significant control of the configuration (size and shape) of the receiving basins, their morphology (gradients and subtle gradient changes), and their degree of confinement. - The Amazon and Petit-Rhone systems, with lobes built after the Last Glacial Maximum and the ensuing sea-level rise, evidence the major impact of external forcings (climatic events and eustatic variations) that induce variations in sediment fluxes delivered to the deep basin and therefore exert a control on channel-mouth lobes construction. The channel-mouth lobes of the Amazon and Petit-Rhone systems, even if they are located at great distances from the river mouths, at the termination of the turbidite systems and in areas characterised by subtle morphological variations, are both constrained by combined internal (accommodation and compensation) and external factors (post-glacial deconnection between the fluvial system and the deep basin).
La zone de transition chenal-levées/lobes a été étudiée dans 2 systèmes turbiditiques : le complexe de lobes à la terminaison des 8 derniers chenaux de l'éventail de l'Amazone et la terminaison du Néochenal, dernier chenal de l'éventail du Petit-Rhône. - Dans les deux cas, l'agencement des dépôts et leur évolution dans l'espace et le temps révèlent un fort contrôle de la configuration des réceptacles (taille et forme), de la morphologie des fonds (pentes et taux de changement des pentes) et du degré de confinement. - Les systèmes de l'Amazone et du Petit-Rhône, dont les lobes se sont construits à partir du Dernier Maximum Glaciaire et lors de la remontée du niveau marin qui a suivi, ont en outre permis de souligner l'impact majeur, sur la mise en place des lobes terminaux, de certains forçages externes (événements climatiques et variations eustatiques), qui déterminent les variations des flux sédimentaires arrivant au bassin. Ainsi, bien que situés à des distances considérables des sources fluviatiles et dans des zones distales où les variations de relief sont très ténues, les lobes terminaux de ces deux grands systèmes turbiditiques se sont révélés contraints à la fois par des processus internes (processus de compensation) et par des processus externes (déconnexion post-glaciaire du fleuve et du bassin).

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2008/these-6796.pdf
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/6796/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union (EGU)
Résumé : International audience
Pollen and clay mineralogical analyses of a Holocene sequence from Sebkha Boujmel (southern Tunisia) traces the climatic and environmental dynamics in the lower arid bioclimatic zone over the last 8000 years. During the Mid- to Late Holocene transition, between 8 and 3 ka, a succession of five wet/dry oscillations is recorded. An intense arid event occurs between 5.7 and 4.6 ka. This episode marks the onset of a long-term aridification trend with a progressive retreat of Mediterranean woody xerophytic vegetation and of grass steppes. It ends with the establishment of pre-desert ecosystems around 3 ka. The millennial-scale climate change recorded in the data from Sebkha Boujmel is consistent with records from the south and east Mediterranean, as well as with climatic records from the desert region for the end of the African Humid Period (AHP). Eight centennial climatic events are recorded at Sebkha Boujmel and these are contemporary with those recorded in the Mediterranean and in the Sahara. They indicate a clear coupling between the southern Mediterranean and the Sahara before 3 ka. The event at 4.2 ka is not evidenced and the link between events recorded in Sebkha Boujmel and the North Atlantic Cooling events is clearer from 3 ka onwards. These variations indicate the importance of climatic determinism in the structuring of landscapes, with the establishment of the arid climatic conditions of the Late Holocene. It is only from 3 ka onwards that the dynamic of plant associations is modified by both human activity and climatic variability. The climatic episodes identified during the historic period indicate strong regionalisation related to the differential impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) on the Mediterranean basin. The local human impact on regional ecosystems is recorded in the form of episodes of intensification of pastoral and/or agricultural activities. The development of olive production and of several taxa associated with agriculture attest to increasing sedentism among human populations during Classical Antiquity. The significant increase in Artemisia (wormwood) between 1.1 and 0.8 ka (850–1150 AD) is linked to intensive pastoral activity, associated with heightened interannual and/or seasonal climatic instability. A complete re-shaping of the landscape is recorded during the 20th century. The remarkable expansion of the olive tree, and the deterioration of regional ecosystems with the spread of desert species, is linked to recent local socio-economic changes in Tunisia.
ISSN: 1814-9324

hal-01319967
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01319967
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01319967/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01319967/file/cp-12-1339-2016.pdf
DOI : 10.5194/cp-12-1339-2016

