Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
As climate change continues to impact socio-ecological systems, tools that assist conservation managers to understand vulnerability and target adaptations are essential. Quantitative assessments of vulnerability are rare because available frameworks are complex and lack guidance for dealing with data limitations and integrating across scales and disciplines. This paper describes a semi-quantitative method for assessing vulnerability to climate change that integrates socio-ecological factors to address management objectives and support decision-making. The method applies a framework first adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and uses a structured 10-step process. The scores for each framework element are normalized and multiplied to produce a vulnerability score and then the assessed components are ranked from high to low vulnerability. Sensitivity analyses determine which indicators most influence the analysis and the resultant decision-making process so data quality for these indicators can be reviewed to increase robustness. Prioritisation of components for conservation considers other economic, social and cultural values with vulnerability rankings to target actions that reduce vulnerability to climate change by decreasing exposure or sensitivity and/or increasing adaptive capacity. This framework provides practical decision-support and has been applied to marine ecosystems and fisheries, with two case applications provided as examples: (1) food security in Pacific Island nations under climate-driven fish declines, and (2) fisheries in the Gulf of Carpentaria, northern Australia. The step-wise process outlined here is broadly applicable and can be undertaken with minimal resources using existing data, thereby having great potential to inform adaptive natural resource management in diverse locations.
ISSN: 0308-597X

hal-01380403
https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01380403
DOI : 10.1016/j.marpol.2016.09.024

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : 1. A recent article published by Toledo (2011b) investigates the effects of spatial variations in climate and soil, and of logging disturbance, on tree and forest growth in Bolivia. It concludes that climate is the strongest driver of tree and forest growth and that climate change may therefore have large consequences for forest productivity and carbon sequestration. However, serious methodological and conceptual discrepancies have been found that challenge these conclusions.[br/] 2. Because of an errant coding of time after logging in the regression analysis, and because floristic changes induced by logging could not be incorporated into the analysis, the effect of logging on the average diameter growth is likely to have been strongly underestimated.[br/] 3. Basal area growth was improperly calculated as basal area change, and it displayed surprisingly high values, even among unlogged plots. We hypothesize that either these plots may be actually located in secondary forests recovering from past logging, or measurement biases may have hampered the data set.[br/] 4. Regardless of climategrowth relationships established across these plots, any inference concerning the potential effects of climate change on forest growth would require a specific quantitative assessment.[br/] 5. Synthesis. It is critical to re-assess the relative weight of climate and logging disturbance as driving factors of tree and forest growth, and to find an explanation for the very high basal area increment reported among the unlogged plots. We provide specific recommendations for further analyses of this and similar data sets.
ISSN: 0022-0477

hal-01032432
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01032432
DOI : 10.1111/j.1365-2745.2011.01895.x

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Public Library of Science
Résumé : Climate models predict a range of changes in tropical forest regions, including increased average temperatures, decreased total precipitation, reduced soil moisture and alterations in seasonal climate variations. These changes are directly related to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, primarily CO2. Assessing seasonal forest growth responses to climate is of utmost importance because woody tissues, produced by photosynthesis from atmospheric CO2, water and light, constitute the main component of carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystem. In this paper, we combine intra-annual tree growth measurements from published tree growth data and the corresponding monthly climate data for 25 pan-tropical forest sites. This meta-analysis is designed to find the shared climate drivers of tree growth and their relative importance across pan-tropical forests in order to improve carbon uptake models in a global change context. Tree growth reveals significant intra-annual seasonality at seasonally dry sites or in wet tropical forests. Of the overall variation in tree growth, 28.7% was explained by the site effect, i.e. the tree growth average per site. The best predictive model included four climate variables: precipitation, solar radiation (estimated with extrasolar radiation reaching the atmosphere), temperature amplitude and relative soil water content. This model explained more than 50% of the tree growth variations across tropical forests. Precipitation and solar radiation are the main seasonal drivers of tree growth, causing 19.8% and 16.3% of the tree growth variations. Both have a significant positive association with tree growth. These findings suggest that forest productivity due to tropical tree growth will be reduced in the future if climate extremes, such as droughts, become more frequent.
ISSN: 1932-6203

hal-01268529
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01268529
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01268529/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01268529/file/journal.pone.0092337.PDF
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0092337

