Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : International audience
Within the framework of the international field campaign COPS (Convective and Orographically induced Precipitation Study), a large suite of state-of-the-art meteorological instrumentation was operated, partially combined for the first time. This includes networks of in situ and remote-sensing systems such as the Global Positioning System as well as a synergy of multi-wavelength passive and active remote-sensing instruments such as advanced radar and lidar systems. The COPS field phase was performed from 01 June to 31 August 2007 in a low-mountain area in southwestern Germany/eastern France covering the Vosges mountains, the Rhine valley and the Black Forest mountains. The collected dataset covers the entire evolution of convective precipitation events in complex terrain from their initiation, to their development and mature phase until their decay. Eighteen Intensive Observations Periods with 37 operation days and eight additional Special Observations Periods were performed, providing a comprehensive dataset covering different forcing conditions. In this article, an overview of the COPS scientific strategy, the field phase, and its first accomplishments is given. Highlights of the campaign are illustrated with several measurement examples. It is demonstrated that COPS research provides new insight into key processes leading to convection initiation and to the modification of precipitation by orography, in the improvement of quantitative precipitation forecasting by the assimilation of new observations, and in the performance of ensembles of convection-permitting models in complex terrain.
ISSN: 0035-9009

hal-00565513
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00565513
DOI : 10.1002/qj.752

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : International audience
In the mid-afternoon of 15 July 2007, during the Convective and Orographically induced Precipitation Study (COPS), in a very warm and dry environment, an isolated, short-lived, deep convective system developed over the southern Black Forest. Most of the high-resolution, convection-permitting models involved in COPS were unable to capture this event whereas the Meso-NH forecast was quite skilful. To assess the Meso-NH performance further, the model results were carefully checked against the various and numerous COPS observations. In full agreement with clear-air radar observations, model results underlined the triggering role of a low-level convergence line that developed in the lee of the Feldberg. The main departure from the observations was found to be in the low-level moisture fields, which appeared significantly moister in the model than in the observations and also slightly moister than in the other models. Sensitivity studies showed that this departure from the observations was strongly controlled by the initial surface moisture conditions. When the surface moisture was reduced by 20% or replaced by the value derived from a different analysis, the evolution of the planetary boundary layer was more accurately represented while the storm evolution was still correctly captured. These results demonstrate that the quality of the initial forecast cannot be ascribed to the moist bias of the model. It could therefore be hypothesized that the key parameters for a satisfactory forecast of this event lie more in the ability of the model to reproduce the dynamical forcing accurately than in the characteristics of the air-mass instability.
ISSN: 0035-9009

hal-00554400
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00554400
DOI : 10.1002/qj.710

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Météo et Climat
Résumé : International audience
The Convective and Orographically- induced Precipitation Study (COPS) is a coordinated international project, comprised of an observational field campaign and a research programme aiming to advance the quality of fore- casts of orographically-induced pre- cipitation by four-dimensional obser- vations and modelling of its life cycle. The COPS field campaign took place during June-July-August 2007 over eastern France and south-western Germany. Its main objective was to provide an unprecedented comprehen- sive set of in situ and remotely-sensed meteorological observations of the entire depth of the troposphere. After a short overview of the project, the paper focuses on the French contribution to the COPS field phase, describes the experimental setup and highlights some key observations.
L’étude des précipitations convectives induites par l’orographie (Cops selon l’acronyme anglais) est un projet inter- national coordonné qui comprend une campagne d’observations de terrain et un programme scientifique et qui vise à améliorer la qualité des prévisions des précipitations orographiques convectives à la fois par l’observation quadridimensionnelle et la modélisa- tion de leur cycle de vie. La campagne de terrain s’est déroulée en juin-juillet- août 2007 sur l’est de la France et le sud-ouest de l’Allemagne. Son objectif majeur était de fournir un jeu d’obser- vations météorologiques, in situ et à distance, aussi complet que possible et sur toute la profondeur de la colonne troposphérique.Après une brève revue d’ensemble du projet, l’article se concentre sur la contribution française à la campagne Cops, décrit le dispositif expérimental mis en œuvre et met en valeur quelques observations clés.
ISSN: 0026-1181

insu-01504075
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01504075
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01504075/document
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01504075/file/meteo_2009_64_32.pdf
DOI : 10.4267/2042/23632

