Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD IRD
Résumé : International audience
Malaria remains a major health problem in French Guiana despite the decrease in the number of cases since 2010. A previous study in Camopi, an Amerindian village on the Oyapock River, revealed that Plasmodium falciparum malaria incidence was significantly related to landscape features and that its spatial distribution exhibited some obvious patterns. In the present study, we first identified the spatial patterns that exhibit a significant Moran's index of spatial auto-correlation and that significantly explain P. falciparum malaria incidence within the multiple linear regression framework. Secondly, we linked these patterns with remotely sensed environmental features. The selected model is composed of five spatial components: three patterns, representing 50.7% of the total variance, are associated with large scale variations of the incidence, and the remaining patterns are associated with local scale variations and represent 28.7% of the total variance. Different hamlet clusters that have specificities in terms of P. falciparum malaria incidence rate, environmental characteristics and mosquito control strategies have been identified. The methodology proposed in the present study can provide useful knowledge on the spatial distribution of the P. falciparum malaria incidence in Camopi at different scales and on possible explanation of such distribution, as a function of the scale.
Symposium of the Latin American Society for Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Systems (SELPER)
Cayenne, French Guiana

ird-00797353
http://hal.ird.fr/ird-00797353
http://hal.ird.fr/ird-00797353/document
http://hal.ird.fr/ird-00797353/file/Roux_et_al_SELPER_2012.pdf
IRD : fdi:010058342

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Oxford University Press (OUP)
Résumé : International audience
A temporary network of 10 broad-band seismic stations has been installed in French Polynesia for the Polynesian Lithosphere and Upper Mantle Experiment (PLUME). All the seismic stations were installed either on volcanic islands or on atolls of the various archipelagos of French Polynesia in a manner which complements the geographic coverage provided by the regional permanent stations. The primary aim of PLUME is to image the upper mantle structures related to plate motion and hotspot activity. However, because of its proximity to all sites, the ocean is responsible for a high level of noise in the seismic data and we show that these data can also be used to analyse ocean wave activity. The power spectral density (PSD) analyses of the seismic data recorded in French Polynesia show clear peaks in the 0.05– 0.10 Hz band (periods between 10 and 20 s), which corresponds to swell frequencies. Clear peaks in this frequency band are also observed in infrasonic data recorded on Tahiti. Ground motion analysis shows that the swell-related seismic noise (SRSN) is linearly polarized in the horizontal plane and its amplitude decreases rapidly with the distance from the shore. The microseismic and the infrasonic 'noise' amplitudes show very similar variations from station to station and both are strongly correlated with the swell amplitudes predicted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), wind-forced, 'WaveWatch' models. The swell direction can be estimated from SRSN polarization analysis but this has to be done with care since, for some cases, the ground motions are strongly controlled by the islands' anisometric shapes and by swell refraction processes. We find cases, however, such as Tahiti or roughly circular Tuamotu atolls, where the azimuth of the swell is in good agreement with the seismic estimates. We, therefore, demonstrate that the SRSN and the infrasonic signal observed in French Polynesia can be used in such cases as a proxy for swell amplitude and azimuth. From the continuous analysis of the data recorded in 2003 at the permanent seismic station PPTL in Tahiti, transfer functions have been obtained. This could provide a way to quantify the swell activity during the last two decades and, therefore, assist in the investigation of climate changes.
ISSN: 0956-540X

hal-01323691
http://hal.univ-reunion.fr/hal-01323691
http://hal.univ-reunion.fr/hal-01323691/document
http://hal.univ-reunion.fr/hal-01323691/file/Barruol_et_al_2006.pdf
DOI : 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2006.02871.x

