Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier Masson
Résumé :  
Modeling soil water availability for tropical trees is a prerequisite to predicting the future impact of climate change on tropical forests. In this paper we develop a discrete-time deterministic water balance model adapted to tropical rainforest climates, and we validate it on a large dataset that includes micrometeorological and soil parameters along a topographic gradient in a lowland forest of French Guiana. The model computes daily water fluxes (rainfall interception, drainage, tree transpiration and soil plus understorey evapotranspiration) and soil water content using three input variables: daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and solar radiation. A novel statistical approach is employed that uses Time Domain Reflectometer (TDR) soil moisture data to estimate water content at permanent wilting point and at field capacity, and root distribution. Inaccuracy of the TDR probes and other sources of uncertainty are taken into account by model calibration through a Bayesian framework. Model daily output includes relative extractable water, REW, i.e. the daily available water standardized by potential available water. The model succeeds in capturing temporal variations in REW regardless of topographic context. The low Root Mean Square Error of Predictions suggests that the model captures the most important drivers of soil water dynamics, i.e. water refilling and root water extraction. Our model thus provides a useful tool to explore the response of tropical forests to climate scenarios of changing rainfall regime and intensity.
ISSN: 0168-1923

hal-01032181
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01032181
DOI : 10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.04.012

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Royal Society, The
Résumé : International audience
To forecast marine disease outbreaks as oceans warm requires new environmental surveillance tools. We describe an iterative process for developing these tools that combines research, development and deployment for suitable systems. The first step is to identify candidate host–pathogen systems. The 24 candidate systems we identified include sponges, corals, oysters, crustaceans, sea stars, fishes and sea grasses (among others). To illustrate the other steps, we present a case study of epizootic shell disease (ESD) in the American lobster. Increasing prevalence of ESD is a contributing factor to lobster fishery collapse in southern New England (SNE), raising concerns that disease prevalence will increase in the northern Gulf of Maine under climate change. The lowest maximum bottom temperature associated with ESD prevalence in SNE is 128C. Our seasonal outlook for 2015 and long-term projections show bottom temperatures greater than or equal to 128C may occur in this and coming years in the coastal bays of Maine. The tools presented will allow managers to target efforts to monitor the effects of ESD on fishery sustainability and will be iteratively refined. The approach and case example highlight that temperature-based surveillance tools can inform research, monitoring and management of emerging and continuing marine disease threats.
ISSN: 0080-4622

Droits : http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
hal-01282834
https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01282834
https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01282834/document
https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01282834/file/20150208.full.pdf
DOI : 10.1098/rstb.2015.0208

Résumé : Les travaux de recherche présentés dans ce mémoire s'inscrivent dans la lignée des approches de modélisation hydrologiques prédictives dirigées par les données. Nous avons particulièrement développé leur application sur le contexte difficile des phénomènes de crue éclairs caractéristiques des bassins versants de la région Caraïbe qui pose un dé fi sé.curi taire. En envisageant le problème de la prévision de crues comme un problème d'optimisation combinatoire difficile nous proposons d'utiliser la notion de métaneuristiques, à travers les algorithmes évolutionnaire notamment pour leur capacité à parcourir efficacement de grands espaces de recherche et fi fournir des solutions de bOlIDe qualité en des temps d'exécution raisonnables. Nous avons présenté l'approche de prédiction AV2D : Aggregate Variable Data Driven dom le concept central est la notion de variable agrégée. L'idée sous-jacente à ce concept est de considérer le pouvoir prédictif de nouvelles variables définies comme le résultat de fonctions tatistiques, dites d'agrégation calculées sur de donnée' correspondant à des périodes de temps précédent uo événem nt à prédire. Ces variable sont caractérisées par des ensembles de paramètres correspondant a leur pJ:opriétés. Nous avons imroduitle variables agrégées hydrométéorologiques permettant de répondre au problème de la classification d événements hydrologiques. La complexité du parcours de l'espace de recherche engendré par les paramètres définissant ces variables a été prise en compte grâce à la njse en oeuvre d'un algorithme évolutionnaire particulier dont les composants ont été spécifiquement définis pour ce problème. Nous avons montré, à travers une étude comparative avec d'autres approches de modélisation dirigées par les données, menée sur deux cas d'études de bassins versant caribéens, que l'approche AV2D est particulièrement bien adaptée à leur contexte. Nous étudions par la suite les bénéfices offerts par les approches de modélisation hydrologiques modulaires dirigées par les données, en définissant un procédé de division en sous-processus prenant en compte les caractéristiques paniculières des bassins versants auxquels nous nous intéressons. Nou avons proposé une extension des travaux précédents à travers la définition d'une approche de modélisation modulaire M2D: Spatial Modular Data Driven, consistant à considérer des sous-processus en divisant l'ensemble des exemples à classifier en sous-ensembles correspondant à des comportements hydrologiques homogènes. Nous avons montré à travers une étude comparative avec d autres approches dU'igées par les données mises en oeuvre sur les mêmes sous-ensembles de données que celte approche permet d améliorer les résultats de prédiction particulièrement à coun Lenne. Nous avons enfin proposé la modélisation d un outil de pi
The work presented in this thesis is in the area of data-driven hydrological modeling approaches. We particularly investigared their application on the difficult problem of flash flood phenomena typically observed in Caribbean watersheds. By considering the problem of flood prediction as a combinatorial optimization problem, we propose to use the notion of Oleraheuristics, through evolutionary algorithms, especially for their capacity ta visit effjciently large search space and to provide good solutions in reasonable execution times. We proposed the hydrological prediction approach AV2D: Aggregate Variable Data Driven which central concept is the notion of aggregate variable. The underlying idea of this [concept is to consider the predictive power of new variables defined as the results of statistical functions, called aggregation functions, computed on data corresponding ta time periods before an event ta predict. These variables are characterized by sets of parameters corresponding ta their specifications. We introduced hydro-meteorological aggregate variables allowing ta address the classification problem of hydrological events. We showed through a comparative study on two typical caribbean watersheds, using several common data driven modelling techniques that the AV2D approach is panicul.rly weil fitted ta the studied context. We also study the benefits offered by modulaI' approaches through the definition of the SM2D: Spatial Modular DataDriven approach, consisting in considering sub-processes partly defined by spatial criteria. We showed that the results obtained by the AV2D on these sub-processes allows to increase the performances particularly for short term prediction. Finally we proposed the modelization of a generic control tool for hydro-meteorological prediction systems, H2FCT: Hydro-meteorological Flood Forecasting Control 1'001