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : Poster
The Lesser Caucasus in Armenia is an active volcanic and tectonic zone which resulted from the collision of the Arabian and the Eurasian plates since Neogene times. The During Quaternary, Lesser Caucasus was uplifted (0.3 mm/yr; Mitchell and Westaway, 1999) and experienced extensional tectonics times. Large lakes developed in graben structures. The diatomitic sequences of the Shamb paleo-lake (South Armenia) offer a rare opportunity to give new insights of Western Asia paleo-climate. Based on macroflora analysis, Bruch and Gabrielyan (2002) proposed a cooling and drying general climate trend through Pleistocene times in relation with a general uplift of the chain. Several questions have to be answer for this poorly investigated region. Did the climate record humid glacials and arid interglacials as suggested northward in Kazakhstan? What are the vegetation and climate responses to orbital parameters and to the monsoon? Moreover the lesser Caucasus is known as the entrance way used by the first hominids in Eurasia during Pleistocene time. How was the environment at this time? We present an integrated palynological, 40Ar/39Ar isotopic and magnetostratigraphic study for the most complete section (Joannin et al., in press). 40Ar/39Ar dating of two volcaniclastic layers provided ages of 1.24 ± 0.03 and 1.16 ± 0.02 Ma (2. Magnetostratigraphic data show that the entire Shamb section is of reversed polarity which correlates with part of the Matuyama period (1.785-1.070 Ma). Pollen assemblages and macroremains diversity revealed an alternation of glacial and interglacial phases that are compared with climate changes inferred from the global isotopic curve. The Shamb section ranges from approximately 1.300 to 1.080 Ma in age (marine isotopic stages 40 to 31). The vegetation of the Lesser Caucasus developed in a mosaic pattern in a Pleistocene continental, mostly arid climate, similar to the present-day climate. The vegetation changes record a dominant climate response to the obliquity orbital parameter. The influence of precession could not be established from the Shamb data. Pollen and macroflora both indicate that glacial periods were cold and dry and that interglacials were warm with local humidity. The early Pleistocene climatic model for Western Asia is thus similar to the climatic model for the Mediterranean area. Bruch, A., Gabrielyan, I.G., 2002. Quantitative data of the Neogene climatic development in Armenia and Nakhichevan. Acta Universitatis Carolinae – Geologica 46, 41–48. Joannin, S., Cornée, J.J., Münch, P., Fornari, M., Vasiliev, J., Krijgsman, W., Nahapetyan, S., Gabrielyan, Y., Ollivier, V., Roiron, P., Chataîgnier, C. In press. Early Pleistocene climatic cycles in continental deposits of the Lesser Caucasus of Armenia inferred from palynology, magnetostratigraphy, and 40Ar/39Ar dating. Earth and Planetary Science Letters. Mitchell, J., Westaway, R., 1999. Chronology of Neogene and Quaternary uplift and magmatism in the Caucasus: constraints from K-Ar dating of volcanism in Armenia. Tectonophysics 304, 157–186.
EGU Eurasian Climate and Tectonics
Vienne, Austria

hal-00481799
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00481799

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : Climate change is one of the biggest public health threats in the 21th century. An increase in temperatures will lead to an increase in mortality attributable to temperature. In addition, some populations and territories are particularly vulnerable to the impact of increases in heat. It is thus necessary to identify these populations and territories as well as examine future heat-Related health impacts in order to recommend equity-Oriented policies today and in the future. The general objective of this thesis is to document current and future heat-Related vulnerability factors in the context of climate change. In order to address this general objective, the thesis involved four components: a) to conduct a systematic review and a meta-Analysis to assess the heterogeneity in the heat-Mortality associations with respect to individual and contextual population characteristics; b) to identify whether and how the magnitude of mean temperature effects on all-Cause mortality were modified by chronic air pollution exposure, social deprivation, and a combination of these two dimensions; c) to develop a method to quantify the climate change impacts on heat-Related mortality using climate modeling; d) to assess historical and future social disparities in years of life lost caused by ambient temperature in Montreal and Paris, and compare these estimates as well as the impact of climate change on social disparities between the two cities. This thesis highlights which populations are more vulnerable to heat and shows that several differences exist with regard to guidelines from international public health institutions for the identification of vulnerable populations. This thesis also identified chronic air pollution exposure as a new vulnerability factor in heat-Related mortality and that it has a double interaction with social deprivation. Furthermore, in this thesis a novel method to quantify future heat-Related mortality was developed which emphasized the strong evidence of an increase in heat-Related mortality under climate change. This method was then applied to estimate the increase in daily years of life lost social disparities in both Montreal and Paris under climate change which showed that this increase would be greater in Montreal compared to Paris in the future. Thus, this thesis which used a variety of epidemiologic methods has clarified which populations are particularly vulnerable to heat impacts and challenges guidelines for the identification of vulnerable populations from international public health institutions. It has also highlighted the climate change impacts on health inequalities and aims to reorient equity-Focused policies.
Les changements climatiques constituent l’un des enjeux les plus importants en santé publique du XXIème siècle. En effet, une hausse des températures provoquera une hausse de la mortalité attribuable à la chaleur. En outre, certaines populations et territoires sont particulièrement vulnérables aux effets de la chaleur. Il est donc nécessaire de les identifier clairement ainsi que les impacts futurs pour orienter avec équité les politiques publiques aujourd’hui et à l’avenir. L’objectif de cette thèse est de documenter les facteurs de vulnérabilité à la chaleur dans le présent et les éléments permettant leur prise en compte pour l’avenir dans le contexte des changements climatiques. Quatre étapes ont été menées pour répondre à cet objectif : a) Mener une revue systématique et une méta-Analyse des facteurs de vulnérabilité face aux risques de mortalité en lien avec la chaleur ; b) Analyser si l’exposition chronique à la pollution atmosphérique modifie la relation entre la chaleur et la mortalité dans un contexte urbain (Paris) et explorer la double interaction avec la défaveur sociale ; c) Développer une méthode de quantification des impacts liés à la chaleur en lien avec les changements climatiques en intégrant une grande diversité de simulations climatiques ; d) Estimer les inégalités d’années de vies perdues attribuables à la chaleur et leurs projections futures dans deux contextes distincts (Montréal et Paris) et comparer ces inégalités. Cette thèse a permis de mettre en évidence sur la base de la littérature épidémiologique les groupes de population qui sont les plus vulnérables face aux effets de la chaleur et de montrer qu’il y a plusieurs divergences par rapport aux recommandations émises par les institutions de santé publique vis-À-Vis de l’identification de populations vulnérables. Cette thèse a permis également d’identifier l’exposition chronique à la pollution atmosphérique comme nouveau facteur de vulnérabilité à la chaleur et que cette vulnérabilité était encore plus prononcée lorsqu’il s’agissait de populations défavorisées socialement. Puis, une méthode permettant de quantifier l’impact des changements climatiques sur les décès attribuables à la chaleur et ses sources d’incertitudes a été développée, et a permis de mettre en évidence que la probabilité que les changements climatiques conduisent à une augmentation de la mortalité en lien avec la chaleur est très forte. Cette méthode a ensuite été utilisée pour estimer que l’augmentation de la température conduira à une augmentation des inégalités sociales d’années de vie perdues à la fois à Montréal et à Paris, l’effet des changements climatiques sur l’accroissement de ces inégalités étant plus fort à Montréal qu’à Paris. Cette thèse, en se basant sur diverses méthodes épidémiologiques, a permis dans l’ensemble de clarifier quelles populations étaient particulièrement à risque face aux effets de la chaleur et de questionner les recommandations émises par les organismes tels que l’OMS. Elle a également permis de montrer l’effet des changements climatiques sur l’évolution de vulnérabilités face à la chaleur pour inciter dès aujourd’hui la mise en place de politiques publiques équitables et limiter l’impact des changements climatiques sur l’accroissement des inégalités de santé.
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01456772

