Éditeur(s) : Université des Antilles Études caribéennes
Résumé : This study explores weather perceptions, evaluations and behavior of holiday-tourists to the French Caribbean island of La Martinique. Herein, the importance of selected weather parameters for a ‘typical’ summer holiday, for the choice that was made in coming to Martinique and for planned activities is examined. 32 snapshot interviews were held in two brief time periods within a month. Results illustrated slight differences in climate preferences for respondents depending whether they come from a cold or from a warm climate country, that activity patterns seemed overall little influenced by changing weather conditions and that the experienced weather, which was marked by heavy rains in the first data collection period and by changeable weather in the second, appeared to take only a limited impact on return intentions. Albeit the limited possibility of a pilot study to produce valid and reliable findings, variables and factors which are critical to consider when examining weather perceptions and behaviors have been pointed out and presented in a conceptual model for further research.
Cette étude explore les perceptions et les évaluations des conditions météorologiques et les comportements des vacanciers sur l'île de la Martinique. A ce sujet, l´étude examine l'influence de certains paramètres météorologiques sélectionnés sur des vacances d'été «typiques», sur le choix de la destination Martinique et sur les activités envisagées sur lieu. 32 interviews instantanées ont eu lieu en deux courtes périodes de temps pendant un mois. Les résultats illustraient qu´il y avait de légères différences concernant les préférences climatiques selon que les répondants venaient d'un pays au climat froid ou chaud, que les schémas d'activité semblaient généralement peu influencés par les changements météorologiques et que le temps - marquées par de fortes pluies dans la première période de la collecte de données et par un temps variable dans la seconde période - semblait n´avoir qu´un impact limité sur les intentions à revenir à la Martinique. Bien que l´étude pilote n´ait que des possibilités limitées de fournir des résultats valides et fiables, elle identifie les variables et les facteurs qui sont essentiels à considérer lors d´un projet de recherche qui examine la perception des conditions météorologiques par les touristes et les comportements qui en résultent. Ces facteurs sont présentés dans un modèle conceptuel.
Martinique

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
urn:doi:10.4000/etudescaribeennes.5323
http://journals.openedition.org/etudescaribeennes/5323

Éditeur(s) : Pergamon-elsevier Science Ltd
Résumé : Quantitative analyses on calcareous nannofossil assemblages on high temporal resolution (600-800 years) have been carried out from Core KC01B in the Ionian Sea (Eastern Mediterranean) throughout Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 13-9, between 500 and 300 ka. This is an interval of considerable climate changes, known as the Mid-Brunhes event, which includes MIS 11, considered as a possible analogue for future interglacial conditions. In the Mediterranean core, the interval is characterized by the dominance of Gephyrocapsa spp., as also known from ocean records. Calcareous nannofossil abundance fluctuations have been interpreted in terms of modification of sea surface primary productivity/water stratification and temperature. Specifically, the increase in abundance of Gephyrocapsa caribbeanica and small Gephyrocapsa coupled with decreases of Florisphaera profunda, Syracosphaera spp. and Rhabdosphaera spp. suggests enhanced primary productivity/mixed surface waters during interglacial stages and at the Terminations, which can be interpreted in terms of interaction between climate changes and mesoscale oceanographic circulation. On the other hand, distributions of Calciosolenia spp., Oolithotus spp. and Umbilicosphaera sibogae, which are in phase with delta O-18 curve showing higher abundances at the lighter values of the marine isotope record, are considered as warm-water indicators. Biotic proxies point to peculiar climate dynamics through the MIS 12-11 transition (i.e. Termination V). High productive, cool, low salinity and turbid surface waters characterize the early MIS 11(421-408 ka) and likely reflect enhanced continental humidity/monsoon activity over North Africa and increased runoff into the basin. A late surface water warming with respect to Termination V is established at about 403 ka, during a period of low insolation forcing, almost coeval with the deposition of sapropel S11. A climate optimum, lasting about 15 ky (403-389 ka), is then recorded during a period of low insolation forcing centred at 398 ka. The later part of MIS 11 is characterized by climate deterioration at about 389 ka. Comparison with results from subtropical to polar Atlantic records suggests a remarkable relation between Mediterranean and Atlantic climate regimes.
Quaternary International (1040-6182) (Pergamon-elsevier Science Ltd), 2013-03 , Vol. 288 , P. 97-111

Droits : 2011 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00181/29194/27593.pdf
DOI:10.1016/j.quaint.2011.12.007
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00181/29194/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD American Association for the Advancement of Science
Résumé :  
Amazon forests are a key but poorly understood component of the global carbon cycle. If, as anticipated, they dry this century, they might accelerate climate change through carbon losses and changed surface energy balances. We used records from multiple long-term monitoring plots across Amazonia to assess forest responses to the intense 2005 drought, a possible analog of future events. Affected forest lost biomass, reversing a large long-term carbon sink, with the greatest impacts observed where the dry season was unusually intense. Relative to pre-2005 conditions, forest subjected to a 100-millimeter increase in water deficit lost 5.3 megagrams of aboveground biomass of carbon per hectare. The drought had a total biomass carbon impact of 1.2 to 1.6 petagrams (1.2 × 1015 to 1.6 × 1015 grams). Amazon forests therefore appear vulnerable to increasing moisture stress, with the potential for large carbon losses to exert feedback on climate change.
ISSN: 0036-8075

hal-01032111
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01032111
DOI : 10.1126/science.1164033

