Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD International Association for Energy Economics
Résumé : International audience
In this paper we propose to determinate and to test a set ofstatistical parameters (20)to estimate the predictability of the global horizontal irradiation time series and thereby propose a new prospective tool indicating the expected error regardlessthe forecasting methodsa modeller can possibly implement. The mean absolute log return, which is a tool usually used in econometry, proves to be a very good estimator. Some examples of the use of this tool are exposed, showing the interest of this statistical parameter in concrete cases of predictions or optimizations.
ISSN: 0195-6574

hal-01180041
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01180041
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01180041/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01180041/file/discriminent_param.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : International audience
The benefit of assimilating high spatial and temporal resolution Global Positioning System (GPS) zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) observations within a high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) system is evaluated during IOP 9 of the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) campaign. In the framework of the international COPS field experiment, which took place from June to August 2007, a dense GPS network was deployed in the Vosges mountain region in eastern France and in the Black Forest region in southwestern Germany. GPS ZTD observations collected during the COPS field campaign, in addition to the European operational GPS data, are assimilated into the AROME/3D-Var system. We investigate the impact of assimilating these GPS ZTD observations on the forecast of convective systems that travelled over eastern France during the three days of COPS IOP 9 (18-20 July 2007). The results show a clear positive impact on short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts when GPS ZTD observations are assimilated. The impact is most important on 19 July 2007 (IOP 9b). The present study benefits from additional validation measurements collected during the COPS campaign. In particular we find that the assimilation of ZTD data induces changes in the low-to-middle tropospheric water vapour vertical structure that are consistent with water vapour measurements from radiosonde and airborne lidar. As most of the improvement is gained by assimilating GPS ZTD observations from the European operational GPS network, this study opens up encouraging horizons for the assimilation of GPS ZTD in new high-resolution operational NWP systems
ISSN: 0035-9009

hal-00424350
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00424350
DOI : 10.1002/qj.508

Éditeur(s) : Taylor & Francis Ltd
Résumé : A new method is developed to estimate daily turbulent airsea fluxes over the global ocean on a 0.25 degrees grid. The required surface wind speed (w(10)) and specific air humidity (q(10)) at 10m height are both estimated from remotely sensed measurements. w(10) is obtained from the SeaWinds scatterometer on board the QuikSCAT satellite. A new empirical model relating brightness temperatures (T-b) from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and q(10) is developed. It is an extension of the author's previous q(10) model. In addition to T-b, the empirical model includes sea surface temperature (SST) and airsea temperature difference data. The calibration of the new empirical q(10) model utilizes q(10) from the latest version of the National Oceanography Centre airsea interaction gridded data set (NOCS2.0). Compared with mooring data, the new satellite q(10) exhibits better statistical results than previous estimates. For instance, the bias, the root mean square (RMS), and the correlation coefficient values estimated from comparisons between satellite and moorings in the northeast Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea are 0.04gkg(1), 0.87gkg(1), and 0.95, respectively. The new satellite q(10) is used in combination with the newly reprocessed QuikSCAT V3, the latest version of SST analyses provided by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and 10m air temperature estimated from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalyses (ERA-Interim), to determine three daily gridded turbulent quantities at 0.25 degrees spatial resolution: surface wind stress, latent heat flux (LHF), and sensible heat flux (SHF). Validation of the resulting fields is performed through a comprehensive comparison with daily, in situ values of LHF and SHF from buoys. In the northeast Atlantic basin, the satellite-derived daily LHF has bias, RMS, and correlation of 5Wm(2), 27Wm(2), and 0.89, respectively. For SHF, the statistical parameters are 2Wm(2), 10Wm(2), and 0.94, respectively. At global scale, the new satellite LHF and SHF are compared to NOCS2.0 daily estimates. Both daily fluxes exhibit similar spatial and seasonal variability. The main departures are found at latitudes south of 40 degrees S, where satellite latent and sensible heat fluxes are generally larger.
International Journal Of Remote Sensing (0143-1161) (Taylor & Francis Ltd), 2013-07 , Vol. 34 , N. 14 , P. 5243-5261

