Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
In this work, we have led an analysis of the error of different global solar radiation prediction models according to the global solar radiation variability. Different predictions models where performed such as machine learning techniques (Neural Networks, Gaussian processes and support vector machines) in order to forecast the Global Horizontal solar Irradiance (GHI). We also include in this study a simple linear autoregressive (AR) model as well as two naive models based on persistence of the GHI and persistence of the clear sky index (denoted herein scaled persistence model). The models are calibrated and tested with data from three 3 French islands: Corsica (42.15°N ; 9.08°E), Guadeloupe (16.25°N ; 61.58°W) and Reunion (21.15°S ; 55.5°E). Guadeloupe and Reunion are located in a subtropical climatic zone whereas Corsica is in a tempered climatic zone. Hence the global solar radiation variation differs significantly. The output error of the different models was quantified by the nRSME. In order to quantify the influence of the global solar radiation variability on the forecasting models error we performed a classification of typical days according to different typical days. Each class of typical day is defined by a variation of global solar radiation rate. For each class and for each location, the selected forecasting models where performed and the error was quantified. With this analysis a global solar radiation forecasting models can be selected according to the location, the global solar radiation fluctuations and hence the meteorological conditions. INTRODUCTION Large and frequent variations of solar radiation can be observed in tropical climates with amplitudes reaching 800 W/m² and occurring within a short time interval, from few seconds to few minutes, according to the geographical location. Such fluctuations can be due for example to the dynamic of clouds which can be very complex and depend on cloud type, size, speed and spatial distribution and, more generally, due to some specific local meteorological conditions. Thus, the solar energy forecasting, a process used to predict the amount of solar energy available in the current and near terms, might be a difficult task. Some of the best predictors found in literature are Autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) [5,7,8], Bayesian inferences [9,10], Markov chains [11], k-Nearest-Neighbors predictors [12] or artificial intelligence techniques as the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) [9-11]. Although these methodologies are potentially good in many areas, we observed in our previous studies on global radiation prediction [9,13,14] that the simple model based on the persistence of the clear sky index gives often very good results with acceptable errors [15] for short term forecasting time horizon (<= 1 hour). The goal of this paper is to determinate the influence of solar radiation variability regarding different classes of days on the expected error provided by different forecasting methods that the modeller can possibly implement. The paper is organized as follow: Section 2 describes the data we have used. Section 3 exposes the classification methodology and the results obtained for the three studied locations. In the two following sections, the forecasting methods are exposed and then 3 the errors on the forecasting results for each location and for each class are exposed.
The Third Southern African Solar Energy Conference (SASEC2015)
Kruger National Park, South Africa

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
hal-01099487
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01099487
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01099487/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01099487/file/article%20SASEC.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : The allocation and cycling of carbon (C) within forests is an important component of the biospheric C cycle, but is particularly understudied within tropical forests. We synthesise reported and unpublished results from three lowland rainforest sites in Amazonia (in the regions of Manaus, Tapajos and Caxiuana), all major sites of the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Programme (LBA). We attempt a comprehensive synthesis of the C stocks, nutrient status and, particularly, the allocation and internal C dynamics of all three sites. The calculated net primary productivities (NPP) are 10.1 +/- 1.4 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) (Manaus), 14.4 +/- 1.3 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) (Tapajos) and 10.0 +/- 1.2 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) (Caxiuana). All errors bars report standard errors. Soil and leaf nutrient analyses indicate that Tapajos has significantly more plant-available phosphorus and calcium. Autotrophic respiration at all three sites (14.9-21.4 Mg C ha yr(-1)) is more challenging to measure, with the largest component and greatest source of uncertainty being leaf dark respiration. Comparison of measured soil respiration with that predicted from C cycling measurements provides an independent constraint. It shows general good agreement at all three sites, with perhaps some evidence for measured soil respiration being less than expected. Twenty to thirty percent of fixed C is allocated belowground. Comparison of gross primary productivity (GPP), derived from ecosystem flux measurements with that derived from component studies (NPP plus autotrophic respiration) provides an additional crosscheck. The two approaches are in good agreement, giving increased confidence in both approaches to estimating GPP. The ecosystem carbon-use efficiency (CUEs), the ratio of NPP to GPP, is similar at Manaus (0.34 +/- 0.10) and Caxiuana (0.32 +/- 0.07), but may be higher at Tapajos (0.49 +/- 0.16), although the difference is not significant. Old growth or infertile tropical forests may have low CUE compared with recently disturbed and/or fertile forests.
ISSN: 1354-1013

hal-01032150
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01032150
DOI : 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01780.x