http://www.theses.fr/2013AGUY0673/document

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
Experimentally Assisted Molecular Modelling (EAMM) is an original approach for predicting the structure of organic micro-crystals and deducing their habit in the presence of various solvents and additives. It is applied here in the case of n-octylamino-nitrobenzoxadiazole (nOA-NBD), a fluorescent compound. This general approach is first of all described and validated by its blind application to three known and closely-related crystals. Then, the whole process is applied to predict the molecular crystal generated by n-octylamino-NBD, including the molecule conformation, its structure (cell parameters, molecular packing, X-ray powder diagrams) and its theoretical plus actual habits in the presence of a solvent (p-xylene) and two additives (acetic acid and n-dodecane). The conformation of the predicted molecule is validated by comparison with two similar molecules embedded in observable crystals. Then, the choice between two proposed structures (with the same energy and two equiprobable packings) is based on the comparison between experimental and re-computed X-ray powder diffraction diagrams, and also on the interpretation of an actual TEM image in the light of the proposed cell parameters. This choice is confirmed by the comparison between the vapour-grown face development (proposed by the BFDH or the attachment energy models) and the actual face development in a pure solvent. Finally, the actual habit deduced from comparing the crystal attachment energy with the adsorption energy of solvent or additive molecules is validated by SEM images of NBD micro-crystals in presence of the solvent alone or in presence of both additives. In conclusion, the EAMM approach appears to be a decisive tool for quickly simulating structural and habit properties of the molecular crystals, accessible or not by experimentation. Thus, a numerical selection of molecules becomes possible in view of deriving organic materials with predetermined properties, such as the fluorescence properties of the compound considered in the present study.
ISSN: 0022-0248

hal-00857894
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00857894
DOI : 10.1016/j.jcrysgro.2011.07.035

