Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Editions Paralia CFL
Résumé : L'hydrodynamique du plateau continental du Golfe du Lion est généralement induite par les vents. Les simulations numériques réalisées par les modèles numériques de circulation océanique côtière aux équations primitives sont en général cohérentes avec les observations in-situ. Très peu d'observations étaient toutefois disponibles pendant les épisodes de tempêtes méditerranéennes. Aussi, la station BESSète (Bottom Experimental Station Sète), équipée d'un ADCP mesurant en continu les caractéristiques de houle et les profils verticaux de courants, a été implantée sur le plateau sous 70 m. Les premières données issues de cette station, acquises en février-mars 2007, confirment les schémas de circulations induits par les vents de Nord (Mistral,Tramontane). Un épisode de tempête (Hs>5m) a aussi pu être observé le 18 février 2007. De forts courants dont l'intensité peut atteindre 0,7 ms-1 y sont associés. Cette série de données est ensuite utilisée pour calculer les tensions decisaillements induites sur le fond. Sous 70 m, elles sont en général quasi-nulles excepté pendant l'épisode de tempête où l'action conjuguée des houles et des courants peut induire des contraintes susceptibles de mobiliser et déplacer le sédiment fin présent dans la zone. La très forte intensité des courants mesurés pendant la tempête amènent ensuite à reconsidérer les processus de transferts de quantité de mouvement entre atmosphère, océan et sédiments. Très schématiquement, sur le plateau, dès que la houle interagit avec le fond, la houle se transforme (réfraction, dissipation) et transmettrait de la quantité de mouvement à l'échelle des courants moyens. Cette hypothèse est retenue pour expliquer ces forts courants observés et pourrait être confirmée par d'autres travaux théoriques et numériques.
ISSN: 1760-8716

hal-00854000
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00854000
DOI : 10.5150/jngcgc.2008.011-L

Éditeur(s) : Oxford Univ Press
Résumé : This study presents the results of a deep seismic survey across the north Algerian margin, based on the combination of 2-D multichannel and wide-angle seismic data simultaneously recorded by 41 ocean bottom seismometers deployed along a north-south line extending 180 km off Jijel into the Algerian offshore basin, and 25 land stations deployed along a 100-km-long line, cutting through the Lesser Kabylia and the Tellian thrust-belt. The final model obtained using forward modelling of the wide-angle data and pre-stack depth migration of the seismic reflection data provides an unprecedented view of the sedimentary and crustal structure of the margin. The sedimentary layers in the Algerian basin are 3.75 km thick to the north and up to 4.5-5 km thick at the foot of the margin. They are characterized by seismic velocities from 1.9 to 3.8 km s(-1). Messinian salt formations are about 1 km thick in the study area, and are modelled and imaged using a velocity between 3.7 and 3.8 km s(-1). The crust in the deep sea basin is about 4.5 km thick and of oceanic origin, presenting two distinct layers with a high gradient upper crust (4.7-6.1 km s(-1)) and a low gradient lower crust (6.2-7.1 km s(-1)). The upper-mantle velocity is constrained to 7.9 km s(-1). The ocean-continent transition zone is very narrow between 15 and 20 km wide. The continental crust reaches 25 km thickness as imaged from the most landward station and thins to 5 km over a less than 70 km distance. The continental crust presents steep and asymmetric upper- and lower-crustal geometry, possibly due to either asymmetric rifting of the margin, an underplated body, or flow of lower crustal material towards the ocean basin. Present-time deformation, as imaged from three additional seismic profiles, is characterized by an interplay of gravity-driven mobile-salt creep and active thrusting at the foot of the tectonically inverted Algerian margin.
Geophysical Journal International (0956-540X) (Oxford Univ Press), 2014-09 , Vol. 198 , N. 3 , P. 1486-1503

Droits : 2014 The Royal Astronomical Society
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00217/32836/32150.pdf
DOI:10.1093/gji/ggu179
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00217/32836/

Éditeur(s) : Oxford Univ Press
Résumé : Spatio-seasonal explicit simulation models can predict the impact of spatial management measures on marine fish populations and fishing activities. As fisheries are complex systems, fisheries simulation models are often complex, with many uncertain parameters. Here, the methodology is provided to deliver fishery diagnostics within an uncertainty context using a complex simulation tool. A sensitivity analysis of the model is performed on model outputs using partial least-squares to identify the most sensitive parameters. The impact of several management measures is then simulated using a statistical simulation design taking into account the uncertainty of the selected sensitive parameters. This approach was applied to the Bay of Biscay anchovy stock using the ISIS-Fish (Integration of Spatial Information for Simulation of Fisheries) model to assess the impact of imposing marine protected areas (MPAs) conditionally on parameter uncertainty. The diagnostic appeared to be highly sensitive to the mortality of larvae and juveniles, growth, and reproduction. The uncertainty of the values of these parameters did not permit any of the simulated MPA designs to be proposed. However, according to anchovy catch and biomass, the simulations allowed the low impact of closure duration to be shown and underscored the utility of protecting such key processes as spawning.
Ices Journal Of Marine Science (1054-3139) (Oxford Univ Press), 2010-07 , Vol. 67 , N. 5 , P. 1063-1075

