Résumé : Les travaux de recherche présentés dans ce mémoire s'inscrivent dans la lignée des approches de modélisation hydrologiques prédictives dirigées par les données. Nous avons particulièrement développé leur application sur le contexte difficile des phénomènes de crue éclairs caractéristiques des bassins versants de la région Caraïbe qui pose un dé fi sé.curi taire. En envisageant le problème de la prévision de crues comme un problème d'optimisation combinatoire difficile nous proposons d'utiliser la notion de métaneuristiques, à travers les algorithmes évolutionnaire notamment pour leur capacité à parcourir efficacement de grands espaces de recherche et fi fournir des solutions de bOlIDe qualité en des temps d'exécution raisonnables. Nous avons présenté l'approche de prédiction AV2D : Aggregate Variable Data Driven dom le concept central est la notion de variable agrégée. L'idée sous-jacente à ce concept est de considérer le pouvoir prédictif de nouvelles variables définies comme le résultat de fonctions tatistiques, dites d'agrégation calculées sur de donnée' correspondant à des périodes de temps précédent uo événem nt à prédire. Ces variable sont caractérisées par des ensembles de paramètres correspondant a leur pJ:opriétés. Nous avons imroduitle variables agrégées hydrométéorologiques permettant de répondre au problème de la classification d événements hydrologiques. La complexité du parcours de l'espace de recherche engendré par les paramètres définissant ces variables a été prise en compte grâce à la njse en oeuvre d'un algorithme évolutionnaire particulier dont les composants ont été spécifiquement définis pour ce problème. Nous avons montré, à travers une étude comparative avec d'autres approches de modélisation dirigées par les données, menée sur deux cas d'études de bassins versant caribéens, que l'approche AV2D est particulièrement bien adaptée à leur contexte. Nous étudions par la suite les bénéfices offerts par les approches de modélisation hydrologiques modulaires dirigées par les données, en définissant un procédé de division en sous-processus prenant en compte les caractéristiques paniculières des bassins versants auxquels nous nous intéressons. Nou avons proposé une extension des travaux précédents à travers la définition d'une approche de modélisation modulaire M2D: Spatial Modular Data Driven, consistant à considérer des sous-processus en divisant l'ensemble des exemples à classifier en sous-ensembles correspondant à des comportements hydrologiques homogènes. Nous avons montré à travers une étude comparative avec d autres approches dU'igées par les données mises en oeuvre sur les mêmes sous-ensembles de données que celte approche permet d améliorer les résultats de prédiction particulièrement à coun Lenne. Nous avons enfin proposé la modélisation d un outil de pi
The work presented in this thesis is in the area of data-driven hydrological modeling approaches. We particularly investigared their application on the difficult problem of flash flood phenomena typically observed in Caribbean watersheds. By considering the problem of flood prediction as a combinatorial optimization problem, we propose to use the notion of Oleraheuristics, through evolutionary algorithms, especially for their capacity ta visit effjciently large search space and to provide good solutions in reasonable execution times. We proposed the hydrological prediction approach AV2D: Aggregate Variable Data Driven which central concept is the notion of aggregate variable. The underlying idea of this [concept is to consider the predictive power of new variables defined as the results of statistical functions, called aggregation functions, computed on data corresponding ta time periods before an event ta predict. These variables are characterized by sets of parameters corresponding ta their specifications. We introduced hydro-meteorological aggregate variables allowing ta address the classification problem of hydrological events. We showed through a comparative study on two typical caribbean watersheds, using several common data driven modelling techniques that the AV2D approach is panicul.rly weil fitted ta the studied context. We also study the benefits offered by modulaI' approaches through the definition of the SM2D: Spatial Modular DataDriven approach, consisting in considering sub-processes partly defined by spatial criteria. We showed that the results obtained by the AV2D on these sub-processes allows to increase the performances particularly for short term prediction. Finally we proposed the modelization of a generic control tool for hydro-meteorological prediction systems, H2FCT: Hydro-meteorological Flood Forecasting Control 1'001