Éditeur(s) : Springer
Résumé : We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.
Climate Dynamics (0930-7575) (Springer), 2013-05 , Vol. 40 , N. 9-10 , P. 2123-2165

Droits : The Author(s) 2013. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00138/24966/23079.pdf
DOI:10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00138/24966/

Résumé : Preliminary analysis of the impact of an environmental change on ichtyologic fauna marinates and fishing in Guyanese water enter within the framework of the program CHALOUPE (dynamic Change of the exploited marine biodiversity and the viability of the Fisheries) coordinated by Ifremer Cayenne and financed by the ANR (National Agency of Research). The study focuses on: -analysis temporal variations of various environmental parameters (sea surface temperature and salinity, the phenomenon El Niño) -fish physical characteristics (tolerances of temperature and salinity, maximum height, distribution…) - analysis of the unloadings per unit of effort of the inshore fishing and an economic analysis of the selling price of fish Data are found on data bases and are given by scientists. The statistical studies and the cartographic representations show that there is an increase in temperature of water in Guiana since the end of the Nineties. The model AquaMaps® simulates the potential consequences of this reheating on the fish distribution. Certain stocks of fishing are weakened. For the moment, if the composition of the captures of inshore fishing changes, that seems more due to a change of fishing strategy than due to an impact of the climatic change. In addition, the average value of the capture increased for reason commercial.
Les analyses de l’impact d’un changement environnemental sur la faune ichtyologique marine et la pêche dans les eaux guyanaises entrent dans le cadre du programme CHALOUPE (CHAngement gLObal, dynamiqUe de la biodiversité marine exploitée et de la viabilité des Pêcheries) coordonné par l’Ifremer Cayenne et financé par l’ANR (Agence Nationale de la Recherche). L’étude porte sur : -l’analyse des variations temporelles de différents paramètres environnementaux (température et salinité de surface des eaux, le phénomène El Niño) à l’échelle de quelques décennies -les caractéristiques physiques des poissons (tolérances de températures et de salinité (taille maximum, répartition…) ; -l’analyse des débarquements par unité d’effort de la pêche côtière depuis les années 70 ; -une analyse économique de la pêche ; Les données sont récoltées à partir de bases de données et au près de différents chercheurs. Les études statistiques et les représentations cartographiques démontrent qu’il y a bien une augmentation de température des eaux en Guyane depuis la fin des années 90. Le modèle statistique sous AquaMaps® permet de simuler les conséquences potentielles de ce réchauffement sur la répartition des poissons. Dans un tel contexte, certains stocks de pêche sont fragilisés. Pour le moment, si la composition des captures de la pêche côtière se modifie dans le même temps, cela semble plus du fait de changement de stratégie de pêche que du fait de l’impact du changement climatique. Par ailleurs, la valeur moyenne de la capture a augmenté pour des raisons commerciales.

Droits : 2006 Ifremer
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00077/18855/16429.pdf
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00077/18855/

Éditeur(s) : Université des Antilles Études caribéennes
Résumé : Comme dans d’autres régions du monde, la croissance démographique et l’accentuation des activités côtières au Canada entraînent une dégradation continue des écosystèmes et de la biodiversité. L’aménagement côtier contribue essentiellement à la vulnérabilité et à la détérioration des littoraux. Ce constat concerne le littoral acadien du Nouveau-Brunswick. Au-delà de ces pressions démographiques et de l’urbanisation sur les zones littorales, l'élévation du niveau marin et l'augmentation des températures (effets du changement et des variations climatiques) provoquent des impacts vérifiables : l’intensité des ondes de tempêtes, la dégradation des sols par l’érosion, etc. Ainsi, l’adaptation au changement climatique constitue un enjeu de taille pour la province du Nouveau-Brunswick. C’est pourquoi cet article propose d’étudier les impacts de ces changements auprès de deux régions côtières du littoral acadien et d’apprendre des expériences de chacun pour renforcer leur résilience. La recherche souhaite s’inscrire dans une nouvelle forme d’engagement communautaire qui prend en compte des aspects de la « gouvernance », de l’« aménagement du territoire » et de la « cohésion sociale ». L’article tente d’avoir une meilleure compréhension de l’enchâssement des aspects économiques et sociétaux dans les enjeux environnementaux.
As in other parts of the world, demographic growth and an increased use of coastal zones in Canada lead to a degradation of coastal ecosystems and a loss of biodiversity. Coastal development contributes in large part to the vulnerability and deterioration of coastal zones. This is very clearly seen in the case of the Acadian coast of New Brunswick. In addition to stresses from demographic growth and urbanization, the coastal zone is affected by sea level rise, temperature increases and other impacts of climate change such as increased climate variability, which lead to measurable effects such as an increase in storm intensity or increased coastal erosion. Thus, adaptation to climate change constitutes a major challenge for the province of New Brunswick. It is in this context that we propose to analyze the impacts of climate change in two sites on the Acadian coast and to profit from both experiences in order to increase the resilience of the communities through mutual learning. The research undertaken here aims at contributing to a new form of community engagement that takes “governance”, “land use planning” and “social cohesion” into account. The article aims at a better understanding of the interplay of social and economic aspects in this environmental problem.
Canada
Nouveau-Brunswick

