Résumé : The management of marine fish stocks has stayed non-spatial, considering spatial distributions and their consequences on demography as implicit. But the impacts of climate change and the anthropisation of habitats now require to consider spatial procedures explicitly. The work presented here starts with the question of evaluating population abundance, which requires the modelling of spatial distributions (section 1). Then an ecological understanding of the multi-scale nature of distributions is investigated (section 2). Last, we study how demographic population dynamics depends on the spatial organisation of life cycles (section 3). In this work, the approach has been to combine data acquisition at sea with statistical characterisation and modelling. The application of geostatistics to fisheries survey data provided a solution to abundance evaluation and mapping for many different survey designs. A variety of models were implemented (stationary, non-stationary, non-linear, multivariate, spatio-temporal), depending on the statistical characteristics of the data and the problem posed. Sampling bias were identified by combining different survey methods. New procedures for assessing stocks based on indicators including spatial ones were developed, which prepared for ecosystem assessments. (...)
La gestion des stocks de poissons marins est longtemps restée a-spatiale, considérant implicites les mécanismes d’organisation spatiale qui soutiennent la distribution géographique des ressources et leur dynamique démographique. Mais l’impact du changement climatique et l’anthropisation des habitats nécessitent d’en tenir compte explicitement. Partant de questions d’évaluation qui ont nécessité la modélisation des distributions spatiales (section 1), le déterminisme écologique de ces distributions a ensuite été abordé à différentes échelles (section 2) puis ont été envisagées les conséquences de l’organisation spatiale sur la dynamique démographique des populations (section 3). L’approche scientifique suivie intègre l’acquisition de données à la mer, la caractérisation statistique et la modélisation. L’application de la géostatistique aux données des campagnes halieutiques permet de proposer une solution à l’estimation d’abondance et la cartographie pour une variété de plans d’échantillonnage. Différents modèles sont mis en oeuvre (stationnaires, non-stationnaires, non-linéaires, multivariés, spatio-temporels) en fonction du comportement des données et du problème posé. Des biais d’échantillonnage sont identifiés en combinant différentes méthodes d’échantillonnage. Des procédures nouvelles d’évaluation de stocks à partir d’indicateurs dont des indicateurs spatiaux sont développées, qui préparent à l’évaluation des écosystèmes. (...)

Droits : Ifremer, UPMC
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00013/12410/9197.pdf
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00013/12410/

Éditeur(s) : Université des Antilles et de la Guyane
Résumé : The need for an integrated approach to fisheries is now widely affirmed, including the FAO, in particular in the context of tropical artisanal fisheries. These small-scale fisheries, often multispecies are very important in terms of production, employment and food security. However these fisheries and the exploited resources are often characterized by a lack of data making difficult their management within an ecosystem approach, and by the ecological and economic system complexities including trophic and technological interactions. This thesis aims to contribute to the development of bioeconomic tools for small tropical fisheries in a sustainable management perspective based on the ecosystem approach. In this perspective, the French Guiana coastal fishery constitutes an interesting case study. The thesis proposes multi-criteria evaluations, complex bioeconomic models and viable management scenarios for this fishery. At first, multivariate statistical analysis suggests a satisfactory overall status of the fishery in terms of sustainability. However, some performance differences are noted within the fishery, particularly at border areas. Also, management improvements are proposed. Then, through bioeconomic modeling, projections of different fishing scenarios show that, in the long-term, the current exploitation level may not be consistent with the future increase of local demand and a loss of biodiversity may occur. A scenario called "co-viability" reconciling ecological, economic and social objectives, with a high probability of achievement is exhibited. Finally, the comparison of optimal behavior in cooperative and non-cooperative conditions, confirms that harvest levels are greater when actors do not cooperate. Furthermore, it is shown that the state of the ecosystem depends on the fishing strategies and the type of interaction between species. Beyond the diagnosis made for the case study, the method is promising in the context of small tropical fisheries, while the co-viability approach allows finding the exploitation conditions under which ecological and socio-economic sustainability are meet, what the conventional fisheries management generally do not allow.
La nécessité d’une approche intégrée des pêches est actuellement largement affirmée, notamment par la FAO, en particulier dans le contexte des pêcheries artisanales tropicales. Ces pêcheries à petites échelles, souvent multi-spécifiques sont très importantes en termes d’emploi et de production, y compris pour la sécurité alimentaire. Néanmoins ces pêcheries et la biodiversité exploitées sont souvent marquées, d’une part, par le manque de données rendant difficile leur gestion dans le cadre d’une approche écosystémique, d’autre part, par la complexité des systèmes écologiques et économiques sous-jacents incluant interactions trophiques et techniques. Cette thèse contribue à la mise au point d’outils bioéconomiques adaptés aux petites pêcheries tropicales dans la perspective d’une gestion durable des pêches fondée sur l’approche écosystémique. Dans cette perspective, la pêcherie côtière en Guyane Française constitue un cas d’étude particulièrement fécond. La thèse propose ainsi des évaluations multi-critères, des modèles bioéconomiques complexes et des scénarios de gestion viable pour cette pêcherie. Dans un premier temps l’analyse statistique multivariée suggère un statut global satisfaisant de la pêcherie en termes de durabilité. Cependant des différences de performance sont notées au sein de la pêcherie, notamment au niveau des zones frontalières. Aussi des améliorations dans le mode de gestion sont proposées. Ensuite, à travers la modélisation bioéconomique, les projections des différents scénarios de pêche montrent qu’à long terme le niveau d’exploitation actuel peut ne pas être en adéquation avec la future augmentation de la demande locale et qu’une perte de biodiversité peut avoir lieu. Un scenario dit de "co-viabilité" conciliant des objectifs à la fois écologique, économique et social, avec une probabilité de réalisation satisfaisante, est mis en exergue. Enfin, la comparaison des comportements optimaux en situation coopératif et non coopératif, montre dans quelle mesure la viabilité est favorisée quand les acteurs coopèrent. Au-delà du diagnostic apporté pour le cas d’étude, la méthode utilisée s’avère prometteuse dans le contexte des petites pêcheries tropicales, tandis que l’approche de co-viabilité permet de trouver les modalités d’exploitation dans le cadre de compromis entre durabilité écologique et socio-économique, ce que les principes de gestion halieutiques traditionnels ne permettent généralement pas.