Droits : 2010 ICES/CIEM. Oxford journals
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00011/12234/9281.pdf
DOI:10.1093/icesjms/fsq002
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00011/12234/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
ABSTRACT :A satellite retrieval of surface solar irradiance (SSI) based on GOES satellite data is presented and validated for the French Guiana with three years of in situ measurements from six ground stations. We propose a particle filter approach combining GOES satellite observations and in situ data. We propose an original observation function based on a joint probability distribution and taking advantages of the characteristics of both the involved type of data. The statistical results are compared with those of existing estimation methods and they are found to be in accordance with them. The daily bias ranges from -12 W/m² (-6% of the mean of measurements) to 12 W/m² (6%), depending on the stations. The daily root mean square difference ranges between 23 W/m² (10%) and 27 W/m² (15%). The correlation coefficient is close to 0.92. There is no seasonal climatic effect on the method, the bias and RMSD remain similar for both the rainy and the dry season, but better correlation is observed in the rainy season than in the dry season. Uncertainties are mainly due to the presence of specific tropical atmospheric conditions during the dry season. The method has been tested through various tests: cross-validation scheme has highlighted the potential generalization of the model in a temporal dimension; the ability of the method to effectively duplicate anomalies in surface solar irradiance time series has also been tested. The robustness of the results shows the interest of the method compared to other existing estimation methods. Because of its simplicity of implementation this method opens new prospects in estimating surface solar irradiance. It is concluded that using a particle filter and original observation function method allow a high-quality surface solar irradiance estimation in French Guiana.RESUMEUne méthode d'estimation de l'irradiance solaire de surface (SSI) à partir de données satellites GOES est présentée et validée par comparaison avec trois années de mesures in situ provenant de six stations météorologiques de Guyane Française. Dans cet article, nous proposons une approche par filtre particulaire combinant observations du satellite GOES et données in situ. Nous proposons une fonction d'observation originale basée sur une distribution de probabilité conjointe des deux types de données. Les résultats statistiques sont conformes à ceux des méthodes existantes. Le biais journalier varie de -16 W / m² (-7% de la moyenne des mesures) à 12 W / m² (6%). L'erreur quadratique moyenne (RMSD) est comprise entre 23 W / m² (10%) et 27 W / m² (15%). Le coefficient de corrélation est de 0,92. La méthode est peu sensible aux variations climatiques saisonnières, le biais et RMSD restent similaires en saison des pluies comme en saison sèche, mais une meilleure corrélation est observée pendant la saison des pluies. Les incertitudes sont principalement dues à la présence de conditions atmosphériques tropicales spécifiques en saison sèche. La méthode a été soumise à différents tests : un processus de validation croisée a mis en évidence la possible généralisation du modèle dans une dimension temporelle, la capacité du modèle à reproduire efficacement des anomalies dans les séries temporelles d'irradiance solaire de surface a aussi été testée. La robustesse des résultats obtenus montrent l'intérêt du modèle par rapport aux autres méthodes d'estimation existantes. A cause de sa simplicité de mise en oeuvre cette méthode ouvre de nouvelles perspectives en matière d'estimation de l'irradiance solaire au sol. Nous concluons que l'utilisation d'un filtre particulaire combinée à une fonction d'observation originale permet une estimation de haute qualité de l'irradiance solaire au sol en Guyane Française.
Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing

meteo-01304574
https://hal-meteofrance.archives-ouvertes.fr/meteo-01304574
DOI : 10.1080/07038992.2015.1040150

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Springer Verlag (Germany) Springer Verlag
Résumé : Direct numerical simulations of flow through two millimeter-scale rock samples of limestone and sandstone are performed using three diverse fluid dynamic simulators. The resulting steady-state velocity fields are compared in terms of the associated empirical probability density functions (PDFs) and key statistics of the velocity fields. The pore space geometry of each sample is imaged at 5.06−μm voxel size resolution using X-ray microtomography. The samples offer contrasting characteristics in terms of total connected porosity (about 0.31 for the limestone and 0.07 for the sandstone) and are typical of several applications in hydrogeology and petroleum engineering. The three-dimensional fluid velocity fields within the explicit pore spaces are simulated using ANSYS® FLUENT® ANSYS Inc. (2009), EULAG Prusa et al. (Comput. Fluids 37, 1193–1207 2008), and SSTOKES Sarkar et al. (2002). These computational approaches are highly disperse in terms of algorithmic complexity, differ in terms of their governing equations, the adopted numerical methodologies, the enforcement of internal no-slip boundary conditions at the fluid-solid interface, and the computational mesh structure. As metrics of comparison to probe in a statistical sense the internal similarities/differences across sample populations of velocities obtained through the computational systems, we consider (i) integral quantities, such as the Darcy flux and (ii) main statistical moments of local velocity distributions including local correlations between velocity fields. Comparison of simulation results indicates that mutually consistent estimates of the state of flow are obtained in the analyzed samples of natural pore spaces despite the considerable differences associated with the three computational approaches. We note that in the higher porosity limestone sample, the structures of the velocity fields obtained using ANSYS FLUENT and EULAG are more alike than either compared against the results obtained using SSTOKES. In the low-porosity sample, the structures of the velocity fields obtained by EULAG and SSTOKES are more similar than either is to the fields obtained using ANSYS FLUENT. With respect to macroscopic quantities, ANSYS FLUENT and SSTOKES provide similar results in terms of the average vertical velocity for both of the complex microscale geometries considered, while EULAG tends to render the largest velocity values. The influence of the pore space structure on fluid velocity field characteristics is also discussed.
ISSN: 1420-0597

hal-01174152
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01174152
DOI : 10.1007/s10596-015-9486-7