Éditeur(s) : Pergamon-elsevier Science Ltd
Résumé : Society's needs for a network of in situ ocean observing systems cross many areas of earth and marine science. Here we review the science themes that benefit from data supplied from ocean observatories. Understanding from existing studies is fragmented to the extent that it lacks the coherent long-term monitoring needed to address questions at the scales essential to understand climate change and improve geo-hazard early warning. Data sets from the deep sea are particularly rare with long-term data available from only a few locations worldwide. These science areas have impacts on societal health and well-being and our awareness of ocean function in a shifting climate. Substantial efforts are underway to realise a network of open-ocean observatories around European Seas that will operate over multiple decades. Some systems are already collecting high-resolution data from surface, water column, seafloor, and sub-seafloor sensors linked to shore by satellite or cable connection in real or near-real time, along with samples and other data collected in a delayed mode. We expect that such observatories will contribute to answering major ocean science questions including: How can monitoring of factors such as seismic activity, pore fluid chemistry and pressure, and gas hydrate stability improve seismic, slope failure, and tsunami warning? What aspects of physical oceanography, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystems will be most sensitive to climatic and anthropogenic change? What are natural versus anthropogenic changes? Most fundamentally, how are marine processes that occur at differing scales related? The development of ocean observatories provides a substantial opportunity for ocean science to evolve in Europe. Here we also describe some basic attributes of network design. Observatory networks provide the means to coordinate and integrate the collection of standardised data capable of bridging measurement scales across a dispersed area in European Seas adding needed certainty to estimates of future oceanic conditions. Observatory data can be analysed along with other data such as those from satellites, drifting floats, autonomous underwater vehicles, model analysis, and the known distribution and abundances of marine fauna in order to address some of the questions posed above. Standardised methods for information management are also becoming established to ensure better accessibility and traceability of these data sets and ultimately to increase their use for societal benefit. The connection of ocean observatory effort into larger frameworks including the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) and the Global Monitoring of Environment and Security (GMES) is integral to its success. It is in a greater integrated framework that the full potential of the component systems will be realised. Crown Copyright (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Progress In Oceanography (0079-6611) (Pergamon-elsevier Science Ltd), 2011-10 , Vol. 91 , N. 1 , P. 1-33

Droits : 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00044/15557/15923.pdf
DOI:10.1016/j.pocean.2011.05.001
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00044/15557/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
As climate change continues to impact socio-ecological systems, tools that assist conservation managers to understand vulnerability and target adaptations are essential. Quantitative assessments of vulnerability are rare because available frameworks are complex and lack guidance for dealing with data limitations and integrating across scales and disciplines. This paper describes a semi-quantitative method for assessing vulnerability to climate change that integrates socio-ecological factors to address management objectives and support decision-making. The method applies a framework first adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and uses a structured 10-step process. The scores for each framework element are normalized and multiplied to produce a vulnerability score and then the assessed components are ranked from high to low vulnerability. Sensitivity analyses determine which indicators most influence the analysis and the resultant decision-making process so data quality for these indicators can be reviewed to increase robustness. Prioritisation of components for conservation considers other economic, social and cultural values with vulnerability rankings to target actions that reduce vulnerability to climate change by decreasing exposure or sensitivity and/or increasing adaptive capacity. This framework provides practical decision-support and has been applied to marine ecosystems and fisheries, with two case applications provided as examples: (1) food security in Pacific Island nations under climate-driven fish declines, and (2) fisheries in the Gulf of Carpentaria, northern Australia. The step-wise process outlined here is broadly applicable and can be undertaken with minimal resources using existing data, thereby having great potential to inform adaptive natural resource management in diverse locations.
ISSN: 0308-597X

hal-01380403
https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01380403
DOI : 10.1016/j.marpol.2016.09.024

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Public Library of Science
Résumé : Climate models for the coming century predict rainfall reduction in the Amazonian region, including change in water availability for tropical rainforests. Here, we test the extent to which climate variables related to water regime, temperature and irradiance shape the growth trajectories of neotropical trees. . We developed a diameter growth model explicitly designed to work with asynchronous climate and growth data. Growth trajectories of 205 individual trees from 54 neotropical species censused every 2 months over a 4-year period were used to rank 9 climate variables and find the best predictive model. . About 9% of the individual variation in tree growth was imputable to the seasonal variation of climate. Relative extractable water was the main predictor and alone explained more than 60% of the climate effect on tree growth, i.e. 5.4% of the individual variation in tree growth. Furthermore, the global annual tree growth was more dependent on the diameter increment at the onset of the rain season than on the duration of dry season. . The best predictive model included 3 climate variables: relative extractable water, minimum temperature and irradiance. The root mean squared error of prediction (0.035 mm.d(-1)) was slightly above the mean value of the growth (0.026 mm.d(-1)). . Amongst climate variables, we highlight the predominant role of water availability in determining seasonal variation in tree growth of neotropical forest trees and the need to include these relationships in forest simulators to test, in silico, the impact of different climate scenarios on the future dynamics of the rainforest.
ISSN: 1932-6203

hal-01268350
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01268350
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0034074
PRODINRA : 215438
PUBMED : 22506012

