Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD BioMed Central
Résumé : International audience
ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Climate change poses unprecedented challenges, ranging from global and local policy challenges to personal and social action. Heat-related deaths are largely preventable, but interventions for the most vulnerable populations need improvement. Therefore, the prior identification of high risk areas at the community level is required to better inform planning and prevention. We aimed to demonstrate a simple and flexible conceptual framework relying upon satellite thermal data and other digital data with the goal of easily reproducing this framework in a variety of urban configurations. RESULTS: The study area encompasses Rennes, a medium-sized French city. A Landsat ETM + image (60 m resolution) acquired during a localized heatwave (June 2001) was used to estimate land surface temperature (LST) and derive a hazard index. A land-use regression model was performed to predict the LST. Vulnerability was assessed through census data describing four dimensions (socio-economic status, extreme age, population density and building obsolescence). Then, hazard and vulnerability indices were combined to deliver a heatwave health risk index. The LST patterns were quite heterogeneous, reflecting the land cover mosaic inside the city boundary, with hotspots of elevated temperature mainly observed in the city center. A spatial error regression model was highly predictive of the spatial variation in the LST (R2 = 0.87) and was parsimonious. Three land cover descriptors (NDVI, vegetation and water fractions) were negatively linked with the LST. A sensitivity analysis (based on an image acquired on July 2000) yielded similar results. Southern areas exhibited the most vulnerability, although some pockets of higher vulnerability were observed northeast and west of the city. The heatwave health risk map showed evidence of infra-city spatial clustering, with the highest risks observed in a north--south central band. Another sensitivity analysis gave a very high correlation between 2000 and 2001 risk indices (r = 0.98, p < 10-12). CONCLUSIONS: Building on previous work, we developed a reproducible method that can provide guidance for local planners in developing more efficient climate impact adaptations. We recommend, however, using the health risk index together with hazard and vulnerability indices to implement tailored programs because exposure to heat and vulnerability do not require the same prevention strategies.
ISSN: 1476-072X

inserm-00762303
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00762303
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00762303/document
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00762303/file/1476-072X-11-38.pdf
DOI : 10.1186/1476-072X-11-38

Éditeur(s) : Université des Antilles Études caribéennes
Résumé : Le changement climatique et le développement durable du tourisme représentent des enjeux majeurs pour l’avenir du tourisme dans plusieurs régions du monde, notamment aux Antilles françaises. Aussi, la présente étude se propose d’analyser et d’évaluer les effets économiques de la variation climatique sur le secteur touristique à la Guadeloupe et à la Martinique, pour quatre raisons essentielles : (a) le secteur du tourisme et les petites économies insulaires qui en dépendent, comme celles de la Guadeloupe et de la Martinique, sont fortement sensibles à la variabilité et au changement du climat. (b) la vulnérabilité intrinsèque de ces petites destinations et de leurs infrastructures à l’élévation du niveau de la mer et aux évènements climatiques extrêmes (cyclones, inondations, sécheresse), (c) la haute dépendance de l’industrie touristique régionale à l’utilisation des énergies fossiles, (d) enfin, en raison du fait qu’aucune évaluation économique chiffrée n’a été produite à ce jour sur les effets économiques de la la variation climatique sur le secteur touristique à la Guadeloupe et à la Martinique. Par conséquent, il importe de cerner dans ces deux régions les conséquences possibles de ce changement au plan touristique et d’envisager le cas échéant des stratégies d’adaptation et d’atténuation. Ce faisant, cette étude se fixe quatre objectifs principaux : (a) examiner les facteurs qui influencent la demande et l’offre de tourisme aux Antilles Françaises ; (b) effectuer à l’aide d’un modèle de demande touristique, l’impact économique de ces facteurs sur le nombre d’arrivées ainsi que sur la dépense touristique dans ces régions ; (c) évaluer et projeter en termes de coût, les effets du changement climatique sur l’activité touristique ; et (d) proposer aux autorités locales, des stratégies d’adaptation et d’atténuation face au défi du changement climatique.L’évaluation de ces différents effets est abordée ici à l’aide d’un modèle structurel de base (MSB) et d’un modèle structurel général (MSG), inspirés tous deux des travaux de Harvey (1990) pour capter à l’aide d’un indice climato-touristique, les éléments du climat qui impactent l’activité touristique. Cet indice synthétique est calculé en se basant sur les données climatiques du passé selon deux scénarios climatiques proposés par le groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climat (GIEC) – un scénario pessimiste A2, et un scénario optimiste B2-. Les résultats issus de l’application de ces modèles montrent que les caractéristiques climato-touristiques de la Guadeloupe et de la Martinique subiront vraisemblablement un déclin à long terme, et devraient au plan économique impacter négativement le secteur touristique de ces destinations, se traduisant par des pertes à la fois d’attractivité et de chiffre d’affaires du secteur. Les pertes subies par le tourisme en raison du changement climatique s’élèveraient à l’horizon 2100, et selon le scénario A2, à 45 millions d’euros à la Guadeloupe soit 0,7% de son PIB 2004, et à 60 millions d’euros à la Martinique soit 0,8% de son PIB 2004.
Climate change and the tourism sustainable development are important challenges for tourism future trends of many countries, including the French West Indies. Therefore, this study provides an evaluation of the likely economic effects of climate change on tourism sector in Guadeloupe and Martinique, and identifies four reasons why these countries should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) Guadeloupe and Martinique are island destinations very sensitive to climate change; (b) their intrinsic vulnerability and their infrastructure to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); (c) the high dependence of their tourist industry on carbon-based fuels; and (d) up to date, no economic evaluation of climate change on tourism sector in Guadeloupe and Martinique is provided. Therefore, this study attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors on the economy of the French West Indies. There are four main objectives in this study. The first is to examine the factors that influence the demand and supply tourism in Guadeloupe and Martinique. The second is to forecast the impact of climate change to tourism arrivals until 2050 under two scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) – A2: pessimistic scenario and B2: optimistic scenario-. Third is to evaluate and forecast the cost of climate change to the tourism sector until 2100. The fourth is to recommend to authorities the adaptation and mitigation strategies that can be undertaken by the tourism sector to French West Indies to address climate change.Following Harvey (1990), a Basic Structural Model (BSM) and a General structural Model (GSM), are employed to model tourist arrivals to Martinique. A tourism climatic index (TCI) conceptualized by Mieczkowski (1985) is used in this model to capture the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience. The results suggest that under both scenarios, the island’s key tourism climatic features will probably decline, and therefore, negatively impact on the destination experience of visitors. Tourism losses due to climate change are projected in 2100 to 45 millions euros in Guadeloupe, or 0.7% of its GDP, and to 60 millions euros in Martinique, or 0,8% of its GDP.
Guadeloupe
Martinique