Droits : 2013 Taylor & Francis
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00137/24825/23575.pdf
DOI:10.1080/01431161.2013.787502
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00137/24825/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : International audience
The Convective and Orographically-driven Precipitation Study (COPS) carried out in summer 2007 over northeastern France and southwestern Germany provided a fairly comprehensive description of the low-troposphere water-vapour field, thanks in particular to the deployment of two airborne differential absorption lidar systems. These lidar observations were assimilated using the 3D-Var assimilation system of the Application of Research to Operations at MEsoscale (AROME) numerical weather prediction mesoscale model. The assimilation was carried out for the period 4 July-3 August by running a three-hour forward intermittent assimilation cycle. First, the impact of the lidar observations was assessed by comparing the analyses with a set of more than 200 independent soundings. The lidar observations were found to have a positive impact on the analyses by reducing the dry bias in the first 500 m above ground level and by diminishing the root-mean-square error by roughly 15% in the first km. Then the impact of the lidar observations was assessed by comparing the precipitation forecasts (obtained with and without the lidar observations for the period 15 July-2 August) with the gridded precipitation observations provided by the Vienna Enhanced Resolution Analysis. In general, the impact was found to be positive but not significant for the 24 h precipitation and positive and significant for the 6 h precipitation, with an improvement lasting up to 24 h. Some selected case studies show that the improvement was obtained through a better depiction of convection initiation or through a more accurate positioning of the precipitation systems
ISSN: 0035-9009

hal-00659497
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00659497
DOI : 10.1002/qj.1864

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : International audience
High spatial and temporal variability of mesoscale moisture fields is still a challenge for quantitative precipitation forecast within numerical weather prediction (NWP) models especially over ocean regions where observations are lacking. This study presents the comparison between integrated water vapor over the Mediterranean Sea determined from shipborne GPS, the NWP ALADIN/Météo-France model and MODIS retrieval during a 4-month campaign (autumn 2008). While moisture prediction of the NWP remains accurate during most of the observation period, there are significant periods with offsets between GPS data and model predictions. We analyze such events and discuss the associated meteorological situation. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society
ISSN: 1530-261X

hal-00757776
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00757776
DOI : 10.1002/asl.391

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Royal Society, The
Résumé : International audience
Infectious marine diseases can decimate populations and are increasing among some taxa due to global change and our increasing reliance on marine environments. Marine diseases become emergencies when significant ecological, economic or social impacts occur. We can prepare for and manage these emergencies through improved surveillance, and the development and iterative refinement of approaches to mitigate disease and its impacts. Improving surveillance requires fast, accurate diagnoses, forecasting disease risk and real-time monitoring of disease-promoting environmental conditions. Diversifying impact mitigation involves increasing host resilience to disease, reducing pathogen abundance and managing environmental factors that facilitate disease. Disease surveillance and mitigation can be adaptive if informed by research advances and catalysed by communication among observers, researchers and decision-makers using information-sharing platforms. Recent increases in the awareness of the threats posed by marine diseases may lead to policy frameworks that facilitate the responses and management that marine disease emergencies require.
ISSN: 0962-8436

hal-01282464
https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01282464
DOI : 10.1098/rstb.2015.0364

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Royal Society, The
Résumé : International audience
To forecast marine disease outbreaks as oceans warm requires new environmental surveillance tools. We describe an iterative process for developing these tools that combines research, development and deployment for suitable systems. The first step is to identify candidate host–pathogen systems. The 24 candidate systems we identified include sponges, corals, oysters, crustaceans, sea stars, fishes and sea grasses (among others). To illustrate the other steps, we present a case study of epizootic shell disease (ESD) in the American lobster. Increasing prevalence of ESD is a contributing factor to lobster fishery collapse in southern New England (SNE), raising concerns that disease prevalence will increase in the northern Gulf of Maine under climate change. The lowest maximum bottom temperature associated with ESD prevalence in SNE is 128C. Our seasonal outlook for 2015 and long-term projections show bottom temperatures greater than or equal to 128C may occur in this and coming years in the coastal bays of Maine. The tools presented will allow managers to target efforts to monitor the effects of ESD on fishery sustainability and will be iteratively refined. The approach and case example highlight that temperature-based surveillance tools can inform research, monitoring and management of emerging and continuing marine disease threats.
ISSN: 0080-4622