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
The aim of this study is to assess the availability and quality of data from the International GNSS Service (IGS) Global Positioning System (GPS) network in Africa, especially for retrieving zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD), from which precipitable water vapour (PWV) can be derived, in view of application to the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) project. Three major error sources for the GPS data analysis evaluating PWV in Africa are the accuracy of the satellite orbits, the correction for the radio delay induced by the ionosphere and the vertical site displacements due to ocean loading. The first part of this study examines these error sources and the validity of GPS data for meteorological applications in Africa in dedicated analyses spanning the year 2001. These analyses were performed using the IGS precise orbits. Weak degradation of baseline precision with increasing baseline lengths suggests that the average orbital error is not limiting the GPS analysis in Africa. The impact of the ionosphere has been evaluated during a maximum of solar activity in 2001. The loss of L2 data has actually been observed. It amounts to 2% on average for 2001, with maxima of 8% during magnetic storm events. A slight decrease in formal accuracy of ZTD seems to be related to the loss of L2 data at the end of the day. This indicates that scintillation effects are present in the GPS observations but however are not a major limitation. The impact of ocean loading is found to be significant on ZTD estimates (up to ±2 mm in equivalent PWV). The use of a proper ocean loading model eliminates this effect. The second aspect of this study concerns the IGS analysis quality for the African stations. The accuracy has been assessed through position dispersion between individual solutions and the most recent version of the IGS combined solution IGb00, and residuals from the transformation of the IGS combined solution into the International Terrestrial Reference Frame 2005. The positioning performance of the IGS analysis is consistent with an accuracy in ZTD of ±6 mm (±1 mm in PWV), as requested for meteorological applications such as planned in AMMA.
ISSN: 1364-6826

insu-00347961
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00347961
DOI : 10.1016/j.jastp.2007.04.008

Éditeur(s) : Université des Antilles Études caribéennes
Résumé : L’application de modèles macro-économiques à l’analyse et la conception de politique économique ainsi qu’à la maitrise des déséquilibres macro-économiques est encore à un stade précoce dans les petits états insulaires en développement. La présente étude tente de combler cette lacune en proposant un modèle macro-économique applicable à chacun de ces territoires et destiné à l’analyse, la prévision et l’impact de chocs sur leurs économies. La Dominique, petit État insulaire en développement de la Caraïbe, a été choisie comme étude de cas pour un tel exercice. Ce modèle s’appuie sur les techniques analytiques de la cointégration et du modèle à correction d’erreur. Les équations du modèle sont spécifiées et leur performance prévisionnelle évaluée. Une fois élaboré et estimé, ce modèle est ensuite utilisé à des simulations de chocs issues de scénarios alternatifs afin de fournir des enseignements sur la trajectoire future des principales variables économiques de ce pays. L’un des principaux scénarios de l’étude consiste à déterminer le taux de croissance économique que la Dominique devrait cibler pour atteindre l’objectif de réduction de la pauvreté de moitié d’ici à 2015 et ce, conformément aux Objectifs du millénaire pour le développement (OMD), et de déterminer la politique budgétaire et monétaire compatible avec cet objectif. Enfin, l’intérêt d’une telle étude réside dans le fait qu’elle peut servir à réaliser les cadrages macro-économiques des stratégies de réduction de la pauvreté. Sa flexibilité peut en faire un instrument de décloisonnement administratif, favorisant ainsi la discussion avec toutes les parties prenantes de l’élaboration des politiques économiques.
The application of macroeconomic models to analyse and conceptualize the economic policy, as well as controlling macroeconomic imbalances, is still at an early stage in small islands developing states. This article tries to fill in this gap by proposing a macroeconomic model for analyzing, forecasting, and testing the effects of shocks to the economy, applicable for each of these territories. The case of Dominica, a small island developing state of Caribbean area, has been approched. This model draws on the analytical techniques of cointegration and error correction. The single equations are specified and their forecasting performance is assessed. Then, the model is constructed and shock simulations are performed and different scenarios are developed to give further insight in the future path of the main economic variables.One of the main scenarios of this study will determine in comparison of Millennium development goals (MDG), the economic growth rate of Dominica which would help to attain the objective of reduction poverty in half by 2015, as well as the fiscal and monetary policy compatible with this goal. Finally, it helps to make macroeconomic frameworks for strategy reduction of poverty. Its flexibility serves to aid the discussion with all parties.

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
urn:doi:10.4000/etudescaribeennes.6283
http://journals.openedition.org/etudescaribeennes/6283

