Willingness of south Florida fruit growers to adopt genetically modified papaya : an ex-ante evaluation ; Volonté des agriculteurs du sud de la Floride d'adopter la papaye génétiquement modifié (carica papaya) : une évaluation antériere Auteur(s) : Evans, edward Année de publication : Loading the player... Éditeur(s) : INRA : Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique Université des Antilles. Service commun de la documentation University of Florida Extrait de : 52e congrès annuel de la Société caribéenne des plantes alimentaires / 52nd annual meeting of the Caribbean food crops society (CFCS), du 10 au 16 juillet 2016. INRA, CFCS Description : Papaya ringspot virus (PRSV) has been a major factor inhibiting the expansion of papaya production in South Florida, USA. The University of Florida has developed a transgenic papaya line X17-2, which is tolerant to PRSV and is suitable for commercial production. The expected yield improvement can be as high as 380%. In spite of the yield potential, some fruit growers may be skeptical about adopting this improved GM cultivars for a variety of reasons. Consequently, a probit model with data from a survey of likely producers was used to identify those factors that may influence the adoption of the new technology. The results indicate that education level, farm size, and income derived from agriculture were among the factors likely to increase adoption of the technology. The findings suggest that a targeted education program will go a far way in increasing rate of adoption of the technology. Le virus de tache annulaire de papaye (PRSV) a été un facteur important empêchant l'expansion de la production de papaye en Floride du sud, Etats-Unis. L'université de la Floride a développé une ligne transgénique X17-2 de papaye, qui est tolérante à PRSV et convient à la production commerciale. L'amélioration prévue de rendement peut être aussi haute que 380%. Malgré le potentiel de rendement, quelques arboriculteurs peuvent être sceptiques au sujet d'adopter ceci les cultivars améliorés de GM pour des raisons diverses. En conséquence, un modèle de probit avec des données d'une enquête des producteurs probables a été employé pour identifier ces facteurs qui peuvent influencer l'adoption de la nouvelle technologie. Les résultats indiquent que le niveau d'éducation, la taille de ferme, et le revenu dérivé de l'agriculture étaient parmi les facteurs vraisemblablement pour augmenter l'adoption de la technologie. Les résultats suggèrent qu'un programme éducatif visé aille une manière lointaine dans le taux croissant d'adoption de la technologie. Siècle(s) traité(s) : 21 Droits : CC-BY-NC-ND - Attribution - Pas d'utilisation commerciale - Pas de modification Permalien : http://www.manioc.org/fichiers/V16254 V16254 | Partager |
Cross-shelf structure of coastal upwelling : a two - dimensional extension of Ekman's theory and a mechanism for inner shelf upwelling shut down Auteur(s) : Estrade, Philippe Marchesiello, P Colin De Verdiere, A Roy, C Éditeur(s) : Yale University Résumé : Sea-surface temperature images of the coastal upwelling regions off Northwest Africa show that the core of upwelling is sometimes located far from the coast. This has been documented in three regions that share a common feature, namely a wide and shallow continental shelf. This upwelling feature plays a key role in the ecology of the Canary Current System. It creates an innerfront which provides retention for biological material, e.g. fish eggs and larvae, in the highly productive nearshore environment. An analytical model has been developed based on a two dimensional extension of Ekman's solution. The linear and steady response of a homogeneous ocean forced by an upwelling-favorable wind provides a mechanism for the upwelling separation from the coast. The merging of the surface and bottom Ekman layers induces a very weak cross-shore circulation and a "kinematic barrier" for the Ekman transport divergence. In the case of an alongshore wind, the barrier is located near the isobath h ≈ 0.4D, where D is the thickness of Ekman layers. This yields an upwelling cell which is essentially concentrated in the region 0.5D < h < 1.25D, with upwelling occurring preferentially near the isobath h ≈ 0.6D. It turns out that the cross-shore width of upwelling scales with D/S, the ratio of Ekman depth to bottom topographic slope. The application of this solution to real bathymetric profiles rationalizes, not only the offshore upwelling observations in Northwest Africa, but also the influence of topography on the cross-shelf structure of a wind-driven coastal upwelling. The model also quantifies the effect of the cross-shore wind component showing how it drives the nearshore pressure gradient adjustment and how it affects the upwelling. A linear numerical experiment reproduces the theoretical steady solution, thereby allowing investigation of the transient regime. Relaxation of the hypothesis in the numerical model validates the linear assumption of the theory and then allows investigation of the sensitivity to friction parameterizations and the influence of stratification. The latter leads to an "oscillation" of the upwelling cell with seaward migration driven by outcropping and homogeneization of the water column, and, coastal incursion driven by a "boundary layers splitting" process caused by shoreward advection of the isopycnal dome and stratification of the inner shelf. Journal of Marine Research (Yale University), 2008-09 , Vol. 66 , N. 5 , P. 589-616 Droits : 2008 Yale University http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2008/publication-6334.pdf DOI:10.1357/002224008787536790 http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/6334/ | Partager |
