Éditeur(s) : Université de Brest
Résumé : The channel-lobe transition zone has been studied in two turbiditic systems: the Amazon channel-mouth lobe complex at the termination of the last eight channel-levee systems and the Neochannel termination, the last active channel of the Petit-Rhone turbidite system. - In the two cases, the internal geometry and stacking pattern of the deposits show a significant control of the configuration (size and shape) of the receiving basins, their morphology (gradients and subtle gradient changes), and their degree of confinement. - The Amazon and Petit-Rhone systems, with lobes built after the Last Glacial Maximum and the ensuing sea-level rise, evidence the major impact of external forcings (climatic events and eustatic variations) that induce variations in sediment fluxes delivered to the deep basin and therefore exert a control on channel-mouth lobes construction. The channel-mouth lobes of the Amazon and Petit-Rhone systems, even if they are located at great distances from the river mouths, at the termination of the turbidite systems and in areas characterised by subtle morphological variations, are both constrained by combined internal (accommodation and compensation) and external factors (post-glacial deconnection between the fluvial system and the deep basin).
La zone de transition chenal-levées/lobes a été étudiée dans 2 systèmes turbiditiques : le complexe de lobes à la terminaison des 8 derniers chenaux de l'éventail de l'Amazone et la terminaison du Néochenal, dernier chenal de l'éventail du Petit-Rhône. - Dans les deux cas, l'agencement des dépôts et leur évolution dans l'espace et le temps révèlent un fort contrôle de la configuration des réceptacles (taille et forme), de la morphologie des fonds (pentes et taux de changement des pentes) et du degré de confinement. - Les systèmes de l'Amazone et du Petit-Rhône, dont les lobes se sont construits à partir du Dernier Maximum Glaciaire et lors de la remontée du niveau marin qui a suivi, ont en outre permis de souligner l'impact majeur, sur la mise en place des lobes terminaux, de certains forçages externes (événements climatiques et variations eustatiques), qui déterminent les variations des flux sédimentaires arrivant au bassin. Ainsi, bien que situés à des distances considérables des sources fluviatiles et dans des zones distales où les variations de relief sont très ténues, les lobes terminaux de ces deux grands systèmes turbiditiques se sont révélés contraints à la fois par des processus internes (processus de compensation) et par des processus externes (déconnexion post-glaciaire du fleuve et du bassin).

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2008/these-6796.pdf
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/6796/

Éditeur(s) : Université des Antilles Études caribéennes
Résumé : Le changement climatique et le développement durable du tourisme représentent des enjeux majeurs pour l’avenir du tourisme dans plusieurs régions du monde, notamment aux Antilles françaises. Aussi, la présente étude se propose d’analyser et d’évaluer les effets économiques de la variation climatique sur le secteur touristique à la Guadeloupe et à la Martinique, pour quatre raisons essentielles : (a) le secteur du tourisme et les petites économies insulaires qui en dépendent, comme celles de la Guadeloupe et de la Martinique, sont fortement sensibles à la variabilité et au changement du climat. (b) la vulnérabilité intrinsèque de ces petites destinations et de leurs infrastructures à l’élévation du niveau de la mer et aux évènements climatiques extrêmes (cyclones, inondations, sécheresse), (c) la haute dépendance de l’industrie touristique régionale à l’utilisation des énergies fossiles, (d) enfin, en raison du fait qu’aucune évaluation économique chiffrée n’a été produite à ce jour sur les effets économiques de la la variation climatique sur le secteur touristique à la Guadeloupe et à la Martinique. Par conséquent, il importe de cerner dans ces deux régions les conséquences possibles de ce changement au plan touristique et d’envisager le cas échéant des stratégies d’adaptation et d’atténuation. Ce faisant, cette étude se fixe quatre objectifs principaux : (a) examiner les facteurs qui influencent la demande et l’offre de tourisme aux Antilles Françaises ; (b) effectuer à l’aide d’un modèle de demande touristique, l’impact économique de ces facteurs sur le nombre d’arrivées ainsi que sur la dépense touristique dans ces régions ; (c) évaluer et projeter en termes de coût, les effets du changement climatique sur l’activité touristique ; et (d) proposer aux autorités locales, des stratégies d’adaptation et d’atténuation face au défi du changement climatique.L’évaluation de ces différents effets est abordée ici à l’aide d’un modèle structurel de base (MSB) et d’un modèle structurel général (MSG), inspirés tous deux des travaux de Harvey (1990) pour capter à l’aide d’un indice climato-touristique, les éléments du climat qui impactent l’activité touristique. Cet indice synthétique est calculé en se basant sur les données climatiques du passé selon deux scénarios climatiques proposés par le groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climat (GIEC) – un scénario pessimiste A2, et un scénario optimiste B2-. Les résultats issus de l’application de ces modèles montrent que les caractéristiques climato-touristiques de la Guadeloupe et de la Martinique subiront vraisemblablement un déclin à long terme, et devraient au plan économique impacter négativement le secteur touristique de ces destinations, se traduisant par des pertes à la fois d’attractivité et de chiffre d’affaires du secteur. Les pertes subies par le tourisme en raison du changement climatique s’élèveraient à l’horizon 2100, et selon le scénario A2, à 45 millions d’euros à la Guadeloupe soit 0,7% de son PIB 2004, et à 60 millions d’euros à la Martinique soit 0,8% de son PIB 2004.
Climate change and the tourism sustainable development are important challenges for tourism future trends of many countries, including the French West Indies. Therefore, this study provides an evaluation of the likely economic effects of climate change on tourism sector in Guadeloupe and Martinique, and identifies four reasons why these countries should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) Guadeloupe and Martinique are island destinations very sensitive to climate change; (b) their intrinsic vulnerability and their infrastructure to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); (c) the high dependence of their tourist industry on carbon-based fuels; and (d) up to date, no economic evaluation of climate change on tourism sector in Guadeloupe and Martinique is provided. Therefore, this study attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors on the economy of the French West Indies. There are four main objectives in this study. The first is to examine the factors that influence the demand and supply tourism in Guadeloupe and Martinique. The second is to forecast the impact of climate change to tourism arrivals until 2050 under two scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) – A2: pessimistic scenario and B2: optimistic scenario-. Third is to evaluate and forecast the cost of climate change to the tourism sector until 2100. The fourth is to recommend to authorities the adaptation and mitigation strategies that can be undertaken by the tourism sector to French West Indies to address climate change.Following Harvey (1990), a Basic Structural Model (BSM) and a General structural Model (GSM), are employed to model tourist arrivals to Martinique. A tourism climatic index (TCI) conceptualized by Mieczkowski (1985) is used in this model to capture the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience. The results suggest that under both scenarios, the island’s key tourism climatic features will probably decline, and therefore, negatively impact on the destination experience of visitors. Tourism losses due to climate change are projected in 2100 to 45 millions euros in Guadeloupe, or 0.7% of its GDP, and to 60 millions euros in Martinique, or 0,8% of its GDP.
Guadeloupe
Martinique