Résumé : 1 - Study's goals review The management of Norway Lobster and Hake fisheries can be considered as the most important issue in the Gascogne gulf. Calculation methods used to evaluate prediction variations under various efforts and mesh constraints all pinpoint to the crucial role narrow mesh fishing plays in Hakes' Northern stock status. The involvement of Gascogne gulf Norway Lobster fisheries regarding Hakes over exploitation seems over dimensioned when comparing the size of both of these stocks. Hake stocks spread from Northern Great Britain to Northern Spain, while Norway Lobster stocks are located in the Gascogne gulf's mud flats. The biological solution is well known and consists in globally increasing mesh nets to 80mm which would bring up Hakes yield to its most. It would be unreal to pretend all parties involved in Hake stocks will come to use them. For now, it is mostly an economical issue since many vessels continue on with an exploitation scheme dating from the 60's and fish on coastal mud flats which are the most exploited zones and where their catch is detrimental to juvenile class Hakes and Norway Lobsters. Considering our limited time, this study will cover bio- economical modelisation preparation. You will therefore find a description of fisheries and an exploitation assessment based on 1986's available data. 2 - Accomplished work 2. 1 Fishery description Presenting the problems and preparing ulterior analyses was first and foremost. Norway Lobster vessels supposedly, according to evaluation models used, test immature Hakes in such a manner that all stock exploitation is jeopardized. Norway Lobster distribution is closely linked to the nature of the ocean floor since it can only build its habitat on fine sediment. Hakes' habitat is not as restrictive and is linked to food supply, especially euphausiid shrimps, so they can be found on sandy and sandy-sedimental floors. Norway Lobsters are sought by a fleet of 400 to 450 ships which characteristics widely vary according to their home port. On the northern part, fisheries are close to exploitation ports where Norway Lobsters and miscellaneous catch yield is sufficient to support an older fleet. On the southern part, the structure is diversified and flexibility usually rules, more modern vessels can easily switch their target on a seasonal or daily basis. Globally, Hakes' northern stocks are slightly on the rise. This rise is probably due to global mesh size increase, even if slight and a decrease on fishing effort where immature species are caught. Norway Lobster stocks unloading is stable or slightly lower and yields, as far as northern fishery are concerned, vary and oscillate between ±15 to ±20 % at about an average of 100 kg/day. Biological parameters used in the evaluations for each species are those used in CIEM and CEE work cells. Among those parameters, those describing growth are the greatest. For Hakes, an intermediary growth equation between males and females has been used. For Norway Lobsters, both sexes are treated separately. Simulations were carried out according to 3 types of data: Norway Lobster vessels fishing effort variations. Norway Lobster vessels mesh increase. Norway Lobster vessels fishing effort decrease or mesh increasing go along in the same direction for Hake and Norway Lobster stock production (chart A and B). Lastly, a brief study on results evaluation significance was done to modify: - the size of Hake rejects by Norway Lobster vessels. The range of sizes stays the same but the amount in each class varies according to the same percentage. - Norway Lobsters growth parameters, both values used (L» = 76 mm and k = 0.11 for males, L°° = 56 mm and k = 0.14 for females) representing the "high" hypothesis. In the first case, a 20% error rate for rejects evaluation with 60 mm mesh would only bring a 3% modification rate on global stock production. Those first results are contradicting usual evaluation conclusions and it will be necessary to recalculate by modifying the size class step. In the second case, to decrease L» and increase growth speed, in time production variations remain within usual inter annual fluctuations. In all figure cases, calculations confirming greater yield for in time production through hypothetical mesh size increase to 60 mm, are definitely well founded.
1 - Rappel des buts de l'étude La gestion des pêcheries de merlu et de langoustine peut être considérée comme le problème le plus important du Golfe de Gascogne. Les méthodes de calcul employées pour évaluer les variations de la production sous diverses contraintes d'effort et de maillage mettent toutes l'accent sur le rôle capital des pêcheries à petits maillages sur l'état du stock nord de merlu. Le niveau de responsabilité des pêcheries de langoustine du Golfe de Gascogne dans la surexploitation du merlu semble démesuré eu égard aux dimensions respectives des deux stocks. Le stock de merlu s'étend du Nord des Iles Britanniques au Nord de l'Espagne alors que le stock de langoustine est localisé aux vasièrés du Golfe de Gascogne. La solution biologique du problème est connue et tient à une augmentation généralisée des maillages à 80 mm qui amènerait le rendement du stock de merlu à son maximum. Il serait illusoire de prétendre que tous les acteurs opérant sur le stock de merlu arriveront jamais à l'utiliser. Pour le moment, le problème se pose essentiellement en termes économiques car beaucoup de navires poursuivent un schéma d'exploitation hérité des années 1960 et pèchent sur des vasièrés côtières qui sont les zones les plus exploitées et où ils effectuent leurs captures au détriment des jeunes classes d'âge de merlu et de langoustine. En raison des délais impartis, cette étude constitue la préparation à une modélisation bioéconomique. On y trouvera donc une description des pêcheries et un bilan de l'exploitation sur les données disponibles en 1986. 2 - Travaux effectués 2 . 1 Description de la pêcherie Il s'agissait avant tout de poser les problèmes et de préparer les analyses ultérieures. Les langoustiniers sont présumés, d'après les modèles d'évaluation employés, effectuer sur les immatures de merlu des prélèvements tels qu'ils mettent en danger toute l'exploitation du stock. La distribution de la langoustine est très liée à la nature du fond car elle ne peut construire son terrier que sur des fonds de vase fine. Celle du merlu est beaucoup plus large et inféodée à la recherche de nourriture, crevettes euphausiacées en particulier, on le trouve donc sur les fonds sableux à sablo-vaseux. La langoustine est recherchée par une flottille de 400 à 450 bateaux dont les caractéristiques sont très variables suivant leur appartenance géographique. Au nord, la pêcherie est proche des ports exploitants et les rendements en langoustine et en prise accessoire sont suffisants pour faire vivre une flottille ancienne. Vers le sud, la structure est très diversifiée et la flexibilité est généralement la règle et les navires de construction récente peuvent changer de cible aisément de façon saisonnière ou au cours de la même journée de pêche. Globalement, les débarquements de merlu du stock nord sont en légère hausse. Ce redressement est dû probablement aux augmentations de maillage, même légères, généralisées et à une baisse de l'effort sur les pêcheries où s'effectuent des captures d'immatures. Les débarquements de langoustine sont stables ou en légère baisse et les rendements, au moins sur la pêcherie du nord, varient avec des oscillations de ±15 à ±20 % autour d'une moyenne de 100 kg/jour. Les paramètres biologiques utilisés pour chaque espèce dans les évaluations sont ceux en usage dans les groupes de travail du CIEM et de la CEE. Parmi ces paramètres, ceux décrivant la croissance sont les plus importants. Pour le merlu une équation de croissance intermédiaire entre mâles et femelles a été utilisée. Pour la langoustine les deux sexes sont traitées séparément. Les simulations ont porté sur trois types de données : Variations de l'effort des langoustiniers Augmentation du maillage des langoustiniers La diminution de l'effort des langoustiniers ou L'augmentation de maillage agisse très exactement dans le même sens sur la production des stocks de merlu et de langoustine. Enfin une étude succincte de la sensibilité des résultats des évaluations a été effectuée pour des modifications : - de la composition en taille des rejets de merlu par les langoustiniers. L'étendue des tailles reste la même mais le nombre dans chaque classe varie selon le même pourcentage. des paramètres de croissance de la langoustine, le couple de valeurs utilisées (L» = 76 mm et k = 0.11 pour les mâles, L°° = 56 mm et k = 0.14 pour les femelles) constituant l'hypothèse "haute" Dans le premier cas, une erreur de 20 % sur l'évaluation des rejets pour un cnaillage de 60 mm n'apporterait qu'une modification de 3 % dans la production globale du stock. Ces premiers résultats sont en contradiction avec les conclusions habituelles des évaluations et il sera nécessaire de reprendre les calculs en modifiant le pas des classes de taille. Dans le deuxième cas, pour une diminution de L» et une augmentation de la vitesse de croissance, les variations de la production à terme restent à l'intérieur des fluctuations interannuelles habituelles. Dans tous les cas de figure, les calculs confirmant l'augmentation de la production à terme dans l'hypothèse d'une augmentation de maillage à 60 mm sont d'une robustesse à toute épreuve.