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
urn:doi:10.4000/etudescaribeennes.6750
http://journals.openedition.org/etudescaribeennes/6750

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
As climate change continues to impact socio-ecological systems, tools that assist conservation managers to understand vulnerability and target adaptations are essential. Quantitative assessments of vulnerability are rare because available frameworks are complex and lack guidance for dealing with data limitations and integrating across scales and disciplines. This paper describes a semi-quantitative method for assessing vulnerability to climate change that integrates socio-ecological factors to address management objectives and support decision-making. The method applies a framework first adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and uses a structured 10-step process. The scores for each framework element are normalized and multiplied to produce a vulnerability score and then the assessed components are ranked from high to low vulnerability. Sensitivity analyses determine which indicators most influence the analysis and the resultant decision-making process so data quality for these indicators can be reviewed to increase robustness. Prioritisation of components for conservation considers other economic, social and cultural values with vulnerability rankings to target actions that reduce vulnerability to climate change by decreasing exposure or sensitivity and/or increasing adaptive capacity. This framework provides practical decision-support and has been applied to marine ecosystems and fisheries, with two case applications provided as examples: (1) food security in Pacific Island nations under climate-driven fish declines, and (2) fisheries in the Gulf of Carpentaria, northern Australia. The step-wise process outlined here is broadly applicable and can be undertaken with minimal resources using existing data, thereby having great potential to inform adaptive natural resource management in diverse locations.
ISSN: 0308-597X

hal-01380403
https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01380403
DOI : 10.1016/j.marpol.2016.09.024

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD MDPI
Résumé : International audience
The future of tropical managed forests is threatened by climate change. In anticipation of the increase in the frequency of drought episodes predicted by climatic models for intertropical regions, it is essential to study commercial trees' resilience and vulnerability to water stress by identifying potential interaction effects between selective logging and stress due to a lack of water. Focusing on 14 species representing a potential or acknowledged commercial interest for wood production in the Guiana Shield, a joint model coupling growth and mortality for each species was parametrized, including a climatic variable related to water stress and the quantity of aboveground biomass lost after logging. For the vast majority of the species, water stress had a negative impact on growth rate, while the impact of logging was positive. The opposite results were observed for the mortality. Combining results from growth and mortality models, we generate vulnerability profiles and ranking from species apparently quite resistant to water stress (Chrysophyllum spp., Goupia glabra Aubl., Qualea rosea Aubl.), even under logging pressure, to highly vulnerable species (Sterculia spp.). In light of our results, forest managers in the Guiana Shield may want to conduct (i) a conservation strategy of the most vulnerable species and (ii) a diversification of the logged species. Conservation of the already-adapted species may also be considered as the most certain way to protect the tropical forests under future climates.
ISSN: 1999-4907

hal-01315432
https://hal-sde.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01315432
DOI : 10.3390/f7050105

