Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
We explore the use of seismic noise produced by rivers to monitor the bed load transport in the case of a low-discharge braided river in the French Alps: the "torrent de St Pierre". For this purpose, we deployed two dedicated seismic networks during summers 2007 and 2008, for which the characteristics of the recorded continuous signal are similar despite changes in the sensor locations. For dry weather conditions, only melting of nearby glaciers controls the supply of water to the stream. In these conditions, the river hydrology and the seismic energy in the 2-80 Hz frequency band both follow a diurnal fluctuation similar to the thermal amplitude. In contrast during rainfall episodes, the temperature variation fails to explain the hydrodynamic changes. Dense cloud covers reduce glacier melting and the recorded seismic energy denotes bursts of high-frequency seismic noise well correlated with water level data. Comparisons between the recorded seismic signals and the collected hydrological and sediment load data indicate that a frequency band of 3-9 Hz best explains the water level changes and thus the seismic waves coming from the flow turbulence. These analyses also reveal the presence of a seismic noise threshold that might be linked to the water shear stress exerted by the flowing water. Using the seismic energy in this frequency band as a proxy of the fluvial shear stress, the seismic-hydrologic relationship may be sensitive to variations in bed load transport. The spectral content of the seismic energy shows patterns consistent with the mobilization of sediment particles. From the interpretations of the seismic wave attenuation of river sources, we finally propose that stations at a distance from the stream less than 50 m are able to record most sediment particles. Farther stations are still useful during extreme events when largest grain sizes are mobilized. More generally this study demonstrates the feasibility of using the river seismic signal to survey bed load transport in various river types from small braided mountain rivers like the "torrent de St Pierre" to the large entrenched Himalayan rivers.
ISSN: 0022-1694

hal-00644789
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00644789
DOI : 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.07.014

Éditeur(s) : Amer Geophysical Union
Résumé : Seismic noise is an indirect source of information on ocean waves. Using a model of noise generation and propagation, seismic stations can be separated into those that are mostly sensitive to local sea states, and those that integrate sources from a large oceanic area. The model also provides a classification of noise-generating sea states into three classes. The analysis of Central California seismic noise data, well correlated with local waves, reveals that class I events dominate in summer, caused by a single wind-sea system, and for which ocean wave spectral levels are proportional to seismic spectral levels to an exponent b similar or equal to 0.9. In winter, noise is dominated by class II generation, for which coastal reflection is important, with a wave spectral density roughly proportional to the seismic spectral density to an exponent b similar or equal to 0.7. Sporadic events of class III probably produce some of the strongest noise events in Central California and need to be properly screened. These events are caused by opposed wave systems that are usually the wind-sea and a swell. This noise classification can be used to improve on the correlation between measured and estimated wave heights(up to r = 0.93 for daily averages). For other locations, where remote oceanic sources are recorded, a significant wave height estimated from the seismic noise compares well with area-averaged satellite data or wave model results(r > 0.85 for daily averages). These analyses pave the way for quantitative uses of seismic records, including the reconstruction of past wave climates, and the calibration of wave hindcasts.
Journal Of Geophysical Research-oceans (0148-0227) (Amer Geophysical Union), 2012-05 , Vol. 117 , N. C05002 , P. 19 pp.

