Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Ecological Society of America
Résumé : Although niche-based and stochastic processes, including dispersal limitation and demographic stochasticity, can each contribute to community assembly, it is difficult to quantify the relative importance of each process in natural vegetation. Here, we extend Shipley's maxent model (Community Assembly by Trait Selection, CATS) for the prediction of relative abundances to incorporate both trait-based filtering and dispersal limitation from the larger landscape and develop a statistical decomposition of the proportions of the total information content of relative abundances in local communities that are attributable to trait-based filtering, dispersal limitation, and demographic stochasticity. We apply the method to tree communities in a mature, species-rich, tropical forest in French Guiana at 1-, 0.25- and 0.04-ha scales. Trait data consisted of species' means of 17 functional traits measured over both the entire meta-community and separately in each of nine 1-ha plots. Trait means calculated separately for each site always gave better predictions. There was clear evidence of trait-based filtering at all spatial scales. Trait-based filtering was the most important process at the 1-ha scale (34%), whereas demographic stochasticity was the most important at smaller scales (37-53%). Dispersal limitation from the meta-community was less important and approximately constant across scales (similar to 9%), and there was also an unresolved association between site-specific traits and meta-community relative abundances. Our method allows one to quantify the relative importance of local niche-based and meta-community processes and demographic stochasticity during community assembly across spatial and temporal scales.
ISSN: 0012-9658

hal-01032424
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01032424

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : 20 pp
We first analyze some atmospheric parameters measured in 2004 at the top of La Soufrière volcano: wind speed, pressure and temperature. Next, we study the stochastic process of the wind speed modulus which is of interest for prediction of pollution induced by the plume. We fit to the data various models : FARIMA, periodic trend plus multifractional Brownian noise, multifractal continuous cascades. The estimations show that they evoluate during some transition phases in response to environment changes. Thus, we finally suggest, for future works, some settings that should be more appropriate: time series with regime changes and stochastic processes in random environment.
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00165572

hal-00165572
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00165572
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00165572/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00165572/file/Windsouf_v11.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : 15 pages
A Stochastic Differential Equation appearing in the statistical theory of turbulence is extended in random environment by assuming that its two parameters are switched by an unobserved continuoustime Markov chain whose states represent the states of the environment. A Dirichlet process is placed as a prior on the space of the sample paths of this chain, leading to a hierarchical Dirichlet model whose estimation is done both on simulated data and on real data of wind speed measured at the entrance of a mangrove ecosystem.
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00455050

hal-00455050
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00455050
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00455050/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00455050/file/CSDA06_Srik_Hal.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : 27 pages
Cascade Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE), a continuous time model for energy dissipation in turbulence, is a generalization of the Yaglom discrete cascade model. We extend this SDE to a model in random environment by assuming that its two parameters are switched by a continuous time Markov chain whose states represent the states of the environment. Moreover, a Dirichlet process is placed as a prior on the space of sample paths of this chain. We propose a Bayesian estimation method of this model which is tested both on simulated data and on real data of wind speed measured at the entrance of the mangrove ecosystem in Guadeloupe.
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00286131

hal-00286131
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00286131
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00286131/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00286131/file/Srik11_PhysicaDDspace.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
Predicting the impact of underground engineering on the environment requires the knowledge of natural media at different scales. In particular, understanding basic phenomena controlling the properties of rocks in the presence of complex fluids necessitates a detailed atomic description of the solid/fluid/solid contacts, the subject of Part I of the present study. First, building the solid interspace between two different crystals in a non-periodic situation is achieved using the ab initio and molecular mechanics code GenMol (TM). A description of the fluid confined within the interspace is then derived from the original genetic iterative multi-species (GIMS) algorithm implemented in the same code. This approach consists of equilibrating chemical potentials, cycle after cycle and species after species, between the confined fluid and the free natural fluid. An elementary iteration for a species k consists of different steps incrementing the number N-k of particles k, with other numbers N-k remaining constant. At each step, an optimum fluid composition is obtained by a genetic process distributing the fluid particles on a grid by stochastic shots, followed in fine by a refining process. The effectiveness of the GIMS approach is demonstrated in the case study of a fluid confined between two (0 0 1) kaolinite faces, with apertures h varying between 4 and 10 A. connected to a 9-species external solution [H2O, Cl-, Na+ CO2(aq), NaCl(aq), Ca2+, Mg2+, HCO3-, H3O+] where concentrations are ranging from 55 to 10(-4) mol/L. The results show a drastic variation in the solute/solvent and cations/ions ratios in the confined fluid when aperture h is lowered to less than 1 nm. These results obtained with a very rapid convergence of the iterative algorithm combined with a very competitive genetic optimizer are validated with high precision on a free solution. This description of contacts between crystals is original and unattainable by standard crystal interface approaches. It opens the way to understanding and/or predicting phenomena between crystals in a complex natural environment, such as adhesion or repulsion investigated in the Part II of this study.
ISSN: 0022-0248

