Éditeur(s) : Amer Geophysical Union
Résumé : After the January 12, 2010, Haiti earthquake, we deployed a mainly offshore temporary network of seismologic stations around the damaged area. The distribution of the recorded aftershocks, together with morphotectonic observations and mainshock analysis, allow us to constrain a complex fault pattern in the area. Almost all of the aftershocks have a N-S compressive mechanism, and not the expected left-lateral strike-slip mechanism. A first-order slip model of the mainshock shows a N264 degrees E north-dipping plane, with a major left-lateral component and a strong reverse component. As the aftershock distribution is sub-parallel and close to the Enriquillo fault, we assume that although the cause of the catastrophe was not a rupture along the Enriquillo fault, this fault had an important role as a mechanical boundary. The azimuth of the focal planes of the aftershocks are parallel to the north-dipping faults of the Transhaitian Belt, which suggests a triggering of failure on these discontinuities. In the western part, the aftershock distribution reflects the triggering of slip on similar faults, and/or, alternatively, of the south-dipping faults, such the Trois-Baies submarine fault. These observations are in agreement with a model of an oblique collision of an indenter of the oceanic crust of the Southern Peninsula and the sedimentary wedge of the Transhaitian Belt: the rupture occurred on a wrench fault at the rheologic boundary on top of the under-thrusting rigid oceanic block, whereas the aftershocks were the result of the relaxation on the hanging wall along pre-existing discontinuities in the frontal part of the Transhaitian Belt. Citation: Mercier de Lepinay, B., et al. (2011), The 2010 Haiti earthquake: A complex fault pattern constrained by seismologic and tectonic observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L22305, doi:10.1029/2011GL049799.
Geophysical Research Letters (0094-8276) (Amer Geophysical Union), 2011-11 , Vol. 38 , N. L22305 , P. 7 p.

Droits : 2011 by the American Geophysical Union
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00054/16557/14071.pdf
DOI:10.1029/2011GL049799
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00054/16557/

Éditeur(s) : Amer Geophysical Union
Résumé : On November 21, 2004, a magnitude 6.3 earthquake occurred offshore, 10 km south of Les Saintes archipelago in Guadeloupe (French West Indies). There were more than 30000 aftershocks recorded in the following two years, most of them at shallow depth near the islands of the archipelago. The main shock and its main aftershock of February 14, 2005 (M-w = 5.8) ruptured a NE-dipping normal fault (Roseau fault), mapped and identified as active from high-resolution bathymetric data a few years before. This fault belongs to an arc-parallel en echelon fault system that follows the inner edge of the northern part of the Lesser Antilles arc, accommodating the sinistral component of oblique convergence between the North American and Caribbean plates. The distribution of aftershocks and damage (destruction and landslides) are consistent with the main fault plane location and attitude. The slip model of the main shock, obtained by inverting jointly global broadband and local strong motion records, is characterized by two main slip zones located 5 to 10 km to the SE and NW of the hypocenter. The main shock is shown to have increased the Coulomb stress at the tips of the ruptured plane by more than 4 bars where most of the aftershocks occurred, implying that failures on fault system were mainly promoted by static stress changes. The earthquake also had an effect on volcanic activity since the Boiling Lake in Dominica drained twice, probably as a result of the extensional strain induced by the earthquake and its main aftershock.
Journal Of Geophysical Research-solid Earth (0148-0227) (Amer Geophysical Union), 2011-10 , Vol. 116 , N. B10301 , P. 1-25

Droits : Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00200/31099/29511.pdf
DOI:10.1029/2011JB008310
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00200/31099/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union
Résumé : International audience
After the January 12, 2010, Haiti earthquake, we deployed a mainly offshore temporary network of seismologic stations around the damaged area. The distribution of the recorded aftershocks, together with morphotectonic observations and mainshock analysis, allow us to constrain a complex fault pattern in the area. Almost all of the aftershocks have a N‐S compressive mechanism, and not the expected left‐lateral strike‐slip mechanism. A first‐order slip model of the mainshock shows a N264°E north‐dipping plane, with a major left‐lateral component and a strong reverse component. As the aftershock distribution is sub‐parallel and close to the Enriquillo fault, we assume that although the cause of the catastrophe was not a rupture along the Enriquillo fault, this fault had an important role as a mechanical boundary. The azimuth of the focal planes of the aftershocks are parallel to the north‐dipping faults of the Transhaitian Belt, which suggests a triggering of failure on these discontinuities. In the western part, the aftershock distribution reflects the triggering of slip on similar faults, and/or, alternatively, of the south‐dipping faults, such the Trois‐Baies submarine fault. These observations are in agreement with a model of an oblique collision of an indenter of the oceanic crust of the Southern Peninsula and the sedimentary wedge of the Transhaitian Belt: the rupture occurred on a wrench fault at the rheologic boundary on top of the under‐thrusting rigid oceanic block, whereas the aftershocks were the result of the relaxation on the hanging wall along pre‐existing discontinuities in the frontal part of the Transhaitian Belt.
ISSN: 0094-8276