Droits : http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
hal-01282834
https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01282834
https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01282834/document
https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01282834/file/20150208.full.pdf
DOI : 10.1098/rstb.2015.0208

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : For operational forecasts anticipate convective inhibition processes is as important than convective initiation processes. Based on the 15th July 2007 case study this work shows how the morning shallow convection over the Vosges is inhibited while it develops over the Black Forest. This case occurs during IOP 8b of the Convective and Orographically-Induced Precipitation Study (COPS). This international field campaign took place during the summer of 2007 over the Vosges, the Rhine Valley and the Black-Forest. The aim of this intensive observation campaign was to study various phases of convection and convective environment and improve quantitative precipitation forecasts. Thanks to GPS tomography data the study show the differences of low-level water-vapor variability between Vosges and Black-Forest. The analysis of ground based and airborne lidar data suggests the importance of dry air layers advected from the south and the influence of the mountains and diurnal cycle of mountain breeze which interfere strongly with these layers preventing the dry air to reach the eastern side of the mountain and the Black Forest. This dynamics is confirmed by models, wind profiler and radiosounding data. So we show how the inhibition of the convection over the Vosges during this case study can be explained with the water vapor variability due to advection and local boundary layer processes.
31st ICAM (International Conference on Alpine Meteorology)
Aviemore, United Kingdom

hal-00668829
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00668829

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Météo et Climat
Résumé : International audience
Le premier volet du projet Cyprim vise à mieux identifier les précurseurs des cyclogenèses et des précipitations intenses en région méditerranéenne. Cet article en présente les principaux résultats. Il est question des ingrédients météorologiques à l'origine de ces systèmes, de la grande à la mésoéchelle, des causes des fortes intensités, localisations et parfois stationnarité des récipitations associées. Le coeur de l'article présente des méthodes d'identification des anomalies de tourbillon potentiel liées à l'occurrence d'événements précipitants intenses et dresse une climatologie de ces anomalies. Les perspectives d'exploitation de cette information pour améliorer la qualité des prévisions sont évoquées. ENGLISH VERSION: The first part of the CYPRIM project (Cyclogenesis and intense precipitations in the Mediterranean region) aims at a better identification of the precursor structures of cyclogenesis and heavy precipitation in the Mediterranean region. This article presents the main results. It mentions the meteorological ingredients from which these systems originate from the large to themesoscale, the reasons for large intensities, the localization and sometimes stationarity of the associated precipitations. The heart of the article shows methods for identifiying potential vorticity anomalies involved in the occurrence of heavy precipitation events and sets up a climatology of these anomalies.The perspectives of the usefulness of this information for improving forecast quality are discussed.
ISSN: 0026-1181

insu-00448250
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00448250
DOI : 10.4267/2042/28828

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley-Blackwell
Résumé : International audience
Understanding the distribution of genetic diversity in the light of past demographic events linked with climatic shifts will help to forecast evolutionary trajectories of ecosystems within the current context of climate change. In this study, mitochondrial sequences and microsatellite loci were analysed using traditional population genetic approaches together with Bayesian dating and the more recent approximate Bayesian computation scenario testing. The genetic structure and demographic history of a commercial fish, the black scorpionfish, Scorpaena porcus, was investigated throughout the Mediterranean and Black Seas. The results suggest that the species recently underwent population expansions, in both seas, likely concomitant with the warming period following the Last Glacial Maximum, 20 000 years ago. A weak contemporaneous genetic differentiation was identified between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. However, the genetic diversity was similar for populations of the two seas, suggesting a high number of colonizers entered the Black Sea during the interglacial period and/or the presence of a refugial population in the Black Sea during the glacial period. Finally, within seas, an east/west genetic differentiation in the Adriatic seems to prevail, whereas the Black Sea does not show any structured spatial genetic pattern of its population. Overall, these results suggest that the Black Sea is not that isolated from the Mediterranean, and both seas revealed similar evolutionary patterns related to climate change and changes in sea level.
ISSN: 1471-8278

hal-01330323
https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01330323
DOI : 10.1111/mec.13616

