Éditeur(s) : Yale University
Résumé : Sea-surface temperature images of the coastal upwelling regions off Northwest Africa show that the core of upwelling is sometimes located far from the coast. This has been documented in three regions that share a common feature, namely a wide and shallow continental shelf. This upwelling feature plays a key role in the ecology of the Canary Current System. It creates an innerfront which provides retention for biological material, e.g. fish eggs and larvae, in the highly productive nearshore environment. An analytical model has been developed based on a two dimensional extension of Ekman's solution. The linear and steady response of a homogeneous ocean forced by an upwelling-favorable wind provides a mechanism for the upwelling separation from the coast. The merging of the surface and bottom Ekman layers induces a very weak cross-shore circulation and a "kinematic barrier" for the Ekman transport divergence. In the case of an alongshore wind, the barrier is located near the isobath h ≈ 0.4D, where D is the thickness of Ekman layers. This yields an upwelling cell which is essentially concentrated in the region 0.5D < h < 1.25D, with upwelling occurring preferentially near the isobath h ≈ 0.6D. It turns out that the cross-shore width of upwelling scales with D/S, the ratio of Ekman depth to bottom topographic slope. The application of this solution to real bathymetric profiles rationalizes, not only the offshore upwelling observations in Northwest Africa, but also the influence of topography on the cross-shelf structure of a wind-driven coastal upwelling. The model also quantifies the effect of the cross-shore wind component showing how it drives the nearshore pressure gradient adjustment and how it affects the upwelling. A linear numerical experiment reproduces the theoretical steady solution, thereby allowing investigation of the transient regime. Relaxation of the hypothesis in the numerical model validates the linear assumption of the theory and then allows investigation of the sensitivity to friction parameterizations and the influence of stratification. The latter leads to an "oscillation" of the upwelling cell with seaward migration driven by outcropping and homogeneization of the water column, and, coastal incursion driven by a "boundary layers splitting" process caused by shoreward advection of the isopycnal dome and stratification of the inner shelf.
Journal of Marine Research (Yale University), 2008-09 , Vol. 66 , N. 5 , P. 589-616

Droits : 2008 Yale University
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2008/publication-6334.pdf
DOI:10.1357/002224008787536790
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/6334/

Éditeur(s) : Montpellier 1
Résumé : Understanding bioaccumulation mechanisms of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) is a major issue for environmental risk assessment. In this work, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), a model contaminant family, has been studied in the European hake (Merluccius merluccius), a high trophic level species from the Gulf of Lions. High concentrations of PCBs were measured in hake from this area compared to those encountered in the population of the Bay of Biscay. PCB biomagnification was highlighted along its food web from marine phytoplankton, suggesting a strong influence of diet on contamination levels. The role of other biological processes was also apprehended in order to understand the high variability of observed levels. Thus, growth, sex, and also the degree of sexual maturity appear as major factors explaining the measured concentrations in fish. A PCB bioaccumulation model in the hake, based on the Dynamic Energy Budget theory (DEB), was developed. This approach is based on a bioenergetic model, reproducing the main physiological functions of an organism (feeding, growth and reproduction), coupled with a kinetic model of contaminants. The growth and evolution of contamination levels of several PCB congeners during the life of male and female hakes is satisfactorily simulated, both in the Gulf of Lions and in the Bay of Biscay, validating the processes taken into account. This combined modelling approach appears well adapted to study the fate of contaminants in fish, and paves the way for a realistic understanding of their effects on major biological functions of fish.
La compréhension des mécanismes de bioaccumulation des contaminants organiques persistants (POP) est un enjeu majeur pour l'évaluation des risques environnementaux. Lors de ce travail, le devenir d'une famille de contaminants modèles, les polychlorobiphényles (PCB), a été étudié chez une espèce de rang trophique élevé du golfe du Lion, le merlu Européen (Merluccius merluccius). Des concentrations élevées en PCB ont été mesurées dans les merlus de ce secteur en comparaison à celles rencontrées dans la population du golfe de Gascogne. La mise en évidence d'une bioamplification des PCB le long de son réseau trophique, depuis le phytoplancton marin, suggère une influence importante de l'alimentation sur les niveaux de contamination. Le rôle d'autres processus biologiques a également été appréhendé afin de comprendre la forte variabilité des niveaux observés. Ainsi, la croissance, le sexe, mais également le degré de maturité sexuel apparaissent comme des facteurs explicatifs majeurs des concentrations en PCB mesurées dans les poissons. Un modèle de bioaccumulation des PCB chez le merlu, basé sur la théorie de Budget d'Energie Dynamique (DEB), a été développé. Il s'agit d'une approche basée sur le couplage d'un modèle bioénergétique, reproduisant les principales fonctions physiologiques de l'organisme (nutrition, croissance et reproduction), avec un modèle de cinétique des contaminants. La croissance et l'évolution des niveaux de contamination de plusieurs congénères de PCB au cours de la vie des merlus mâles et femelles est simulée de manière satisfaisante, tant dans le golfe de Gascogne que dans le golfe du Lion, validant ainsi les processus pris en compte. Cette approche combinée de modélisation apparaît tout à fait adaptée à l'étude du devenir des contaminants chez les poissons, et ouvre la voie à une compréhension réaliste de leurs effets sur les grandes fonctions biologiques de ces organismes.