insu-00643489
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00643489
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00643489/document
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00643489/file/GRL-haiti.2011.pdf
DOI : 10.1029/2011GL049799

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : Point processes are often used as spatial or spatio-temporal distribution models of occurrences. In this PhD dissertation, we focus first on Cox processes driven by a hidden process associated with a Dirichlet process. This model corresponds to hidden occurrences influencing the stochastic intensity of observed occurrences. We generalize the notion of "Shot noise Cox process" introduced by M{o}ller and develop its bayesian analysis by a Gibbs sampler combined with a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. We show that our MCMC method is a reversible jump one. The model takes into account a random number of hidden contributions producing effects on the observed point process intensity. Therefore the parameter space has a variable dimension. We focus the statistical inference on the estimation of the hidden contribution expected value, the hidden contribution expected number, the spatial influence and correlation parameters. The contribution equality test and contribution independence test are proposed. Applications in epidemiology and ecology are shown from extit{Rubus fruticosa} data, extit{Ibicella lutea} data and death number data in counties of Georgia, USA. Two situations are considered with respect to available data~: firstly, the spatial positions of occurrences are observed between several pairs of consecutive dates; secondly, counts are carried out over a fixed time interval in several spatial sampling units. Secondly, we focus on point processes with memory introduced by Kagan, Ogata and Vere-Jones, pioneers in statistical seismology. In fact, spatio-temporal point processes play an important role in the studies of earthquake catalogs since they consist of seismic events with their dates and spatial locations. We studied an ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence) model with time independent background intensity and several triggering functions taking into account previous events. We illustrate our approach with a seismicity study of the Lesser Antilles arc. A comparaison study of Gamma, Weibull, Log-Normal and modified Omori law triggering function models is also carried out. We show that the modified Omori law does not fit the Lesser Antilles seismic data and the best adjusted triggering function is the Weibull model. Consequently, the waiting time between aftershocks is weaker in the Lesser Antilles zone compared to the one in regions with seismicity described by the modified Omori law. In other words, aftershock aggregativity is higher in the Lesser Antilles region. The stochastic background intensity following a Dirichlet process centered on a spatial log-normal process is discussed.
Les processus ponctuels sont souvent utilisés comme modèles de répartitions spatiales ou spatio-temporelles d'occurrences. Dans cette thèse, nous nous intéressons tout d'abord à des processus de Cox dirigés par un processus caché associé à un processus de Dirichlet. Ce modèle correspond à des occurrences cachées influençant l'intensité stochastique des occurrences observées. Nous généralisons la notion de " Shot noise Cox process " introduite par Moller et développons le traitement bayésien par un échantillonneur de Gibbs combiné à un algorithme de Metropolis-Hastings. Nous montrons que cette méthode MCMC est à sauts réversibles. Le modèle prend en compte, en effet, un nombre aléatoire de contributions cachées influençant l'intensité du processus ponctuel observé donc a un espace paramétrique de dimension variable. Nous focalisons l'inférence statistique sur l'estimation de la valeur espérée de chaque contribution cachée, le nombre espéré de contributions cachées, le degré d'influence spatiale de ces contributions et leur degré de corrélation. Le test d'égalité des contributions et celui de leur indépendance sont ainsi développés. L'utilité en épidémiologie et en écologie est alors démontrée à partir de données de Rubus fruticosa, Ibicella lutea et de mortalité dans les cantons de Georgia, USA. En termes de données observées, deux situations sont considérées: premièrement, les positions spatiales des occurrences sont observées entre plusieurs paires de dates consécutives; deuxièmement, des comptages sont effectués, au cours d'une période fixée, dans des unités d'échantillonnage spatiales. D'autre part, nous nous intéressons aux processus ponctuels à mémoire introduits par Kagan, Ogata et Vere-Jones, précurseurs de la statistique sismologique. En effet, les processus ponctuels spatio-temporels ont une place importante dans l'étude des catalogues sismiques puisque ces derniers sont généralement constitués d'événements sismiques datés et géo-référencés. Nous avons étudié un modèle ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence) avec une intensité d'arrière-plan indépendante du temps et plusieurs fonctions déclenchantes permettant d'intégrer les événements antérieurs récents. Cette approche est utilisée pour étudier la sismicité de l'arc des Petites Antilles. Une étude comparative des modèles Gamma, Weibull, Log-Normal et loi d'Omori modifiée pour les fonctions déclenchantes est menée. Nous montrons que la loi d'Omori modifiée ne s'ajuste pas aux données sismiques des Petites Antilles et la fonction déclenchante la plus adaptée est le modèle de Weibull. Cela implique que le temps d'attente entre répliques dans la zone des Petites Antilles est plus faible que celui des régions à sismicité décrite par la loi d'Omori modifiée. Autrement dit, l'agrégation des répliques après un événement majeur est plus prononcée dans la zone des Petites Antilles. La possibilité d'inclure une intensité d'arrière-plan suivant un processus de Dirichlet centré sur un processus spatial log-gaussien est discutée.
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00841146