Résumé : La forte variabilité de la vitesse du vent fait que l'énergie produite par un parc éolien n'est pas constante dans le temps. Le gestionnaire ne peut donc pas dimensionner son réseau électrique en prenant intégralement ce type de production en compte. L' une des solutions préconisées pour permettre le développement de l' éolien et son intégration avec une plus grande sureté aux réseaux, est de développer et d'améliorer les outils de prévisions. Le travail de thèse consiste à améliorer les performances d'un outil de prédiction basé sur les réseaux de neurones bayesiens, permettant la prédiction de la puissance à très court terme . Le prédicteur fonctionne notamment par J'ajustement de paramètres, certain se détermine « automatiquement » via le mécanisme des réseaux de neurones bayesiens d' autres, que nous nommerons paramètres temporels, sont à l' appréciation de l'utilisateur. Le travail mené consiste à établir un protocole pour la fixation de ces paramètres tout en améliorant les performances du prédicteur . Nous avons donc décidé de conditionner leurs valeurs en fonction de la variabilité des séquences de puissance précédent l'instant de prévision. Tout d'abord nous avons classifié des séquences de puissance en fonction de leurs coefficients de variation en appliquant la méthode des C-moyennes floues. Puis, chaque classe formée a été testée sur plusieurs valeurs de paramètres, les valeurs associées aux meilleures prédictions ont été retenues. Enfin, ces résultats couplés au formalisme des Chaines de Markov, par le biais de la matrice de transition , ont perm is d'obtenir des taux d'amélioration par rapport à la persistance allant de 7,73 à 23,22 % selon l'horizon de prédiction considéré
The high variability of the wind speed has for conse quences that the energy produced by a wind farm is not constant over time. Therefore, the manager can't size the electrical network by takin g into account this type of production. One solution advocated for the development of wind energy and its integrati on with greater security at network, is to develop and improve fore casting tools. The thesi s objective is to improve the performance of a predi ction tool based on Bayesian neural networks, allowing the predi ction of wind power for short timescales. The predictor works, in part icular by the adjustment of parameters, sorne is determined "automatically" through the mechan ism of neural networks Bayesian other , which we cali temporal parameters are at the discretion of the user. The work involves establishing a protocol for the determination of these parameters and improving the performance of the predictor. So, we decided to condition their values depending on the sequence variability of wind power previous the moment of the forecast. First we classified sequences of power according to their coefficients of variation using the method of fuzzy C-means. Then, each formed class was tested for several parameters values, the values associated with the best predictions were selected. Finally , these result s coupled with the formalism of Markov chains , through the transition matrix allowed to obtain rates of improvement over the persistence ranging from 7.73 to 23.22 % depending on the prediction horizon considered

http://www.theses.fr/2013AGUY0679/document

Éditeur(s) : American Geophysical Union
Résumé : We present four companion digital models of the age, age uncertainty, spreading rates, and spreading asymmetries of the world's ocean basins as geographic and Mercator grids with 2 arc min resolution. The grids include data from all the major ocean basins as well as detailed reconstructions of back-arc basins. The age, spreading rate, and asymmetry at each grid node are determined by linear interpolation between adjacent seafloor isochrons in the direction of spreading. Ages for ocean floor between the oldest identified magnetic anomalies and continental crust are interpolated by geological estimates of the ages of passive continental margin segments. The age uncertainties for grid cells coinciding with marine magnetic anomaly identifications, observed or rotated to their conjugate ridge flanks, are based on the difference between gridded age and observed age. The uncertainties are also a function of the distance of a given grid cell to the nearest age observation and the proximity to fracture zones or other age discontinuities. Asymmetries in crustal accretion appear to be frequently related to asthenospheric flow from mantle plumes to spreading ridges, resulting in ridge jumps toward hot spots. We also use the new age grid to compute global residual basement depth grids from the difference between observed oceanic basement depth and predicted depth using three alternative age-depth relationships. The new set of grids helps to investigate prominent negative depth anomalies, which may be alternatively related to subducted slab material descending in the mantle or to asthenospheric flow. A combination of our digital grids and the associated relative and absolute plate motion model with seismic tomography and mantle convection model outputs represents a valuable set of tools to investigate geodynamic problems.
Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems - G3 (1525-2027) (American Geophysical Union), 2008-04 , Vol. 9 , P. NIL_18-NIL_36

Droits : 2008 American Geophysical Union
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2008/publication-3900.pdf
DOI:10.1029/2007GC001743
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/3900/