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : Water vapour is highly variable in the atmosphere with concentration reaching saturation in the tropics and with dry areas over elevated continental region. Good knowledge of the amount of integrated water vapour in the air is necessary to predict phase changes and in particular precipitation. Water vapour variability measurements are still insufficient with standard observing systems. Moreover accurate GPS antenna positioning is affected by the refractivity index variation in the troposphere. Consequently, vertical positioning component estimation is difficult. This variation is directly linked to distribution of variables such as pressure, temperature and humidity along the path between satellite and receiver. Here we study more specifically heavy rains et notably Cevenols events. This thesis work consists to check the GPS measurement validity to quantify water vapour in comparison with measurements from radiosoundings and meteorological model outputs. GPS observations and flux surface information have been analysed to see if water vapour quantification by GPS allowed characterising heavy rain events (cumulative rainfall amount greater than 150 mm). Then, we tested the GPS data assimilation impact on cumulative precipitation forecasts using the high resolution Meteo France AROME model (2.5 km). Finally the quality and the contribution of GPS measurement on sea is evaluated for water vapour measurement. This study has been realised in the framework of VAPIMED experiment.
La vapeur d'eau varie largement dans l'atmosphère avec des concentrations allant de la saturation dans les tropiques à des zones presque sèches au-dessus des zones continentales élevées. Une bonne connaissance du contenu en vapeur d'eau dans l'air est nécessaire pour la prévision des changements de phases, notamment les précipitations. La mesure de la variabilité de la vapeur d'eau est une lacune des systèmes d'observation. Par ailleurs, il est apparu que le positionnement précis des antennes GPS était affecté par la variation de l'indice de réfraction dans la troposphère, ce qui rend particulièrement difficile l'estimation de la composante verticale. Cette variation est directement liée à la distribution des variables pression, température et humidité sur les trajets satellite-récepteur. On s'intéresse ici à l'étude des précipitations intenses et notamment aux épisodes Cévenols. Ce travail de thèse consiste à vérifier la validité de la mesure GPS pour la quantification de la vapeur d'eau en la comparant avec des mesures issues de radiosondage et des sorties de modèle météorologique. On cherche à analyser si la quantification de vapeur d'eau par GPS permet de caractériser les forts événements précipitants (cumuls supérieurs à 150 mm) à l'aide d'observations conjointes sur les flux de surface. On étudie ensuite l'impact de l'assimilation de données GPS issues d'un réseau GPS dense sur la prévision des cumuls de pluies dans le modèle à hauterésolution (2.5 km) AROME de Météo France. Finalement on évalue la qualité et l'apport de la mesure de vapeur d'eau par GPS en mer dans le cadre d'une campagne de mesure VAPIMED).
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00444081

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
tel-00444081
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00444081
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00444081/document
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00444081/file/These_KBoniface.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Springer Verlag
Résumé : International audience
Seasonal climate forecasts mainly rely on the atmospheric sensitivity to its lower boundary conditions and on their own predictability. Besides sea surface temperature (SST), soil moisture (SM) may be an additional source of climate predictability particularly during boreal summer in the mid-latitudes. In this work, we investigate the role of SM initial conditions on near-surface climate predictability during ten boreal summer seasons using three complementary ensembles of AMIP-type simulations performed with the Arpège-Climat atmospheric general circulation model. First we have conducted an assessment of the SM predictability itself through a comparison of simple empirical SM models with Arpège-Climat. The statistical and dynamical models reveal similar SM prediction skill patterns but the Arpège-Climat reaches higher scores suggesting that it is at least suitable to explore the influence of SM initialization on atmospheric predictability. Then we evaluate the relationships between SM predictability and some near surface atmospheric predictability. While SM initialization obviously improves the predictability of land surface evaporation, it has no systematic influence on the precipitation and near surface temperature skills. Nevertheless, the summer hindcast skill is clearly improved during specific years and over certain regions (mainly north America and eastern Europe in the Arpège-Climat model), when and where the SM forcing is sufficiently widespread and strong. In this case, a significant impact is also found on the occurrence of heat waves and heavy rains, whose predictability at the seasonal timescale is a crucial challenge for years to come.
ISSN: 0930-7575