Droits : 2013 Université des Antilles et de la Guyane
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00144/25492/23646.pdf
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00144/25492/

Éditeur(s) : Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Rennes
Résumé : Long-line fishing has been growing on the island of La Réunion since the beginning of the 1990s. The target species is the swordfish (Xiphias gladius), fished mainly in the tropical waters surrounding the island between longitudes 45 degree E and 60 degree E, and latitudes 17 degree S and 27 degree S. From 1998 to 2000, a finalised research programme enabled the collection of precise data concerning the lines' positions and the parameters of the fishing efforts: 3,602 nettings were thus informed by the catches (in numbers of individuals caught) and 12 descriptive variables of the effort. In parallel with this collection effort, satellite maps that described the ocean's landscape of this region of the Indian Ocean exploited by La Réunion's fisheries were made available to sailors and scientists. Extractions from these environmental variables were made at the fishing lines' positions, which allowed us to propose 20 variables describing the environmental conditions of swordfish catches applied to the nettings. In an early part of this study, after a descriptive analysis and a first selection of the variables, we used several GAM (Generalised Additive Models) to model the respective effects of effort and environmental variables on the variability of swordfish catches. We thus highlighted the predominance of factors linked to fishermen (fishing effort) on oceanographic factors in the explanation of this variability. Following these results, a summary on the biology and ecology of the swordfish was proposed in order to draw up hypotheses on the characteristics of this species' population in the Indian Ocean. The aspects linked to the individual behaviour and movements of the population were particularly highlighted. In a latter part of this study and in order to complete the empirical approach by an exploratory constructivist approach, we proposed a modelling tool in order to simulate the possible movements of individuals within the oceanic landscape described by the available satellite maps. After reading in the literature about the various forms of modelling the movements of the large pelagics, we developed an original computer modelling architecture of the multi-agent type that made it possible to manipulate in a dynamic way the satellite maps (and derived products), the individual movements of "animats" whose behaviours were based on this environmental information, and agents that clarify the process of long-line fishing in a geographical way. The computer model that was implemented (MUFINS, for MUlti-Fish INdian ocean Simulator) was next used by calibrating the behaviour of the animats on the real data originally from the analysis of commercial catches proposed in the first part, using robust techniques based on fuzzy logic. The results of the simulations were compared, on the one hand, with the large-scale hypotheses of movement proposed in the first part, and, on the other hand, to swordfish catches both real and corrected for the effect of the fishing effort modelled by the GAM models. Even if the results of these simulations in this study do not allow for proposing convincing interpretations of the underlying processes, the MUFINS tool showed its ability to address questions associated with the swordfish's behaviour in the tropical oceanic landscape and to the effects of scale transfers between the individual level and the collective level. We now envisage its use in a more operational framework, as an interface for dialogue between fishermen and scientists with a goal of sustainable management of the resource.
La peche palangriere s'est developpee a l'ile de La Reunion depuis le debut des annees 1990. L'espece cible est l'espadon (Xiphias gladius), principalement exploite dans les eaux tropicales autour de l'ile entre les longitudes 45 degree E et 60 degree E, et les latitudes 17 degree S et 27 degree S. De 1998 a 2000, un programme de recherche finalisee a permis de collecter des informations precises concernant les positions des lignes et les parametres de l'effort de peche : 3602 filages sont ainsi renseignes par les captures (en nombre d'individus captures) et 12 variables descriptives de l'effort. En parallele de cet effort de collecte, des cartes satellitales ont pu etre mises a la disposition des marins et des scientifiques, decrivant le paysage oceanique de cette region de l'ocean Indien exploitee par la pecherie reunionnaise. Des extractions de ces variables environnementales ont ete effectuees aux positions des lignes de peche, nous permettant de proposer 20 variables descriptives des conditions environnementales de captures d'espadon appliquees aux filages. Dans une premiere partie de ce travail, apres une analyse descriptive et une premiere selection des variables, on a modelise par plusieurs modeles GAM (Generalized Additive Models) les effets respectifs des variables d'effort et des variables environnementales sur la variabilite des captures d'espadon. On a ainsi mis en evidence la predominance des facteurs lies aux pecheurs (effort de peche) sur les facteurs oceanographiques dans le caractere explicatif de cette variabilite. A la suite de ces resultats, une synthese sur la biologie et l'ecologie de l'espadon a ete proposee afin de degager des hypotheses sur les caracteristiques de la population de cette espece dans l'ocean Indien. Les aspects lies au comportement individuel et aux deplacements de la population ont ete particulierement mis en evidence. Dans une deuxieme partie de ce travail et afin de completer l'approche empirique par une approche constructiviste exploratoire, nous avons propose un outil de modelisation afin de simuler les deplacements possibles d'individus au sein du paysage oceanique decrit par les cartes satellitales disponibles. Apres avoir passe en revue dans la litterature les differentes formes de modelisation des deplacements des grands, pelagiques, nous avons developpe une architecture originale de modelisation informatique de type multi-agents permettant de manipuler de maniere dynamique les cartes satellitales (et les produits derives), les mouvements individuels < d'animats >, dont les comportements sont bases sur cette information environnementale, et des agents qui explicitent le processus de capture palangriere de maniere geographique. Le modele informatique ainsi implemente (MUFINS, pour MUlti-Fish INdian ocean Simulator) a ensuite ete utilise en calibrant les comportements des animats sur les donnees reelles issues de l'analyse des captures commerciales proposee en premiere partie, a partir de techniques robustes basee sur la logique floue. Les resultats des simulations ont ete confrontes d'une part aux hypotheses de deplacement a grande echelle proposees en premiere partie, et d'autre part aux captures d'espadon reelles et corrigees de l'effet de l'effort de peche modelise par les modeles GAM. Meme si les resultats de simulations presentes dans ce travail ne permettent pas de proposer d'interpretations convaincantes des processus sous-jacents, l'outil MUFINS a demontre son aptitude a aborder les questions liees au comportement de l'espadon dans le paysage oceanique tropical et aux effets des transferts d'echelle entre le niveau individuel et le niveau collectif. On envisage desormais son utilisation dans un cadre plus operationnel, comme interface de dialogue entre les pecheurs et les scientifiques a des fins de gestion durable de la ressource.

