Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology
Résumé : International audience
Background: We used evolutionary analysis of alkaline phosphatase (tissue nonspecific alkaline phosphatase, TNSALP) to predict missense mutations leading to hypophosphatasia. Results: We found 469 sensitive positions and validated 99% of the 204 known mutations. Conclusion: It is a more powerful method than in silico models to validate missense mutations in TNSALP. Significance: Such an approach should be widely used to support genetic diagnostics. ALPL encodes the tissue nonspecific alkaline phosphatase (TNSALP), which removes phosphate groups from various substrates. Its function is essential for bone and tooth mineralization. In humans, ALPL mutations lead to hypophosphatasia, a genetic disorder characterized by defective bone and/or tooth mineralization. To date, 275 ALPL mutations have been reported to cause hypophosphatasia, of which 204 were simple missense mutations. Molecular evolutionary analysis has proved to be an efficient method to highlight residues important for the protein function and to predict or validate sensitive positions for genetic disease. Here we analyzed 58 mammalian TNSALP to identify amino acids unchanged, or only substituted by residues sharing similar properties, through 220 millions years of mammalian evolution. We found 469 sensitive positions of the 524 residues of human TNSALP, which indicates a highly constrained protein. Any substitution occurring at one of these positions is predicted to lead to hypophosphatasia. We tested the 204 missense mutations resulting in hypophosphatasia against our predictive chart, and validated 99% of them. Most sensitive positions were located in functionally important regions of TNSALP (active site, homodimeric interface, crown domain, calcium site, ...). However, some important positions are located in regions, the structure and/or biological function of which are still unknown. Our chart of sensitive positions in human TNSALP (i) enables to validate or invalidate at low cost any ALPL mutation, which would be suspected to be responsible for hypophosphatasia, by contrast with time consuming and expensive functional tests, and (ii) displays higher predictive power than in silico models of prediction.
ISSN: 0021-9258

hal-01545479
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01545479
DOI : 10.1074/jbc.M114.576843

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
Semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) partition indoors between the gas phase, airborne particles, settled dust, and other surfaces. Unknown concentrations of SVOCs in the gas phase (Cg) can be predicted from their measured concentrations in airborne particles. In previous studies, the prediction of Cg depended largely on choosing a specific equation for the calculation of the particle/gas partition coefficient. Moreover, the prediction of Cg is frequently performed at a reference temperature rather than the real indoor temperature. In this paper, a probabilistic approach based on Monte Carlo simulation was developed to predict the distribution of SVOCs' Cg from their concentrations in airborne particles at the target indoor temperature. Moreover, the distribution of the particle/gas partition coefficient of each SVOC at the target temperature was used. The approach was validated using two measured datasets in the literature: the predicted Cg from concentrations measured in airborne particles and the measured Cg were generally of the same order of magnitude. The distributions of the Cg of 66 SVOCs in the French housing stock were then predicted. The SVOCs with the highest median Cg, ranging from 1 ng/m3 to > 100 ng/m3, included 8 phthalates (DEP, DiBP, DBP, DEHP, BBP, DMP, DiNP, and DMEP), 4 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (fluorene, phenanthrene, fluoranthene, and anthracene), 2 alkylphenols (4-tert-butylphenol and 4-tert-octylphenol), 2 synthetic musks (galaxolide and tonalide), tributyl phosphate, and heptachlor. The nationwide, representative, predicted Cg values of SVOCs are frequently of the same order of magnitude in Europe and North America, whereas these Cg values in Chinese and Indian dwellings and the Cg of polybrominated diphenyl ethers in U.S. dwellings are generally higher. © 2016 Elsevier B.V.
Science of the Total Environment

hal-01467547
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01467547
DOI : 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.074
PUBMED : 27788447

