Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
New guidelines have been produced by the CNSF and the CNGOF regarding the use of oxytocin after spontaneous onset of labor in France. This clinical practices were designed to redefine the normal and abnormal obstetrical labor; specify the indications, dosage, procedures, and effects of oxytocin administration; and describe the adverse maternal and perinatal effect associated with oxytocin administration.
31st International Confederation of Midwives (ICM) trienal congress
Toronto, France

Droits : http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/
hal-01564458
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01564458
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01564458/document
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01564458/file/Poster%20CNSF%20pour%20ICM%20Toronto%20-%20Juin%202017.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD EDP Sciences
Résumé : International audience
This paper presents a comparison of models for extreme rainfall and flood values. Based on a large set of thousands of rainfall and discharge data, the French ExtraFlo project showed that design estimate of extreme values based on the fitting of a distribution on a limited sample of maximum values is very inaccurate when only a few decades of observation are available. Some interesting alternatives are possible, using a regional approach, or historical data when available, or simulation methods, or sedimentological or geochemical signatures of flood deposits.
Cette communication présente les principaux résultats du projet ExtraFlo sur l'estimation des pluies et crues extrêmes. A partir d'un jeu de données conséquent de plusieurs milliers de stations, une procédure d'inter-comparaison a permis d'évaluer les performances d'une trentaine d'implémentations différentes issues de différentes combinaisons (modèle probabiliste, méthode d'estimation, cadre local / régional / mixte local et régional). Le projet ExtraFlo a permis de mettre en évidence le manque de robustesse des approches basées sur le traitement statistique d'une série de quelques dizaines d'années d'observation. Des alternatives intéressantes existent, basées sur l'exploitation des records de pluie et de débit à l'échelle d'une région, de la collecte de données historiques quand cela est possible, de méthodes de simulation basées sur le couplage d'un générateur d'averses avec un modèle hydrologique pour la transformation des pluies en débit, ou des traces morphologiques laissées par les crues anciennes.
ISSN: 0018-6368

hal-01128341
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01128341
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01128341/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01128341/file/ly2014-pub00041933.pdf
DOI : 10.1051/lhb/2014010

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD BioMed Central
Résumé : International audience
Background: HCV treatment uptake has drastically increased in HIV-HCV coinfected patients in France since direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment approval, resulting in HCV cure in 63% of all HIV-HCV patients by the end of 2015. We investigated the impact of scaling-up DAA on HCV prevalence in the whole HIV population and in various risk groups over the next 10 years in France using a transmission dynamic compartmental model.Methods: The model was based on epidemiological data from the French Dat’AIDS cohort. Eight risk groups wereconsidered, including high-risk (HR) and low-risk (LR) men who have sex with men (MSM) and male/female heterosexuals,intra-venous drug users, or patients from other risk groups. The model was calibrated on prevalence and incidence dataobserved in the cohort between 2012 and 2015.Results: On January 1, 2016, 156,811 patients were registered as infected with HIV in France (24,900 undiagnosedpatients) of whom 7938 (5.1%) had detectable HCV-RNA (722 undiagnosed patients). Assuming a treatmentcoverage (TC) rate of 30%/year (i.e., the observed rate in 2015), model projections showed that HCV prevalenceamong HIV patients is expected to drop to 0.81% in 2026. Sub-analyses showed a similar decrease of HIV-HCVprevalence in most risk groups, including LR MSM. Due to higher infection and reinfection rates, predicted prevalencein HR MSM remained stable from 6.96% in 2016 to 6.34% in 2026. Increasing annual TC rate in HR MSM to 50/70%would decrease HCV prevalence in this group to 2.35/1.25% in 2026. With a 30% TC rate, undiagnosed patients wouldaccount for 34% of HCV infections in 2026.Conclusions: Our model suggests that DAA could nearly eliminate coinfection in France within 10 years for most riskgroups, including LR MSM. Elimination in HR MSM will require increased TC.
ISSN: 1741-7015