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : During the course of their life cycle organisms are exposed to natural environment variations capable of inducing physiological, morphological and behaviour changes, thus a phenotypic plasticity. Phenotypic plasticity is the ability of a genotype to generate a new phenotype following exogeneous or endogeneous stress. Here, we investigated the phenotypic plasticity of the non-calcifying symbiotic cnidarian Anemonia viridis at multiple levels of structural complexity, in vivo and in vitro. In vivo, we determined the mechanisms behind the phenotypic plasticity under expected future climate change (i.e. ocean acidification and ocean warming). Our results show physiological changes in the inorganic carbon use of the sea anemone A. viridis exposed to high pCO2 during a long-term stress in natura or a short-term stress in controlled conditions. We then observed an equivalent decrease in carbonic anhydrase activity, a key enzyme of cnidarian carbon concentrating mechanisms. Also, we demonstrated that an increase in seawater temperature modified the response observed during a high pCO2 scenario. In vitro, we established a viable primary cell culture from regenerating tentacles of A. viridis. We determined the gastrodermal tissue origin of the cultivated cells and validated the use of this new tool to the in vitro study of stress response at the cellular level. The set-up of this powerful in vitro tool will open a multitude of perspectives for the study of cellular responses to exogeneous stress (as global change perturbations) and to endogeneous stress (as the symbiosis constraints experienced by symbiotic cnidarians)
Durant leur cycle de vie, les organismes sont exposés à des variations environnementales capables d'induire des changements physiologiques, morphologiques et comportementaux, résultant d’une plasticité phénotypique. La plasticité phénotypique est la capacité d'un génotype à générer un nouveau phénotype suite à un stress. Ici, nous avons étudié la plasticité phénotypique d’un Cnidaire symbiotique et non-calcifiant, l’anémone de mer Anemonia viridis, à de multiples niveaux de complexité structurale, in vivo et in vitro. In vivo, nous avons identifié les mécanismes sous-jacents de la plasticité phénotypique potentiellement induits par les futurs changements climatiques (acidification et réchauffement des océans). Nos résultats montrent des modifications dans l'utilisation du carbone inorganique par A. viridis exposée à une forte pCO2 lors d’un stress chronique in natura ou lors d’un stress court en conditions contrôlées. Nous avons ainsi observé une diminution des activités anhydrase carbonique, une enzyme clé des mécanismes de concentration du carbone chez les Cnidaires. Nous avons aussi démontré que l'augmentation concomittante de la température modifie la réponse observée lors d'une élévation seule de la pCO2. In vitro, nous avons établi une culture de cellules primaires viables issue de tentacules d’A. viridis en régénération. Nous avons déterminé l'origine gastrodermale des cellules cultivées et validé l'utilisation de ce nouvel outil pour l'étude de la réponse au stress au niveau cellulaire. Ce nouvel outil ouvre une multitude de perspectives pour l'étude des réponses cellulaires aux stress exogènes (changement climatique) et endogènes (contraintes dues à la symbiose)
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01674220

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
NNT : 2016AZUR4136
tel-01674220
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01674220
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01674220/document
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01674220/file/2016AZUR4136.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD MDPI
Résumé : International audience
The future of tropical managed forests is threatened by climate change. In anticipation of the increase in the frequency of drought episodes predicted by climatic models for intertropical regions, it is essential to study commercial trees' resilience and vulnerability to water stress by identifying potential interaction effects between selective logging and stress due to a lack of water. Focusing on 14 species representing a potential or acknowledged commercial interest for wood production in the Guiana Shield, a joint model coupling growth and mortality for each species was parametrized, including a climatic variable related to water stress and the quantity of aboveground biomass lost after logging. For the vast majority of the species, water stress had a negative impact on growth rate, while the impact of logging was positive. The opposite results were observed for the mortality. Combining results from growth and mortality models, we generate vulnerability profiles and ranking from species apparently quite resistant to water stress (Chrysophyllum spp., Goupia glabra Aubl., Qualea rosea Aubl.), even under logging pressure, to highly vulnerable species (Sterculia spp.). In light of our results, forest managers in the Guiana Shield may want to conduct (i) a conservation strategy of the most vulnerable species and (ii) a diversification of the logged species. Conservation of the already-adapted species may also be considered as the most certain way to protect the tropical forests under future climates.
ISSN: 1999-4907

hal-01315432
https://hal-sde.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01315432
DOI : 10.3390/f7050105