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
urn:doi:10.4000/etudescaribeennes.6750
http://journals.openedition.org/etudescaribeennes/6750

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union (EGU)
Résumé : International audience
Pollen and clay mineralogical analyses of a Holocene sequence from Sebkha Boujmel (southern Tunisia) traces the climatic and environmental dynamics in the lower arid bioclimatic zone over the last 8000 years. During the Mid- to Late Holocene transition, between 8 and 3 ka, a succession of five wet/dry oscillations is recorded. An intense arid event occurs between 5.7 and 4.6 ka. This episode marks the onset of a long-term aridification trend with a progressive retreat of Mediterranean woody xerophytic vegetation and of grass steppes. It ends with the establishment of pre-desert ecosystems around 3 ka. The millennial-scale climate change recorded in the data from Sebkha Boujmel is consistent with records from the south and east Mediterranean, as well as with climatic records from the desert region for the end of the African Humid Period (AHP). Eight centennial climatic events are recorded at Sebkha Boujmel and these are contemporary with those recorded in the Mediterranean and in the Sahara. They indicate a clear coupling between the southern Mediterranean and the Sahara before 3 ka. The event at 4.2 ka is not evidenced and the link between events recorded in Sebkha Boujmel and the North Atlantic Cooling events is clearer from 3 ka onwards. These variations indicate the importance of climatic determinism in the structuring of landscapes, with the establishment of the arid climatic conditions of the Late Holocene. It is only from 3 ka onwards that the dynamic of plant associations is modified by both human activity and climatic variability. The climatic episodes identified during the historic period indicate strong regionalisation related to the differential impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) on the Mediterranean basin. The local human impact on regional ecosystems is recorded in the form of episodes of intensification of pastoral and/or agricultural activities. The development of olive production and of several taxa associated with agriculture attest to increasing sedentism among human populations during Classical Antiquity. The significant increase in Artemisia (wormwood) between 1.1 and 0.8 ka (850–1150 AD) is linked to intensive pastoral activity, associated with heightened interannual and/or seasonal climatic instability. A complete re-shaping of the landscape is recorded during the 20th century. The remarkable expansion of the olive tree, and the deterioration of regional ecosystems with the spread of desert species, is linked to recent local socio-economic changes in Tunisia.
ISSN: 1814-9324

hal-01319967
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01319967
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01319967/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01319967/file/cp-12-1339-2016.pdf
DOI : 10.5194/cp-12-1339-2016