Droits : 1987 Ifremer
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/1987/rapport-1763.pdf
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/1763/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
In this paper we present a new local remeshing algorithm that is dedicated to the problem of erosion in finite element models whose grid follows the movement of the free surface. The method, which we name Surface Lagrangian Remeshing (SLR), is adapted to 2D Lagrangian models which couple surface erosion with deformation of Earth materials. The remeshing procedure preserves nodes defining the surface submitted to erosion and removes nodes belonging to surface elements whose internal angles or area is critically low. This algorithm is ideally suited to track long term surface evolution. To validate the method we perform a set of numerical tests, using triangular finite elements, which compare the results obtained with the SLR algorithm with global remeshing and with analytical results. The results show good agreements with analytical solutions. Interpolation errors associated with remeshing are generated locally and numerical diffusion is restricted to the remeshed domain itself. In addition this method is computationally costless compared to classical global remeshing algorithm. We propose to couple the SLR method with the Dynamical Lagrangian Remeshing (DLR) algorithm to enable local remeshing only of Lagrangian models coupling large deformation of Earth materials with large erosion.
ISSN: 0098-3004

hal-00639472
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00639472
DOI : 10.1016/j.cageo.2010.05.023

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD springer
Résumé : International audience
Although optimal control problems for linear systems have been profoundly investigated in the past 50-60 years, the issue of numerical approximations and precise error analyses remains challenging due the bang-bang structure of the optimal controls. Based on a recent paper by M. Quincampoix and V.M. Veliov on metric regularity of the optimality conditions for control problems of linear systems the paper presents new error estimates for the Euler discretization scheme applied to such problems. It turns out that the accuracy of the Euler method depends on the "controllability index" associated with the optimal solution, and a sharp error estimate is given in terms of this index. The result extends and strengthens in several directions some recently published ones.
Lecture notes in computer science
Sozopol, Bulgaria