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
The Corinth Rift is the most seismically active zone in Europe. Since the year 2000, the Corinth Rift Laboratory (CRL, http://crlab.eu) consisting in a multidisciplinary natural observatory, aims at understanding the mechanics of faulting and earthquake nucleation in the Rift. Recent studies have improved our view about fault geometry and mechanics within CRL but there is still a critical need for a better knowledge of the structure at depth.In this project, we aim to analyze the complete seismological database (13 years of recordings) of CRL by using recently developed methodologies of structural imaging in order to determine, with high resolution, the local 3D structure and the earthquake locations. We perform an iterative joint determination of 3D velocity model and earthquake coordinates. P and S velocity models are estimated through a first arrival traveltime tomography by using the adjoint state method proposed by Taillandier et al. (2009). It consists in the minimization of the cost function between observed and theoretical arrival times,which is achieved by estimating the gradient of the cost function. Earthquake locations are also estimated with a linearized inversion approach by computing the gradient of the misfit function. Iterations are repeated until the cost function no longer decreases. We present preliminary results consisting in: (1) the adjustment of a 1D velocity model that is used as initial model of the 3D tomography and (2) a first attempt of the joint determination of 3D velocity model and earthquake locations.We also perform a preliminary receiver function analysis of teleseismic data recorded by the broadband stations of the CRL network. The multiscale approach (Gesret et. al., 2010) analysis of teleseismic P to S converted waves allows to analyze the signal toward the higher frequencies and thus to characterize the structure at depth with a high resolution. Our multiscale approach should give us reliable depth of interfaces beneath seismometers in the CRL area. In this first attempt, we adjust the 1D velocity model that produces a synthetic RF as similar as possible to the stack of observed RF for a subset of data. The identified interfaces could then be compared with heterogeneities imaged by the tomography.
AGU Fall Meeting
San Fransico, United States

hal-01417184
https://hal-mines-paristech.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01417184

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : International audience
1. The Before-After Control-Impact Paired Series (BACIPS) design distinguishes natural spatial and temporalvariability from variation induced by an environmental impact (or intervention) of interest. BACIPS is a powerfultool to derive inferences about interventions when classic experimental approaches (e.g. which rely on spatialreplicates and random assignment of treatments) are not feasible or desirable. Previously applied BACIPSdesigns generally assume that effects are sudden, constant and long-lived: that is, that systems exhibit ‘stepchanges’in response to interventions. However, complex ecological interactions or gradual interventions maycreate delayed and/or progressive responses, potentially impeding the reliability of classic (step-change) analyses.2. We propose a novel approach, the Progressive-Change BACIPS, which generalizes and expands the scope ofBACIPS analyses.We evaluate the relative performance of this approach using both simulated and real data thatexhibit step-change, linear, asymptotic and sigmoid responses following an intervention.We quantify the statisticalpower and accuracy of the Progressive-Change BACIPS under varying initial population densities, intensityof spatial sampling, effect sizes and number of sampling dates After the intervention.3. We show that Progressive-Change BACIPS identified the correct model among the set of candidate modelsunder most conditions and led to accurate estimates of the parameters that were used to generate the simulateddata. When data were sparse, and the dynamics complex, simpler (more parsimonious) models were favouredover the more complex models that actually generated the simulated data. Application of the Progressive-Change BACIPS to existing data sets from the literature led to strong support for specific models (over alternatives)and led to more specific inferences than possible under the classic BACIPS approach.4. The Progressive-Change BACIPS proposed here is more flexible than the original BACIPS formulationbecause the data are used to inform the form of the final model, rather than having the form of the modelimposed on the data. This leads to better estimates of the effects of environmental impacts and the time-scalesover which they operate. As a result, the Progressive-Change BACIPS should be applicable to a wide range ofstudies and should help improve investigation of time-dependent effects. R code to perform Progressive-ChangeBACIPS analysis is provided.
ISSN: 2041-210X

hal-01416668
https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01416668
DOI : 10.1111/2041-210X.12655

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
Tropical islands are characterized by thermal and orographical forcings which may generate microscale air mass circulations. The Lesser Antilles Arc includes small tropical islands (width lower than 50 km) where a total of one-and-a-half million people live. Air quality over this region is affected by anthropogenic and volcanic emissions, or saharan dust. To reduce risks for the population health, the atmospheric dispersion of emitted pollutants must be predicted. In this study, the dispersion of anthropogenic nitrogen oxides (NOx) is numerically modelled over the densely populated area of the Guadeloupe archipelago under weak trade winds, during a typical case of severe pollution. The main goal is to analyze how microscale resolutions affect air pollution in a small tropical island. Three resolutions of domain grid are selected: 1 km, 333 m and 111 m. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is used to produce real nested microscale meteorological fields. Then the weather outputs initialize the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (FLEXPART). The forward simulations of a power plant plume showed good ability to reproduce nocturnal peaks recorded by an urban air quality station. The increase in resolution resulted in an improvement of model sensitivity. The nesting to subkilometer grids helped to reduce an overestimation bias mainly because the LES domains better simulate the turbulent motions governing nocturnal flows. For peaks observed at two air quality stations, the backward sensitivity outputs identified realistic sources of NOx in the area. The increase in resolution produced a sharper inverse plume with a more accurate source area. This study showed the first application of the FLEXPART-WRF model to microscale resolutions. Overall, the coupling model WRF-LES-FLEXPART is useful to simulate the pollutant dispersion during a real case of calm wind regime over a complex terrain area. The forward and backward simulation results showed clearly that the subkilometer resolution of 333 m is necessary to reproduce realistic air pollution patterns in this case of short-range transport over a complex terrain area. Globally, this work contributes to enrich the sparsely documented domain of real nested microscale air pollution modelling. This study dealing with the determination of the proper resolution grid and proper turbulence scheme, is of significant interest to the near-source and complex terrain air quality research community.
ISSN: 1352-2310

hal-01349208
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01349208
DOI : 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.05.028