Éditeur(s) : Université des Antilles Études caribéennes
Résumé : Comme dans d’autres régions du monde, la croissance démographique et l’accentuation des activités côtières au Canada entraînent une dégradation continue des écosystèmes et de la biodiversité. L’aménagement côtier contribue essentiellement à la vulnérabilité et à la détérioration des littoraux. Ce constat concerne le littoral acadien du Nouveau-Brunswick. Au-delà de ces pressions démographiques et de l’urbanisation sur les zones littorales, l'élévation du niveau marin et l'augmentation des températures (effets du changement et des variations climatiques) provoquent des impacts vérifiables : l’intensité des ondes de tempêtes, la dégradation des sols par l’érosion, etc. Ainsi, l’adaptation au changement climatique constitue un enjeu de taille pour la province du Nouveau-Brunswick. C’est pourquoi cet article propose d’étudier les impacts de ces changements auprès de deux régions côtières du littoral acadien et d’apprendre des expériences de chacun pour renforcer leur résilience. La recherche souhaite s’inscrire dans une nouvelle forme d’engagement communautaire qui prend en compte des aspects de la « gouvernance », de l’« aménagement du territoire » et de la « cohésion sociale ». L’article tente d’avoir une meilleure compréhension de l’enchâssement des aspects économiques et sociétaux dans les enjeux environnementaux.
As in other parts of the world, demographic growth and an increased use of coastal zones in Canada lead to a degradation of coastal ecosystems and a loss of biodiversity. Coastal development contributes in large part to the vulnerability and deterioration of coastal zones. This is very clearly seen in the case of the Acadian coast of New Brunswick. In addition to stresses from demographic growth and urbanization, the coastal zone is affected by sea level rise, temperature increases and other impacts of climate change such as increased climate variability, which lead to measurable effects such as an increase in storm intensity or increased coastal erosion. Thus, adaptation to climate change constitutes a major challenge for the province of New Brunswick. It is in this context that we propose to analyze the impacts of climate change in two sites on the Acadian coast and to profit from both experiences in order to increase the resilience of the communities through mutual learning. The research undertaken here aims at contributing to a new form of community engagement that takes “governance”, “land use planning” and “social cohesion” into account. The article aims at a better understanding of the interplay of social and economic aspects in this environmental problem.
Canada
Nouveau-Brunswick

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
urn:doi:10.4000/etudescaribeennes.6970
http://journals.openedition.org/etudescaribeennes/6970

Éditeur(s) : Elsevier
Résumé : Evidence has accumulated that climate variability influences the state and functioning of marine ecosystems. At the same time increasing pressure from exploitation and other human activities has been shown to impact exploited and non-exploited species and potentially modify ecosystem structure. There has been a tendency among marine scientists to pose the question as a dichotomy, i.e., whether (1) "natural" climate variability or (2) fishery exploitation bears the primary responsibility for population declines in fish populations and the associated ecosystem changes. However, effects of both climate and exploitation are probably substantially involved in most cases. More importantly, climate and exploitation interact in their effects, such that climate may cause failure in a fishery management scheme but that fishery exploitation may also disrupt the ability of a resource population to withstand, or adjust to, climate changes. Here, we review how exploitation, by altering the structure of populations and ecosystems, can modify their ability to respond to climate. The demographic effects of fishing (removal of large-old individuals) can have substantial consequences on the capacity of populations to buffer climate variability through various pathways (direct demographic effects, effects on migration, parental effects). In a similar way, selection of population sub-units within metapopulations may also lead to a reduction in the capacity of populations to withstand climate variability and change. At the ecosystem level, reduced complexity by elimination of species, such as might occur by fishing, may be destabilizing and could lead to reduced resilience to perturbations. Differential exploitation of marine resources could also promote increased turnover rates in marine ecosystems, which would exacerbate the effects of environmental changes. Overall (and despite the specificities of local situations) reduction in marine diversity at the individual, population and ecosystem levels will likely lead to a reduction in the resilience and an increase in the response of populations and ecosystems to future climate variability and change. Future management schemes will have to consider the structure and functioning of populations and ecosystems in a wider sense in order to maximise the ability of marine fauna to adapt to future climates. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Journal of Marine Systems (0924-7963) (Elsevier), 2010-02 , Vol. 79 , N. 3-4 , P. 403-417

Droits : 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2010/publication-7384.pdf
DOI:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.12.018
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/7384/

Éditeur(s) : Springer
Résumé : We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.
Climate Dynamics (0930-7575) (Springer), 2013-05 , Vol. 40 , N. 9-10 , P. 2123-2165