http://www.theses.fr/2013AGUY0673/document

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Springer Verlag
Résumé : International audience
PURPOSE: Dairy farming is a risk factor for the development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We assessed the prevalence of farming-induced COPD (FI-COPD) using a new screening device, and we analyzed symptoms and occupational risk factors. METHODS: We performed on-site screening study of bronchial obstruction using an electronic mini-spirometer (EMS) on an entire population of dairy farmers (n = 147) from two villages in Brittany, France. Suspected bronchial obstruction (FEV1/FEV6 <0.8) was confirmed with standardized lung function tests (FEV1/FVC ≤0.7). We assessed past medical histories, respiratory symptoms, and occupational tasks of subjects with bronchial obstruction; asthmatics were defined as atopic and/or reversible; smoking-induced COPD patients were defined as non-reversible, non-atopic with smoking histories (≥5 PY); and FI-COPD patients were defined as non-reversible, non-atopic, and non-smokers. RESULTS: Using the EMS, 30.6% (n = 45) of dairy farmers were suspected of bronchial obstruction and underwent standardized spirometry. The FEV1/FEV6 ratio and FEV1/FVC ratio were in good agreement (r² = 0.66, P < 0.0001). The prevalence of confirmed bronchial obstruction was 9.5% (n = 14), which included 4 asthmatics, 3 smoking-induced COPD subjects, and 7 FI-COPD subjects. All the COPD patients were GOLD Stage II, and none were aware of their respiratory disease. Foddering duration was significantly higher in FI-COPD subjects compared with non-obstructive subjects, with 44 versus 17 min/day, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The EMS was a convenient mean of screening for bronchial obstruction, especially in on-site settings, and allowed us to diagnose FI-COPD in a non-spontaneously complaining dairy farmer population. Foddering was considered a significant risk factor.
ISSN: 0340-0131

hal-00872929
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00872929
DOI : 10.1007/s00420-011-0708-6
PUBMED : 21986906

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Coastal Education and Research Foundation
Résumé : Special Issue 65 - International Coastal Symposium Volume 1
International audience
ISSN: 0749-0208

hal-01429044
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01429044
DOI : 10.2112/SI65-117.1

Éditeur(s) : Université des Antilles Études caribéennes
Résumé : Cet article analyse les déterminants de la disposition des managers à formaliser les PME informelles en Côte d’Ivoire. Les données utilisées portent sur 400 entreprises du secteur informel enquêtées dans le cadre du projet CAPEC/CRDI. À partir des statistiques descriptives et de l’estimation d’un modèle Probit, l’étude met en évidence d’une part les variables qui influencent négativement et d’autre part celles qui influencent positivement la disposition à formaliser les PME. Il ressort de ces enquêtes que les taxes, le fait que l’entreprise soit dirigée par une femme, les coûts d’enregistrement, l’affiliation à une organisation politique et l’ignorance des procédures ont un effet négatif sur la disposition des managers à formaliser leurs entreprises. Les résultats montrent que la possession d’un plan d’affaires à la création, l’expérience du manager, la localisation, le niveau d’instruction supérieur, la simplification des procédures d’enregistrement affectent positivement la propension à formaliser les PME informelles. De même, les problèmes d’accès au financement et aux marchés publics conduisent les managers à la formalisation de leurs entreprises. Au regard de ces déterminants, la réduction des coûts de la formalisation, un meilleur accès des PME qui se formalisent au financement et aux marchés publics, le renforcement des capacités des opérateurs de l’informel, l’instauration d’une fiscalité incitative et la vulgarisation des procédures de déclaration s’avèrent des leviers importants de la formalisation.
This paper analyzes the determinants of the willingness of managers to formalize informal SMEs in Côte d'Ivoire. The data used relate to 400 informal sector enterprises surveyed under the CAPEC / IDRC project. On the basis of descriptive statistics and the estimation of a Probit model, the study highlights both variables that negatively influence and those that positively influence the willingness to formalize SMEs. These surveys show that taxes, the fact that the company is headed by a woman, registration costs, affiliation to a political organization and ignorance of procedures have a negative effect on the formalization of businesses.Moreover, the results show that ownership of a business plan at creation, managerial experience, location, higher education, simplification of registration procedures positively affect the propensity to formalize informal SMEs. Similarly, the problems of access to finance and public procurement lead to more formalization. In view of these determinants, the reduction in the costs of formalization, better access by SMEs to financing and public procurement, capacity building for informal operators, the introduction of tax incentives and the Dissemination procedures are important levers of formalization.
Côte d’Ivoire

