Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Public Library of Science
Résumé : International audience
Understanding the factors underlying the spatio-temporal distribution of infectious diseases provides useful information regarding their prevention and control. Dengue fever spatio-temporal patterns result from complex interactions between the virus, the host, and the vector. These interactions can be influenced by environmental conditions. Our objectives were to analyse dengue fever spatial distribution over New Caledonia during epidemic years, to identify some of the main underlying factors, and to predict the spatial evolution of dengue fever under changing climatic conditions, at the 2100 horizon. We used principal component analysis and support vector machines to analyse and model the influence of climate and socio-economic variables on the mean spatial distribution of 24,272 dengue cases reported from 1995 to 2012 in thirty-three communes of New Caledonia. We then modelled and estimated the future evolution of dengue incidence rates using a regional downscaling of future climate projections. The spatial distribution of dengue fever cases is highly heterogeneous. The variables most associated with this observed heterogeneity are the mean temperature, the mean number of people per premise, and the mean percentage of unemployed people, a variable highly correlated with people's way of life. Rainfall does not seem to play an important role in the spatial distribution of dengue cases during epidemics. By the end of the 21st century, if temperature increases by approximately 3°C, mean incidence rates during epidemics could double. In New Caledonia, a subtropical insular environment, both temperature and socio-economic conditions are influencing the spatial spread of dengue fever. Extension of this study to other countries worldwide should improve the knowledge about climate influence on dengue burden and about the complex interplay between different factors. This study presents a methodology that can be used as a step by step guide to model dengue spatial heterogeneity in other countries.
ISSN: 1935-2727

Droits : http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
pasteur-01247037
https://hal-riip.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-01247037
https://hal-riip.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-01247037/document
https://hal-riip.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-01247037/file/journal.pntd.0004211.pdf
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004211

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Institute of Physics: Open Access Journals
Résumé : International audience
The Amazon river basin has been recently affected by extreme climatic events, such as the exceptional drought of 2005, with significant impacts on human activities and ecosystems. In spite of the importance of monitoring freshwater stored and moving in such large river basins, only scarce measurements of river stages and discharges are available and the signatures of extreme drought conditions on surface freshwater dynamics at the basin scale are still poorly known. Here we use continuous multisatellite observations of inundation extent and water levels between 2003 and 2007 to monitor monthly variations of surface water storage at the basin scale. During the 2005 drought, the amount of water stored in the river and floodplains of the Amazon basin was ~130 km3 (~70%) below its 2003-7 average. This represents almost a half of the anomaly of minimum terrestrial water stored in the basin as estimated using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data.
Environmental Research Letters

hal-00779275
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00779275
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00779275/document
DOI : 10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044010

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : Satellite and in situ chlorophyll concentration data collected as part of VALidation HYperspectral of a BIOgeochemical model (ValHyBio), a PNTS-sponsored project dedicated to satellite ocean-colour imaging of the Southwest Pacific, are analyzed to describe chlorophyll variability in the Coral Sea, a vast oligotrophic region characterized by a deep chlorophyll maximum and blue waters of high transparency. Average chlorophyll concentrations estimated from MODIS-Aqua are very low (<0.2 mg m-3) except in the vicinity of main islands and coral reefs, where enrichment may occur due to upwelling or internal waves that bring nutrients to the euphotic zone from the deep part of the water column. During the summer season, blooms of cyanobacteria (Trichodesmium) develop in the surface waters and may form large slicks. The nitrogen fixed by these slicks is a potential source of new nitrogen later assimilated by picoplankton and the marine food chain. Coastal areas exhibit higher chlorophyll concentrations because of nutrient input from the land, as observed in 2008 around New Caledonia. In lagoon areas, the sea colour is influenced by turbidity and bathymetry, and the MODIS OC3 algorithm is inadequate, with a systematic overestimation of chlorophyll concentration in the New Caledonia lagoon. Improved bio-optical algorithms are needed for those turbid and shallow waters, to allow not only a better description of chlorophyll variability, but also evaluation of chlorophyll simulations by recently developed biogeochemical models.
of the 12th International Coral Reef Symposium, 18E
CAIRNS, Australia

hal-00746470
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00746470
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00746470/document

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Royal Society
Résumé : Coral bleaching events are predicted to occur more frequently in the coming decades with global warming. The susceptibility of corals to bleaching during thermal stress episodes depends on many factors, including the magnitude of thermal stress and irradiance. The interactions among these two factors, and in particular with ultra-violet radiation (UVR), the most harmful component of light, are more complex than assumed, and are not yet well understood. This paper explores the individual and combined effects of temperature and UVR on the metabolism of Acropora muricata, one of the most abundant coral species worldwide. Particulate and dissolved organic matter (POM/DOM) fluxes and organic matter (OM) degradation by the mucus-associated bacteria were also monitored in all conditions. The results show that UVR exposure exacerbated the temperature-induced bleaching, but did not affect OM fluxes, which were only altered by seawater warming. Temperature increase induced a shift from POM release and DOM uptake in healthy corals to POM uptake and DOM release in stressed ones. POM uptake was linked to a significant grazing of pico- and nanoplankton particles during the incubation, to fulfil the energetic requirements of A. muricata in the absence of autotrophy. Finally, OM degradation by mucus-associated bacterial activity was unaffected by UVR exposure, but significantly increased under high temperature. Altogether, our results demonstrate that seawater warming and UVR not only affect coral physiology, but also the way corals interact with the surrounding seawater, with potential consequences for coral reef biogeochemical cycles and food webs.
ISSN: 2046-6390

hal-01606454
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01606454
DOI : 10.1242/bio.026757
PRODINRA : 406580
PUBMED : 28811302