Droits : The Author(s) 2013. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00138/24966/23079.pdf
DOI:10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00138/24966/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
The challenge is to implement research that can estimate the consequences ofclimate changes in terms of impact on terrestrial environments and resources.Emphasis should be placed on regions dependent on natural resources and forwhich demographic pressure is strong. Simulations obtained from climate modelprojections (using different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs))predict that the Mediterranean basin and its southern periphery are particularlyvulnerable to water resources and environmental impact (IPCC, AR5, 2013).An annual rainfall decrease by 30% is found for the projection period 2070-2099(IPCC, AR5, 2013) associated with a decrease in water resources by 30 to 50%(Milano, 2012). In addition, several studies using regional atmospheric modelsindicate an increase in the precipitation inter-annual variability with extremeevents and a spatial heterogeneous signature, superimposed on a decrease in thetotal precipitation amount (Giorgi and Lionello, 2008; Raible et al. 2010).Currently, regional climate projections are highly sensitive to the climate modelused. In particular, spatial resolution as well as local climate conditions seemto impact significantly on the simulations (Jacob et al. 2014).The Mediterranean region, at the interface between arid and temperate climateswith several mountainous areas, is a complex climate system affected by theinteractions between mid-latitude and sub-tropical processes. In this context,Morocco, located at the transition between a temperate climate to the North anda tropical climate to the south constitutes a key area for an impact and sensitivitystudy to global climate changes. The climate is influenced by the Atlantic Ocean,the Mediterranean Sea and the Sahara, together with a very steep orography inthe Atlas region. The precipitation distribution is therefore characterised by greatspatial variability, and exhibits a marked seasonality, a strong inter-annualvariability (Ouda et al. 2005) and in general a pronounced gradient from northto south and west to east. At a broader scale, Morocco is located on the subtropicalsubsidence path and between the Acores High and the Saharan Low (Agoussine,2003). Several studies have also identified strong links with inter-annualprecipitation variability and NAO index (Knippertz, 2003) as well as remoteclimate modes (Esper et al. 2007).Continental climate variability at a local/regional scale, if it is to be integratedin climate predictions, needs to be supported by long-term observation.Meteorological stations in Morocco provide climatic data mainly for the last40 years with only a few stations located in the mountainous region (Tramblayet al. 2012; 2013; Driouech et al. 2010). This climate database is also supportedby the IAEA network providing stations for which isotope tracers have beenapplied to daily/monthly rain and water vapour samples over 2 to 3 years between2000 and 2004. Besides the poor coverage of instrumented areas, lacustrinesystems can provide a climatic data set that offers access to short and long-termtime series of climate parameters when knowledge of modern lake water balanceis combined with lacustrine sedimentary-climate records. Lake sediment recordsideally provide high resolution climate/environmental information of the last10,000 years (Magny et al. 2013). This time interval (corresponding to theHolocene) is a key period to investigate short and long-term climate variabilityand to improve prediction in a warming climate.In this study we present an integrated approach focusing on a mountainous lake(Aguelmam Azigza). The modern lake system study is based on site monitoring(2012-2016) and available regional hydro-climatic data. These data show thatlake level changes during the instrumented period were mainly driven byprecipitation following the high inter-annual variability. These data are thencompared with accurately dated short sediment cores retrieved in the same lake.Micro-scale geochemical and sedimentological analyses of these sequencesenable us to identify various sedimentary facies that can be linked with periodsof high (low) lake levels over the past decades.
The Mediterranean Region under Climate ChangeLa méditerranée face au changement climatique

insu-01394690
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01394690
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01394690/document
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01394690/file/Vidaletal.2016-COP22-Chap1.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Public Library of Science
Résumé : International audience
Understanding the factors underlying the spatio-temporal distribution of infectious diseases provides useful information regarding their prevention and control. Dengue fever spatio-temporal patterns result from complex interactions between the virus, the host, and the vector. These interactions can be influenced by environmental conditions. Our objectives were to analyse dengue fever spatial distribution over New Caledonia during epidemic years, to identify some of the main underlying factors, and to predict the spatial evolution of dengue fever under changing climatic conditions, at the 2100 horizon. We used principal component analysis and support vector machines to analyse and model the influence of climate and socio-economic variables on the mean spatial distribution of 24,272 dengue cases reported from 1995 to 2012 in thirty-three communes of New Caledonia. We then modelled and estimated the future evolution of dengue incidence rates using a regional downscaling of future climate projections. The spatial distribution of dengue fever cases is highly heterogeneous. The variables most associated with this observed heterogeneity are the mean temperature, the mean number of people per premise, and the mean percentage of unemployed people, a variable highly correlated with people's way of life. Rainfall does not seem to play an important role in the spatial distribution of dengue cases during epidemics. By the end of the 21st century, if temperature increases by approximately 3°C, mean incidence rates during epidemics could double. In New Caledonia, a subtropical insular environment, both temperature and socio-economic conditions are influencing the spatial spread of dengue fever. Extension of this study to other countries worldwide should improve the knowledge about climate influence on dengue burden and about the complex interplay between different factors. This study presents a methodology that can be used as a step by step guide to model dengue spatial heterogeneity in other countries.
ISSN: 1935-2727

Droits : http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
pasteur-01247037
https://hal-riip.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-01247037
https://hal-riip.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-01247037/document
https://hal-riip.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-01247037/file/journal.pntd.0004211.pdf
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004211

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union (EGU)
Résumé : International audience
Holocene climate fluctuations and human activity since the Neolithic have shaped present-day Mediter-ranean environments. Separating anthropogenic effects from climatic impacts to better understand Mediterranean pale-oenvironmental changes over the last millennia remains a challenging issue. High-resolution pollen analyses were un-dertaken on two cores from the Palavasian lagoon system (Hérault, southern France). These records allow reconstruction of vegetation dynamics over the last 4500 years. Results are compared with climatic, historical and archeological archives. A long-term aridification trend is highlighted during the late Holocene, and three superimposed arid events are recorded at 4600–4300, 2800–2400 and 1300–1100 cal BP. These periods of high-frequency climate variability coincide in time with the rapid climatic events observed in the Atlantic Ocean (Bond et al., 2001). From the Bronze Age (4000 cal BP) to the end of the Iron Age (around 2000 cal BP), the spread of sclerophyllous taxa and loss of forest cover result from anthropogenic impact. Classical Antiquity is characterized by a major reforestation event related to the concentration of rural activity and populations in coastal plains leading to forest recovery in the mountains. A major regional deforestation occurred at the beginning of the High Middle Ages. Around 1000 cal BP, forest cover is minimal while the cover of olive, chestnut and walnut expands in relation to increasing human influence. The present-day vegetation dominated by Mediterranean shrubland and pines has been in existence since the beginning of the 20th century.
ISSN: 1814-9324

hal-01447627
https://hal-univ-tlse2.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01447627
https://hal-univ-tlse2.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01447627/document
https://hal-univ-tlse2.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01447627/file/Azuara%20et%20al%202015_cor.pdf
DOI : 10.5194/cp-11-1769-2015