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
urn:doi:10.4000/etudescaribeennes.10358
http://journals.openedition.org/etudescaribeennes/10358

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
International Coral Reef Symposium 2012

hal-01429056
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01429056

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Public Library of Science
Résumé : International audience
ISSN: 1932-6203

hal-01520195
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01520195
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0176862

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Geological Society of America
Résumé : International audience
Lakes are major depositional systems for which the related depositional processes have long been considered relatively simple. Breaking this statement, this study presents a detailed analysis of deposits in Lake Saint-Jean, the third largest natural lake in Québec. In addition to postglacial deltaic and coastal depositional systems fringing the lake, current-controlled features such as a large subaqueous prograding wedge and three sediment drifts have been identifi ed in its central portion based on two-dimensional (2-D) acoustic high-resolution subbottom profiles. The large subaqueous prograding wedge is a 4-km-long and up to 15-m-thick heterolithic shelf-like construction in the southeastern part of the lake. The three sediment drifts are 0.1–0.5-km-long and 2–5-mthick mud mounds distributed on the lake floor in the central portion of the lake. Diatom analyses and radiocarbon dating show that the development of these current-controlled features occurred during the lacustrine phase, after the disconnection with the postglacial marine Laflamme Gulf at 8.5 cal. k.y. B.P. Depositional facies show evidence of recurrent bottom-current activity. Related deposits alternate with pelagic sedimentation stages characterized by the settling of mud and biogenic accumulations. We investigated the origin of bottom currents using a numerical simulation (SYMPHONIE, an oceanographic model), with the aim of modeling wind-induced lake-scale water circulation. Simulations suggest that the subaqueous prograding wedge and the three sediment drifts result from wind-induced bottom currents generated by storm events having wind speed greater than 10 m s–1. Such strong winds are able to significantly affect sedimentation in the central portion of Lake Saint-Jean. Theresulting wind-induced sedimentary features were integrated into a refi ned lacustrine depositional model that summarizes the evolution of a group of water bodies referred to as “wind-driven water bodies.” This study applies a new tool for lake strata characterization and highlights the potential diffi cultyin differentiating them from marine deposits in the geological record.
ISSN: 0016-7606

insu-01184724
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01184724
DOI : 10.1130/B31145.1

Résumé : Dans le cas des DOM, singulièrement la Guadeloupe, qui sont à l'aube de l'expérimentation de réformes profondes de politiques économiques, l'élaboration d'un outil de simulation macroéconomique tel qu'un MEGC apparaît naturellement comme une exigence plus que souhaitable. Ce recours à la construction de modèles spécifiques pour les DOM est en parfaite cohérence avec l'une des principales conclusions du rapport d'information diligenté par le Sénat aux lendemains de la crise sociale du début de l'année 2009. Les appels à projet de la Commission europèenne et du Ministère de l'Outre-mer vont justement dans le sens de pallier celte carence puisque la politique économique des RUP de façon générale est conduite à vue sans aucun outil d'investigation ex ante. Nous avons conçu plusieurs modèles. Parmi eux, CloDyn est le premier modèle macroéconomique pour les DOM à vocationopérationnelle. Composée de plus de 2000 équations, ce modèle d'équilibre général calculable tient compte de nombreuses rigidités sur les marchés des biens et services et du travail et se décline sous deux versions: statique et dynamique. Les élasticités ont fait l'objet d'estimations économétriques. Il tient compte de nombreuses spécificités tant au niveau de la fiscalité de ces régions (octroi de mer, taxe sur les carburants, subventions à l'exportation) que du coût des facteurs (exonérations des charges sur les bas salaires, sur rémunératio des fonctionnaires). Il repose sur une formalisation des mécanismes en oeuvre dans ces économies que nous avons appelé le DOM disease pour expliquer les dysfonctionnements persistants sur le plan macroéconomique.
In the case of the French overseas regions, particularly of Guadeloupe, which are just beginning to experiment with economic policies radical reforrns, the development of a macroeconomic simulation tool such as a CGE model appears naturally as a highly desirable requirement. The use of the construction of specifie models for DOM is fully consistent with a major finding of the report commissioned by the Senate in the aftermath of the social crisis of the early 2009. As a malter of facts, the purpose of the calls for project initiated by the European Commission and the Ministry of Overseas is to remedy this deficiency, since the RUP economie policy is generally to conduct no investigation tool ex ante. We designed several models. Among them, CloDyn is the first operational DOM-based macroeconomic rnodel. Composed of more than 2000 equations, this computable general equilibrium model takes into account many rigidities in the markets for goods and services and labor and is available in two versions: static and dynamic. Elasticities have been econometrically estimated. lt rests on many features of both taxation (dock dues, fuel tax, export subsidies) and the cost factors (exemption from charges on low wages, remuneration of civil servants). Il is based on a formalization of the mechanisms at work in these economies we calied the DOM disease to explain the persistent failures in such economies. lt also evaluates the monetary poverty among households with the use of a block of microsimulation model and we allow a profane in GAMS to use this tool and conduct its own analytical work thanks to a user friendly interface.