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
NNT : 2015PA11T003
tel-01456772
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01456772
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01456772/document
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01456772/file/VA_BENMARHNIA_TARIK_05022015.pdf

Éditeur(s) : Université des Antilles Études caribéennes
Résumé : This study explores weather perceptions, evaluations and behavior of holiday-tourists to the French Caribbean island of La Martinique. Herein, the importance of selected weather parameters for a ‘typical’ summer holiday, for the choice that was made in coming to Martinique and for planned activities is examined. 32 snapshot interviews were held in two brief time periods within a month. Results illustrated slight differences in climate preferences for respondents depending whether they come from a cold or from a warm climate country, that activity patterns seemed overall little influenced by changing weather conditions and that the experienced weather, which was marked by heavy rains in the first data collection period and by changeable weather in the second, appeared to take only a limited impact on return intentions. Albeit the limited possibility of a pilot study to produce valid and reliable findings, variables and factors which are critical to consider when examining weather perceptions and behaviors have been pointed out and presented in a conceptual model for further research.
Cette étude explore les perceptions et les évaluations des conditions météorologiques et les comportements des vacanciers sur l'île de la Martinique. A ce sujet, l´étude examine l'influence de certains paramètres météorologiques sélectionnés sur des vacances d'été «typiques», sur le choix de la destination Martinique et sur les activités envisagées sur lieu. 32 interviews instantanées ont eu lieu en deux courtes périodes de temps pendant un mois. Les résultats illustraient qu´il y avait de légères différences concernant les préférences climatiques selon que les répondants venaient d'un pays au climat froid ou chaud, que les schémas d'activité semblaient généralement peu influencés par les changements météorologiques et que le temps - marquées par de fortes pluies dans la première période de la collecte de données et par un temps variable dans la seconde période - semblait n´avoir qu´un impact limité sur les intentions à revenir à la Martinique. Bien que l´étude pilote n´ait que des possibilités limitées de fournir des résultats valides et fiables, elle identifie les variables et les facteurs qui sont essentiels à considérer lors d´un projet de recherche qui examine la perception des conditions météorologiques par les touristes et les comportements qui en résultent. Ces facteurs sont présentés dans un modèle conceptuel.
Martinique

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
urn:doi:10.4000/etudescaribeennes.5323
http://journals.openedition.org/etudescaribeennes/5323