hal-00544569
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00544569
DOI : 10.1016/j.jcrysgro.2010.08.009

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : Point processes are often used as spatial or spatio-temporal distribution models of occurrences. In this PhD dissertation, we focus first on Cox processes driven by a hidden process associated with a Dirichlet process. This model corresponds to hidden occurrences influencing the stochastic intensity of observed occurrences. We generalize the notion of "Shot noise Cox process" introduced by M{o}ller and develop its bayesian analysis by a Gibbs sampler combined with a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. We show that our MCMC method is a reversible jump one. The model takes into account a random number of hidden contributions producing effects on the observed point process intensity. Therefore the parameter space has a variable dimension. We focus the statistical inference on the estimation of the hidden contribution expected value, the hidden contribution expected number, the spatial influence and correlation parameters. The contribution equality test and contribution independence test are proposed. Applications in epidemiology and ecology are shown from extit{Rubus fruticosa} data, extit{Ibicella lutea} data and death number data in counties of Georgia, USA. Two situations are considered with respect to available data~: firstly, the spatial positions of occurrences are observed between several pairs of consecutive dates; secondly, counts are carried out over a fixed time interval in several spatial sampling units. Secondly, we focus on point processes with memory introduced by Kagan, Ogata and Vere-Jones, pioneers in statistical seismology. In fact, spatio-temporal point processes play an important role in the studies of earthquake catalogs since they consist of seismic events with their dates and spatial locations. We studied an ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence) model with time independent background intensity and several triggering functions taking into account previous events. We illustrate our approach with a seismicity study of the Lesser Antilles arc. A comparaison study of Gamma, Weibull, Log-Normal and modified Omori law triggering function models is also carried out. We show that the modified Omori law does not fit the Lesser Antilles seismic data and the best adjusted triggering function is the Weibull model. Consequently, the waiting time between aftershocks is weaker in the Lesser Antilles zone compared to the one in regions with seismicity described by the modified Omori law. In other words, aftershock aggregativity is higher in the Lesser Antilles region. The stochastic background intensity following a Dirichlet process centered on a spatial log-normal process is discussed.
Les processus ponctuels sont souvent utilisés comme modèles de répartitions spatiales ou spatio-temporelles d'occurrences. Dans cette thèse, nous nous intéressons tout d'abord à des processus de Cox dirigés par un processus caché associé à un processus de Dirichlet. Ce modèle correspond à des occurrences cachées influençant l'intensité stochastique des occurrences observées. Nous généralisons la notion de " Shot noise Cox process " introduite par Moller et développons le traitement bayésien par un échantillonneur de Gibbs combiné à un algorithme de Metropolis-Hastings. Nous montrons que cette méthode MCMC est à sauts réversibles. Le modèle prend en compte, en effet, un nombre aléatoire de contributions cachées influençant l'intensité du processus ponctuel observé donc a un espace paramétrique de dimension variable. Nous focalisons l'inférence statistique sur l'estimation de la valeur espérée de chaque contribution cachée, le nombre espéré de contributions cachées, le degré d'influence spatiale de ces contributions et leur degré de corrélation. Le test d'égalité des contributions et celui de leur indépendance sont ainsi développés. L'utilité en épidémiologie et en écologie est alors démontrée à partir de données de Rubus fruticosa, Ibicella lutea et de mortalité dans les cantons de Georgia, USA. En termes de données observées, deux situations sont considérées: premièrement, les positions spatiales des occurrences sont observées entre plusieurs paires de dates consécutives; deuxièmement, des comptages sont effectués, au cours d'une période fixée, dans des unités d'échantillonnage spatiales. D'autre part, nous nous intéressons aux processus ponctuels à mémoire introduits par Kagan, Ogata et Vere-Jones, précurseurs de la statistique sismologique. En effet, les processus ponctuels spatio-temporels ont une place importante dans l'étude des catalogues sismiques puisque ces derniers sont généralement constitués d'événements sismiques datés et géo-référencés. Nous avons étudié un modèle ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence) avec une intensité d'arrière-plan indépendante du temps et plusieurs fonctions déclenchantes permettant d'intégrer les événements antérieurs récents. Cette approche est utilisée pour étudier la sismicité de l'arc des Petites Antilles. Une étude comparative des modèles Gamma, Weibull, Log-Normal et loi d'Omori modifiée pour les fonctions déclenchantes est menée. Nous montrons que la loi d'Omori modifiée ne s'ajuste pas aux données sismiques des Petites Antilles et la fonction déclenchante la plus adaptée est le modèle de Weibull. Cela implique que le temps d'attente entre répliques dans la zone des Petites Antilles est plus faible que celui des régions à sismicité décrite par la loi d'Omori modifiée. Autrement dit, l'agrégation des répliques après un événement majeur est plus prononcée dans la zone des Petites Antilles. La possibilité d'inclure une intensité d'arrière-plan suivant un processus de Dirichlet centré sur un processus spatial log-gaussien est discutée.
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00841146