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
inserm-01685739
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-01685739
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-01685739/document
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-01685739/file/2017%2C%20Virlogeux%20-%20Modeling%20HIV-HCV%20coinfection.pdf
DOI : 10.1186/s12916-017-0979-1

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Public Library of Science
Résumé : International audience
Diagnosis of toxoplasmic encephalitis (TE) in patients with AIDS is not straightforward because clinicians rely initially on an empiric diagnosis based on clinical and radiographic improvement to specific anti-Toxoplasma gondii therapy. There is therefore a need for biological tools to improve the diagnosis of TE, especially in tropical areas where this diagnosis is likely to be underestimated. The use of PCR testing in blood samples for the diagnosis of TE has been limited by its poor sensitivity in the studies conducted in Europe. In tropical South America, the results of PCR sensitivity in blood samples were controversial. Considering that T. gondii strains from tropical South America have substantial genetic and pathogenic differences with those from USA and Europe, it is therefore important to re-evaluate the performance of the PCR assay in blood samples for the diagnosis of TE in AIDS patients from this region. Our results showed that the only interest of PCR would be in the most severe forms of TE with altered consciousness because PCR is more likely to be positive. We also provided important genotyping data on T. gondii strains isolated in human cases of toxoplasmosis in the Caribbean and in South America.
ISSN: 1935-2727

hal-01503761
https://hal-unilim.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01503761
https://hal-unilim.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01503761/document
https://hal-unilim.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01503761/file/journal.pntd.0004790.pdf
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004790

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
In French Guiana, the prevalence of HIV among pregnant women along the Maroni river, has risen from 0 to over 1% in the 1990's. Despite this sharp increase, no behavioural surveillance study has ever taken place in this border region. The present study showed that an important proportion of boatmen have risky sexual behaviour. These results underline the importance of targeting prevention interventions on this population that is not currently receiving specific HIV prevention messages.
J AIDS Clinic Res

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
inserm-00915224
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00915224
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00915224/document
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00915224/file/2012_Gaubert_-_KABP_on_HIV_among_Boatmen_on_the_Maroni_river_a_neglected_bridging_group.pdf
DOI : 10.4172/2155-6113.1000181

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
EGU General Assembly 2015
Vienne, Austria

hal-01286324
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01286324
BIBCODE : 2015EGUGA..1713337U

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Federation of American Society of Experimental Biology
Résumé : International audience
Testes of most male mammals present the particularity of being externalized from the body and are consequently slightly cooler than core body temperature (4-8 degrees C below). Although, hypothermia of the testis is known to increase germ cells apoptosis, little is known about the underlying molecular mechanisms, including cold sensors, transduction pathways, and apoptosis triggers. In this study, using a functional knockout mouse model of the cold and menthol receptors, dubbed transient receptor potential melastatine 8 (TRPM8) channels, we found that TRPM8 initiated the cold-shock response by differentially modulating cold- and heat-shock proteins. Besides, apoptosis of germ cells increased in proportion to the cooling level in control mice but was independent of temperature in knockout mice. We also observed that the rate of germ cell death correlated positively with the reactive oxygen species level and negatively with the expression of the detoxifying enzymes. This result suggests that the TRPM8 sensor is a key determinant of germ cell fate under hypothermic stimulation.Borowiec, A.-S., Sion, B., Chalmel, F., Rolland, A. D., Lemonnier, L., De Clerck, T., Bokhobza, A., Derouiche, S., Dewailly, E., Slomianny, C., Mauduit, C., Benahmed, M., Roudbaraki, M., Jegou, B., Prevarskaya, N., Bidaux, G. Cold/menthol TRPM8 receptors initiate the cold-shock response and protect germ cells from cold-shock-induced oxidation.
ISSN: 0892-6638

hal-01390973
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01390973
DOI : 10.1096/fj.201600257R
PUBMED : 27317670