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier Masson
Résumé :  
Modeling soil water availability for tropical trees is a prerequisite to predicting the future impact of climate change on tropical forests. In this paper we develop a discrete-time deterministic water balance model adapted to tropical rainforest climates, and we validate it on a large dataset that includes micrometeorological and soil parameters along a topographic gradient in a lowland forest of French Guiana. The model computes daily water fluxes (rainfall interception, drainage, tree transpiration and soil plus understorey evapotranspiration) and soil water content using three input variables: daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and solar radiation. A novel statistical approach is employed that uses Time Domain Reflectometer (TDR) soil moisture data to estimate water content at permanent wilting point and at field capacity, and root distribution. Inaccuracy of the TDR probes and other sources of uncertainty are taken into account by model calibration through a Bayesian framework. Model daily output includes relative extractable water, REW, i.e. the daily available water standardized by potential available water. The model succeeds in capturing temporal variations in REW regardless of topographic context. The low Root Mean Square Error of Predictions suggests that the model captures the most important drivers of soil water dynamics, i.e. water refilling and root water extraction. Our model thus provides a useful tool to explore the response of tropical forests to climate scenarios of changing rainfall regime and intensity.
ISSN: 0168-1923

hal-01032181
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01032181
DOI : 10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.04.012

Éditeur(s) : Pergamon-elsevier Science Ltd
Résumé : Society's needs for a network of in situ ocean observing systems cross many areas of earth and marine science. Here we review the science themes that benefit from data supplied from ocean observatories. Understanding from existing studies is fragmented to the extent that it lacks the coherent long-term monitoring needed to address questions at the scales essential to understand climate change and improve geo-hazard early warning. Data sets from the deep sea are particularly rare with long-term data available from only a few locations worldwide. These science areas have impacts on societal health and well-being and our awareness of ocean function in a shifting climate. Substantial efforts are underway to realise a network of open-ocean observatories around European Seas that will operate over multiple decades. Some systems are already collecting high-resolution data from surface, water column, seafloor, and sub-seafloor sensors linked to shore by satellite or cable connection in real or near-real time, along with samples and other data collected in a delayed mode. We expect that such observatories will contribute to answering major ocean science questions including: How can monitoring of factors such as seismic activity, pore fluid chemistry and pressure, and gas hydrate stability improve seismic, slope failure, and tsunami warning? What aspects of physical oceanography, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystems will be most sensitive to climatic and anthropogenic change? What are natural versus anthropogenic changes? Most fundamentally, how are marine processes that occur at differing scales related? The development of ocean observatories provides a substantial opportunity for ocean science to evolve in Europe. Here we also describe some basic attributes of network design. Observatory networks provide the means to coordinate and integrate the collection of standardised data capable of bridging measurement scales across a dispersed area in European Seas adding needed certainty to estimates of future oceanic conditions. Observatory data can be analysed along with other data such as those from satellites, drifting floats, autonomous underwater vehicles, model analysis, and the known distribution and abundances of marine fauna in order to address some of the questions posed above. Standardised methods for information management are also becoming established to ensure better accessibility and traceability of these data sets and ultimately to increase their use for societal benefit. The connection of ocean observatory effort into larger frameworks including the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) and the Global Monitoring of Environment and Security (GMES) is integral to its success. It is in a greater integrated framework that the full potential of the component systems will be realised. Crown Copyright (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Progress In Oceanography (0079-6611) (Pergamon-elsevier Science Ltd), 2011-10 , Vol. 91 , N. 1 , P. 1-33

Droits : 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00044/15557/15923.pdf
DOI:10.1016/j.pocean.2011.05.001
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00044/15557/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD American Association for the Advancement of Science
Résumé :  
Amazon forests are a key but poorly understood component of the global carbon cycle. If, as anticipated, they dry this century, they might accelerate climate change through carbon losses and changed surface energy balances. We used records from multiple long-term monitoring plots across Amazonia to assess forest responses to the intense 2005 drought, a possible analog of future events. Affected forest lost biomass, reversing a large long-term carbon sink, with the greatest impacts observed where the dry season was unusually intense. Relative to pre-2005 conditions, forest subjected to a 100-millimeter increase in water deficit lost 5.3 megagrams of aboveground biomass of carbon per hectare. The drought had a total biomass carbon impact of 1.2 to 1.6 petagrams (1.2 × 1015 to 1.6 × 1015 grams). Amazon forests therefore appear vulnerable to increasing moisture stress, with the potential for large carbon losses to exert feedback on climate change.
ISSN: 0036-8075

hal-01032111
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01032111
DOI : 10.1126/science.1164033