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
NNT : 2012AGUY0555
tel-00841146
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00841146
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00841146/document
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00841146/file/these_VALMY.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Springer Verlag (Germany) Springer Verlag
Résumé : Production rates in horizontal shale gas wells display declines that are controlled by the low permeability and the intrinsic heterogeneity of the shale matrix. We present an original multi-continuum approach that yields a physical model able to reproduce the complexity of the decreasing gas rates. The model describes the dynamics of gas rate as function of the physical reservoir parameters and geometry, while the shale matrix heterogeneity is accounted for by a stochastic description of transmissivity field. From the 3D (Dimensional) problem setting, including the heterogeneous shale matrix, the fractures generated by the hydrofracking operations, as well as the production well characteristics, we establish an effective upscaled 1D model for the gas pressures in fracture and matrix as well as the volumetric flux. We analyse the decline curves behaviour, and we identify the time scales that characterize the dynamics of the gas rate decline using explicit analytical Laplace space solutions of the upscaled process model. Asymptotically, the flux curves decrease exponentially, while in an intermediate regime we find a power-law behaviour, in which the flux scales with a power law in time as (t^{-beta }), where (beta ) reflects the medium heterogeneity. We use this solution to fit a set of real data displaying distinctly different decline trends and study the sensitivity of the model to the reservoir parameters in order to identify their respective controls at the different stages of the decline curve dynamics. Results indicate that the initial value of the gas rate is determined by the transmissivity of the fractures and the initial pressure of the gas in the shale matrix. The latter causes mainly a shift in the entire decline curve. The early time of decline curve shape is primarily controlled by the fracture properties (compressibility and transmissivity). During the main part of the economically valuable production times, i.e. before the production rate drops exponentially, the decline curve is strongly controlled by the properties of the shale rocks including their heterogeneity, which is modelled by two parameters describing the non-Fickian pressure diffusion effects in a stochastic framework.
ISSN: 0169-3913

hal-01217247
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01217247
DOI : 10.1007/s11242-015-0504-y

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
The objectives are to study and model the aggregate wind power fluctuations dynamics in the multifractal framework. We present here the analysis of aggregate power output sampled at 1 Hz during three years. We decompose the data into several Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMF) using Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). We use a new approach, arbitrary order Hilbert spectral analysis, a combination of EMD approach with Hilbert spectral analysis (or Hilbert Huang Transform) and the classical structure function analysis to extract the scaling exponents or multifractal spectrum $zeta(q)$: this function provides a full characterization of a process at all intensities and all scales. The application of both methods, i.e. structure function and arbitrary-order Hilbert spectral analyses, give similar results indicating that the aggregate power output from a wind farm, possesses intermittent and multifractal properties. In order to check this result, we generate stochastic simulations of a Multifractal Random Walk (MRW) using a log-normal stochastic equation. We show that the simulation results are fully compatible with the experimental results.
Physica A

hal-01527887
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01527887
DOI : 10.1016/j.physa.2013.04.038