Éditeur(s) : Agrocampus-ouest
Résumé : Quantitative evaluations of management measure impact on resource and fleet viability are required to provide diagnostics and feed decision process. Fisheries are complex systems where numerous dynamics interact at various spatial and temporal scales. This complexity and the difficulty to observe marine systems are responsible for the high uncertainty surrounding fishery functioning that makes it hard to identify adequate management measures. The increasing consideration of uncertainties in diagnostics argues in favor of robust management measures rather than optimal management measures. Identifying robust management measures requires the development of models that account for complexity and uncertainty in the description and prediction of management impact as well as the identification of synthetic descriptors (indicators) of the state and dynamic of the system. The aim of this work is to propose generic methodologies for developing such tools. The methodological developments are applied to the pelagic fishery of the bay of Biscay. This fishery mainly focused on anchovy and was highly impacted by fishing ban on this species since 2005. Causes for anchovy drop in biomass either environmental or due to fishing are poorly understood, making management decision much harder in a critical environmental and economic context. The adequacy of traditional management using TAC is questioned and additional spatial management measures are proposed.
Des évaluations quantitatives de l’impact de mesures de gestion sur les ressources et la viabilité des flottilles sont nécessaires pour établir des diagnostics et pour fournir des éléments d’orientation pour la gestion des pêcheries. Les pêcheries sont des systèmes complexes mettant en œuvre de nombreuses dynamiques à des échelles de temps et d’espace très variables et interagissant très fortement entre elles. Cette complexité et la difficulté d’observer les systèmes marins, conduit à une grande incertitude sur leur fonctionnement qui rend difficile la détermination des mesures de gestion adaptées. La reconnaissance de ces incertitudes, plaide de plus en plus en faveur d’une gestion robuste plutôt qu’optimale. Déterminer la robustesse des mesures de gestion nécessite le développement de modèles de description et de prédiction capable d’intégrer la complexité et l’incertitude du système, ainsi que d’outils de description synthétiques (indicateurs) de l’état et de la dynamique de la pêcherie à partir d’observations. L’objectif de ce travail est de proposer des méthodes génériques pour le développement de tels outils. Ces développements méthodologiques sont appliqués à la pêcherie pélagique du golfe de Gascogne. Cette pêcherie ciblant principalement l’anchois a été fortement perturbée par la fermeture de la pêche à cette espèce en 2005. Le déterminisme environnemental et le rôle de la pêche dans le déclin de la population d’anchois sont mal compris ce qui rend difficile la prise de décision dans un contexte économique et écologique critique. La gestion traditionnelle par TAC pourrait s’avérer insuffisante pour permettre l’exploitation durable et des mesures spatialisées sont envisagées en complément.

Droits : 2010 The Author, UEB
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00025/13630/10712.pdf
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00025/13630/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Public Library of Science
Résumé : International audience
Local variation in the density of Anopheles mosquitoes and the risk of exposure to bites are essential to explain the spatial and temporal heterogeneities in the transmission of malaria. Vector distribution is driven by environmental factors. Based on variables derived from satellite imagery and meteorological observations, this study aimed to dynamically model and map the densities of Anopheles darlingi in the municipality of Saint-Georges de l’Oyapock (French Guiana). Longitudinal sampling sessions of An. darlingi densities were conducted between September 2012 and October 2014. Landscape and meteorological data were collected and processed to extract a panel of variables that were potentially related to An. darlingi ecology. Based on these data, a robust methodology was formed to estimate a statistical predictive model of the spatial-temporal variations in the densities of An. darlingi in Saint-Georges de l’Oyapock. The final cross-validated model integrated two landscape variables—dense forest surface and built surface—together with four meteorological variables related to rainfall, evapotranspiration, and the minimal and maximal temperatures. Extrapolation of the model allowed the generation of predictive weekly maps of An. darlingi densities at a resolution of 10-m. Our results supported the use of satellite imagery and meteorological data to predict malaria vector densities. Such fine-scale modeling approach might be a useful tool for health authorities to plan control strategies and social communication in a cost-effective, targeted, and timely manner.
ISSN: 1932-6203

hal-01383486
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01383486
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01383486/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01383486/file/Adde_et_al_PlosONE_2016.pdf
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0164685