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : International audience
BACKGROUND: Although adverse birth outcomes have been associated with neighbourhood deprivation in urban areas, few studies have addressed this issue in rural zones. This study examines whether associations between neighbourhood deprivation and adverse birth outcomes differ in urban and rural contexts, while taking individual characteristics and spatial accessibility of prenatal care (SAPC) into account. METHODS: Pregnant women from a French mother-child cohort were recruited from 2002 to 2006 in Brittany. Their residential addresses were geocoded into their census blocks (the finest geographical resolution available). Deprivation was assessed at the same neighbourhood level. Models to assess the associations of deprivation, stratified by urban/rural status, with preterm delivery (PTD), with small for gestational age birth weight (SGA) and with small for gestational age head circumference at birth (SHC), estimated odds ratios (ORs), adjusted for maternal socioeconomic characteristics and SAPC. RESULTS: This study considered 2929 liveborn singleton pregnancies from 780 census blocks. Neighbourhood deprivation was associated with increased risks of SGA and SHC (P trend  extless 0.01 and 0.03 respectively), only among mothers residing in rural areas. Neighbourhood deprivation had statistically significantly heterogeneous effects on SGA and SHC according to the urban/rural status of maternal residence. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that neighbourhood deprivation affects fetal growth differentially in urban and rural areas and that SAPC does not seem to be responsible for this difference. Comparison of these findings with the literature requires caution in the conceptualisation of urban and rural settings
ISSN: 0269-5022

hal-01187424
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01187424
DOI : 10.1111/ppe.12208
PUBMED : 26186278

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
The Corinth Rift is the most seismically active zone in Europe. The area is characterized by very localized NSextension at a rate of1.5cm/year, the occurrence of frequent and intensive microseismic crises and occasionalmoderate to large earthquakes like in 1995 (Mw=6.1).Since the year 2000, the Corinth Rift Laboratory (CRL, http://crlab.eu) consisting in a multidisciplinary naturalobservatory, aims at understanding the mechanics of faulting and earthquake nucleation in the Rift. Recent studieshave improved our view about fault geometry and mechanics within CRL, but there is still a critical need for a betterknowledge of the structure at depth both for the accuracy of earthquake locations and for mechanical interpretationof the seismicity.In this project, we aim to analyze the complete seismological database (13 years of recordings) of CRL by usingrecently developed methodologies of structural imaging, in order to determine at the same time and with highresolution, the local 3D structure and the earthquake locations.We perform an iterative joint determination of 3D velocity model and earthquake coordinates. In a first step, Pand S velocity models are determined using first arrival time tomography method proposed by Taillandier et al.(2009). It consists in the minimization of the cost function between observed and theoretical arrival times which isachieved by the steepest descent method (e.g. Tarantola 1987). This latter requires computing the gradient of thecost function by using the adjoint state method (Chavent 1974). In a second step, earthquakes are located in thenew velocity model with a non-linear inversion method based on a Bayesian formulation (Gesret et al. 2015). Step1 and 2 are repeated until the cost function no longer decreases.We present preliminary results consisting in: (1) the adjustement of a 1D velocity model that is used as initialmodel of the 3D tomography and (2) a first attempt of the joint determination of 3D velocity model and earthquakelocation.In addition to the tomographic imaging, we perform a preliminary receiver function analysis of teleseismic datarecorded by the broadband stations of the CRL network. The RF analysis should provide the interface depthsbeneath seismometers and increase the imaging resolution of the upper crustal structures provided by the 3Dtomography. In this first attempt, we adjust the 1D velocity model that produces a synthetic RF as similar aspossible to the observed RF for a subset of data. We compare the identified interfaces with structures imaged bythe tomography.
EGU general assembly 2016
Vienne, Austria

hal-01306224
https://hal-mines-paristech.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01306224

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Taylor & Francis (Routledge)
Résumé : International audience
Several studies have focused on the role of students’ conceptions of intellectual ability, the learning process and the self-efficacy. However, these three parameters have not been integrated and analysed within the same model. Against this background, the objective of our research is to identify the links that develop between these three constructs. To this end, we have put forward two hypotheses: 1. The conception that intelligence is constructed directly and positively affects the conception that learning is a constructive process. This has a positive impact on perceived self-efficacy. 2. The conception that intelligence is a fixed trait directly and positively affects the conception that learning is a reproductive process and leads to lower perceptions of self-efficacy. To test these hypotheses, we conducted research using a questionnaire distributed among 1112 students in their last year of primary school. The questionnaires were subject to statistical analysis using structural equation modelling. The results confirm our hypotheses and thus show the relevance of our model.
ISSN: 0305-5698

hal-01532797
https://hal.univ-antilles.fr/hal-01532797
DOI : 10.1080/03055698.2016.1152172