Droits : 2012 AGU
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00083/19443/17051.pdf
DOI:10.1029/2011JC007449
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00083/19443/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : Karstic aquifers represent the most important fresh water reservoirs in many regions of the world like the Mediterranean Basin. However, because of complex processes of karstification, those aquifers are highly heterogeneous at all spatial scales and vulnerable to contamination. In this dissertation, we studied the potential of gravimetry and ambient seismic noise for hydrological modeling in karstic areas.The dolomitic area surrounding the “GEK” observatory in the Durzon catchment on the Larzac plateau, in France, is the preferred site for these studies. Inside the observatory, a superconducting gravimeter dedicated to hydrology has continuously measured gravity changes since 2011 with high precision, undertaken for the first time on a karst. From this gravity monitoring, we made conceptual hydrological models which laid the foundation of 1-D flow physical models. Indeed, gravimetry is an integrative hydro-geophysical method which allows 1) to consider the epikarst, locally heterogeneous as an equivalent tabular medium and 2) to define the types of transfer (fast & slow) occurring at the site. Especially, the lack of fast transfer through the GEK epikarst was precisely quantified for the first time at the field scale (~100m). Gravity-driven water mass balance with local meteorological data (evapotranspiration from a flux tower and precipitation) allowed setting the bottom outlet of the model to 1 mm.day-1. This flow has proved to be representative of the low-flow discharge at the only spring which represents all groundwater outflows from the catchment. This result supposes the homogeneity of the dolomitic epikarst almost at the basin scale. Model parameters were next calibrated using one year of ambient seismic noise monitored at two stations. Phase velocity changes obtained by cross-correlating the noise between 6 and 8 Hz were used as a ”timer” to follow the water infiltration between a depth of 30 and 60 meters. Thus, monitoring seismic velocity changes using ambient seismic noise demonstrates great potential for the study of deep and complex critical zones and could fill the instrumental gap currently existing in hydrology.Time-lapse gravity measurements with a spring-based portable gravimeter have also demonstrated the different behavior of two epikarsts and their variability at the scale of a few hundred meters. Monthly measurements around the observatory revealed the spatial homogeneity of this dolomitic epikarst: all the stations showed the same water storage changes. On the contrary, seasonal surface to depth gravity measurements along the underground passage of the Saint-Ferréol sinkhole, in limestone, have shown fast transfer and strong spatial variability of water storage. Lithology is then expected to play a part in the epikarst capacity to retain water. The precision needed to measure the weak hydrological induced signals during those surveys required robust methodology and an ambient temperature effect on measurements with spring-based gravimeter was observed in the field and quantified in the laboratory.
Les aquifères karstiques représentent des ressources en eau essentielles dans de nombreuses régions du monde comme le bassin Méditerranéen. Cependant, de par les processus complexes de karstification, ces aquifères sont hétérogènes à de nombreuses échelles et vulnérables. Dans cette thèse, nous étudions le potentiel de la gravimétrie et du bruit sismique ambiant pour la modélisation hydrologique en milieu karstique.Le site dolomitique de l’observatoire « GEK », sur le bassin du Durzon dans le Larzac, est le site d’étude privilégié de ces travaux. Dans l’observatoire, un gravimètre supraconducteur dédié à l’hydrologie mesure depuis 2011 les variations de gravité en continu et à une très haute précision, pour la première fois sur un karst. Des modèles hydrologiques conceptuels ont été réalisés à partir de cette surveillance gravimétrique et ont permis de poser les bases de modèles physiques d’écoulements 1-D. En effet la gravimétrie, intégratrice, permet 1) de considérer l’épikarst localement hétérogène comme un milieu tabulaire équivalent et 2) de définir les types de transfert à l’œuvre sur le site. En particulier, l’absence de transfert rapide dans l’épikarst a été quantifiée avec précision pour la première fois à l’échelle du terrain (~100m). A l’aide de données météorologiques locales, un bilan de masse précis a permis de définir le flux en limite inférieure du modèle à 1 mm.jour-1. Ce flux s’est montré représentatif du débit de basses-eaux de la source drainant l’ensemble du bassin. Ce résultat suppose une homogénéité de l’épikarst dolomitique quasiment à l’échelle du bassin. Les paramètres des modèles physiques ont ensuite pu être calibrés à l’aide d’un an d’intercorrélation du bruit sismique ambiant entre deux stations. Les variations de vitesses de phase obtenues entre 6 et 8Hz nous ont servi de « chronomètre » pour suivre l’infiltration entre 30 et 60m de profondeur. La surveillance passive des variations de vitesses sismiques par intercorrélation du bruit sismique ambiant montre ainsi un fort potentiel pour l’étude des zones critiques profondes et complexes à l’échelle du terrain et peut combler la lacune instrumentale qui existe actuellement en hydrologie.Des campagnes répétées de mesures avec un gravimètre portable à ressort ont également mis en évidence le fonctionnement différent de deux épikarsts et leur variabilité à l’échelle de la centaine de mètres. Des mesures mensuelles autour de l’observatoire ont mis en évidence l’homogénéité spatiale de cet épikarst dolomitique : toutes les stations ont les mêmes variations temporelles de stock d’eau. Au contraire, des mesures saisonnières en surface et en profondeur le long de la galerie souterraine calcaire de l’abîme de Saint-Ferréol ont montré une variabilité spatiale forte du stockage ainsi que du transfert rapide. La lithologie de l’épikarst est donc suspectée de jouer un rôle dans sa capacité de stockage. Lors de ces campagnes, la faiblesse du signal recherché a nécessité une méthodologie précautionneuse et un effet de température sur les mesures des gravimètres relatifs à ressort a été observé sur le terrain et quantifié en laboratoire.
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01649606