Résumé : After a period of rapid development of the sites (an increase in both reared surface area and production), tropical shrimp aquaculture is currently being faced with critical problems due to economical and ecological constraints. In many countries with favourable conditions for shrimp aquaculture such as indonesia or Vietnam, sites are often badly selected and/or over-exploited. This conducts to sorne extent to decreases or collapses in the production due to the difficulty in predicting the maximum production capacity of the sites. Furthermore, it appears that production sustainability depends on many factors among which socio-economy and ecolo gy are of prime importance. The STD3 project titled « Assessment of tropical shrimp aquaculture impact on the environment in tropical countries using hydrobiology, ecology and remote sensing as helping tools for diagnosis )) was initiated in 1994, with the aim to study the sustainability of marine shrimp aquaculture in tropical areas, main! y Indonesia and Vietnam, through the following tasks: (i) improve site selection and study the impact of aquaculture on marine environments presenting a variable sensitivity to organic sewage, (ii) analyse the socio-economical aspects and profitability of the aquaculture industry and of common resources (iii) use remote sensing and geographical data bases for diagnosis and monitoring of site degradation (iv) reinforce the capacity of Asian scientists through training. Severa! aquaculture sites have been investigated in the Lampung region (South Sumatra, Indonesia), the Mekong delta (Vietnam) and on the West coast of New-Caledonia, providing a large range of typical ecosystems encountered in Asia and in the Pacifie, from coralline sites to coastal plains with mangrove and deltaic areas. The study concerned the spatial structure and seasonal influence of these ecosystems, the temporal variation during the course of the project (3 years) and the relation between the ecological structure and farm productions. Remote sensing provides a synoptic vision over large land expanses. Severa! scenes were processed for landuse mapping using conventional classification techniques. Concerning water quality assessment, a general relation for the Java sea was found between image and field data in terms of total suspended matter. Applying this relation to a new site in Sumatra has provided an initial approach to water type and, together with land use mapping, a preliminary assessment of the suitability of the area to shrimp aquaculture development. Socio-economic research has been focused on the identification ofneeds for collective action, including public policy, in the perspective of shrimp farming sustainability. The main concern is in the regulation of shrimp farming intensification and extensification at the scale of coastal ecosystemic entities in a common property resource management perspective. The common considered here is coastal water quality. Comparing the local development profiles and the institutional grounds for the design and implementation of collective management rules shows that variables such as land tenure system, farm owner socio-economic profile, social homogeneity or heterogeneity of the farmers are key factors to analyse the potential for sustainability. The defmition of water quality and the possible means to ensure its collective management are discussed. The main conclusion is that the economie incentives to farming development are strong but there is no significant difference among traditional, semi-intensive and intensive systems in terms of economie efficiency or wealth distribution. The description of the functioning of the different kinds of ecosystems make it possible to give an advice concerning the positioning of the activity inside the ecosystem, and furthermore to have a reference state in order to determine the impact of the activity on the coastal environnement. This impact can be summarized as an increase in the concentration of total suspended matt€?r, of particulate organic matter and of sulfate reducing bacterias. This organic ma~.er is either issued from rearing activities or from telluric origine, due to mangrove eradication when building the ponds. An evaluation of the relationship existing between productivity and characteristics of each ecosystem bas been conducted by correlating ecological indicators data (concentration of total suspended matter, particulate organic matter, chlorophyll, percentage of pheopigments in total pigments and cyanobacteria and sulfatereducing bacteria in water and sediments) with the average production of the farms. This comparison lead to the compilation of a scale of observed production integrating the range of these environmental parameters with shrimp production levels, bound to facilitate the positioning of shrimp farming in relation with the confmement leve! of each ecosystem. Lastly, ali geographie data originated from the various compartments of the study have been geo-referenced and loaded into a geographical information system. This allows to display any query made on spatial variables and their related statistical data, including the ir variations over the last few years and to reveal patterns and phenomena otherwise not obvious.
Le programme mis en oeuvre par la DRV (Paris, CREMA-L'Houmeau, DELIAO Brest, COP Tahiti, GIE/RA Nouvelle Calédonie), dans le cadre d'un projet européen STD3 «(Sciences et Technique au Service du Développement», en collaboration avec l'Université de Montpellier II, l'Ecole Nationale d'Agronomie de Rennes, l'ITC (Hollande), l'Institut Océanographique de Nha Trang (Vietnam), le BADC de Jepara et le BPPT de Jakarta (Indonésie), avait pour but la mise au point de méthodes permettant d'améliorer la sélection des sites ainsi que le suivi du développement et de l'impact de l'aquaculture des crevettes Péneides en milieu tropical pour éviter la surexploitation. Quatre axes de recherche ont été défmis : a) identifier la nature et quantifier les rejets de déchets issus de ce type d'aquaculture, b) définir les caractéristiques écologiques des écosystèmes susceptibles d'accueillir l'activité aquacole et suivre leur évolution sous l'influence des rejets, c) déterminer l'influence de la gestion des fermes et des ressources (aspects économiques) sur les performances de productivité, d) déterminer la capacité de la télédétection comme outil de diagnostic d'impact à l'échelle de la région, e) mener un programme de formation d'étudiants et jeunes chercheurs Vietnamiens et Indonésiens.

Droits : 1998 Ifremer
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00132/24357/22357.pdf
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00132/24357/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Optical Society of America
Résumé : International audience
We present a theoretical simulation of the sarcomeric SHG intensity pattern (SHG-IP) that takes into account myofibrillar misalignment that is experimentally observed in SHG images of proteolysed muscles. The model predicts that myofibrillar displacement results in the conversion from one peak (1P) to two peaks (2P) sarcomeric SHG-IP in agreement with experimental results. This study suggests that sarcomeric SHG-IP is a powerful tool for mapping spatial myofibrillar displacement and its related excitation-contraction disruption that could occur during muscle physiological adaptation and disease.
ISSN: 1094-4087

hal-00820260
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00820260
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00820260/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00820260/file/Studysur the_effect-accepted.pdf
DOI : 10.1364/OE.21.011404