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
urn:doi:10.4000/etudescaribeennes.6970
http://journals.openedition.org/etudescaribeennes/6970

Éditeur(s) : Elsevier
Résumé : Evidence has accumulated that climate variability influences the state and functioning of marine ecosystems. At the same time increasing pressure from exploitation and other human activities has been shown to impact exploited and non-exploited species and potentially modify ecosystem structure. There has been a tendency among marine scientists to pose the question as a dichotomy, i.e., whether (1) "natural" climate variability or (2) fishery exploitation bears the primary responsibility for population declines in fish populations and the associated ecosystem changes. However, effects of both climate and exploitation are probably substantially involved in most cases. More importantly, climate and exploitation interact in their effects, such that climate may cause failure in a fishery management scheme but that fishery exploitation may also disrupt the ability of a resource population to withstand, or adjust to, climate changes. Here, we review how exploitation, by altering the structure of populations and ecosystems, can modify their ability to respond to climate. The demographic effects of fishing (removal of large-old individuals) can have substantial consequences on the capacity of populations to buffer climate variability through various pathways (direct demographic effects, effects on migration, parental effects). In a similar way, selection of population sub-units within metapopulations may also lead to a reduction in the capacity of populations to withstand climate variability and change. At the ecosystem level, reduced complexity by elimination of species, such as might occur by fishing, may be destabilizing and could lead to reduced resilience to perturbations. Differential exploitation of marine resources could also promote increased turnover rates in marine ecosystems, which would exacerbate the effects of environmental changes. Overall (and despite the specificities of local situations) reduction in marine diversity at the individual, population and ecosystem levels will likely lead to a reduction in the resilience and an increase in the response of populations and ecosystems to future climate variability and change. Future management schemes will have to consider the structure and functioning of populations and ecosystems in a wider sense in order to maximise the ability of marine fauna to adapt to future climates. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Journal of Marine Systems (0924-7963) (Elsevier), 2010-02 , Vol. 79 , N. 3-4 , P. 403-417