Éditeur(s) : Ecole nationale supérieure agronomique de Rennes
Résumé : Describe and gain understanding on fluctuations in animal population over time and space is a central goal of population ecology. This is also crucial to ensure the sustainable management of exploited resources, particularly those with complex population dynamics such as the bluefin tuna. The goal of this work is to collect bluefin tuna catches from the ancestral Mediterranean and Atlantic trap fisheries to (i) characterise long-term fluctuations in bluefin tuna population migrating in the Mediterranean, (ii) analyse their causes et (iii) assess their implications for fisheries management. The bluefin tuna main biological and ecological characteristics are first detailed. Then, the first part presents the trap fishery, and the process of collect and validation of the historical catches. This leads to develop a data base of 54 time-series more than 20 years long, the longest ones spanning about four centuries. Mean historical catches were around 15 000 tons/year ([7 000;25 000]). Time-series are analysed in a second part. Temporal variability of trap catches may be decomposed in three components: 100-year-long periodic fluctuations, 20-year cycles and inter-annual variations. These medium- to long-term fluctuations, representing more than 50% of the variability in the time-series, were synchronous all around the western Mediterranean and adjacent North Atlantic. In contrast, short-term variability was synchronous at a local scale only. It is argued that long-term fluctuations in trap catches could be considered as a proxy for those in abundance, and a synthetic time-series is computed to depict them. Biological and ecological processes that could cause such long-term fluctuations are discussed in a third part. We tested whether long-term fluctuations in Atlantic bluefin tuna might be related to large-scale environmental changes, using long time-series of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Length of the Day index (LOD, a proxy of the atmospheric circulation index ACI) and the temperature. Spectral analyses of trap catches, LOD and temperature displayed similar spectra with peak at low frequency, whereas those of the NAO exhibited a broad band spectrum. Regression analyses and tests of correlation did not reveal any clear relationship between trap catches on the one hand and NAO and LOD on the other hand. In contrast, long-term fluctuations in trap catches appear to be negatively and significantly related to long-term trends in temperature. Underlying processes that could explain such a relationship are discussed, with special focus on changes in migration patterns. Finally, implications of such fluctuations in term of fisheries management are discussed in a fourth part. A simulation framework, in which a simulated population dynamics model is coupled with a VPA, is built to test the pertinence of the diagnostic of stock assessment according to different scenarios on fluctuations origins and population status. In the hypothesis of fluctuations linked to variations in the recruitment, VPA appears able to reconstruct the fluctuations but the predictions may be biased if natural fluctuations are not taking into account. In the hypothesis of fluctuations linked to changes in migration pattern, VPA is not able to reconstruct the population dynamics. In a precautionary approach, quotas which follow may be unsuitable in the best case, at worst dangerous if they are defined in comparison with a reference point. The concept of cible reference points, fixe and unique over time, appears not relevant for bluefin tuna; estimate trajectory reference pertinent may prove to be more pertinent.
Décrire et comprendre les fluctuations spatio-temporelles des espèces animales constituent les enjeux majeurs de l'écologie. La question est également cruciale pour réussir la gestion durable des ressources exploitées, en particulier celle du thon rouge, grand pélagique migrateur à la dynamique complexe. L'objectif de ce travail est de collecter les captures historiques de thon rouge par les madragues méditerranéennes et proche atlantiques pour (i) caractériser les fluctuations à long terme de la population migrante en Méditerranée, (ii) étudier leur déterminisme et (iii) évaluer leurs implications en terme de gestion des pêcheries. Après avoir décrit les principales caractéristiques biologiques et écologiques du thon rouge, la première partie présente la pêcherie à la madrague, puis le processus de collecte et de validation des données historiques de captures. Ce dernier conduit à la mise en place d'une base de données de 54 séries de plus de 20 ans, dont les plus longues s'étendent sur près de 4 siècles. Les productions historiques sont estimées à environ 15 000 tonnes/an ([7 000;25 000]). Les séries historiques de captures sont analysées dans la seconde partie. Leur variabilité temporelle peut être décomposée en trois composantes : de larges cycles pseudo-séculaires, des variations périodiques d'une vingtaine d'années et des fluctuations inter-annuelles. Les fluctuations à moyen et long terme, expliquant plus de la moitié de la variance des séries, sont synchrones à l'échelle du bassin méditerranéen occidental et du proche Atlantique. La variabilité inter-annuelle, en revanche, n'est synchrone qu'à une échelle locale. On montre finalement que les fluctuations à long terme des captures peuvent être considérées comme de bons indices des tendances des abondances de la population de thons rouges migrants en Méditerranée. Une série synthétique est construite pour les décrire. Les processus biologiques et écologiques susceptibles d'être à l'origine de ces fluctuations sont discutés dans la troisième partie. L'hypothèse d'un forçage environnemental à grande échelle est testée en utilisant des indices à long terme de l'Oscillation Nord Atlantique (NAO), de la longueur du jour (LOD, un indicateur de l'indice de circulation atmosphérique ACI) et de la température. Les analyses spectrales sur les séries de captures, du LOD et des températures révèlent des spectres similaires, avec un pic sur les basses fréquences, alors que celles sur le NAO conduisent à une large bande spectrale. Les régressions et les tests de corrélations ne montrent aucune relation significative entre les captures par les madragues et le NAO et le LOD. En revanche, les fluctuations à long terme des captures apparaissent significativement et négativement corrélées avec les fluctuations à long terme des températures. Les processus sous-jacents susceptibles d'expliquer une telle relation, en particulier des changements migratoires, sont discutés. Finalement, les implications des fluctuations pour la gestion de la pêcherie sont discutées dans une quatrième partie. Un cadre de simulation, couplant un modèle de dynamique de population à une VPA, est élaboré pour tester la pertinence des diagnostics d'évaluation de stock selon différents scénarios d'origine des fluctuations et d'état de la population. Dans l'hypothèse de fluctuations liées à des variations du recrutement, la VPA apparaît capable de reconstruire les fluctuations mais les prédictions sont biaisées lorsqu'il n'est pas tenu compte des fluctuations naturelles du stock. Dans l'hypothèse de fluctuations liées à des changements migratoires, la VPA est alors incapable de reproduire la dynamique de la population. Dans une approche de précaution, les quotas qui en découlent peuvent se révéler au mieux inappropriés, au pire dangereux s'ils sont définis par rapport à un point de référence. Ce concept de point cible, fixe et unique dans le temps, apparaît inapproprié pour le thon rouge ; estimer des "trajectoires de référence" serait sans doute plus pertinent.

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2003/these-65.pdf
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/65/

Éditeur(s) : Wiley
Résumé : This paper investigates some economic consequences of creating a marine reserve on both fishing and ecotourism, when the range of controllability of fishing effort is limited and the impact of the reserve on ecosystem is considered. The issue is illustrated by the example of creating a no-take zone in part of a region where fishing is managed through a limited entry license system, and which is inhabited by two interacting stocks: a stock of prey (fish) and a stock of predators (seals). While the former is targeted by commercial fishing, the latter is not subject to harvest but is a potential basis for a commercial non-extractive activity (seal watching). Analysis is conducted with the help of a bioeconomic model combining the features of marine reserve modeling and of multispecies modeling. Following a description of the model, results of several simulation runs are presented. These show that creating a marine reserve has more complex economic implications than predicted in studies focused exclusively on one stock and/or commercial fisheries. More specifically, the model shows that the dynamics of the two interacting stocks reduces the benefits of the no-take zone for the fishing industry, while it makes the creation of this zone provide an opportunity for the development of ecotourism. Due to this dynamics, the model suggests that the optimal size of the reserve is larger when ecotourism is taken into account along with fishing activities.
Natural Resource Modeling (1939-7445) (Wiley), 2002-12 , Vol. 15 , N. 4 , P. 387–411

Droits : 2002 Rocky Mountain Mathematics Consortium
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00244/35506/34010.pdf
DOI:10.1111/j.1939-7445.2002.tb00095.x
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00244/35506/