hal-00998121
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00998121

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD BioMed Central
Résumé : International audience
ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Climate change poses unprecedented challenges, ranging from global and local policy challenges to personal and social action. Heat-related deaths are largely preventable, but interventions for the most vulnerable populations need improvement. Therefore, the prior identification of high risk areas at the community level is required to better inform planning and prevention. We aimed to demonstrate a simple and flexible conceptual framework relying upon satellite thermal data and other digital data with the goal of easily reproducing this framework in a variety of urban configurations. RESULTS: The study area encompasses Rennes, a medium-sized French city. A Landsat ETM + image (60 m resolution) acquired during a localized heatwave (June 2001) was used to estimate land surface temperature (LST) and derive a hazard index. A land-use regression model was performed to predict the LST. Vulnerability was assessed through census data describing four dimensions (socio-economic status, extreme age, population density and building obsolescence). Then, hazard and vulnerability indices were combined to deliver a heatwave health risk index. The LST patterns were quite heterogeneous, reflecting the land cover mosaic inside the city boundary, with hotspots of elevated temperature mainly observed in the city center. A spatial error regression model was highly predictive of the spatial variation in the LST (R2 = 0.87) and was parsimonious. Three land cover descriptors (NDVI, vegetation and water fractions) were negatively linked with the LST. A sensitivity analysis (based on an image acquired on July 2000) yielded similar results. Southern areas exhibited the most vulnerability, although some pockets of higher vulnerability were observed northeast and west of the city. The heatwave health risk map showed evidence of infra-city spatial clustering, with the highest risks observed in a north--south central band. Another sensitivity analysis gave a very high correlation between 2000 and 2001 risk indices (r = 0.98, p < 10-12). CONCLUSIONS: Building on previous work, we developed a reproducible method that can provide guidance for local planners in developing more efficient climate impact adaptations. We recommend, however, using the health risk index together with hazard and vulnerability indices to implement tailored programs because exposure to heat and vulnerability do not require the same prevention strategies.
ISSN: 1476-072X

inserm-00762303
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00762303
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00762303/document
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00762303/file/1476-072X-11-38.pdf
DOI : 10.1186/1476-072X-11-38

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
In this paper, we describe a blood alcohol content estimation prototype based on a comportment analysis performed by artificial neural networks. We asked to subjects that had drunk alcohol to play a video-game after having measured their blood alcohol content with a breathalyser. A racing game was modified so that it could provide various data related to the use of the controls by the player. Using the collected data, we trained our neural network in order to be able to determine whether or not the subject had exceeded a blood alcohol content threshold. We also succeeded in estimating this blood alcohol content with a mean error of 0.1g/l. We could perform those estimations independently of the track played among the two ones used. It was also performed in "real time", e.g., using only the data collected within the last 10 seconds of playing.
Proceedings of the 2011 International Conference on Advances in Computer-Human Interactions
Gosier, Guadeloupe

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
hal-00849971
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00849971
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00849971/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00849971/file/article.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Oxford University Press (OUP)
Résumé : International audience
Motivation: Gene fusion is an important evolutionary process. It can yield valuable information to infer the interactions and functions of proteins. Fused genes have been identified as non-transitive patterns of similarity in triplets of genes. To be computationally tractable, this approach usually imposes an a priori distinction between a dataset in which fused genes are searched for, and a dataset that may have provided genetic material for fusion. This reduces the `genetic space' in which fusion can be discovered, as only a subset of triplets of genes is investigated. Moreover, this approach may have a high-false-positive rate, and it does not identify gene families descending from a common fusion event. Results: We represent similarities between sequences as a network. This leads to an efficient formulation of previous methods of fused gene identification, which we implemented in the Python program FusedTriplets. Furthermore, we propose a new characterization of families of fused genes, as clique minimal separators of the sequence similarity network. This well-studied graph topology provides a robust and fast method of detection, well suited for automatic analyses of big datasets. We implemented this method in the C++ program MosaicFinder, which additionally uses local alignments to discard false-positive candidates and indicates potential fusion points. The grouping into families will help distinguish sequencing or prediction errors from real biological fusions, and it will yield additional insight into the function and history of fused genes.
ISSN: 1367-4803

hal-01544795
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01544795
DOI : 10.1093/bioinformatics/btt049

Éditeur(s) : Elsevier Science Bv
Résumé : Recent advances in technologies have lead to a vast influx of data on movements, based on discrete recorded position of animals or fishing boats, opening new horizons for future analyses. However, most of the potential interest of tracking data depends on the ability to develop suitable modelling strategies to analyze trajectories from discrete recorded positions. A serious modelling challenge is to infer the evolution of the true position and the associated spatio-temporal distribution of behavioural states using discrete, error-prone and incomplete observations. In this paper, a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (HBM) using Hidden Markov Process (HMP) is proposed as a template for analyzing fishing boats trajectories based on data available from satellite-based vessel monitoring systems (VMS). The analysis seeks to enhance the definition of the fishing pressure exerted on fish stocks, by discriminating between the different behavioural states of a fishing trip, and also by quantifying the relative importance of each of these states during a fishing trip. The HBM approach is tested to analyse the behaviour of pelagic trawlers in the Bay of Biscay. A hidden Markov chain with a regular discrete time step is used to model transitions between successive behavioural states (e.g., fishing, steaming, stopping (at Port or at sea)) of each vessel. The parameters of the movement process (speed and turning angles) are defined conditionally upon the behavioural states. Bayesian methods are used to integrate the available data (typically VMS position recorded at discrete time) and to draw inferences on any unknown parameters of the model. The model is first tested on simulated data with different parameters structures. Results provide insights on the potential of HBM with HMP to analyze VMS data. They show that if VMS positions are recorded synchronously with the instants at which the process switch from one behavioural state to another, the estimation method provides unbiased and precise inferences on behavioural states and on associated movement parameters. However, if the observations are not gathered with a sufficiently high frequency, the performance of the estimation method could be drastically impacted when the discrete observations are not synchronous with the switching instants. The model is then applied to real pathways to estimate variables of interest such as the number of operations per trip, time and distance spent fishing or travelling. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Ecological Modelling (0304-3800) (Elsevier Science Bv), 2010-07 , Vol. 221 , N. 15 , P. 1757-1769

