Éditeur(s) : Ecole nationale supérieure agronomique de Rennes
Résumé : Describe and gain understanding on fluctuations in animal population over time and space is a central goal of population ecology. This is also crucial to ensure the sustainable management of exploited resources, particularly those with complex population dynamics such as the bluefin tuna. The goal of this work is to collect bluefin tuna catches from the ancestral Mediterranean and Atlantic trap fisheries to (i) characterise long-term fluctuations in bluefin tuna population migrating in the Mediterranean, (ii) analyse their causes et (iii) assess their implications for fisheries management. The bluefin tuna main biological and ecological characteristics are first detailed. Then, the first part presents the trap fishery, and the process of collect and validation of the historical catches. This leads to develop a data base of 54 time-series more than 20 years long, the longest ones spanning about four centuries. Mean historical catches were around 15 000 tons/year ([7 000;25 000]). Time-series are analysed in a second part. Temporal variability of trap catches may be decomposed in three components: 100-year-long periodic fluctuations, 20-year cycles and inter-annual variations. These medium- to long-term fluctuations, representing more than 50% of the variability in the time-series, were synchronous all around the western Mediterranean and adjacent North Atlantic. In contrast, short-term variability was synchronous at a local scale only. It is argued that long-term fluctuations in trap catches could be considered as a proxy for those in abundance, and a synthetic time-series is computed to depict them. Biological and ecological processes that could cause such long-term fluctuations are discussed in a third part. We tested whether long-term fluctuations in Atlantic bluefin tuna might be related to large-scale environmental changes, using long time-series of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Length of the Day index (LOD, a proxy of the atmospheric circulation index ACI) and the temperature. Spectral analyses of trap catches, LOD and temperature displayed similar spectra with peak at low frequency, whereas those of the NAO exhibited a broad band spectrum. Regression analyses and tests of correlation did not reveal any clear relationship between trap catches on the one hand and NAO and LOD on the other hand. In contrast, long-term fluctuations in trap catches appear to be negatively and significantly related to long-term trends in temperature. Underlying processes that could explain such a relationship are discussed, with special focus on changes in migration patterns. Finally, implications of such fluctuations in term of fisheries management are discussed in a fourth part. A simulation framework, in which a simulated population dynamics model is coupled with a VPA, is built to test the pertinence of the diagnostic of stock assessment according to different scenarios on fluctuations origins and population status. In the hypothesis of fluctuations linked to variations in the recruitment, VPA appears able to reconstruct the fluctuations but the predictions may be biased if natural fluctuations are not taking into account. In the hypothesis of fluctuations linked to changes in migration pattern, VPA is not able to reconstruct the population dynamics. In a precautionary approach, quotas which follow may be unsuitable in the best case, at worst dangerous if they are defined in comparison with a reference point. The concept of cible reference points, fixe and unique over time, appears not relevant for bluefin tuna; estimate trajectory reference pertinent may prove to be more pertinent.
