Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : International audience
Within the framework of the international field campaign COPS (Convective and Orographically induced Precipitation Study), a large suite of state-of-the-art meteorological instrumentation was operated, partially combined for the first time. This includes networks of in situ and remote-sensing systems such as the Global Positioning System as well as a synergy of multi-wavelength passive and active remote-sensing instruments such as advanced radar and lidar systems. The COPS field phase was performed from 01 June to 31 August 2007 in a low-mountain area in southwestern Germany/eastern France covering the Vosges mountains, the Rhine valley and the Black Forest mountains. The collected dataset covers the entire evolution of convective precipitation events in complex terrain from their initiation, to their development and mature phase until their decay. Eighteen Intensive Observations Periods with 37 operation days and eight additional Special Observations Periods were performed, providing a comprehensive dataset covering different forcing conditions. In this article, an overview of the COPS scientific strategy, the field phase, and its first accomplishments is given. Highlights of the campaign are illustrated with several measurement examples. It is demonstrated that COPS research provides new insight into key processes leading to convection initiation and to the modification of precipitation by orography, in the improvement of quantitative precipitation forecasting by the assimilation of new observations, and in the performance of ensembles of convection-permitting models in complex terrain.
ISSN: 0035-9009

hal-00565513
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00565513
DOI : 10.1002/qj.752

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Météo et Climat
Résumé : International audience
D'initiative française, le projet international HyMeX a pour objectif d'améliorer la compréhension du cycle de l'eau en Méditerranée, de sa variabilité, de l'échelle de l'événement météorologique aux échelles saisonnières et interannuelles, et de ses caractéristiques sur une décennie, dans un contexte de changement global. Le projet est motivé par le rôle déterminant des processus de mésoéchelle, couplés entre l'atmosphère, la mer et la terre, sur la variabilité du système climatique et sur le déclenchement d'événements hydrométéorologiques extrêmes (précipitations et inondations, vents forts et convection océanique, canicules et sécheresses). Le projet vise enfin à évaluer les conséquences de ces événements extrêmes sur la vulnérabilité sociale et économique de cette région et sa capacité d'adaptation.
ISSN: 0026-1181

hal-00828758
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00828758
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00828758/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00828758/file/meteo_2013_80_23%20%281%29.pdf
DOI : 10.4267/2042/48792

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Météo et Climat
Résumé : International audience
The Convective and Orographically- induced Precipitation Study (COPS) is a coordinated international project, comprised of an observational field campaign and a research programme aiming to advance the quality of fore- casts of orographically-induced pre- cipitation by four-dimensional obser- vations and modelling of its life cycle. The COPS field campaign took place during June-July-August 2007 over eastern France and south-western Germany. Its main objective was to provide an unprecedented comprehen- sive set of in situ and remotely-sensed meteorological observations of the entire depth of the troposphere. After a short overview of the project, the paper focuses on the French contribution to the COPS field phase, describes the experimental setup and highlights some key observations.
L’étude des précipitations convectives induites par l’orographie (Cops selon l’acronyme anglais) est un projet inter- national coordonné qui comprend une campagne d’observations de terrain et un programme scientifique et qui vise à améliorer la qualité des prévisions des précipitations orographiques convectives à la fois par l’observation quadridimensionnelle et la modélisa- tion de leur cycle de vie. La campagne de terrain s’est déroulée en juin-juillet- août 2007 sur l’est de la France et le sud-ouest de l’Allemagne. Son objectif majeur était de fournir un jeu d’obser- vations météorologiques, in situ et à distance, aussi complet que possible et sur toute la profondeur de la colonne troposphérique.Après une brève revue d’ensemble du projet, l’article se concentre sur la contribution française à la campagne Cops, décrit le dispositif expérimental mis en œuvre et met en valeur quelques observations clés.
ISSN: 0026-1181

insu-01504075
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01504075
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01504075/document
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01504075/file/meteo_2009_64_32.pdf
DOI : 10.4267/2042/23632