Droits : 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00009/11993/9342.pdf
DOI:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.04.005
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00009/11993/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD MDPI
Résumé : International audience
Satellite precipitation products are a means of estimating rainfall, particularly in areas that are sparsely equipped with rain gauges. The Guiana Shield is a region vulnerable to high water episodes. Flood risk is enhanced by the concentration of population living along the main rivers. A good understanding of the regional hydro-climatic regime, as well as an accurate estimation of precipitation is therefore of great importance. Unfortunately, there are very few rain gauges available in the region. The objective of the study is then to compare satellite rainfall estimation products in order to complement the information available in situ and to perform a regional analysis of four operational precipitation estimates, by partitioning the whole area under study into a homogeneous hydro-climatic region. In this study, four satellite products have been tested, TRMM TMPA (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis) V7 (Version 7) and RT (real time), CMORPH (Climate Prediction Center (CPC) MORPHing technique) and PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely-Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Network), for daily rain gauge data. Product performance is evaluated at daily and monthly scales based on various intensities and hydro-climatic regimes from 1 January 2001 to 30 December 2012 and using quantitative statistical criteria (coefficient correlation, bias, relative bias and root mean square error) and quantitative error metrics (probability of detection for rainy days and for no-rain days and the false alarm ratio). Over the entire study period, all products underestimate precipitation. The results obtained in terms of the hydro-climate show that for areas with intense convective precipitation, TMPA V7 shows a better performance than other products, especially in the estimation of extreme precipitation events. In regions along the Amazon, the use of PERSIANN is better. Finally, in the driest areas, TMPA V7 and PERSIANN show the same performance.
ISSN: 2072-4292

Droits : http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/licences/copyright/
hal-01257912
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01257912
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01257912/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01257912/file/remotesensing-07-15831.pdf
DOI : 10.3390/rs71215831

Éditeur(s) : IEEE
Résumé : Two approaches of ocean color data merging were tested and compared in the North and Equatorial Atlantic Basin: the weighted averaging and the objective analysis. The datasets used were the daily level-3 binned data of chlorophyll-a from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer on the Aqua satellite over the year 2003, which is the first common full year of operation. Since they represent input for both approaches, matchups between the satellite and the in situ data from the SeaWiFS Bio-optical Archive and Storage System and the Atlantic Meridional Transect were first studied to compute a spatial map of the root mean-square error and of the bias. Because of the log distribution of the chlorophyll fields, each approach was applied to untransformed and log-transformed values. The application of the weighted averaging to log-transformed values does not show significant differences in comparison to its application to untransformed values. This is not the case, however, for the objective analysis that gives better results when applied to logtransformed values. Both approaches give combined chlorophyll data of equivalent quality, although the objective analysis could be improved with a better statistical characterization of noise and signal covariance. The main advantage of the objective analysis is its ability to interpolate in space (and time) by taking into account the characteristic scales of chlorophyll-a. As a result, the spatial coverage of the combined data is at least twice as large in the case of objective analysis than weighted averaging. OCR NOT CONTROLLED
IEEE (0196-2892) (IEEE), 2006-11 , Vol. 44 , N. 11 , P. 3436-3451

Droits : 2006 IEEE
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2006/publication-3631.pdf
DOI:10.1109/TGRS.2006.878441
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/3631/

Éditeur(s) : Amer Geophysical Union
Résumé : This study focuses on the improved estimation of mesoscale surface ocean circulation obtained by merging TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) and ERS-1 and -2 altimeter measurements between October 1992 and May 1998. Once carefully intercalibrated and homogenized, these data are merged through an advanced global objective analysis method that allows us to correct for residual long wavelength errors and uses realistic correlation scales of ocean dynamics, The high-resolution (0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees) merged T/P + ERS-1 and -2 sea level anomaly maps provide more homogeneous and reduced mapping errors than either individual data set and more realistic sea level and geostrophic velocity statistics than T/P data alone. Furthermore, the merged T/P + ERS-1 and -2 maps yield eddy kinetic energy (EKE) levels 30% higher than maps of T/P alone. They also permit realistic global estimates of east and north components of EKE and their seasonal variations, to study EKE sources better. A comparison of velocity statistics with World Ocean Circulation Experiment surface drifters in the North Atlantic shows very good agreement. Comparison with contemporary current meter data in various oceanic regimes also produces comparable levels of energy and similar ratios of northward and eastward energy, showing that the maps are suitable to studying anisotropy. The T/P + ERS zonal and meridional components of the mapped currents usually present comparable rms variability, even though the variability in the Atlantic is more isotropic than that in the Pacific, which exhibits strong zonal changes. The EKE map presents a very detailed description, presumably never before achieved at a global scale. Pronounced seasonal changes of the EKE are found in many regions, notably the northeastern Pacific, the northeastern and northwestern Atlantic, the tropical oceans, and the zonally extended bands centered near 20 degrees S in the Indian and western Pacific Oceans and at 20 degrees N in the northwestern nl Pacific.
Journal Of Geophysical Research-oceans (0148-0227) (Amer Geophysical Union), 2000-08 , Vol. 105 , N. C8 , P. 19477-19498