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : International audience
Within the framework of the international field campaign COPS (Convective and Orographically induced Precipitation Study), a large suite of state-of-the-art meteorological instrumentation was operated, partially combined for the first time. This includes networks of in situ and remote-sensing systems such as the Global Positioning System as well as a synergy of multi-wavelength passive and active remote-sensing instruments such as advanced radar and lidar systems. The COPS field phase was performed from 01 June to 31 August 2007 in a low-mountain area in southwestern Germany/eastern France covering the Vosges mountains, the Rhine valley and the Black Forest mountains. The collected dataset covers the entire evolution of convective precipitation events in complex terrain from their initiation, to their development and mature phase until their decay. Eighteen Intensive Observations Periods with 37 operation days and eight additional Special Observations Periods were performed, providing a comprehensive dataset covering different forcing conditions. In this article, an overview of the COPS scientific strategy, the field phase, and its first accomplishments is given. Highlights of the campaign are illustrated with several measurement examples. It is demonstrated that COPS research provides new insight into key processes leading to convection initiation and to the modification of precipitation by orography, in the improvement of quantitative precipitation forecasting by the assimilation of new observations, and in the performance of ensembles of convection-permitting models in complex terrain.
ISSN: 0035-9009

hal-00565513
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00565513
DOI : 10.1002/qj.752

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD John Libbey Eurotext
Résumé : International audience
Environmental health risk assessment is commonly used in France for risk management purposes. The Methodology section of the "Société française de santé environnement" (French Society for Environmental Health) seeks to improve the utility and implementation of risk assessment in France. An initial operational objective is to make a list of short-, intermediate- and long-term improvements. This inventory is based in part on the experience and expertise of society members in this area and in part on their analysis of "Science and Decisions: Advancing Risk Assessment" (National Research Council 2009). In this paper, the Society recommends modifications in the indications for and use of risk assessments, during each of the four stages of the process: hazard identification and dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, risk characterization, and results interpretation. Some may be implemented now, while others need consensus building or research because of gaps in knowledge. Environmental health risk assessment must be understood as a decision tool for risk management in situations of uncertainly. Thus, appropriate linkage is required between decision making and assessment, and between the methods and the expected results.
L'évaluation des risques sanitaires est fréquemment utilisée en France dans les processus de décision en santé environnementale. La section " Méthodologie d'évaluation des risques sanitaires " de la Société française de santé environnement (SFSE) s'est donnée pour objectif de proposer des éléments de réflexion et des outils méthodologiques en vue d'améliorer l'utilité et les pratiques de l'évaluation des risques sanitaires. Un premier objectif opérationnel est l'inventaire des améliorations possibles à court, moyen et long termes à apporter à la démarche et à son utilisation. Ce travail s'est fondé, d'une part, sur la pratique et l'expertise des membres de la section, et, d'autre part, sur une lecture critique du rapport " Science and Decisions : Advancing Risk Assessment " publié en 2009 par le National Research Council et portant également sur les évolutions de la démarche. Dans cet article, la section restitue les conclusions de cet inventaire critique et propose un certain nombre d'améliorations en termes d'indications et d'utilisations de l'évaluation des risques sanitaires pour chacune des quatre étapes : identification des dangers et relation dose-réponse ; évaluation de l'exposition ; caractérisation des risques ; et interprétation des résultats. Certaines recommandations peuvent être mises en oeuvre immédiatement ; d'autres, en préalable à leur mise en oeuvre, nécessitent un consensus ou encore de la recherche car les connaissances manquent. En conclusion, la section insiste sur le fait que l'évaluation des risques sanitaires doit être comprise comme une aide à la décision en situation d'incertitude ; l'articulation entre le contexte décisionnel et l'évaluation, sa méthodologie et les résultats attendus est donc primordiale.
ISSN: 1635-0421

ineris-00963325
https://hal-ineris.archives-ouvertes.fr/ineris-00963325
DOI : 10.1684/ers.2011.0435
INERIS : EN-2012-016