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Inter Research
Résumé : International audience
The main objective of the VULSACO (VULnerability of SAndy COasts to climate change and anthropic pressure) project was to investigate present day and potential future vulnerability of sandy coasts at the 2030 horizon, i.e. on a time scale related to climate variability. The method, based on a multidisciplinary approach bringing together geologists, geographers, physicists, social psychologists, engineers and stakeholders, was structured around 4 axes: field data analysis; numerical modelling; analysis of governance and stakeholder perceptions; and development of vulnerability indexes. This approach was designed to investigate vulnerability at a local scale and was applied to 4 contrasting beaches located in France: Sète Lido (Mediterranean Sea), Truc Vert and La Tresson beaches (Atlantic Ocean), and Dewulf (English Channel). The results focus on decadal and multi-annual beach trends at the Truc Vert beach site. There is almost no trend in beach volume at Truc Vert beach, although there is a variation in this parameter on a cycle of 2 to 3 yr, with variations related to wave energy and probably to indexes of climate variability. Numerical modelling identified the sensitivity of beach responses to changes in wave height and direction, especially in terms of subtidal morphology and the potential development of shoreline instability. Together with the observed offshore wave angle at the Biscay Buoy, these model results suggest that a potential change in wave angle due to climate variability could significantly modify the bars' morphology. The combination of data analysis and numerical modelling contributed to the development of vulnerability indexes designed for sandy coasts, which take into account climate-dependant variables such as waves. This allowed the differentiation of the sites in terms of vulnerability to erosion: Sète Lido and Truc Vert beach were the most and least vulnerable sites, respectively. These indexes help in identifying the dominant components of beach vulnerability, and provide potential for the study of how anthropogenic factors affect vulnerability. The study of stakeholder perceptions and decision-making with regard to climate-related risk also highlighted potential anthropogenic effects on beach vulnerability, and identified possible site-specific outcomes.
ISSN: 0936-577X

hal-00843946
https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00843946
DOI : 10.3354/cr01153

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : Climate change is one of the biggest public health threats in the 21th century. An increase in temperatures will lead to an increase in mortality attributable to temperature. In addition, some populations and territories are particularly vulnerable to the impact of increases in heat. It is thus necessary to identify these populations and territories as well as examine future heat-Related health impacts in order to recommend equity-Oriented policies today and in the future. The general objective of this thesis is to document current and future heat-Related vulnerability factors in the context of climate change. In order to address this general objective, the thesis involved four components: a) to conduct a systematic review and a meta-Analysis to assess the heterogeneity in the heat-Mortality associations with respect to individual and contextual population characteristics; b) to identify whether and how the magnitude of mean temperature effects on all-Cause mortality were modified by chronic air pollution exposure, social deprivation, and a combination of these two dimensions; c) to develop a method to quantify the climate change impacts on heat-Related mortality using climate modeling; d) to assess historical and future social disparities in years of life lost caused by ambient temperature in Montreal and Paris, and compare these estimates as well as the impact of climate change on social disparities between the two cities. This thesis highlights which populations are more vulnerable to heat and shows that several differences exist with regard to guidelines from international public health institutions for the identification of vulnerable populations. This thesis also identified chronic air pollution exposure as a new vulnerability factor in heat-Related mortality and that it has a double interaction with social deprivation. Furthermore, in this thesis a novel method to quantify future heat-Related mortality was developed which emphasized the strong evidence of an increase in heat-Related mortality under climate change. This method was then applied to estimate the increase in daily years of life lost social disparities in both Montreal and Paris under climate change which showed that this increase would be greater in Montreal compared to Paris in the future. Thus, this thesis which used a variety of epidemiologic methods has clarified which populations are particularly vulnerable to heat impacts and challenges guidelines for the identification of vulnerable populations from international public health institutions. It has also highlighted the climate change impacts on health inequalities and aims to reorient equity-Focused policies.
Les changements climatiques constituent l’un des enjeux les plus importants en santé publique du XXIème siècle. En effet, une hausse des températures provoquera une hausse de la mortalité attribuable à la chaleur. En outre, certaines populations et territoires sont particulièrement vulnérables aux effets de la chaleur. Il est donc nécessaire de les identifier clairement ainsi que les impacts futurs pour orienter avec équité les politiques publiques aujourd’hui et à l’avenir. L’objectif de cette thèse est de documenter les facteurs de vulnérabilité à la chaleur dans le présent et les éléments permettant leur prise en compte pour l’avenir dans le contexte des changements climatiques. Quatre étapes ont été menées pour répondre à cet objectif : a) Mener une revue systématique et une méta-Analyse des facteurs de vulnérabilité face aux risques de mortalité en lien avec la chaleur ; b) Analyser si l’exposition chronique à la pollution atmosphérique modifie la relation entre la chaleur et la mortalité dans un contexte urbain (Paris) et explorer la double interaction avec la défaveur sociale ; c) Développer une méthode de quantification des impacts liés à la chaleur en lien avec les changements climatiques en intégrant une grande diversité de simulations climatiques ; d) Estimer les inégalités d’années de vies perdues attribuables à la chaleur et leurs projections futures dans deux contextes distincts (Montréal et Paris) et comparer ces inégalités. Cette thèse a permis de mettre en évidence sur la base de la littérature épidémiologique les groupes de population qui sont les plus vulnérables face aux effets de la chaleur et de montrer qu’il y a plusieurs divergences par rapport aux recommandations émises par les institutions de santé publique vis-À-Vis de l’identification de populations vulnérables. Cette thèse a permis également d’identifier l’exposition chronique à la pollution atmosphérique comme nouveau facteur de vulnérabilité à la chaleur et que cette vulnérabilité était encore plus prononcée lorsqu’il s’agissait de populations défavorisées socialement. Puis, une méthode permettant de quantifier l’impact des changements climatiques sur les décès attribuables à la chaleur et ses sources d’incertitudes a été développée, et a permis de mettre en évidence que la probabilité que les changements climatiques conduisent à une augmentation de la mortalité en lien avec la chaleur est très forte. Cette méthode a ensuite été utilisée pour estimer que l’augmentation de la température conduira à une augmentation des inégalités sociales d’années de vie perdues à la fois à Montréal et à Paris, l’effet des changements climatiques sur l’accroissement de ces inégalités étant plus fort à Montréal qu’à Paris. Cette thèse, en se basant sur diverses méthodes épidémiologiques, a permis dans l’ensemble de clarifier quelles populations étaient particulièrement à risque face aux effets de la chaleur et de questionner les recommandations émises par les organismes tels que l’OMS. Elle a également permis de montrer l’effet des changements climatiques sur l’évolution de vulnérabilités face à la chaleur pour inciter dès aujourd’hui la mise en place de politiques publiques équitables et limiter l’impact des changements climatiques sur l’accroissement des inégalités de santé.
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01456772