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union
Résumé : International audience
We present the results of a paleomagnetic study of seven new volcanic sections (146 flows) from Kerguelen Archipelago. For two of these sections, preliminary (;40;Ar/;39;Ar) ages are reported to aid in the calibration of the paleomagnetic results. The primary contribution of this report, however, is a compilation of these new data with those already published in order to describe statistically the characteristics of the paleomagnetic field as recorded by the Kerguelen flood basalts. In total, 258 paleomagnetic directions sampled at 13 stratigraphic sections through the lava pile are available and span an approximately 5 Ma window: from 25 to 30 Ma. The composite section represents at least 11 polarity zones that are correlated to the reference geomagnetic polarity timescale. Our approach is to investigate the average normal and reversed polarity field directions over this 5 Ma window. We calculated a paleomagnetic pole found to be located at ;λ; = 85.5°N, = 189.3°E (A;95; = 2.3°, K = 16.5, N = 233). This pole is in close agreement with the coeval paleomagnetic poles obtained from different worldwide places when analyzed in the Indo-Atlantic hot spot reference frame. In the statistical analysis we tackle the specific question: Is the secular variation isotropic? This question is directly related to the occurrence of a longitudinal confinement of the virtual geomagnetic poles, which is still a matter of debate among paleomagnetists. By means of statistical tests we show that the paleomagnetic data from Kerguelen agree with an isotropic model for paleosecular variation. Finally, we present adjustments to Camps and Prévot's (1996) statistical model, developed for some Northern Hemisphere latitudes, to the Southern Hemisphere paleomagnetic data from Kerguelen.
ISSN: 0148-0227

hal-00407636
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00407636
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00407636/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00407636/file/pcamps-JGR2007.pdf
DOI : 10.1029/2006JB004648

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD AGU and the Geochemical Society
Résumé : International audience
Although magmatism may occur during the earliest stages of continental rifting, its role in strain accommodation remains weakly constrained by largely 2-D studies. We analyze seismicity data from a 13 month, 39-station broadband seismic array to determine the role of magma intrusion on state-of-stress and strain localization, and their along-strike variations. Precise earthquake locations using cluster analyses and a new 3-D velocity model reveal lower crustal earthquakes beneath the central basins and along projections of steep border faults that degas CO2. Seismicity forms several disks interpreted as sills at 6-10 km below a monogenetic cone field. The sills overlie a lower crustal magma chamber that may feed eruptions at Oldoinyo Lengai volcano. After determining a new ML scaling relation, we determine a b-value of 0.87±0.03. Focal mechanisms for 65 earthquakes, and 13 from a catalogue prior to our array reveal an along-axis stress rotation of ∼60° in the magmatically active zone. New and prior mechanisms show predominantly normal slip along steep nodal planes, with extension directions ∼N90°E north and south of an active volcanic chain consistent with geodetic data, and ∼N150°E in the volcanic chain. The stress rotation facilitates strain transfer from border fault systems, the locus of early-stage deformation, to the zone of magma intrusion in the central rift. Our seismic, structural, and geochemistry results indicate that frequent lower crustal earthquakes are promoted by elevated pore pressures from volatile degassing along border faults, and hydraulic fracture around the margins of magma bodies. Results indicate that earthquakes are largely driven by stress state around inflating magma bodies.
ISSN: 1525-2027

hal-01667198
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01667198
DOI : 10.1002/2017GC007027

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
We investigate the contribution of atmospheric and its induced non-tidal oceanic loading effects on surface time-varying gravity and tilt measurements for several stations in Western Europe. The ocean response to pressure forcing can be modelled accordingly to the inverted barometer, i.e. assuming that air pressure variations are fully compensated by static sea height changes, or using ocean general circulation models.Wevalidate two runs of theHUGO-mbarotropic ocean model by comparing predicted sea surface height variations with hundred tide-gauge measurements along the European coasts. We then show that global surface pressure field, as well as a barotropic high-resolution ocean model forced by air pressure and winds allow in most cases a significant reduction of the variance of gravity residuals and, to a smaller extends tilt residuals. Wefinally show that precise gravity measurements with superconducting gravimeters allow the observation of large storm surges, occurring in the North Sea, even for inland stations. However, we also confirm that the continental hydrology contribution cannot be neglected. Thanks to their specific sensitivity feature, only tiltmeters closest to the coast can clearly detect the loading due to these storm surges.
ISSN: 0264-3707

hal-00708046
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00708046
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00708046/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00708046/file/ETS2008_BOY.pdf
BIBCODE : 2009JGeo...48..182B