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2005/these-2592.pdf
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/2592/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : To understand the effect of inherited lithospheric structures on the continental plates deformation process, we have developed a multi scale model that explicitly takes into account an anisotropic viscosity due to the Crystal Preferred Orientation (CPO) of olivine in the mantle by coupling a viscoplastic self-consistent simulation of the deformation at the polycrystalline aggregate to a 3D Finite Element code. Using this tool, we calculate the mechanical behavior of a continental lithosphere submitted to extension for various initial structures. The first set of experiments investigates the deformation of a plate with a homogeneous initial olivine CPO. Results show that the macroscopic anisotropy is strongly dependent on the initial orientation of the olivine CPO relative to the solicitation and to its evolution. The second set of experiments aims to analyze the deformation of a continental plate containing pre-existing lithospheric scale shear zones. These multi-domain models show that the olivine mechanical anisotropy may induce the reactivation of pre-existing lithospheric scale shear zones in a plate submitted to rifting. In both cases, the results shows that the macroscopic mechanic anisotropy induced by the evolution of olivine CPO in the upper mantle is a key parameter to understand the deformation of the continental plates and to explain the observed reactivation of inherited structure from past tectonics events
Afin de comprendre l'effet des structures préexistantes sur la déformation des plaques continentales, nous avons développé une méthode de modélisation mécanique multi-échelle utilisant une viscosité anisotrope induite par les Orientations Préférentielles du Réseau (OPR) des cristaux d'olivine présents dans le manteau. Cette méthode en couple le calcul viscoplastique autocohérent de la déformation d'un agrégat d'olivine à un code éléments finis 3D. Elle a été utilisée pour le calcul du comportement mécanique d'une plaque continentale soumise à une extension. Une première série d'expériences numériques sur l'extension de plaque lithosphérique présentant des OPR initiales d'olivine homogènes a permis de montrer que l'anisotropie mécanique macroscopique est fortement dépendante de l'orientation initiale de l'OPR. La seconde série de simulations analyse l'extension d'une plaque continentale présentant une zone présentant des OPR d'olivine héritées d'un événement tectonique précédant. Les résultats de ces calculs multi-domaines que l'anisotropie mécanique de l'olivine peut expliquer la réactivation des zones de cisaillement héritées lors du rifting. Les résultats obtenus dans les deux séries de modèles montrent que l'anisotropie mécanique macroscopique induite par l'évolution des OPR d'olivine dans le manteau supérieur est un paramètre clé pour la compréhension de la déformation des plaques continentales et pour expliquer la réactivation observée de structures tectoniques, tels que les grands décrochements, lors des épisodes tectoniques ultérieurs.
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00369463

tel-00369463
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00369463
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00369463/document
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00369463/file/KnollThese09.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Springer Verlag (Germany) Springer Verlag
Résumé : Production rates in horizontal shale gas wells display declines that are controlled by the low permeability and the intrinsic heterogeneity of the shale matrix. We present an original multi-continuum approach that yields a physical model able to reproduce the complexity of the decreasing gas rates. The model describes the dynamics of gas rate as function of the physical reservoir parameters and geometry, while the shale matrix heterogeneity is accounted for by a stochastic description of transmissivity field. From the 3D (Dimensional) problem setting, including the heterogeneous shale matrix, the fractures generated by the hydrofracking operations, as well as the production well characteristics, we establish an effective upscaled 1D model for the gas pressures in fracture and matrix as well as the volumetric flux. We analyse the decline curves behaviour, and we identify the time scales that characterize the dynamics of the gas rate decline using explicit analytical Laplace space solutions of the upscaled process model. Asymptotically, the flux curves decrease exponentially, while in an intermediate regime we find a power-law behaviour, in which the flux scales with a power law in time as (t^{-beta }), where (beta ) reflects the medium heterogeneity. We use this solution to fit a set of real data displaying distinctly different decline trends and study the sensitivity of the model to the reservoir parameters in order to identify their respective controls at the different stages of the decline curve dynamics. Results indicate that the initial value of the gas rate is determined by the transmissivity of the fractures and the initial pressure of the gas in the shale matrix. The latter causes mainly a shift in the entire decline curve. The early time of decline curve shape is primarily controlled by the fracture properties (compressibility and transmissivity). During the main part of the economically valuable production times, i.e. before the production rate drops exponentially, the decline curve is strongly controlled by the properties of the shale rocks including their heterogeneity, which is modelled by two parameters describing the non-Fickian pressure diffusion effects in a stochastic framework.
ISSN: 0169-3913

hal-01217247
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01217247
DOI : 10.1007/s11242-015-0504-y