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
NNT : 2015PA11T003
tel-01456772
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01456772
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01456772/document
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01456772/file/VA_BENMARHNIA_TARIK_05022015.pdf

Éditeur(s) : Université des Antilles Études caribéennes
Résumé : Comme dans d’autres régions du monde, la croissance démographique et l’accentuation des activités côtières au Canada entraînent une dégradation continue des écosystèmes et de la biodiversité. L’aménagement côtier contribue essentiellement à la vulnérabilité et à la détérioration des littoraux. Ce constat concerne le littoral acadien du Nouveau-Brunswick. Au-delà de ces pressions démographiques et de l’urbanisation sur les zones littorales, l'élévation du niveau marin et l'augmentation des températures (effets du changement et des variations climatiques) provoquent des impacts vérifiables : l’intensité des ondes de tempêtes, la dégradation des sols par l’érosion, etc. Ainsi, l’adaptation au changement climatique constitue un enjeu de taille pour la province du Nouveau-Brunswick. C’est pourquoi cet article propose d’étudier les impacts de ces changements auprès de deux régions côtières du littoral acadien et d’apprendre des expériences de chacun pour renforcer leur résilience. La recherche souhaite s’inscrire dans une nouvelle forme d’engagement communautaire qui prend en compte des aspects de la « gouvernance », de l’« aménagement du territoire » et de la « cohésion sociale ». L’article tente d’avoir une meilleure compréhension de l’enchâssement des aspects économiques et sociétaux dans les enjeux environnementaux.
As in other parts of the world, demographic growth and an increased use of coastal zones in Canada lead to a degradation of coastal ecosystems and a loss of biodiversity. Coastal development contributes in large part to the vulnerability and deterioration of coastal zones. This is very clearly seen in the case of the Acadian coast of New Brunswick. In addition to stresses from demographic growth and urbanization, the coastal zone is affected by sea level rise, temperature increases and other impacts of climate change such as increased climate variability, which lead to measurable effects such as an increase in storm intensity or increased coastal erosion. Thus, adaptation to climate change constitutes a major challenge for the province of New Brunswick. It is in this context that we propose to analyze the impacts of climate change in two sites on the Acadian coast and to profit from both experiences in order to increase the resilience of the communities through mutual learning. The research undertaken here aims at contributing to a new form of community engagement that takes “governance”, “land use planning” and “social cohesion” into account. The article aims at a better understanding of the interplay of social and economic aspects in this environmental problem.
Canada
Nouveau-Brunswick

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
urn:doi:10.4000/etudescaribeennes.6970
http://journals.openedition.org/etudescaribeennes/6970

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD American Association for the Advancement of Science
Résumé :  
Amazon forests are a key but poorly understood component of the global carbon cycle. If, as anticipated, they dry this century, they might accelerate climate change through carbon losses and changed surface energy balances. We used records from multiple long-term monitoring plots across Amazonia to assess forest responses to the intense 2005 drought, a possible analog of future events. Affected forest lost biomass, reversing a large long-term carbon sink, with the greatest impacts observed where the dry season was unusually intense. Relative to pre-2005 conditions, forest subjected to a 100-millimeter increase in water deficit lost 5.3 megagrams of aboveground biomass of carbon per hectare. The drought had a total biomass carbon impact of 1.2 to 1.6 petagrams (1.2 × 1015 to 1.6 × 1015 grams). Amazon forests therefore appear vulnerable to increasing moisture stress, with the potential for large carbon losses to exert feedback on climate change.
ISSN: 0036-8075

hal-01032111
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01032111
DOI : 10.1126/science.1164033