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Springer Verlag
Résumé : International audience
Seasonal climate forecasts mainly rely on the atmospheric sensitivity to its lower boundary conditions and on their own predictability. Besides sea surface temperature (SST), soil moisture (SM) may be an additional source of climate predictability particularly during boreal summer in the mid-latitudes. In this work, we investigate the role of SM initial conditions on near-surface climate predictability during ten boreal summer seasons using three complementary ensembles of AMIP-type simulations performed with the Arpège-Climat atmospheric general circulation model. First we have conducted an assessment of the SM predictability itself through a comparison of simple empirical SM models with Arpège-Climat. The statistical and dynamical models reveal similar SM prediction skill patterns but the Arpège-Climat reaches higher scores suggesting that it is at least suitable to explore the influence of SM initialization on atmospheric predictability. Then we evaluate the relationships between SM predictability and some near surface atmospheric predictability. While SM initialization obviously improves the predictability of land surface evaporation, it has no systematic influence on the precipitation and near surface temperature skills. Nevertheless, the summer hindcast skill is clearly improved during specific years and over certain regions (mainly north America and eastern Europe in the Arpège-Climat model), when and where the SM forcing is sufficiently widespread and strong. In this case, a significant impact is also found on the occurrence of heat waves and heavy rains, whose predictability at the seasonal timescale is a crucial challenge for years to come.
ISSN: 0930-7575

meteo-00346948
https://hal-meteofrance.archives-ouvertes.fr/meteo-00346948
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-008-0375-9

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : We present field data from segmented normal faults having particular displacement and overlapping geometries that may be related to down-dip branching of the fault segments. Based on a 3-D numerical modeling study of computed displacement and stress fields around different geometries of down-dip branched normal fault segments, we show that the bends of fault surfaces that coalesce at depth exert a significant influence on (I) the displacement distribution on the fault segment branches and (2) the quasi-static stress fields around the relay zones. The asymmetry in the displacement profiles and low fault interaction at relay zones modeled are consistent with the fault segment geometries observed in field data. As an application, we model the geometry and interaction of the Vallo di Diano normal fault which is segmented at the Earth's surface and which produced an earthquake of magnitude 6.4 along a single fault surface at depth. Numerical modeling of the segmented fault produces an asymmetric displacement profile and low shear stress at the relay zone consistent with the profile and fault interaction inferred from the held. We conclude that asymmetry of the displacement profile and large overlap/separation ratio of the unlinked relay zone can be indicators of the presence of a continuous fault surface underneath. These geometrical attributes are therefore important to consider in the probabilistic analysis of seismic hazard along segmented normal faults.
ISSN: 0191-8141

hal-00411161
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00411161
DOI : 10.1016/j.jsg.2008.07.005

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
This paper deals with the study of the kinematic dimension of scribbling activities executed by kindergarten children aged from 3 to 6 years old from three grades. For this purpose, three sigma-lognormal features, six classical ones and one hybrid feature related to visuo-motor skills are extracted from scribbles realized using five different Type Grib. The statistical analysis of these data illustrates that sigma-lognormal modeling can satisfactorily reconstruct kindergarten children’s scribbles. Moreover, this preliminary study confirms that there are significant differences between grades with respect to six of the features we studied, regardless of the nature of the scribbling movement made by children. These features are related to rapidity, fluidity and precision of linear and curvilinear movements used for scribbling tasks.
17th Biennial Conference of the International Graphonomics Society
Pointe-à-Pitre, Guadeloupe