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2008/these-6490.pdf
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/6490/

Éditeur(s) : Inter-research
Résumé : Environmental conditions experienced by aquatic organisms are archived in biogenic carbonates such as fish otoliths, bivalve shells and coral skeletons. These calcified structures present an accretionary growth and variations in optical properties - color or opacity - that are used to reconstruct time. Full and reliable exploitation of the information extracted from these structures is, however, often limited as the metabolic processes that control their growth and their optical properties are poorly understood. Here, we propose a new modeling framework that couples both the growth of a biogenic carbonate and its optical properties with the metabolism of the organism. The model relies on well-tested properties of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory. It is applied to otoliths of the Bay of Biscay anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) for which a DEB model has been previously developed. The model reproduces well-known otolith patterns and thus provides us with mechanisms for the metabolic control of otolith size and opacity at the scale of an individual lifespan. Two original contributions using this framework are demonstrated. First, the model can be used to reconstruct the temporal variations in the food assimilated by an individual fish. Reconstructing food conditions of past and present aquatic species in their natural environment is key ecological information to better understand population dynamics. Second, we show that non-seasonal checks can be discriminated from seasonal checks, which is a well-recognized problem when interpreting fish otoliths. We discuss further developments of the model and the experimental settings required to test this new promising framework.
Marine Ecology-progress Series (0171-8630) (Inter-research), 2012 , Vol. 447 , P. 151-164

Droits : 2012 Inter-Research
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00060/17082/14593.pdf
DOI:10.3354/meps09492
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00060/17082/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union
Résumé : International audience
We present a 2-D Contact Dynamics discrete element model for simulating initiation and motion of rock avalanches, integrating hillslope geometry, Mohr-Coulomb rock behavior, pore pressure before avalanche triggering, and avalanche trigger. Avalanche motion is modeled as a dense granular flow of dry frictional and cohesive particles. On the basis of granular physics and shear experiments, we review some of the theories for the unexpectedly long runout of rock avalanches. Different causes are evoked, according to the strength (strong or weak) of the slip surface relative to the bulk. "Mechanical fluidization'' and "acoustic fluidization'' theories state that agitation of rock particles reduces frictional strength, increasing runout. Conversely, granular mechanics suggests that, as "shear-strain'' rate increases, granular material becomes more agitated, more dissipative, and more resistant. Another theory states that dynamic fragmentation of clasts creates an isotropic pressure that drives longer runout. In contrast, granular mechanics suggests that fragmentation may induce fluidization and strengthening of the granular material, while particle size reduction (among others) induces weakening of the granular flow and enhances long runout. Runout is also enhanced for column-like rock masses collapsing from steep hillslopes. Long runout may also be linked to thermal weakening mechanisms at the slip surface (e.g., thermal pressurization, and shear melting), which may lower drastically the shear strength. The model is illustrated with a hypothetical example of a rain-triggered avalanche, mobilizing shallowly dipping layers. Several phases are identified, including slope failure, avalanche triggering resulting from slip weakening, and avalanche motion in which rocks are folded and sheared.
ISSN: 0148-0227

hal-00420883
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00420883
DOI : 10.1029/2008JF001072

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Oxford University Press (OUP)
Résumé : International audience
Several studies, both theoretical and experimental, show that sedimentary rocks have a fractal pore-grain interface. In this paper a computer simulated 3-D sedimentary rock structure generated by the Relaxed Ballistic Bidisperse Deposition Model (RBBDM), is investigated to characterize the micro structure of its pores. The pore volume and the rock-pore interface show the same fractal dimension indicating that the pore volume is a fractal. The two point density correlation is computed for the pore space and the results compare favourably with the range reported from experiments. An array of 2-D X-ray tomography micrograph sections of a real sedimentary rock, an oolitic limestone (pure calcite) from the Mondeville formation of Middle Jurassic age (Paris Basin, France), was used to generate a 3-D bitmap. The 3-D real rock sample generated in this manner, was analysed for similar studies as the simulated structure. The results were compared with those obtained from simulation. The simulation results agree qualitatively with the real rock sample. Diffusion through the connected pore space of the simulated structure was studied using a random walk algorithm and the results compared with the similar simulation study done on the 3-D oolitic limestone specimen. In both cases diffusion was found to be anomalous indicating that the sedimentary rock has a fractal geometry. The favourable comparability of results between the simulated and real rock supports the usefulness of the model of sedimentary rock generation which can be applicable to transport phenomena.
ISSN: 0956-540X

hal-00823061
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00823061
DOI : 10.1093/gji/ggs084