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union
Résumé : International audience
The seasonal climate drivers of the carbon cycle in tropical forests remain poorly known, although these forests account for more carbon assimilation and storage than any other terrestrial ecosystem. Based on a unique combination of seasonal pan-tropical data sets from 89 experimental sites (68 include aboveground wood productivity measurements and 35 litter productivity measurements), their associated canopy photosynthetic capacity (enhanced vegetation index, EVI) and climate, we ask how carbon assimilation and aboveground allocation are related to climate seasonality in tropical forests and how they interact in the seasonal carbon cycle. We found that canopy photosynthetic capacity seasonality responds positively to precipitation when rainfall is < 2000 mm yr(-1) (water-limited forests) and to radiation otherwise (light-limited forests). On the other hand, independent of climate limitations, wood productivity and litterfall are driven by seasonal variation in precipitation and evapotranspiration, respectively. Consequently, light-limited forests present an asynchronism between canopy photosynthetic capacity and wood productivity. First-order control by precipitation likely indicates a decrease in tropical forest productivity in a drier climate in water-limited forest, and in current light-limited forest with future rainfall < 2000 mm yr(-1).
ISSN: 1726-4170

hal-01557759
https://hal.univ-lorraine.fr/hal-01557759
https://hal.univ-lorraine.fr/hal-01557759/document
https://hal.univ-lorraine.fr/hal-01557759/file/bg-13-2537-2016.pdf
DOI : 10.5194/bg-13-2537-2016

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
In this work, we have led an analysis of the error of different global solar radiation prediction models according to the global solar radiation variability. Different predictions models where performed such as machine learning techniques (Neural Networks, Gaussian processes and support vector machines) in order to forecast the Global Horizontal solar Irradiance (GHI). We also include in this study a simple linear autoregressive (AR) model as well as two naive models based on persistence of the GHI and persistence of the clear sky index (denoted herein scaled persistence model). The models are calibrated and tested with data from three 3 French islands: Corsica (42.15°N ; 9.08°E), Guadeloupe (16.25°N ; 61.58°W) and Reunion (21.15°S ; 55.5°E). Guadeloupe and Reunion are located in a subtropical climatic zone whereas Corsica is in a tempered climatic zone. Hence the global solar radiation variation differs significantly. The output error of the different models was quantified by the nRSME. In order to quantify the influence of the global solar radiation variability on the forecasting models error we performed a classification of typical days according to different typical days. Each class of typical day is defined by a variation of global solar radiation rate. For each class and for each location, the selected forecasting models where performed and the error was quantified. With this analysis a global solar radiation forecasting models can be selected according to the location, the global solar radiation fluctuations and hence the meteorological conditions. INTRODUCTION Large and frequent variations of solar radiation can be observed in tropical climates with amplitudes reaching 800 W/m² and occurring within a short time interval, from few seconds to few minutes, according to the geographical location. Such fluctuations can be due for example to the dynamic of clouds which can be very complex and depend on cloud type, size, speed and spatial distribution and, more generally, due to some specific local meteorological conditions. Thus, the solar energy forecasting, a process used to predict the amount of solar energy available in the current and near terms, might be a difficult task. Some of the best predictors found in literature are Autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) [5,7,8], Bayesian inferences [9,10], Markov chains [11], k-Nearest-Neighbors predictors [12] or artificial intelligence techniques as the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) [9-11]. Although these methodologies are potentially good in many areas, we observed in our previous studies on global radiation prediction [9,13,14] that the simple model based on the persistence of the clear sky index gives often very good results with acceptable errors [15] for short term forecasting time horizon (<= 1 hour). The goal of this paper is to determinate the influence of solar radiation variability regarding different classes of days on the expected error provided by different forecasting methods that the modeller can possibly implement. The paper is organized as follow: Section 2 describes the data we have used. Section 3 exposes the classification methodology and the results obtained for the three studied locations. In the two following sections, the forecasting methods are exposed and then 3 the errors on the forecasting results for each location and for each class are exposed.
The Third Southern African Solar Energy Conference (SASEC2015)
Kruger National Park, South Africa

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
hal-01099487
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01099487
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01099487/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01099487/file/article%20SASEC.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Public Library of Science
Résumé : Climate models for the coming century predict rainfall reduction in the Amazonian region, including change in water availability for tropical rainforests. Here, we test the extent to which climate variables related to water regime, temperature and irradiance shape the growth trajectories of neotropical trees. . We developed a diameter growth model explicitly designed to work with asynchronous climate and growth data. Growth trajectories of 205 individual trees from 54 neotropical species censused every 2 months over a 4-year period were used to rank 9 climate variables and find the best predictive model. . About 9% of the individual variation in tree growth was imputable to the seasonal variation of climate. Relative extractable water was the main predictor and alone explained more than 60% of the climate effect on tree growth, i.e. 5.4% of the individual variation in tree growth. Furthermore, the global annual tree growth was more dependent on the diameter increment at the onset of the rain season than on the duration of dry season. . The best predictive model included 3 climate variables: relative extractable water, minimum temperature and irradiance. The root mean squared error of prediction (0.035 mm.d(-1)) was slightly above the mean value of the growth (0.026 mm.d(-1)). . Amongst climate variables, we highlight the predominant role of water availability in determining seasonal variation in tree growth of neotropical forest trees and the need to include these relationships in forest simulators to test, in silico, the impact of different climate scenarios on the future dynamics of the rainforest.
ISSN: 1932-6203

hal-01268350
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01268350
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0034074
PRODINRA : 215438
PUBMED : 22506012