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD MDPI
Résumé : International audience
Objectives: We propose a novel approach to examine vulnerability in the relationship between heat and years of life lost and apply to neighborhood social disparities in Montreal and Paris. Methods: We used historical data from the summers of 1990 through 2007 for Montreal and from 2004 through 2009 for Paris to estimate daily years of life lost social disparities (DYLLD), summarizing social inequalities across groups. We used Generalized Linear Models to separately estimate relative risks (RR) for DYLLD in association with daily mean temperatures in both cities. We used 30 climate scenarios of daily mean temperature to estimate future temperature distributions (2021-2050). We performed random effect meta-analyses to assess the impact of climate change by climate scenario for each city and compared the impact of climate change for the two cities using a meta-regression analysis. Results: We show that an increase in ambient temperature leads to an increase in social disparities in daily years of life lost. The impact of climate change on DYLLD attributable to temperature was of 2.06 (95% CI: 1.90, 2.25) in Montreal and 1.77 (95% CI: 1.61, 1.94) in Paris. The city explained a difference of 0.31 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.49) on the impact of climate change. Conclusion: We propose a new analytical approach for estimating vulnerability in the relationship between heat and health. Our results suggest that in Paris and Montreal, health disparities related to heat impacts exist today and will increase in the future
ISSN: 1660-4601

hal-01207279
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01207279
DOI : 10.3390/ijerph120911869
PUBMED : 26402690

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Lippincott, Williams & Wilkins
Résumé : International audience
BACKGROUND: Addressing vulnerability to heat-related mortality is a necessary step in the development of policies dictated by heat action plans. We aimed to provide a systematic assessment of the epidemiologic evidence regarding vulnerability to heat-related mortality. METHODS: Studies assessing the association between high ambient temperature or heat waves and mortality among different subgroups and published between January 1980 and August 2014 were selected. Estimates of association for all the included subgroups were extracted. We assessed the presence of heterogeneous effects between subgroups conducting Cochran Q tests. We conducted random effect meta-analyses of ratios of relative risks (RRR) for high ambient temperature studies. We performed random effects meta-regression analyses to investigate factors associated with the magnitude of the RRR. RESULTS: Sixty-one studies were included. Using the Cochran Q test, we consistently found evidence of vulnerability for the elderly ages extgreater85 years. We found a pooled RRR of 0.99 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.97, 1.01) for male sex, 1.02 (95% CI = 1.01, 1.03) for age extgreater65 years, 1.04 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.07) for age extgreater75 years, 1.03 (95% CI = 1.01, 1.05) for low individual socioeconomic status (SES), and 1.01 (95% CI = 0.99, 1.02) for low ecologic SES. CONCLUSIONS: We found strongest evidence of heat-related vulnerability for the elderly ages extgreater65 and extgreater75 years and low SES groups (at the individual level). Studies are needed to clarify if other subgroups (e.g., children, people living alone) are also vulnerable to heat to inform public health programs
ISSN: 1044-3983

hal-01197347
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01197347
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01197347/document
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01197347/file/Vulnerability%20to%20Heat-related%20Mortality%20A%20Systematic%20Review%2C%20Meta-analysis%2C%20and%20Meta-regression%20Analysis..pdf
DOI : 10.1097/EDE.0000000000000375

Éditeur(s) : Université des Antilles Études caribéennes
Résumé : This study explores weather perceptions, evaluations and behavior of holiday-tourists to the French Caribbean island of La Martinique. Herein, the importance of selected weather parameters for a ‘typical’ summer holiday, for the choice that was made in coming to Martinique and for planned activities is examined. 32 snapshot interviews were held in two brief time periods within a month. Results illustrated slight differences in climate preferences for respondents depending whether they come from a cold or from a warm climate country, that activity patterns seemed overall little influenced by changing weather conditions and that the experienced weather, which was marked by heavy rains in the first data collection period and by changeable weather in the second, appeared to take only a limited impact on return intentions. Albeit the limited possibility of a pilot study to produce valid and reliable findings, variables and factors which are critical to consider when examining weather perceptions and behaviors have been pointed out and presented in a conceptual model for further research.
Cette étude explore les perceptions et les évaluations des conditions météorologiques et les comportements des vacanciers sur l'île de la Martinique. A ce sujet, l´étude examine l'influence de certains paramètres météorologiques sélectionnés sur des vacances d'été «typiques», sur le choix de la destination Martinique et sur les activités envisagées sur lieu. 32 interviews instantanées ont eu lieu en deux courtes périodes de temps pendant un mois. Les résultats illustraient qu´il y avait de légères différences concernant les préférences climatiques selon que les répondants venaient d'un pays au climat froid ou chaud, que les schémas d'activité semblaient généralement peu influencés par les changements météorologiques et que le temps - marquées par de fortes pluies dans la première période de la collecte de données et par un temps variable dans la seconde période - semblait n´avoir qu´un impact limité sur les intentions à revenir à la Martinique. Bien que l´étude pilote n´ait que des possibilités limitées de fournir des résultats valides et fiables, elle identifie les variables et les facteurs qui sont essentiels à considérer lors d´un projet de recherche qui examine la perception des conditions météorologiques par les touristes et les comportements qui en résultent. Ces facteurs sont présentés dans un modèle conceptuel.
Martinique

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
urn:doi:10.4000/etudescaribeennes.5323
http://journals.openedition.org/etudescaribeennes/5323