Éditeur(s) : Université des Antilles Études caribéennes
Résumé : Evaluer les retombées économiques de manifestations sportives sur les territoires d’accueil est l’une des conditions permettant de décider de la pérennisation ou non de ces évènements. Cette évaluation revêt une grande importance pour les prestataires de services, les institutionnels et les diverses entreprises qui y sont engagés, car elle leur permet d’avoir une vision plus claire du marché, et le cas échéant d’ajuster et d’affiner leur politique évènementielle pour l’avenir. Aujourd’hui, apparaît de plus en plus un besoin croissant d’évaluation de la part de praticiens et d’acteurs publics impliqués dans les activités sportives. Ces derniers comme le grand public s’interrogent quelquefois sur l’utilité ou la pertinence économique et sociale de tels évènements.Aussi, l’objectif prioritaire de cette étude est de proposer dans le cas de la Guadeloupe, à partir d’un cadre conceptuel précis et d’une méthodologie partagée et éprouvée, une évaluation territoriale de l’impact économique et social de la Route du rhum, en retenant deux approches: l’une en niveau, déterminant successivement les valeurs du multiplicateur input-output à l’aide d’un tableau entrées-sorties (TES) de l’économie guadeloupéenne, et du multiplicateur de la base qui s’appuie sur les résultats d’une méta-analyse; l’autre , dynamique, spécifie par un modèle économétrique l’influence de la Route du rhum et d’autres variables sur la croissance économique de la Guadeloupe. L’enjeu consiste à se doter collectivement de points de repère afin que les différents acteurs de ce sport puissent situer les effets de leurs actions par rapport à d’autres pratiques, d’autres territoires, et à clarifier le niveau de contribution économique de cette activité sportive sur le territoire de Guadeloupe. Les résultats obtenus convergent et montrent qu’en dépit d’un succès indéniable au plan sportif et médiatique, la Route du rhum, évènement sportif de voile de haut niveau reliant tous les quatre ans St Malo à Pointe-a-Pitre, enregistre au plan économique des résultats modestes si l’on en juge à la fois par les médiocres retombées induites en matière de fréquentation touristique, par les faibles coefficients multiplicateurs de revenu affichés, par un ratio coût-bénéfice défavorable et par les incidences mineures que provoque cet évènement sur la croissance économique régionale.
Evaluation of economic effects from sport events is necessary to pursue or not these events. This evaluation is important for enterprises that provide goods and services also for the government, because it allows them to obtain an accurate vision of the future.Today, we have a growing need of evaluation from the people involved in sport activities. Sometimes, these people ask themselves on economic and social advantages of these events.The objective of this paper is to propose for Guadeloupe a rigourous methodology that assesses the economic and social impact of Route du rhum which is a transatlantic competition between St-Malo and Pointe-a-Pitre. We use two approaches: the first of which is level-based and determines the values of both economic base multipliers and input-output multipliers by composing an input-output table of the Guadeloupe economy. The second, dynamic approach specifies from an econometric model the impact of several variables, especially those of la Route du rhum. The goal is to provide findings to stakeholders of this sport for comparison. The results of the investigation merge and show globally weak economic performance of Route du rhum, particularly a poor cost-benefit ratio, weak economic multipliers and inter-industry linkages.
Guadeloupe

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
urn:doi:10.4000/etudescaribeennes.5296
http://journals.openedition.org/etudescaribeennes/5296