Droits : 2000 AGU
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00079/19033/16617.pdf
DOI:10.1029/2000JC900063
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00079/19033/

Éditeur(s) : Amer Geophysical Union
Résumé : Sea surface salinity (SSS) measured from space by the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission is validated in the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. 39 transects of ships of opportunity equipped with thermosalinographs (TSG) crossed that region from 2010 to 2012, providing a large database of ground truth SSS. SMOS SSS is also compared to Aquarius SSS. Large seasonal biases remain in SMOS and Aquarius SSS. In order to look at the capability of satellite SSS to monitor spatial variability, especially at scales less than 300 km (not monitored with the Argo network), we first apply a monthly bias correction derived from satellite SSS and In Situ Analysis System (ISAS) SSS differences averaged over the studied region. Ship SSS averaged over 25 km is compared with satellite and ISAS SSS. Similar statistics are obtained for SMOS, Aquarius and ISAS products (root mean square error of about 0.15 and global correlation coefficient r of about 0.92). However, in the above statistics, SSS varies due to both large scale and mesoscale (here, for scales around 100 km) variability. In order to focus on mesoscale variability, we consider SSS anomalies with respect to a monthly climatology. SMOS SSS and Aquarius SSS anomalies are more significantly correlated (r > 0.5) to TSG SSS anomaly than ISAS. We show the effective gain of resolution and coverage provided by the satellite products over the interpolated in situ data. We also show the advantage of SMOS (r=0.57) over Aquarius (r=0.52) to reproduce SSS mesoscale features.
Journal Of Geophysical Research-oceans (0148-0027) (Amer Geophysical Union), 2014-12 , Vol. 119 , N. 12 , P. 8878-8896

Droits : 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00210/32150/34082.pdf
DOI:10.1002/2013JC009610
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00210/32150/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : International audience
The Convective and Orographically-driven Precipitation Study (COPS) carried out in summer 2007 over northeastern France and southwestern Germany provided a fairly comprehensive description of the low-troposphere water-vapour field, thanks in particular to the deployment of two airborne differential absorption lidar systems. These lidar observations were assimilated using the 3D-Var assimilation system of the Application of Research to Operations at MEsoscale (AROME) numerical weather prediction mesoscale model. The assimilation was carried out for the period 4 July-3 August by running a three-hour forward intermittent assimilation cycle. First, the impact of the lidar observations was assessed by comparing the analyses with a set of more than 200 independent soundings. The lidar observations were found to have a positive impact on the analyses by reducing the dry bias in the first 500 m above ground level and by diminishing the root-mean-square error by roughly 15% in the first km. Then the impact of the lidar observations was assessed by comparing the precipitation forecasts (obtained with and without the lidar observations for the period 15 July-2 August) with the gridded precipitation observations provided by the Vienna Enhanced Resolution Analysis. In general, the impact was found to be positive but not significant for the 24 h precipitation and positive and significant for the 6 h precipitation, with an improvement lasting up to 24 h. Some selected case studies show that the improvement was obtained through a better depiction of convection initiation or through a more accurate positioning of the precipitation systems
ISSN: 0035-9009

hal-00659497
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00659497
DOI : 10.1002/qj.1864

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : Handheld energy dispersive portable X-ray spectrometers (pXRF) are generally designed and used for qualitative survey applications. We developed shipboard quantitative analysis protocols for pXRF and employed the instrument to make over 2000 individual abundance measurements for a selection of major and trace elements on over 1200 m of recovered core during the eight weeks of the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 352 to the Izu-Bonin forearc. pXRF analytical performance, accuracy and precision were found to be the same on powdered rock samples and on freshly cut rock surfaces, and sample results were similar within error to measurements made via shipboard ICP-OES analysis save at low abundance levels for a few elements. Instrument performance was optimal for elements between Z = 19 and Z = 40, and the system yielded reproducible data for K, Ca, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Cu, Zn, Rb, Sr, and Zr on both powdered samples and rock surfaces. Working curves developed via pXRF measurement of a suite of geologic standard reference materials and well-characterized lavas permitted accurate quantitative measurements for many of the examined elements on both sample powders and rock surfaces. Although pXRF has been sporadically employed on previous cruises, Expedition 352 is the first time a detailed, high-density chemostratigraphy of recovered core samples was collected using pXRF measurements of rock core surfaces. These high-resolution data allowed the recognition of chemically distinct eruptive units in near real-time. The rapid identification of geochemical trends vastly improved our selection of samples for shipboard and shore-based analysis, permitted a more comprehensive interpretation of our Expedition results, and provided key decision-making information for drilling operations.
ISSN: 0009-2541

hal-01553188
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01553188
DOI : 10.1016/j.chemgeo.2017.01.007