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Nature Publishing Group
Résumé : International audience
Everyone is subject to environmental exposures from various sources, with negative health impacts (air, water and soil contamination, noise, etc.or with positive effects (e.g. green space). Studies considering such complex environmental settings in a global manner are rare. We propose to use statistical factor and cluster analyses to create a composite exposure index with a data-driven approach, in view to assess the environmental burden experienced by populations. We illustrate this approach in a large French metropolitan area. The study was carried out in the Great Lyon area (France, 1.2 M inhabitants) at the census Block Group (BG) scale. We used as environmental indicators ambient air NO2 annual concentrations, noise levels and proximity to green spaces, to industrial plants, to polluted sites and to road traffic. They were synthesized using Multiple Factor Analysis (MFA), a data-driven technique without a priori modeling, followed by a Hierarchical Clustering to create BG classes. The first components of the MFA explained, respectively, 30, 14, 11 and 9% of the total variance. Clustering in five classes group: (1) a particular type of large BGs without population; (2) BGs of green residential areas, with less negative exposures than average; (3) BGs of residential areas near midtown; (4) BGs close to industries; and (5) midtown urban BGs, with higher negative exposures than average and less green spaces. Other numbers of classes were tested in order to assess a variety of clustering. We present an approach using statistical factor and cluster analyses techniques, which seem overlooked to assess cumulative exposure in complex environmental settings. Although it cannot be applied directly for risk or health effect assessment, the resulting index can help to identify hot spots of cumulative exposure, to prioritize urban policies or to compare the environmental burden across study areas in an epidemiological framework.Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology advance online publication, 24 September 2014; doi:10.1038/jes.2014.66.
ISSN: 1559-0631

hal-01069587
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01069587
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01069587/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01069587/file/Article_multiexpo_20140708_c.pdf
DOI : 10.1038/jes.2014.66

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
Nous nous intéressons aux processus ponctuels auto-excitatifs introduits par Ogata en 1998 et discutés par Zhuang et al. (2005). Ce modèle peut être vu comme une extension, dans un premier temps du processus ponctuel présenté par Hawkes en 1971 et, dans un second temps du modèle de type épidémique temporel proposé par Ogata en 1988. Il s'agit du modèle spatio-temporel ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence) intégrant l'aspect spatio-temporel et les marques. Une de ses utilisations est le calcul de risques sismiques dans une région. Nous étudions les propriétés de la log-vraisemblance et des estimateurs de maximum de vraisemblance dans le cadre d'une application relative à la sismologie de l'Arc Antillais. Des données de tremblements de terre mesurées entre 1999 et 2004 sont analysées et l'adéquation au modèle ETAS est testée.
43èmes Journées de la Statistique
Gammarth, Tunisia

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
hal-00601512
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00601512
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00601512/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00601512/file/ValmySfds2011.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Public Library of Science
Résumé : International audience
Local variation in the density of Anopheles mosquitoes and the risk of exposure to bites are essential to explain the spatial and temporal heterogeneities in the transmission of malaria. Vector distribution is driven by environmental factors. Based on variables derived from satellite imagery and meteorological observations, this study aimed to dynamically model and map the densities of Anopheles darlingi in the municipality of Saint-Georges de l’Oyapock (French Guiana). Longitudinal sampling sessions of An. darlingi densities were conducted between September 2012 and October 2014. Landscape and meteorological data were collected and processed to extract a panel of variables that were potentially related to An. darlingi ecology. Based on these data, a robust methodology was formed to estimate a statistical predictive model of the spatial-temporal variations in the densities of An. darlingi in Saint-Georges de l’Oyapock. The final cross-validated model integrated two landscape variables—dense forest surface and built surface—together with four meteorological variables related to rainfall, evapotranspiration, and the minimal and maximal temperatures. Extrapolation of the model allowed the generation of predictive weekly maps of An. darlingi densities at a resolution of 10-m. Our results supported the use of satellite imagery and meteorological data to predict malaria vector densities. Such fine-scale modeling approach might be a useful tool for health authorities to plan control strategies and social communication in a cost-effective, targeted, and timely manner.
ISSN: 1932-6203

hal-01383486
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01383486
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01383486/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01383486/file/Adde_et_al_PlosONE_2016.pdf
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0164685

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : données, méthodes disponibles auprès de l'auteur
In tropical forest communities, interspecific competition and recruitment limitation by dispersal are two general mecanisms of tree species coexistence. Their role in regeneration remains poorly known, even though it is essential to understand them to better adress the gestion of exploited forests. In this work, environemental conditions and intraspecific relations were taken into account in the analysis of juvenile distribution. Fifteen species were retained according to a gradient of shade-tolerance and various seed dispersal modes. Statistical modelling of local density was used to link the success of installation with environnemental conditions and distances to adults simultaneously. Model prediction evidenced the gradient of shade-tolerance among studied species and revealed different installation curves related to dispersal modes.
Dans les communautés de forêt tropicale humide, la compétition interspécifique et la limitation du recrutement par la dispersion ont généralement invoquées pour expliquer la coexistence de nombreuses espèces d'arbres. Le rôle de ces mécanismes dans la régénération reste peu connu, bien que leur compréhension soit essentielle pour la gestion des forêts exploitées. Dans ce travail, les conditions du milieu et les relations intraspécifiques ont été prises en compte dans l'analyse des distributions de juvéniles. Quinze espèces non pionnières ont été sélectionnées selon un gradient de tolérance à l'ombre et des modes de dispersion variés. La modélisation statistique de la densité locale a permis de relier le succès d'installation des juvéniles aux conditions du milieu et aux distances aux arbres adultes simultanément. Les prédictions des
modèles confirment le gradient de tolérance parmi les espèces étudiées et révèlent des courbes d'installation différentes selon le mode de dispersion.
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00297707