Éditeur(s) : Université des Antilles et de la Guyane
Résumé : The need for an integrated approach to fisheries is now widely affirmed, including the FAO, in particular in the context of tropical artisanal fisheries. These small-scale fisheries, often multispecies are very important in terms of production, employment and food security. However these fisheries and the exploited resources are often characterized by a lack of data making difficult their management within an ecosystem approach, and by the ecological and economic system complexities including trophic and technological interactions. This thesis aims to contribute to the development of bioeconomic tools for small tropical fisheries in a sustainable management perspective based on the ecosystem approach. In this perspective, the French Guiana coastal fishery constitutes an interesting case study. The thesis proposes multi-criteria evaluations, complex bioeconomic models and viable management scenarios for this fishery. At first, multivariate statistical analysis suggests a satisfactory overall status of the fishery in terms of sustainability. However, some performance differences are noted within the fishery, particularly at border areas. Also, management improvements are proposed. Then, through bioeconomic modeling, projections of different fishing scenarios show that, in the long-term, the current exploitation level may not be consistent with the future increase of local demand and a loss of biodiversity may occur. A scenario called "co-viability" reconciling ecological, economic and social objectives, with a high probability of achievement is exhibited. Finally, the comparison of optimal behavior in cooperative and non-cooperative conditions, confirms that harvest levels are greater when actors do not cooperate. Furthermore, it is shown that the state of the ecosystem depends on the fishing strategies and the type of interaction between species. Beyond the diagnosis made for the case study, the method is promising in the context of small tropical fisheries, while the co-viability approach allows finding the exploitation conditions under which ecological and socio-economic sustainability are meet, what the conventional fisheries management generally do not allow.
La nécessité d’une approche intégrée des pêches est actuellement largement affirmée, notamment par la FAO, en particulier dans le contexte des pêcheries artisanales tropicales. Ces pêcheries à petites échelles, souvent multi-spécifiques sont très importantes en termes d’emploi et de production, y compris pour la sécurité alimentaire. Néanmoins ces pêcheries et la biodiversité exploitées sont souvent marquées, d’une part, par le manque de données rendant difficile leur gestion dans le cadre d’une approche écosystémique, d’autre part, par la complexité des systèmes écologiques et économiques sous-jacents incluant interactions trophiques et techniques. Cette thèse contribue à la mise au point d’outils bioéconomiques adaptés aux petites pêcheries tropicales dans la perspective d’une gestion durable des pêches fondée sur l’approche écosystémique. Dans cette perspective, la pêcherie côtière en Guyane Française constitue un cas d’étude particulièrement fécond. La thèse propose ainsi des évaluations multi-critères, des modèles bioéconomiques complexes et des scénarios de gestion viable pour cette pêcherie. Dans un premier temps l’analyse statistique multivariée suggère un statut global satisfaisant de la pêcherie en termes de durabilité. Cependant des différences de performance sont notées au sein de la pêcherie, notamment au niveau des zones frontalières. Aussi des améliorations dans le mode de gestion sont proposées. Ensuite, à travers la modélisation bioéconomique, les projections des différents scénarios de pêche montrent qu’à long terme le niveau d’exploitation actuel peut ne pas être en adéquation avec la future augmentation de la demande locale et qu’une perte de biodiversité peut avoir lieu. Un scenario dit de "co-viabilité" conciliant des objectifs à la fois écologique, économique et social, avec une probabilité de réalisation satisfaisante, est mis en exergue. Enfin, la comparaison des comportements optimaux en situation coopératif et non coopératif, montre dans quelle mesure la viabilité est favorisée quand les acteurs coopèrent. Au-delà du diagnostic apporté pour le cas d’étude, la méthode utilisée s’avère prometteuse dans le contexte des petites pêcheries tropicales, tandis que l’approche de co-viabilité permet de trouver les modalités d’exploitation dans le cadre de compromis entre durabilité écologique et socio-économique, ce que les principes de gestion halieutiques traditionnels ne permettent généralement pas.

Droits : 2013 Université des Antilles et de la Guyane
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00144/25492/23646.pdf
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00144/25492/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Oxford University Press (OUP)
Résumé : International audience
We performed forward modelling of seismic anisotropy beneath a migrating strike-slip plate boundary to: (1) test if such a geodynamic context might explain teleseismic shear wave splitting data in the vicinity of the central part of the San Andreas Fault and (2) constrain the power of such data to unravel vertical and lateral variations in deformation patterns in the upper mantle. The modelling involves five steps: (1) thermomechanical modelling, using a finite-element code, of the deformation field, (2) viscoplastic self-consistent modelling of the resulting olivine and pyroxene crystal preferred orientations, (3) calculation of the elasticity tensors for different domains of the finite elements (FEs) model, (4) forward modelling of seismic wave propagation through the model using ray theory, finite-frequency theory and a full-wave approach and (5) performing splitting measurements on the synthetic seismograms. SKS splitting data in central California are best fitted by a model with a hotter geotherm within 60 km of the plate boundary accounting for the opening of an asthenospheric window due to the northward migration of the Mendocino Triple Junction. The westward motion of the plate boundary cannot however explain the rotation of fast polarization directions east of the San Andreas Fault in central California. Comparison between modelled and measured individual shear wave splitting also implies that the homogeneity of the two-layer models accounting for the observations in the vicinity of the San Andreas Fault indicates a sharp transition between lithospheric and asthenospheric deformations beneath this plate boundary. The ability of different synthetic approaches to localize horizontally and vertically the plate boundary-related deformation differs significantly. Splitting in ray theory synthetics closely follow variations in olivine crystallographic preferred orientations in the model. In contrast, splitting analysis on full-wave synthetics, which should be more representative of actual long-period SKS waves, results in smooth apparent lateral variations of anisotropy; the exact location and width of the plate boundary may only be retrieved by comparing fast-polarization profiles obtained using a multichannel analysis on waves with different periods.
ISSN: 0956-540X

hal-01236150
http://hal.univ-reunion.fr/hal-01236150
http://hal.univ-reunion.fr/hal-01236150/document
http://hal.univ-reunion.fr/hal-01236150/file/Bonnin_San_Andreas_modelling_GJI2012.pdf
DOI : 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05650.x