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
We are interested in the e ect of some types of events on dispersion indexes such as the mean crowding. From a mathematical point of view, we consider that a distribution of individuals is a realization of a point process and we study the consequences of a stochastic point thinning on the model distributional properties. A case study is provided from counting of aphids of the cotton plant carried out before and after thunderstorm. The mortality rate due to the thunderstorm is analyzed according to characteristics of thunderstorms, leaf strata and larvae stages.
SSC Meeting

hal-00684234
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00684234

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
Joint inversions are now commonly used in the earth sciences. They have been developed to better understand the structure of the earth, since they provide more constraints on the inverted parameters. We propose a new process to simultaneously invert several data sets in order to better image 3D crustal and upper mantle structures. Our inversion uses three kinds of data that present good complementarity: (1) P-wave receiver functions to provide Moho depth variations, (2) teleseismic delay times of P-waves to retrieve velocity anomalies in the crust and the upper mantle, and (3) gravity anomalies to image density variations at the lithospheric scale. We use a stochastic scheme, where receiver functions are first inverted. The interpolated resulting Moho depths are incorporated as a priori information into the joint inversion of teleseismic delay times and gravity anomalies process. Moreover, velocity and density can be linked by empirical relationships, which justifies the joint inversion of those parameters. In our stochastic approach, we perform a model space search for Moho variations, P-velocity, and density structure to find an acceptable fit to the three data sets. In order to preferentially sample the good data fit regions, we chose the neighborhood algorithm of Sambridge to optimistically survey the model space. We model the delay times with 3D raytracing using evenly spaced velocity-density nodes. We present here the first results given by this method on synthetic tests. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
ISSN: 0098-3004

hal-00643158
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00643158
DOI : 10.1016/j.cageo.2010.11.017

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Intech
Résumé : International audience
The massive integration of sustainable energies into electrical grids (non-interconnectedor connected) is a major problem due to their stochastic character revealed by strongfluctuations at all scales. In this paper, the scaling behaviour or power law correlationsand the nature of scaling behaviour of sustainable resource data such as flow velocity,atmospheric wind speed, solar global solar radiation and sustainable energy such as,wind power output, are highlighted. For the first time, Fourier power spectral densitiesare estimated for each dataset. We show that the power spectrum densities obtained areclose to the 5/3 Kolmogorov spectrum. Furthermore, the multifractal and intermittentproperties of sustainable resource and energy data have been revealed by the concavityof the scaling exponent function. The proposed analysis frame allows a full descriptionof fluctuations of processes considered. A good knowledge of the dynamic of fluctua-tions is crucial to management of the integration of sustainable energies into a grid.
Sustainable Energy - Technological Issues, Applications and Case Studies

hal-01528087
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01528087
DOI : 10.5772/106341

Éditeur(s) : Wiley-blackwell
Résumé : 1. Approximately 300 pelagic fish species naturally aggregate around floating objects (FOBs) at the surface of the oceans. Currently, more than 50% of the world catch of tropical tuna comes from the industrial tuna fisheries around drifting FOBs. Greater understanding of the complex decision-making processes leading to this aggregation pattern and the impact of the massive release of artificial FOBs by fishermen on the spatial distribution and management of tuna is needed. 2. We analyse how the interplay between social (relationships between individuals) and non-social (responses to the environment) behaviours may affect the spatial distribution of a population in a multi-FOB environment. Taking the example of tropical tunas associating with FOBs and using differential equations and stochastic simulations, we examine how, when increasing the number of FOBs, fish aggregation dynamics and the distribution of the population among patches are affected by the population size, level of sociality and the natural retentive and/or attractive forces of FOBs on individual tuna. 3. Our model predicts that, depending on the species' level of sociality, fish will be scattered among FOBs or aggregated around a single FOB based on the number of FOBs deployed in a homogeneous oceanic region. 4. For social species, we demonstrated that the total fish catch is reduced with increasing FOBs number. Indeed, for each size of population, there are a number of FOBs minimizing the total population of fish associated with FOBs and another number of FOBs maximizing the total population of associated fish. 5. Synthesis and applications. In terms of fisheries management, the total catch volume is directly linked to the total number of floating objects (FOBs) for non-social species, and any limit on the number of sets would then result in a limit on the total catch. For social species (e.g. tuna), however, increasing the number of FOBs does not necessarily lead to an increase in the total catch, which is a non-intuitive result. Indeed, our model shows that, for specific values of the parameters, deploying a greater number of FOBs in the water (all other parameters being constant) does not necessarily help fishermen to catch more tuna, but does increase the level of fishing effort and bycatch.
Journal Of Applied Ecology (0021-8901) (Wiley-blackwell), 2013-10 , Vol. 50 , N. 5 , P. 1081-1092