NNT : 2016MONTT128
tel-01649606
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01649606
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01649606/document
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01649606/file/2016_FORES_archivage.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union
Résumé : During the 2003 summer monsoon, the Hi-CLIMB seismological stations deployed across the Himalayan Range detected bursts of high-frequency seismic noise that lasted several hours to days. On the basis of the cross correlation of seismic envelopes recorded at 11 stations, we show that the largest transient event on 15 August was located nearby a village partially destroyed on that day by a devastating debris flow. This consistency in both space and time suggests that high-frequency seismic noise analysis can be used to monitor debris flow generation as well as the evacuation of the sediment. A systematic study of one year of seismic noise, focusing on the detection of similar events, provides information on the spatial and temporal occurrence of mass movements at the front of the Himalayas. With a 50% probability of occurrence of a daily event, a total of 46 debris flows are seismically detected. Most of them were generated in regions of steep slopes, large gullies, and loose soils during the 2003 summer monsoon storms. These events are compared to local meteorological data to determine rainfall thresholds for slope failures, including the cumulative rainfall needed to bring the soil moisture content to failure capacity. The inferred thresholds are consistent with previous estimates deduced from soil studies as well as sediment supply investigations in the area. These results point out the potential of using seismic noise as a dedicated tool for monitoring the spatiotemporal occurrence of landslides and debris flows on a regional scale.
ISSN: 0148-0227

hal-00464177
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00464177
DOI : 10.1029/2008JF001198

Éditeur(s) : American Geophysical Union
Résumé : Noise with periods 3 to 10 s, ubiquitous in seismic records, is expected to be mostly generated by pairs of ocean wave trains of opposing propagation directions with half the seismic frequency. Here we present the first comprehensive numerical model of microseismic generation by random ocean waves, including ocean wave reflections. Synthetic and observed seismic spectra are well correlated (r > 0.85). On the basis of the model results, noise generation events can be clustered in three broad classes: wind waves with a broad directional spectrum (class I), sea states with a significant contribution of coastal reflections (class II), and the interaction of two independent wave systems (class III). At seismic stations close to western coasts, noise generated by class II sources generally dominates, but it is intermittently outshined by the intense class III sources, limiting the reliability of seismic data as a proxy for storm climates. The modeled seismic noise critically depends on the damping of seismic waves. At some mid-ocean island stations, low seismic damping is necessary to reproduce the observed high level and smoothness of noise time series that result from a spatial integration of sources over thousands of kilometers. In contrast, some coastal stations are only sensitive to noise within a few hundreds of kilometers. This revelation of noise source patterns worldwide provides a wealth of information for seismic studies, wave climate applications, and new constraints on the possible directional distribution of wave energy.
Journal of Geophysical Research ( JGR ) - Oceans (0148-0227) (American Geophysical Union), 2011-09 , Vol. 116 , N. C09004 , P. 21 p.

