Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Springer Verlag
Résumé : International audience
Seasonal climate forecasts mainly rely on the atmospheric sensitivity to its lower boundary conditions and on their own predictability. Besides sea surface temperature (SST), soil moisture (SM) may be an additional source of climate predictability particularly during boreal summer in the mid-latitudes. In this work, we investigate the role of SM initial conditions on near-surface climate predictability during ten boreal summer seasons using three complementary ensembles of AMIP-type simulations performed with the Arpège-Climat atmospheric general circulation model. First we have conducted an assessment of the SM predictability itself through a comparison of simple empirical SM models with Arpège-Climat. The statistical and dynamical models reveal similar SM prediction skill patterns but the Arpège-Climat reaches higher scores suggesting that it is at least suitable to explore the influence of SM initialization on atmospheric predictability. Then we evaluate the relationships between SM predictability and some near surface atmospheric predictability. While SM initialization obviously improves the predictability of land surface evaporation, it has no systematic influence on the precipitation and near surface temperature skills. Nevertheless, the summer hindcast skill is clearly improved during specific years and over certain regions (mainly north America and eastern Europe in the Arpège-Climat model), when and where the SM forcing is sufficiently widespread and strong. In this case, a significant impact is also found on the occurrence of heat waves and heavy rains, whose predictability at the seasonal timescale is a crucial challenge for years to come.
ISSN: 0930-7575

meteo-00346948
https://hal-meteofrance.archives-ouvertes.fr/meteo-00346948
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-008-0375-9

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
During the last decade, the interaction of deep processes in the lithosphere and mantle with surface processes (erosion, climate, sea-level, subsidence, glacio-isostatic readjustment) has been the subject of heated discussion. The use of a multidisciplinary approach linking geology, geophysics, geodesy, modelling, and geotechnology has led to the awareness of coupled deep and surface processes. Deep earth dynamics (topography, erosion, tectonics) are strongly connected to natural hazards such as earthquakes, landslides, and tsunamis; sedimentary mass transfers have important consequences on isostatic movements and on georesources, geothermal energy repartitions. The ability to read and understand the link between deep Earth dynamics and surface processes has therefore important societal impacts. Ground-truthing at carefully-selected sites of investigation is imperative to better understand these connections.Due to its youth (<30 Ma) and its subsidence history, the almost land-locked Gulf of Lion–Sardinia continental margins system provides a unique record of sedimentary deposition from the Miocene to present. Due to its high subsidence rate, palaeoclimatic variations, tectonic events and vertical evolution are all recorded here at very high resolution. The late Miocene isolation and desiccation of the Mediterranean, the youngest and most catastrophic event, the Messinian Salinity Crisis (MSC), induced drastic changes in marine environments: widespread deposition of evaporite (gypsum, anhydrite and halite) in the central basin, and intense subaerial erosion along its periphery. These extraordinary mass transfers from land to sea induced strong isostatic re-adjustments that are archived in the sedimentary record and represent a window to the lithospheric rheology and the deep processes.The GOLD (Gulf of Lion Drilling) project, proposes to explore this unique sedimentary record as well as the nature of the deep crustal structure, providing valuable information about the mechanisms underlying vertical motions in basins and their margins.
ISSN: 0264-8172

insu-01197393
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01197393
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01197393/document
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01197393/file/Rabineau%20et%20al.-final-MPG2014_REVISED-FINAL-No-Marked_FINAL%2BFigures.pdf
DOI : 10.1016/j.marpetgeo.2015.03.018

Éditeur(s) : Springer
Résumé : While it is well known that the ocean is one of the most important component of the climate system, with a heat capacity 1,100 times greater than the atmosphere, the ocean is also the primary reservoir for freshwater transport to the atmosphere and largest component of the global water cycle. Two new satellite sensors, the ESA Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and the NASA Aquarius SAC-D missions, are now providing the first space-borne measurements of the sea surface salinity (SSS). In this paper, we present examples demonstrating how SMOS-derived SSS data are being used to better characterize key land–ocean and atmosphere–ocean interaction processes that occur within the marine hydrological cycle. In particular, SMOS with its ocean mapping capability provides observations across the world’s largest tropical ocean fresh pool regions, and we discuss from intraseasonal to interannual precipitation impacts as well as large-scale river runoff from the Amazon–Orinoco and Congo rivers and its offshore advection. Synergistic multi-satellite analyses of these new surface salinity data sets combined with sea surface temperature, dynamical height and currents from altimetry, surface wind, ocean color, rainfall estimates, and in situ observations are shown to yield new freshwater budget insight. Finally, SSS observations from the SMOS and Aquarius/SAC-D sensors are combined to examine the response of the upper ocean to tropical cyclone passage including the potential role that a freshwater-induced upper ocean barrier layer may play in modulating surface cooling and enthalpy flux in tropical cyclone track regions.
Surveys In Geophysics (0169-3298) (Springer), 2014-05 , Vol. 35 , N. 3 , P. 681-722

Droits : Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00152/26334/24430.pdf
DOI:10.1007/s10712-013-9244-0
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00152/26334/

Éditeur(s) : Springer
Résumé : We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.
Climate Dynamics (0930-7575) (Springer), 2013-05 , Vol. 40 , N. 9-10 , P. 2123-2165

Droits : The Author(s) 2013. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00138/24966/23079.pdf
DOI:10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00138/24966/