Éditeur(s) : Université des Antilles Études caribéennes
Résumé : This study explores weather perceptions, evaluations and behavior of holiday-tourists to the French Caribbean island of La Martinique. Herein, the importance of selected weather parameters for a ‘typical’ summer holiday, for the choice that was made in coming to Martinique and for planned activities is examined. 32 snapshot interviews were held in two brief time periods within a month. Results illustrated slight differences in climate preferences for respondents depending whether they come from a cold or from a warm climate country, that activity patterns seemed overall little influenced by changing weather conditions and that the experienced weather, which was marked by heavy rains in the first data collection period and by changeable weather in the second, appeared to take only a limited impact on return intentions. Albeit the limited possibility of a pilot study to produce valid and reliable findings, variables and factors which are critical to consider when examining weather perceptions and behaviors have been pointed out and presented in a conceptual model for further research.
Cette étude explore les perceptions et les évaluations des conditions météorologiques et les comportements des vacanciers sur l'île de la Martinique. A ce sujet, l´étude examine l'influence de certains paramètres météorologiques sélectionnés sur des vacances d'été «typiques», sur le choix de la destination Martinique et sur les activités envisagées sur lieu. 32 interviews instantanées ont eu lieu en deux courtes périodes de temps pendant un mois. Les résultats illustraient qu´il y avait de légères différences concernant les préférences climatiques selon que les répondants venaient d'un pays au climat froid ou chaud, que les schémas d'activité semblaient généralement peu influencés par les changements météorologiques et que le temps - marquées par de fortes pluies dans la première période de la collecte de données et par un temps variable dans la seconde période - semblait n´avoir qu´un impact limité sur les intentions à revenir à la Martinique. Bien que l´étude pilote n´ait que des possibilités limitées de fournir des résultats valides et fiables, elle identifie les variables et les facteurs qui sont essentiels à considérer lors d´un projet de recherche qui examine la perception des conditions météorologiques par les touristes et les comportements qui en résultent. Ces facteurs sont présentés dans un modèle conceptuel.
Martinique

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
urn:doi:10.4000/etudescaribeennes.5323
http://journals.openedition.org/etudescaribeennes/5323

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Public Library of Science
Résumé : Climate models predict a range of changes in tropical forest regions, including increased average temperatures, decreased total precipitation, reduced soil moisture and alterations in seasonal climate variations. These changes are directly related to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, primarily CO2. Assessing seasonal forest growth responses to climate is of utmost importance because woody tissues, produced by photosynthesis from atmospheric CO2, water and light, constitute the main component of carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystem. In this paper, we combine intra-annual tree growth measurements from published tree growth data and the corresponding monthly climate data for 25 pan-tropical forest sites. This meta-analysis is designed to find the shared climate drivers of tree growth and their relative importance across pan-tropical forests in order to improve carbon uptake models in a global change context. Tree growth reveals significant intra-annual seasonality at seasonally dry sites or in wet tropical forests. Of the overall variation in tree growth, 28.7% was explained by the site effect, i.e. the tree growth average per site. The best predictive model included four climate variables: precipitation, solar radiation (estimated with extrasolar radiation reaching the atmosphere), temperature amplitude and relative soil water content. This model explained more than 50% of the tree growth variations across tropical forests. Precipitation and solar radiation are the main seasonal drivers of tree growth, causing 19.8% and 16.3% of the tree growth variations. Both have a significant positive association with tree growth. These findings suggest that forest productivity due to tropical tree growth will be reduced in the future if climate extremes, such as droughts, become more frequent.
ISSN: 1932-6203

hal-01268529
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01268529
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01268529/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01268529/file/journal.pone.0092337.PDF
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0092337

Éditeur(s) : The National Academy of Sciences of the USA
Résumé : The patterns of variations in fisheries time series are known to result from a complex combination of species and fisheries dynamics all coupled with environmental forcing (including climate, trophic interactions, etc.). Disentangling the relative effects of these factors has been a major goal of fisheries science for both conceptual and management reasons. By examining the variability of 169 tuna and billfish time series of catch and catch per unit effort (CPUE) throughout the Atlantic as well as their linkage to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), we find that the importance of these factors differed according to the spatial scale. At the scale of the entire Atlantic the patterns of variations are primarily spatially structured, whereas at a more regional scale the patterns of variations were primarily related to the fishing gear. Furthermore, the NAO appeared to also structure the patterns of variations of tuna time series, especially over the North Atlantic. We conclude that the patterns of variations in fisheries time series of tuna and billfish only poorly reflect the underlying dynamics of these fish populations; they appear to be shaped by several successive embedded processes, each interacting with each other. Our results emphasize the necessity for scientific data when investigating the population dynamics of large pelagic fishes, because CPUE fluctuations are not directly attributable to change in species' abundance.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (0027-8424) (The National Academy of Sciences of the USA), 2008-04 , Vol. 105 , N. 14 , P. 5420-5425