meteo-00346948
https://hal-meteofrance.archives-ouvertes.fr/meteo-00346948
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-008-0375-9

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD MDPI
Résumé : International audience
The issue of drinking water quality compliance in small and medium scale water services is of paramount importance in relation to the 98/83/CE European Drinking Water Directive (DWD). Additionally, concerns are being expressed over the implementation of the DWD with respect to possible impacts on water quality from forecast changes in European climate with global warming and further anticipated reductions in north European acid emissions. Consequently, we have developed a decision support system (DSS) named ARTEM-WQ (AwaReness Tool for the Evaluation and Mitigation of drinking Water Quality issues resulting from environmental changes) to support decision making by small and medium plant operators and other water stakeholders. ARTEM-WQ is based on a sequential risk analysis approach that includes consideration of catchment characteristics, climatic conditions and treatment operations. It provides a holistic evaluation of the water system, while also assessing human health risks of organic contaminants potentially present in treated waters (steroids, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, bisphenol-a, polychlorobiphenyls, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, petrochemical hydrocarbons and disinfection by-products; n = 109). Moreover, the system provides recommendations for improvement while supporting decision making in its widest context. The tool has been tested on various European catchments and shows a promising potential to inform water managers of risks and appropriate mitigative actions. Further improvements should include toxicological knowledge advancement, environmental background pollutant concentrations and the assessment of the impact of distribution systems on water quality variation.
ISSN: 1660-4601

hal-01122233
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01122233
PUBMED : 25046634
DOI : 10.3390/ijerph110707354
PUBMEDCENTRAL : PMC4113881

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
Semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) partition indoors between the gas phase, airborne particles, settled dust, and other surfaces. Unknown concentrations of SVOCs in the gas phase (Cg) can be predicted from their measured concentrations in airborne particles. In previous studies, the prediction of Cg depended largely on choosing a specific equation for the calculation of the particle/gas partition coefficient. Moreover, the prediction of Cg is frequently performed at a reference temperature rather than the real indoor temperature. In this paper, a probabilistic approach based on Monte Carlo simulation was developed to predict the distribution of SVOCs' Cg from their concentrations in airborne particles at the target indoor temperature. Moreover, the distribution of the particle/gas partition coefficient of each SVOC at the target temperature was used. The approach was validated using two measured datasets in the literature: the predicted Cg from concentrations measured in airborne particles and the measured Cg were generally of the same order of magnitude. The distributions of the Cg of 66 SVOCs in the French housing stock were then predicted. The SVOCs with the highest median Cg, ranging from 1 ng/m3 to > 100 ng/m3, included 8 phthalates (DEP, DiBP, DBP, DEHP, BBP, DMP, DiNP, and DMEP), 4 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (fluorene, phenanthrene, fluoranthene, and anthracene), 2 alkylphenols (4-tert-butylphenol and 4-tert-octylphenol), 2 synthetic musks (galaxolide and tonalide), tributyl phosphate, and heptachlor. The nationwide, representative, predicted Cg values of SVOCs are frequently of the same order of magnitude in Europe and North America, whereas these Cg values in Chinese and Indian dwellings and the Cg of polybrominated diphenyl ethers in U.S. dwellings are generally higher. © 2016 Elsevier B.V.
Science of the Total Environment

hal-01467547
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01467547
DOI : 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.074
PUBMED : 27788447