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
NNT : 2012AGUY0555
tel-00841146
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00841146
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00841146/document
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00841146/file/these_VALMY.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD AGU and the Geochemical Society
Résumé : International audience
The 2004 Aceh and 2005 Nias events are the two greatest earthquakes of the past 40 years with a total rupture of 1700 km long and a coseismic slip reaching up to 25 m. These two earthquakes have caused large stress perturbations which significantly altered seismic activity in the Sumatra-Andaman region. Using both detailed mapping of failure planes and various slip distributions, we calculate this stress change along the Sumatra-Andaman-Sagaing fault system from central Sumatra to southern Myanmar. The static Coulomb stress change Delta CFF and the observed seismic activity are in very good agreement with a Coulomb index similar to 20% greater than the one obtained for random events. Compared to previous studies, this high Coulomb Index confirms two important issues on the use of static stress change criterion: unsuited to study near-field aftershocks and only relevant for aftershocks analysis on large and mature faults at a time scale of several months. The calculated Delta CFF distribution suggests that the 2004 and 2005 earthquakes inhibit failure on the North Andaman rift and on the Sagaing fault, while failure is encouraged along the transform Andaman zone, the central Andaman rift, the West Andaman fault, the Sumatra fault system, and the offshore thrust faults west of Sumatra Island. The maximum value of similar to 15-20 bar (1.5-2 MPa) for Delta CFF is reached in the northern part of the Sumatra fault system. This high value together with the lack of major earthquake in the last 170 years result in a high seismic hazard for this region. Our results are also consistent with temporal evolution of both earthquakes' location and focal mechanism prior to and after the events. In particular, we explain the occurrence and the mechanism of seismic swarms observed in the central Andaman rift and along the west Andaman fault. Finally, our calculations reveal that the seismicity in the Andaman rift zone can only be explained if mu' > 0.5. This result leads to two end-member models: one with a constant and high fault friction and one with spatial variations, for which friction may depend on either the nature of the lithosphere (oceanic versus continental) or the fault type.
ISSN: 1525-2027

hal-00456027
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00456027
DOI : 10.1029/2008GC002167

