Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5 Auteur(s) : Dufresne, J-l. Foujols, M-a. Denvil, S. Caubel, A. Marti, O. Aumont, Olivier Balkanski, Y. Bekki, S. Éditeur(s) : Springer Résumé : We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes. Climate Dynamics (0930-7575) (Springer), 2013-05 , Vol. 40 , N. 9-10 , P. 2123-2165 Droits : The Author(s) 2013. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00138/24966/23079.pdf DOI:10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1 http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00138/24966/ | Partager Voir aussi Climate Climate change Climate projections Earth System Model CMIP5 CMIP3 Greenhouse gases Aerosols Carbon cycle Allowable emissions Télécharger |
On the evolution of the oceanic component of the IPSL climate models from CMIP3 to CMIP5: A mean state comparison Auteur(s) : Mignot, J. Swingedouw, D. Deshayes, Julie Marti, O. Talandier, Claude Seferian, R. Lengaigne, M. Madec, Éditeur(s) : Elsevier Sci Ltd Résumé : This study analyses the impact on the oceanic mean state of the evolution of the oceanic component (NEMO) of the climate model developed at Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL-CM), from the version IPSL-CM4, used for third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3), to IPSL-CM5A, used for CMIP5. Several modifications have been implemented between these two versions, in particular an interactive coupling with a biogeochemical module, a 3-band model for the penetration of the solar radiation, partial steps at the bottom of the ocean and a set of physical parameterisations to improve the representation of the impact of turbulent and tidal mixing. A set of forced and coupled experiments is used to single out the effect of each of these modifications and more generally the evolution of the oceanic component on the IPSL coupled models family. Major improvements are located in the Southern Ocean, where physical parameterisations such as partial steps and tidal mixing reinforce the barotropic transport of water mass, in particular in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current) and ensure a better representation of Antarctic bottom water masses. However, our analysis highlights that modifications, which substantially improve ocean dynamics in forced configuration, can yield or amplify biases in coupled configuration. In particular, the activation of radiative biophysical coupling between biogeochemical cycle and ocean dynamics results in a cooling of the ocean mean state. This illustrates the difficulty to improve and tune coupled climate models, given the large number of degrees of freedom and the potential compensating effects masking some biases. Ocean Modelling (1463-5003) (Elsevier Sci Ltd), 2013-12 , Vol. 72 , P. 167-184 Droits : 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00170/28102/26612.pdf DOI:10.1016/j.ocemod.2013.09.001 http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00170/28102/ | Partager |