Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
In the analysis of coastal hazards, the features of extreme waves are determining information to question the impact of storms to the coast. The spatial behaviour of extreme waves is even more valuable especially since it is sparsely provided. Regarding recent applications in other contexts, a kind of statistical models called max-stable processes is relevant for modelling spatial extreme events. Max-stable processes are extensions of the well-known Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Unlike univariate approaches, max-stable processes consider spatial dependence of a phenomenon. Such a modelling also overtakes a standard multivariate approach by providing information continuously over the area studied, even where no observation is available. Relying on such a stochastic modelling, the aim of this study is to discuss the extreme waves hazards in the Gulf of Lions, focusing on their spatial behaviour.
34th Conference on Coastal Engineering
Seoul, South Korea

lirmm-01382568
https://hal-lirmm.ccsd.cnrs.fr/lirmm-01382568
https://hal-lirmm.ccsd.cnrs.fr/lirmm-01382568/document
https://hal-lirmm.ccsd.cnrs.fr/lirmm-01382568/file/7553-31212-1-PB.pdf
DOI : 10.9753/icce.v34.management.17

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD BioMed Central
Résumé : International audience
ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Climate change poses unprecedented challenges, ranging from global and local policy challenges to personal and social action. Heat-related deaths are largely preventable, but interventions for the most vulnerable populations need improvement. Therefore, the prior identification of high risk areas at the community level is required to better inform planning and prevention. We aimed to demonstrate a simple and flexible conceptual framework relying upon satellite thermal data and other digital data with the goal of easily reproducing this framework in a variety of urban configurations. RESULTS: The study area encompasses Rennes, a medium-sized French city. A Landsat ETM + image (60 m resolution) acquired during a localized heatwave (June 2001) was used to estimate land surface temperature (LST) and derive a hazard index. A land-use regression model was performed to predict the LST. Vulnerability was assessed through census data describing four dimensions (socio-economic status, extreme age, population density and building obsolescence). Then, hazard and vulnerability indices were combined to deliver a heatwave health risk index. The LST patterns were quite heterogeneous, reflecting the land cover mosaic inside the city boundary, with hotspots of elevated temperature mainly observed in the city center. A spatial error regression model was highly predictive of the spatial variation in the LST (R2 = 0.87) and was parsimonious. Three land cover descriptors (NDVI, vegetation and water fractions) were negatively linked with the LST. A sensitivity analysis (based on an image acquired on July 2000) yielded similar results. Southern areas exhibited the most vulnerability, although some pockets of higher vulnerability were observed northeast and west of the city. The heatwave health risk map showed evidence of infra-city spatial clustering, with the highest risks observed in a north--south central band. Another sensitivity analysis gave a very high correlation between 2000 and 2001 risk indices (r = 0.98, p < 10-12). CONCLUSIONS: Building on previous work, we developed a reproducible method that can provide guidance for local planners in developing more efficient climate impact adaptations. We recommend, however, using the health risk index together with hazard and vulnerability indices to implement tailored programs because exposure to heat and vulnerability do not require the same prevention strategies.
ISSN: 1476-072X

inserm-00762303
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00762303
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00762303/document
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00762303/file/1476-072X-11-38.pdf
DOI : 10.1186/1476-072X-11-38

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union
Résumé : International audience
The exchanges of carbon, water and energy between the atmosphere and the Amazon basin have global implications for the current and future climate. Here, the global atmospheric inversion system of the Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) service is used to study the seasonal and interannual variations of biogenic CO 2 fluxes in Amazonia during the period 2002–2010. The system assimilated surface measurements of atmospheric CO 2 mole fractions made at more than 100 sites over the globe into an atmospheric transport model. The present study adds measurements from four surface stations located in tropical South America, a region poorly covered by CO 2 observations. The estimates of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) optimized by the inversion are compared to an independent estimate of NEE upscaled from eddy-covariance flux measurements in Amazonia. They are also qualitatively evaluated against reports on the seasonal and interannual variations of the land sink in South America from the scientific literature. We attempt at assessing the impact on NEE of the strong droughts in 2005 and 2010 (due to severe and longer-than-usual dry seasons) and the extreme rainfall conditions registered in 2009. The spatial variations of the seasonal and in-terannual variability of optimized NEE are also investigated. While the inversion supports the assumption of strong spatial heterogeneity of these variations, the results reveal critical limitations of the coarse-resolution transport model, the surface observation network in South America during the recent years and the present knowledge of modelling uncertainties in South America that prevent our inversion from capturing the seasonal patterns of fluxes across Amazonia. However, some patterns from the inversion seem consistent with the anomaly of moisture conditions in 2009.
ISSN: 1680-7316

hal-01557375
https://hal.univ-lorraine.fr/hal-01557375
https://hal.univ-lorraine.fr/hal-01557375/document
https://hal.univ-lorraine.fr/hal-01557375/file/acp-15-8423-2015.pdf
DOI : 10.5194/acp-15-8423-2015-supplement

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
Extreme rainfall events can trigger numerous landslides in mountainous areas and a prolonged increase of river sediment load. The resulting mass transfer at the Earth surface in turn induces stress changes at depth, which could be sufficient to trigger shallow earthquakes. The 2009 Morakot typhoon represents a good case study as it delivered 3 m of precipitation in 3 days and caused some of the most intense erosion ever recorded. Analysis of seismicity time-series before and after the Morakot typhoon reveals a systematic increase of shallow (i.e. 0-15 km of depth) earthquake frequency in the vicinity of the areas displaying a high spatial density of landslides. This step-like increase in frequency lasts for at least 2-3 years and does not follow an Omori-type aftershock sequence. Rather, it is associated to a step change of the Gutenberg-Richter b-value of the earthquake catalog. Both changes occurred in mountainous areas of southwest Taiwan, where typhoon Morakot caused extensive landsliding. These spatial and temporal correlations strongly suggest a causal relationship between the Morakot-triggered landslides and the increase of earthquake frequency and their associated b-value. We propose that the progressive removal of landslide materials from the steep mountain landscape by river sediment transport acts as an approximately constant increase of the stress rate with respect to pre-typhoon conditions, and that this in turn causes a step-wise increase in earthquake frequency. To test this hypothesis, we investigate the response of a rate-and-state fault to stress changes using a 2-D continuum elasto-dynamic model. Consistent with the results of Ader et al. (2013), our preliminary results show a step-like increase of earthquake frequency in response to a step-like decrease of the fault normal stress. We also investigate the sensitivity of the amplitude and time-scale of the earthquake frequency increase to the amplitude of the normal stress change and to rheological parameters. Our study offers new insights on the potential influence of extreme erosional events on the short-time scale dynamics of faults and earthquakes.
American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2016
San Francisco, United States

insu-01416987
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01416987