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : 1. A recent article published by Toledo (2011b) investigates the effects of spatial variations in climate and soil, and of logging disturbance, on tree and forest growth in Bolivia. It concludes that climate is the strongest driver of tree and forest growth and that climate change may therefore have large consequences for forest productivity and carbon sequestration. However, serious methodological and conceptual discrepancies have been found that challenge these conclusions.[br/] 2. Because of an errant coding of time after logging in the regression analysis, and because floristic changes induced by logging could not be incorporated into the analysis, the effect of logging on the average diameter growth is likely to have been strongly underestimated.[br/] 3. Basal area growth was improperly calculated as basal area change, and it displayed surprisingly high values, even among unlogged plots. We hypothesize that either these plots may be actually located in secondary forests recovering from past logging, or measurement biases may have hampered the data set.[br/] 4. Regardless of climategrowth relationships established across these plots, any inference concerning the potential effects of climate change on forest growth would require a specific quantitative assessment.[br/] 5. Synthesis. It is critical to re-assess the relative weight of climate and logging disturbance as driving factors of tree and forest growth, and to find an explanation for the very high basal area increment reported among the unlogged plots. We provide specific recommendations for further analyses of this and similar data sets.
ISSN: 0022-0477

hal-01032432
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01032432
DOI : 10.1111/j.1365-2745.2011.01895.x

Résumé : The management of marine fish stocks has stayed non-spatial, considering spatial distributions and their consequences on demography as implicit. But the impacts of climate change and the anthropisation of habitats now require to consider spatial procedures explicitly. The work presented here starts with the question of evaluating population abundance, which requires the modelling of spatial distributions (section 1). Then an ecological understanding of the multi-scale nature of distributions is investigated (section 2). Last, we study how demographic population dynamics depends on the spatial organisation of life cycles (section 3). In this work, the approach has been to combine data acquisition at sea with statistical characterisation and modelling. The application of geostatistics to fisheries survey data provided a solution to abundance evaluation and mapping for many different survey designs. A variety of models were implemented (stationary, non-stationary, non-linear, multivariate, spatio-temporal), depending on the statistical characteristics of the data and the problem posed. Sampling bias were identified by combining different survey methods. New procedures for assessing stocks based on indicators including spatial ones were developed, which prepared for ecosystem assessments. (...)
La gestion des stocks de poissons marins est longtemps restée a-spatiale, considérant implicites les mécanismes d’organisation spatiale qui soutiennent la distribution géographique des ressources et leur dynamique démographique. Mais l’impact du changement climatique et l’anthropisation des habitats nécessitent d’en tenir compte explicitement. Partant de questions d’évaluation qui ont nécessité la modélisation des distributions spatiales (section 1), le déterminisme écologique de ces distributions a ensuite été abordé à différentes échelles (section 2) puis ont été envisagées les conséquences de l’organisation spatiale sur la dynamique démographique des populations (section 3). L’approche scientifique suivie intègre l’acquisition de données à la mer, la caractérisation statistique et la modélisation. L’application de la géostatistique aux données des campagnes halieutiques permet de proposer une solution à l’estimation d’abondance et la cartographie pour une variété de plans d’échantillonnage. Différents modèles sont mis en oeuvre (stationnaires, non-stationnaires, non-linéaires, multivariés, spatio-temporels) en fonction du comportement des données et du problème posé. Des biais d’échantillonnage sont identifiés en combinant différentes méthodes d’échantillonnage. Des procédures nouvelles d’évaluation de stocks à partir d’indicateurs dont des indicateurs spatiaux sont développées, qui préparent à l’évaluation des écosystèmes. (...)