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : 15 pages
A Stochastic Differential Equation appearing in the statistical theory of turbulence is extended in random environment by assuming that its two parameters are switched by an unobserved continuoustime Markov chain whose states represent the states of the environment. A Dirichlet process is placed as a prior on the space of the sample paths of this chain, leading to a hierarchical Dirichlet model whose estimation is done both on simulated data and on real data of wind speed measured at the entrance of a mangrove ecosystem.
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00455050

hal-00455050
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00455050
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00455050/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00455050/file/CSDA06_Srik_Hal.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : 27 pages
Cascade Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE), a continuous time model for energy dissipation in turbulence, is a generalization of the Yaglom discrete cascade model. We extend this SDE to a model in random environment by assuming that its two parameters are switched by a continuous time Markov chain whose states represent the states of the environment. Moreover, a Dirichlet process is placed as a prior on the space of sample paths of this chain. We propose a Bayesian estimation method of this model which is tested both on simulated data and on real data of wind speed measured at the entrance of the mangrove ecosystem in Guadeloupe.
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00286131

hal-00286131
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00286131
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00286131/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00286131/file/Srik11_PhysicaDDspace.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union
Résumé : International audience
Earth deformation is a multi-scale process ranging from seconds (seismic deformation) to millions of years (tectonic deformation). Bridging short- and long-term deformation and developing seismotectonic models has been a challenge in experimental tectonics for more than a century. Since the formulation of Reid's elastic rebound theory 100 years ago, laboratory mechanical models combining frictional and elastic elements have been used to study the dynamics of earthquakes. In the last decade, with the advent of high-resolution monitoring techniques and new rock analogue materials, laboratory earthquake experiments have evolved from simple spring-slider models to scaled analogue models. This evolution was accomplished by advances in seismology and geodesy along with relatively frequent occurrences of large earthquakes in the past decade. This coincidence has significantly increased the quality and quantity of relevant observations in nature and triggered a new understanding of earthquake dynamics. We review here the developments in analogue earthquake modelling with a focus on those seismotectonic scale models that are directly comparable to observational data on short to long timescales. We lay out the basics of analogue modelling, namely scaling, materials and monitoring, as applied in seismotectonic modelling. An overview of applications highlights the contributions of analogue earthquake models in bridging timescales of observations including earthquake statistics, rupture dynamics, ground motion, and seismic-cycle deformation up to seismotectonic evolution.
ISSN: 1869-9510

hal-01553120
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01553120
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01553120/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01553120/file/rosenau2017.pdf
DOI : 10.5194/se-8-597-2017

Éditeur(s) : Elsevier
Résumé : Bioaccumulation is difficult to document because responses differ among chemical compounds, with environmental conditions, and physiological processes characteristic of each species. We use a mechanistic model, based on the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory, to take into account this complexity and study factors impacting accumulation of organic pollutants in fish through ontogeny. The bioaccumulation model proposed is a comprehensive approach that relates evolution of hake PCB contamination to physiological information about the fish, such as diet, metabolism, reserve and reproduction status. The species studied is the European hake (Merluccius merluccius, L. 1758). The model is applied to study the total concentration and the lipid normalised concentration of 4 PCB congeners in male and female hakes from the Gulf of Lions (NW Mediterranean sea) and the Bay of Biscay (NE Atlantic ocean). Outputs of the model compare consistently to measurements over the life span of fish. Simulation results clearly demonstrate the relative effects of food contamination, growth and reproduction on the PCB bioaccumulation in hake. The same species living in different habitats and exposed to different PCB prey concentrations exhibit marked difference in the body accumulation of PCBs. At the adult stage, female hakes have a lower PCB concentration compared to males for a given length. We successfully simulated these sex-specific PCB concentrations by considering two mechanisms: a higher energy allocation to growth for females and a transfer of PCBs from the female to its eggs when allocating lipids from reserve to eggs. Finally, by its mechanistic description of physiological processes, the model is relevant for other species and sets the stage for a mechanistic understanding of toxicity and ecological effects of organic contaminants in marine organisms.
Journal of Sea Research (1385-1101) (Elsevier), 2009-10 , Vol. 62 , N. 2-3 , P. 124-134

Droits : 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2009/publication-6789.pdf
DOI:10.1016/j.seares.2009.02.006
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/6789/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : The purpose of this thesis is to improve the knowledge about and apply data mining techniques and some Bayesian model in the field of social and environmental health inequalities. On the neighborhood scale on the Paris, Marseille, Lyon and Lille metropolitan areas, the health event studied is infant mortality. We try to explain its risk with socio-economic data retrieved from the national census and environmental exposures such as air pollution, noise, proximity to traffic, green spaces and industries. The thesis is composed of two parts. The data mining part details the development of a procedure of creation of multidimensional socio-economic indices and of an R package that implements it, followed by the creation of a cumulative exposure index. In this part, data mining techniques are used to synthesize information and provide composite indicators amenable for direct usage by stakeholders or in the framework of epidemiological studies. The second part is about Bayesian models. It explains the "BYM" model. This model allows to take into account the spatial dimension of the data when estimating mortality risks. In both cases, the methods are exposed and several results of their usage in the above-mentioned context are presented. We also show the value of the socio-economic index procedure, as well as the existence of social inequalities of infant mortality in the studied metropolitan areas.
Cette thèse a pour but d'améliorer les connaissances concernant les techniques d'analyse de données et certains modèles bayésiens dans le domaine de l'étude des inégalités sociales et environnementales de santé. À l'échelle géographique de l'IRIS sur les agglomérations de Paris, Marseille, Lyon et Lille, l'événement sanitaire étudié est la mortalité infantile dont on cherchera à expliquer le risque avec des données socio-économiques issues du recensement et des expositions environnementales comme la pollution de l'air, les niveaux de bruit et la proximité aux industries polluantes, au trafic automobile ou aux espaces verts. Deux volets principaux composent cette thèse. Le volet analyse de données détaille la mise au point d'une procédure de création d'indices socio-économiques multidimensionnels et la conception d'un package R l'implémentant, puis la création d'un indice de multi-expositions environnementales. Pour cela, on utilise des techniques d'analyse de données pour synthétiser l'information et fournir des indicateurs composites utilisables directement par les décideurs publics ou dans le cadre d'études épidémiologiques. Le second volet concerne les modèles bayésiens et explique le modèle " BYM ". Celui-ci permet de prendre en compte les aspects spatiaux des données et est mis en œuvre pour estimer le risque de mortalité infantile. Dans les deux cas, les méthodes sont présentées et différents résultats de leur utilisation dans le contexte ci-dessus exposés. On montre notamment l'intérêt de la procédure de création d'indices socio-économiques et de multi-expositions, ainsi que l'existence d'inégalités sociales de mortalité infantile dans les agglomérations étudiées.
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00943004