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : International audience
The Convective and Orographically-driven Precipitation Study (COPS) carried out in summer 2007 over northeastern France and southwestern Germany provided a fairly comprehensive description of the low-troposphere water-vapour field, thanks in particular to the deployment of two airborne differential absorption lidar systems. These lidar observations were assimilated using the 3D-Var assimilation system of the Application of Research to Operations at MEsoscale (AROME) numerical weather prediction mesoscale model. The assimilation was carried out for the period 4 July-3 August by running a three-hour forward intermittent assimilation cycle. First, the impact of the lidar observations was assessed by comparing the analyses with a set of more than 200 independent soundings. The lidar observations were found to have a positive impact on the analyses by reducing the dry bias in the first 500 m above ground level and by diminishing the root-mean-square error by roughly 15% in the first km. Then the impact of the lidar observations was assessed by comparing the precipitation forecasts (obtained with and without the lidar observations for the period 15 July-2 August) with the gridded precipitation observations provided by the Vienna Enhanced Resolution Analysis. In general, the impact was found to be positive but not significant for the 24 h precipitation and positive and significant for the 6 h precipitation, with an improvement lasting up to 24 h. Some selected case studies show that the improvement was obtained through a better depiction of convection initiation or through a more accurate positioning of the precipitation systems
ISSN: 0035-9009

hal-00659497
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00659497
DOI : 10.1002/qj.1864

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
Tropical islands are characterized by thermal and orographical forcings which may generate microscale air mass circulations. The Lesser Antilles Arc includes small tropical islands (width lower than 50 km) where a total of one-and-a-half million people live. Air quality over this region is affected by anthropogenic and volcanic emissions, or saharan dust. To reduce risks for the population health, the atmospheric dispersion of emitted pollutants must be predicted. In this study, the dispersion of anthropogenic nitrogen oxides (NOx) is numerically modelled over the densely populated area of the Guadeloupe archipelago under weak trade winds, during a typical case of severe pollution. The main goal is to analyze how microscale resolutions affect air pollution in a small tropical island. Three resolutions of domain grid are selected: 1 km, 333 m and 111 m. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is used to produce real nested microscale meteorological fields. Then the weather outputs initialize the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (FLEXPART). The forward simulations of a power plant plume showed good ability to reproduce nocturnal peaks recorded by an urban air quality station. The increase in resolution resulted in an improvement of model sensitivity. The nesting to subkilometer grids helped to reduce an overestimation bias mainly because the LES domains better simulate the turbulent motions governing nocturnal flows. For peaks observed at two air quality stations, the backward sensitivity outputs identified realistic sources of NOx in the area. The increase in resolution produced a sharper inverse plume with a more accurate source area. This study showed the first application of the FLEXPART-WRF model to microscale resolutions. Overall, the coupling model WRF-LES-FLEXPART is useful to simulate the pollutant dispersion during a real case of calm wind regime over a complex terrain area. The forward and backward simulation results showed clearly that the subkilometer resolution of 333 m is necessary to reproduce realistic air pollution patterns in this case of short-range transport over a complex terrain area. Globally, this work contributes to enrich the sparsely documented domain of real nested microscale air pollution modelling. This study dealing with the determination of the proper resolution grid and proper turbulence scheme, is of significant interest to the near-source and complex terrain air quality research community.
ISSN: 1352-2310

hal-01349208
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01349208
DOI : 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.05.028