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union
Résumé : International audience
Earth deformation is a multi-scale process ranging from seconds (seismic deformation) to millions of years (tectonic deformation). Bridging short- and long-term deformation and developing seismotectonic models has been a challenge in experimental tectonics for more than a century. Since the formulation of Reid's elastic rebound theory 100 years ago, laboratory mechanical models combining frictional and elastic elements have been used to study the dynamics of earthquakes. In the last decade, with the advent of high-resolution monitoring techniques and new rock analogue materials, laboratory earthquake experiments have evolved from simple spring-slider models to scaled analogue models. This evolution was accomplished by advances in seismology and geodesy along with relatively frequent occurrences of large earthquakes in the past decade. This coincidence has significantly increased the quality and quantity of relevant observations in nature and triggered a new understanding of earthquake dynamics. We review here the developments in analogue earthquake modelling with a focus on those seismotectonic scale models that are directly comparable to observational data on short to long timescales. We lay out the basics of analogue modelling, namely scaling, materials and monitoring, as applied in seismotectonic modelling. An overview of applications highlights the contributions of analogue earthquake models in bridging timescales of observations including earthquake statistics, rupture dynamics, ground motion, and seismic-cycle deformation up to seismotectonic evolution.
ISSN: 1869-9510

hal-01553120
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01553120
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01553120/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01553120/file/rosenau2017.pdf
DOI : 10.5194/se-8-597-2017

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : The purpose of this thesis is to improve the knowledge about and apply data mining techniques and some Bayesian model in the field of social and environmental health inequalities. On the neighborhood scale on the Paris, Marseille, Lyon and Lille metropolitan areas, the health event studied is infant mortality. We try to explain its risk with socio-economic data retrieved from the national census and environmental exposures such as air pollution, noise, proximity to traffic, green spaces and industries. The thesis is composed of two parts. The data mining part details the development of a procedure of creation of multidimensional socio-economic indices and of an R package that implements it, followed by the creation of a cumulative exposure index. In this part, data mining techniques are used to synthesize information and provide composite indicators amenable for direct usage by stakeholders or in the framework of epidemiological studies. The second part is about Bayesian models. It explains the "BYM" model. This model allows to take into account the spatial dimension of the data when estimating mortality risks. In both cases, the methods are exposed and several results of their usage in the above-mentioned context are presented. We also show the value of the socio-economic index procedure, as well as the existence of social inequalities of infant mortality in the studied metropolitan areas.
Cette thèse a pour but d'améliorer les connaissances concernant les techniques d'analyse de données et certains modèles bayésiens dans le domaine de l'étude des inégalités sociales et environnementales de santé. À l'échelle géographique de l'IRIS sur les agglomérations de Paris, Marseille, Lyon et Lille, l'événement sanitaire étudié est la mortalité infantile dont on cherchera à expliquer le risque avec des données socio-économiques issues du recensement et des expositions environnementales comme la pollution de l'air, les niveaux de bruit et la proximité aux industries polluantes, au trafic automobile ou aux espaces verts. Deux volets principaux composent cette thèse. Le volet analyse de données détaille la mise au point d'une procédure de création d'indices socio-économiques multidimensionnels et la conception d'un package R l'implémentant, puis la création d'un indice de multi-expositions environnementales. Pour cela, on utilise des techniques d'analyse de données pour synthétiser l'information et fournir des indicateurs composites utilisables directement par les décideurs publics ou dans le cadre d'études épidémiologiques. Le second volet concerne les modèles bayésiens et explique le modèle " BYM ". Celui-ci permet de prendre en compte les aspects spatiaux des données et est mis en œuvre pour estimer le risque de mortalité infantile. Dans les deux cas, les méthodes sont présentées et différents résultats de leur utilisation dans le contexte ci-dessus exposés. On montre notamment l'intérêt de la procédure de création d'indices socio-économiques et de multi-expositions, ainsi que l'existence d'inégalités sociales de mortalité infantile dans les agglomérations étudiées.
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00943004

tel-00943004
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00943004
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00943004/document
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00943004/file/Manuscrit_LallouA_final.pdf