http://www.theses.fr/2011AGUY0411/document

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : 20 pp
We first analyze some atmospheric parameters measured in 2004 at the top of La Soufrière volcano: wind speed, pressure and temperature. Next, we study the stochastic process of the wind speed modulus which is of interest for prediction of pollution induced by the plume. We fit to the data various models : FARIMA, periodic trend plus multifractional Brownian noise, multifractal continuous cascades. The estimations show that they evoluate during some transition phases in response to environment changes. Thus, we finally suggest, for future works, some settings that should be more appropriate: time series with regime changes and stochastic processes in random environment.
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00165572

hal-00165572
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00165572
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00165572/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00165572/file/Windsouf_v11.pdf

Résumé : L’objet de cette thèse est l’étude des comportements mécanique et à la corrosion d’un nouveau système de fondation, dit pieux SPIRMEC, adapté aux structures légères. Le travail s’est focalisé sur deux grands aspects. Le premier aspect concerne l’analyse du comportement sous chargement axiale des pieux SPIRMEC sur la base de l’expérimentation et de la modélisation numérique dans un sol mou non cohésif. Quant au deuxième aspect, il traite du problème de la corrosion de l’acier constituant le pieu dans un environnement tropical humide. Le comportement des pieux SPIRMEC sous une charge axiale de traction, dans un sol fin non cohésif, a montré le développement d’une surface cylindrique de rupture. Celle-ci ne dépend pas de la configuration géométrique des pieux tel que : l’espacement S, le diamètre d’hélice Dh et le diamètre du tube d. En adoptant ce critère de rupture et à l’aide d’une analyse statistique des données, nous avons proposé quatre méthodes analytiques de prédiction de la capacité portante des pieux SPIRMEC à partir des essais in-situ et au laboratoire qui sont: •Méthode CPT basée sur la résistance de pointe pénétromètrique (essai CPT), •Méthode MPT basée sur la pression limite pressiomètrique (essai MPT), •Méthode du couple d’installation, •Méthode analytique basée sur les paramètres de cisaillement de sol notamment l’angle de frottement interne (essais triaxial et boîte de cisaillement). Ces méthodes tiennent compte de la géométrie du pieu, du procédé de mise en oeuvre et de la compacité du sol. L’analyse de performance des méthodes proposées a montré que les méthodes analytique et CPT représentent mieux le comportement des pieux testés. La modélisation numérique du comportement des pieux SPIRMEC sous charge axiale de traction a été également étudiée à l’aide du code de calcul Plaxis 2D. Un modèle axisymétrique a été adopté pour modéliser la géométrie de la structure. Le modèle de comportement hardening soil a été retenu pour modéliser le comportement élastoplastiq des couches de sol. Un modèle élastique linéaire a été retenu pour le pieu. Quant au comportement de l’interface sol-structure, il a été pris en compte par un modèle élastoplastique basé sur les critères de Mohr-Coulomb. L’expansion du sol résultant de l’installation des pieux a été approchée par une cavité cylindrique. Cette dernière a été modélisée par des déformations volumiques anisotropes. Nous avons constaté, qu’appliquer une déformation volumique de l’ordre de 40% permet une bonne concordance entre les résultats numériques et expérimentaux. L’étude paramétrique nous a également permis de constater l’existence d’une variation linéaire entre la capacité portante et l’espacement S. Le comportement de l’acier galvanisé dans le sol a été également étudié au moyen de trois approches: électrochimique, visuelles grâce au microscope électronique et gravimétrique. Les tests électrochimiques de corrosion du zinc ont été réalisés dans la solution de sol artificielle pour deux périodes bien distinctes : saison des pluies et après 8 mois de contact sol-pieu. Une forte dépendance est constatée de la vitesse de corrosion de zinc au pH et à la conductivité de la solution. La vitesse de corrosion est plus importante en saison des pluies qu’après 8 mois de contact de pieu avec le sol. Les fortes concentrations en sulfates semblent augmenter la vitesse de corrosion. Les analyses menées au MEB montrent que la zone de fluctuation de nappe et en surface externe (sol/air) sont les zones les plus corrodées. La comparaison entre les différentes techniques d’évaluation de la vitesse de corrosion a montré que l’eau de nappe peut être utilisée comme un milieu représentatif du profil chimique d’un sol non cohésif et légèrement granulaire.
The purpose of this thesis is to study the both behaviors mechanical and of the corrosion of a new foundation system, called spirec piles, for lightweight structures. The work was based on two main aspects. The first aspect concerns the analysis of behavior of the spirmec piles under axial loading on the basis of experimental and numerical modeling in a non-cohesive soft soil. On the second aspect, it addresses the problem of corrosion of steel forming the pile in a humid tropical environment. The behavior of the tested piles under axial traction load, in a non-cohesive soil, showed the development of a cylindrical surface of failure. This does not depend on the geometrical configuration of the tested piles such that: the spacing s, the helix diameter dh and the diameter of the shaft. By adopting this failure criterion and using statistical data analysis, we proposed four analytical methods for predicting the bearing capacity of the piles from in-situ and laboratory tests, which are: cpt method based on tip resistance penetrometer (cpt test), mpt method based on pressuremeter limit pressure (test mpt), method of installation torque and analytical method based on the shear parameters of soil (triaxial tests and shear box). These methods take into account the geometry of the pile, the method and implementation of soil compaction. Performance analysis of the proposed methods showed that the analytical methods and cpt represent better the behavior of piles tested. An axisymmetric condition was assumed to model this geometry in two-dimensional space. In this study, we proposed to model the pipe screw pile with plates elements available in plaxis 2d. The helixes were modeled as circular disks. Interface elements were incorporated along the pile to simulate the soil-pile interaction. Hardening soil model was chosen to describe the soil with drained behavior was assigned for all layers. Linear elastic for pile and elastic plastic model based on the mohr-coulomb criterion was used to describe the interface behavior. The lateral expansion generated by the pile shaft was modeled by anisotropic volumetric strains (ɛxx=ɛzz, ɛyy=0). The pile behavior under tensile loading at different volumetric strains, it is clear that the best fit was obtained at volumetric strain of 40%. The parametric study also allowed us to establish the existence of a linear variation between the bearing capacity and spacings. The behavior of the galvanized steel in the ground has also been studied using three approaches such as: electrochemical, microscopic imaging and gravimetrically. Electrochemical tests of the corrosion of the zinc have been made in artificial soil solution into two periods, the rainy season and after eight months of contact soil-pile. Is a strong dependence of the observed corrosion rate of the zinc at the ph and conductivity of the solution. The corrosion rate is higher in the rainy season compared to eight months of contact of the pile with soil. High sulfate concentrations increase the rate of corrosion. The meb analysis shows that the fluctuation zone of the water table is the most corroded area. Comparison between the different methods of evaluating the corrosion rate showed that the ground water may be used as a representative profile of the chemical environment of a non-cohesive soil and slightly granular.