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
Many countries are legally obliged to embrace ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management. Reductions in bycatch and physical habitat damage are now commonplace, but mitigating more sophisticated impacts associated with the ecological functions of target fisheries species are in their infancy. Here we model the impacts of a parrotfish fishery on the future state and resilience of Caribbean coral reefs, enabling us to view the tradeoff between harvest and ecosystem health. We find that the implementation of a simple and enforceable size restriction of >30 cm provides a win:win outcome in the short term, delivering both ecological and fisheries benefits and leading to increased yield and greater coral recovery rate for a given harvest rate. However, maintaining resilient coral reefs even until 2030 requires the addition of harvest limitations (<10% of virgin fishable biomass) to cope with a changing climate and induced coral disturbances, even in reefs that are relatively healthy today. Managing parrotfish is not a panacea for protecting coral reefs but can play a role in sustaining the health of reefs and high-quality habitat for reef fisheries.
http://hal.univ-reunion.fr/hal-01369752

hal-01369752
http://hal.univ-reunion.fr/hal-01369752
DOI : 10.1073/pnas.1601529113

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
In this work, we have led an analysis of the error of different global solar radiation prediction models according to the global solar radiation variability. Different predictions models where performed such as machine learning techniques (Neural Networks, Gaussian processes and support vector machines) in order to forecast the Global Horizontal solar Irradiance (GHI). We also include in this study a simple linear autoregressive (AR) model as well as two naive models based on persistence of the GHI and persistence of the clear sky index (denoted herein scaled persistence model). The models are calibrated and tested with data from three 3 French islands: Corsica (42.15°N ; 9.08°E), Guadeloupe (16.25°N ; 61.58°W) and Reunion (21.15°S ; 55.5°E). Guadeloupe and Reunion are located in a subtropical climatic zone whereas Corsica is in a tempered climatic zone. Hence the global solar radiation variation differs significantly. The output error of the different models was quantified by the nRSME. In order to quantify the influence of the global solar radiation variability on the forecasting models error we performed a classification of typical days according to different typical days. Each class of typical day is defined by a variation of global solar radiation rate. For each class and for each location, the selected forecasting models where performed and the error was quantified. With this analysis a global solar radiation forecasting models can be selected according to the location, the global solar radiation fluctuations and hence the meteorological conditions. INTRODUCTION Large and frequent variations of solar radiation can be observed in tropical climates with amplitudes reaching 800 W/m² and occurring within a short time interval, from few seconds to few minutes, according to the geographical location. Such fluctuations can be due for example to the dynamic of clouds which can be very complex and depend on cloud type, size, speed and spatial distribution and, more generally, due to some specific local meteorological conditions. Thus, the solar energy forecasting, a process used to predict the amount of solar energy available in the current and near terms, might be a difficult task. Some of the best predictors found in literature are Autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) [5,7,8], Bayesian inferences [9,10], Markov chains [11], k-Nearest-Neighbors predictors [12] or artificial intelligence techniques as the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) [9-11]. Although these methodologies are potentially good in many areas, we observed in our previous studies on global radiation prediction [9,13,14] that the simple model based on the persistence of the clear sky index gives often very good results with acceptable errors [15] for short term forecasting time horizon (<= 1 hour). The goal of this paper is to determinate the influence of solar radiation variability regarding different classes of days on the expected error provided by different forecasting methods that the modeller can possibly implement. The paper is organized as follow: Section 2 describes the data we have used. Section 3 exposes the classification methodology and the results obtained for the three studied locations. In the two following sections, the forecasting methods are exposed and then 3 the errors on the forecasting results for each location and for each class are exposed.
The Third Southern African Solar Energy Conference (SASEC2015)
Kruger National Park, South Africa

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
hal-01099487
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01099487
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01099487/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01099487/file/article%20SASEC.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Human Kinetics
Résumé : International audience
In order to study the acclimatization process over 14 days of exposure to tropical climate, 9 triathletes performed 4 outdoor indirect continuous multistage tests in both thermoneutral and tropical conditions. The thermoneutral test (TN, 14 C, 45% rh) was performed before traveling to the tropical area (Martinique, FWI). The tropical tests were performed 2, 8, and 14 days after arrival (32.9 C, 78% rh). During each trial, we measured tympanic temperature, sweat rate, body mass loss, heart rate (HR), and performance. The results showed that 1) the mean tympanic temperature was greater in T2 (P < .001), T8 (P < .01) and T14 (P < .01) than in TN and significantly lower in T14 than in T2 (P < .05); 2) the mean sweat rate was significantly greater (P < .001) in T2, T8 and T14 than in TN and significantly greater (P < .05) in T8 and T14 than in T2; 3) the body mass loss after trials was significantly greater (P < .001) in T2, T8 and T14 than in TN and significantly greater (P < .05) in T8 and T14 than in T2; 4) the mean HR and HR at rest were significantly higher (P < .005) in T2 than in TN, T8, T14 and the mean HR was significantly lower (P < .05) in T14 than in the other trials; and 5) the performance time was significantly lower in T2 (P < 0.02), T8 (P < 0.03) and T14 (P < 0.05) than in TN. We concluded that 14 days of exposure.
ISSN: 1066-7814