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : International audience
Exposure to disturbance is rarely considered in marine protected area planning. Typically, representing and replicating the habitat types present within protected areas is used to spread the risk of protecting frequently disturbed sites. This was the approach used during the 2004 re-zoning of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP) via the Representative Areas Program. Over 10 years later, we examine whether the risk was spread by mapping exposure of coral reefs in the GBRMP to four disturbances that cause coral mortality: bleaching, tropical cyclones, crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks, and freshwater inundation. Our objectives were to: (1) assess whether no-take areas include a range of disturbance regimes, and (2) identify coral reef areas with lower relative exposure. At least 13% and an average of 31% of reef locations in each of 11 exposure classes are included within no-take areas. A greater proportion of low-exposure areas are within no-take areas than high-exposure areas (34.2% vs. 28.3%). The results demonstrate the value of risk spreading when exposure data are not available while also showing that regularly assessing exposure increases capacity for adaptive, resilience-based reef management.
ISSN: 1755-263X

Droits : http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
hal-01225201
https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01225201
https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01225201/document
https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01225201/file/Maynard_et_al-2015-Conservation_Letters.pdf
DOI : 10.1111/conl.12198

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD MDPI
Résumé : International audience
Satellite precipitation products are a means of estimating rainfall, particularly in areas that are sparsely equipped with rain gauges. The Guiana Shield is a region vulnerable to high water episodes. Flood risk is enhanced by the concentration of population living along the main rivers. A good understanding of the regional hydro-climatic regime, as well as an accurate estimation of precipitation is therefore of great importance. Unfortunately, there are very few rain gauges available in the region. The objective of the study is then to compare satellite rainfall estimation products in order to complement the information available in situ and to perform a regional analysis of four operational precipitation estimates, by partitioning the whole area under study into a homogeneous hydro-climatic region. In this study, four satellite products have been tested, TRMM TMPA (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis) V7 (Version 7) and RT (real time), CMORPH (Climate Prediction Center (CPC) MORPHing technique) and PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely-Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Network), for daily rain gauge data. Product performance is evaluated at daily and monthly scales based on various intensities and hydro-climatic regimes from 1 January 2001 to 30 December 2012 and using quantitative statistical criteria (coefficient correlation, bias, relative bias and root mean square error) and quantitative error metrics (probability of detection for rainy days and for no-rain days and the false alarm ratio). Over the entire study period, all products underestimate precipitation. The results obtained in terms of the hydro-climate show that for areas with intense convective precipitation, TMPA V7 shows a better performance than other products, especially in the estimation of extreme precipitation events. In regions along the Amazon, the use of PERSIANN is better. Finally, in the driest areas, TMPA V7 and PERSIANN show the same performance.
ISSN: 2072-4292

Droits : http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/licences/copyright/
hal-01257912
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01257912
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01257912/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01257912/file/remotesensing-07-15831.pdf
DOI : 10.3390/rs71215831

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD BioMed Central
Résumé : International audience
BACKGROUND: Heat and air pollution are both associated with increases in mortality. However, the interactive effect of temperature and air pollution on mortality remains unsettled. Similarly, the relationship between air pollution, air temperature, and social deprivation has never been explored. METHODS: We used daily mortality data from 2004 to 2009, daily mean temperature variables and relative humidity, for Paris, France. Estimates of chronic exposure to air pollution and social deprivation at a small spatial scale were calculated and split into three strata. We developed a stratified Poisson regression models to assess daily temperature and mortality associations, and tested the heterogeneity of the regression coefficients of the different strata. Deaths due to ambient temperature were calculated from attributable fractions and mortality rates were estimated. RESULTS: We found that chronic air pollution exposure and social deprivation are effect modifiers of the association between daily temperature and mortality. We found a potential interactive effect between social deprivation and chronic exposure with regards to air pollution in the mortality-temperature relationship. CONCLUSION: Our results may have implications in considering chronically polluted areas as vulnerable in heat action plans and in the long-term measures to reduce the burden of heat stress especially in the context of climate change.
ISSN: 1476-069X

hal-01070538
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01070538
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01070538/document
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01070538/file/1476-069X-13-53.pdf
DOI : 10.1186/1476-069X-13-53

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
Understanding long-term variability in the frequency of intense storm activity is important for assessing whether changes are controlled by climate evolution. Understanding this variability is also important for predicting present and future community vulnerability and economic loss. Our ability to make these assessments has been limited by the short (less than 50 years) instrument record of storm activity. Storm-induced deposits preserved in the sediments of coastal lagoons offer the opportunity to study the links between climatic conditions and storm activity on longer timescales. In this study, we present a record of these extreme climatic events that have occurred in the French Mediterrannean coast over the past 1500 years. The identification of these extreme events is based on the analysis of sediment cores from Gulf of Aigues-Mortes lagoons that contain a specific sedimentary and geochemical signature associated with intense storms.;Overwash deposits do not show any evidence of intense storm landfalls in the region for several hundred years prior to the late 17th century A.D. The apparent increase in intense storms around 250 years ago occurs during the latter half of the Little Ice Age, a time of lower continental surface temperatures. Comparison of the sediment record with palaeoclimate records indicates that this variability was probably modulated by atmospheric dynamics. The apparent increase of the superstorm activity during the latter half of the Little Ice Age was probably due to the thermal gradient increase leading to enhanced lower tropospheric baroclinicity over a large Central Atlantic/European domain and leading to a modification of the occurrence of extreme wind events along the French Mediterranean coast. A complete understanding of the relationship between climate fluctuations, storm activity, and the coastal response will be crucial to predicting the impacts of future climate change.
ISSN: 0031-0182

hal-00617525
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00617525
DOI : 10.1016/j.palaeo.2010.11.009