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
Forecasting of sea-state characteristics, with warning time of a few hours, appears a necessity in Operational Oceanography. linking sophisticated marine monitoring systems with forecasting modeling tools. In this paper, instead of using conventional numerical models, a Takagi-Sugeno-rule-based Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) was developed aiming at forecasting wave parameters based on the wind speed and direction, and the lagged-wave characteristics. Initial and final antecedent fuzzy membership functions were identified using the subtractive clustering method. The model was applied on the wind and wave dataset recorded in years 2000-2006 by an oceanographic buoy deployed in the Aegean Sea. The model showed perfect fit for the training period (2000-2005; 12,274 data points), and expanded its hindcasting ability during 2006 (1044 data points), as the verification part of the series. Model results, for a lead time of 3 h, showed good agreement between the predicted and the observed significant wave height (RMSE=0.216) and zero-up-crossing period (RMSE=0.315). According to other model performance criteria, the fuzzy model slightly underpredicted both wave characteristics (the linear regression slope was 0.911 for wave height and 0.788 for wave period), and reduced its forecasting ability at higher prediction intervals (+6 to + 12 h). Overall, model results illustrated that the developed FIS could serve as a valuable tool for the operational prediction of wave characteristics in Northern Aegean Sea, through the utilization of the POSEIDON network.
ISSN: 0029-8018

hal-00456020
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00456020
DOI : 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2009.08.016

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : Geological storage of CO2 is one of diverse technologies being explored to reduce atmospheric carbon fromindustrial processes (i.e. fossil fuel combustion). One of the specific features of CO2 injection is the possibility ofgeochemical reactions (dissolution – precipitation) between mobile reactive brine (e.g. formation water enrichedin CO2) and the host rock during the spatial and temporal evolution of CO2. That leads to modifications in thepore structure, which in turn change the flow dynamics of the reservoir (e.g. the permeability k). Then, thesesstructural modifications can largely control the injectivity, so that the pressure field in the reservoir and also theCO2 propagation. Accordingly, it is crucial to explore the changes in the reservoir properties (e.g. structural andhydrodynamic) induced during a CO2 injection and specially the relationships between them (e.g. k or reactivesurface-Sr versus porosity-φ , k versus rock heterogeneity), for developing predictive modelling tools of thetransport and reaction processes occurring during a CO2 injection and reliable risk assessment. In the case ofcarbonate rocks, the application of the predictive models of transport and reaction is still challenging, because oftheir high heterogeneity so that the incertitude in the reaction kinetics of carbonate minerals.From this perspective, we realized brine-enriched in CO2 percolation experiments through carbonate rocksamples in thermodynamic conditions expected during CO2 injection in deep reservoirs (T = 100°C et P =12MPa). The permeability changes k(t) is monitored during the experiments and the porosity variationφ (t) iscalculated from chemical analyses of the sampled outlet fluids, using ICP-EAS. The pore structure modificationsare investigated from high resolution X ray micro tomography images acquired from the synchrotron ofGrenoble (ESRF). Depending to the dissolution regime, controlled by the reservoir rock fabric and the chemicalcomposition of the brine (e.g. PCO2), we observed that a modification of pore structure can either improve(atypical result in dissolution context) or impair the value of the permeability k.
Le stockage géologique du CO2 est l’une des diverses technologies étant explorées afin deréduire les émissions de carbone atmosphérique des processus industriels (i.e. combustion del’énergie fossile). L’une des spécifiques caractéristiques de l’injection du CO2 en profondeurreste la possibilité de réactions géochimiques (dissolution-précipitation) entre la saumureréactive mobile (e.g. eau de formation enrichie en CO2) et la roche encaissante durantl’évolution spatiale et temporelle du CO2, conduisant à des modifications dans la structure despores et par conséquent dans les propriétés d’écoulement du réservoir (e.g. la perméabilité k).Donc, ces changements structuraux peuvent largement contrôler l’injectivité, ainsi que lechamp de pression dans le réservoir et aussi la propagation du CO2. Il demeure ainsi cruciald’explorer les changement dans les propriétés de réservoirs (e.g. structurales ethydrodynamiques) induits durant une injection de CO2 et explicitement les relations existantesentre eux (e.g. k ou surface réactive-Sr versus porosité-φ , k versus hétérogénéité de la roche),afin de développer des outils de modélisation prédictive des processus de transport etréactionnels se produisant durant une injection de CO2 et d’évaluer de façon fiable les risques.Dans le cas des réservoirs carbonatés, l’application des modèles prédictifs de transport réactifdemeure toujours un enjeu, car contrainte par la forte hétérogénéité en leur sein ainsi que parl’incertitude dans la cinétique de réactions des minéraux carbonatés dans ce contexte. Danscette optique, nous avons réalisé des expériences de percolation à travers des échantillons deroches carbonatées dans les conditions thermodynamiques de stockage en profondeur (T =100°C et P =12 MPa). L’évolution de la perméabilité k(t) est suivie au cours desexpériences ; et la variation de la porosité φ (t) est calculée à partir des résultats d’analyseschimiques au ICP-AES des fluides de sortie échantillonnés. L’investigation des modificationsapportées à la structure des pores est réalisée par le biais de la Micro-Tomographie hauterésolution à rayon X, acquise au synchrotron de Grenoble (e.g. ESRF).Dépendant du régime de dissolution, contrôlé par la fabrique de la roche réservoir et lacomposition chimique de la saumuré chargée en CO2 (e.g. PCO2 engagée), on a observéqu’une modification de la structure de la roche peut soit améliorer soit détériorer (résultatatypique en contexte de dissolution) la valeur de la perméabilité k.
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01142136