tel-00943004
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00943004
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00943004/document
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00943004/file/Manuscrit_LallouA_final.pdf

Éditeur(s) : Amer Geophysical Union
Résumé : The objective of the paper is to analyze the degree of realism of the Parallel Ocean Program ( POP) model of the Los Alamos Laboratory using the combined TOPEX/Poseidon and ERS-1/2 (TPERS) sea level anomaly (SLA) data sets and to present a detailed study of mesoscale characteristics in the North Atlantic. This description spans 8 years of data from 1993 to 2000. At first, we focus on the analysis of the mean eddy kinetic energy ( EKE) and show that the major characteristics of mesoscale variability are realistically simulated despite an overestimation of the EKE model in the Gulf Stream region. We then describe the SLA space and timescales and propagation velocities at a resolution never achieved before. There is a high level of agreement between the model and altimeter values regarding spatial scales and propagation velocities. POP timescales are, however, significantly longer in the subtropical regions. The westward zonal propagation velocity of both the model and the observations are higher than the speed computed from standard Rossby wave theory. The effect of mean current advection on POP and TPERS propagation velocities is also clearly seen in the Labrador Current and in the Gulf Stream and its recirculations. Finally, a study of the seasonal and interannual variability of the high-frequency (HF) EKE is carried out. The model reproduces accurately most of the HF-EKE seasonal variations in the Caribbean Sea and at high latitudes despite a phase advance. A clear HF-EKE interannual variability is then evidenced. Our hypothesis is that a contraction of the subpolar and subtropical gyres due to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) could explain a reduction of the eddy activity in the North Atlantic Current, in the Newfoundland basin, and in the Azores Current. In the Caribbean Sea, the interannual variability of the EKE for both POP and TPERS seems to be caused by an interannual variability of the wind stress.
Journal Of Geophysical Research-oceans (0148-0227) (Amer Geophysical Union), 2004-12 , Vol. 109 , N. C1205 , P. 16 PP.