Droits : 2013 The Authors. Journal of Applied Ecology, 2013 British Ecological Society
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00151/26275/24439.pdf
DOI:10.1111/1365-2664.12140
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00151/26275/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Springer
Résumé : The analysis of gamma ray measurements provides valuable information about the basement's lithospherical model and the radioactive elements contained in the subsurface. To be exploited, the raw data need pre-processing operations which consist of corrections of the Compton effect, altimetry and the aircraft background, and 2D interpolations. These transformations may modify the data's stochastic component which reflects heterogeneities of the investigated medium. In this study, a fractal analysis is carried out on airborne gamma ray data measured in the Hoggar's area (Algeria). First, it is shown that the analyzed data exhibit fractal properties. Due to the dependence of the latter on the spatial location of the measures, the data can be considered as paths of multifractional Brownian motions. Another result worth noting is that the fractal nature of the raw data is not modified by the pre-processing operations. The fractal analysis can be then performed on the raw spectrometric measurements without submitting them to any pre-processing; thus, the stochastic component of the measurements is kept intact.
ISSN: 1866-7411

hal-00817494
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00817494
DOI : 10.1007/s12517-011-0407-3

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
The objectives are to study and model the aggregate wind power fluctuations dynamics in the multifractal framework. We present here the analysis of aggregate power output sampled at 1 Hz during three years. We decompose the data into several Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) using Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). We use a new approach, arbitrary order Hilbert spectral analysis, a combination of the EMD approach with Hilbert spectral analysis (or Hilbert-Huang Transform) and the classical structure-function analysis to extract the scaling exponents or multifractal spectrum ζ(q)ζ(q): this function provides a full characterization of a process at all intensities and all scales. The application of both methods, i.e. structure-function and arbitrary-order Hilbert spectral analyses, gives similar results indicating that the aggregate power output from a wind farm, possesses intermittent and multifractal properties. In order to check this result, we generate stochastic simulations of a Multifractal Random Walk (MRW) using a log-normal stochastic equation. We show that the simulation results are fully compatible with the experimental results
Physica A

hal-00846643
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00846643
DOI : 10.1016/j.physa.2013.04.038

