Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : International audience
In the mid-afternoon of 15 July 2007, during the Convective and Orographically induced Precipitation Study (COPS), in a very warm and dry environment, an isolated, short-lived, deep convective system developed over the southern Black Forest. Most of the high-resolution, convection-permitting models involved in COPS were unable to capture this event whereas the Meso-NH forecast was quite skilful. To assess the Meso-NH performance further, the model results were carefully checked against the various and numerous COPS observations. In full agreement with clear-air radar observations, model results underlined the triggering role of a low-level convergence line that developed in the lee of the Feldberg. The main departure from the observations was found to be in the low-level moisture fields, which appeared significantly moister in the model than in the observations and also slightly moister than in the other models. Sensitivity studies showed that this departure from the observations was strongly controlled by the initial surface moisture conditions. When the surface moisture was reduced by 20% or replaced by the value derived from a different analysis, the evolution of the planetary boundary layer was more accurately represented while the storm evolution was still correctly captured. These results demonstrate that the quality of the initial forecast cannot be ascribed to the moist bias of the model. It could therefore be hypothesized that the key parameters for a satisfactory forecast of this event lie more in the ability of the model to reproduce the dynamical forcing accurately than in the characteristics of the air-mass instability.
ISSN: 0035-9009

hal-00554400
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00554400
DOI : 10.1002/qj.710

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD American Association for the Advancement of Science
Résumé : International audience
Most eukaryotic organisms are arthropods. Yet, their diversity in rich terrestrial ecosystems is still unknown. Here we produce tangible estimates of the total species richness of arthropods in a tropical rainforest. Using a comprehensive range of structured protocols, we sampled the phylogenetic breadth of arthropod taxa from the soil to the forest canopy in the San Lorenzo forest, Panama. We collected 6144 arthropod species from 0.48 hectare and extrapolated total species richness to larger areas on the basis of competing models. The whole 6000-hectare forest reserve most likely sustains 25,000 arthropod species. Notably, just 1 hectare of rainforest yields >60% of the arthropod biodiversity held in the wider landscape. Models based on plant diversity fitted the accumulated species richness of both herbivore and nonherbivore taxa exceptionally well. This lends credence to global estimates of arthropod biodiversity developed from plant models.
ISSN: 0036-8075

hal-00817285
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00817285
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00817285/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00817285/file/1226727Revisedtext.pdf
DOI : 10.1126/science.1226727