Éditeur(s) : Elsevier
Résumé : Phosphorus forms with respect to sediment characteristics, such as grain-size, and major chemical elements, were studied in French coastal marine areas (the Bay of Seine and the Loire and Gironde Estuaries).In the three areas, Fe/Al-bound phosphate (Fe/Al-P) and exchangeable phosphate (exch-P) were significantly related to the proportion of fine fraction (< 63 mum). The special association of these forms with fine particles, as well as the relationships between exch-P, Fe/Al-P and Fe showed that adsorption processes on Fe oxides had taken place. However, for similar Fe concentrations, Bay of Seine sediments showed Fe/Al-P concentrations which were four to five times higher than those found in the Loire and Gironde Estuaries. This was attributed to differences in sediment nature and processes in these two types of areas. Indeed, the Loire and Gironde Estuaries frequently show hypoxia.Calcium-bound phosphate (Ca-P) was found in all grain size classes with comparable concentrations in the Bay of Seine where there was no correlation between Ca-P and Ca. This corresponded to the calcium's marine origin (shells) in the Bay of Seine. In contrast, the correlation of Ca-P with Ca and the fine fraction of the sediment in the Loire and Gironde Estuaries was characteristic of the predominant metamorphic origin of Ca-P in these areas.Useful information for interpretation of P-forms can be obtained from major sediment characteristics. Thus, for areas where specific relationships have previously been established good estimates of P-forms could be predicted from sediment properties.
Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science (0272-7714) (Elsevier), 2001-05 , Vol. 52 , N. 5 , P. 617-629

Droits : 2001 Academic Press. All rights reserved
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2001/publication-469.pdf
DOI:10.1006/ecss.2001.0766
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/469/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
In petroleum industry, the difference between pore pressure (Pp) and minimum horizontal stress Sh (termed the seal or retention capacity) is of major consideration because it is often assumed to represent how close a system is to hydraulic failure and thus the maximum hydrocarbon column height that can be maintained. While Sh and Pp are often considered to be independent parameters, several studies in the last decade have demonstrated that Sh and Pp are in fact coupled. However, the nature of this coupling relationship remains poorly understood. In this paper, we explore the influences of the spatial pore pressure distribution on Sh/Pp coupling and then on failure pressure predictions and trap integrity evaluation. With analytical models, we predict the fluid pressure sustainable within a reservoir before failure of its overpressured shale cover. We verify our analytical predictions with experiments involving analogue materials and fluids. We show that hydraulic fracturing and seal breach occur for fluid pressure greater than it would be expected from conventional retention capacity. This can be explained by the impact of the fluid overpressure field in the overburden and the pressure diffusion around the reservoir on the principal stresses. We calculate that supralithostatic pressure could locally be reached in overpressured covers. We also define the retention capacity of a cover (RC) surrounding a fluid source or reservoir as the difference between the failure pressure and the fluid overpressure prevailing in shale at the same depth. In response to a localized fluid pressure rise, we show that the retention capacity does not only depend on the pore fluid overpressure of the overburden but also on the tensile strength of the cover, its Poisson's ratio, and the depth and width of the fluid source.
ISSN: 0264-8172

hal-00590497
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00590497
DOI : 10.1016/j.marpetgeo.2010.08.007

Éditeur(s) : Elsevier Sci Ltd
Résumé : The aim of this study is to establish a baseline for poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) (PHBV) lifetime prediction in a marine environment, by means of mechanical and physico-chemical characterization of specimens immersed in continuously renewed and filtered natural seawater in the laboratory at different temperatures (4, 25 and 40°C). Samples were also aged at sea in Lorient harbour in order to compare laboratory and natural degradation mechanisms and kinetics. Due to its morphology, hydrolysis of PHBV in natural seawater is quite slow, and samples were observed to undergo preferentially an enzymatic surface degradation. Increasing the aging temperature in the laboratory promotes the water uptake and causes hydrolysis. As two degradation mechanisms occur in parallel, the choice of test conditions is critical, and the lifetime of PHBV in a marine environment is difficult to predict accurately.
Polymer Degradation And Stability (0141-3910) (Elsevier Sci Ltd), 2014-07 , Vol. 105 , P. 237-247

Droits : 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00188/29972/28425.pdf
DOI:10.1016/j.polymdegradstab.2014.04.026
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00188/29972/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union
Résumé : International audience
The brittle to ductile transition (BDT) in rocks may strongly influence their transport properties (i.e., permeability, porosity topology ...) and the maximum depth and temperature where hydrothermal fluids may circulate. To examine this transition in the context of Icelandic crust, we conducted deformation experiments on a glassy basalt (GB) and a glass-free basalt (GFB) under oceanic crust conditions. Mechanical and micro-structural observations at a constant strain rate of 10(-5) s(-1) and at confining pressure of 100-300 MPa indicate that the rocks are brittle and dilatant up to 700-800 degrees C. At higher temperatures and effective pressures the deformation mode becomes macroscopically ductile, i.e., deformation is distributed throughout the sample and no localized shear rupture plane develops. The presence of glass is a key component reducing the sample strength and lowering the pressure of the BDT. In the brittle field, strength is consistent with a Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion with an internal coefficient of friction of 0.42 for both samples. In the ductile field, strength is strain rate-and temperature-dependent and both samples were characterized by the same stress exponent in the range 3 < n < 4.2 but by very different activation energy Q(GB) = 59 +/- 15 KJ/mol and Q(GFB) = 456 +/- 4 KJ/mol. Extrapolation of these results to the Iceland oceanic crust conditions predicts a BDT at similar to 100 degrees C for a glassy basalt, whereas the BDT might occur in non-glassy basalts at deeper conditions, i.e., temperatures higher than 550 +/- 100 degrees C, in agreement with the Icelandic seismogenic zone.
ISSN: 0148-0227

hal-00760905
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00760905
DOI : 10.1029/2011JB008884