hal-01165910
https://hal.univ-antilles.fr/hal-01165910
https://hal.univ-antilles.fr/hal-01165910/document
https://hal.univ-antilles.fr/hal-01165910/file/IGS_2015_submission_28.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Oxford University Press (OUP)
Résumé : International audience
Rifting in a cratonic lithosphere is strongly controlled by several interacting processes including crust/mantle rheology, magmatism, inherited structure and stress regime. In order to better understand how these physical parameters interact, a 2 yr long seismological experiment has been carried out in the North Tanzanian Divergence (NTD), at the southern tip of the eastern magmatic branch of the East African rift, where the southward-propagating continental rift is at its earliest stage. We analyse teleseismic data from 38 broad-band stations ca. 25 km spaced and present here results from their receiver function (RF) analysis. The crustal thickness and Vp/Vs ratio are retrieved over a ca. 200 × 200 km2 area encompassing the South Kenya magmatic rift, the NTD and the Ngorongoro-Kilimanjaro transverse volcanic chain. Cratonic nature of the lithosphere is clearly evinced through thick (up to ca. 40 km) homogeneous crust beneath the rift shoulders. Where rifting is present, Moho rises up to 27 km depth and the crust is strongly layered with clear velocity contrasts in the RF signal. The Vp/Vs ratio reaches its highest values (ca. 1.9) beneath volcanic edifices location and thinner crust, advocating for melting within the crust. We also clearly identify two major low-velocity zones (LVZs) within the NTD, one in the lower crust and the second in the upper part of the mantle. The first one starts at 15–18 km depth and correlates well with recent tomographic models. This LVZ does not always coexist with high Vp/Vs ratio, pleading for a supplementary source of velocity decrease, such as temperature or composition. At a greater depth of ca. 60 km, a mid-lithospheric discontinuity roughly mimics the step-like and symmetrically outward-dipping geometry of the Moho but with a more slanting direction (NE–SW) compared to the NS rift. By comparison with synthetic RF, we estimate the associated velocity reduction to be 8–9 per cent. We relate this interface to melt ponding, possibly favouring here deformation process such as grain-boundary sliding (EAGBS) due to lithospheric strain. Its geometry might have been controlled by inherited lithospheric fabrics and heterogeneous upper mantle structure. We evidence that crustal and mantle magmatic processes represent first order mechanisms to ease and locate the deformation during the first stage of a cratonic lithospheric breakup.
ISSN: 0956-540X

hal-01622078
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01622078
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01622078/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01622078/file/plasmanGJI2017.pdf
DOI : 10.1093/gji/ggx177

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
We have inferred the deformation mechanisms of antigorite by high-resolution EBSD mapping of samples from Cerro del Almirez ultramafic massif (Betic Cordillera, SE Spain). Textural relations and phase diagram calculations constrain the foliation development conditions to the subduction prograde path at up to 600-630 °C and 1.6-1.9 GPa. Deformation was followed by static annealing of antigorite at ca. 680 °C. The Crystal Preferred Orientation (CPO) of antigorite is characterised by a strong alignment of (001) poles normal to the foliation plane and a weaker, but clear, parallelism between [100] axes and the macroscopic lineation defined by the elongation of magnetite aggregates. Analysis of misorientations across subgrains shows predominance of [010] rotation axis, consistent with activation of the [100](001) slip system. However, tilt subgrain boundaries subparallel to (100), probably formed by edge dislocations of this system, are subsidiary. Most subgrain boundaries are subparallel to (001) planes. They are interpreted as (001) twins wherein continuing viscoplastic deformation resulted in a slight increase of the misorientation between the twins. Modelling of the evolution of the antigorite CPO using a lower bound approach and considering different deformation regimes and sets of basal and non-basal slip systems has shown that intensities of [100] and [010] maxima reflect the relative strength of the antigorite [100](001) and [010](001) systems. Activation of other basal or non-basal slip systems does not change significantly the CPO patterns, but results in less concentrated CPO. 3D transpression models better reproduce the CPO of natural antigorite serpentinites. We propose that the widespread occurrence of strong CPO in high-pressure antigorite serpentinite is consistent with deformation by dislocation creep with dominant glide on [hk0](001), together with the activation of twinning, implying that a power law rheology would better account for the mechanical behaviour of antigorite serpentinite deep in the subduction channel and mantle wedge.
ISSN: 0012-821X

hal-00795511
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00795511
DOI : 10.1016/j.epsl.2012.06.049

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
The carbon capture and storage is considered as one of the solutions of reducing the effects of global warming. It consists in injecting large quantities of CO 2 in supercritical form directly into deeply located geological formations. One of the methods involves sequestration in the carbonate sedimentary rocks (sandstones and limestones) which are considered as a promising solution. The morphology of the pore network and solid skeleton defines important macroscopic prop-erties of the rock (permeability, stiffness). Modelling at micro scale of random heterogeneous materials (porous media) should be based on morphological and statistical characterisation 1,2 of the investigated microstructure. The work is focused on a reconstruction method by grains deposit 3 , for various range of pa-rameters, to obtain equivalent model of natural rock samples (oolitic limestone and fontainebleau sandstone). Generated samples satisfy morphological and statistical informations 4 which were obtained by 3D image analysis of X-ray tomography of the natural rock samples. For validation of the modelling numerical computations of mechanical and transfer properties are also provided.
14th European Mechanics of Materials Conference - EMMC14
Gothembourg, Sweden