Droits : Ifremer, UPMC
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00013/12410/9197.pdf
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00013/12410/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : Climate change is one of the biggest public health threats in the 21th century. An increase in temperatures will lead to an increase in mortality attributable to temperature. In addition, some populations and territories are particularly vulnerable to the impact of increases in heat. It is thus necessary to identify these populations and territories as well as examine future heat-Related health impacts in order to recommend equity-Oriented policies today and in the future. The general objective of this thesis is to document current and future heat-Related vulnerability factors in the context of climate change. In order to address this general objective, the thesis involved four components: a) to conduct a systematic review and a meta-Analysis to assess the heterogeneity in the heat-Mortality associations with respect to individual and contextual population characteristics; b) to identify whether and how the magnitude of mean temperature effects on all-Cause mortality were modified by chronic air pollution exposure, social deprivation, and a combination of these two dimensions; c) to develop a method to quantify the climate change impacts on heat-Related mortality using climate modeling; d) to assess historical and future social disparities in years of life lost caused by ambient temperature in Montreal and Paris, and compare these estimates as well as the impact of climate change on social disparities between the two cities. This thesis highlights which populations are more vulnerable to heat and shows that several differences exist with regard to guidelines from international public health institutions for the identification of vulnerable populations. This thesis also identified chronic air pollution exposure as a new vulnerability factor in heat-Related mortality and that it has a double interaction with social deprivation. Furthermore, in this thesis a novel method to quantify future heat-Related mortality was developed which emphasized the strong evidence of an increase in heat-Related mortality under climate change. This method was then applied to estimate the increase in daily years of life lost social disparities in both Montreal and Paris under climate change which showed that this increase would be greater in Montreal compared to Paris in the future. Thus, this thesis which used a variety of epidemiologic methods has clarified which populations are particularly vulnerable to heat impacts and challenges guidelines for the identification of vulnerable populations from international public health institutions. It has also highlighted the climate change impacts on health inequalities and aims to reorient equity-Focused policies.
Les changements climatiques constituent l’un des enjeux les plus importants en santé publique du XXIème siècle. En effet, une hausse des températures provoquera une hausse de la mortalité attribuable à la chaleur. En outre, certaines populations et territoires sont particulièrement vulnérables aux effets de la chaleur. Il est donc nécessaire de les identifier clairement ainsi que les impacts futurs pour orienter avec équité les politiques publiques aujourd’hui et à l’avenir. L’objectif de cette thèse est de documenter les facteurs de vulnérabilité à la chaleur dans le présent et les éléments permettant leur prise en compte pour l’avenir dans le contexte des changements climatiques. Quatre étapes ont été menées pour répondre à cet objectif : a) Mener une revue systématique et une méta-Analyse des facteurs de vulnérabilité face aux risques de mortalité en lien avec la chaleur ; b) Analyser si l’exposition chronique à la pollution atmosphérique modifie la relation entre la chaleur et la mortalité dans un contexte urbain (Paris) et explorer la double interaction avec la défaveur sociale ; c) Développer une méthode de quantification des impacts liés à la chaleur en lien avec les changements climatiques en intégrant une grande diversité de simulations climatiques ; d) Estimer les inégalités d’années de vies perdues attribuables à la chaleur et leurs projections futures dans deux contextes distincts (Montréal et Paris) et comparer ces inégalités. Cette thèse a permis de mettre en évidence sur la base de la littérature épidémiologique les groupes de population qui sont les plus vulnérables face aux effets de la chaleur et de montrer qu’il y a plusieurs divergences par rapport aux recommandations émises par les institutions de santé publique vis-À-Vis de l’identification de populations vulnérables. Cette thèse a permis également d’identifier l’exposition chronique à la pollution atmosphérique comme nouveau facteur de vulnérabilité à la chaleur et que cette vulnérabilité était encore plus prononcée lorsqu’il s’agissait de populations défavorisées socialement. Puis, une méthode permettant de quantifier l’impact des changements climatiques sur les décès attribuables à la chaleur et ses sources d’incertitudes a été développée, et a permis de mettre en évidence que la probabilité que les changements climatiques conduisent à une augmentation de la mortalité en lien avec la chaleur est très forte. Cette méthode a ensuite été utilisée pour estimer que l’augmentation de la température conduira à une augmentation des inégalités sociales d’années de vie perdues à la fois à Montréal et à Paris, l’effet des changements climatiques sur l’accroissement de ces inégalités étant plus fort à Montréal qu’à Paris. Cette thèse, en se basant sur diverses méthodes épidémiologiques, a permis dans l’ensemble de clarifier quelles populations étaient particulièrement à risque face aux effets de la chaleur et de questionner les recommandations émises par les organismes tels que l’OMS. Elle a également permis de montrer l’effet des changements climatiques sur l’évolution de vulnérabilités face à la chaleur pour inciter dès aujourd’hui la mise en place de politiques publiques équitables et limiter l’impact des changements climatiques sur l’accroissement des inégalités de santé.
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01456772

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
NNT : 2015PA11T003
tel-01456772
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01456772
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01456772/document
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01456772/file/VA_BENMARHNIA_TARIK_05022015.pdf

Éditeur(s) : Université des Antilles Études caribéennes
Résumé : Comme dans d’autres régions du monde, la croissance démographique et l’aménagement côtier sur le littoral acadien au Nouveau-Brunswick contribuent à une plus grande vulnérabilité et à la détérioration des espaces côtiers et environnements littoraux. L’élévation du niveau marin et les effets des changements climatiques rendent les côtes du Nouveau-Brunswick extrêmement sensibles et entrainent des impacts de plus en plus importants. Ainsi, l’adaptation aux changements climatiques constitue un enjeu de taille pour la province.Nous décrivons ici les résultats d’une étude comparative sur les expériences et les stratégies d’adaptation de deux communautés côtières, les communautés de Cocagne - Grande Digue et de Beaubassin-Est - Cap Pelé. Les deux territoires ont en commun d’avoir des littoraux convoités par le tourisme et le secteur immobilier. Des entretiens semi-dirigés et des groupes de discussion (focus groups) ont permis d’obtenir des informations sur les thématiques suivantes : l’expérience des modifications environnementales, les mesures d’adaptation initiées individuellement ou collectivement, les réactions et les besoins futurs. Les résultats de l’étude mettent en évidence l’enchâssement des aspects économiques et sociétaux dans les enjeux environnementaux et le rôle des représentations et des acteurs qui déterminent le niveau de mobilisation. Enfin, le projet souligne l’importance d’une coordination entre les différentes échelles de gouvernance.
As in other parts of the world, population growth and coastal planning on New Brunswick’s Acadian coastline are contributing to greater vulnerability and deterioration of the natural environment. The rise in sea level and the effects of climate change make the coasts of New Brunswick extremely sensitive, leading to impacts that are increasingly larger. Thus, adaptation to climate change is a major challenge for the province.Here, we describe the results of a comparative study of the experiences and coping strategies of two coastal communities: Cocagne – Grande-Digue and Beaubassin East – Cap-Pelé. Both these territories attract tourism and real estate investors. Semi-structured interviews and focus groups were used to obtain information on the following topics: the experience of environmental change, adaptation measures initiated individually or collectively, reactions and future needs. Results of the study highlight the entrenchment of economic and societal aspects of environmental issues and the role of representations and stakeholders that determine the level of mobilization. Finally, the project emphasizes the importance of coordination between the different levels of governance.
Acadie
Nouveau-Brunswick