hal-00720075
https://hal.univ-antilles.fr/hal-00720075
https://hal.univ-antilles.fr/hal-00720075/document
https://hal.univ-antilles.fr/hal-00720075/file/02.Voltaire_551_.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD MDPI
Résumé : International audience
Satellite precipitation products are a means of estimating rainfall, particularly in areas that are sparsely equipped with rain gauges. The Guiana Shield is a region vulnerable to high water episodes. Flood risk is enhanced by the concentration of population living along the main rivers. A good understanding of the regional hydro-climatic regime, as well as an accurate estimation of precipitation is therefore of great importance. Unfortunately, there are very few rain gauges available in the region. The objective of the study is then to compare satellite rainfall estimation products in order to complement the information available in situ and to perform a regional analysis of four operational precipitation estimates, by partitioning the whole area under study into a homogeneous hydro-climatic region. In this study, four satellite products have been tested, TRMM TMPA (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis) V7 (Version 7) and RT (real time), CMORPH (Climate Prediction Center (CPC) MORPHing technique) and PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely-Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Network), for daily rain gauge data. Product performance is evaluated at daily and monthly scales based on various intensities and hydro-climatic regimes from 1 January 2001 to 30 December 2012 and using quantitative statistical criteria (coefficient correlation, bias, relative bias and root mean square error) and quantitative error metrics (probability of detection for rainy days and for no-rain days and the false alarm ratio). Over the entire study period, all products underestimate precipitation. The results obtained in terms of the hydro-climate show that for areas with intense convective precipitation, TMPA V7 shows a better performance than other products, especially in the estimation of extreme precipitation events. In regions along the Amazon, the use of PERSIANN is better. Finally, in the driest areas, TMPA V7 and PERSIANN show the same performance.
ISSN: 2072-4292

Droits : http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/licences/copyright/
hal-01257912
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01257912
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01257912/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01257912/file/remotesensing-07-15831.pdf
DOI : 10.3390/rs71215831

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD MDPI
Résumé : International audience
Objectives: We propose a novel approach to examine vulnerability in the relationship between heat and years of life lost and apply to neighborhood social disparities in Montreal and Paris. Methods: We used historical data from the summers of 1990 through 2007 for Montreal and from 2004 through 2009 for Paris to estimate daily years of life lost social disparities (DYLLD), summarizing social inequalities across groups. We used Generalized Linear Models to separately estimate relative risks (RR) for DYLLD in association with daily mean temperatures in both cities. We used 30 climate scenarios of daily mean temperature to estimate future temperature distributions (2021-2050). We performed random effect meta-analyses to assess the impact of climate change by climate scenario for each city and compared the impact of climate change for the two cities using a meta-regression analysis. Results: We show that an increase in ambient temperature leads to an increase in social disparities in daily years of life lost. The impact of climate change on DYLLD attributable to temperature was of 2.06 (95% CI: 1.90, 2.25) in Montreal and 1.77 (95% CI: 1.61, 1.94) in Paris. The city explained a difference of 0.31 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.49) on the impact of climate change. Conclusion: We propose a new analytical approach for estimating vulnerability in the relationship between heat and health. Our results suggest that in Paris and Montreal, health disparities related to heat impacts exist today and will increase in the future
ISSN: 1660-4601

hal-01207279
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01207279
DOI : 10.3390/ijerph120911869
PUBMED : 26402690

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : Tropical forests contain an important proportion of the carbon stored in terrestrial vegetation, but estimated aboveground biomass (AGB) in tropical forests varies two-fold, with little consensus on the relative importance of climate, soil and forest structure in explaining spatial patterns. Here, we present analyses from a plot network designed to examine differences among contrasting forest habitats (terra firme, seasonally flooded, and white-sand forests) that span the gradient of climate and soil conditions of the Amazon basin. We installed 0.5-ha plots in 74 sites representing the three lowland forest habitats in both Loreto, Peru and French Guiana, and we integrated data describing climate, soil physical and chemical characteristics and stand variables, including local measures of wood specific gravity (WSG). We use a hierarchical model to separate the contributions of stand variables from climate and soil variables in explaining spatial variation in AGB. AGB differed among both habitats and regions, varying from 78 Mg ha−1 in white-sand forest in Peru to 605 Mg ha−1 in terra firme clay forest of French Guiana. Stand variables including tree size and basal area, and to a lesser extent WSG, were strong predictors of spatial variation in AGB. In contrast, soil and climate variables explained little overall variation in AGB, though they did co-vary to a limited extent with stand parameters that explained AGB. Our results suggest that positive feedbacks in forest structure and turnover control AGB in Amazonian forests, with richer soils (Peruvian terra firme and all seasonally flooded habitats) supporting smaller trees with lower wood density and moderate soils (French Guianan terra firme) supporting many larger trees with high wood density. The weak direct relationships we observed between soil and climate variables and AGB suggest that the most appropriate approaches to landscape scale modeling of AGB in the Amazon would be based on remote sensing methods to map stand structure.
ISSN: 1354-1013

hal-01374829
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01374829
DOI : 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02432.x
PRODINRA : 183370