tel-00297707
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00297707
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00297707/document
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00297707/file/PhD_regeneration_Olivier_Flores.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : International audience
Projections of climate change impacts on coral reefs produced at the coarse resolution (~1°) of Global Climate Models (GCMs) have informed debate but have not helped target local management actions. Here, projections of the onset of annual coral bleaching conditions in the Caribbean under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 are produced using an ensemble of 33 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 models and via dynamical and statistical downscaling. A high-resolution (~11 km) regional ocean model (MOM4.1) is used for the dynamical downscaling. For statistical downscaling, sea surface temperature (SST) means and annual cycles in all the GCMs are replaced with observed data from the ~4-km NOAA Pathfinder SST dataset. Spatial patterns in all three projections are broadly similar ; the average year for the onset of annual severe bleaching is 2040–2043 for all projections. However, downscaled projections show many locations where the onset of annual severe bleaching (ASB) varies 10 or more years within a single GCM grid cell. Managers in locations where this applies (e.g., Florida, Turks and Caicos, Puerto Rico, and the Domini-can Republic, among others) can identify locations that represent relative albeit temporary refugia. Both downscaled projections are different for the Bahamas compared to the GCM projections. The dynamically downscaled projections suggest an earlier onset of ASB linked to projected changes in regional currents, a feature not resolved in GCMs. This result demonstrates the value of dynamical downscaling for this application and means statistically downscaled projections have to be interpreted with caution. However, aside from west of Andros Island, the projections for the two types of downscaling are mostly aligned; projected onset of ASB is within AE10 years for 72% of the reef locations.
ISSN: 1354-1013

Droits : http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/
hal-01223492
https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01223492
https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01223492/document
https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01223492/file/Hooidonk_et_al-2015-Global_Change_Biology.pdf
DOI : 10.1111/gcb.12901

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : The Earth's magnetic field shows a large range of temporal variations from the year to several million years. I studied during my PhD thesis several aspects of these fluctuations, from recent secular variations to reversals. The first part of my manuscript deals with archeomagnetism, a discipline that allows to track the temporal variations of the Earth's magnetic field through millennia, mainly from archeological materials. I studied two sets of samples , one from Greece (Neolithic period 6800-3200 B.C.) and the other from Mexico (Palenque, Maya Classic period 320-840 A.D.), to acquire new archeointensity data in order to better constrain the secular variation of the geomagnetic field. By comparing my data with those available in the literature and with the various global and regional models, I showed that the secular variations during the Neolithic in Greece and during the first millennium in Central America are poorly defined. My data suggest that local components, not described by global models, may exist in these regions. They reinforce the importance of developing specific regional models. As a consequence, the acquisition of new high quality data is of main importance. The second part presents the description of a geomagnetic field reversal. This work was based on two points : first by studying transitional directions to provide new constraints on the possible preferred longitudinal paths of virtual geomagnetic poles (VGPs) and second by checking transitional paleointensities obtained on a volcanic sequence in Akaroa volcano (New Zealand). Indeed the transitional field intensity is significantly higher than the field intensity before and after the reversal. We re-sampled this sequence, and the directional results show a complex sequence of N-T-R-T-N-T-R polarity. The transitional VGPs obtained are clustered in two longitudinal bands through Australia and America. This observation seems to reinforce the assumption of a core-mantle interaction over several million years. Following a rock magnetic study, I selected samples that could provide a value for the Thellier and multispecimen paleointensity methods. The obtained paleointensity are relatively low (about 20 μT) during the polarity change and strong at the end of the sequence. Based both on the field strength values and on the radiochronological ages, showing that the sequence was erupted in a very short time, I suggest that only the C4AR.1n-C4Ar.1r reversal was recorded in this sequence. In this assumption, the reversal shows a complex path comparable to other reversals recorded in the northern hemisphere (for example the Steens Mountain ), including a rebound before stabilizing. Finally the last part is devoted to the development of a new methodology and a new apparatus to determine absolute paleointensity. Following the low success rate of paleointensity experiments from the previous study, I decided to test the multispecimen protocol, which can be applied to samples yielding a predominant multidomaine behavior. The main technical drawback of this method lies in the application of the laboratory field along the natural remanent magnetization, a difficult task to perform accurately in standard paleointensity ovens. Thus, we decided to adapt sample holders from our standard oven in order to allow the sample orientation in space and to develop an ultra-fast heating oven prototype particularly well-suited for this method, allowing to apply the laboratory field in the 3 dimensions. I checked the different multispecimen protocols on historical lavas from Reunion and Etna volcano, yielding very different magnetic mineralogies. For all flows, I obtained paleointensities very close from the expected values, regardless from the magnetic mineralogy, revealing the feasibility of our apparatus and the promising interest of the method. The application of various corrections on the statistical estimation of the intensity value or on the cooling rate had no significant impact on my results.
La première partie de ma thèse porte sur l'archéomagnétisme, discipline qui permet de retracer l'évolution temporelle du champ magnétique terrestre au travers des derniers millénaires, principalement à partir des matériaux archéologiques. J'ai étudié deux jeux d'échantillons provenant pour l'un de la Grèce (période néolithique, 6800-3200 avant J.C.) et pour l'autre du Mexique (Palenque, période Maya Classique 320-840 après J.C.), dans le but d'acquérir de nouvelles données d'archéointensité et de mieux contraindre la variation séculaire du champ magnétique terrestre. La comparaison de mes données avec celles disponibles dans la bibliographie et avec les différents modèles globaux et régionaux a mis en évidence que les variations séculaires au Néolithique en Grèce et au cours du premier millénaire en Amérique Centrale sont très mal définies. Mes données suggèrent que des composantes locales, non prisent en compte dans les modèles globaux peuvent exister au niveau de ces régions. Elles renforcent l'intérêt de développer des modèles régionaux précis. Pour ce faire, l'acquisition de nouvelles données de haute qualitéest un élément majeur. La deuxième partie traite de la description d'un renversement du champ magnétique terrestre. Cette étude a été basée sur deux points précis : étudier les directions transitionnelles afin d'apporter de nouvelles contraintes sur le possible confinement longitudinal des pôles géomagnétiques virtuels (PGV) d'une part, et d'autre part vérifier des paléointensités transitionnelles obtenues sur la séquence volcanique d'Akaroa (Nouvelle Zélande), dont l'intensité est significativement supérieure à celles des intensités avant et après le renversement. Nous avons ré-échantillonné cette séquence, et l'évolution directionnelle obtenue pour ce renversement est une succession complexe de polarités N-T-R-T-N-T-R. Les PGV obtenus semblent se regrouper sous deux bandes longitudinales sous l'Australie et l'Amérique, ce qui renforce l'hypothèse d'une interaction entre le manteau et le noyau sur plusieurs millions d'années. Suite à une étude de minéralogie magnétique, j'ai sélectionné les échantillons susceptibles de fournir une valeur de paléointensité par les méthodes de Thellier et du multispecimen. Les paléointensités obtenues sont relativement faibles (environ 20 μT) au cours du changement de polarité et forte à la fin de la séquence. Mon interprétation, basée à la fois sur les valeurs de l'intensité du champ et sur les données radiochronologiques montrant que la séquence s'est mise en place très rapidement, est de considérer que seul le renversement C4Ar.1n-C4Ar.1r a été enregistré dans cette séquence. Dans cette hypothèse, le renversement montre un cheminement complexe comparable à d'autres renversements enregistrés dans l'hémisphère nord (comme celui de la Steens Mountain par exemple), incluant un phénomène de rebond avant de se stabiliser. La troisième partie de ma thèse est consacrée au développement d'une nouvelle méthodologie et d'un nouvel appareillage pour déterminer des paléointensités. Le faible taux de réussite des expériences de paléointensité de l'étude précédente m'a poussé à m'intéresser au protocole multispecimen, qui peut s'appliquer aux échantillons possédant un comportement polydomaine. L'inconvénient technique majeur de cette méthode réside dans l'application du champ le long de l'aimantation naturelle, difficile à réaliser avec précision dans les fours standards. Pour ce faire, nous avons décidé de développer des porte-échantillons permettant d'orienter les échantillons dans l'espace pour le four standard et un prototype de four à chauffage ultra-rapide particulièrement bien adapté avec la possibilité d'orienter le champ appliqué dans les 3 dimensions. J'ai testé les différents protocoles de la méthode sur des laves historiques de la Réunion et de l'Etna, possédant des minéralogies très différentes. Pour l'ensemble des coulées étudiées, j'ai obtenu des paléointensités très proches des valeurs attendues, et ce indépendamment de la minéralogie, révélant ainsi le faisabilité de notre appareillage et le côté prometteur de la méthode. L'application de diverses corrections sur la statistique d'estimation de la valeur de l'intensité ou sur le taux de refroidissement n'ont eu aucun impact notable sur mes résultats.
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00719380