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier Masson
Résumé : The Beni Bousera peridotite contains a diversity of pyroxenite layers. Several studies have postulated that at least some of them represent elongated strips of oceanic lithosphere recycled in the convective mantle. Some pyroxenites were, however, ascribed to igneous crystal segregation or melt–rock reactions. To further constrain the origin of these rocks, we collected 171 samples throughout the massif and examined their variability in relation with the tectono-metamorphic domains. A major finding is that all facies showing clear evidence for a crustal origin are concentrated in a narrow corridor of mylonitized peridotites, along the contact with granulitic country rocks. These peculiar facies were most likely incorporated at the mantle–crust boundary during the orogenic events that culminated in the peridotite exhumation. The other pyroxenites derive from a distinct protolith that was ubiquitous in the massif before its exhumation. They were deeply modified by partial melting and melt–rock reactions associated with lithospheric thinning.
ISSN: 1631-0713

hal-01468018
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01468018
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01468018/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01468018/file/chetouani.pdf
DOI : 10.1016/j.crte.2016.06.001

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Public Library of Science
Résumé : International audience
ISSN: 1935-2727

hal-01447691
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01447691
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005254
PUBMED : 28081120

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD American Society of Hematology
Résumé : International audience
Zika fever is an Aedes-borne disease caused by a flavivirus (Zika virus, ZIKV, genus Flavivirus). During the past years ZIKV spread in Polynesia, South-America and the Caribbean. Most ZIKV infections are asymptomatic or result in mild febrile disease with rash and conjunctivitis. Attention was recently drawn to non-vectored ZIKV transmission, including sexual, probable blood-borne and mother-to-fetus transmission, and to severe forms such as Guillain-Barré syndrome, acute neurological infections and fetal abnormalities (including microcephaly). Many aspects of Zika fever natural history remain unknown, e.g. the proportion of asymptomatic cases and the duration of viremia. Estimating the prevalence of Zika infections is difficult because a large proportion of infected individuals do not seek medical attention and seroprevalence studies are hampered by antigenic cross-reactivity with other flaviviruses, e.g. dengue virus. Here, we present a study of ZIKV infection in blooddonors from Martinique island (French West Indies, Caribbean region), with novel epidemiological, biological and clinical information that refine the picture of Zika fever in adults.
ISSN: 0006-4971

inserm-01415646
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-01415646
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-01415646/document
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-01415646/file/2016%2C%20Gallian%20et%20al%20-%20Zika%20virus%20in%20asymptomatic%20blood%20donors%2C%20Martinique%20%281%29.pdf
DOI : 10.1182/blood-2016-09-737981

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Météo et Climat
Résumé : International audience
D'initiative française, le projet international HyMeX a pour objectif d'améliorer la compréhension du cycle de l'eau en Méditerranée, de sa variabilité, de l'échelle de l'événement météorologique aux échelles saisonnières et interannuelles, et de ses caractéristiques sur une décennie, dans un contexte de changement global. Le projet est motivé par le rôle déterminant des processus de mésoéchelle, couplés entre l'atmosphère, la mer et la terre, sur la variabilité du système climatique et sur le déclenchement d'événements hydrométéorologiques extrêmes (précipitations et inondations, vents forts et convection océanique, canicules et sécheresses). Le projet vise enfin à évaluer les conséquences de ces événements extrêmes sur la vulnérabilité sociale et économique de cette région et sa capacité d'adaptation.
ISSN: 0026-1181

hal-00828758
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00828758
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00828758/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00828758/file/meteo_2013_80_23%20%281%29.pdf
DOI : 10.4267/2042/48792

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
ISSN: 0360-5442

hal-01654082
https://hal.inria.fr/hal-01654082
DOI : 10.1016/j.energy.2016.06.004

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
GYNECOLOGIE OBSTETRIQUE FERTILITE & SENOLOGIE

hal-01653280
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01653280
DOI : 10.1016/j.gofs.2016.12.017
PUBMED : 28238320