Résumé : L'agriculture actuelle est impliquée dans de multiples problématiques environnementales, sociales et économiques, aux échelles locales et globales. En agronomie, de nombreux travaux à l'échelle du champ et de l'exploitation visent aujourd'hui à concevoir des systèmes de culture et des systèmes de production en lien avec ces problématiques. En revanche, peu de travaux portent sur la conception et l'évaluation de systèmes agricoles à l'échelle du territoire, alors que cette échelle apparaît pourtant incontournable pour faire face à des enjeux de développement durable. Pour combler ce manque, nous proposons un ensemble méthodologique permettant i) de simuler les conséquences de scénarios de politiques agricoles sur les choix d'assolement des agriculteurs, décrits individuellement, en modélisant l'évolution de leurs système de production et ii) d'évaluer l'impact de ces changements d'assolements à l'échelle du territoire, à l'aide d'indicateurs qui apportent de l'information spatiale sur la contribution de l'agriculture au développement durable. L'ensemble méthodologique proposé débute par la construction d'une typologie des exploitations agricoles du territoire sur la base de la similarité de leur assolement. Parallèlement, l'adaptation d'indicateurs à l'échelle du territoire permet d'évaluer les impacts des externalités des systèmes de culture en mobilisant des procédures de changements d'échelles. Un modèle bioéconomique générique, multi-échelle, spatialement explicite, appelé MOSAICA, qui utilise la typologie et les indicateurs d'impact de l'agriculture à l'échelle régionale, est créé pour produire des mosaïques de systèmes de culture et évalue leur contribution au développement durable du territoire. Ce modèle, couplé à un itinéraire de définition de scénarios exploratoires et normatifs permet de tester l'impact de différents types de leviers agronomiques, socio-économiques, environnementaux, organisationnels et techniques sur les choix des exploitants et in fine sur la contribution de la mosaïque de systèmes de culture au développement durable du territoire. Nous avons appliqué cet ensemble méthodologique à la conception de scénarios de développement agricoles durables en Guadeloupe. Nous avons dans un premier temps développé une typologie des systèmes de production comprenant huit types distincts et relevant de processus décisionnel différents. Puis nous avons adapté à l'échelle du territoire 19 indicateurs pour l'évaluation des mosaïques de systèmes de culture. L’évaluation de la mosaïque actuelle nous a permis de repérer de faibles niveaux de contribution aux enjeux d’autonomie alimentaire et énergétique. Différents scénarios normatifs et exploratoires intégrant des leviers de changement de la mosaïque ont été testés avec MOSAICA. Les évaluations réalisées nous ont permis d'identifier que des leviers agronomiques comme le développement du maraîchage sans intrants chimiques et des leviers sociaux comme la formation de main-d'oeuvre supplémentaire permettraient d'améliorer la contribution de l’agriculture au développement durable du territoire Guadeloupéen. La modélisation mécaniste de l’évolution du territoire agricole permet d'intégrer des connaissances sur la localisation, les performances, les impacts des systèmes de culture et sur les processus décisionnels des exploitants régissant l’orientation productive et le fonctionnement des exploitations. Cette démarche permet de visualiser les changements de système de culture et leurs impacts de manière spatialement explicite, ce qui permet de générer des connaissances sur les leviers susceptibles de faire évoluer positivement l'agriculture du territoire. La démarche et les outils mis en oeuvre sont donc particulièrement utiles pour l'aide à la décision publique pour améliorer la durabilité de l'agriculture dans son ensemble.
Current agricultural systems are responsible for many different environmental, social and economic issues at both local and global scales. Agricultural sciences have contributed to the design of several methods at the farm and field scale in order to prototype cropping systems and farming systems to address these issues. However, few methods have been designed at the regional scale, while this scale seems to be essential in order to address these issues. In order to fill this gap, we here propose a new methodological framework for i) simulating the consequences of policy changes on farmer's cropping plan, described individually, by modeling the evolution of farming systems and to ii) assess the impacts of cropping system changes at the regional scale, with a set of indicators that generate spatially explicit information on the contribution of agriculture to sustainable development. The methodological framework starts with the design of a farm typology over the territory based on the similarity of farmer's crop acreages. In parallel, a set of indicators is adapted to the landscape scale in order to assess the impacts of cropping system externalities by integrating a set of scale change procedures. A generic, multi-scale, spatially explicit bioeconomic model called MOSAICA, which uses the farm typology and the indicators, is created for generating cropping system mosaics and assessing their contribution to sustainable development. This model coupled to a scenario approach composed of exploratory and normative scenarios can simulate the impact of several types of agronomic, socio-economic, environmental, organizational and technical levers of change on the farmer's choices in terms of cropping systems and in fine the impacts of new cropping system mosaics on the contribution to sustainable development of territories. We applied this methodological framework for building scenarios of sustainable agricultural development in Guadeloupe. We first developed a typology of farming systems encompassing eight types of farming systems that revealed several different farmer's decision processes. Then, we developed 19 indicators to assess cropping system mosaics. The assessment of the current cropping system mosaic showed low levels of response of the current mosaic to economic and social issues especially the food and energy self-sufficiency. Different normative and exploratory scenarios integrating levers of change have been simulated with MOSAICA. The assessment of cropping system mosaics from these scenarios highlighted the positive effect of agronomic levers of change such as organic crop-gardening and social levers such as the vocational training of supplementary workforce for improving the contribution of agriculture to sustainable development of the guadeloupean territory. The mechanistic modeling of the agricultural territory allows us to integrate a wide range of knowledge on the location of cropping systems, their levels of performance , their impacts and the decision process of farmer's that drive the farming system characteristics and the farm functioning. This methodological framework helps visualize the cropping system changes at the regional scale and their associated impacts at the landscape scale which is helpful in order to produce knowledge on the levers of change that can improve the response of local agriculture to local and global issues. The framework and tools designed are particularly useful for decision-aid on the future levels of contribution of agriculture to sustainable development.

http://www.theses.fr/2015AGUY0823/document

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
We use a strike-slip fault analog model to study experimentally the role played by along-fault non-uniform and asymmetric applied normal stress on both coseismic slip and long-term fault behavior. Our model is based on a visco-elasto-plastic multi-layered rheology that allows to produce several hundreds of scaled analog microquakes and associated seismic cycles. Uniform or heterogeneous applied normal stress along the fault plane is imposed and maintained constant during the whole experiment durations. Our results suggest that coseismic slip patterns are strongly controlled by spatial normal stress variations and subsequent accumulated shear stress along fault strike. Major microquakes occur preferentially in zones of major shear stress asperities. Coseismic slip distributions exhibit a pattern similar to the along-fault applied normal stress distribution. The occurrence of isolated low to moderate microquakes where residual stresses persist around secondary stress asperities, indicates that stress conditions along the fault also control the whole variability of fault slip events. Moreover, when fault slip stability conditions are modulated by normal stress distribution, our experiments suggest that the along-fault stress heterogeneity influences the seismic cycle regularity and, consequently, long-term fault slip behavior. Uniform applied normal stress favors irregular seismic cycles and the occurrence of earthquakes clustering, whereas non-uniform normal stress with a single high amplitude stress asperity generates strong characteristic microquake events with stable return periods. Together our results strengthen the assumption that coseismic slip distribution and earthquake variability along an active fault may provide relevant information on long term tectonic stress and could thus improve seismic hazard assessment.
ISSN: 0012-821X

hal-01666379
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01666379
DOI : 10.1016/j.epsl.2017.10.009