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
Tropical islands are characterized by thermal and orographical forcings which may generate microscale air mass circulations. The Lesser Antilles Arc includes small tropical islands (width lower than 50 km) where a total of one-and-a-half million people live. Air quality over this region is affected by anthropogenic and volcanic emissions, or saharan dust. To reduce risks for the population health, the atmospheric dispersion of emitted pollutants must be predicted. In this study, the dispersion of anthropogenic nitrogen oxides (NOx) is numerically modelled over the densely populated area of the Guadeloupe archipelago under weak trade winds, during a typical case of severe pollution. The main goal is to analyze how microscale resolutions affect air pollution in a small tropical island. Three resolutions of domain grid are selected: 1 km, 333 m and 111 m. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is used to produce real nested microscale meteorological fields. Then the weather outputs initialize the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (FLEXPART). The forward simulations of a power plant plume showed good ability to reproduce nocturnal peaks recorded by an urban air quality station. The increase in resolution resulted in an improvement of model sensitivity. The nesting to subkilometer grids helped to reduce an overestimation bias mainly because the LES domains better simulate the turbulent motions governing nocturnal flows. For peaks observed at two air quality stations, the backward sensitivity outputs identified realistic sources of NOx in the area. The increase in resolution produced a sharper inverse plume with a more accurate source area. This study showed the first application of the FLEXPART-WRF model to microscale resolutions. Overall, the coupling model WRF-LES-FLEXPART is useful to simulate the pollutant dispersion during a real case of calm wind regime over a complex terrain area. The forward and backward simulation results showed clearly that the subkilometer resolution of 333 m is necessary to reproduce realistic air pollution patterns in this case of short-range transport over a complex terrain area. Globally, this work contributes to enrich the sparsely documented domain of real nested microscale air pollution modelling. This study dealing with the determination of the proper resolution grid and proper turbulence scheme, is of significant interest to the near-source and complex terrain air quality research community.
ISSN: 1352-2310

hal-01349208
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01349208
DOI : 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.05.028

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Public Library of Science
Résumé : Precise mapping of above-ground biomass (AGB) is a major challenge for the success of REDD+ processes in tropical rainforest. The usual mapping methods are based on two hypotheses: a large and long-ranged spatial autocorrelation and a strong environment influence at the regional scale. However, there are no studies of the spatial structure of AGB at the landscapes scale to support these assumptions. We studied spatial variation in AGB at various scales using two large forest inventories conducted in French Guiana. The dataset comprised 2507 plots (0.4 to 0.5 ha) of undisturbed rainforest distributed over the whole region. After checking the uncertainties of estimates obtained from these data, we used half of the dataset to develop explicit predictive models including spatial and environmental effects and tested the accuracy of the resulting maps according to their resolution using the rest of the data. Forest inventories provided accurate AGB estimates at the plot scale, for a mean of 325 Mg.ha^-1. They revealed high local variability combined with a weak autocorrelation up to distances of no more than10 km. Environmental variables accounted for a minor part of spatial variation. Accuracy of the best model including spatial effects was 90 Mg.ha^-1 at plot scale but coarse graining up to 2-km resolution allowed mapping AGB with accuracy lower than 50 Mg.ha^-1. Whatever the resolution, no agreement was found with available pan-tropical reference maps at all resolutions. We concluded that the combined weak autocorrelation and weak environmental effect limit AGB maps accuracy in rainforest, and that a trade-off has to be found between spatial resolution and effective accuracy until adequate “wall-to-wall” remote sensing signals provide reliable AGB predictions. Waiting for this, using large forest inventories with low sampling rate (<0.5%) may be an efficient way to increase the global coverage of AGB maps with acceptable accuracy at kilometric resolution
ISSN: 1932-6203

hal-01269305
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01269305
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0138456
PRODINRA : 326359