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : The Lesser Antilles is an area of high volcanic and earthquake activity, characterized by a 1000 km convergence zone resulting from the Atlantic plate subduction under the Caribbean plate with a slow convergent motion (2 cm/year). With five years of available data, the CDSA data base presents a more homogeneous vision of Lesser Antilles arc seismicity and allows detecting low seismic activity zones, in the north near the Virgin Islands, and in the south between St-Lucia and Grenada. The accuracy improvements of location is used to better study the relationship between tectonic structures and seismicity, to better define the subduction slab geometry, and to analyse the spatial variations of the Gutenberg-Richter law b-value. Concerning the 21 november 2004 Les Saintes earthquake, EMS98 intensities in Les Saintes islands were evaluated from an individual request and hypocenter relocalisations of the Les Saintes earthquake and the biggest aftershock of 14 february 2005 were made using a method of master/slave in order to contrain the seismic source of the mainchock. As seismic hazard assessment depends from strong ground motion generated by earthquakes, the last part of this work concerns modeling accelerometric records of the Les Saintes earthquakes, combining a composite source model with an empirical Green Function technique. In our study, we used Les Saintes aftershocks as Empirical Green Function.
L'arc des Petites Antilles situé sur la bordure nord-est de la plaque Caraïbe, résulte d'un phénomène de subduction, les plaques américaines plongeant sous celle de la Caraïbe avec une vitesse de 2 cm/an. Les Antilles Françaises représentent la région française où le risque sismique est le plus important. Ce travail dont l'objectif est d'améliorer la connaissance de l'aléa sismique dans les Antilles Françaises, repose sur les données du Réseau Accélérométrique Permanent (RAP) et sur celles du « Centre de Données des Antilles Françaises ». L'analyse de ces données permet de mieux contraindre la sismicité de l'arc. Deux zones de très faible sismicité sont mises en évidence : au nord près des Iles Vierges et au sud entre Sainte-Lucie et Grenade. D'autres points sont aussi résolus : imagerie de la subduction le long de l'arc, relations entre la sismicité superficielle et la tectonique active, variations de la pente (b-value) de la loi de Gutenberg-Richter. Le séisme majeur du 21 novembre 2004 Mw=6.3 est au cœur des deux derniers chapitres. Plusieurs aspects y sont présentés : macrosismicité avec l'évaluation d'intensités EMS98 obtenues du dépouillement de formulaires individuels recueillis pour les Iles des Saintes, et relocalisation par la méthode de maître/esclave du choc principal et de sa plus forte réplique du 14 février 2005, de façon à mieux contraindre l'imagerie de la source du choc principal, étape primordiale pour la dernière partie portant sur la modélisation des signaux du choc principal des Saintes. Nous tentons dans cette dernière partie de modéliser les enregistrements de mouvements forts avec une approche semi-empirique en se basant sur un modèle stochastique large-bande et proposons l'utilisation de plusieurs Fonctions de Green Empiriques (FGE) sélectionnées parmi les répliques du séisme des Saintes.
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00409021

tel-00409021
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00409021
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00409021/document
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00409021/file/these_BengoubouMendy_2008.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Nature Publishing Group
Résumé : International audience
Large earthquakes nucleate at tectonic plate boundaries, and their occurrence within a plate's interior remains rare and poorly documented, especially offshore. The two large earthquakes that struck the northeastern Indian Ocean on 11 April 2012 are an exception: they are the largest strike-slip events reported in historical times1, 2 and triggered large aftershocks worldwide3. Yet they occurred within an intra-oceanic setting along the fossil fabric of the extinct Wharton basin, rather than on a discrete plate boundary4, 5, 6, 7, 8. Here we show that the 11 April 2012 twin earthquakes are part of a continuing boost of the intraplate deformation between India and Australia that followed the Aceh 2004 and Nias 2005 megathrust earthquakes, subsequent to a stress transfer process recognized at other subduction zones9, 10. Using Coulomb stress change calculations, we show that the coseismic slips of the Aceh and Nias earthquakes can promote oceanic left-lateral strike-slip earthquakes on pre-existing meridian-aligned fault planes. We further show that persistent viscous relaxation in the asthenospheric mantle several years after the Aceh megathrust explains the time lag between the 2004 megathrust and the 2012 intraplate events. On a short timescale, the 2012 events provide new evidence for the interplay between megathrusts at the subduction interface and intraplate deformation offshore. On a longer geological timescale, the Australian plate, driven by slab-pull forces at the Sunda trench, is detaching from the Indian plate, which is subjected to resisting forces at the Himalayan front6, 8, 11.
ISSN: 0028-0836

hal-00767569
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00767569
DOI : 10.1038/nature11520