Éditeur(s) : Cambridge Univ Press
Résumé : This paper offers a theoritical and empirical model of ecosystem-based fishery management. A multi-species and multi-fleet integrating Lotka-Volterra trophic dynamics as well as production and profit assessments is developed and applied to the coastal fishery of French Guiana. This small-scale fishery constitutes a challenging example with high fish biodiversity, several non-selective fleets and a potentially increasing local food demand due to demographic growth. The dynamic model is calibrated with 13 species and four fleets using monthly catch and effort data from 2006 to 2009. Several contrasted fishing scenarios including status quo, total closure, economic and viable strategies are then simulated. They are compared from the viewpoints of both biodiversity preservation and socioeconomic performance, assuming fixed landing prices and fixed costs. We show that fishing outputs, including food supply and fleet profitability, can be sustained on average but a loss of species cannot be avoided.
Environment And Development Economics (1355-770X) (Cambridge Univ Press), 2013-06 , Vol. 18 , P. 245-269

Droits : Cambridge University Press 2013
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00124/23483/21311.pdf
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00124/23483/21375.pdf
DOI:10.1017/S1355770X13000065
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00124/23483/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier Masson
Résumé : Contaminant migration in aquifers is one of the most debated issues in hydrogeology, as most experimental results display large deviations from the standard (asymptotic) Fickian dispersion theories. Multi-scale investigation and high-resolution sensors are required to determine the origin of non-asymptotic dispersion and validate models. For this, a set of multi-scale Single-Well Injection-Withdrawal (SWIW) tracer tests using a new dual-packer probe CoFIS, including a high resolution optical sensor TELog, are presented. When compared to standard techniques such as salinity measurements, it is shown that high-resolution optical measurements allow an improved characterization of the long-lasting non-asymptotic dispersion mechanisms.
ISSN: 1631-0713

hal-00445250
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00445250
DOI : 10.1016/j.crte.2009.07.012

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
Cratons represent the oldest preserved lithospheric domains. Their lithosphere (lithospheric mantle welded to overlying Precambrian crystalline basement) is considered to be particularly robust and long-lived due to the protecting presence of buoyant and rigid “keels” made up of residual harzburgites. Although the cratons are mostly assumed to form in the Archaean, the timing of their formation remains poorly constrained. In particular, there are very few datasets describing concurrently the age of both the crustal and mantle portions of the lithosphere. In this study, we report new U–Pb ages and Hf isotope compositions for zircons in crustal xenoliths from the Udachnaya kimberlite in the central Siberian craton; this dataset includes samples from both the upper and lower portions of the crust. The zircon ages agree well with model melt-extraction Re–Os ages on refractory peridotite xenoliths from the same pipe; taken together they allow an integrated view of lithosphere formation. Our data reveal that the present day upper crust is Archaean, whereas both the lower crust and the lithospheric mantle yield Paleoproterozoic ages. We infer that the deep lithosphere beneath the Siberian craton was not formed in a single Archaean event, but grew in at least two distinct events, one in the late Archaean and the other in the Paleoproterozoic. Importantly, a complete or large-scale delamination and rejuvenation of the Archaean lower lithosphere (lower crust and lithospheric mantle) took place in the Paleoproterozoic. This further demonstrates that craton formation can be a protracted, multi-stage process, and that the present day crust and mantle may not represent complementary reservoirs formed through the same tectono-magmatic event. Further, deep cratonic lithosphere may be less robust and long living than often assumed, with rejuvenation and replacement events throughout its history.
ISSN: 0012-821X

hal-01467648
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01467648
DOI : 10.1016/j.epsl.2016.09.046

Résumé : La nécessité d'une approche intégrée des pêches est actuellement largement affirmée, notamment par la FAO, en particulier dans le contexte des pêcheries artisanales tropicales. Ces pêcheries à petites échelles, souvent multi-spécifiques sont très importantes en termes d'emploi et de production, y compris pour la sécurité alimentaire. Néanmoins ces pêcheries et la biodiversité exploitées sont souvent marquées, d'une part, par le manque de données rendant difficile leur gestion dans le cadre d'une approche écosystémique, d'autre part, par la complexité des systèmes écologiques et économiques sous-jacents incluant interactions trophiques et techniques.Cette thèse contribue à la mise au point d'outils bioéconomiques adaptés aux petites pêcheries tropicales dans la perspective d'une gestion durable des pêches fondée sur l'approche écosystémique. Dans cette perspective, la pêcherie côtière en Guyane Française constitue un cas d'étude particulièrement fécond. La thèse propose ainsi des évaluations multi-critères, des modèles bioéconomiques complexes et des scénarios de gestion viable pour cette pêcherie.Dans un premier temps l'analyse statistique multi-variée suggère un statut global satisfaisant de la pêcherie en termes de durabilité. Cependant des différences de performance sont notées au sein de la pêcherie, notamment au niveau des zones frontalières. Aussi des améliorations dans le mode de gestion sont proposées. Ensuite, à travers la modélisation bioéconomique, les projections des différents scénarios de pêche montrent qu'à long terme le niveau d'exploitation actuel peut ne pas être en adéquation avec la future augmentation de la demande locale et qu'une perte de biodiversité peut avoir lieu. Un scénario dit de « co-viabilité » conciliant des objectifs à la fois écologique, économique et social, avec une probabilité de réalisation satisfaisante, est mis en exergue. Enfin, la comparaison des comportements optimaux en situation coopératif et non coopératif, montre dans quelle mesure la viabilité est favorisée quand les acteurs coopèrent. Au-delà du diagnostic apporté pour le cas d'étude, la méthode utilisée s'avère prometteuse dans le contexte des petites pêcheries tropicales, tandis que l'approche de « co-viabilité » permet de trouver les modalités d'exploitation dans le cadre de compromis entre durabilité écologique et socio-économique, ce que les principes de gestion halieutiques traditionnels ne permettent généralement pas.
The need for an integrated approach to fisheries is now widely affirmed, including the FAO, in particular in the context of tropical artisanal fisheries. These small-scale fisheries, often multispecies are very important in terms of production, employment and food security. However these fisheries and the exploited resources are often characterized by a lack of data making difficult their management within an ecosystem approach, and by the ecological and economic system complexities including trophic and technological interactions.This thesis aims to contribute to the development of bioeconomic tools for small tropical fisheries in a sustainable management perspective based on the ecosystem approach. In this perspective, the French Guiana coastal fishery constitutes an interesting case study. The thesis proposes multi-criteria evaluations, complex bioeconomic models and viable management scenarios for this fishery. At first, multivariate statistical analysis suggests a satisfactory overall status of the fishery in terms of sustainability. However, some performance differences are noted within the fishery, particularly at border areas. Also, management improvements are proposed. Then, through bioeconomic modeling, projections of different fishing scenarios show that, in the long term, the current exploitation level may not be consistent with the future increase of local demand and a loss of biodiversity may occur. A scenario called "co-viability" reconciling ecological, economic and social objectives, with a high probability of achievement is exhibited. Finally, the comparison of optimal behavior in cooperative and non-cooperative conditions, confirms that harvest levels are greater when actors do not cooperate. Furthermore, it is shown that the state of the ecosystem depends on the fishing strategies and the type of interaction between species. Beyond the diagnosis made for the case study, the method is promising in the context of small tropical fisheries, while the co-viability approach allows finding the exploitation conditions under which ecological and socio-economic sustainability are meet, what the conventional fisheries management generally do not allow.