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Springer Verlag
Résumé : We aimed to enhance understanding of the molecular diversity of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) by building a new global dataset targeting previously unstudied geographical areas. In total, we sampled 96 plant species from 25 sites that encompassed all continents except Antarctica. AMF in plant roots were detected by sequencing the nuclear SSU rRNA gene fragment using either cloning followed by Sanger sequencing or 454-sequencing. A total of 204 AMF phylogroups (virtual taxa, VT) were recorded, increasing the described number of Glomeromycota VT from 308 to 341 globally. Novel VT were detected from 21 sites; three novel but nevertheless widespread VT (Glomus spp. MO-G52, MO-G53, MO-G57) were recorded from six continents. The largest increases in regional VT number were recorded in previously little-studied Oceania and in the boreal and polar climatic zones - this study providing the first molecular data from the latter. Ordination revealed differences in AM fungal communities between different continents and climatic zones, suggesting that both biogeographic history and environmental conditions underlie the global variation of those communities. Our results show that a considerable proportion of Glomeromycota diversity has been recorded in many regions, though further large increases in richness can be expected in remaining unstudied areas.
ISSN: 0940-6360

hal-01190520
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01190520
DOI : 10.1007/s00572-013-0482-2
PRODINRA : 206968

Résumé : En 2013, Le Groupe d'experts Intergouvernemental sur l'Evolution du Climat (GIEC) publie son cinquième rapport concernant les changements climatiques. Il y est souligné que le réchauffement climatique est sans équivoque, et que de nouvelles émissions de gaz à effet de serre impliqueront une poursuite du réchauffement et des changements affectant toutes les composantes du système climatique. En région tropicale, une hausse de la température, ainsi qu'une intensification des événements de sécheresse et de pluviométrie extrêmes sont à prévoir. C'est dans ce contexte que s'inscrit ce travail, dont le but est d'étudier la réponse de la forêt tropicale à ces changements climatiques prédits en Guyane Française. Pour ce faire, j'ai utilisé les données du dispositif de suivi forestier de Paracou pour construire un modèle de dynamique individuel basé sur les traits fonctionnels des arbres. Un modèle de mortalité a d'abord été réalisé puis couplé à un modèle de croissance.Le modèle couplé ainsi construit permet de modéliser la croissance et la mortalité des arbres sur un pas de temps de 2 ans tout en tenant compte de leur ontogénie et de leurs traits fonctionnels. Ce modèle a d'abord été appliqué aux essences commerciales de Guyane Française en forêt naturelle et exploitée en y ajoutant un indice de stress hydrique. Ceci permet de montrer que le stress hydrique fait baisser la croissance et augmenter la mortalité, tandis que l'exploitation a l'effet inverse. Malgré le signal commun, différentes réponses sont observées selon les espèces. Le modèle a ensuite été appliqué à la communauté en forêt naturelle pour identifier les drivers climatiques et les processus impactés. Il ressort que la croissance est impactée par le stress hydrique et la température, et que la mortalité est impactée par le stress hydrique et la pluviométrie totale.Ces résultats ont enfin permis de construire un modèle complet de dynamique forestière climat dépendant, et de simuler l'évolution d'une communauté pendant un siècle selon différents scénarios correspondant aux prédictions du GIEC. Les simulations mettent en évidence une très forte diminution de la croissance, ainsi qu'une plus faible diminution de la mortalité. Ceci entraine une diminution notable de la surface terrière, du diamètre quadratique et de la biomasse fraiche. Une analyse de sensibilité montre que ces changements sont principalement dus à l'augmentation sévère des températures prédites pour le siècle à venir. Des pistes de réflexion sur les enjeux de modélisation et les échelles considérées sont proposées en discussion de ce travail.
In 2013 the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) publishes its fifth report. This report underlines that an increase of temperature and a strengthening of drought and extreme rainfall are expected in tropical regions. This work was made in this context of climate changes, and aimed to study the response of the rainforest to predicted climate changes. To do this, i used the data from the study site of Paracou French Guiana to build an individual based dynamics model based on the functional traits of trees. This model was first applied to species with a commercial interest in French Guiana, in natural and logged forest and adding a water stress index as predictor. Water stress decreases growth and increases mortality, while logging had the opposite effect. The model was then applied to the community in natural forest for identifying potential climate drivers and impacted processes. Growth is impacted by the water stress and temperature and mortality is imp acted by the water stress and the total rainfall. These results allowed us to build a climate dependent model of forest dynamics and to run simulations of the evolution of a community under different scenarios for the next century. Simulations showed a decrease of growth and a small decrease of mortality. This resulted in a substantial decrease of basal area, squared diameter and fresh biomass.