Droits : 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2010/publication-7384.pdf
DOI:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.12.018
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/7384/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
The challenge is to implement research that can estimate the consequences ofclimate changes in terms of impact on terrestrial environments and resources.Emphasis should be placed on regions dependent on natural resources and forwhich demographic pressure is strong. Simulations obtained from climate modelprojections (using different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs))predict that the Mediterranean basin and its southern periphery are particularlyvulnerable to water resources and environmental impact (IPCC, AR5, 2013).An annual rainfall decrease by 30% is found for the projection period 2070-2099(IPCC, AR5, 2013) associated with a decrease in water resources by 30 to 50%(Milano, 2012). In addition, several studies using regional atmospheric modelsindicate an increase in the precipitation inter-annual variability with extremeevents and a spatial heterogeneous signature, superimposed on a decrease in thetotal precipitation amount (Giorgi and Lionello, 2008; Raible et al. 2010).Currently, regional climate projections are highly sensitive to the climate modelused. In particular, spatial resolution as well as local climate conditions seemto impact significantly on the simulations (Jacob et al. 2014).The Mediterranean region, at the interface between arid and temperate climateswith several mountainous areas, is a complex climate system affected by theinteractions between mid-latitude and sub-tropical processes. In this context,Morocco, located at the transition between a temperate climate to the North anda tropical climate to the south constitutes a key area for an impact and sensitivitystudy to global climate changes. The climate is influenced by the Atlantic Ocean,the Mediterranean Sea and the Sahara, together with a very steep orography inthe Atlas region. The precipitation distribution is therefore characterised by greatspatial variability, and exhibits a marked seasonality, a strong inter-annualvariability (Ouda et al. 2005) and in general a pronounced gradient from northto south and west to east. At a broader scale, Morocco is located on the subtropicalsubsidence path and between the Acores High and the Saharan Low (Agoussine,2003). Several studies have also identified strong links with inter-annualprecipitation variability and NAO index (Knippertz, 2003) as well as remoteclimate modes (Esper et al. 2007).Continental climate variability at a local/regional scale, if it is to be integratedin climate predictions, needs to be supported by long-term observation.Meteorological stations in Morocco provide climatic data mainly for the last40 years with only a few stations located in the mountainous region (Tramblayet al. 2012; 2013; Driouech et al. 2010). This climate database is also supportedby the IAEA network providing stations for which isotope tracers have beenapplied to daily/monthly rain and water vapour samples over 2 to 3 years between2000 and 2004. Besides the poor coverage of instrumented areas, lacustrinesystems can provide a climatic data set that offers access to short and long-termtime series of climate parameters when knowledge of modern lake water balanceis combined with lacustrine sedimentary-climate records. Lake sediment recordsideally provide high resolution climate/environmental information of the last10,000 years (Magny et al. 2013). This time interval (corresponding to theHolocene) is a key period to investigate short and long-term climate variabilityand to improve prediction in a warming climate.In this study we present an integrated approach focusing on a mountainous lake(Aguelmam Azigza). The modern lake system study is based on site monitoring(2012-2016) and available regional hydro-climatic data. These data show thatlake level changes during the instrumented period were mainly driven byprecipitation following the high inter-annual variability. These data are thencompared with accurately dated short sediment cores retrieved in the same lake.Micro-scale geochemical and sedimentological analyses of these sequencesenable us to identify various sedimentary facies that can be linked with periodsof high (low) lake levels over the past decades.
The Mediterranean Region under Climate ChangeLa méditerranée face au changement climatique

insu-01394690
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01394690
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01394690/document
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01394690/file/Vidaletal.2016-COP22-Chap1.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Public Library of Science
Résumé : International audience
Understanding the factors underlying the spatio-temporal distribution of infectious diseases provides useful information regarding their prevention and control. Dengue fever spatio-temporal patterns result from complex interactions between the virus, the host, and the vector. These interactions can be influenced by environmental conditions. Our objectives were to analyse dengue fever spatial distribution over New Caledonia during epidemic years, to identify some of the main underlying factors, and to predict the spatial evolution of dengue fever under changing climatic conditions, at the 2100 horizon. We used principal component analysis and support vector machines to analyse and model the influence of climate and socio-economic variables on the mean spatial distribution of 24,272 dengue cases reported from 1995 to 2012 in thirty-three communes of New Caledonia. We then modelled and estimated the future evolution of dengue incidence rates using a regional downscaling of future climate projections. The spatial distribution of dengue fever cases is highly heterogeneous. The variables most associated with this observed heterogeneity are the mean temperature, the mean number of people per premise, and the mean percentage of unemployed people, a variable highly correlated with people's way of life. Rainfall does not seem to play an important role in the spatial distribution of dengue cases during epidemics. By the end of the 21st century, if temperature increases by approximately 3°C, mean incidence rates during epidemics could double. In New Caledonia, a subtropical insular environment, both temperature and socio-economic conditions are influencing the spatial spread of dengue fever. Extension of this study to other countries worldwide should improve the knowledge about climate influence on dengue burden and about the complex interplay between different factors. This study presents a methodology that can be used as a step by step guide to model dengue spatial heterogeneity in other countries.
ISSN: 1935-2727

Droits : http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
pasteur-01247037
https://hal-riip.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-01247037
https://hal-riip.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-01247037/document
https://hal-riip.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-01247037/file/journal.pntd.0004211.pdf
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004211