http://www.theses.fr/2013AGUY0620/document

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
The kinetics of hydrogenation of dry iron-bearing olivine single crystals was determined by performing hydration experiments under hydrothermal conditions at high pressure. The experiments were performed in a multi-anvil press at 3 GPa, for a temperature range between 900 and 1200 °C and for various durations. The oxygen fugacity was buffered along Ni-NiO joint. Polarized Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and recent empirical calibration were used to quantify the hydroxyl distributions in the samples along crystallographic axes after the experiments. The chemical diffusion coefficients are similar (barely slower) than in olivine hydrated at lower pressure (0.2 and 0.3 GPa) for the same diffusion mechanism. Under the given experimental conditions, the anisotropy of diffusion is the same as for proton-vacancy mechanism, with diffusion along the [0 0 1] axis faster than along the [1 0 0]. However, the anisotropy at 3 GPa is weaker compared to measurements at lower pressures and the analysis of concentration profiles using 3D models shows that an isotropic solution could also be relevant. Fits of the diffusion data to an Arrhenius law yield activation energies for the slightly faster [0 0 1] axis of the crystallographic axes around 198 ± 5 kJ mol−1, a value only slightly lower than the results from previous experimental studies for natural iron-bearing olivine hydrogenated at lower confining pressure. At 3 GPa, hydrogenation can be well approximated by a single mechanism controlled by coupled diffusion of protons and octahedral vacancies (di- and tri-valent ions). The diffusion rates are fast enough to alter hydrogen concentration within olivine in xenoliths ascending from the mantle or experiencing hydrogen-rich metasomatism events, but too slow to permit complete homogenization of hydrogen in olivine-rich rocks at kilometer scale in less than one My.
ISSN: 0031-9201

hal-01412663
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01412663
DOI : 10.1016/j.pepi.2016.08.005

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Inter Research
Résumé : International audience
The main objective of the VULSACO (VULnerability of SAndy COasts to climate change and anthropic pressure) project was to investigate present day and potential future vulnerability of sandy coasts at the 2030 horizon, i.e. on a time scale related to climate variability. The method, based on a multidisciplinary approach bringing together geologists, geographers, physicists, social psychologists, engineers and stakeholders, was structured around 4 axes: field data analysis; numerical modelling; analysis of governance and stakeholder perceptions; and development of vulnerability indexes. This approach was designed to investigate vulnerability at a local scale and was applied to 4 contrasting beaches located in France: Sète Lido (Mediterranean Sea), Truc Vert and La Tresson beaches (Atlantic Ocean), and Dewulf (English Channel). The results focus on decadal and multi-annual beach trends at the Truc Vert beach site. There is almost no trend in beach volume at Truc Vert beach, although there is a variation in this parameter on a cycle of 2 to 3 yr, with variations related to wave energy and probably to indexes of climate variability. Numerical modelling identified the sensitivity of beach responses to changes in wave height and direction, especially in terms of subtidal morphology and the potential development of shoreline instability. Together with the observed offshore wave angle at the Biscay Buoy, these model results suggest that a potential change in wave angle due to climate variability could significantly modify the bars' morphology. The combination of data analysis and numerical modelling contributed to the development of vulnerability indexes designed for sandy coasts, which take into account climate-dependant variables such as waves. This allowed the differentiation of the sites in terms of vulnerability to erosion: Sète Lido and Truc Vert beach were the most and least vulnerable sites, respectively. These indexes help in identifying the dominant components of beach vulnerability, and provide potential for the study of how anthropogenic factors affect vulnerability. The study of stakeholder perceptions and decision-making with regard to climate-related risk also highlighted potential anthropogenic effects on beach vulnerability, and identified possible site-specific outcomes.
ISSN: 0936-577X

hal-00843946
https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00843946
DOI : 10.3354/cr01153