Droits : 2004 AGU
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00087/19841/17491.pdf
DOI:10.1029/2004JC002360
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00087/19841/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : Point processes are often used as spatial or spatio-temporal distribution models of occurrences. In this PhD dissertation, we focus first on Cox processes driven by a hidden process associated with a Dirichlet process. This model corresponds to hidden occurrences influencing the stochastic intensity of observed occurrences. We generalize the notion of "Shot noise Cox process" introduced by M{o}ller and develop its bayesian analysis by a Gibbs sampler combined with a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. We show that our MCMC method is a reversible jump one. The model takes into account a random number of hidden contributions producing effects on the observed point process intensity. Therefore the parameter space has a variable dimension. We focus the statistical inference on the estimation of the hidden contribution expected value, the hidden contribution expected number, the spatial influence and correlation parameters. The contribution equality test and contribution independence test are proposed. Applications in epidemiology and ecology are shown from extit{Rubus fruticosa} data, extit{Ibicella lutea} data and death number data in counties of Georgia, USA. Two situations are considered with respect to available data~: firstly, the spatial positions of occurrences are observed between several pairs of consecutive dates; secondly, counts are carried out over a fixed time interval in several spatial sampling units. Secondly, we focus on point processes with memory introduced by Kagan, Ogata and Vere-Jones, pioneers in statistical seismology. In fact, spatio-temporal point processes play an important role in the studies of earthquake catalogs since they consist of seismic events with their dates and spatial locations. We studied an ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence) model with time independent background intensity and several triggering functions taking into account previous events. We illustrate our approach with a seismicity study of the Lesser Antilles arc. A comparaison study of Gamma, Weibull, Log-Normal and modified Omori law triggering function models is also carried out. We show that the modified Omori law does not fit the Lesser Antilles seismic data and the best adjusted triggering function is the Weibull model. Consequently, the waiting time between aftershocks is weaker in the Lesser Antilles zone compared to the one in regions with seismicity described by the modified Omori law. In other words, aftershock aggregativity is higher in the Lesser Antilles region. The stochastic background intensity following a Dirichlet process centered on a spatial log-normal process is discussed.
Les processus ponctuels sont souvent utilisés comme modèles de répartitions spatiales ou spatio-temporelles d'occurrences. Dans cette thèse, nous nous intéressons tout d'abord à des processus de Cox dirigés par un processus caché associé à un processus de Dirichlet. Ce modèle correspond à des occurrences cachées influençant l'intensité stochastique des occurrences observées. Nous généralisons la notion de " Shot noise Cox process " introduite par Moller et développons le traitement bayésien par un échantillonneur de Gibbs combiné à un algorithme de Metropolis-Hastings. Nous montrons que cette méthode MCMC est à sauts réversibles. Le modèle prend en compte, en effet, un nombre aléatoire de contributions cachées influençant l'intensité du processus ponctuel observé donc a un espace paramétrique de dimension variable. Nous focalisons l'inférence statistique sur l'estimation de la valeur espérée de chaque contribution cachée, le nombre espéré de contributions cachées, le degré d'influence spatiale de ces contributions et leur degré de corrélation. Le test d'égalité des contributions et celui de leur indépendance sont ainsi développés. L'utilité en épidémiologie et en écologie est alors démontrée à partir de données de Rubus fruticosa, Ibicella lutea et de mortalité dans les cantons de Georgia, USA. En termes de données observées, deux situations sont considérées: premièrement, les positions spatiales des occurrences sont observées entre plusieurs paires de dates consécutives; deuxièmement, des comptages sont effectués, au cours d'une période fixée, dans des unités d'échantillonnage spatiales. D'autre part, nous nous intéressons aux processus ponctuels à mémoire introduits par Kagan, Ogata et Vere-Jones, précurseurs de la statistique sismologique. En effet, les processus ponctuels spatio-temporels ont une place importante dans l'étude des catalogues sismiques puisque ces derniers sont généralement constitués d'événements sismiques datés et géo-référencés. Nous avons étudié un modèle ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence) avec une intensité d'arrière-plan indépendante du temps et plusieurs fonctions déclenchantes permettant d'intégrer les événements antérieurs récents. Cette approche est utilisée pour étudier la sismicité de l'arc des Petites Antilles. Une étude comparative des modèles Gamma, Weibull, Log-Normal et loi d'Omori modifiée pour les fonctions déclenchantes est menée. Nous montrons que la loi d'Omori modifiée ne s'ajuste pas aux données sismiques des Petites Antilles et la fonction déclenchante la plus adaptée est le modèle de Weibull. Cela implique que le temps d'attente entre répliques dans la zone des Petites Antilles est plus faible que celui des régions à sismicité décrite par la loi d'Omori modifiée. Autrement dit, l'agrégation des répliques après un événement majeur est plus prononcée dans la zone des Petites Antilles. La possibilité d'inclure une intensité d'arrière-plan suivant un processus de Dirichlet centré sur un processus spatial log-gaussien est discutée.
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00841146

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
NNT : 2012AGUY0555
tel-00841146
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00841146
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00841146/document
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00841146/file/these_VALMY.pdf

Éditeur(s) : Amer Geophysical Union
Résumé : Bolide impacts and large-scale volcanic eruptions have been proposed as possible causes of the massive extinction of life that has occurred episodically in Earth's history. In spite of the catastrophic disruption of the local environment that accompanies bolide impacts and volcanic eruptions, it has been difficult to explain why these events sometimes lead to global extinction of species. We propose that, in some cases, the missing link may be provided by hypercanes, runaway hurricanes that are capable of injecting massive amounts of water and aerosols into the middle and upper stratosphere, where they may have profound effects on atmospheric chemistry and radiative transfer. Hypercanes are theorized to occur when the sea surface temperature exceeds a critical threshold, which may occur when sea water is locally heated by bolide impact, shallow-sea volcanism, or possibly, by overturning of superheated brine pools formed by underwater volcanic activity. Simulations using a convection-resolving nonhydrostatic, axisymmetric numerical model show that hypercanes can indeed develop when the sea surface temperature is high, and that they inject large amounts of mass into the stratosphere.
Journal Of Geophysical Research-atmospheres (2169-897X) (Amer Geophysical Union), 1995-07 , Vol. 100 , N. D7 , P. 13755-13765