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Météo et Climat
Résumé : International audience
Le premier volet du projet Cyprim vise à mieux identifier les précurseurs des cyclogenèses et des précipitations intenses en région méditerranéenne. Cet article en présente les principaux résultats. Il est question des ingrédients météorologiques à l'origine de ces systèmes, de la grande à la mésoéchelle, des causes des fortes intensités, localisations et parfois stationnarité des récipitations associées. Le coeur de l'article présente des méthodes d'identification des anomalies de tourbillon potentiel liées à l'occurrence d'événements précipitants intenses et dresse une climatologie de ces anomalies. Les perspectives d'exploitation de cette information pour améliorer la qualité des prévisions sont évoquées. ENGLISH VERSION: The first part of the CYPRIM project (Cyclogenesis and intense precipitations in the Mediterranean region) aims at a better identification of the precursor structures of cyclogenesis and heavy precipitation in the Mediterranean region. This article presents the main results. It mentions the meteorological ingredients from which these systems originate from the large to themesoscale, the reasons for large intensities, the localization and sometimes stationarity of the associated precipitations. The heart of the article shows methods for identifiying potential vorticity anomalies involved in the occurrence of heavy precipitation events and sets up a climatology of these anomalies.The perspectives of the usefulness of this information for improving forecast quality are discussed.
ISSN: 0026-1181

insu-00448250
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00448250
DOI : 10.4267/2042/28828

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Public Library of Science
Résumé : International audience
Understanding the factors underlying the spatio-temporal distribution of infectious diseases provides useful information regarding their prevention and control. Dengue fever spatio-temporal patterns result from complex interactions between the virus, the host, and the vector. These interactions can be influenced by environmental conditions. Our objectives were to analyse dengue fever spatial distribution over New Caledonia during epidemic years, to identify some of the main underlying factors, and to predict the spatial evolution of dengue fever under changing climatic conditions, at the 2100 horizon. We used principal component analysis and support vector machines to analyse and model the influence of climate and socio-economic variables on the mean spatial distribution of 24,272 dengue cases reported from 1995 to 2012 in thirty-three communes of New Caledonia. We then modelled and estimated the future evolution of dengue incidence rates using a regional downscaling of future climate projections. The spatial distribution of dengue fever cases is highly heterogeneous. The variables most associated with this observed heterogeneity are the mean temperature, the mean number of people per premise, and the mean percentage of unemployed people, a variable highly correlated with people's way of life. Rainfall does not seem to play an important role in the spatial distribution of dengue cases during epidemics. By the end of the 21st century, if temperature increases by approximately 3°C, mean incidence rates during epidemics could double. In New Caledonia, a subtropical insular environment, both temperature and socio-economic conditions are influencing the spatial spread of dengue fever. Extension of this study to other countries worldwide should improve the knowledge about climate influence on dengue burden and about the complex interplay between different factors. This study presents a methodology that can be used as a step by step guide to model dengue spatial heterogeneity in other countries.
ISSN: 1935-2727

Droits : http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
pasteur-01247037
https://hal-riip.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-01247037
https://hal-riip.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-01247037/document
https://hal-riip.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-01247037/file/journal.pntd.0004211.pdf
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004211

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD EDP Sciences
Résumé : Cette communication présente les principaux résultats du projet ExtraFlo sur l'estimation des pluies et crues extrêmes. A partir d'un jeu de données conséquent de plusieurs milliers de stations, une procédure d'inter-comparaison a permis d'évaluer les performances d'une trentaine d'implémentations différentes issues de différentes combinaisons (modèle probabiliste, méthode d'estimation, cadre local / régional / mixte local et régional). Le projet ExtraFlo a permis de mettre en évidence le manque de robustesse des approches basées sur le traitement statistique d'une série de quelques dizaines d'années d'observation. Des alternatives intéressantes existent, basées sur l'exploitation des records de pluie et de débit à l'échelle d'une région, de la collecte de données historiques quand cela est possible, de méthodes de simulation basées sur le couplage d'un générateur d'averses avec un modèle hydrologique pour la transformation des pluies en débit, ou des traces morphologiques laissées par les crues anciennes.
ISSN: 0018-6368

hal-01054313
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01054313
DOI : 10.1051/1hb/2014010