Droits : 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2008/publication-3984.pdf
DOI:10.1073/pnas.0709034105
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/3984/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Inter-Research
Résumé : International audience
The effects of global change are particularly serious in areas where range shiftsof species are physically constrained such as the Ligurian Sea, which is one ofthe coldest sectors of the Mediterranean. In this basin, historical informationon water temperature (from the sea surface down to 75 m depth) dates backto the 1950s. Early studies also recorded warm-water species occurrence.Thanks to these data we provide the first detailed characterization of watertemperature variation from 1958 up to 2010 in the layer 0–75 m depth. Wecoupled this analysis with the available information on rocky reef epibenthiccommunities (literature review from 1955 to 1964 and field data from 1980 to2010). The analysis of water temperature revealed several patterns of variation:a cooling phase from 1958 to 1980, a phase of rapid warming from 1980 to1990 and a phase of slower warming from 1990 to 2010. Inter-annual variationin temperature increased over the entire period for the water layer down to20 m. Warm-water native and alien species richness increased during thewarming phases. Literature estimates suggest a decrease in warm-water nativespecies richness during the cooling phase. The analysis of quantitative data collectedin the early 1990s and late 2000s indicated a decrease in the cover ofwarm-water native species on shallow rocky reefs and an increase in deeperwaters. We argue that increased inter-annual variation in water temperaturemay disadvantage native warm-water species in shallow waters. Our resultsindicate that the effect of temperature rises in cold, constrained basins may bemore complex than the simple prediction of species changing their geographicalrange according to their thermal limits.
Marine Ecology Progress Series

hal-01239259
https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01239259
DOI : 10.1111/maec.12277

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD MDPI
Résumé : International audience
The future of tropical managed forests is threatened by climate change. In anticipation of the increase in the frequency of drought episodes predicted by climatic models for intertropical regions, it is essential to study commercial trees' resilience and vulnerability to water stress by identifying potential interaction effects between selective logging and stress due to a lack of water. Focusing on 14 species representing a potential or acknowledged commercial interest for wood production in the Guiana Shield, a joint model coupling growth and mortality for each species was parametrized, including a climatic variable related to water stress and the quantity of aboveground biomass lost after logging. For the vast majority of the species, water stress had a negative impact on growth rate, while the impact of logging was positive. The opposite results were observed for the mortality. Combining results from growth and mortality models, we generate vulnerability profiles and ranking from species apparently quite resistant to water stress (Chrysophyllum spp., Goupia glabra Aubl., Qualea rosea Aubl.), even under logging pressure, to highly vulnerable species (Sterculia spp.). In light of our results, forest managers in the Guiana Shield may want to conduct (i) a conservation strategy of the most vulnerable species and (ii) a diversification of the logged species. Conservation of the already-adapted species may also be considered as the most certain way to protect the tropical forests under future climates.
ISSN: 1999-4907

hal-01315432
https://hal-sde.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01315432
DOI : 10.3390/f7050105

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Springer Verlag
Résumé : Coarse woody debris (CWD, dead wood sections a parts per thousand yen10 cm diameter) represents a large store of carbon in tropical forests; however, estimates of the flux of carbon from CWD in these forests remain poorly constrained. The objective of this study was to resolve the dry/wet season response of respiration in CWD (R (cwd)), and investigate the importance of biotic and abiotic factors for predicting the seasonal change of R (cwd) at the ecosystem level. This study presents a 4-month time series of R (cwd) measurements conducted on 42 dead trees (26 species) at the Paracou Research Station in French Guiana. R (cwd) measurements were repeated 13 times on each CWD sample from July to November 2011, spanning the transition from wet to dry season, and then from dry season to the following wet season. Seasonal drought caused monthly R (cwd) to drop by 20.5 +/- A 5.1% over the wet-dry transition. Changes in woody tissue moisture content explained 41.9% of the measured seasonal variability in R (cwd), but 60% of the seasonal variability in mean forest R (cwd) rates could be modelled using surface soil water content. We estimate that R (cwd) is approximately 5% of annual ecosystem respiration (R (eco)) and that seasonal variations in R (cwd) contribute appreciably to seasonal variations of R (eco), and should be included in functional models simulating the response of tropical rainforest ecosystems to current and future climate.
ISSN: 1432-9840

hal-01032431
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01032431
DOI : 10.1007/s10021-013-9684-x