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Oxford University Press (OUP)
Résumé : International audience
No major earthquake occurred in North Chile since the 1877 Mw 8.6 subduction earthquake that produced a huge tsunami. However, geodetic measurements conducted over the last decade in this area show that the upper plate is actually deforming, which reveals some degree of locking on the subduction interface. This accumulation of elastic deformation is likely to be released in a future earthquake. Because of the long elapsed time since 1877 and the rapid accumulation of deformation (thought to be 6-7 cm yr−1), many consider this area is a mature seismic gap where a major earthquake is due and seismic hazard is high. We present a new Global Positioning System (GPS) velocity field, acquired between 2008 and 2012, that describes in some detail the interseismic deformation between 18°S and 24°S. We invert for coupling distribution on the Nazca-South America subduction interface using elastic modelling. Our measurements require that, at these latitudes, 10 to 12 mm yr−1 (i.e. 15 per cent of the whole convergence rate) are accommodated by the clockwise rotation of an Andean block bounded to the East by the subandean fold-and-thrust belt. This reduces the accumulation rate on the subduction interface to 56 mm yr−1 in this area. Coupling variations on the subduction interface both along-strike and along-dip are described. We find that the North Chile seismic gap is segmented in at least two highly locked segments bounded by narrow areas of weak coupling. This coupling segmentation is consistent with our knowledge of the historical ruptures and of the instrumental seismicity of the region. Intersegment zones (Iquique, Mejillones) correlate with high background seismic rate and local tectonic complexities on the upper or downgoing plates. The rupture of either the Paranal or the Loa segment alone could easily produce a Mw 8.0-8.3 rupture, and we propose that the Loa segment (from 22.5°S to 20.8°S) may be the one that ruptured in 1877.
ISSN: 0956-540X

hal-00941279
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00941279
DOI : 10.1093/gji/ggt183

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
Modelling techniques for river hydrologic forecasting systems have taken advantage of machine learning methods especially for flood prediction. But current solutions, mostly based on artificial neural networks do not always meet end users requirements on the readability and the understandability of predictive models. In this paper, we present a new version of our original solution based on the concept of aggregate variables in order to predict flash flood events from observed water level and/or rain measurements, particularly in the context of caribbean watersheds in which flash flood are much uncertain. We combine aggregate variables in juries. Juries of aggregate variables are trained and tested using a typical 10-fold cross validation scheme. Best juries are searched through an evolutionary approach that is optimized. Different parameters are set up like aggregation periods and jury sizes to prove the efficiency of the proposed approach compared to classical solutions.
Congress on Evolutionary Computation (CEC) 2013
Cancun, Mexico

hal-00847582
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00847582
DOI : 10.1109/CEC.2013.6557656

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : At present, the forecasting of littoral evolution presents a considerable social stake. Many studies have been achieved to better understand coastal dynamics. Such dynamics are controlled by morphology, sediment supply, hydrodynamics, eustacy... at different time scales. At geological time scale, deposits geometry, controlled by eustacy and subsidence, is succesfully analysed where sediment supply is high. But the littoral zones present important sediment supply variability. In low sediment supply areas, the record of coastal tracts is smaller and harder to interprete. Analyses of about 250 kilometres of new VHR seismic profiles acquired along the languedocian coast (Northern Gulf of Lion, France), tens of short cores and outcrops data allowed us to determine the three-dimensional high-resolution geometry of the coastal tracts from Quaternary to present-day. This highlighted the role of alongshore dynamics in coast where direct sediment supply is low. The concepts of protected lagoon and isolated lagoon were broughted to the fore and the effect of inherited incised valley morphology was discussed. Last, a complementary study by analogue modeling of the channel incision processes controled by eustatic and climatic changes allowed to discuss the role of incised valleys in coastal areas.
Actuellement, la prévision de l'évolution d'un système littoral représente un enjeu social important. De nombreuses études sont réalisées afin de mieux connaitre la dynamique côtière et donc de comprendre les facteurs qui influencent son évolution. Cette dynamique est contrôlée par la morphologie, les apports sédimentaires, l'hydrodynamique, l'eustatisme... qui agissent à des échelles de temps différentes et avec de fortes interactions. A l'échelle géologique, l'architecture des dépôts, contrôlée par l'eustatisme et la subsidence, est parfaitement décrite dans les zones à forts apports sédimentaires. Par contre, dans les zones à faibles apports sédimentaires, l'enregistrement des cortèges côtiers est réduit et est difficile à interpréter. L'analyse de 250 kilomètres de profils sismiques THR sur le littoral languedocien (Nord du Golfe du Lion, France), de carottages et de données de terrain a permis de déterminer la géométrie en trois dimensions des cortèges sédimentaires côtiers depuis le Quaternaire jusqu'à l'actuel. Ces observations montrent l'importance de la dynamique longshore sur les littoraux pauvres en apports sédimentaires directs. De plus, l'étude d'un système lagunaire sur ce littoral met en évidence les concepts de lagunes protégées et lagunes isolées ainsi que l'importance des vallées incisées dans la génèse de ces environnements. Enfin, la modélisation en laboratoire des processus d'incision de chenaux sous contrôle eustatique et climatique permet de discuter le rôle des vallées incisées en milieu côtier.
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00542897