Droits : 2011 by the American Geophysical Union
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00044/15531/12926.pdf
DOI:10.1029/2011JC006952
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00044/15531/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union
Résumé : International audience
Analysis of continuous seismic data recorded by a dense passive seismological network (Hi-CLIMB) installed across the Himalayas reveals strong spatial and temporal variations in the ambient seismic energy produced at high frequencies (>1 Hz). From June to September 2003, the high-frequency seismic noise is observed to increase up to 20 dB (relative to (m/s)(2)/Hz) for all the stations located along a steep 30-km-long narrow and deeply incised channel of the Trisuli River, a major trans-Himalayan river. The early summer increase in high-frequency energy is modulated by a 24-h periodicity where the minimum of seismic noise level is reached around noon and the maximum is reached late in the evening. A detailed study of seismic noise amplitude reveals a clear correlation with both regional meteorological and hydrological data along the Trisuli River. Seasonal increase in ambient noise coincides with the strong monsoon rainfall and a period of rapid melting of snow and ice in the high elevations. The observed 24-h cyclicity is consistent with the daily fluctuation of the precipitation and river discharge in the region. River-induced seismic noise is partly generated by stream turbulence, but this mechanism fails to explain the observed clockwise hysteresis of seismic noise amplitude versus water level. This pattern is better explained if a significant part of the observed seismic noise is caused by ground vibrations generated by bed load transport. This points out the potential of using background seismic noise to quantify in continuous river bed load and monitor its spatial variations, which remain difficult with classical approaches.
ISSN: 2169-9313

hal-00412170
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00412170
DOI : 10.1029/2007JB005034

Éditeur(s) : Amer Geophysical Union
Résumé : We quantify, analyze, and characterize the frequency-dependent microseismic noise recorded by worldwide distributed seismic stations. Microseismic noise is generated through the interaction of ocean waves. It is the strongest ambient noise, and it is observed everywhere on Earth. We introduce a new approach which permits us to detect polarized signals in the time-frequency domain and which we use to characterize the microseismic noise. We analyze 7 years of continuous seismograms from the global GEOSCOPE network. Microseisms are dominated by Rayleigh waves, and we therefore focus on elliptically polarized signals. The polarized signals are detected in the time-frequency domain through a degree of polarization measure. We design polarization spectra and show that microseismic noise is more strongly polarized than noise in other frequency bands. This property is used to measure the directions of the polarized noise at individual stations as a function of time and frequency. Seasonal variations are found for the back azimuths and for the number of polarized signals at many stations. We show that the back azimuth directions are robust measurements that point toward the source areas computed from ocean wave models.
Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems (1525-2027) (Amer Geophysical Union), 2011-07 , Vol. 12 , N. Q07014 , P. 14 p.

Droits : 2011. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00041/15219/12713.pdf
DOI:10.1029/2011GC003661
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00041/15219/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Oxford University Press (OUP)
Résumé : International audience
A temporary network of 10 broad-band seismic stations has been installed in French Polynesia for the Polynesian Lithosphere and Upper Mantle Experiment (PLUME). All the seismic stations were installed either on volcanic islands or on atolls of the various archipelagos of French Polynesia in a manner which complements the geographic coverage provided by the regional permanent stations. The primary aim of PLUME is to image the upper mantle structures related to plate motion and hotspot activity. However, because of its proximity to all sites, the ocean is responsible for a high level of noise in the seismic data and we show that these data can also be used to analyse ocean wave activity. The power spectral density (PSD) analyses of the seismic data recorded in French Polynesia show clear peaks in the 0.05– 0.10 Hz band (periods between 10 and 20 s), which corresponds to swell frequencies. Clear peaks in this frequency band are also observed in infrasonic data recorded on Tahiti. Ground motion analysis shows that the swell-related seismic noise (SRSN) is linearly polarized in the horizontal plane and its amplitude decreases rapidly with the distance from the shore. The microseismic and the infrasonic 'noise' amplitudes show very similar variations from station to station and both are strongly correlated with the swell amplitudes predicted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), wind-forced, 'WaveWatch' models. The swell direction can be estimated from SRSN polarization analysis but this has to be done with care since, for some cases, the ground motions are strongly controlled by the islands' anisometric shapes and by swell refraction processes. We find cases, however, such as Tahiti or roughly circular Tuamotu atolls, where the azimuth of the swell is in good agreement with the seismic estimates. We, therefore, demonstrate that the SRSN and the infrasonic signal observed in French Polynesia can be used in such cases as a proxy for swell amplitude and azimuth. From the continuous analysis of the data recorded in 2003 at the permanent seismic station PPTL in Tahiti, transfer functions have been obtained. This could provide a way to quantify the swell activity during the last two decades and, therefore, assist in the investigation of climate changes.
ISSN: 0956-540X