Résumé : Preliminary analysis of the impact of an environmental change on ichtyologic fauna marinates and fishing in Guyanese water enter within the framework of the program CHALOUPE (dynamic Change of the exploited marine biodiversity and the viability of the Fisheries) coordinated by Ifremer Cayenne and financed by the ANR (National Agency of Research). The study focuses on: -analysis temporal variations of various environmental parameters (sea surface temperature and salinity, the phenomenon El Niño) -fish physical characteristics (tolerances of temperature and salinity, maximum height, distribution…) - analysis of the unloadings per unit of effort of the inshore fishing and an economic analysis of the selling price of fish Data are found on data bases and are given by scientists. The statistical studies and the cartographic representations show that there is an increase in temperature of water in Guiana since the end of the Nineties. The model AquaMaps® simulates the potential consequences of this reheating on the fish distribution. Certain stocks of fishing are weakened. For the moment, if the composition of the captures of inshore fishing changes, that seems more due to a change of fishing strategy than due to an impact of the climatic change. In addition, the average value of the capture increased for reason commercial.
Les analyses de l’impact d’un changement environnemental sur la faune ichtyologique marine et la pêche dans les eaux guyanaises entrent dans le cadre du programme CHALOUPE (CHAngement gLObal, dynamiqUe de la biodiversité marine exploitée et de la viabilité des Pêcheries) coordonné par l’Ifremer Cayenne et financé par l’ANR (Agence Nationale de la Recherche). L’étude porte sur : -l’analyse des variations temporelles de différents paramètres environnementaux (température et salinité de surface des eaux, le phénomène El Niño) à l’échelle de quelques décennies -les caractéristiques physiques des poissons (tolérances de températures et de salinité (taille maximum, répartition…) ; -l’analyse des débarquements par unité d’effort de la pêche côtière depuis les années 70 ; -une analyse économique de la pêche ; Les données sont récoltées à partir de bases de données et au près de différents chercheurs. Les études statistiques et les représentations cartographiques démontrent qu’il y a bien une augmentation de température des eaux en Guyane depuis la fin des années 90. Le modèle statistique sous AquaMaps® permet de simuler les conséquences potentielles de ce réchauffement sur la répartition des poissons. Dans un tel contexte, certains stocks de pêche sont fragilisés. Pour le moment, si la composition des captures de la pêche côtière se modifie dans le même temps, cela semble plus du fait de changement de stratégie de pêche que du fait de l’impact du changement climatique. Par ailleurs, la valeur moyenne de la capture a augmenté pour des raisons commerciales.

Droits : 2006 Ifremer
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00077/18855/16429.pdf
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00077/18855/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : During the course of their life cycle organisms are exposed to natural environment variations capable of inducing physiological, morphological and behaviour changes, thus a phenotypic plasticity. Phenotypic plasticity is the ability of a genotype to generate a new phenotype following exogeneous or endogeneous stress. Here, we investigated the phenotypic plasticity of the non-calcifying symbiotic cnidarian Anemonia viridis at multiple levels of structural complexity, in vivo and in vitro. In vivo, we determined the mechanisms behind the phenotypic plasticity under expected future climate change (i.e. ocean acidification and ocean warming). Our results show physiological changes in the inorganic carbon use of the sea anemone A. viridis exposed to high pCO2 during a long-term stress in natura or a short-term stress in controlled conditions. We then observed an equivalent decrease in carbonic anhydrase activity, a key enzyme of cnidarian carbon concentrating mechanisms. Also, we demonstrated that an increase in seawater temperature modified the response observed during a high pCO2 scenario. In vitro, we established a viable primary cell culture from regenerating tentacles of A. viridis. We determined the gastrodermal tissue origin of the cultivated cells and validated the use of this new tool to the in vitro study of stress response at the cellular level. The set-up of this powerful in vitro tool will open a multitude of perspectives for the study of cellular responses to exogeneous stress (as global change perturbations) and to endogeneous stress (as the symbiosis constraints experienced by symbiotic cnidarians)
Durant leur cycle de vie, les organismes sont exposés à des variations environnementales capables d'induire des changements physiologiques, morphologiques et comportementaux, résultant d’une plasticité phénotypique. La plasticité phénotypique est la capacité d'un génotype à générer un nouveau phénotype suite à un stress. Ici, nous avons étudié la plasticité phénotypique d’un Cnidaire symbiotique et non-calcifiant, l’anémone de mer Anemonia viridis, à de multiples niveaux de complexité structurale, in vivo et in vitro. In vivo, nous avons identifié les mécanismes sous-jacents de la plasticité phénotypique potentiellement induits par les futurs changements climatiques (acidification et réchauffement des océans). Nos résultats montrent des modifications dans l'utilisation du carbone inorganique par A. viridis exposée à une forte pCO2 lors d’un stress chronique in natura ou lors d’un stress court en conditions contrôlées. Nous avons ainsi observé une diminution des activités anhydrase carbonique, une enzyme clé des mécanismes de concentration du carbone chez les Cnidaires. Nous avons aussi démontré que l'augmentation concomittante de la température modifie la réponse observée lors d'une élévation seule de la pCO2. In vitro, nous avons établi une culture de cellules primaires viables issue de tentacules d’A. viridis en régénération. Nous avons déterminé l'origine gastrodermale des cellules cultivées et validé l'utilisation de ce nouvel outil pour l'étude de la réponse au stress au niveau cellulaire. Ce nouvel outil ouvre une multitude de perspectives pour l'étude des réponses cellulaires aux stress exogènes (changement climatique) et endogènes (contraintes dues à la symbiose)
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01674220

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
NNT : 2016AZUR4136
tel-01674220
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01674220
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01674220/document
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01674220/file/2016AZUR4136.pdf