tel-00542897
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00542897
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00542897/document
https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00542897/file/theseraynaldef.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
In the context of climate change, this study presents the ability of major/trace elements together with strontiumisotopes to trace back water paths at small scale and to deconvolve the geochemical signal of a small watershedsubject to intense flash floods episodes (Peyne, Hérault, France). Two small sub-basins draining distinct lithologiesin their heads (Plio-Villafranchian conglomerate versus Triassic gypsum-rich marls and dolomites) and the sameMiocene lithology downstream are investigated.Major elements and Ca/Na vs. Mg/Na ratios classically applied at large scale to distinguish carbonate from silicateweathering, allow here discriminating the three main lithologies from the two sub-basins. Trace elements Rband Sr coupled to calcium, also allow this lithological discrimination but in addition the Ca/Rb vs. Sr/Rb tracersappear to be much more discriminant for the various hydrological conditions. Thus, in combination with detailedlithological descriptions, they allow identifying the different facies that imprint the water signature through water-rock interaction according to the hydrological conditions.Strontium isotopes and Rb/Sr ratio, discriminate more precisely the drained lithologies of the 2 sub-basins. Firstly,the 87Sr/86Sr ratios allow identifying the nature of the lithologies and their main component(s) contributing to theSr budget in water and thus imprint the isotopic signature. Secondly, Sr isotopes evidenced two distinct Miocenefacies: the detritric faction (sandy marls), and the marine carbonates.The geochemical signatures of the brook samples draining both compartments were compared to the signatureof the Peyne River outlet just before the confluence into the Hérault River. It appears that the signature of thePeyne River, integrating all the water draining the basin, is relatively stable whatever the hydrological conditionsand mainly marked by the Miocene formations. Sr isotopes further highlight that this signature seems to resultfrom the mixing of both Miocene facies present in the lower part of the Peyne watershed, i.e. the sandy marls andthe carbonates. The typical signatures of the Plio-Villafanchian conglomerates and Triassic gypsiferous marls anddolomites of the headwaters of each sub-basin are completely hidden by the Miocene signatures. This should berelated to the large drainage area of the Miocene compared to other lithologies, despite the high solubility of thegypsum formations releasing large quantities of dissolved elements in solution.Understanding water paths at small scale is even more efficient when the geochemical approach is coupled with adetailed geological description. Indeed, the geochemical tracers are extremely dependent on the facies sequences(morphology) and of the soil nature (mineralogical composition), this is particularly sensitive at small scale.In the context of climate change increasing the intensity of rain events in the Mediterranean region, and resultingin catastrophic floods events (flash floods), tracing the origin of water contributing to the runoff is of primaryimportance and this must be investigated at small scale. Geochemical and isotopic fingerprinting thus constituteexcellent tools which can help to define the area of interest to be monitored in the framework of flood forecast andwarning networks
EGU General Assembly 2015
Vienne, Austria

hal-01118622
https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01118622