Éditeur(s) : Elsevier Sci Ltd
Résumé : A multi-scale global hindcast of ocean waves is presented that covers the years 1994-2012, based on recently published parameterizations for wind sea and swell dissipation [Ardhuin, F., Rogers, E., Babanin, A., Filipot, J.-F., Magne, R., Roland, A., van der Westhuysen, A., Queffeulou, P., Lefevre, J.-M., Aouf, L., Collard, F., 2010. Semi-empirical dissipation source functions for wind-wave models: Part I. Definition, calibration and validation. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 40 (9), 1917-1941]. Results from this hindcast include traditional wave parameters, like the significant wave height and mean periods, and we particularly consider the accuracy of the results for phenomenal sea states, with significant heights above 14 m. Using unbiased winds, there is no evidence of a bias in wave heights even for this very high range. Various spectral moments were also validated, including the surface Stokes drift and mean square slopes that are relevant for wave-current interactions modelling and remote sensing, and also spectra of seismic noise sources. The estimation of these parameters is made more accurate by the new wave growth and dissipation parameterizations. Associated air-sea fluxes of momentum and energy are significantly different from what is obtained with the WAM-Cycle 4 parameterization, with a roughness that is practically a function of wind speed only. That particular output of the model does not appear very realistic and will require future adjustments of the generation and dissipation parameterizations.
Ocean Modelling (1463-5003) (Elsevier Sci Ltd), 2013-10 , Vol. 70 , P. 174-188

Droits : 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00155/26582/25477.pdf
DOI:10.1016/j.ocemod.2012.12.001
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00155/26582/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Springer International Publishing AG.
Résumé : International audience
Underwater Seascapes. From geographical to ecological perspectives

hal-01429034
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01429034
DOI : 10.1007/978-3-319-03440-9_16

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
Two in situ concrete/claystone interfaces were sampled at the laboratory level in the Andra Meuse/Haute Marne (France) Underground Research Laboratory (URL) in order to study five years of interactions between Callovian-Oxfordian (COx) claystone and two cementitious materials (concrete bottom slab and shotcrete on the walls of the main gallery), with a specific focus on sulfur. Combined mineralogical, chemical and sulfur isotopic investigations were carried out to define the degree of the perturbation of the sulfur system in the claystone and in both the cementitious materials. At both interfaces, results show that the main perturbation on the claystone side is the formation of scarce μm-sized gypsum, the sulfur content of which is essentially derived from pyrite oxidation. The distribution of gypsum is highly correlated with the fissure network of the damaged zone due to excavation of the gallery. Its presence is also often associated with a loss of cohesion of the concrete/claystone interface. Due to the small amounts of gypsum and its μm-size, measurements were performed by ion microprobe. Adaptations were needed on account of the reactivity of gypsum and sulfates in general under the beam. The use of ion microprobe analysis provided evidence of high local isotopic heterogeneity that could be attributed to kinetic fractionation effects. Some analyses suggest a minor contribution of dissolved sulfates in pore water of claystone and possibly of concrete. The perturbation on the concrete side is marked by a significant increase in the bulk sulfur content within three millimeters of the interface with the claystone, showing a sulfur gradient from claystone to concrete. The main objective of this work was to define the extent of the chemical and mineralogical perturbations, taking into account in situ URL conditions, i.e. hydrodynamic conditions (shotcrete sprayed on the gallery walls and subjected to ventilation of the galleries), damaged zone of claystone induced by excavation and multi-scale heterogeneity. This identifies the relevant parameters to better constrain predictive reactive transport models of concrete/claystone interactions at a realistic scale.
ISSN: 0079-1946

hal-01055790
https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01055790
DOI : 10.1016/j.pce.2014.01.003

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Institute for Scientific Computing and Information
Résumé : International audience
In this paper, we solve a problem describing the mechanical deformations of a porous medium in the presence of a monophasic linear flow or a two phase nonlinear flow with the purpose of modelizing subsidence of hydrocarbon reservoirs. An essential characteristics of this problem is that the mechanical deformation and the flow have different time scales. In petroleum industry, one uses different very efficient simulators for the flow problem and the mechanical deformations, which enables to handle complex models. Therefore it is necessary to be able to combine as efficiently as possible the exploitation of these simulators. We propose two alternative splitting approaches. The first one is the staggered algorithm used by engineers, which amounts to a Gauss-Seidel method in the one phase linear case. The second approach is based upon the preconditioned conjugate gradient method. We use a numerical multi-scale method in both of these algorithms. We compare these two approaches and we show that the preconditioned conjugate gradient algorithm is faster and more robust than the staggered algorithm. Applying the preconditioned conjugate gradient algorithm therefore seems to compensate for the fact that the inf-sup condition for the mixed discretization method is not satisfied when combining the simulators for the mechanical deformations and for the flow computations.
ISSN: 1705-5105

Droits : http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
hal-01449039
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01449039
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01449039/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01449039/file/DHLE.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Geological Society of America
Résumé : International audience
In this study, a novel application of a statistical approach is utilized for analysis of downhole logging data from Miocene-aged siliciclastic shelf sediments on the New Jersey Margin (eastern USA). A multivariate iterative nonhierarchical cluster analysis (INCA) of spectral gamma-ray logs from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 313 enables lithology within this siliciclastic succession to be inferred and, through comparison with the 1311 m of recovered core, a continuous assessment of depositional sequences is constructed. Signifi cant changes in INCA clusters corroborate most key stratigraphic surfaces interpreted from the core, and this result has particular value for surface recognition in intervals of poor core recovery. This analysis contributes to the evaluation of sequence stratigraphic models of large-scale clinoform complexes that predict depositional environments, sediment composition, and stratal geometries in response to sea-level changes. The novel approach of combining statistical analysis with detailed lithostratigraphic and seismic refl ection data sets will be of interest to any scientists working with downhole logs, especially spectral gamma-ray data, and also provides a reference for the strengths and weaknesses of multi component analysis applied to continental margin lithofacies. The method presented here is appropriate for evaluating successions elsewhere and also has value for hydrocarbon exploration where sequence stratigraphy is a fundamental tool.
EISSN: 1553-040X

insu-00858238
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00858238
DOI : 10.1130/GES00913.1