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : International audience
The Convective and Orographically-driven Precipitation Study (COPS) carried out in summer 2007 over northeastern France and southwestern Germany provided a fairly comprehensive description of the low-troposphere water-vapour field, thanks in particular to the deployment of two airborne differential absorption lidar systems. These lidar observations were assimilated using the 3D-Var assimilation system of the Application of Research to Operations at MEsoscale (AROME) numerical weather prediction mesoscale model. The assimilation was carried out for the period 4 July-3 August by running a three-hour forward intermittent assimilation cycle. First, the impact of the lidar observations was assessed by comparing the analyses with a set of more than 200 independent soundings. The lidar observations were found to have a positive impact on the analyses by reducing the dry bias in the first 500 m above ground level and by diminishing the root-mean-square error by roughly 15% in the first km. Then the impact of the lidar observations was assessed by comparing the precipitation forecasts (obtained with and without the lidar observations for the period 15 July-2 August) with the gridded precipitation observations provided by the Vienna Enhanced Resolution Analysis. In general, the impact was found to be positive but not significant for the 24 h precipitation and positive and significant for the 6 h precipitation, with an improvement lasting up to 24 h. Some selected case studies show that the improvement was obtained through a better depiction of convection initiation or through a more accurate positioning of the precipitation systems
ISSN: 0035-9009

hal-00659497
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00659497
DOI : 10.1002/qj.1864

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Météo et Climat
Résumé : International audience
Les risques hydrométéorologiques sont au coeur du programme de recherche HyMeX sur le cycle de l'eau en Méditerranée. HyMeX a pour ambition d'améliorer leur prévision, de mieux connaître leur variabilité à l'échelle pluriannuelle et de renseigner sur leur évolution, dans le contexte du changement climatique. À cette fin, deux campagnes de mesures dédiées à ces événements extrêmes (SOP1 : pluies intenses et crues rapides ; SOP2 : vents forts et formation d'eaux denses) sont organisées en Méditerranée nord-occidentale, entre septembre 2012 et mars 2013.
ISSN: 0026-1181

hal-00829760
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00829760
DOI : 10.4267/2042/48793

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
A dense, local network of 30 geodetic markers covering a 50 × 60 km2 area in the southwestern European Alps (Briançon region) has been temporarily surveyed in 1996, 2006 and 2011 by GPS. The aim is to measure the current deformation in this seismically active area. The study zone is characterized by a majority of extensional and dextral focal mechanisms, along north–south to N160 oriented faults. The combined analysis of the three measurement campaigns over 15 years and up to 16 years of permanent GPS data from the French RENAG network now enables to assess horizontal velocities below 1 mm/year within the local network. The long observation interval and the redundancy of the dense campaign network measurement help to constrain a significant local deformation pattern in the Briançon region, yielding an average E–W extension of 16 ± 11 nanostrain/year. We compare the geodetic deformation field to the seismic deformation rate cumulated over 37 years, and obtain good coherencies both in amplitude and direction. Moreover, the horizontal deformation localized in the Briançon region represents a major part of the Adriatic-European relative plate motion. However, the average uplift of the network in an extensional setting needs the presence of buoyancy forces in addition to plate tectonics.
ISSN: 0264-3707

hal-01119724
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01119724
DOI : 10.1016/j.jog.2015.02.001