http://www.theses.fr/2014AGUY0790/document

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Oxford University Press (OUP)
Résumé : Gravity data and P-wave teleseismic traveltime residuals from 29 temporary broad-band stations spread over the northern margin of the Gulf of Aden (Dhofar region, Oman) were used to image lithospheric structure. We apply a linear relationship between density and velocity to provide consistent density and velocity models from mid-crust down to about 250 km depth. The accuracy of the resulting models is investigated through a series of synthetic tests. The analysis of our resulting models shows: (1) crustal heterogeneities that match the main geological features at the surface; (2) the gravity edge effect and disparity in anomaly depth locations for layers at 20 and 50 km; (3) two low-velocity anomalies along the continuation of Socotra-Hadbeen and Alula-Fartak fracture zones between 60 and 200 km depth; and (4) evidence for partial melting (3-6 per cent) within these two negative anomalies. We discuss the presence of partial melting in terms of interaction between the Sheba ridge melts and its along-axis segmentation.
ISSN: 0956-540X

hal-00456048
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00456048
DOI : 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04438.x

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union
Résumé : International audience
We report measurements of long-period P wave polarization (P pol) in Australia and Tahiti made by combining modeling of the polarization deviation and harmonic analysis. The analysis of the deviation of the horizontal polarization of the P wave as a function of event back azimuth may be used to obtain information about (1) sensor misorientation, (2) dipping discontinuities, (3) seismic anisotropy, and (4) velocity heterogeneities beneath a seismic station. The results from harmonic analysis and a grid search using Snell's law suggest the presence of a dipping seismic discontinuity beneath stations CTAO and CAN in Australia. These results are consistent with published receiver function studies for these stations. The P pol fast axis orientation is close to the N–S absolute plate motion direction at station TAU (Tasmania), which may be due to plate-motion-driven alignment of olivine crystals in the asthenosphere. Interestingly, measurements of SKS splitting at Tahiti (French Polynesia) show an apparent isotropy, whereas an inversion of P pol observations at PPTL seismic station located in Tahiti suggests the presence of two anisotropic layers. The fast axis azimuth is oriented E–W in the upper layer, and it is close to the NW–SE orientation in the lower layer. Since P pol orientations are used for real-time earthquake locations, especially in poorly instrumented areas such as the South Pacific, we show that the bias from anisotropy and sensor misorientation determined here can be corrected to improve the location accuracy, which yields fundamental data for rapid location necessary for effective tsunami warning.
ISSN: 2169-9313

hal-01389113
http://hal.univ-reunion.fr/hal-01389113
http://hal.univ-reunion.fr/hal-01389113/document
http://hal.univ-reunion.fr/hal-01389113/file/Fontaine_Ppol_JGR2009.pdf
DOI : 10.1029/2008JB005709

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
4ème Rencontre des Jeunes Statisticiens
Aussois, France

hal-00628106
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00628106

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
The purpose of this article is to improve modeling of solar irradiance through the analysis of measurement data on the ground in the intertropical zone. For this, we identify, using information criteria, the probabilistic distributions introduced in two models of synthetic solar irradiance generation. We then validate the results by using the KL divergence and KSI parameter as comparison criteria between distributions arising from real and synthesized data. Our study confirms, for example, that the Gaussian classical distribution is not suitable for modeling solar irradiance, and we propose other more suitable statistical laws instead. The value of the identification procedure of the distribution laws presented in this article is that it ensures the production of solar irradiance data comparable in their statistical content to the measured data. Another advantage is that this procedure contributes to highlighting the time invariance of distribution laws representing the random terms. We conclude that this new information-criteria-based method permits the identification of the probability laws that best describe the statistical distributions introduced in models of synthetic solar irradiance generation.
ISSN: 0038-092X

meteo-01304572
https://hal-meteofrance.archives-ouvertes.fr/meteo-01304572
https://hal-meteofrance.archives-ouvertes.fr/meteo-01304572/document
https://hal-meteofrance.archives-ouvertes.fr/meteo-01304572/file/Manuscript_Hal.pdf
DOI : 10.1016/j.solener.2016.02.038