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
In this paper, we present the first estimate of the Holocene deformation along the southern front of Gibraltar arc (Morocco) and the first field constraints on the local 1755 CE Fes-Meknes surface rupturing earthquake which could be associated to the “Great Lisbon Earthquake” (M > 8.5) in November 1st, 1755. Using satellite imagery, aerial photographs and field investigations, we carried out a morphotectonic study along the ~ 150 km-long Southern Rif Front (SRF) to identify the most recent evidences of tectonic activity. Analyzed offset alluvial deposits confirm that (i) the last ~ 5 ka cumulative deformation leading to a slip rate of ~ 3.5 ± 1 mm/yr for this segment of the SRF is consistent with the GPS derived horizontal shortening rate of 2–4 mm/yr and (ii) a recent major earthquake ruptured a ~ 30 km-long segment along the SRF. Based on deposits dating and historical seismicity we propose that this seismic event occurred in 1755 as a local earthquake. Even though this 1755 local event cannot be considered as a strong aftershock of the main Lisbon seismic event (M > 8.5), their temporal closeness, their occurrence under the same convergent stress regime (~ NNW-SSE-oriented compression) and the fact that Fes-Meknes area was strongly shaken during the Lisbon earthquake, raises the question of the possible triggering of the Fes earthquake. Anyway, our new results suggest that most of the Nubia-Rif belt convergence is accommodated by the SRF, making it potentially the most destructive structure of the Rif.
ISSN: 0040-1951

hal-01622048
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01622048
DOI : 10.1016/j.tecto.2017.05.036

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Oxford University Press (OUP)
Résumé : International audience
A network of 54 survey GPS sites, 28 continuous GPS stations and three absolute gravity (AG) observation sites have been set up in the Alborz mountain range to quantify the present-day kinematics of the range. Our results allow us to accurately estimate the motion of the South Caspian block (SCB) for the first time, and indicate rotation of the SCB relative to Eurasia, accounting for the left lateral motion in the Alborz range. In light of these new results, it clearly appears that deformation rates vary along the range, the eastern part accommodating mainly left lateral strike slip (2 mm yr(-1) south of the range and 5 mm yr(-1) north of the range) with a very low range normal shortening rate on the Khazar thrust fault (similar to 2 mm yr(-1)), and the western part accommodating range normal shortening (similar to 6 mm yr-1) on the Khazar thrust fault with a left lateral component of similar to 2 mm yr(-1) north of the range and 1 mm yr(-1) south of the range. These present-day kinematics agree with geomorphologic estimated slip rates, but not the long-term deformation, corroborating the idea that the kinematics of the range have changed recently due to the change of SCB motion.;Modelling of the interseismic deformation suggests a deep locking depth on the central-western segment of the Khazar fault (similar to 30 km) in agreement with the Baladeh earthquake rupture and aftershock ranging between 10 and 30 km. Given this unusual deep locking depth and the 34 degrees dip of the thrust, a large part of the Alborz range is located above the seismically coupled part of the fault. Based on our AG measurements this part of the range seems to uplift at a rate of 1-5 mm yr(-1), in agreement with terrace uplift.
ISSN: 0956-540X

hal-00617146
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00617146
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00617146v2/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00617146/file/djamour2010.pdf
DOI : 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04811.x

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
We report preliminary results of a seismological experiment, SEISMOTANZ'07, which consisted in the deployment of a local network (35 stations) in the East African Rift System (EARS), North Tanzania, during 6 months in 2007. We compare two earthquake sequences (Gelai and Manyara) occurring respectively in the southern end of the Kenya rift and in the North Tanzanian Divergence (NTD). Only distant of 150 km, their triggering mechanisms are different. None of the sequences depicts typical swarm or mainshock-aftershock patterns. They highlight the change in the magmatic/tectonic nature of the rift where the eastern branch of the EARS enters the Tanzanian craton. The similar shape and long-axis of the elongate sequences emphasize the preferred locus of active strain release along NE-SW discontinuities which probably root at depth into steep Proterozoic shear zones. At Gelai, the deformation is dominated by aseismic process involving slow slip on normal fault and dyke intrusion within the upper crust Calais_et_al_2008. The spatial and temporal earthquake distribution indicates a possible correlation between the Gelai crisis and the eruption of the nearby Oldoinyo Lengai volcano. At Manyara, the sequence is more uncommon, revealing a long-lasting seismic activity deepely rooted (20-35 km depth) possibly related to stress loading transmitted laterally. The yield stress envelope modelled from the depth frequency distribution of earthquakes in the NTD is consistent with the presence of a mafic lower crust and further supports the strength increase of the rifted crust from south Kenya to the NTD.
ISSN: 0899-5362

hal-00420599
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00420599
DOI : 10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2009.09.005