tel-00719380
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00719380
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00719380/document
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00719380/file/thesefanjat2012.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
Evidence of the impact of exposure to low levels of lead on children's health is increasing. Residential floor dust is the assumed origin of lead exposure by young children. In this study, we estimate the contribution of different lead sources to household interior floor dust contamination. We also estimate the within-home variability of interior floor dust lead loadings. A multilevel model was developed based on data collected in a French survey in 2008-2009 (484 housing units, 1834 rooms). Missing data were handled by multiple imputation using chained equations. The intra-home correlation between interior floor Log dust lead loadings was approximately 0.6. Dust lead from the landing of an apartment, mostly originating outside the building, was the major contributor to interior floor dust lead. Secondary contributors included the lead-based paint on exterior railings, track-in of the exterior soil of the children's play area into the dwelling, smoking inside the home, demolition of nearby old buildings and sites of pollution in the vicinity. Interior lead-based paint contaminated interior floor dust only in old and non-renovated dwellings. To reduce interior floor dust lead levels in the general population of dwellings, common areas should be maintained, and track-in from the outside should be limited as much as possible.
ISSN: 0048-9697

hal-01017419
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01017419
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01017419/document
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01017419/file/Source_Contribution_final.pdf
DOI : 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.10.028

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD EDP Sciences
Résumé : International audience
This paper presents a comparison of models for extreme rainfall and flood values. Based on a large set of thousands of rainfall and discharge data, the French ExtraFlo project showed that design estimate of extreme values based on the fitting of a distribution on a limited sample of maximum values is very inaccurate when only a few decades of observation are available. Some interesting alternatives are possible, using a regional approach, or historical data when available, or simulation methods, or sedimentological or geochemical signatures of flood deposits.
Cette communication présente les principaux résultats du projet ExtraFlo sur l'estimation des pluies et crues extrêmes. A partir d'un jeu de données conséquent de plusieurs milliers de stations, une procédure d'inter-comparaison a permis d'évaluer les performances d'une trentaine d'implémentations différentes issues de différentes combinaisons (modèle probabiliste, méthode d'estimation, cadre local / régional / mixte local et régional). Le projet ExtraFlo a permis de mettre en évidence le manque de robustesse des approches basées sur le traitement statistique d'une série de quelques dizaines d'années d'observation. Des alternatives intéressantes existent, basées sur l'exploitation des records de pluie et de débit à l'échelle d'une région, de la collecte de données historiques quand cela est possible, de méthodes de simulation basées sur le couplage d'un générateur d'averses avec un modèle hydrologique pour la transformation des pluies en débit, ou des traces morphologiques laissées par les crues anciennes.
ISSN: 0018-6368

hal-01128341
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01128341
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01128341/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01128341/file/ly2014-pub00041933.pdf
DOI : 10.1051/lhb/2014010