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Endocrine Society
Résumé : International audience
Transcriptional regulation by the estrogen receptor-alpha(ER) has been investigated mainly in breast cancer cell lines, but estrogens such as 17 beta-estradiol (E2) exert numerous extrareproductive effects, particularly in the liver, where E2 exhibits both protective metabolic and deleterious thrombotic actions. To analyze the direct and early transcriptional effects of estrogens in the liver, we determined the E2-sensitive transcriptome and ER cistrome in mice after acute administration of E2 or placebo. These analyses revealed the early induction of genes involved in lipid metabolism, which fits with the crucial role of ER in the prevention of liver steatosis. Characterization of the chromatin state of ER binding sites (BSs) in mice expressing or not ER demonstrated that ER is not required per se for the establishment and/or maintenance of chromatin modifications at the majority of its BSs. This is presumably a consequence of a strong overlap between ER and hepatocyte nuclear factor 4 alpha BSs. In contrast, 40% of the BSs of the pioneer factor forkhead box protein a (Foxa2) were dependent upon ER expression, and ER expression also affected the distribution of nucleosomes harboring dimethylated lysine 4 of Histone H3 around Foxa2 BSs. We finally show that, in addition to a network of liver-specific transcription factors including CCAAT/enhancer-binding protein and hepatocyte nuclear factor 4 alpha, ER might be required for proper Foxa2 function in this tissue.
ISSN: 0888-8809

hal-01357623
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01357623
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01357623/document
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01357623/file/Changes%20in%20gene%20expression%201%20and%20Estrogen%20Receptor_accepted.pdf
DOI : 10.1210/me.2015-1311

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : International audience
MR and MDHD contributed equally to this work. Summary Painful vaso-occlusive crisis, a hallmark of sickle cell anaemia, results from complex, incompletely understood mechanisms. Red blood cell (RBC) damage caused by continuous endogenous and exogenous oxidative stress may precipitate the occurrence of vaso-occlusive crises. In order to gain insight into the relevance of oxidative stress in vaso-occlusive crisis occurrence , we prospectively compared the expression levels of various oxidative markers in 32 adults with sickle cell anaemia during vaso-occlusive crisis and steady-state conditions. Compared to steady-state condition, plasma levels of free haem, advanced oxidation protein products and myeloperoxi-dase, RBC caspase-3 activity, as well as the concentrations of total, neutrophil-and RBC-derived microparticles were increased during vaso-occlusive crises, whereas the reduced glutathione content was decreased in RBCs. In addition, natural anti-band 3 autoantibodies levels decreased during crisis and were negatively correlated with the rise in plasma advanced oxidation protein products and RBC caspase-3 activity. These data showed an exacerbation of the oxidative stress during vaso-occlusive crises in sickle cell anaemia patients and strongly suggest that the higher concentration of harmful circulating RBC-derived microparticles and the reduced anti-band 3 autoantibodies levels may be both related to the recruitment of oxidized band 3 into membrane aggregates.
ISSN: 0007-1048

inserm-01476067
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-01476067
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-01476067/document
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-01476067/file/2016%2C%20Hierso%20-%20Exacerbation%20of%20oxidative%20stress%20during%20sickle%20vaso-occlusive%20crisis.pdf
DOI : 10.1111/bjh.14476

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
The present study was conducted to assess the effects of Cd exposure on estrogen signaling in the zebrafish brain, as well as the potential protective role of Zn against Cd-induced toxicity. For this purpose, the effects on transcriptional activation of the estrogen receptors (ERs), aromatase B (Aro-B) protein expression and molecular expression of related genes were examined in vivo using wild-type and transgenic zebrafish embryos. For in vitro studies, an ER-negative glial cell line (U251MG) transfected with different zebrafish ER subtypes (ERα, ERβ1 and ERβ2) was also used. Embryos were exposed either to estradiol (E2), Cd, E2+Cd or E2+Cd+Zn for 72 h and cells were exposed to the same treatments for 30 h. Our results show that E2 treatment promoted the transcriptional activation of ERs and increased Aro-B expression, at both the protein and mRNA levels. Although exposure to Cd, does not affect the studied parameters when administered alone, it significantly abolished the E2-stimulated transcriptional response of the reporter gene for the three ER subtypes in U251-MG cells, and clearly inhibited the E2 induction of Aro-B in radial glial cells of zebrafish embryos. These inhibitory effects were accompanied by a significant downregulation of the expression of esr1, esr2a, esr2b and cyp19a1b genes compared to the E2-treated group used as a positive control. Zn administration during simultaneous exposure to E2 and Cd strongly stimulated zebrafish ERs transactivation and increased Aro-B protein expression, whereas mRNA levels of the three ERs as well as the cyp19a1b remained unchanged in comparison with Cd-treated embryos. In conclusion, our results clearly demonstrate that Cd acts as a potent anti-estrogen in vivo and in vitro, and that Cd-induced E2 antagonism can be reversed, at the protein level, by Zn supplement.
Journal of Applied Toxicology