hal-01103163
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01103163

Résumé : La nécessité d'une approche intégrée des pêches est actuellement largement affirmée, notamment par la FAO, en particulier dans le contexte des pêcheries artisanales tropicales. Ces pêcheries à petites échelles, souvent multi-spécifiques sont très importantes en termes d'emploi et de production, y compris pour la sécurité alimentaire. Néanmoins ces pêcheries et la biodiversité exploitées sont souvent marquées, d'une part, par le manque de données rendant difficile leur gestion dans le cadre d'une approche écosystémique, d'autre part, par la complexité des systèmes écologiques et économiques sous-jacents incluant interactions trophiques et techniques.Cette thèse contribue à la mise au point d'outils bioéconomiques adaptés aux petites pêcheries tropicales dans la perspective d'une gestion durable des pêches fondée sur l'approche écosystémique. Dans cette perspective, la pêcherie côtière en Guyane Française constitue un cas d'étude particulièrement fécond. La thèse propose ainsi des évaluations multi-critères, des modèles bioéconomiques complexes et des scénarios de gestion viable pour cette pêcherie.Dans un premier temps l'analyse statistique multi-variée suggère un statut global satisfaisant de la pêcherie en termes de durabilité. Cependant des différences de performance sont notées au sein de la pêcherie, notamment au niveau des zones frontalières. Aussi des améliorations dans le mode de gestion sont proposées. Ensuite, à travers la modélisation bioéconomique, les projections des différents scénarios de pêche montrent qu'à long terme le niveau d'exploitation actuel peut ne pas être en adéquation avec la future augmentation de la demande locale et qu'une perte de biodiversité peut avoir lieu. Un scénario dit de « co-viabilité » conciliant des objectifs à la fois écologique, économique et social, avec une probabilité de réalisation satisfaisante, est mis en exergue. Enfin, la comparaison des comportements optimaux en situation coopératif et non coopératif, montre dans quelle mesure la viabilité est favorisée quand les acteurs coopèrent. Au-delà du diagnostic apporté pour le cas d'étude, la méthode utilisée s'avère prometteuse dans le contexte des petites pêcheries tropicales, tandis que l'approche de « co-viabilité » permet de trouver les modalités d'exploitation dans le cadre de compromis entre durabilité écologique et socio-économique, ce que les principes de gestion halieutiques traditionnels ne permettent généralement pas.
The need for an integrated approach to fisheries is now widely affirmed, including the FAO, in particular in the context of tropical artisanal fisheries. These small-scale fisheries, often multispecies are very important in terms of production, employment and food security. However these fisheries and the exploited resources are often characterized by a lack of data making difficult their management within an ecosystem approach, and by the ecological and economic system complexities including trophic and technological interactions.This thesis aims to contribute to the development of bioeconomic tools for small tropical fisheries in a sustainable management perspective based on the ecosystem approach. In this perspective, the French Guiana coastal fishery constitutes an interesting case study. The thesis proposes multi-criteria evaluations, complex bioeconomic models and viable management scenarios for this fishery. At first, multivariate statistical analysis suggests a satisfactory overall status of the fishery in terms of sustainability. However, some performance differences are noted within the fishery, particularly at border areas. Also, management improvements are proposed. Then, through bioeconomic modeling, projections of different fishing scenarios show that, in the long term, the current exploitation level may not be consistent with the future increase of local demand and a loss of biodiversity may occur. A scenario called "co-viability" reconciling ecological, economic and social objectives, with a high probability of achievement is exhibited. Finally, the comparison of optimal behavior in cooperative and non-cooperative conditions, confirms that harvest levels are greater when actors do not cooperate. Furthermore, it is shown that the state of the ecosystem depends on the fishing strategies and the type of interaction between species. Beyond the diagnosis made for the case study, the method is promising in the context of small tropical fisheries, while the co-viability approach allows finding the exploitation conditions under which ecological and socio-economic sustainability are meet, what the conventional fisheries management generally do not allow.