Décrire et comprendre les fluctuations spatio-temporelles des espèces animales constituent les enjeux majeurs de l'écologie. La question est également cruciale pour réussir la gestion durable des ressources exploitées, en particulier celle du thon rouge, grand pélagique migrateur à la dynamique complexe. L'objectif de ce travail est de collecter les captures historiques de thon rouge par les madragues méditerranéennes et proche atlantiques pour (i) caractériser les fluctuations à long terme de la population migrante en Méditerranée, (ii) étudier leur déterminisme et (iii) évaluer leurs implications en terme de gestion des pêcheries. Après avoir décrit les principales caractéristiques biologiques et écologiques du thon rouge, la première partie présente la pêcherie à la madrague, puis le processus de collecte et de validation des données historiques de captures. Ce dernier conduit à la mise en place d'une base de données de 54 séries de plus de 20 ans, dont les plus longues s'étendent sur près de 4 siècles. Les productions historiques sont estimées à environ 15 000 tonnes/an ([7 000;25 000]). Les séries historiques de captures sont analysées dans la seconde partie. Leur variabilité temporelle peut être décomposée en trois composantes : de larges cycles pseudo-séculaires, des variations périodiques d'une vingtaine d'années et des fluctuations inter-annuelles. Les fluctuations à moyen et long terme, expliquant plus de la moitié de la variance des séries, sont synchrones à l'échelle du bassin méditerranéen occidental et du proche Atlantique. La variabilité inter-annuelle, en revanche, n'est synchrone qu'à une échelle locale. On montre finalement que les fluctuations à long terme des captures peuvent être considérées comme de bons indices des tendances des abondances de la population de thons rouges migrants en Méditerranée. Une série synthétique est construite pour les décrire. Les processus biologiques et écologiques susceptibles d'être à l'origine de ces fluctuations sont discutés dans la troisième partie. L'hypothèse d'un forçage environnemental à grande échelle est testée en utilisant des indices à long terme de l'Oscillation Nord Atlantique (NAO), de la longueur du jour (LOD, un indicateur de l'indice de circulation atmosphérique ACI) et de la température. Les analyses spectrales sur les séries de captures, du LOD et des températures révèlent des spectres similaires, avec un pic sur les basses fréquences, alors que celles sur le NAO conduisent à une large bande spectrale. Les régressions et les tests de corrélations ne montrent aucune relation significative entre les captures par les madragues et le NAO et le LOD. En revanche, les fluctuations à long terme des captures apparaissent significativement et négativement corrélées avec les fluctuations à long terme des températures. Les processus sous-jacents susceptibles d'expliquer une telle relation, en particulier des changements migratoires, sont discutés. Finalement, les implications des fluctuations pour la gestion de la pêcherie sont discutées dans une quatrième partie. Un cadre de simulation, couplant un modèle de dynamique de population à une VPA, est élaboré pour tester la pertinence des diagnostics d'évaluation de stock selon différents scénarios d'origine des fluctuations et d'état de la population. Dans l'hypothèse de fluctuations liées à des variations du recrutement, la VPA apparaît capable de reconstruire les fluctuations mais les prédictions sont biaisées lorsqu'il n'est pas tenu compte des fluctuations naturelles du stock. Dans l'hypothèse de fluctuations liées à des changements migratoires, la VPA est alors incapable de reproduire la dynamique de la population. Dans une approche de précaution, les quotas qui en découlent peuvent se révéler au mieux inappropriés, au pire dangereux s'ils sont définis par rapport à un point de référence. Ce concept de point cible, fixe et unique dans le temps, apparaît inapproprié pour le thon rouge ; estimer des "trajectoires de référence" serait sans doute plus pertinent.

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2003/these-65.pdf
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/65/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
We show how to introduce the Value at Risk (VaR) concept in the analysis of the adaptation of the shape of a soft bed to a flow knowing the Probability Density Function (PDF) of the responses of the shape to flow perturbations (bed receptivity). Our aim is to quantify our confidence on simulation scenarios by an available morphodynamic model for the shape. The approach permits to perform this task at low complexity as it does not require any sampling of the bed receptivity parameter space. The paper goes beyond stationarity for the variability of the bed receptivity by linking its dynamics to the bottom morphodynamics through an original transport equation for the local bed receptivity standard deviation. The approach has been applied to the analysis of bed morphodynamics based on minimization principles. The results show the importance of including uncertainty information during the coupling and not only eventually through simple margins on the results.