hal-01388809
http://hal.univ-reunion.fr/hal-01388809
http://hal.univ-reunion.fr/hal-01388809/document
http://hal.univ-reunion.fr/hal-01388809/file/Barruol_swell_GJI2006.pdf
DOI : 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2006.02871.x

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Oxford University Press (OUP)
Résumé : International audience
A temporary network of 10 broad-band seismic stations has been installed in French Polynesia for the Polynesian Lithosphere and Upper Mantle Experiment (PLUME). All the seismic stations were installed either on volcanic islands or on atolls of the various archipelagos of French Polynesia in a manner which complements the geographic coverage provided by the regional permanent stations. The primary aim of PLUME is to image the upper mantle structures related to plate motion and hotspot activity. However, because of its proximity to all sites, the ocean is responsible for a high level of noise in the seismic data and we show that these data can also be used to analyse ocean wave activity. The power spectral density (PSD) analyses of the seismic data recorded in French Polynesia show clear peaks in the 0.05– 0.10 Hz band (periods between 10 and 20 s), which corresponds to swell frequencies. Clear peaks in this frequency band are also observed in infrasonic data recorded on Tahiti. Ground motion analysis shows that the swell-related seismic noise (SRSN) is linearly polarized in the horizontal plane and its amplitude decreases rapidly with the distance from the shore. The microseismic and the infrasonic 'noise' amplitudes show very similar variations from station to station and both are strongly correlated with the swell amplitudes predicted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), wind-forced, 'WaveWatch' models. The swell direction can be estimated from SRSN polarization analysis but this has to be done with care since, for some cases, the ground motions are strongly controlled by the islands' anisometric shapes and by swell refraction processes. We find cases, however, such as Tahiti or roughly circular Tuamotu atolls, where the azimuth of the swell is in good agreement with the seismic estimates. We, therefore, demonstrate that the SRSN and the infrasonic signal observed in French Polynesia can be used in such cases as a proxy for swell amplitude and azimuth. From the continuous analysis of the data recorded in 2003 at the permanent seismic station PPTL in Tahiti, transfer functions have been obtained. This could provide a way to quantify the swell activity during the last two decades and, therefore, assist in the investigation of climate changes.
ISSN: 0956-540X

hal-01323691
http://hal.univ-reunion.fr/hal-01323691
http://hal.univ-reunion.fr/hal-01323691/document
http://hal.univ-reunion.fr/hal-01323691/file/Barruol_et_al_2006.pdf
DOI : 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2006.02871.x