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
Introduction Evidence has accumulated that exposure to ambient air pollution during pregnancy may influence preterm birth (PTB) in urban settings. Conversely, this relation has barely been investigated in rural areas where individual characteristics (demographic, socioeconomic, and psychosocial factors) and environmental co-exposures may differ. Objective We examined the association between prenatal exposure to traffic-related air pollution and PTB among pregnant women from the PELAGIE mother–child cohort (Brittany, France, 2002–2006) living in urban (n=1550) and rural (n=959) settings. Methods Women’s residences were classified as either urban or rural according to the French census bureau rural–urban definitions. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations at home addresses were estimated from adjusted land-use regression models as a marker of traffic-related pollution. Associations between NO2 concentrations and PTB were assessed with logistic regression models. Results Prevalence of PTB was similar among women living in urban (3.2%) and in rural (3.5%) settings. More positive socioeconomic characteristics and health behaviors but more single-parent families were observed among urban women. NO2 exposure averaged 20.8±6.6 µg m−3 for women residing in urban areas and 18.8±5.6 µg m−3 for their rural counterparts. A statistically significant increased risk of PTB was observed among women exposed to NO2 concentrations ≥16.4 µg m−3 and residing in urban areas but not among their rural counterparts. Discussion The results of this study, conducted in a region with interspersed urban–rural areas, are in line with previous findings suggesting an increased risk of PTB associated with higher NO2 concentrations for women living in urban areas. The absence of association among their rural counterparts for whom exposure levels were similar suggests that environmental mixtures and psychosocial inequalities might play a role in this heterogeneity
ISSN: 0013-9351

hal-01165108
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01165108
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01165108/document
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01165108/file/Air%20pollution%20%26%20preterm%20birth%20PELAGIE_HAL-accepted.pdf
PUBMED : 26092808

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Presses Universitaires de Louvain (distribution I6DOC/CIACO)
Résumé : In French. 10 pages, 5 figures, LaTeX 2e using EPSF and custom package taln2006.sty (designed by Pierre Zweigenbaum, ATALA). Proceedings of the 13th annual French-speaking conference on Natural Language Processing: `Traitement Automatique des Langues Naturelles' (TALN 2006), Louvain (Leuven), Belgium, 10-13 April 2003
National audience
We propose a theoretical framework within which information on the vocabulary of a given corpus can be inferred on the basis of statistical information gathered on that corpus. Inferences can be made on the categories of the words in the vocabulary, and on their syntactical properties within particular languages. Based on the same statistical data, it is possible to build matrices of syntagmatic similarity (bigram transition matrices) or paradigmatic similarity (probability for any pair of words to share common contexts). When clustered with respect to their syntagmatic similarity, words tend to group into sublanguage vocabularies, and when clustered with respect to their paradigmatic similarity, into syntactic or semantic classes. Experiments have explored the first of these two possibilities. Their results are interpreted in the frame of a Markov chain modelling of the corpus' generative processe(s): we show that the results of a spectral analysis of the transition matrix can be interpreted as probability distributions of words within clusters. This method yields a soft clustering of the vocabulary into sublanguages which contribute to the generation of heterogeneous corpora. As an application, we show how multilingual texts can be visually segmented into linguistically homogeneous segments. Our method is specifically useful in the case of related languages which happened to be mixed in corpora.
Verbum ex machina : Actes de la 13ème conférence annuelle sur le Traitement Automatique des Langues Naturelles
Louvain (Leuven), Belgium

hal-00327607
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00327607
ARXIV : 0810.1212

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier Masson
Résumé : While oceanic circulation in the Gulf of Lion (GoL) has often been studied in calm weather or with northerly winds (Tramontane or Mistral) through observations and numerical circulation models, few studies have focused on southeasterly storm events. Yet, correct representation of the circulation during storms is crucial if the suspension of sediments is to be correctly modelled throughout the Gulf. The purpose of this paper is to describe the hydrodynamics in the Gulf of Aigues-Mortes (NW of the GoL) during the storm of 18 February 2007 by using a set of data from an ADCP station placed at a depth of 65 m on the sea bed off the coast at Sète, supplemented by the ocean circulation model SYMPHONIE. This storm was characterized by a moderate south-easterly wind (15 m . s−1) and waves of up to 5 m of significant height at its apex. At the ADCP, strong currents of up to 0.8 m . s−1 near the surface and 0.5 m . s−1 near the bottom were recorded, parallel to the coast, flowing towards the south-west. The simulated currents were widely underestimated, even taking the effect of waves into account in the model. It was suspected that the representation of the wind in the atmospheric model was an underestimation. A new simulation was therefore run with an arbitrarily chosen stronger wind and its results were in much better agreement with the measurements. A simplified theoretical analysis successfully isolated the wind-induced processes, responsible for the strong currents measured during the apex and the strong vertical shear that occurred at the beginning of the storm. These processes were: 1/ the barotropic geostrophic current induced by a wind parallel to the coast and 2/ the Ekman spiral. The duration of the storm (about 36 h at the apex) explains the continuous increase of the current as predicted by the theory. The frictionally induced Ekman transport explains the current shear in the surface layer in the rising stage of the storm, and the addition of high waves and strong wind at the apex is more in favour of strong vertical mixing in the surface layer.
ISSN: 1631-0713