Éditeur(s) : Université des Antilles Études caribéennes
Résumé : Comme dans d’autres régions du monde, la croissance démographique et l’aménagement côtier sur le littoral acadien au Nouveau-Brunswick contribuent à une plus grande vulnérabilité et à la détérioration des espaces côtiers et environnements littoraux. L’élévation du niveau marin et les effets des changements climatiques rendent les côtes du Nouveau-Brunswick extrêmement sensibles et entrainent des impacts de plus en plus importants. Ainsi, l’adaptation aux changements climatiques constitue un enjeu de taille pour la province.Nous décrivons ici les résultats d’une étude comparative sur les expériences et les stratégies d’adaptation de deux communautés côtières, les communautés de Cocagne - Grande Digue et de Beaubassin-Est - Cap Pelé. Les deux territoires ont en commun d’avoir des littoraux convoités par le tourisme et le secteur immobilier. Des entretiens semi-dirigés et des groupes de discussion (focus groups) ont permis d’obtenir des informations sur les thématiques suivantes : l’expérience des modifications environnementales, les mesures d’adaptation initiées individuellement ou collectivement, les réactions et les besoins futurs. Les résultats de l’étude mettent en évidence l’enchâssement des aspects économiques et sociétaux dans les enjeux environnementaux et le rôle des représentations et des acteurs qui déterminent le niveau de mobilisation. Enfin, le projet souligne l’importance d’une coordination entre les différentes échelles de gouvernance.
As in other parts of the world, population growth and coastal planning on New Brunswick’s Acadian coastline are contributing to greater vulnerability and deterioration of the natural environment. The rise in sea level and the effects of climate change make the coasts of New Brunswick extremely sensitive, leading to impacts that are increasingly larger. Thus, adaptation to climate change is a major challenge for the province.Here, we describe the results of a comparative study of the experiences and coping strategies of two coastal communities: Cocagne – Grande-Digue and Beaubassin East – Cap-Pelé. Both these territories attract tourism and real estate investors. Semi-structured interviews and focus groups were used to obtain information on the following topics: the experience of environmental change, adaptation measures initiated individually or collectively, reactions and future needs. Results of the study highlight the entrenchment of economic and societal aspects of environmental issues and the role of representations and stakeholders that determine the level of mobilization. Finally, the project emphasizes the importance of coordination between the different levels of governance.
Acadie
Nouveau-Brunswick

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
urn:doi:10.4000/etudescaribeennes.6663
http://journals.openedition.org/etudescaribeennes/6663

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD MDPI
Résumé : International audience
Satellite precipitation products are a means of estimating rainfall, particularly in areas that are sparsely equipped with rain gauges. The Guiana Shield is a region vulnerable to high water episodes. Flood risk is enhanced by the concentration of population living along the main rivers. A good understanding of the regional hydro-climatic regime, as well as an accurate estimation of precipitation is therefore of great importance. Unfortunately, there are very few rain gauges available in the region. The objective of the study is then to compare satellite rainfall estimation products in order to complement the information available in situ and to perform a regional analysis of four operational precipitation estimates, by partitioning the whole area under study into a homogeneous hydro-climatic region. In this study, four satellite products have been tested, TRMM TMPA (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis) V7 (Version 7) and RT (real time), CMORPH (Climate Prediction Center (CPC) MORPHing technique) and PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely-Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Network), for daily rain gauge data. Product performance is evaluated at daily and monthly scales based on various intensities and hydro-climatic regimes from 1 January 2001 to 30 December 2012 and using quantitative statistical criteria (coefficient correlation, bias, relative bias and root mean square error) and quantitative error metrics (probability of detection for rainy days and for no-rain days and the false alarm ratio). Over the entire study period, all products underestimate precipitation. The results obtained in terms of the hydro-climate show that for areas with intense convective precipitation, TMPA V7 shows a better performance than other products, especially in the estimation of extreme precipitation events. In regions along the Amazon, the use of PERSIANN is better. Finally, in the driest areas, TMPA V7 and PERSIANN show the same performance.
ISSN: 2072-4292

meteo-01304579
https://hal-meteofrance.archives-ouvertes.fr/meteo-01304579
https://hal-meteofrance.archives-ouvertes.fr/meteo-01304579/document
https://hal-meteofrance.archives-ouvertes.fr/meteo-01304579/file/remotesensing-07-15831.pdf
DOI : 10.3390/rs71215831