ISSN: 0045-7930

hal-01054937
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01054937
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01054937/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01054937/file/paper_var_litto.pdf
DOI : 10.1016/j.compfluid.2013.10.021

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : "Tectonically emplaced" mantle rocks include subcontinental, suboceanic, and subarc mantle rocks that were tectonically exhumed from the upper mantle and occur:(i) as dispersed ultramafic bodies, a few meters to kilometers in size, in suture zones and mountain belts (i.e., the "alpine," or "orogenic" peridotite massifs - De Roever (1957), Thayer (1960), Den Tex (1969));(ii) as the lower ultramafic section of large (tens of kilometers) ophiolite or island arc complexes, obducted on continental margins (e.g., the Oman Ophiolite and the Kohistan Arc Complex - Coleman (1971), Boudier and Coleman (1981), Burg et al. (1998));(iii) exhumed above the sea level in ocean basins (e.g., Zabargad Island in the Red Sea, St. Paul's islets in the Atlantic and Macquarie Island in the southwestern Pacific - Tilley (1947), Melson et al. (1967), Varne and Rubenach (1972), Bonatti et al. (1981)).The "abyssal peridotites" are samples from the oceanic mantle that were dredged on the ocean floor, or recovered from drill cores (e.g., Bonatti et al., 1974; Prinz et al., 1976; Hamlyn and Bonatti, 1980).Altogether, tectonically emplaced and abyssal mantle rocks provide insights into upper mantle compositions and processes that are complementary to the information conveyed by mantle xenoliths (See Chapter 2.05). They provide coverage to vast regions of the Earth's upper mantle that are sparsely sampled by mantle xenoliths, particularly in the ocean basins and beneath passive continental margins, back-arc basins, and oceanic island arcs.Compared with mantle xenoliths, a disadvantage of some tectonically emplaced mantle rocks for representing mantle compositions is that their original geodynamic setting is not exactly known and their significance is sometimes a subject of speculation. For instance, the provenance of orogenic lherzolite massifs (subcontinental lithosphere versus upwelling asthenosphere) is still debated (Menzies and Dupuy, 1991, and references herein), as is the original setting of ophiolites (mid-ocean ridges versus supra-subduction settings - e.g., Nicolas, 1989). In addition, the mantle structures and mineralogical compositions of tectonically emplaced mantle rocks may be obscured by deformation and metamorphic recrystallization during shallow upwelling, exhumation, and tectonic emplacement. Metamorphic processes range from high-temperature recrystallization in the stability field of plagioclase peridotites ( Rampone et al., 1993) to complete serpentinization (e.g., Burkhard and O'Neill, 1988). Some garnet peridotites record even more complex evolutions. They were first buried to, at least, the stability field of garnet peridotites, and, in some cases to greater than 150 km depths ( Dobrzhinetskaya et al., 1996; Green et al., 1997; Liou, 1999). Then, they were exhumed to the surface, dragged by buoyant crustal rocks ( Brueckner and Medaris, 2000).Alternatively, several peridotite massifs are sufficiently well preserved to allow the observation of structural relationships between mantle lithologies that are larger than the sampling scale of mantle xenoliths. It is possible in these massifs to evaluate the scale of mantle heterogeneities and the relative timing of mantle processes such as vein injection, melt-rock reaction, deformation, etc... Detailed studies of orogenic and ophiolitic peridotites on centimeter- to kilometer-scale provide invaluable insights into melt transfer mechanisms, such as melt flow in lithospheric vein conduits and wall-rock reactions (Bodinier et al., 1990), melt extraction from mantle sources via channeled porous flow ( Kelemen et al., 1995) or propagation of kilometer-scale melting fronts associated with thermalerosion of lithospheric mantle ( Lenoir et al., 2001). In contrast, mantle xenoliths may be used to infer either much smaller- or much larger-scale mantle heterogeneities, such as micro-inclusions in minerals ( Schiano and Clocchiatti, 1994) or lateral variations between lithospheric provinces ( O'Reilly et al., 2001).The abyssal peridotites are generally strongly affected by oceanic hydrothermal alteration. Most often, their whole-rock compositions are strongly modified and cannot be used straightforwardly to assess mantle compositions (e.g., Baker and Beckett, 1999). However, even in the worst cases the samples generally contain fresh, relic minerals (mainly clinopyroxene) that represent the only available direct information on the oceanic upper mantle in large ocean basins, away from hot-spot volcanic centers. In situ trace-element data on clinopyroxenes from abyssal peridotites provide constraints on melting processes at mid-ocean ridges (Johnson et al., 1990).In this chapter, we review the main inferences on upper mantle composition and heterogeneity that may be drawn from geochemical analyses of the major elements, lithophile trace elements, and Nd-Sr isotopes in tectonically emplaced and abyssal mantle rocks. In addition we emphasize important insights into the mechanisms of melt/fluid transfer that can be deduced from detailed studies of these mantle materials.
Treatise on Geochemistry Update12.04

hal-00407944
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00407944
DOI : 10.1016/B0-08-043751-6/02004-1