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Ecological Society of America
Résumé : Tropical plant diversity is extraordinarily high at both local and regional scales. Many studies have demonstrated that natural enemies maintain local diversity via negative density dependence, but we know little about how natural enemies influence beta-diversity across habitats and/or regions. One way herbivores could influence plant beta-diversity is by driving allocation trade-offs that promote habitat specialization across resource gradients. We therefore predicted that increasing resource availability should be accompanied by increasing herbivory rates and decreasing plant allocation to defense. Second, relative abundances within plant lineages are predicted to reflect patterns of habitat specialization and allocation trade-offs. A phylogenetic context is vital not only to compare homologous plant traits (including defense strategies) across habitat types, but also to connect evolutionary trade-offs to patterns of species diversification in each phylogenetic lineage. We tested these predictions for trees in white-sand, clay terra firme, and seasonally flooded forests in Peru and French Guiana that represent the range of soil fertility, forest structure, and floristic compositions found throughout the Amazon region. We established 74 0.5-ha plots in these habitats and sampled all trees. Within 12 representative plots we marked newly expanding leaves of 394 saplings representing 68 species, including the most abundant species in each plot in addition to species from five focal lineages: Swartzia and Inga (Fabaceae), Protieae (Burseracaeae), Bombacoideae (Malvaceae), and Micropholis (Sapotaceae). We measured total leaf production rates for each sapling and calculated relative herbivory impact as the ratio between herbivory rate and leaf production rate. Herbivory rates averaged 2.1% per month, did not correlate with leaf production rate, and were similar across habitats. Relative herbivore impacts exceeded leaf production rates for most species. Leaf production rate averaged 2.8%, was significantly higher in seasonally flooded forests than the other two habitats, and exhibited significant correlations with specific leaf area. Species with high herbivory rates exhibited significantly lower relative abundances in terra firme forests. Overall, focal species within lineages present contrasting patterns regarding their herbivory rates and leaf production rate within habitats. These results highlight why a lineage-based approach is necessary when attempting to connect hypotheses regarding evolutionary trade-offs to community assembly patterns.
ISSN: 0012-9658

hal-01032418
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01032418

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : International audience
BOI1 and BOI2 are paralogs important for the actin cytoskeleton andpolar growth. BOI1 encodes a meiotic transcript isoform with an extended5-untranslated region predicted to impair protein translation. It is,however, unknown how the isoform is repressed during mitosis, and ifBoi1 is present during sporulation. By interpreting microarray data fromMATa cells, MATa/ cells, a starving MAT/ control, and a meiosis-impairedrrp6 mutant, we classified BOI1's extended isoform as earlymeiosis-specific. These results were confirmed by RNA-Sequencing, andextended by a 5-RACE assay and Northern blotting, showing that meioticcells induce the long isoform while the mitotic isoform remainsdetectable during meiosis. We provide evidence via motif predictions, anin vivo binding assay and genetic experiments that the Rpd3/Sin3/Ume6histone deacetylase complex, which represses meiotic genes duringmitosis, also prevents the induction of BOI1's 5-extended isoform inmitosis by direct binding of Ume6 to its URS1 target. Finally, we findthat Boi1 protein levels decline when cells switch from fermentation torespiration and sporulation. The histone deacetylase Rpd3 is conserved,and eukaryotic genes frequently encode transcripts with variable 5-UTRs.Our findings are therefore relevant for regulatory mechanisms involvedin the control of transcript isoforms in multi-cellular organisms.
ISSN: 0950-382X

hal-01122120
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01122120
DOI : 10.1111/mmi.12976
PUBMED : 25708805

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
Talc is a hydrous magnesium rich layered silicate that is widely disseminated in the Earth from the seafloor to over 100 km depth, in ultra-high pressure metamorphism of oceanic crust. In this paper we determine the single crystal elastic constants at pressures from 0 to 12 GPa of talc triclinic (C 1¯) and monoclinic (C2/c) polytypes using ab initio methods. We find that talc has an extraordinarily high elastic anisotropy at zero pressure that reduces with increasing pressure. The exceptional anisotropy is complemented by a negative Poisson's ratio for many directions in crystal space. Calculations show that talc is not only one of very few common minerals to exhibit auxetic behaviour, but the magnitude of this effect may be the largest reported so far for a mineral. The compression (Vp) and shear (Vs) wave velocity anisotropy is 80% and 85% for the triclinic polytype. At pressures where talc is known be stable in the Earth (up to 5 GPa) the Vp and Vs anisotropy is reduced to about 40% for both velocities, which is still a very high value. Vp is slow parallel to the c-axis and fast perpendicular to it. This remains unchanged with increasing pressure and is observed in both polytypes. The shear wave splitting (difference between fast and slow S-wave velocities) at low pressure has high values in the plane normal to the c-axis, with a maximum near the alow asterisk-axis in the triclinic and the b-axis in the monoclinic polytype. The c-axis is the direction of minimum splitting. The pattern of shear wave splitting does not change significantly with pressure. The volume fraction of talc varies between 11 and 41% for hydrated mantle rocks, but the lack of data on the crystallographic preferred orientation (CPO) precludes a detailed analysis of the impact of talc on seismic anisotropy in subduction zones. However, it is highly likely that CPO can easily develop in zones of deformation due to the platy habit of talc crystals. For random aggregates of talc, the isotropic Vp, Vs and Vp/Vs ratio have significantly lower values than those of antigorite and may explain low-velocity regions in the mantle wedge. Vp/Vs ratios are more complex in anisotropic media because there are fast and slow S-waves, resulting in Vp/Vs1 and Vp/Vs2 ratios for every propagation direction, making interpretation difficult in deformed polycrystalline talc with a CPO. Talc on the subduction plate boundary can strongly influence guided wave velocity as CPO would develop in this region of intense shearing. The very low coefficient of friction (< 0.1) of talc above 100 °C could also explain silent earthquakes at shallow depths (ca 30 km) along the subduction plate boundaries, frequently responsible for tsunami.
ISSN: 0012-821X

hal-00411481
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00411481
DOI : 10.1016/j.epsl.2008.07.047