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Oxford University Press (OUP)
Résumé : International audience
To improve earthquake location, we create a 3-D a priori P-wave velocity model (3-DVM) that approximates the large velocity variations of the Ecuadorian subduction system. The 3-DVM is constructed from the integration of geophysical and geological data that depend on the structural geometry and velocity properties of the crust and the upper mantle. In addition, specific station selection is carried out to compensate for the high station density on the Andean Chain. 3-D synthetic experiments are then designed to evaluate the network capacity to recover the event position using only P arrivals and the MAXI technique. Three synthetic earthquake location experiments are proposed: (1) noise-free and (2) noisy arrivals used in the 3-DVM, and (3) noise-free arrivals used in a 1-DVM. Synthetic results indicate that, under the best conditions (exact arrival data set and 3-DVM), the spatiotemporal configuration of the Ecuadorian network can accurately locate 70 per cent of events in the frontal part of the subduction zone (average azimuthal gap is 289° ± 44°). Noisy P arrivals (up to ± 0.3 s) can accurately located 50 per cent of earthquakes. Processing earthquake location within a 1-DVM almost never allows accurate hypocentre position for offshore earthquakes (15 per cent), which highlights the role of using a 3-DVM in subduction zone. For the application to real data, the seismicity distribution from the 3-D-MAXI catalogue is also compared to the determinations obtained in a 1-D-layered VM. In addition to good-quality location uncertainties, the clustering and the depth distribution confirm the 3-D-MAXI catalogue reliability. The pattern of the seismicity distribution (a 13 yr record during the inter-seismic period of the seismic cycle) is compared to the pattern of rupture zone and asperity of the Mw = 7.9 1942 and the Mw = 7.7 1958 events (the Mw = 8.8 1906 asperity patch is not defined). We observe that the nucleation of 1942, 1958 and 1906 events coincides with areas of positive Simple Bouguer anomalies and areas where marine terraces are still preserved on the coastal morphology. From north to south: (1) the 1958 rupture zone is almost aseismic and is attributed to a zone of high coupling; (2) south of the Galera alignment (perpendicular to the trench), the 1942 rupture zone presents moderate seismicity, deeper on the seismogenic interplate zone, and abutting on the Jama cluster (to the south). This cluster is facing the Cabo Pasado cap and positive Bouguer anomalies on the overriding margin. We suspect that this cluster reflects a zone of local asperity (partial coupling). South of the Jama cluster, the spherical aseismic zone in the Bahia area is interpreted as having a low seismic coupling (steady creep motion or slow slip events). We suspect that the site that generated the three M > 7 events (1896, 1956 and 1998) correspond to a small patch of strong coupling. To the south, in the Manta-Puerto Lopez zone, the seismicity is mainly organized in earthquake swarms (1998, 2002, 2005). Although slow slip events have been observed in the area (Vallée et al. submitted), we infer from the coastline shape, the marine terraces and the high positive Bouguer anomalies that the seismicity here might reveal a significant amount of seismic coupling.
ISSN: 0956-540X

hal-00873478
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00873478
DOI : 10.1093/gji/ggs083