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union (EGU)
Résumé : International audience
Holocene climate fluctuations and human activity since the Neolithic have shaped present-day Mediter-ranean environments. Separating anthropogenic effects from climatic impacts to better understand Mediterranean pale-oenvironmental changes over the last millennia remains a challenging issue. High-resolution pollen analyses were un-dertaken on two cores from the Palavasian lagoon system (Hérault, southern France). These records allow reconstruction of vegetation dynamics over the last 4500 years. Results are compared with climatic, historical and archeological archives. A long-term aridification trend is highlighted during the late Holocene, and three superimposed arid events are recorded at 4600–4300, 2800–2400 and 1300–1100 cal BP. These periods of high-frequency climate variability coincide in time with the rapid climatic events observed in the Atlantic Ocean (Bond et al., 2001). From the Bronze Age (4000 cal BP) to the end of the Iron Age (around 2000 cal BP), the spread of sclerophyllous taxa and loss of forest cover result from anthropogenic impact. Classical Antiquity is characterized by a major reforestation event related to the concentration of rural activity and populations in coastal plains leading to forest recovery in the mountains. A major regional deforestation occurred at the beginning of the High Middle Ages. Around 1000 cal BP, forest cover is minimal while the cover of olive, chestnut and walnut expands in relation to increasing human influence. The present-day vegetation dominated by Mediterranean shrubland and pines has been in existence since the beginning of the 20th century.
ISSN: 1814-9324

hal-01447627
https://hal-univ-tlse2.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01447627
https://hal-univ-tlse2.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01447627/document
https://hal-univ-tlse2.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01447627/file/Azuara%20et%20al%202015_cor.pdf
DOI : 10.5194/cp-11-1769-2015

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
Plio-Pleistocene diatomitic sequences in the Shamb paleo-lake (South Armenia, Lesser Caucasus) offer a rare opportunity to give new insights on the paleo-climate of Western Asia. We present an integrated palynological, 40Ar/39Ar geochronologic and magnetostratigraphic study for the most complete section in the sedimentary deposits of the Shamb paleo-lake. 40Ar/39Ar dating of two volcaniclastic layers provided ages of 1.24 ± 0.03 and 1.16 ± 0.02 Ma (2. Magnetostratigraphic data show that the entire Shamb section is of reversed polarity which, combined with 40Ar/39Ar dating, suggests that the entire section correlates with part of the Matuyama period (1.785-1.070 Ma). Pollen assemblages and macroremains diversity clearly show an alternation of glacial and interglacial phases. Age calibrations and accumulation rate extrapolation allow a direct correlation of climate changes with the global isotopic curve, and show that the Shamb section probably ranges from approximately 1.300 to 1.080 Ma (marine isotopic stages 40 to 31). The vegetation of the Lesser Caucasus developed in a mosaic pattern in a Pleistocene continental, mostly arid climate, comparable to the present-day climate. The observed vegetation changes record a dominant climate response to the obliquity orbital parameter, but the influence of precession could not be established from the Shamb data. Pollen and macroflora both indicate that glacial periods were cold and dry and that interglacials were warm with local humidity. The early Pleistocene climatic model for Western Asia is thus similar to the climatic model for the Mediterranean area.
ISSN: 0012-821X

hal-00470353
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00470353
DOI : 10.1016/j.epsl.2010.01.007

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Royal Society, The
Résumé : International audience
Many studies have focused on the impacts of climate change on biological assemblages, yet little is known about how climate interacts with other major anthropogenic influences on biodiversity, such as habitat disturbance. Using a unique global database of 1128 local ant assemblages , we examined whether climate mediates the effects of habitat disturbance on assemblage structure at a global scale. Species richness and evenness were associated positively with temperature, and negatively with disturbance. However, the interaction among temperature, precipitation and disturbance shaped species richness and evenness. The effect was manifested through a failure of species richness to increase substantially with temperature in transformed habitats at low precipitation. At low precipitation levels, evenness increased with temperature in undisturbed sites, peaked at medium temperatures in disturbed sites and remained low in transformed sites. In warmer climates with lower rainfall, the effects of increasing disturbance on species richness and evenness were akin to decreases in temperature of up to 98C. Anthropogenic disturbance and ongoing climate change may interact in complicated ways to shape the structure of assemblages, with hot, arid environments likely to be at greatest risk.
ISSN: 0962-8452

hal-01323255
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01323255
DOI : 10.1098/rspb.2015.0418