http://www.theses.fr/2013AGUY0620/document

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Lippincott, Williams & Wilkins
Résumé : International audience
BACKGROUND: People in developed countries are widely exposed to low levels of organochlorine pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). Seafood is a major contributor to PCB exposure. Toxicity of those various pollutants to reproductive and endocrine functions raises questions about possible effects on fertility. We explored whether serum levels of these pollutants and seafood consumption were associated with the fertility of couples enrolled in a French birth cohort (PELAGIE). METHODS: Time-to-pregnancy was investigated in 3,421 pregnant women by asking how many months they had taken to conceive. Levels of 14 organochlorine pesticides, 12 PCBs, and 10 PBDE compounds were measured in cord blood serum from a random subcohort (n = 394). Mercury concentrations measured in maternal hair were considered as a potential coexposure. Fecundability odds ratios (ORs) were estimated from multivariate discrete-time Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Shellfish consumption was associated with longer time-to-pregnancy (fecundability OR ≥twice/week vs. 0.410 µg/L vs. <0.266 µg/L, fecundability OR = 0.46 [0.32-0.66]). In multiple sensitivity analyses, reduced fecundability was most consistently associated with shellfish consumption, p,p'-DDE, total PCBs, PCB153, and PCB187. Models that simultaneously included multiple coexposure factors led to similar conclusions. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings were robust in sensitivity analyses, including analysis restricted to primiparous women. These results suggest that PCBs, p,p'-DDE, and other shellfish contaminants may impair human fertility.
ISSN: 1044-3983

inserm-00826533
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00826533
DOI : 10.1097/EDE.0b013e31827f53ec
PUBMED : 23348067

Résumé : Les processus ponctuels sont souvent utilisés comme modèles de répartitions spatiales ou spatio-temporelles d'occurrences Dans cette thèse, nous nous intéressons à des processus de Cox dirigés par un processus caché associé à un processus de Dirichlet. Ce modèle correspond à des occurrences cachées influençant l'intensité stochastique des occurrences observées. Nous généralisons la notion de Shot noise Cox process et développons le traitement bayésien. Nous focalisons l'inférence statistique sur l'estimation de la valeur espérée de chaque contribution cachée, leur nombre espéré, degré d'influence spatiale et degré de corrélation L'utilité en épidémiologie et en écologie est démontrée à partir de données de Rubus fruticosa, lbicella lutea et de mortalité dans les cantons de Georgie, USA. En termes de données observées, deux situations sont considérées: d'abord, les positions spatiales des occurrences sont observées entre plusieurs paires de dates consécutives; puis, des comptages sont effectués dans des unités d'échantillonnage spatiales. D'autre part, nous nous intéressons aux processus ponctuels à mémoire introduits par Kagan, Ogata et Vere-Jones. En effet, les processus ponctuels ont une place importante dans l'étude des catalogues sismiques. Nous avons étudié un modèle Epidemie Type Aftershock Sequence avec une intensité d'arrière-plan indépendante du temps et plusieurs fonctions déclenchantes permettant d'intégrer les événements antérieurs récents. Cette approche est utilisée pour étudier la sismicité des Petites Antilles. Une étude comparative des modèles Gamma, Weibull, Log-Normal et loi d'Omori modifiée pour les fonctions déclenchantes est menée.
Point processes are often used as spatial or spatio-temporal distribution models of occurrences. In this Phd dissertation, we focus first on Cox processes driven by a hidden process associated with a Dirichlet process. This model corresponds to hidden occurrences influencing the stochastic intensity of observed occurrences. We generalize the notion of Shot noise Cox process and develop its bayesian analysis. We focus the statistical inference on the estimation of the hidden contribution expected value, the hidden contribution expected number, the spatial influence and correlation parameters. Applications in epidemiology and ecology are shown from Rubus fruticosa data, Ibicella lutea data and death number data in counties of Georgia, USA. Two situations are considered with respect to available data: firstly, the spatial positions of occurrences are observed between several pairs of consecutive dates; secondly, counts are carried out over a fixed time interval in several spatial sampling units. Secondly, we focus on point processes with memory intr oduced by Kagan, Ogata and Vere-Jones. Spatio-temporal point processes play an important role in the studies of earthquake catalogs since they consist of seismic events with their dates and spatial locations. We studied an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model with time independent background intensity and several triggering functions taking into account previous events. We illustrate our approach with a seismicity study of the Lesser Antilles arc. A comparaison study of Gamma, Weibull, Log-Normal and modified Omori law triggering function models is also carried out

