Éditeur(s) : Elsevier Sci Ltd
Résumé : This study analyses the impact on the oceanic mean state of the evolution of the oceanic component (NEMO) of the climate model developed at Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL-CM), from the version IPSL-CM4, used for third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3), to IPSL-CM5A, used for CMIP5. Several modifications have been implemented between these two versions, in particular an interactive coupling with a biogeochemical module, a 3-band model for the penetration of the solar radiation, partial steps at the bottom of the ocean and a set of physical parameterisations to improve the representation of the impact of turbulent and tidal mixing. A set of forced and coupled experiments is used to single out the effect of each of these modifications and more generally the evolution of the oceanic component on the IPSL coupled models family. Major improvements are located in the Southern Ocean, where physical parameterisations such as partial steps and tidal mixing reinforce the barotropic transport of water mass, in particular in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current) and ensure a better representation of Antarctic bottom water masses. However, our analysis highlights that modifications, which substantially improve ocean dynamics in forced configuration, can yield or amplify biases in coupled configuration. In particular, the activation of radiative biophysical coupling between biogeochemical cycle and ocean dynamics results in a cooling of the ocean mean state. This illustrates the difficulty to improve and tune coupled climate models, given the large number of degrees of freedom and the potential compensating effects masking some biases.
Ocean Modelling (1463-5003) (Elsevier Sci Ltd), 2013-12 , Vol. 72 , P. 167-184

Droits : 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00170/28102/26612.pdf
DOI:10.1016/j.ocemod.2013.09.001
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00170/28102/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : International audience
Coral bleaching events threaten coral reef habitats globally and cause severe declines of local biodiversity and productivity.Related to high sea surface temperatures (SST), bleaching events are expected to increase as a consequenceof future global warming. However, response to climate change is still uncertain as future low-latitude climatic conditionshave no present-day analogue. Sea surface temperatures during the Eocene epoch were warmer than forecastedchanges for the coming century, and distributions of corals during the Eocene may help to inform models forecastingthe future of coral reefs. We coupled contemporary and Eocene coral occurrences with information on their respectiveclimatic conditions to model the thermal niche of coral reefs and its potential response to projected climate change.We found that under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the global suitability for coral reefs may increase up to 16%by 2100, mostly due to improved suitability of higher latitudes. In contrast, in its current range, coral reef suitabilitymay decrease up to 46% by 2100. Reduction in thermal suitability will be most severe in biodiversity hotspots, especiallyin the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Our results suggest that many contemporary hotspots for coral reefs,including those that have been refugia in the past, spatially mismatch with future suitable areas for coral reefs posingchallenges to conservation actions under climate change.
ISSN: 1354-1013

hal-01145464
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01145464
DOI : 10.1111/gcb.12868

Éditeur(s) : Springer
Résumé : We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.
Climate Dynamics (0930-7575) (Springer), 2013-05 , Vol. 40 , N. 9-10 , P. 2123-2165

Droits : The Author(s) 2013. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00138/24966/23079.pdf
DOI:10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00138/24966/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
Understanding long-term variability in the frequency of intense storm activity is important for assessing whether changes are controlled by climate evolution. Understanding this variability is also important for predicting present and future community vulnerability and economic loss. Our ability to make these assessments has been limited by the short (less than 50 years) instrument record of storm activity. Storm-induced deposits preserved in the sediments of coastal lagoons offer the opportunity to study the links between climatic conditions and storm activity on longer timescales. In this study, we present a record of these extreme climatic events that have occurred in the French Mediterrannean coast over the past 1500 years. The identification of these extreme events is based on the analysis of sediment cores from Gulf of Aigues-Mortes lagoons that contain a specific sedimentary and geochemical signature associated with intense storms.;Overwash deposits do not show any evidence of intense storm landfalls in the region for several hundred years prior to the late 17th century A.D. The apparent increase in intense storms around 250 years ago occurs during the latter half of the Little Ice Age, a time of lower continental surface temperatures. Comparison of the sediment record with palaeoclimate records indicates that this variability was probably modulated by atmospheric dynamics. The apparent increase of the superstorm activity during the latter half of the Little Ice Age was probably due to the thermal gradient increase leading to enhanced lower tropospheric baroclinicity over a large Central Atlantic/European domain and leading to a modification of the occurrence of extreme wind events along the French Mediterranean coast. A complete understanding of the relationship between climate fluctuations, storm activity, and the coastal response will be crucial to predicting the impacts of future climate change.
ISSN: 0031-0182

hal-00617525
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00617525
DOI : 10.1016/j.palaeo.2010.11.009