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
Mapping spatial distributions of disease occurrence can serve as a useful tool for identifying exposures of public health concern. Infant mortality is an important indicator of the health status of a population. Recent literature suggests that neighborhood deprivation status can modify the effect of air pollution on preterm delivery, a known risk factor for infant mortality. We investigated the effect of neighborhood social deprivation on the association between exposure to ambient air NO2 and infant mortality in the Lille and Lyon metropolitan areas, north and center of France, respectively, between 2002 and 2009. We conducted an ecological study using a neighborhood deprivation index estimated at the French census block from the 2006 census data. Infant mortality data were collected from local councils and geocoded using the address of residence. We generated maps using generalized additive models, smoothing on longitude and latitude while adjusting for covariates. We used permutation tests to examine the overall importance of location in the model and identify areas of increased and decreased risk. The average death rate was 4.2‰ and 4.6‰ live births for the Lille and Lyon metropolitan areas during the period. We found evidence of statistically significant precise clusters of elevated infant mortality for Lille and an east-west gradient of infant mortality risk for Lyon. Exposure to NO2 did not explain the spatial relationship. The Lille MA, socioeconomic deprivation index explained the spatial variation observed. These techniques provide evidence of clusters of significantly elevated infant mortality risk in relation with the neighborhood socioeconomic status. This method could be used for public policy management to determine priority areas for interventions. Moreover, taking into account the relationship between social and environmental exposure may help identify areas with cumulative inequalities.
ISSN: 0048-9697

inserm-00838330
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00838330
DOI : 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.03.027
PUBMED : 23563257

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Résumé : During the 1982-1984 bradyseismic crises in the Campi Flegrei area (Italy), the University of Wisconsin deployed a network of seismological stations to record local earthquakes. In order to analyse the potential of the recorded data in terms of tomographic imaging, a blind test was recently set up and carried out in the framework of a research project. A model representing a hypothetical 3D structure of the area containing the Campi Flegrei caldera was also set up, and a synthetic dataset of time arrivals was in turn computed. The synthetic dataset consists of several thousand P- and S-time arrivals, computed at about fourteen stations. The tomographic inversion was performed by four independent teams using different methods. The teams had no knowledge of either the input velocity model or the earthquake hypocenters used to create the synthetic dataset. The results obtained by the different groups were compared and analysed in light of the true model. This work provides a thorough analysis of the earthquake tomography potential of the dataset recording the seismic activity at Campi Flegrei in the 1982-1984 period. It shows that all the tested earthquake tomography methods provide reliable low-resolution images of the background velocity field of the Campi Flegrei area, but with some differences. However, none of them succeeds in detecting the hypothetical structure details (i.e. with a size smaller than about 1.5-2 km), such as a magmatic chamber 4 km deep and especially the smaller, isolated bodies, which represent possible magmatic chimneys and intrusions.
ISSN: 1687-885X

hal-00795584
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00795584
DOI : 10.1155/2012/505286