Éditeur(s) : University of Tasmania, Université de Bretagne Occidentale
Résumé : Empirical evidence and the theoretical literature both point to stock sustainability and the protection of marine biodiversity as important fisheries management issues. Decision-support tools are increasingly required to operationalize the ecosystem-based approach to fisheries management. These tools need to integrate (i) ecological and socio-economic drivers of changes in fisheries and ecosystems; (ii) complex dynamics; (iii) deal with various sources of uncertainty; and (iv) incorporate multiple, rather than single objectives. The stochastic co-viability approach addresses the trade-offs associated with balancing ecological, economic and social objectives throughout time, and takes into account the complexity and uncertainty of the dynamic interactions which characterize exploited ecosystems and biodiversity. This thesis proposes an application of this co-viability approach to the sustainable management of mixed fisheries, using two contrasting case studies: the French Bay of Biscay (BoB) demersal mixed fishery and the Australian Northern Prawn Fishery (NPF). Both fisheries entail direct and indirect impacts on mixed species communities while also generating large economic returns. Their sustainability is therefore a major societal concern. A dynamic bio-economic modelling approach is used to capture the key biological and economic processes governing these fisheries, combining age- (BoB) or size- (NPF) structured models of multiple species with recruitment uncertainty, and multiple fleets (BoB) or fishing strategies (NPF). Economic uncertainties relating to input and output prices are also considered. The bioeconomic models are used to investigate how the fisheries can operate within a set of constraints relating to the preservation of Spawning Stock Biomasses (BoB) or Spawning Stock Size Indices (NPF) of a set of key target species, maintenance of the economic profitability of various fleets (BoB) or the fishery as a whole (NPF), and limitation of fishing impacts on the broader biodiversity (NPF), under a range of alternative scenarios and management strategies. Results suggest that under a status quo strategy both fisheries can be considered as biologically sustainable, while socio-economically (and ecologically in the NPF case) at risk. Despite very different management contexts and objectives, viable management strategies suggest a reduction in the number of vessels in both cases. The BoB simulations allow comparison of the trade-offs associated with different allocations of this decrease across fleets. Notably, co-viability management strategies entail a more equitable allocation of effort reductions compared to strategies aiming at maximizing economic yield. In the NPF, species catch diversification strategies are shown to perform well in controlling the levels of economic risk, by contrast with more specialized fishing strategies. Furthermore analyses emphasize the importance to the fishing industry of balancing global economic performance with inter-annual economic variability. Promising future developments based on this research involve the incorporation of a broader set of objectives including social dimensions, as well as the integration of ecological interactions, to better address the needs of ecosystem-based approaches to the sustainable harvesting of marine biodiversity.
L’objectif général de la thèse est de modéliser les principaux processus biologiques et économiques régissant des pêcheries multi-espèces et multi-flottilles afin de proposer des stratégies viables pour la gestion durable de ces pêcheries mixtes, dans un contexte stochastique et multiobjectif. Plus spécifiquement, cette thèse utilise des analyses de co-viabilité stochastique pour étudier les arbitrages entre des objectifs contradictoires de gestion (conservation, et viabilité économique et sociale) des pêcheries mixtes. Deux pêcheries mixtes sont analysées dans cette thèse: la pêcherie française mixte démersale du golfe de Gascogne et la pêcherie crevettière australienne du Nord (NPF). Ces deux pêcheries sont multi-espèces, et utilisent des stratégies multiples de pêche, induisant des impacts directs et indirects sur les écosystèmes. Cette thèse propose une application de la co-viabilité stochastique à ces deux cas, en prenant en compte leur histoire, leur contexte socio-politique et les différences dans les stratégies et objectifs de gestion. Les résultats suggèrent que le status quo peut être considéré comme une stratégie biologiquement durable mais socio économiquement à risque dans les deux pêcheries (ainsi qu’à risque écologique dans le cas de la pêcherie australienne). Les simulations réalisées pour le golfe de Gascogne permettent de comparer les arbitrages associés à différentes réductions de capacités par flottille et de montrer qu’il existe des solutions de gestion permettant la co-viabilité du système (viabilité biologique des différentes espèces considérées et viabilité socio-économique des flottilles) contrairement à des stratégies de gestion mono-spécifiques ou basées sur la maximisation de la rente. Dans la pêcherie crevettière australienne, l’analyse montre que les stratégies de diversification permettent de limiter le risque économique contrairement aux stratégies plus spécialisées.

Droits : UBO, Univ. Tasmania
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00206/31731/30134.pdf
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00206/31731/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
In the analysis of coastal hazards, the features of extreme waves are determining information to question the impact of storms to the coast. The spatial behaviour of extreme waves is even more valuable especially since it is sparsely provided. Regarding recent applications in other contexts, a kind of statistical models called max-stable processes is relevant for modelling spatial extreme events. Max-stable processes are extensions of the well-known Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Unlike univariate approaches, max-stable processes consider spatial dependence of a phenomenon. Such a modelling also overtakes a standard multivariate approach by providing information continuously over the area studied, even where no observation is available. Relying on such a stochastic modelling, the aim of this study is to discuss the extreme waves hazards in the Gulf of Lions, focusing on their spatial behaviour.
34th Conference on Coastal Engineering
Seoul, South Korea

lirmm-01382568
https://hal-lirmm.ccsd.cnrs.fr/lirmm-01382568
https://hal-lirmm.ccsd.cnrs.fr/lirmm-01382568/document
https://hal-lirmm.ccsd.cnrs.fr/lirmm-01382568/file/7553-31212-1-PB.pdf
DOI : 10.9753/icce.v34.management.17