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD springer
Résumé : International audience
In this paper, we address the problem of flood prediction in complex situations. We present an original solution in order to achieve the main goals of accuracy, flexibility and readability. We propose the SM2D modular data driven approach that provides predictive models for each sub-process of a global hydrological process. We show that this solution improves the predictive accuracy regarding a global approach. The originality of our proposition is threefold: (1) the predictive model is defined as a set of aggregate variables that act as classifiers, (2) an evolutionary technique is implemented to find best juries of such classifiers and (3) the flood process complexity problem is addressed by searching for sub-models on sub-processes identified partly by spatial criteria. The solution has proved to perform well on flash flood phenomena of tropical areas known to be hardly predictable. It was indeed successfully applied on a real caribbean river dataset after both preprocessing and preliminary analysis steps presented in the paper.
Lecture notes in computer science
Singapour, Singapore

hal-00878780
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00878780
DOI : 10.1007/978-3-642-40897-7_13

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : [b]1.[/b] Plant functional traits, in particular specific leaf area (SLA), wood density and seed mass, are often good predictors of individual tree growth rates within communities. Individuals and species with high SLA, low wood density and small seeds tend to have faster growth rates.[br/][br/][b]2.[/b] If community-level relationships between traits and growth have general predictive value, then similar relationships should also be observed in analyses that integrate across taxa, biogeographic regions and environments. Such global consistency would imply that traits could serve as valuable proxies for the complex suite of factors that determine growth rate, and, therefore, could underpin a new generation of robust dynamic vegetation models. Alternatively, growth rates may depend more strongly on the local environment or growth–trait relationships may vary along environmental gradients.[br/][br/][b]3.[/b] We tested these alternative hypotheses using data on 27 352 juvenile trees, representing 278 species from 27 sites on all forested continents, and extensive functional trait data, 38% of which were obtained at the same sites at which growth was assessed. Data on potential evapotranspiration (PET), which summarizes the joint ecological effects of temperature and precipitation, were obtained from a global data base.[br/][br/][b]4.[/b] We estimated size-standardized relative height growth rates (SGR) for all species, then related them to functional traits and PET using mixed-effect models for the fastest growing species and for all species together.[br/][br/][b]5.[/b] Both the mean and 95th percentile SGR were more strongly associated with functional traits than with PET. PET was unrelated to SGR at the global scale. SGR increased with increasing SLA and decreased with increasing wood density and seed mass, but these traits explained only 3.1% of the variation in SGR. SGR–trait relationships were consistently weak across families and biogeographic zones, and over a range of tree statures. Thus, the most widely studied functional traits in plant ecology were poor predictors of tree growth over large scales.[br/][br/][b]6.[/b] Synthesis. We conclude that these functional traits alone may be unsuitable for predicting growth of trees over broad scales. Determining the functional traits that predict vital rates under specific environmental conditions may generate more insight than a monolithic global relationship can offer.
ISSN: 0022-0477

hal-01204226
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01204226
DOI : 10.1111/1365-2745.12401
PRODINRA : 307144

Résumé : Les travaux de recherche présentés dans ce mémoire s'inscrivent dans la lignée des approches de modélisation hydrologiques prédictives dirigées par les données. Nous avons particulièrement développé leur application sur le contexte difficile des phénomènes de crue éclairs caractéristiques des bassins versants de la région Caraïbe qui pose un dé fi sé.curi taire. En envisageant le problème de la prévision de crues comme un problème d'optimisation combinatoire difficile nous proposons d'utiliser la notion de métaneuristiques, à travers les algorithmes évolutionnaire notamment pour leur capacité à parcourir efficacement de grands espaces de recherche et fi fournir des solutions de bOlIDe qualité en des temps d'exécution raisonnables. Nous avons présenté l'approche de prédiction AV2D : Aggregate Variable Data Driven dom le concept central est la notion de variable agrégée. L'idée sous-jacente à ce concept est de considérer le pouvoir prédictif de nouvelles variables définies comme le résultat de fonctions tatistiques, dites d'agrégation calculées sur de donnée' correspondant à des périodes de temps précédent uo événem nt à prédire. Ces variable sont caractérisées par des ensembles de paramètres correspondant a leur pJ:opriétés. Nous avons imroduitle variables agrégées hydrométéorologiques permettant de répondre au problème de la classification d événements hydrologiques. La complexité du parcours de l'espace de recherche engendré par les paramètres définissant ces variables a été prise en compte grâce à la njse en oeuvre d'un algorithme évolutionnaire particulier dont les composants ont été spécifiquement définis pour ce problème. Nous avons montré, à travers une étude comparative avec d'autres approches de modélisation dirigées par les données, menée sur deux cas d'études de bassins versant caribéens, que l'approche AV2D est particulièrement bien adaptée à leur contexte. Nous étudions par la suite les bénéfices offerts par les approches de modélisation hydrologiques modulaires dirigées par les données, en définissant un procédé de division en sous-processus prenant en compte les caractéristiques paniculières des bassins versants auxquels nous nous intéressons. Nou avons proposé une extension des travaux précédents à travers la définition d'une approche de modélisation modulaire M2D: Spatial Modular Data Driven, consistant à considérer des sous-processus en divisant l'ensemble des exemples à classifier en sous-ensembles correspondant à des comportements hydrologiques homogènes. Nous avons montré à travers une étude comparative avec d autres approches dU'igées par les données mises en oeuvre sur les mêmes sous-ensembles de données que celte approche permet d améliorer les résultats de prédiction particulièrement à coun Lenne. Nous avons enfin proposé la modélisation d un outil de pi
The work presented in this thesis is in the area of data-driven hydrological modeling approaches. We particularly investigared their application on the difficult problem of flash flood phenomena typically observed in Caribbean watersheds. By considering the problem of flood prediction as a combinatorial optimization problem, we propose to use the notion of Oleraheuristics, through evolutionary algorithms, especially for their capacity ta visit effjciently large search space and to provide good solutions in reasonable execution times. We proposed the hydrological prediction approach AV2D: Aggregate Variable Data Driven which central concept is the notion of aggregate variable. The underlying idea of this [concept is to consider the predictive power of new variables defined as the results of statistical functions, called aggregation functions, computed on data corresponding ta time periods before an event ta predict. These variables are characterized by sets of parameters corresponding ta their specifications. We introduced hydro-meteorological aggregate variables allowing ta address the classification problem of hydrological events. We showed through a comparative study on two typical caribbean watersheds, using several common data driven modelling techniques that the AV2D approach is panicul.rly weil fitted ta the studied context. We also study the benefits offered by modulaI' approaches through the definition of the SM2D: Spatial Modular DataDriven approach, consisting in considering sub-processes partly defined by spatial criteria. We showed that the results obtained by the AV2D on these sub-processes allows to increase the performances particularly for short term prediction. Finally we proposed the modelization of a generic control tool for hydro-meteorological prediction systems, H2FCT: Hydro-meteorological Flood Forecasting Control 1'001