tel-01142136
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01142136
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01142136/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01142136/file/thesemangane2013.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD De Gruyter
Résumé : International audience
The data available in the literature concerning wood cutting forces permit to build models or to simulate the main wood machining processes (milling, sawing, peeling etc.). This approach contributes to a better understanding of formation of wood surfaces and chips and the data may be helpful to optimize cutting geometry, reduce tool wear, improve tool material, and to size tool-machines. The models may also be useful for industrial application in two ways: (1) providing data to optimise the settings for a given operation (batch approach) and (2) building predictive models that could be the basis of an online control systems for the machining processes (interactive approach). A prerequisite for this is that numerous machining tests on different wood materials are performed based on experiences with different kind of tools and experimental devices. With potential industrial applications in focus, the emphasis of this review was on the wood peeling process, which is a very demanding special case of wood cutting. Though not so many industrial machines are equipped with expensive force sensors, there is a lot of high quality information available about cutting forces which may be useful to improve the scientific or technologic knowledge in wood machining. Alternative parameters, such as vibration or sound measurements, appear to be promising substitutes in the praxis, particularly to feed online control systems of any wood cutting process.
ISSN: 0018-3830

hal-00876003
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00876003
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00876003/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00876003/file/LABOMAP_Holzforschung_2009_denaud.pdf
ENSAM : http://hdl.handle.net/10985/7419

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD De Gruyter
Résumé : COST Action E35 : Fracture mechanics and micromechanics of wood and wood composites with regard to wood machining
The data available in the literature concerning wood cutting forces permits to build models or to simulate the main wood machining processes ( milling, sawing, peeling, etc.). This approach contributes to a better understanding of formation of wood surfaces and chips and the data may be helpful to optimise cutting geometry, reduce tool wear, improve tool material, and to size tool-machines. The models may also be useful for industrial application in two ways: ( 1) providing data to optimise the settings for a given operation ( batch approach), and ( 2) building predictive models that could be the basis of an online control system for the machining processes ( interactive approach). A prerequisite for this is that numerous machining tests on different wood materials are performed based on experiences with different kind of tools and experimental devices. With a focus on potential industrial applications, the emphasis of this review was on the wood peeling process, which is a very demanding special case of wood cutting. Although not so many industrial machines are equipped with expensive force sensors, there is a lot of high quality information available about cutting forces which may be useful to improve the scientific or technological knowledge in wood machining. Alternative parameters, such as vibration or sound measurements, appear to be promising substitutes in the praxis, particularly to feed online control systems of any wood cutting process.
ISSN: 0018-3830

hal-01032121
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01032121
DOI : 10.1515/HF.2009.014

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD IEEE
Résumé : International audience
The main challenge in prostate cancer radiotherapy is to deliver the prescribed dose to the clinical target while minimizing the dose to the neighboring organs at risk and thus avoiding subsequent toxicity-related events. With the aim of improving toxicity prediction following prostate cancer radiotherapy, the goal of our work is to propose a new predictive variable computed with independent component analysis to predict late rectal toxicity, and to compare its performance to other models (logistic regression, normal tissue complication probability model and recent principal component analysis approach). Clinical data and dose-volume histograms were collected from 216 patients having received 3D conformal radiation for prostate cancer with at least two years of follow-up. Independent component analysis was trained to predict the risk of 3-year rectal bleeding Grade extgreater= 2. The performance of all the models was assessed by computing the area under the receiving operating characteristic curve. Clinical parameters combined with the new variable were found to be predictors of rectal bleeding. The mean area under the receiving operating curve for our proposed approach was 0:75. The AUC values for the logistic regression, the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman model and the recent principal component analysis approach were 0:62, 0:53 and 0:62, respectively. Our proposed new variable may be an useful new tool in predicting late rectal toxicity. It appears as a strong predictive variable to improve classical models
2015 37th annual international conference of the IEEE Engineering in Medicine and Biology Society
Milan, Italy