Droits : 1995 by the American Geophysical Union.
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00258/36966/35611.pdf
DOI:10.1029/95JD01368
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00258/36966/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
The general context of this paper is the Bass model which presented a theory of the adoption of new products. We propose an agent based modelling to allow to model the respective grow of competing products. We assume that there is competition for the same market among two trademarks: each one has its own rate of spontaneous innovation and its own rate of imitation. This paper deals with the relative weight of these competing behaviors on the global dynamics; in particular, we ask the question of the equivalence between mass media influence and word-of-mouth effect.
IEEE RCIS 2014 Eighth International Conference on Research Challenges in Information Science
Marrakech, Morocco

hal-01288467
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01288467
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01288467/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01288467/file/poster.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : Two major findings emerge from the theoretical analysis of Transport-Tourism link via a game theory type model of capacity coordination. Firstly the model explains the optimal capacities ratio of Transport and Tourism by the quotient of the ratio of tourism type (ratio of the length of stay in the destination and of transport duration) divided by the installation costs ratio (of transport and tourism).The corollary of this first finding gives the second outcome: The optimal transport and Tourism profit ratio is the product of the ratio of the type of tourism by the index of overcapacity conditions (a non linear combination of installation costs, and durations). From these results, it follows an interpretive grid that allows, according to tourism types, firstly to identify the optimal overcapacities by the difference between installation costs; and secondly the equilibrium ratio of profits according to the overcapacity direction and the tourism types.
Deux résultats ressortent de l’analyse théorique du lien Transport-tourisme via un modèle de coordination des capacités : l’expression et les déterminants des capacités et des profits optimaux relatifs du Transport et du Tourisme. L’article démontre que le rapport des capacités optimales de transport et de tourisme dépend du ratio comparatif de leurs coûts d’installation à celui inversé de leur poids relatif. Ce premier résultat a pour corollaire le second : le rapport d’équilibre des profits est le produit des indicateurs du type de tourisme (le ration des temps respectifs dans le transport et dans la destination) de la destination par celui identifiant les conditions de surcapacité relative. De ces résultats généraux, il suit une grille d’interprétation qui permet d’identifier d’abord le rapport optimal des capacités selon l’écart entre les coûts d’installation et le type de tourisme ; et ensuite le rapport d’équilibre des profits selon les sens des surcapacités relatives et le types de tourisme.
https://hal.univ-antilles.fr/hal-01265798

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
hal-01265798
https://hal.univ-antilles.fr/hal-01265798
https://hal.univ-antilles.fr/hal-01265798/document
https://hal.univ-antilles.fr/hal-01265798/file/TOURISME-TRANSPORT%20-%20CAPACITY%20COORDINATION%20VERS%20FRANC.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Résumé : International audience
Nowadays, technological advances in satellite imagery measurements as well as the development of dense geodetic and seismologic networks allow for a detailed analysis of surface deformation associated with active fault seismic cycle. However, the study of earthquake dynamics faces several limiting factors related to the difficulty to access the deep source of earthquake and to integrate the characteristic time scales of deformation processes that extend from seconds to thousands of years. To overcome part of these limitations and better constrain the role and couplings between kinematic and mechanical parameters, we have developed a new experimental approach allowing for the simulation of strike-slip fault earthquakes and analyze in detail hundreds of successive seismic cycle. Model rheology is made of multilayered visco-elasto-plastic analog materials to account for the mechanical behavior of the upper and lower crust and to allow simulating brittle/ductile coupling, postseismic deformation phase and far-field stress transfers. The kinematic evolution of the model surface is monitored using an optical system, based on subpixel spectral correlation of high-resolution digital images. First, results show that the model succeed in reproducing the deformation mechanisms and surface kinematics associated to the main phases of the seismic cycle indicating that model scaling is satisfactory. These results are comforted by using numerical algorithms to study the strain and stress distribution at the surface and at depth, along the fault plane. Our analog modeling approach appears, then, as an efficient complementary approach to investigate earthquake dynamics.
ISSN: 0278-7407

hal-01174176
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01174176
DOI : 10.1002/2014TC003701

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : International audience
In this paper we investigate finite-frequency effects in crustal tomography. We developed an inversion procedure based on an exact numerical computation of the sensitivity kernels. In this approach we compute the 3D travel-time sensitivity kernels by using (1) graph theory and an additional bending to estimate accurately both rays and travel-times between source/receiver and diffraction points and (2) paraxial ray theory to estimate the amplitude along theses rays. We invert both the velocity and the hypocentre parameters, using these so-called banana-doughnut kernels and the LSQR iterative solver. We compare the ray-theoretical and the finite-frequency tomography to image the intermediate structures beneath the Gulf of Corinth (Greece), which has long been recognized as the most active continental rifting zone in the Mediterranean region. Our dataset consists of 451 local events with 9233 P- firstarrival times recorded in the western part of the Gulf (Aigion area) in the framework of the 3F-Corinth European project. Previous tomographic images showed a complex velocity crustal model and a low-dip surface that may accommodate the deformation. Accurate velocity models will help to better constrain the rifting process, which is still a subject of debate. The main results of this study show that finite-frequency tomography improves crustal tomographic images by providing better resolved images of the 3D complicated velocity structure. Because the kernels spread the information over a volume, finite-frequency tomography results in a sharpening of layer boundaries as we observed for the shallower part of the crust (down to 5 km depth) beneath the Gulf of Corinth.
ISSN: 0016-8025

insu-00354702
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00354702
DOI : 10.1111/j.1365-2478.2007.00683.x