http://www.theses.fr/2013AGUY0673/document

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD American Diabetes Association
Résumé : International audience
OBJECTIVE: To compare incidences and risk factors for diabetes using seven definitions, with combinations of pharmacological treatment, fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥7.0 mmol/L, and HbA(1c) ≥6.5%. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Participants aged 30-65 years from the Data from an Epidemiological Study on the Insulin Resistance Syndrome (DESIR) cohort were followed for 9 years. RESULTS: More men had incident diabetes as defined by FPG ≥7.0 mmol/L and/or treatment than by HbA(1c) ≥6.5% and/or treatment: 7.5% (140/1,867) and 5.3% (99/1,874), respectively (P < 0.009); for women incidences were similar: 3.2% (63/1,958) and 3.4% (66/1,954). Known risk factors predicted diabetes for almost all definitions. Among those with incident diabetes by FPG alone versus HbA(1c) alone, there were more men (78 vs. 35%), case patients were 8 years younger, and fewer were alcohol abstainers (12 vs. 35%) (all P < 0.005). A diabetes risk score discriminated well between those with and without incident diabetes for all definitions. CONCLUSIONS: In men, FPG definitions yielded more incident cases of diabetes than HbA(1c) definitions, in contrast with women. An FPG-derived risk score remained relevant for HbA(1c)-defined diabetes.
Diabetes Care

inserm-00739799
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00739799
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00739799/document
DOI : 10.2337/dc10-1581
PUBMED : 21346181

Éditeur(s) : Soc Geol France
Résumé : The Lesser Antilles subduction zone has produced no recent strong thrust earthquakes, making it difficult to quantify the seismic hazard from such events. The Lesser Antilles arc has a low subduction rate and an accretionary wedge that is very wide at its southern end. To investigate the effect of the wedge on seismogenesis, numerical models of forearc thermal structure were constructed along six transects perpendicular to the arc in order to determine the thermally predicted width of the seismogenic zone. The geometry of each section is constrained by published seismic profiles and crustal models derived from gravity and seismic data and by earthquake hypocenters at depth. A major constraint on the deep part of the model is that mantle temperature beneath the volcanic arc should achieve a temperature of 1,100 degrees C to generate partial melts. Predicted surface heat flow is compared to the available heat flow observations. Thermal modeling results indicate a systematic southward increase in the width of the seismogenic zone, more than doubling in width from north to south and corresponding to a dramatic southward increase in forearc width (distance from the arc to the deformation front of the accretionary wedge). The minimum width of the seismogenic zone (distance between the intersections of the subduction interface with the 150 degrees C and 350 degrees C isotherms) increases from about 80 km, north of 16 degrees N, to 230 km, at 13 degrees N. The maximum width (between the 100 degrees C and 450 degrees C isotherms) ranges from about 150 km in the north to up to 320 km in the south. This large variation in the width of the seismogenic zone is a consequence of the increasing width of the accretionary wedge to the south, caused by the increased thickness of sediment on the subducting plate. There is good agreement between the thermally predicted seismogenic limits and the sparse distribution of recorded thrust earthquakes, which are observed only in the northern portion of the arc. Possible scenarios for mega-thrust earthquakes are discussed. Depending on the segment length (along-strike) of the rupture plane, the occurrence of an event of magnitude 8-9 cannot be excluded.
L’absence de grands séismes récents à mécanismes chevauchants dans la zone de subduction des Petites Antilles rend difficile l’évaluation de l’aléa sismique lié à de tels événements. L’arc des Petites Antilles est caractérisé par une faible vitesse de subduction et par la présence d’un prisme d’accrétion très développé à son extrémité méridionale. Afin d’évaluer les effets de la largeur de ce prisme sur la genèse des séismes, nous avons étudié six sections perpendiculaires à l’arc, du nord au sud de celui-ci, pour déterminer la largeur de la zone sismogène prédite par les modèles thermiques appliqués à chacune de ces coupes. La géométrie de ces dernières est contrainte par les profils sismiques publiés, par les modèles de structure crustale déduits des données gravitaires et sismiques, et enfin par la distribution des hypocentres des séismes. Un contrôle important permettant de tester la validité des modèles thermiques en profondeur est qu’une température minimale de 1 100oC, compatible avec la fusion partielle du manteau hydraté, doit être atteinte sous l’arc volcanique actif. Par ailleurs, le flux thermique en surface prédit par ces modèles doit être compatible avec les mesures de flux de chaleur. Les modèles thermiques retenus d’après ces critères montrent une augmentation du simple au double vers le sud de la largeur de la zone sismogène, qui correspond à un élargissement considérable de la taille du domaine avant-arc. En effet, la largeur minimale de la zone sismogène (définie comme la distance entre les intersections de l’interface des plaques avec les isothermes 150o et 350oC) augmente d’environ 80 km au nord de 16oN jusqu’à 230 km à 13oN. La largeur maximale de cette zone (définie par les intersections de l’interface avec les isothermes 100o et 450oC) augmente, quant à elle, d’environ 150 km au nord jusqu’à 320 km au sud de l’arc. Cette variation considérable est la conséquence de l’augmentation de la largeur du prisme d’accrétion, elle-même causée par l’accumulation croissante des sédiments déposés sur la plaque plongeante. Les largeurs de la zone sismogène prédites à l’aide des modèles thermiques sont en bon accord avec les rares données disponibles sur les séismes à mécanismes chevauchants dans la partie nord de l’arc. Les scénarios possibles relatifs à des méga-séismes de ce type n’excluent pas de futurs événements atteignant des magnitudes de 8 à 9.
Bulletin De La Societe Geologique De France (0037-9409) (Soc Geol France), 2013 , Vol. 184 , N. 1-2 , P. 47-59