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
hal-01274217
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01274217
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01274217/document
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01274217/file/Inhibitory%20effect%20of%20Cadmium%20on%20estrogen_accepted.pdf
DOI : 10.1002/jat.3285

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Résumé : International audience
Cervical cancer is the second most frequent cancer in women in French Guiana. Studies have shown that populations living in the remote areas of the interior have early sexual debut and that multiple sexual partnerships are common. The objective of the present study was thus to determine the prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in these areas. A study was conducted in women aged 20-65 years with previous sexual activity. Women were included on a voluntary basis after using local media and leaders to inform them of the visit of the team. HPV infection was defined by the detection of HPV DNA using the Greiner Bio-One kit. In addition to HPV testing cytology was performed. The overall age-standardized prevalence rate was 35%. There was a U-shaped evolution of HPV prevalence by age with women aged >50 years at highest risk for HPV, followed by the 20-29 years group. Twenty-seven percent of women with a positive HPV test had normal cytology. Given the high incidence of cervical cancer in French Guiana and the high prevalence of HPV infections the present results re-emphasize the need for screening for cervical cancer in these remote areas. Vaccination against HPV, preferably with a nonavalent vaccine, also seems an important prevention measure. However, in this region where a large portion of the population has no health insurance, this still represents a challenge.
ISSN: 0950-2688

inserm-01476015
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-01476015
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-01476015/document
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-01476015/file/High%20prevalence%20HPV%20infection%20in%20women%20living%20in%20the%20remote%20territories%20of%20French%20Guiana%20STD.pdf
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-01476015/file/Table%203.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Public Library of Science
Résumé : International audience
Understanding the factors underlying the spatio-temporal distribution of infectious diseases provides useful information regarding their prevention and control. Dengue fever spatio-temporal patterns result from complex interactions between the virus, the host, and the vector. These interactions can be influenced by environmental conditions. Our objectives were to analyse dengue fever spatial distribution over New Caledonia during epidemic years, to identify some of the main underlying factors, and to predict the spatial evolution of dengue fever under changing climatic conditions, at the 2100 horizon. We used principal component analysis and support vector machines to analyse and model the influence of climate and socio-economic variables on the mean spatial distribution of 24,272 dengue cases reported from 1995 to 2012 in thirty-three communes of New Caledonia. We then modelled and estimated the future evolution of dengue incidence rates using a regional downscaling of future climate projections. The spatial distribution of dengue fever cases is highly heterogeneous. The variables most associated with this observed heterogeneity are the mean temperature, the mean number of people per premise, and the mean percentage of unemployed people, a variable highly correlated with people's way of life. Rainfall does not seem to play an important role in the spatial distribution of dengue cases during epidemics. By the end of the 21st century, if temperature increases by approximately 3°C, mean incidence rates during epidemics could double. In New Caledonia, a subtropical insular environment, both temperature and socio-economic conditions are influencing the spatial spread of dengue fever. Extension of this study to other countries worldwide should improve the knowledge about climate influence on dengue burden and about the complex interplay between different factors. This study presents a methodology that can be used as a step by step guide to model dengue spatial heterogeneity in other countries.
ISSN: 1935-2727

Droits : http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
pasteur-01247037
https://hal-riip.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-01247037
https://hal-riip.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-01247037/document
https://hal-riip.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-01247037/file/journal.pntd.0004211.pdf
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004211