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : Point processes are often used as spatial or spatio-temporal distribution models of occurrences. In this PhD dissertation, we focus first on Cox processes driven by a hidden process associated with a Dirichlet process. This model corresponds to hidden occurrences influencing the stochastic intensity of observed occurrences. We generalize the notion of "Shot noise Cox process" introduced by M{o}ller and develop its bayesian analysis by a Gibbs sampler combined with a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. We show that our MCMC method is a reversible jump one. The model takes into account a random number of hidden contributions producing effects on the observed point process intensity. Therefore the parameter space has a variable dimension. We focus the statistical inference on the estimation of the hidden contribution expected value, the hidden contribution expected number, the spatial influence and correlation parameters. The contribution equality test and contribution independence test are proposed. Applications in epidemiology and ecology are shown from extit{Rubus fruticosa} data, extit{Ibicella lutea} data and death number data in counties of Georgia, USA. Two situations are considered with respect to available data~: firstly, the spatial positions of occurrences are observed between several pairs of consecutive dates; secondly, counts are carried out over a fixed time interval in several spatial sampling units. Secondly, we focus on point processes with memory introduced by Kagan, Ogata and Vere-Jones, pioneers in statistical seismology. In fact, spatio-temporal point processes play an important role in the studies of earthquake catalogs since they consist of seismic events with their dates and spatial locations. We studied an ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence) model with time independent background intensity and several triggering functions taking into account previous events. We illustrate our approach with a seismicity study of the Lesser Antilles arc. A comparaison study of Gamma, Weibull, Log-Normal and modified Omori law triggering function models is also carried out. We show that the modified Omori law does not fit the Lesser Antilles seismic data and the best adjusted triggering function is the Weibull model. Consequently, the waiting time between aftershocks is weaker in the Lesser Antilles zone compared to the one in regions with seismicity described by the modified Omori law. In other words, aftershock aggregativity is higher in the Lesser Antilles region. The stochastic background intensity following a Dirichlet process centered on a spatial log-normal process is discussed.
Les processus ponctuels sont souvent utilisés comme modèles de répartitions spatiales ou spatio-temporelles d'occurrences. Dans cette thèse, nous nous intéressons tout d'abord à des processus de Cox dirigés par un processus caché associé à un processus de Dirichlet. Ce modèle correspond à des occurrences cachées influençant l'intensité stochastique des occurrences observées. Nous généralisons la notion de " Shot noise Cox process " introduite par Moller et développons le traitement bayésien par un échantillonneur de Gibbs combiné à un algorithme de Metropolis-Hastings. Nous montrons que cette méthode MCMC est à sauts réversibles. Le modèle prend en compte, en effet, un nombre aléatoire de contributions cachées influençant l'intensité du processus ponctuel observé donc a un espace paramétrique de dimension variable. Nous focalisons l'inférence statistique sur l'estimation de la valeur espérée de chaque contribution cachée, le nombre espéré de contributions cachées, le degré d'influence spatiale de ces contributions et leur degré de corrélation. Le test d'égalité des contributions et celui de leur indépendance sont ainsi développés. L'utilité en épidémiologie et en écologie est alors démontrée à partir de données de Rubus fruticosa, Ibicella lutea et de mortalité dans les cantons de Georgia, USA. En termes de données observées, deux situations sont considérées: premièrement, les positions spatiales des occurrences sont observées entre plusieurs paires de dates consécutives; deuxièmement, des comptages sont effectués, au cours d'une période fixée, dans des unités d'échantillonnage spatiales. D'autre part, nous nous intéressons aux processus ponctuels à mémoire introduits par Kagan, Ogata et Vere-Jones, précurseurs de la statistique sismologique. En effet, les processus ponctuels spatio-temporels ont une place importante dans l'étude des catalogues sismiques puisque ces derniers sont généralement constitués d'événements sismiques datés et géo-référencés. Nous avons étudié un modèle ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence) avec une intensité d'arrière-plan indépendante du temps et plusieurs fonctions déclenchantes permettant d'intégrer les événements antérieurs récents. Cette approche est utilisée pour étudier la sismicité de l'arc des Petites Antilles. Une étude comparative des modèles Gamma, Weibull, Log-Normal et loi d'Omori modifiée pour les fonctions déclenchantes est menée. Nous montrons que la loi d'Omori modifiée ne s'ajuste pas aux données sismiques des Petites Antilles et la fonction déclenchante la plus adaptée est le modèle de Weibull. Cela implique que le temps d'attente entre répliques dans la zone des Petites Antilles est plus faible que celui des régions à sismicité décrite par la loi d'Omori modifiée. Autrement dit, l'agrégation des répliques après un événement majeur est plus prononcée dans la zone des Petites Antilles. La possibilité d'inclure une intensité d'arrière-plan suivant un processus de Dirichlet centré sur un processus spatial log-gaussien est discutée.
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00841146

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
NNT : 2012AGUY0555
tel-00841146
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00841146
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00841146/document
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00841146/file/these_VALMY.pdf