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
Résumé : International audience
Leishmaniasis is endemic in southern Europe, and in other European countries cases are diagnosed in travellers who have visited affected areas both within the continent and beyond. Prompt and accurate diagnosis poses a challenge in clinical practice in Europe. Different methods exist for identification of the infecting Leishmania species. Sixteen clinical laboratories in 10 European countries, plus Israel and Turkey, conducted a study to assess their genotyping performance. DNA from 21 promastigote cultures of 13 species was analysed blindly by the routinely used typing method. Five different molecular targets were used, which were analysed with PCR-based methods. Different levels of identification were achieved, and either the Leishmania subgenus, species complex, or actual species were reported. The overall error rate of strains placed in the wrong complex or species was 8.5%. Various reasons for incorrect typing were identified. The study shows there is considerable room for improvement and standardisation of Leishmania typing. The use of well validated standard operating procedures is recommended, covering testing, interpretation, and reporting guidelines. Application of the internal transcribed spacer 1 of the rDNA array should be restricted to Old World samples, while the heat-shock protein 70 gene and the mini-exon can be applied globally.
ISSN: 1560-7917

hal-01460743
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01460743
DOI : 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.49.30418
PUBMED : 27983510

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
The oxygen fugacity and therefore the iron redox state of a melt is known to have a strong influence on the liquid line of descent of magmas and thus on the composition of the coexisting melts and crystals. We present a new method to estimate this critical parameter from electron probe microanalyses of two of the most common minerals of basaltic series, plagioclase and clinopyroxene. This method is not based on stoichiometric calculations, but on the different partitioning behaviour of Fe3+ and Fe2+ between both minerals and a melt phase: plagioclase can incorporate more Fe3+ than Fe2+, while clinopyroxene can incorporate more Fe2+ than Fe3+. For example, the effect of oxidizing a partly molten basaltic system (Fe3+ is stabilized with respect to Fe2+) results in an increase of FeOtotal in plagioclase, but a decrease in the associated clinopyroxene. We propose an equation, based on published partition coefficients, that allows estimating the redox state of a melt from these considerations. An application to a set of experimental and natural data attests the validity of the proposed model. The associated error can be calculated and is on average <1 log unit of the prevailing oxygen fugacity.;In order to reduce the number of different variables influencing the Fe2+/Fe3+ mineral/melt equilibrium, our model is restricted to basaltic series with SiO2<60% that have crystallized at intermediate to low pressure (<0.5 GPa) and under relatively oxidizing conditions (Delta FMQ>0; where FMQ is the fayalite-magnetite-quartz oxygen buffer equilibrium), but it may be parameterized for other conditions. A spreadsheet is provided to assist the use of equations, and to perform the error propagation analysis.
ISSN: 0377-0273

hal-00475550
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00475550
DOI : 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2009.11.023

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : poster
International audience
Locations for earthquake recorded in the Lesser Antilles subduction zone are processed separately by regional observatories, NEIC and ISC. There is no earthquake location catalog available compiling all available phase arrival data. We propose a new best complete earthquake catalog by merging all available phase arrival data for better constrains on earthquake locations. ISC provides the phase arrival data of 29243 earthquakes (magnitude range from 1.4 to 6.4) recorded by PRSN (Porto Rico), SRC (British West Indies), and from FUNVISIS (Venezuela). We add phases data from IPGP observatories for 68718 earthquakes from magnitudes 0.1 to 7.5 (OVSG, Guadeloupe, recorded 53226 earthquakes since 1981, and OVSM, Martinique, recorded 29931 earthquakes since 1972). IPGP also provides the accelerometer waveform data of the GIS-RAP network. We achieved automatic picking on the GIS-RAP data using the Component Energy Correlation Method. The CECM provides high precision phase detection, a realistic estimation of picking error and realistic weights that can be used with manual pick weights. The CECM add an average of 3 P-waves and 2 S-waves arrivals to 3846 earthquakes recorded by the GIS-RAP network since 2002. The final catalog contains 84979 earthquakes between 1972 and 2013, 24528 of which we compiled additional data. We achieve earthquake location using NonLinLoc, regional P and S waves data and a set of one dimensional velocity models. We produce improved locations for 22974 earthquakes (better residuals, on equal or larger arrival dataset) and improved duration magnitudes for 6258 earthquakes (using duration data and improved locations). A subset of best constrained 15626 hypocenters (with more than 8 phases and an average RMS of 0.48_0.77s) could be used for structural analysis and earthquake local tomography. Relative locations are to be applied in order to image active faulting. We aim to understand coupling in the seismogenic zone as well as triggering mechanisms of intermediate depth seismicity like fluid migration beneath the volcanic arc.
Geophysical Research Abstracts
Vienne, Austria

hal-01059207
https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01059207