hal-01304750
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01304750

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD International Association for Energy Economics
Résumé : International audience
In this paper we propose to determinate and to test a set ofstatistical parameters (20)to estimate the predictability of the global horizontal irradiation time series and thereby propose a new prospective tool indicating the expected error regardlessthe forecasting methodsa modeller can possibly implement. The mean absolute log return, which is a tool usually used in econometry, proves to be a very good estimator. Some examples of the use of this tool are exposed, showing the interest of this statistical parameter in concrete cases of predictions or optimizations.
ISSN: 0195-6574

hal-01180041
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01180041
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01180041/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01180041/file/discriminent_param.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : International audience
Climatic niche conservatism, the tendency of species-climate associations to remain unchanged across space and time, is pivotal for forecasting the spread of invasive species and biodiversity changes. Indeed, it represents one of the key assumptions underlying species distribution models (SDMs), the main tool currently available for predicting range shifts of species. However, to date, no comprehensive assessment of niche conservatism is available for the marine realm. We use the invasion by Indo-Pacific tropical fishes into the Mediterranean Sea, the world's most invaded marine basin, to examine the conservatism of the climatic niche. We show that tropical invaders may spread far beyond their native niches and that SDMs do not predict their new distributions better than null models. Our results suggest that SDMs may underestimate the potential spread of invasive species and call for prudence in employing these models in order to forecast species invasion and their response to environmental change.
ISSN: 1461-023X

hal-01136126
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01136126
DOI : 10.1111/ele.12401

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : National audience
Endometriosis is a common gynecological estrogen-dependent disorder, affecting more than 10 % of women in reproductive age. This disease results in chronic pelvic pain and infertility and is characterized by the presence of functional endometrial tissue outside of uterine cavity. To date, the diagnosis of endometriosis takes many years because of the lack of non-invasive diagnostic tools. Interestingly, "Omics" technologies demonstrated their relevance for the search, identification and characterization of potential disease biomarkers with significant achievements in many areas in the field of human health. Use a panel of Omics approaches seems to be a good way to improve our knowledge about endometriosis. Despite several studies on the subject, the potential biomarkers obtained are still not used in the clinical practice, as it calls for large-scale validation. Combined approaches based on strong interdisciplinary collaborations should improve our knowledge of endometriosis, and allow the identification of specific predictive markers, thus leading to the development of therapeutic solutions for a non-invasive and early diagnosis of this debilitating disease. Copyright © 2017 John Libbey Eurotext.
Medecine Therapeutique Medecine de la Reproduction, Gynecologie et Endocrinologie

hal-01467551
https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01467551
DOI : 10.1684/mte.2016.0632

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
The development of predictive tools has been commonly utilized as the most effective manner to prevent illnesses thatstrike suddenly. Within this context, investigations linking fine human motor control with brain stroke risk factors areconsidered to have a high potential but they are still in an early stage of research. The present paper analysesneuromuscular features of oscillatory movements based on the Omega-Lognormal model of the Kinematic Theory. On adatabase of oscillatory movements from 120 subjects, we demonstrate that the proposed features differ significantlybetween subjects with and without brain stroke risk factors. This promising result motivates the development ofpredictive tools based on the Omega-Lognormal model.
17th Biennial Conference of the International Graphonomics Society
Pointe-à-Pitre, Guadeloupe

hal-01165773
https://hal.univ-antilles.fr/hal-01165773
https://hal.univ-antilles.fr/hal-01165773/document
https://hal.univ-antilles.fr/hal-01165773/file/IGS_2015_submission_9.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
Transport of liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons through focused fluid flow systems is a widespread process in continental margins and sedimentary basins, which is gaining increased attention in the assessment of geohazards, environment conservation, and securing fossil energy resources. Studying the abundance, distribution and drivers for this process is crucial for understanding its role in 1) the dynamics of gas hydrate accumulation and destabilization, 2) submarine slope stability and related tsunamis, 3) the plethora of chemosynthetic benthic ecosystems that develop in deep seep sites, and 4) the input of greenhouse gases (e.g. methane) into the ocean/atmosphere system, which may influence the atmospheric carbon budget and Earth's paleo- and present climate. New ocean exploration tools provide ever more data and improve our understanding of these systems. However, the subject still suffers from a lack of interdisciplinary knowledge dissemination. The ongoing international debate about the timing and the processes that control fluid expulsion in sedimentary basins is fuelled by their implications for structural and petroleum geology. Because fluids expelled at cold seeps originate at depth they represent open windows into the underlying petroleum systems and are valuable indicators for the reservoir systems. They may also help in deciphering past and predicting future climate change because worldwide release of large amounts of fluids may have an impact on the chemistry of the ocean and atmosphere.
ISSN: 0025-3227

hal-00772472
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00772472
DOI : 10.1016/j.margeo.2012.10.012