Éditeur(s) : Université des Antilles Études caribéennes
Résumé : La vulnérabilité croissante aux aléas extrêmes et les conséquences du changement climatique accentuent l’exposition des Antilles françaises aux risques naturels. Dans ce contexte, la Caisse Centrale de Réassurance par son rôle dans l’indemnisation des Catastrophes naturelles en France cherche à consolider ses connaissances sur les ouragans et les phénomènes induits comme les submersions, les inondations ou les glissements de terrain.À partir des archives antillaises et métropolitaines, une reconstruction de l’intensité des ouragans survenus depuis le début du xviie siècle a été possible. Elle permet ainsi d’évaluer l’exposition des territoires antillais. L’analyse des dommages a permis de proposer une évaluation des enjeux et ainsi saisir la construction de la vulnérabilité. Les réponses apportées en matière de gestion du risque depuis le xviie attestent de la volonté d’assurer la protection des enjeux et des populations et mettent en avant les relations entre risque et aménagement du territoire.
The rising vulnerability to Extreme hazard and the consequences of climate change increase the exposure of French Antilles to natural hazards. Therefore, the French reinsurance company Caisse Centrale de Réassurance aims to develop its scientific knowledge of hurricanes and induced phenomena like storm surges, floods and landslides.With the study of historical archives, located in the Antilles and Metropolitean France, it was possible to build an exhaustive hurricane Severity chronology since the 17th century. Then, a detailed damage analysis in specific strategic areas has offered the opportunity to assess the evolution of the vulnerability of the French Antilles societies. Furthermore, the Risk Management policies, since the 17th century, attest the willingness to protect strategic areas and populations and highlight the link between risk and land use.
Martinique
Guadeloupe
Saint-Martin
Saint-Barthélemy

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
urn:doi:10.4000/etudescaribeennes.7176
http://journals.openedition.org/etudescaribeennes/7176

Éditeur(s) : Université des Antilles Études caribéennes
Résumé : This paper addresses the challenge of transforming Mediterranean islands into sustainable tourism areas, through the direct (or indirect) use of renewable energy projects and technologies. Through demonstration and a discussion of cases studies from studied islands, which takes into account island-specific characteristics and particularities, we assess the compatibility of renewable energy technologies (RETs) with sustainable tourism development. Conclusions emerge from this analysis which highlight prerequisites for RET-tourism compatibility; this has potential transferability to other insular territories. Developing an appreciation of the factors that can lead to sustainable tourism in islands through the use of renewable energy is a priority issue for two main reasons. Firstly, because until now scientific literature has only discussed the question of photovoltaics’ integration into tourism buildings, and secondly, because of the relatively high vulnerability to climate change impacts of islands compared to many mainland areas, according to predictions made by the United Nations and the European Union. Whilst international politics deal with the mass reduction of gaseous emissions into the atmosphere, reducing the adverse effects of climate change in the islands has become a significant component of national priorities.

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
urn:doi:10.4000/etudescaribeennes.3487
http://journals.openedition.org/etudescaribeennes/3487

Éditeur(s) : Université des Antilles Études caribéennes
Résumé : Le bassin du fleuve Sixaola est un bassin transfrontalier partagé entre le Costa Rica et le Panama. Localisé sur la façade caraïbe de l’isthme centraméricain, il est depuis une vingtaine d’années considérées par les organismes de coopération et les organisations non gouvernementales comme un espace privilégié pour la coopération en matière environnementale. Ce bassin concentre en effet d’importantes richesses naturelles et culturelles propres à cette façade caraïbe. Dans le même temps, on y constate une importante vulnérabilité sociale et des dégradations environnementales croissantes, d’autant plus qu’on trouve autour de ce bassin des activités productives polluantes (monocultures, tourisme, etc.), ainsi que les villages les plus pauvres des deux pays.Cet article cherche à analyser comment, à côté des mécanismes d’intégration et des initiatives appuyées par les États, cet espace connaît aussi de nombreux projets et programmes de coopération menés par des organismes internationaux et des organisations non gouvernementales (ONG). Ces projets visent principalement à accroître la coopération transfrontalière pour la conservation et la gestion environnementale.En revanche, leur rôle est de plus en plus remis en cause par des acteurs locaux qui affirment que ces organismes « transnationaux » déplacent les États et imposent des projets qui ne prennent pas en compte les réalités et les besoins locaux tout en développant des discours « hégémoniques » sur la gestion intégrée des bassins transfrontaliers, le changement climatique, entre autres.
The Sixaola River basin is shared by Costa Rica and Panama. On the Caribbean side of the Central American Isthmus, it has been considered by cooperation organisms and non-governmental organizations as a privileged space for environmental cooperation for the past 20 years. This basin in fact concentrates an important amount of natural and cultural heritage that is endemic to this side of the Caribbean. At the same time, one can observe increasing social vulnerability and environmental degradation related to the presence of the poorest communities of both Panama and Costa Rica within the basin, and to polluting activities (monoculture, tourism, etc.) carried out around it.This article analyzes how this space is the locus of State integration mechanisms and other initiatives, at the same time that it harbors international organism and non-governmental cooperation programs. These latter projects claim to increase trans-border cooperation for conservation and environmental management.But their role is increasingly being contested by local stakeholders, who more and more claim that these “transnational” organisms displace States and impose projects that do not take into account local realities and needs, while developing “hegemonic” discourses on integrated management of trans-border basins and climate change, among other issues.
Amérique centrale
Costa Rica
Panama

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
urn:doi:10.4000/etudescaribeennes.5747
http://journals.openedition.org/etudescaribeennes/5747