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Downscaled projections of Caribbean coral bleaching that can inform conservation planning
Auteur(s) : van Hooidonk, Ruben Allen Maynard, Jeffrey Yanyun, Liu Sang-Ki, Lee
Auteurs secondaires : NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) ; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies ; University of Miami [Coral Gables] Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology ; Cornell University Centre de recherches insulaires et observatoire de l'environnement (CRIOBE) ; Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD) - École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Laboratoire d'Excellence CORAIL (LabEX CORAIL) ; Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD) - Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG) - École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS) - École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER) - Université de la Réunion (UR) - Université de la Polynésie Française (UPF) - Université de Nouvelle Calédonie - Institut d'écologie et environnement

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : International audience
Projections of climate change impacts on coral reefs produced at the coarse resolution (~1°) of Global Climate Models (GCMs) have informed debate but have not helped target local management actions. Here, projections of the onset of annual coral bleaching conditions in the Caribbean under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 are produced using an ensemble of 33 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 models and via dynamical and statistical downscaling. A high-resolution (~11 km) regional ocean model (MOM4.1) is used for the dynamical downscaling. For statistical downscaling, sea surface temperature (SST) means and annual cycles in all the GCMs are replaced with observed data from the ~4-km NOAA Pathfinder SST dataset. Spatial patterns in all three projections are broadly similar ; the average year for the onset of annual severe bleaching is 2040–2043 for all projections. However, downscaled projections show many locations where the onset of annual severe bleaching (ASB) varies 10 or more years within a single GCM grid cell. Managers in locations where this applies (e.g., Florida, Turks and Caicos, Puerto Rico, and the Domini-can Republic, among others) can identify locations that represent relative albeit temporary refugia. Both downscaled projections are different for the Bahamas compared to the GCM projections. The dynamically downscaled projections suggest an earlier onset of ASB linked to projected changes in regional currents, a feature not resolved in GCMs. This result demonstrates the value of dynamical downscaling for this application and means statistically downscaled projections have to be interpreted with caution. However, aside from west of Andros Island, the projections for the two types of downscaling are mostly aligned; projected onset of ASB is within AE10 years for 72% of the reef locations.
ISSN: 1354-1013

Droits : http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/
hal-01223492
https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01223492
https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01223492/document
https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01223492/file/Hooidonk_et_al-2015-Global_Change_Biology.pdf
DOI : 10.1111/gcb.12901

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