http://www.theses.fr/2014AGUY0802/document

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD BioMed Central
Résumé : International audience
ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Climate change poses unprecedented challenges, ranging from global and local policy challenges to personal and social action. Heat-related deaths are largely preventable, but interventions for the most vulnerable populations need improvement. Therefore, the prior identification of high risk areas at the community level is required to better inform planning and prevention. We aimed to demonstrate a simple and flexible conceptual framework relying upon satellite thermal data and other digital data with the goal of easily reproducing this framework in a variety of urban configurations. RESULTS: The study area encompasses Rennes, a medium-sized French city. A Landsat ETM + image (60 m resolution) acquired during a localized heatwave (June 2001) was used to estimate land surface temperature (LST) and derive a hazard index. A land-use regression model was performed to predict the LST. Vulnerability was assessed through census data describing four dimensions (socio-economic status, extreme age, population density and building obsolescence). Then, hazard and vulnerability indices were combined to deliver a heatwave health risk index. The LST patterns were quite heterogeneous, reflecting the land cover mosaic inside the city boundary, with hotspots of elevated temperature mainly observed in the city center. A spatial error regression model was highly predictive of the spatial variation in the LST (R2 = 0.87) and was parsimonious. Three land cover descriptors (NDVI, vegetation and water fractions) were negatively linked with the LST. A sensitivity analysis (based on an image acquired on July 2000) yielded similar results. Southern areas exhibited the most vulnerability, although some pockets of higher vulnerability were observed northeast and west of the city. The heatwave health risk map showed evidence of infra-city spatial clustering, with the highest risks observed in a north--south central band. Another sensitivity analysis gave a very high correlation between 2000 and 2001 risk indices (r = 0.98, p < 10-12). CONCLUSIONS: Building on previous work, we developed a reproducible method that can provide guidance for local planners in developing more efficient climate impact adaptations. We recommend, however, using the health risk index together with hazard and vulnerability indices to implement tailored programs because exposure to heat and vulnerability do not require the same prevention strategies.
ISSN: 1476-072X

inserm-00762303
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00762303
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00762303/document
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00762303/file/1476-072X-11-38.pdf
DOI : 10.1186/1476-072X-11-38

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
Understanding long-term variability in the frequency of intense storm activity is important for assessing whether changes are controlled by climate evolution. Understanding this variability is also important for predicting present and future community vulnerability and economic loss. Our ability to make these assessments has been limited by the short (less than 50 years) instrument record of storm activity. Storm-induced deposits preserved in the sediments of coastal lagoons offer the opportunity to study the links between climatic conditions and storm activity on longer timescales. In this study, we present a record of these extreme climatic events that have occurred in the French Mediterrannean coast over the past 1500 years. The identification of these extreme events is based on the analysis of sediment cores from Gulf of Aigues-Mortes lagoons that contain a specific sedimentary and geochemical signature associated with intense storms.;Overwash deposits do not show any evidence of intense storm landfalls in the region for several hundred years prior to the late 17th century A.D. The apparent increase in intense storms around 250 years ago occurs during the latter half of the Little Ice Age, a time of lower continental surface temperatures. Comparison of the sediment record with palaeoclimate records indicates that this variability was probably modulated by atmospheric dynamics. The apparent increase of the superstorm activity during the latter half of the Little Ice Age was probably due to the thermal gradient increase leading to enhanced lower tropospheric baroclinicity over a large Central Atlantic/European domain and leading to a modification of the occurrence of extreme wind events along the French Mediterranean coast. A complete understanding of the relationship between climate fluctuations, storm activity, and the coastal response will be crucial to predicting the impacts of future climate change.
ISSN: 0031-0182

hal-00617525
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00617525
DOI : 10.1016/j.palaeo.2010.11.009

Éditeur(s) : Oxford university press
Résumé : The eastern Baltic cod stock collapsed as a consequence of climate-driven adverse hydrographic conditions and over fishing and has remained at historically low levels. Spatio-temporal fishing closures [Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)] have been implemented since 1995, to protect and restore the spawning stock. However, no signs of recovery have been observed yet, either suggesting that MPAs are an inappropriate management measure or pointing towards suboptimal closure design. We used the spatially explicit fishery simulation model ISIS-Fish to evaluate proposed and implemented fishery closures, combining an age-structured population module with a multifleet exploitation module and a management module in a single model environment. The model is parameterized based on (i) the large amount of biological knowledge available for cod and (ii) an analysis of existing spatially disaggregated fishery data. As the population dynamics of eastern Baltic cod depend strongly on the climate-driven hydrographic regime, we considered two production regimes of the stock. MPAs were only effective for stock recovery when they reduced overall fishing effort. The performance of MPAs needs to be evaluated relative to environmental regimes, especially for stocks facing strong environmental variability.
ICES Journal of Marine Science (1054-3139) (Oxford university press), 2009 , Vol. 66 , N. 1 , P. 109-121

Droits : 2008 ICES/CIEM
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2009/publication-6094.pdf
DOI:10.1093/icesjms/fsn166
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/6094/