Éditeur(s) : Elsevier Sci Ltd
Résumé : A multi-scale global hindcast of ocean waves is presented that covers the years 1994-2012, based on recently published parameterizations for wind sea and swell dissipation [Ardhuin, F., Rogers, E., Babanin, A., Filipot, J.-F., Magne, R., Roland, A., van der Westhuysen, A., Queffeulou, P., Lefevre, J.-M., Aouf, L., Collard, F., 2010. Semi-empirical dissipation source functions for wind-wave models: Part I. Definition, calibration and validation. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 40 (9), 1917-1941]. Results from this hindcast include traditional wave parameters, like the significant wave height and mean periods, and we particularly consider the accuracy of the results for phenomenal sea states, with significant heights above 14 m. Using unbiased winds, there is no evidence of a bias in wave heights even for this very high range. Various spectral moments were also validated, including the surface Stokes drift and mean square slopes that are relevant for wave-current interactions modelling and remote sensing, and also spectra of seismic noise sources. The estimation of these parameters is made more accurate by the new wave growth and dissipation parameterizations. Associated air-sea fluxes of momentum and energy are significantly different from what is obtained with the WAM-Cycle 4 parameterization, with a roughness that is practically a function of wind speed only. That particular output of the model does not appear very realistic and will require future adjustments of the generation and dissipation parameterizations.
Ocean Modelling (1463-5003) (Elsevier Sci Ltd), 2013-10 , Vol. 70 , P. 174-188

Droits : 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00155/26582/25477.pdf
DOI:10.1016/j.ocemod.2012.12.001
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00155/26582/

Résumé : Les processus ponctuels sont souvent utilisés comme modèles de répartitions spatiales ou spatio-temporelles d'occurrences Dans cette thèse, nous nous intéressons à des processus de Cox dirigés par un processus caché associé à un processus de Dirichlet. Ce modèle correspond à des occurrences cachées influençant l'intensité stochastique des occurrences observées. Nous généralisons la notion de Shot noise Cox process et développons le traitement bayésien. Nous focalisons l'inférence statistique sur l'estimation de la valeur espérée de chaque contribution cachée, leur nombre espéré, degré d'influence spatiale et degré de corrélation L'utilité en épidémiologie et en écologie est démontrée à partir de données de Rubus fruticosa, lbicella lutea et de mortalité dans les cantons de Georgie, USA. En termes de données observées, deux situations sont considérées: d'abord, les positions spatiales des occurrences sont observées entre plusieurs paires de dates consécutives; puis, des comptages sont effectués dans des unités d'échantillonnage spatiales. D'autre part, nous nous intéressons aux processus ponctuels à mémoire introduits par Kagan, Ogata et Vere-Jones. En effet, les processus ponctuels ont une place importante dans l'étude des catalogues sismiques. Nous avons étudié un modèle Epidemie Type Aftershock Sequence avec une intensité d'arrière-plan indépendante du temps et plusieurs fonctions déclenchantes permettant d'intégrer les événements antérieurs récents. Cette approche est utilisée pour étudier la sismicité des Petites Antilles. Une étude comparative des modèles Gamma, Weibull, Log-Normal et loi d'Omori modifiée pour les fonctions déclenchantes est menée.
Point processes are often used as spatial or spatio-temporal distribution models of occurrences. In this Phd dissertation, we focus first on Cox processes driven by a hidden process associated with a Dirichlet process. This model corresponds to hidden occurrences influencing the stochastic intensity of observed occurrences. We generalize the notion of Shot noise Cox process and develop its bayesian analysis. We focus the statistical inference on the estimation of the hidden contribution expected value, the hidden contribution expected number, the spatial influence and correlation parameters. Applications in epidemiology and ecology are shown from Rubus fruticosa data, Ibicella lutea data and death number data in counties of Georgia, USA. Two situations are considered with respect to available data: firstly, the spatial positions of occurrences are observed between several pairs of consecutive dates; secondly, counts are carried out over a fixed time interval in several spatial sampling units. Secondly, we focus on point processes with memory intr oduced by Kagan, Ogata and Vere-Jones. Spatio-temporal point processes play an important role in the studies of earthquake catalogs since they consist of seismic events with their dates and spatial locations. We studied an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model with time independent background intensity and several triggering functions taking into account previous events. We illustrate our approach with a seismicity study of the Lesser Antilles arc. A comparaison study of Gamma, Weibull, Log-Normal and modified Omori law triggering function models is also carried out

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