Résumé : Les processus ponctuels sont souvent utilisés comme modèles de répartitions spatiales ou spatio-temporelles d'occurrences Dans cette thèse, nous nous intéressons à des processus de Cox dirigés par un processus caché associé à un processus de Dirichlet. Ce modèle correspond à des occurrences cachées influençant l'intensité stochastique des occurrences observées. Nous généralisons la notion de Shot noise Cox process et développons le traitement bayésien. Nous focalisons l'inférence statistique sur l'estimation de la valeur espérée de chaque contribution cachée, leur nombre espéré, degré d'influence spatiale et degré de corrélation L'utilité en épidémiologie et en écologie est démontrée à partir de données de Rubus fruticosa, lbicella lutea et de mortalité dans les cantons de Georgie, USA. En termes de données observées, deux situations sont considérées: d'abord, les positions spatiales des occurrences sont observées entre plusieurs paires de dates consécutives; puis, des comptages sont effectués dans des unités d'échantillonnage spatiales. D'autre part, nous nous intéressons aux processus ponctuels à mémoire introduits par Kagan, Ogata et Vere-Jones. En effet, les processus ponctuels ont une place importante dans l'étude des catalogues sismiques. Nous avons étudié un modèle Epidemie Type Aftershock Sequence avec une intensité d'arrière-plan indépendante du temps et plusieurs fonctions déclenchantes permettant d'intégrer les événements antérieurs récents. Cette approche est utilisée pour étudier la sismicité des Petites Antilles. Une étude comparative des modèles Gamma, Weibull, Log-Normal et loi d'Omori modifiée pour les fonctions déclenchantes est menée.
Point processes are often used as spatial or spatio-temporal distribution models of occurrences. In this Phd dissertation, we focus first on Cox processes driven by a hidden process associated with a Dirichlet process. This model corresponds to hidden occurrences influencing the stochastic intensity of observed occurrences. We generalize the notion of Shot noise Cox process and develop its bayesian analysis. We focus the statistical inference on the estimation of the hidden contribution expected value, the hidden contribution expected number, the spatial influence and correlation parameters. Applications in epidemiology and ecology are shown from Rubus fruticosa data, Ibicella lutea data and death number data in counties of Georgia, USA. Two situations are considered with respect to available data: firstly, the spatial positions of occurrences are observed between several pairs of consecutive dates; secondly, counts are carried out over a fixed time interval in several spatial sampling units. Secondly, we focus on point processes with memory intr oduced by Kagan, Ogata and Vere-Jones. Spatio-temporal point processes play an important role in the studies of earthquake catalogs since they consist of seismic events with their dates and spatial locations. We studied an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model with time independent background intensity and several triggering functions taking into account previous events. We illustrate our approach with a seismicity study of the Lesser Antilles arc. A comparaison study of Gamma, Weibull, Log-Normal and modified Omori law triggering function models is also carried out

http://www.theses.fr/2012AGUY0555/document

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Résumé : International audience
Tailoring nearest neighbors algorithms to boosting is an important problem. Recent papers study an approach, UNN, which provably minimizes particular convex surrogates under weak assumptions. However, numerical issues make it necessary to experimentally tweak parts of the UNN algorithm, at the possible expense of the algorithm's convergence and performance. In this paper, we propose a lightweight alternative algorithm optimizing proper scoring rules from a very broad set, and establish formal convergence rates under the boosting framework that surprisingly compete with those known for UNN. It is an adaptive Newton-Raphson algorithm, which belongs to the same lineage as the popular Gentle Adaboost. To the best of our knowledge, no such boosting-compliant convergence rates were previously known for these algorithms. We provide experiments on a dozen domains, including the challenging Caltech and SUN computer vision databases. They display that GNNB significantly outperforms UNN, both in terms of convergence rate and quality of the solution obtained, and GNNB provides a simple and efficient contender to techniques that can be used on very large domains, like stochastic gradient descent -- for which little is known to date. Experiments include a divide-and-conquer improvement of GNNB which exploits the link with proper scoring rules optimization.
ISSN: 0162-8828

hal-00958809
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00958809
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00958809/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00958809/file/PAMI.pdf
DOI : 10.1109/TPAMI.2014.2307877