hal-00908200
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00908200
DOI : 10.1016/j.crte.2013.07.001

Éditeur(s) : Amer Geophysical Union
Résumé : On November 21, 2004, a magnitude 6.3 earthquake occurred offshore, 10 km south of Les Saintes archipelago in Guadeloupe (French West Indies). There were more than 30000 aftershocks recorded in the following two years, most of them at shallow depth near the islands of the archipelago. The main shock and its main aftershock of February 14, 2005 (M-w = 5.8) ruptured a NE-dipping normal fault (Roseau fault), mapped and identified as active from high-resolution bathymetric data a few years before. This fault belongs to an arc-parallel en echelon fault system that follows the inner edge of the northern part of the Lesser Antilles arc, accommodating the sinistral component of oblique convergence between the North American and Caribbean plates. The distribution of aftershocks and damage (destruction and landslides) are consistent with the main fault plane location and attitude. The slip model of the main shock, obtained by inverting jointly global broadband and local strong motion records, is characterized by two main slip zones located 5 to 10 km to the SE and NW of the hypocenter. The main shock is shown to have increased the Coulomb stress at the tips of the ruptured plane by more than 4 bars where most of the aftershocks occurred, implying that failures on fault system were mainly promoted by static stress changes. The earthquake also had an effect on volcanic activity since the Boiling Lake in Dominica drained twice, probably as a result of the extensional strain induced by the earthquake and its main aftershock.
Journal Of Geophysical Research-solid Earth (0148-0227) (Amer Geophysical Union), 2011-10 , Vol. 116 , N. B10301 , P. 1-25

Droits : Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00200/31099/29511.pdf
DOI:10.1029/2011JB008310
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00200/31099/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD AGU and the Geochemical Society
Résumé : International audience
We image the lithospheric and upper asthenospheric structure of western continental Yemen with 24 broadband stations to evaluate the role of the Afar plume on the evolution of the continental margin and its extent eastwards along the Gulf of Aden. We use teleseismic tomography to compute relative P-wave velocity variations in southwestern Yemen down to 300 km depth. Published receiver function analysis suggest a dramatic and localized thinning of the crust in the vicinity of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, consistent with the velocity structure that we retrieve in our model. The mantle part of the model is dominated by the presence of a low velocity anomaly in which we infer partial melting just below thick Oligocene flood basalts and recent off-axis volcanic events (from 15 Ma to present). This low velocity anomaly could correspond to an abnormally hot mantle and could be responsible for dynamic topography and recent magmatism in western Yemen. Our new P-wave velocity model beneath western Yemen suggests the young rift flank volcanoes beneath margins and on the flanks of the Red Sea rift are caused by focused small-scale diapiric upwelling from a broad region of hot mantle beneath the area. Our work shows that relatively hot mantle, along with partial melting of the mantle, can persist beneath rifted margins after breakup has occurred.
ISSN: 1525-2027

hal-01015496
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01015496
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01015496/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01015496/file/Korostelev_etal_GGG_2014.pdf
DOI : 10.1002/2014GC005316

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
Calculation of seismic risks in a zone are based on stochastic models describing at best the seismic activity. Our focus is the spatio-temporal evolution of the probability of earthquake occurrences. The main modelling tool is the theory of the point processes. We discuss about the spatio-temporal extension of ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence) with marks and study the properties of the log-likelihood and the maximum likelihood estimators. Seismic data from the Lesser Antilles Arc carried out between 1999 and 2004 are analyzed.
39th Annual Meeting of the Statistical Society of Canada
Wolfville, Canada

hal-00601513
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00601513