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
urn:doi:10.4000/etudescaribeennes.6663
http://journals.openedition.org/etudescaribeennes/6663

Éditeur(s) : Pergamon-elsevier Science Ltd
Résumé : Climate may act on the dispersal and connectivity of marine populations through changes in the oceanic circulation and temperature, and by modifying species' prey and predator distributions. As dispersal and connectivity remain difficult to assess in situ, a first step in studying the effects of climate change can be achieved using biophysical models. To date, only a few biophysical models have been used for this purpose. Here we review these studies and also include results from other recent modelling efforts. We show that increased sea temperature, a major change expected under climate warming, may impact dispersal and connectivity patterns via changes in reproductive phenology (e.g., shift in the spawning season), transport (e.g., reduced pelagic larval duration under faster development rates), mortality (e.g., changes in the exposure to lethal temperatures), and behaviour (e.g.. increased larval swimming speed). Projected changes in circulation are also shown to have large effects on the simulated dispersal and connectivity patterns. Although these biophysical modelling studies are useful preliminary approaches to project the potential effects of climate change, we highlight their current limitations and discuss the way forward, in particular the need for adequate coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical simulations using atmospheric forcing from realistic climate change scenarios. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Progress In Oceanography (0079-6611) (Pergamon-elsevier Science Ltd), 2010-10 , Vol. 87 , N. 1-4 , P. 106-113

Droits : 2010 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00031/14176/11522.pdf
DOI:10.1016/j.pocean.2010.09.005
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00031/14176/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
Many countries are legally obliged to embrace ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management. Reductions in bycatch and physical habitat damage are now commonplace, but mitigating more sophisticated impacts associated with the ecological functions of target fisheries species are in their infancy. Here we model the impacts of a parrotfish fishery on the future state and resilience of Caribbean coral reefs, enabling us to view the tradeoff between harvest and ecosystem health. We find that the implementation of a simple and enforceable size restriction of >30 cm provides a win:win outcome in the short term, delivering both ecological and fisheries benefits and leading to increased yield and greater coral recovery rate for a given harvest rate. However, maintaining resilient coral reefs even until 2030 requires the addition of harvest limitations (<10% of virgin fishable biomass) to cope with a changing climate and induced coral disturbances, even in reefs that are relatively healthy today. Managing parrotfish is not a panacea for protecting coral reefs but can play a role in sustaining the health of reefs and high-quality habitat for reef fisheries.
http://hal.univ-reunion.fr/hal-01369752

hal-01369752
http://hal.univ-reunion.fr/hal-01369752
DOI : 10.1073/pnas.1601529113

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Public Library of Science
Résumé : Climate models predict a range of changes in tropical forest regions, including increased average temperatures, decreased total precipitation, reduced soil moisture and alterations in seasonal climate variations. These changes are directly related to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, primarily CO2. Assessing seasonal forest growth responses to climate is of utmost importance because woody tissues, produced by photosynthesis from atmospheric CO2, water and light, constitute the main component of carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystem. In this paper, we combine intra-annual tree growth measurements from published tree growth data and the corresponding monthly climate data for 25 pan-tropical forest sites. This meta-analysis is designed to find the shared climate drivers of tree growth and their relative importance across pan-tropical forests in order to improve carbon uptake models in a global change context. Tree growth reveals significant intra-annual seasonality at seasonally dry sites or in wet tropical forests. Of the overall variation in tree growth, 28.7% was explained by the site effect, i.e. the tree growth average per site. The best predictive model included four climate variables: precipitation, solar radiation (estimated with extrasolar radiation reaching the atmosphere), temperature amplitude and relative soil water content. This model explained more than 50% of the tree growth variations across tropical forests. Precipitation and solar radiation are the main seasonal drivers of tree growth, causing 19.8% and 16.3% of the tree growth variations. Both have a significant positive association with tree growth. These findings suggest that forest productivity due to tropical tree growth will be reduced in the future if climate extremes, such as droughts, become more frequent.
ISSN: 1932-6203

hal-01268529
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01268529
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01268529/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01268529/file/journal.pone.0092337.PDF
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0092337

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier Masson
Résumé :  
Modeling soil water availability for tropical trees is a prerequisite to predicting the future impact of climate change on tropical forests. In this paper we develop a discrete-time deterministic water balance model adapted to tropical rainforest climates, and we validate it on a large dataset that includes micrometeorological and soil parameters along a topographic gradient in a lowland forest of French Guiana. The model computes daily water fluxes (rainfall interception, drainage, tree transpiration and soil plus understorey evapotranspiration) and soil water content using three input variables: daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and solar radiation. A novel statistical approach is employed that uses Time Domain Reflectometer (TDR) soil moisture data to estimate water content at permanent wilting point and at field capacity, and root distribution. Inaccuracy of the TDR probes and other sources of uncertainty are taken into account by model calibration through a Bayesian framework. Model daily output includes relative extractable water, REW, i.e. the daily available water standardized by potential available water. The model succeeds in capturing temporal variations in REW regardless of topographic context. The low Root Mean Square Error of Predictions suggests that the model captures the most important drivers of soil water dynamics, i.e. water refilling and root water extraction. Our model thus provides a useful tool to explore the response of tropical forests to climate scenarios of changing rainfall regime and intensity.
ISSN: 0168-1923

hal-01032181
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01032181
DOI : 10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.04.012