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
Nous nous intéressons aux processus ponctuels auto-excitatifs introduits par Ogata en 1998 et discutés par Zhuang et al. (2005). Ce modèle peut être vu comme une extension, dans un premier temps du processus ponctuel présenté par Hawkes en 1971 et, dans un second temps du modèle de type épidémique temporel proposé par Ogata en 1988. Il s'agit du modèle spatio-temporel ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence) intégrant l'aspect spatio-temporel et les marques. Une de ses utilisations est le calcul de risques sismiques dans une région. Nous étudions les propriétés de la log-vraisemblance et des estimateurs de maximum de vraisemblance dans le cadre d'une application relative à la sismologie de l'Arc Antillais. Des données de tremblements de terre mesurées entre 1999 et 2004 sont analysées et l'adéquation au modèle ETAS est testée.
43èmes Journées de la Statistique
Gammarth, Tunisia

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
hal-00601512
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00601512
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00601512/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00601512/file/ValmySfds2011.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
Calculation of seismic risks in a zone are based on stochastic models describing at best the seismic activity. Our focus is the spatio-temporal evolution of the probability of earthquake occurrences. The main modelling tool is the theory of the point processes. We discuss about the spatio-temporal extension of ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence) with marks and study the properties of the log-likelihood and the maximum likelihood estimators. Seismic data from the Lesser Antilles Arc carried out between 1999 and 2004 are analyzed.
39th Annual Meeting of the Statistical Society of Canada
Wolfville, Canada

hal-00601513
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00601513

Résumé : Les processus ponctuels sont souvent utilisés comme modèles de répartitions spatiales ou spatio-temporelles d'occurrences Dans cette thèse, nous nous intéressons à des processus de Cox dirigés par un processus caché associé à un processus de Dirichlet. Ce modèle correspond à des occurrences cachées influençant l'intensité stochastique des occurrences observées. Nous généralisons la notion de Shot noise Cox process et développons le traitement bayésien. Nous focalisons l'inférence statistique sur l'estimation de la valeur espérée de chaque contribution cachée, leur nombre espéré, degré d'influence spatiale et degré de corrélation L'utilité en épidémiologie et en écologie est démontrée à partir de données de Rubus fruticosa, lbicella lutea et de mortalité dans les cantons de Georgie, USA. En termes de données observées, deux situations sont considérées: d'abord, les positions spatiales des occurrences sont observées entre plusieurs paires de dates consécutives; puis, des comptages sont effectués dans des unités d'échantillonnage spatiales. D'autre part, nous nous intéressons aux processus ponctuels à mémoire introduits par Kagan, Ogata et Vere-Jones. En effet, les processus ponctuels ont une place importante dans l'étude des catalogues sismiques. Nous avons étudié un modèle Epidemie Type Aftershock Sequence avec une intensité d'arrière-plan indépendante du temps et plusieurs fonctions déclenchantes permettant d'intégrer les événements antérieurs récents. Cette approche est utilisée pour étudier la sismicité des Petites Antilles. Une étude comparative des modèles Gamma, Weibull, Log-Normal et loi d'Omori modifiée pour les fonctions déclenchantes est menée.
Point processes are often used as spatial or spatio-temporal distribution models of occurrences. In this Phd dissertation, we focus first on Cox processes driven by a hidden process associated with a Dirichlet process. This model corresponds to hidden occurrences influencing the stochastic intensity of observed occurrences. We generalize the notion of Shot noise Cox process and develop its bayesian analysis. We focus the statistical inference on the estimation of the hidden contribution expected value, the hidden contribution expected number, the spatial influence and correlation parameters. Applications in epidemiology and ecology are shown from Rubus fruticosa data, Ibicella lutea data and death number data in counties of Georgia, USA. Two situations are considered with respect to available data: firstly, the spatial positions of occurrences are observed between several pairs of consecutive dates; secondly, counts are carried out over a fixed time interval in several spatial sampling units. Secondly, we focus on point processes with memory intr oduced by Kagan, Ogata and Vere-Jones. Spatio-temporal point processes play an important role in the studies of earthquake catalogs since they consist of seismic events with their dates and spatial locations. We studied an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model with time independent background intensity and several triggering functions taking into account previous events. We illustrate our approach with a seismicity study of the Lesser Antilles arc. A comparaison study of Gamma, Weibull, Log-Normal and modified Omori law triggering function models is also carried out