Éditeur(s) : Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh
Résumé : From 10 to 8 ka BP (thousand years before present), paleoclimate records show an atmospheric and oceanic cooling in the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. During this interval, temperatures estimated from proxy data decrease by 0.8 degrees C over Antarctica and 1.2 degrees C over the Southern Ocean. In order to study the causes of this cooling, simulations covering the early Holocene have been performed with the climate model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM constrained to follow the signal recorded in climate proxies using a data assimilation method based on a particle filtering approach. The selected proxies represent oceanic and atmospheric surface temperature in the Southern Hemisphere derived from terrestrial, marine and glaciological records. Two mechanisms previously suggested to explain the 10-8 ka BP cooling pattern are investigated using the data assimilation approach in our model. The first hypothesis is a change in atmospheric circulation, and the second one is a cooling of the sea surface temperature in the Southern Ocean, driven in our experimental setup by the impact of an increased West Antarctic melting rate on ocean circulation. For the atmosphere hypothesis, the climate state obtained by data assimilation produces a modification of the meridional atmospheric circulation leading to a 0.5 degrees C Antarctic cooling from 10 to 8 ka BP compared to the simulation without data assimilation, without congruent cooling of the atmospheric and sea surface temperature in the Southern Ocean. For the ocean hypothesis, the increased West Antarctic freshwater flux constrainted by data assimilation (+100 mSv from 10 to 8 ka BP) leads to an oceanic cooling of 0.7 degrees C and a strengthening of Southern Hemisphere westerlies (+6 %). Thus, according to our experiments, the observed cooling in Antarctic and the Southern Ocean proxy records can only be reconciled with the reconstructions by the combination of a modified atmospheric circulation and an enhanced freshwater flux.
Climate Of The Past (1814-9324) (Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh), 2013 , Vol. 9 , N. 2 , P. 887-901

Droits : Author(s) 2013. CC Attribution 3.0 License.
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00181/29203/27584.pdf
DOI:10.5194/cp-9-887-2013
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00181/29203/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD University of Uludag
Résumé : International audience
The aim of this study was to compare the core temperature (TC) and markers of hydration status in athletes performing a half Ironman triathlon race in hot and humid conditions (27.2 ± 0.5°C, relative humidity was 80 ± 2%). Before and immediately after the 2012 Guadeloupe half Ironman triathlon, body mass and urine osmolarity (mean ± SD) were measured in 19 well-trained male triathletes. TC was measured before and after the race, and at each transition during the event, using an ingestible pill telemetry system. Ambient temperature and heart rate (HR) were measured throughout the race. Mean ± SD performance time was 331 ± 36 minutes and HR was 147 ± 16 beats·min-1. Wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) averaged 25.4 ± 1.0°C and ocean temperature was 29.5°C. The average TC at the beginning of the race (TC1) was 37.1 ± 0.7°C; it was 37.8 ± 0.9°C after swimming (TC2), 37.8 ± 1.0°C after cycling (TC3), and (TC4) 38.4 ± 0.7°C after running. Body mass significantly declined during the race by 3.7 ± 1.9 kg (4.8 ± 2.4%; p < 0.05), whereas urine osmolarity significantly increased from 491.6 ± 300.6 to 557.9 ± 207.9 mosm·L-1 (p < 0.05). Changes in body mass were not related to finishing TC or urine osmolarity. Ad libitum fluid intake appears applicable to athletes acclimatized to tropical climate, when performing a half Ironman triathlon in a warm and humid environment.
ISSN: 1303-2968

hal-01136698
https://hal.univ-antilles.fr/hal-01136698
https://hal.univ-antilles.fr/hal-01136698/document
https://hal.univ-antilles.fr/hal-01136698/file/Baillot%2C%20Hue%20-%202015%20-%20Hydration%20and%20Thermoregulation%20during%20a%20Half-Ironman%20Performed%20in%20Tropical%20Climate.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : International audience
Coral bleaching events threaten coral reef habitats globally and cause severe declines of local biodiversity and productivity.Related to high sea surface temperatures (SST), bleaching events are expected to increase as a consequenceof future global warming. However, response to climate change is still uncertain as future low-latitude climatic conditionshave no present-day analogue. Sea surface temperatures during the Eocene epoch were warmer than forecastedchanges for the coming century, and distributions of corals during the Eocene may help to inform models forecastingthe future of coral reefs. We coupled contemporary and Eocene coral occurrences with information on their respectiveclimatic conditions to model the thermal niche of coral reefs and its potential response to projected climate change.We found that under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the global suitability for coral reefs may increase up to 16%by 2100, mostly due to improved suitability of higher latitudes. In contrast, in its current range, coral reef suitabilitymay decrease up to 46% by 2100. Reduction in thermal suitability will be most severe in biodiversity hotspots, especiallyin the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Our results suggest that many contemporary hotspots for coral reefs,including those that have been refugia in the past, spatially mismatch with future suitable areas for coral reefs posingchallenges to conservation actions under climate change.
ISSN: 1354-1013

hal-01145464
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01145464
DOI : 10.1111/gcb.12868