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : Poster
The Lesser Caucasus in Armenia is an active volcanic and tectonic zone which resulted from the collision of the Arabian and the Eurasian plates since Neogene times. The During Quaternary, Lesser Caucasus was uplifted (0.3 mm/yr; Mitchell and Westaway, 1999) and experienced extensional tectonics times. Large lakes developed in graben structures. The diatomitic sequences of the Shamb paleo-lake (South Armenia) offer a rare opportunity to give new insights of Western Asia paleo-climate. Based on macroflora analysis, Bruch and Gabrielyan (2002) proposed a cooling and drying general climate trend through Pleistocene times in relation with a general uplift of the chain. Several questions have to be answer for this poorly investigated region. Did the climate record humid glacials and arid interglacials as suggested northward in Kazakhstan? What are the vegetation and climate responses to orbital parameters and to the monsoon? Moreover the lesser Caucasus is known as the entrance way used by the first hominids in Eurasia during Pleistocene time. How was the environment at this time? We present an integrated palynological, 40Ar/39Ar isotopic and magnetostratigraphic study for the most complete section (Joannin et al., in press). 40Ar/39Ar dating of two volcaniclastic layers provided ages of 1.24 ± 0.03 and 1.16 ± 0.02 Ma (2. Magnetostratigraphic data show that the entire Shamb section is of reversed polarity which correlates with part of the Matuyama period (1.785-1.070 Ma). Pollen assemblages and macroremains diversity revealed an alternation of glacial and interglacial phases that are compared with climate changes inferred from the global isotopic curve. The Shamb section ranges from approximately 1.300 to 1.080 Ma in age (marine isotopic stages 40 to 31). The vegetation of the Lesser Caucasus developed in a mosaic pattern in a Pleistocene continental, mostly arid climate, similar to the present-day climate. The vegetation changes record a dominant climate response to the obliquity orbital parameter. The influence of precession could not be established from the Shamb data. Pollen and macroflora both indicate that glacial periods were cold and dry and that interglacials were warm with local humidity. The early Pleistocene climatic model for Western Asia is thus similar to the climatic model for the Mediterranean area. Bruch, A., Gabrielyan, I.G., 2002. Quantitative data of the Neogene climatic development in Armenia and Nakhichevan. Acta Universitatis Carolinae – Geologica 46, 41–48. Joannin, S., Cornée, J.J., Münch, P., Fornari, M., Vasiliev, J., Krijgsman, W., Nahapetyan, S., Gabrielyan, Y., Ollivier, V., Roiron, P., Chataîgnier, C. In press. Early Pleistocene climatic cycles in continental deposits of the Lesser Caucasus of Armenia inferred from palynology, magnetostratigraphy, and 40Ar/39Ar dating. Earth and Planetary Science Letters. Mitchell, J., Westaway, R., 1999. Chronology of Neogene and Quaternary uplift and magmatism in the Caucasus: constraints from K-Ar dating of volcanism in Armenia. Tectonophysics 304, 157–186.
EGU Eurasian Climate and Tectonics
Vienne, Austria