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : Among erosion processes, river incision is classicaly described as a key process controlling erosion of landscapes. Incision efficiency is mainly influenced by climate and erodibility. This latter is not only dependent on the nature of the bedrock, but also on its past deformation, which affects its rheological effective properties, such as fracture density. The main objectives of this thesis are: (1) to better constrain the relationship between effective properties and erodibility, and (2) to quantify the influence of erodibility and erosion on both the temporal and spatial building or decay of the topography. Several numerical tools are developed. A 1D formalism of landscape evolution is introduced, including river incision with stochastic distribution of water discharge and hillslope landsliding. A new remeshing algorithm called Surface Lagrangian Remeshing (SLR) is developed as a complement to remeshing algorithms dealing with internal elements. It allows one to take into account long-term erosion into 2D Lagrangian numerical codes based on triangular finite elements. Then the potentiality of measuring erodibility in-situ using a Schmidt hammer (R) is assessed for the active orogen of Taiwan, the diagenetic Annot sandstones and St Clement fault zone. Results suggest a strong control of R by effective properties. A linear model based on effective medium theory is applied to a fault zone with an unmacthed resolution (750 measures, 25 measures per square meter). The model successfully correlates R to fracture density. These results demonstrate that effective elasticity as well as erodibility are sensitive to the density and type of fractures. Finally I focus on the erosional and rheological conditions that allows reproducing post-orogenic evolution of mountain belts. A model coupling surface erosion and regional isostatic uplift is consistent with observations. The topographic decay and decrease of the ratio of surface elevation over crustal root thickness is at first order controlled by the initial geometry of the mountain belt and erosion efficiency. This new model highlights the control ofclimate and erodibility on the topographic decay and of lithospheric rheology on the perseverance of crustal roots.
Parmi les processus d'érosion, l'incision des rivières est classiquement décrit comme un processus clé contrôlant l'érosion des paysages. L'efficacité de l'incision est principalement influencée par le climat et par l'érodabilité. Ce dernier paramètre ne dépend pas seulement de la nature du substratum rocheux, mais aussi de sa déformation passée qui affecte ses propriétés rhéologiques équivalentes. Les principaux objectifs de cette thèse sont: (1) de mieux contraindre les relations entre propriétés équivalentes et érodabilité, et (2) de quantifier l'influence de l'érosion et de l'érodabilité sur la formation ou la décadence, spatiale et temporelle, de la topographie. Plusieurs outils numériques sont développés. Un formalisme 1D d'évolution des paysages est proposé, prenant en compte simultanément l'incision des rivières avec une distribution stochastique des débits en eau et l'érosion des versants par glissements de terrain. Un nouvel algorithme de remaillage appelé Surface Lagrangian Remeshing (SLR) est développé. Il permet de prendre en compte l'érosion à long terme dans les codes numériques 2D Lagrangiens basés sur des éléments finis triangulaires. Ensuite, la possibilité de mesurer in-situ l'érodabilité avec un marteau de Schmidt (R) est évaluée pour: l'orogène actif de Taiwan, les grès diagénétiques d'Annot et la zone de faille de St Clément. Les résultats suggèrent un fort contrôle de R par les propriétés équivalentes des roches testées. Un modèle linéaire, basé sur la théorie des milieux équivalents, est appliqué à une zone de faille avec une résolution inégalée (750 mesures, 25 mesures par mètre carré). Le modèle permet de corréler avec succès la densité de fracture et R. Ces résultats démontrent empiriquement que l'élasticité équivalente ainsi que l'érodabilité sont sensibles à la densité et à la nature des fractures. Enfin j'étudie les conditions d'érosion et de rhéologie qui permettent de reproduire l'évolution des chaînes de montagnes post-orogéniques. Un modèle couplant érosion en surface et soulèvement isostatique régional est compatible avec les observations. Les taux de décroissance topographique et de diminution du rapport de l'élévation de surface sur l'épaisseur de racine crustale sont contrôlés au premier ordre par la géométrie initiale de la chaîne de montagne et par l'efficacité de l'érosion. Ce nouveau modèle met en évidence le contrôle du climat et de l'érodabilité sur la décroissance topographique et de la rhéologie lithosphérique sur la persévérance des racines crustales.
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00602341

tel-00602341
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00602341
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00602341/document
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00602341/file/thesephilippesteer.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
Calculation of seismic risks in a zone are based on stochastic models describing at best the seismic activity. Our focus is the spatio-temporal evolution of the probability of earthquake occurrences. The main modelling tool is the theory of the point processes. We discuss about the spatio-temporal extension of ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence) with marks and study the properties of the log-likelihood and the maximum likelihood estimators. Seismic data from the Lesser Antilles Arc carried out between 1999 and 2004 are analyzed.
39th Annual Meeting of the Statistical Society of Canada
Wolfville, Canada

hal-00601513
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00601513