http://www.theses.fr/2012AGUY0555/document

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD American Public Health Association
Résumé : International audience
BACKGROUND: It is well established that high adherence to HIV-infected patients on highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) is a major determinant of virological and immunologic success. Furthermore, psychosocial research has identified a wide range of adherence factors including patients' subjective beliefs about the effectiveness of HAART. Current statistical approaches, mainly based on the separate identification either of factors associated with treatment effectiveness or of those associated with adherence, fail to properly explore the true relationship between adherence and treatment effectiveness. Adherence behavior may be influenced not only by perceived benefits-which are usually the focus of related studies-but also by objective treatment benefits reflected in biological outcomes. METHODS: Our objective was to assess the bidirectional relationship between adherence and response to treatment among patients enrolled in the ANRS CO8 APROCO-COPILOTE study. We compared a conventional statistical approach based on the separate estimations of an adherence and an effectiveness equation to an econometric approach using a 2-equation simultaneous system based on the same 2 equations. RESULTS: Our results highlight a reciprocal relationship between adherence and treatment effectiveness. After controlling for endogeneity, adherence was positively associated with treatment effectiveness. Furthermore, CD4 count gain after baseline was found to have a positive significant effect on adherence at each observation period. This immunologic parameter was not significant when the adherence equation was estimated separately. In the 2-equation model, the covariances between disturbances of both equations were found to be significant, thus confirming the statistical appropriacy of studying adherence and treatment effectiveness jointly. CONCLUSIONS: Our results, which suggest that positive biological results arising as a result of high adherence levels, in turn reinforce continued adherence and strengthen the argument that patients who do not experience rapid improvement in their immunologic and clinical statuses after HAART initiation should be prioritized when developing adherence support interventions. Furthermore, they invalidate the hypothesis that HAART leads to "false reassurance" among HIV-infected patients.
ISSN: 0025-7079

hal-00875196
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00875196
DOI : 10.1097/MLR.0b013e3182422f61
PUBMED : 22362167

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union
Résumé : International audience
Time-lapse microgravity surveying combined with absolute gravity measurements is used to investigate water storage changes in a karst aquifer of similar to 100 km(2) area. The survey consists of 40 gravity stations measured with a relative gravimeter; absolute gravity is measured at three stations for each survey. In total, four gravity surveys are performed over a 2 year time period during consecutive wet and dry periods. Survey precisions range between 2.4 and 5 mu Gal, enabling statistically significant detection of 10 mu Gal change, i.e., similar to 0.25 m equivalent water level change. Observed gravity changes are coherent between consecutive survey periods, i.e., net water withdrawal and net water recharge is observed, reaching changes as high as 22 mu Gal. Observed gravity changes allow refining evapotranspiration estimates, which may serve to improve the water budget of the aquifer. High-and low-gravity amplitude zones characterize the karst system, demonstrating spatially variable storage behavior. Geomorphologic considerations are invoked to explain the location of preferential zones of water storage, and a conceptual model of water storage is discussed for the studied karst.
ISSN: 0148-0227

hal-00496400
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00496400
DOI : 10.1029/2009JB006616

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
In this paper, we propose a benchmarking of supervised machine learning techniques (neural networks, Gaussian processes and support vector machines) in order to forecast the Global Horizontal solar Irradiance (GHI). We also include in this benchmark a simple linear autoregressive (AR) model as well as two naive models based on persistence of the GHI and persistence of the clear sky index (denoted herein scaled persistence model). The models are calibrated and validatedwith data from three French islands: Corsica (41.91°N; 8.73°E), Guadeloupe (16.26°N; 61.51°W) and Reunion (21.34°S ; 55.49°E). The main findings of this work are, that for hour ahead solar forecasting,the machine learning techniques slightly improve the performances exhibited by the linear AR and the scaled persistence model. However, the improvement appears to be more pronounced in case of unstable sky conditions.These nonlinear techniques start to outperform their simple counterparts for forecasting horizons greater than one hour.
ISSN: 0038-092X

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
hal-01099211
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01099211
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01099211/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01099211/file/Manuscript_Lauretetal_Rev_unmarked.pdf