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : International audience
Scientific interest in urban meteorology has increased because highly populated areas experience high vulnerability to pollution or heavy rain. However, compared to urban air quality or urban heat island (UHI) processes, the urban water vapour cycle is poorly understood because it has been investigated less due to the lack of upper-air measurements and the high sensitivity of surface measurements to local heterogeneities. In this paper, surface measurements of wind, temperature, pressure and humidity, as well as integrated water vapour (IWV) from GPS and MODIS and numerical simulations, have been used to investigate the urban cycle of water vapour in May and June 2004 during the VAPIC field experiment in the Paris area. The surface data show the typical characteristics of an urban area with the absence of water vapour sources and a UHI of about 6 °C at night. The urban IWV distribution differs completely, with an urban IWV excess on average between 1600 and 0600 UTC (with a maximum of about 1.5 kg m−2 at 0600 and 1700 UTC). No IWV difference between the urban and rural areas is found in the middle of the day. The numerical simulations reproduce accurately the urban IWV anomaly. Shallow surface wind convergence associated with the UHI during nighttime provides moisture from the rural areas. Urban areas are therefore under wind convergence for most of the time. The rural water vapour sources and the depth of the convergence control the amplitude of the urban IWV excess. At about 1200 UTC, entrainment at the top of the urban boundary layer is the key process that inhibits the urban IWV excess observed at night
ISSN: 0035-9009

hal-00406370
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00406370
DOI : 10.1002/qj.446

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union
Résumé : International audience
The impact of stratospheric ozone on the tropospheric general circulation of theSouthern Hemisphere (SH) is examined with a set of chemistry‐climate models participatingin the Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC)/Chemistry‐ClimateModel Validation project phase 2 (CCMVal‐2). Model integrations of both the past andfuture climates reveal the crucial role of stratospheric ozone in driving SH circulationchange: stronger ozone depletion in late spring generally leads to greater polewarddisplacement and intensification of the tropospheric midlatitude jet, and greater expansion ofthe SH Hadley cell in the summer. These circulation changes are systematic as polewarddisplacement of the jet is typically accompanied by intensification of the jet and expansion ofthe Hadley cell. Overall results are compared with coupled models participating in theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), andpossible mechanisms are discussed. While the tropospheric circulation response appearsquasi‐linearly related to stratospheric ozone changes, the quantitative response to a givenforcing varies considerably from one model to another. This scatter partly results fromdifferences in model climatology. It is shown that poleward intensification of the westerly jetis generally stronger in models whose climatological jet is biased toward lower latitudes.This result is discussed in the context of quasi‐geostrophic zonal mean dynamics.
ISSN: 2169-897X

hal-00337060
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00337060
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00337060/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00337060/file/Bock_et_al-2008-Journalsur Geophysical_Research__Solid_Earth_%281978-2012%29.pdf
DOI : 10.1029/2008JD010327

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : For operational forecasts anticipate convective inhibition processes is as important than convective initiation processes. Based on the 15th July 2007 case study this work shows how the morning shallow convection over the Vosges is inhibited while it develops over the Black Forest. This case occurs during IOP 8b of the Convective and Orographically-Induced Precipitation Study (COPS). This international field campaign took place during the summer of 2007 over the Vosges, the Rhine Valley and the Black-Forest. The aim of this intensive observation campaign was to study various phases of convection and convective environment and improve quantitative precipitation forecasts. Thanks to GPS tomography data the study show the differences of low-level water-vapor variability between Vosges and Black-Forest. The analysis of ground based and airborne lidar data suggests the importance of dry air layers advected from the south and the influence of the mountains and diurnal cycle of mountain breeze which interfere strongly with these layers preventing the dry air to reach the eastern side of the mountain and the Black Forest. This dynamics is confirmed by models, wind profiler and radiosounding data. So we show how the inhibition of the convection over the Vosges during this case study can be explained with the water vapor variability due to advection and local boundary layer processes.
31st ICAM (International Conference on Alpine Meteorology)
Aviemore, United Kingdom

hal-00668829
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00668829