http://www.theses.fr/2012AGUY0555/document

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
Dans la cadre de calcul de risques sismiques, nous nous intéressons aux processus ponctuels auto-excitatifs. Une étude comparative de deux modèles est effectuée, il s'agit des modèles ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence) introduit et modifié par Ogata (1988, 1998) et BASS (Branching AfterSchock Sequence) introduit par Turcotte et al. (2007).
19th Caribbean Geological Conference 2011
Le Gosier, Guadeloupe

hal-00601511
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00601511

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
Extreme rainfall events can trigger numerous landslides in mountainous areas and a prolonged increase of river sediment load. The resulting mass transfer at the Earth surface in turn induces stress changes at depth, which could be sufficient to trigger shallow earthquakes. The 2009 Morakot typhoon represents a good case study as it delivered 3 m of precipitation in 3 days and caused some of the most intense erosion ever recorded. Analysis of seismicity time-series before and after the Morakot typhoon reveals a systematic increase of shallow (i.e. 0-15 km of depth) earthquake frequency in the vicinity of the areas displaying a high spatial density of landslides. This step-like increase in frequency lasts for at least 2-3 years and does not follow an Omori-type aftershock sequence. Rather, it is associated to a step change of the Gutenberg-Richter b-value of the earthquake catalog. Both changes occurred in mountainous areas of southwest Taiwan, where typhoon Morakot caused extensive landsliding. These spatial and temporal correlations strongly suggest a causal relationship between the Morakot-triggered landslides and the increase of earthquake frequency and their associated b-value. We propose that the progressive removal of landslide materials from the steep mountain landscape by river sediment transport acts as an approximately constant increase of the stress rate with respect to pre-typhoon conditions, and that this in turn causes a step-wise increase in earthquake frequency. To test this hypothesis, we investigate the response of a rate-and-state fault to stress changes using a 2-D continuum elasto-dynamic model. Consistent with the results of Ader et al. (2013), our preliminary results show a step-like increase of earthquake frequency in response to a step-like decrease of the fault normal stress. We also investigate the sensitivity of the amplitude and time-scale of the earthquake frequency increase to the amplitude of the normal stress change and to rheological parameters. Our study offers new insights on the potential influence of extreme erosional events on the short-time scale dynamics of faults and earthquakes.
American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2016
San Francisco, United States

insu-01416987
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01416987

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Oxford University Press (OUP)
Résumé : International audience
The interpretation of coseismic surface deformation measurements through inversion techniques is of major importance to understand the mechanical behaviour of a seismic fault. Dense geodetic data sets in the vicinity of the ruptured fault provide unique constraints on detailed fault geometry and slip distribution at depth, making them complementary to seismological data. Bam earthquake (Mw 6.6, 2003 December 26) induced surface deformation has been precisely mapped by Envisat ASAR interferometry and by subpixel correlation techniques applied to Spot-5 and ASAR amplitude images. These oblique and horizontal estimations of deformation have been completed with one levelling profile along the main road crossing the rupture from west to east. We process these data (separately and jointly) in a two-step inversion technique, within the elastic half-space theory framework. Our objective is to determine the dislocation model at depth that satisfies simultaneously all the geodetic constraints. Also, we estimate the relative contribution of each geodetic data set to this inversion process.We first use a stochastic direct approach called neighbourhood algorithm in order to estimate the average characteristics of the rupture, and their relative uncertainty. Constraining in this way the geometry of the ruptured fault, we then linearize the inverse problem and compute the slip distribution on the fault using a standard weighted least-square technique, assuming the solution is smooth to some degree. At each step, we discuss the optimal models, their stability as well as the relative influence of each data set on the derived models parameters. Our preferred model reveals a shallow dislocation on a quasi-vertical fault, slightly dipping towards east. The slip vector has a strike-slip component as high as 2 m, while the dip-slip component seems negligible.However, the estimation of the resolution matrices emphasizes the fact that the details of deep fault slip distribution remain out of the scope of this ill-conditioned inverse problem. Yet, our preferred model suggests a main dislocation limited at depth between 1 and 6 km. By contrast, the aftershocks observed in the months following the earthquake are located just beneath the estimated main shock.
ISSN: 0956-540X

hal-00314173
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00314173
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00314173/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00314173/file/GJI-2007-169-849-briole.pdf
DOI : 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03358.x