Droits : 2013 Societe Geologique de France
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00140/25140/29432.pdf
DOI:10.2113/gssgfbull.184.1-2.47
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00140/25140/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Public Library of Science
Résumé : Climate models for the coming century predict rainfall reduction in the Amazonian region, including change in water availability for tropical rainforests. Here, we test the extent to which climate variables related to water regime, temperature and irradiance shape the growth trajectories of neotropical trees. . We developed a diameter growth model explicitly designed to work with asynchronous climate and growth data. Growth trajectories of 205 individual trees from 54 neotropical species censused every 2 months over a 4-year period were used to rank 9 climate variables and find the best predictive model. . About 9% of the individual variation in tree growth was imputable to the seasonal variation of climate. Relative extractable water was the main predictor and alone explained more than 60% of the climate effect on tree growth, i.e. 5.4% of the individual variation in tree growth. Furthermore, the global annual tree growth was more dependent on the diameter increment at the onset of the rain season than on the duration of dry season. . The best predictive model included 3 climate variables: relative extractable water, minimum temperature and irradiance. The root mean squared error of prediction (0.035 mm.d(-1)) was slightly above the mean value of the growth (0.026 mm.d(-1)). . Amongst climate variables, we highlight the predominant role of water availability in determining seasonal variation in tree growth of neotropical forest trees and the need to include these relationships in forest simulators to test, in silico, the impact of different climate scenarios on the future dynamics of the rainforest.
ISSN: 1932-6203

hal-01268350
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01268350
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0034074
PRODINRA : 215438
PUBMED : 22506012

Éditeur(s) : Université de Bretagne Occidentale
Résumé : Study of mineral suspended particulate matter (SPM) is essential to understand ecosystem dynamics. SPM influences light penetration which is closely related to primary production and carries pollutants and nutrients within the water masses. This work aims to study near-surface mineral SPM dynamics in the English Channel using two complementary methods: remote-sensing by satellites and numerical modelling. Firstly, MODIS and MERIS satellite images processed by the IFREMER semi-analytical algorithm and describing non-algal SPM, are analysed to build three statistical models which are able to estimate near-surface SPM using simple variables, e.g., tidal coefficient, significant wave height and mean chlorophyll-a concentration. Secondly, the three-dimensional hydrosedimentary model ROMS (Regional Ocean Modeling System) is applied in the English Channel. It considers tidal forcing along open boundaries, wind stress at the sea-surface, wave-current interactions in the bottom boundary layer and realistic heterogeneous bottom sediments. Results of the more sophisticated statistical model is also used to impose SPM concentrations at open boundaries. Sensitivity tests on SPM boundary conditions show the importance of prescribing realistic sediment concentrations to improve the model predictions. Biological influences on mineral SPM are also tested using settling velocity and critical shear stress for erosion which vary with seasons. Both statistical and numerical models highlight and locate respective influences of tide, waves and biology on mineral SPM. Numerical predictions indicate that near-surface SPM is mainly composed of silts (>70%). Near-surface suspended silts come largely from seabed resuspension alongshore in the Eastern Channel and from the open boundaries of our limited-area coastal model at the West of Cotentin Peninsula and offshore. Near-surface SPM variations are investigated at semi-diurnal, neap-spring tidal cycle time scales and during a wave event. Finally, dynamics of sediments in the turbidity maximum zone around the Isle of Wight is examined depending on hydrodynamical conditions in order to distinguish the role played by advection and local erosion/settling processes in this area. Keywords: Suspended particulate matter, satellite, remote-sensing, modelling, English Channel, sediments, turbidity, tide, wave
L'étude des matières en suspension (MES) minérales est essentielle pour comprendre le fonctionnement des écosystèmes en Manche : les MES influencent la pénétration de la lumière dans la colonne d'eau, paramètre clé pour la production biologique, et sont susceptibles de transporter des polluants et nutriments. Lors de ce travail, la dynamique des MES minérales de surface en Manche est étudiée à l'aide de deux méthodes complémentaires : l'observation par satellite et la modélisation numérique tridimensionnelle. Dans un premier temps, les images satellite MODIS et MERIS, traitées par l'algorithme semi-analytique développé par l'IFREMER et représentant les MES non-algales de surface, sont analysées afin d'élaborer trois modèles statistiques permettant d'estimer la MES de surface en fonction de variables basiques telles que le coefficient de marée, la hauteur significative des vagues et la concentration moyenne en chlorophylle-a. Dans un deuxième temps, le modèle hydrosédimentaire multiclasse tridimensionnel ROMS (Regional Ocean Modeling System) est implémenté en Manche. Il prend en considération le forçage par la marée aux frontières ouvertes, la contrainte exercée par le vent à la surface de la mer, l'interaction houle-courant en couche limite de fond et l’hétérogénéité spatiale réaliste du lit sédimentaire. Les résultats du modèle statistique le plus sophistiqué sont également utilisés pour forcer la concentration en MES aux frontières ouvertes du domaine de calcul. Des tests de sensibilité sur les conditions limites montrent l'importance de considérer de manière réaliste les sédiments entrant en Manche par les frontières ouvertes lors de la modélisation numérique. L'influence de la biologie sur les MES minérales est testée en utilisant une formulation de la vitesse de chute et de la contrainte critique d'érosion variant saisonnièrement. Grâce à ces deux outils associés, les influences respectives de la marée, de la houle et de la biologie sur les MES minérales sont mises en avant et localisées en Manche. Le modèle numérique prédit que les MES de surface sont composées principalement de silts (>70%). Les silts en suspension en surface proviennent majoritairement du lit sédimentaire près des côtes en Manche orientale et des frontières ouvertes du domaine de calcul à l'ouest de la presqu'île du Cotentin et au large en Manche centrale et orientale. Les variations des MES de surface sont ensuite étudiées aux échelles des cycles de marée semi-diurnes, vive-eau/morte-eau et autour d'un épisode de houles. Enfin, l'évolution de la concentration de sédiments dans la zone de forte turbidité autour de l'île de Wight peut être analysée suivant les conditions hydrodynamiques afin d'évaluer les rôles respectifs des processus locaux d'érosion/dépot et d'advection dans la génération de ces turbidités remarquables. Mots-clés : Matière en suspension, télédétection, satellite, modélisation, Manche, sédiments, turbidité, marée, houle