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
The challenge is to implement research that can estimate the consequences ofclimate changes in terms of impact on terrestrial environments and resources.Emphasis should be placed on regions dependent on natural resources and forwhich demographic pressure is strong. Simulations obtained from climate modelprojections (using different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs))predict that the Mediterranean basin and its southern periphery are particularlyvulnerable to water resources and environmental impact (IPCC, AR5, 2013).An annual rainfall decrease by 30% is found for the projection period 2070-2099(IPCC, AR5, 2013) associated with a decrease in water resources by 30 to 50%(Milano, 2012). In addition, several studies using regional atmospheric modelsindicate an increase in the precipitation inter-annual variability with extremeevents and a spatial heterogeneous signature, superimposed on a decrease in thetotal precipitation amount (Giorgi and Lionello, 2008; Raible et al. 2010).Currently, regional climate projections are highly sensitive to the climate modelused. In particular, spatial resolution as well as local climate conditions seemto impact significantly on the simulations (Jacob et al. 2014).The Mediterranean region, at the interface between arid and temperate climateswith several mountainous areas, is a complex climate system affected by theinteractions between mid-latitude and sub-tropical processes. In this context,Morocco, located at the transition between a temperate climate to the North anda tropical climate to the south constitutes a key area for an impact and sensitivitystudy to global climate changes. The climate is influenced by the Atlantic Ocean,the Mediterranean Sea and the Sahara, together with a very steep orography inthe Atlas region. The precipitation distribution is therefore characterised by greatspatial variability, and exhibits a marked seasonality, a strong inter-annualvariability (Ouda et al. 2005) and in general a pronounced gradient from northto south and west to east. At a broader scale, Morocco is located on the subtropicalsubsidence path and between the Acores High and the Saharan Low (Agoussine,2003). Several studies have also identified strong links with inter-annualprecipitation variability and NAO index (Knippertz, 2003) as well as remoteclimate modes (Esper et al. 2007).Continental climate variability at a local/regional scale, if it is to be integratedin climate predictions, needs to be supported by long-term observation.Meteorological stations in Morocco provide climatic data mainly for the last40 years with only a few stations located in the mountainous region (Tramblayet al. 2012; 2013; Driouech et al. 2010). This climate database is also supportedby the IAEA network providing stations for which isotope tracers have beenapplied to daily/monthly rain and water vapour samples over 2 to 3 years between2000 and 2004. Besides the poor coverage of instrumented areas, lacustrinesystems can provide a climatic data set that offers access to short and long-termtime series of climate parameters when knowledge of modern lake water balanceis combined with lacustrine sedimentary-climate records. Lake sediment recordsideally provide high resolution climate/environmental information of the last10,000 years (Magny et al. 2013). This time interval (corresponding to theHolocene) is a key period to investigate short and long-term climate variabilityand to improve prediction in a warming climate.In this study we present an integrated approach focusing on a mountainous lake(Aguelmam Azigza). The modern lake system study is based on site monitoring(2012-2016) and available regional hydro-climatic data. These data show thatlake level changes during the instrumented period were mainly driven byprecipitation following the high inter-annual variability. These data are thencompared with accurately dated short sediment cores retrieved in the same lake.Micro-scale geochemical and sedimentological analyses of these sequencesenable us to identify various sedimentary facies that can be linked with periodsof high (low) lake levels over the past decades.
The Mediterranean Region under Climate ChangeLa méditerranée face au changement climatique

insu-01394690
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01394690
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01394690/document
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01394690/file/Vidaletal.2016-COP22-Chap1.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : Meteorological phenomena with scales lower than hurricanes, from extreme rainfalls to pollution peaks, represent important environmental and health risks in the Caribbean. These examples show the need to downscale large-scale meteorological data to island-scale fields.The main goal of the present numerical study is the analysis of the meso- and micro-scale mechanisms inducing diurnal and nocturnal circulations in the Guadeloupe archipelago. The Weather Research and Forecasting model is employed. The micro-scale results are obtained by the coupling of the 1-km simulated fields and the Large Eddy Simulation method. Then, in order to analyze the dispersion of a pollutants plume, the micro-scale outputs with 111 m of resolution are used to force the lagrangian particles dispersion model FLEXPART. The study has been conducted for three real cases of weather types linked with strong, medium and weak trade winds.The results of simulations, validated with available observed data, permitted to simulate all local circulations, including a nocturnal counter-current flow which may induce a pollution peak in the urban area of Pointe-à-Pitre city.These works, which may be applied to other Lesser Antilles islands, suggest many environmental and energy applications.
Les phénomènes météorologiques d'échelles inférieures aux cyclones, depuis les pluies intenses, jusqu'à la dégradation de la qualité de l'air, ont pour les Caraïbes une importance aiguë en termes de risques naturels ou de risques sur la santé. Ces exemples attestent de la nécessité d'utiliser des méthodes de descentes d'échelle pour exploiter l'information météorologique de grande échelle et dériver des scénarios locaux appliqués aux territoires insulaires. Les travaux présentés ont pour principaux objectifs la simulation numérique et l'analyse des mécanismes méso- et micro-échelles qui induisent des circulations locales diurnes et nocturnes sur l'archipel de la Guadeloupe, à l'aide du modèle numérique météorologique Weather Research and Forecasting. Les résultats des simulations micro-échelles sont obtenus par le couplage des champs modélisés à 1 km avec la méthode Large Eddy Simulation. Les sorties micro-échelles, à 111 m, sont ensuite utilisées pour forcer le modèle lagrangien de dispersion de particules FLEXPART afin d'étudier la dispersion d'un panache de polluants. L'étude a été menée pour trois cas réels de situations météorologiques correspondant à des alizés soutenus, moyens et faibles. Les résultats des simulations, après validation, et comparaison aux données d'observation disponibles, permettent de restituer l'ensemble des circulations locales et soulignent l'existence d'un écoulement nocturne à contre courant susceptible d'induire une forte pollution sur la zone urbaine de Pointe-à-Pitre. Cette étude, transposable aux autres îles des petites Antilles, laisse envisager de nombreuses applications environnementales et énergétiques.
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01074600