hal-00481799
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00481799

Résumé : En 2013, Le Groupe d'experts Intergouvernemental sur l'Evolution du Climat (GIEC) publie son cinquième rapport concernant les changements climatiques. Il y est souligné que le réchauffement climatique est sans équivoque, et que de nouvelles émissions de gaz à effet de serre impliqueront une poursuite du réchauffement et des changements affectant toutes les composantes du système climatique. En région tropicale, une hausse de la température, ainsi qu'une intensification des événements de sécheresse et de pluviométrie extrêmes sont à prévoir. C'est dans ce contexte que s'inscrit ce travail, dont le but est d'étudier la réponse de la forêt tropicale à ces changements climatiques prédits en Guyane Française. Pour ce faire, j'ai utilisé les données du dispositif de suivi forestier de Paracou pour construire un modèle de dynamique individuel basé sur les traits fonctionnels des arbres. Un modèle de mortalité a d'abord été réalisé puis couplé à un modèle de croissance.Le modèle couplé ainsi construit permet de modéliser la croissance et la mortalité des arbres sur un pas de temps de 2 ans tout en tenant compte de leur ontogénie et de leurs traits fonctionnels. Ce modèle a d'abord été appliqué aux essences commerciales de Guyane Française en forêt naturelle et exploitée en y ajoutant un indice de stress hydrique. Ceci permet de montrer que le stress hydrique fait baisser la croissance et augmenter la mortalité, tandis que l'exploitation a l'effet inverse. Malgré le signal commun, différentes réponses sont observées selon les espèces. Le modèle a ensuite été appliqué à la communauté en forêt naturelle pour identifier les drivers climatiques et les processus impactés. Il ressort que la croissance est impactée par le stress hydrique et la température, et que la mortalité est impactée par le stress hydrique et la pluviométrie totale.Ces résultats ont enfin permis de construire un modèle complet de dynamique forestière climat dépendant, et de simuler l'évolution d'une communauté pendant un siècle selon différents scénarios correspondant aux prédictions du GIEC. Les simulations mettent en évidence une très forte diminution de la croissance, ainsi qu'une plus faible diminution de la mortalité. Ceci entraine une diminution notable de la surface terrière, du diamètre quadratique et de la biomasse fraiche. Une analyse de sensibilité montre que ces changements sont principalement dus à l'augmentation sévère des températures prédites pour le siècle à venir. Des pistes de réflexion sur les enjeux de modélisation et les échelles considérées sont proposées en discussion de ce travail.
In 2013 the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) publishes its fifth report. This report underlines that an increase of temperature and a strengthening of drought and extreme rainfall are expected in tropical regions. This work was made in this context of climate changes, and aimed to study the response of the rainforest to predicted climate changes. To do this, i used the data from the study site of Paracou French Guiana to build an individual based dynamics model based on the functional traits of trees. This model was first applied to species with a commercial interest in French Guiana, in natural and logged forest and adding a water stress index as predictor. Water stress decreases growth and increases mortality, while logging had the opposite effect. The model was then applied to the community in natural forest for identifying potential climate drivers and impacted processes. Growth is impacted by the water stress and temperature and mortality is imp acted by the water stress and the total rainfall. These results allowed us to build a climate dependent model of forest dynamics and to run simulations of the evolution of a community under different scenarios for the next century. Simulations showed a decrease of growth and a small decrease of mortality. This resulted in a substantial decrease of basal area, squared diameter and fresh biomass.

http://www.theses.fr/2014AGUY0802/document

Éditeur(s) : EDP Sciences
Résumé : Market position and its evolution were analysed in nine key fish and cephalopod species subject to long-term changes, using the Bay of Biscay fisheries as a case study. Although such long term changes have already been documented, and in some cases shown to be related to the impacts of fishing, changes in the physical environment, or both, relatively little work has been devoted to their potential consequences in economic terms. The nature and extent of these consequences was determined in the present study by looking at the composition of the affected fish production, and the status of different fish products on the markets. We propose a methodology to characterize market position for this set of nine species. The selected species represent a significant part of the gross turnover of French fishing fleets operating in the bay. These species were characterized in terms of their potential sensitivity to fishing and changes in environmental conditions due to global warming. We separated species potentially positively (Engraulis encrasicolus and Lophius budegassa) and negatively affected (Pollachius pollachius and Lophius piscatorius) by warming. Evolution of the value of production of the nine species was then depicted using analysis of macro-economic index (production and potential consumption) and price indices. This revealed the relatively high sensitivity of domestic production to the market crisis that occurred in France in the early 1990s, compared to imported and exported products. The relative position of individual species, with respect to the market and its evolution between 1990 and 2005, was analyzed by multi-factorial analysis. Results derived from the analysis clearly distinguish two groups of species, the first characterized by higher prices (monkfish, Nephrops, sole, seabass) and the second by larger volumes available on the French market (pollack, hake, anchovy, sardine, cuttlefish). We conclude that a major part (69 to 87%) of the gross turnover associated with catches of these fish species in the Bay of Biscay remains potentially unaffected by long-term changes related to climate.
Aquatic Living Resources (0990-7440) (EDP Sciences), 2008-07 , Vol. 21 , N. 3 , P. 307-316

Droits : EDP Sciences, IFREMER, IRD 2008
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2008/publication-4716.pdf
DOI:10.1051/alr:2008047
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/4716/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD MDPI
Résumé : International audience
Objectives: We propose a novel approach to examine vulnerability in the relationship between heat and years of life lost and apply to neighborhood social disparities in Montreal and Paris. Methods: We used historical data from the summers of 1990 through 2007 for Montreal and from 2004 through 2009 for Paris to estimate daily years of life lost social disparities (DYLLD), summarizing social inequalities across groups. We used Generalized Linear Models to separately estimate relative risks (RR) for DYLLD in association with daily mean temperatures in both cities. We used 30 climate scenarios of daily mean temperature to estimate future temperature distributions (2021-2050). We performed random effect meta-analyses to assess the impact of climate change by climate scenario for each city and compared the impact of climate change for the two cities using a meta-regression analysis. Results: We show that an increase in ambient temperature leads to an increase in social disparities in daily years of life lost. The impact of climate change on DYLLD attributable to temperature was of 2.06 (95% CI: 1.90, 2.25) in Montreal and 1.77 (95% CI: 1.61, 1.94) in Paris. The city explained a difference of 0.31 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.49) on the impact of climate change. Conclusion: We propose a new analytical approach for estimating vulnerability in the relationship between heat and health. Our results suggest that in Paris and Montreal, health disparities related to heat impacts exist today and will increase in the future
ISSN: 1660-4601

hal-01207279
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01207279
DOI : 10.3390/ijerph120911869
PUBMED : 26402690