Résumé : Les forêts côtières inondables (FCI) des régions tropicales et subtropicales remplissent des fonctions écologiques nécessaires aux écosystèmes marins côtiers situés en aval et aux populations humaines vivant à proximité Aux Antilles, les mangroves et les forêts marécageuses à Pterocarpus officinalis sont structurés par des espèces ligneuses qui ont développé des adaptations particulières à la salinité, à l’inondation et aux substrats meubles sur lesquels elles reposent. Dans des contextes climatiques à forte saisonnalité, les saisons sèches prolongées entraînent de fortes variations de la salinité et du niveau de la nappe, que le changement climatique devrait amplifier. Les modèles climatiques de la région Caraïbe prévoient des saisons sèches plus sèches liées à une baisse des précipitations de 20 à 50 %. Or, la question des capacités de résistance et d’acclimatation des espèces ligneuses des FCI à des variations saisonnières marquées de leur environnement édaphique a été peu traitée dans la littérature scientifique.L’objectif de ce travail de thèse a été double. Il s’est agi, d'une part, de caractériser la structure et la croissance de faciès de végétation représentatifs des FCI antillaises et de mettre en évidence leurs déterminants. A cet effet, des individus adultes, des espèces ligneuses dominantes des FCI, (Avicennia germinans, Laguncularia racemosa, Pterocarpus officinalis, Rhizophora mangle), dans cinq faciès de végétation sur le gradient terre-mer, ont été suivis sur l'île de Grande-Terre (Guadeloupe). D’autre part, les effets de variations salines extrêmes sur la croissance et l’écophysiologie de ces quatre espèces ont été évalués au stade plantule par une expérience en conditions contrôlées.A travers cette étude, il a été montré que les différences de salinité et de fertilité entre les stationspermettent d’expliquer la composition et la structure des peuplements de FCI. Cette étude a égalementmontré que P. officinalis peut se maintenir dans une gamme de salinité plus large que ne l'indiquait lalittérature.Dans le contexte des Antilles où les marnages sont faibles, la saisonnalité du climat entraine des variations saisonnières importantes d’un ensemble de descripteurs édaphiques tels que le niveau de la nappe, la salinité du sol, le pH et le potentiel RedOx. L’inondation et la salinité des sols sont fortement corrélées aux variations mensuelles des précipitations. Les périodes sèches sont accompagnées de salinités élevées et d’une baisse du niveau de la nappe allant jusqu’à l’exondation des sols dans toutes les stations suivies. Les stress environnementaux liés à la saisonnalité entrainent une baisse de la production primaire. L’accroissement cambial mensuel des individus est fortement corrélé avec les précipitations et l’intensité du vent. Dans les stations de mangrove, la sècheresse édaphique régule la production primaire des palétuviers. En forêt marécageuse, la part de la sècheresse atmosphérique semble plus importante pour expliquer la production de P. officinalis. Aussi, les sècheresses édaphique et atmosphérique doivent être prises en compte toutes deux pour modéliser efficacement la croissance des peuplements des FCI.Lors de la saison sèche, le stress le plus important est le stress hydrique, lié à la diminution de la teneur en eau du sol et à l’augmentation de la salinité, qui entraine des contraintes physiologiques sur les palétuviers (ajustements stomatiques, pertes de surface foliaire et de conductivité hydraulique). Le stress ionique, lié à la toxicité des ions Na+ et Cl-, permet aussi d’expliquer une partie de la contrainte sur l’assimilation en carbone. En saison sèche, l’aération des sols ne se traduit pas par une amélioration des performances de croissance chez toutes les espèces. Aussi, la croissance cambiale maximale de toutes les espèces de FCI est réalisée en saison des pluies lorsque la salinité est faible et les niveaux d’inondation élevés.
In tropical and subtropical regions, flooded coastal forests provide essentials goods and services to local communities. In the Antilles, mangrove forests and the Pterocarpus officinalis swamp forest host tree species that are adapted to salinity, flooding and loose substrates. In areas were climatic seasonality is strong, dry seasons lead to strong fluctuations of soil salinity and water table level ; that climate change is likely to make stronger again. Climate model for the Caribbean project drier dry seasons with a decease of 20 to 50 % in annual rainfall amounts. However, resistance and acclimation ability of flooded coastal forest’s species to strong environmental fluctuations still remain poorly studied.This thesis aims two objectives. On the one hand, it aims to characterize the forest structure and monthly growth of vegetation structures representative of the Antillean flooded coastal forests and to highlight their determinants. In this respect, adult trees of the four dominant species of local flooded coastal forest (Avicennia germinans, Laguncularia racemosa, Pterocarpus officinalis, Rhizophora mangle), in five stations along a sea – land gradient were monitored on the Grande-Terre island (Guadeloupe). On the other hand, the effects of salinity variation patterns and salinity levels on growth performances and physiology of seedlings from the four same species were investigated through a greenhouse experiment.This study shows that differences among average salinity and soil fertility explain the vegetation structure of flooded coastal forest. It also extents, in the literature, the range of salinity in which P. officinalis can stand at the tree stage.In the Antilles were tidal range is small, climate seasonality lead to strong edaphic seasonal variations in water table level, soil salinity, pH and RedOx potential. Flooding and soil salinity are strongly correlated to monthly rainfall amounts: dry periods lead to high salinity and to a decrease in water table level under the soil surface. Seasonal environmental stresses lead to a decrease of primary production. Cambial growth was strongly correlated to monthly precipitation and average wind speed. In mangrove stations, edaphic drought determines primary production of mangrove trees, when, in swamp forest stations, atmospheric drought determines an important part of P. officinalis’ primary production.During the dry season, water stress is the more important environmental stress, both by the decrease in soil humidity and the increase in soil salinity, and leads to physiological strains (stomatal adjustment, loss of leaf area and hydraulic conductivity) for mangrove trees. Ionic toxicity of ions Na+ and Cl- also explains a part of the strain on carbon assimilation. During the dry season, re oxygenation of soils via low water table level does not lead to an increase of physiological traits. Thus, maximum cambial growth of all species is observed during the rainy season, when salinity is low and water table level is high.Flooded coastal forest’s species do not have the same ability to recover after a dry episode. In all the studied stations, A. germinans’ cambial growth rises back as soon as the rainy season starts, when, for one station, cambial growth of L. racemosa and R. mangle stay null during the three first month of the rainy season. This low ability to recover after a dry episode is correlated to a stronger impact of the dry season on the physiological traits of these two species.The greenhouse experiment shows that salinity variation patterns are to be taken into consideration for explaining seedlings’ growth and salinity tolerance. A stronger salinity increase impacts the growth of all the studied species; a punctual drop of salinity highlights that flooded coastal forest’s species differ in ability to take advantage of a low salinity episode. These results are coherent with field observations as cambial growth was fairly explained by monthly precipitation.

http://www.theses.fr/2013AGUY0674/document

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : Best paper for innovative research
International audience
This paper investigates the interest of using the Kinematic Theory of rapid human movements to analyseand evaluate the handwriting produced by young kindergarten children in typical classroom environment. A total of66 children participated in this trial. For the preliminary results reported herein, movements from 15 children, takenevenly from three different levels (3, 4, and 5 years old), were analyzed. Our results confirm that 1) the sigmalognormalequation can model accurately childen’s movement and 2) that this modeling can differentiate betweenchildren of different school levels, hence supporting the relevance of pursuing along this original pathway.
Recent Progress in Graphonomics: Learn from the Past. IGS 2013
Nara, Japan

hal-01098125
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01098125