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
tel-01074600
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01074600
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01074600/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01074600/file/rcece_thesis.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Berlin: A. Asher & Co.
Résumé : International audience
In this work, we compare IASI-retrieved vertical water vapour profiles and related precipitable water over a complex region, namely the Rhine Valley area, during the pre-operational period of IASI exploitation (June?August 2007). Both IASI water vapour mixing ratio profiles and integrated water vapour content are retrieved from L1C radiances spectra using two techniques and compared with water vapour related observations acquired during the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) field campaign that took place in this area at that time (i.e. lidars, radiosoundings and a global positioning system - GPS - station network). This work addresses the issue of IASI vertical spatial resolution and its capability to detect two-layer water vapour structures such as those observed in a mountainous area and which play an important role in convective initiation or inhibition. We found that this capability mostly relies on the type of a-priori background vector (climatology or space-time colocated ECMWF analysis), which is used within the retrieval scheme. Systematic comparison of water vapour products derived from 71 IASI spectra confirms that IASI can retrieve water vapour amounts in 2 km width layers, in the lower troposphere, with an accuracy of approximately 10%.
ISSN: 0369-1845

hal-00923710
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00923710
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00923710/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00923710/file/masiello.pdf
DOI : 10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0430

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : International audience
The benefit of assimilating high spatial and temporal resolution Global Positioning System (GPS) zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) observations within a high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) system is evaluated during IOP 9 of the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) campaign. In the framework of the international COPS field experiment, which took place from June to August 2007, a dense GPS network was deployed in the Vosges mountain region in eastern France and in the Black Forest region in southwestern Germany. GPS ZTD observations collected during the COPS field campaign, in addition to the European operational GPS data, are assimilated into the AROME/3D-Var system. We investigate the impact of assimilating these GPS ZTD observations on the forecast of convective systems that travelled over eastern France during the three days of COPS IOP 9 (18-20 July 2007). The results show a clear positive impact on short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts when GPS ZTD observations are assimilated. The impact is most important on 19 July 2007 (IOP 9b). The present study benefits from additional validation measurements collected during the COPS campaign. In particular we find that the assimilation of ZTD data induces changes in the low-to-middle tropospheric water vapour vertical structure that are consistent with water vapour measurements from radiosonde and airborne lidar. As most of the improvement is gained by assimilating GPS ZTD observations from the European operational GPS network, this study opens up encouraging horizons for the assimilation of GPS ZTD in new high-resolution operational NWP systems
ISSN: 0035-9009

hal-00424350
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00424350
DOI : 10.1002/qj.508

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : For operational forecasts anticipate convective inhibition processes is as important than convective initiation processes. Based on the 15th July 2007 case study this work shows how the morning shallow convection over the Vosges is inhibited while it develops over the Black Forest. This case occurs during IOP 8b of the Convective and Orographically-Induced Precipitation Study (COPS). This international field campaign took place during the summer of 2007 over the Vosges, the Rhine Valley and the Black-Forest. The aim of this intensive observation campaign was to study various phases of convection and convective environment and improve quantitative precipitation forecasts. Thanks to GPS tomography data the study show the differences of low-level water-vapor variability between Vosges and Black-Forest. The analysis of ground based and airborne lidar data suggests the importance of dry air layers advected from the south and the influence of the mountains and diurnal cycle of mountain breeze which interfere strongly with these layers preventing the dry air to reach the eastern side of the mountain and the Black Forest. This dynamics is confirmed by models, wind profiler and radiosounding data. So we show how the inhibition of the convection over the Vosges during this case study can be explained with the water vapor variability due to advection and local boundary layer processes.
31st ICAM (International Conference on Alpine Meteorology)
Aviemore, United Kingdom

hal-00668829
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00668829