Droits : 2013 UBO
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00157/26783/24884.pdf
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00157/26783/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD BioMed Central
Résumé : International audience
ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Climate change poses unprecedented challenges, ranging from global and local policy challenges to personal and social action. Heat-related deaths are largely preventable, but interventions for the most vulnerable populations need improvement. Therefore, the prior identification of high risk areas at the community level is required to better inform planning and prevention. We aimed to demonstrate a simple and flexible conceptual framework relying upon satellite thermal data and other digital data with the goal of easily reproducing this framework in a variety of urban configurations. RESULTS: The study area encompasses Rennes, a medium-sized French city. A Landsat ETM + image (60 m resolution) acquired during a localized heatwave (June 2001) was used to estimate land surface temperature (LST) and derive a hazard index. A land-use regression model was performed to predict the LST. Vulnerability was assessed through census data describing four dimensions (socio-economic status, extreme age, population density and building obsolescence). Then, hazard and vulnerability indices were combined to deliver a heatwave health risk index. The LST patterns were quite heterogeneous, reflecting the land cover mosaic inside the city boundary, with hotspots of elevated temperature mainly observed in the city center. A spatial error regression model was highly predictive of the spatial variation in the LST (R2 = 0.87) and was parsimonious. Three land cover descriptors (NDVI, vegetation and water fractions) were negatively linked with the LST. A sensitivity analysis (based on an image acquired on July 2000) yielded similar results. Southern areas exhibited the most vulnerability, although some pockets of higher vulnerability were observed northeast and west of the city. The heatwave health risk map showed evidence of infra-city spatial clustering, with the highest risks observed in a north--south central band. Another sensitivity analysis gave a very high correlation between 2000 and 2001 risk indices (r = 0.98, p < 10-12). CONCLUSIONS: Building on previous work, we developed a reproducible method that can provide guidance for local planners in developing more efficient climate impact adaptations. We recommend, however, using the health risk index together with hazard and vulnerability indices to implement tailored programs because exposure to heat and vulnerability do not require the same prevention strategies.
ISSN: 1476-072X

inserm-00762303
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00762303
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00762303/document
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00762303/file/1476-072X-11-38.pdf
DOI : 10.1186/1476-072X-11-38

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Geological Society of America
Résumé : International audience
Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 313 continuously cored uppermost Eocene to Miocene sequences on the New Jersey shallow shelf (Sites M27, M28, and M29). Previously, 15 Miocene (ca. 23-13 Ma) seismic sequence boundaries were recognized on several generations of multichannel seismic profi les using criteria of onlap, downlap, erosional truncation, and toplap. We independently recognize sequence boundaries in the cores and logs based on an integrated study of core surfaces, lithostratigraphy and process sedimentology (grain size, mineralogy, facies, and paleoenvironments), facies successions, stacking patterns, benthic foraminiferal water depths, downhole logs, core gamma logs, and chronostratigraphic ages. We use a velocitydepth function to predict the depths of seismic sequence boundaries that were tested by comparison with major core surfaces, downhole and core logs, and synthetic seismograms. Using sonic velocity (core and downhole), core density, and synthetic seismograms, we show that sequence boundaries correspond with acoustic impedance contrasts, although other stratal surfaces (e.g., maximum fl ooding and transgressive surfaces) also produce refl ections. Core data are suffi cient to link seismic sequence boundaries to impedance contrasts in 9 of 12 instances at Site M27, 6 of 11 instances at Site M28, and 8 of 14 instances at Site M29. Oligocene sequences have minimal lithologic and seismic expression due to deep-water locations on clinoform bottomsets. Miocene sequences (ca. 23-13 Ma) were sampled across several unconformity clinothems (prograding units) on topset, foreset, and bottomset locations. Excellent recovery allows core-seismic integration that confi rms the hypothesis that unconformities are a primary source of impedance contrasts. Our core-seismic-log correlations predict that key seismic surfaces observed in other sub surface investigations without core and/or well logs are stratal surfaces with sequence stratigraphic signifi cance.
EISSN: 1553-040X

insu-00946235
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00946235
DOI : 10.1130/GES00858.1