Waterborne nickel bioaccumulation in Gammarus pulex: Comparison of mechanistic models and influence of water cationic composition Auteur(s) : Lebrun, Jeremie D. Perret, Marine Uher, Emmanuelle Tusseau-vuillemin, Marie-helene Gourlay-france, Catherine Éditeur(s) : Elsevier Science Bv Résumé : The biodynamic and saturation models offer promising lines of enquiry to predict the bioaccumulation of metals by aquatic organisms. However, in order to construct these models, the accumulation strategies have to be defined for each metal/organism couple in controlled conditions. This study aims at modelling the waterborne bioaccumulation of Ni and the influence of the water's geochemical properties on this process in a crustacean that is widely distributed in Europe, Gammarus pulex. In the laboratory, G. pulex was exposed to several Ni concentrations (from 0.001 to 100 mg L(-1)) in aquatic microcosms. Our results show that G. pulex is very tolerant to Ni (LC50(48 h) = 477 mg L(-1) Ni). Time course experiments enabled the construction of a biodynamic model by determining the uptake (k(u)) and elimination (k(e)) rate constants. When the exposure concentration exceeded 1 mg L(-1) Ni, the metal uptake reached a maximum due to a limited number of binding sites for Ni. Therefore, the organism's maximal capacity to accumulate the metal (B(max)) and the half-saturation constant (K) were determined to establish the saturation model. We showed that the two models are comparable for the lowest exposure concentrations (<1 mg L(-1) Ni), with k(u)/k(e) = B(max)/K. Then, the bioaccumulation of Ni was recorded in waters exhibiting various concentrations of three major ions (Na(+), Mg(2+) and Ca(2+)). Only Ca had an inhibitory effect on the Ni uptake. This study reports for the first time the bioaccumulation of Ni in G. pulex. Because of its high tolerance to Ni and its high capacity to accumulate this metal, this crustacean could be used as an indicator of Ni bioavailability in freshwaters. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Aquatic Toxicology (0166-445X) (Elsevier Science Bv), 2011-08 , Vol. 104 , N. 3-4 , P. 161-167 Droits : 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00041/15217/18005.pdf DOI:10.1016/j.aquatox.2011.04.011 http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00041/15217/ | Partager Voir aussi Biodynamic kinetics Saturation model Gammarid Bioavailability Water chemistry Aquatic microcosms Télécharger |
The significant contribution of FADs to Solomon Taiyo Limited's fishing operations Auteur(s) : Sibisopere, M Éditeur(s) : Pêche thonière et dispositifs de concentration de poissons, Caribbean-Martinique, 15-19 Oct 1999 Résumé : From 1972, when Solomon Taiyo Limited (stl) started a pole-and-line fishing operation, to 1980, stl vessels had been catching tuna almost exclusively from surface free-swimming schools. In 1981, a fad programme group purse-seining fishing operation, using the Filipino "payao" model, was put in place. Results were excellent and STL vessels quickly adapted their fishing methods to make the best use of fads. STL slightly modified the original payao design to better suit its own needs and nowadays, about 90% of the group purse seine catch, i.e. 5,800 t annually, and around 60-70% of the pole-and-line catch, i.e. about 15,000 t annually, come from fad fishing. fads bring benefits not only to stl but also to the rural communities of the region. For stl, it allows savings on the operational costs, especially those of pole-and-line fishing operations, reduction of searching time and a better regularity of fish landings. For the rural communities, it gives better returns to bait-ground owners through royalties paid by stl for their baitfishing boats and it allows local fishing communities (known as canoe-fishermen) to increase their catches using fishing methods (artisanal) such as trolling and midwater handlines set around fads. This provides fish for family consumption and a source of income from fish sold. Overall, the importance of fads to stl's fishing operation, and therefore to the local economy as a whole, is high, although no precise value can be attached to it. Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00042/15307/12643.pdf http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00042/15307/ | Partager |
Organisation géographique des populations de poissons marins Auteur(s) : Petitgas, Pierre Résumé : The management of marine fish stocks has stayed non-spatial, considering spatial distributions and their consequences on demography as implicit. But the impacts of climate change and the anthropisation of habitats now require to consider spatial procedures explicitly. The work presented here starts with the question of evaluating population abundance, which requires the modelling of spatial distributions (section 1). Then an ecological understanding of the multi-scale nature of distributions is investigated (section 2). Last, we study how demographic population dynamics depends on the spatial organisation of life cycles (section 3). In this work, the approach has been to combine data acquisition at sea with statistical characterisation and modelling. The application of geostatistics to fisheries survey data provided a solution to abundance evaluation and mapping for many different survey designs. A variety of models were implemented (stationary, non-stationary, non-linear, multivariate, spatio-temporal), depending on the statistical characteristics of the data and the problem posed. Sampling bias were identified by combining different survey methods. New procedures for assessing stocks based on indicators including spatial ones were developed, which prepared for ecosystem assessments. (...) La gestion des stocks de poissons marins est longtemps restée a-spatiale, considérant implicites les mécanismes d’organisation spatiale qui soutiennent la distribution géographique des ressources et leur dynamique démographique. Mais l’impact du changement climatique et l’anthropisation des habitats nécessitent d’en tenir compte explicitement. Partant de questions d’évaluation qui ont nécessité la modélisation des distributions spatiales (section 1), le déterminisme écologique de ces distributions a ensuite été abordé à différentes échelles (section 2) puis ont été envisagées les conséquences de l’organisation spatiale sur la dynamique démographique des populations (section 3). L’approche scientifique suivie intègre l’acquisition de données à la mer, la caractérisation statistique et la modélisation. L’application de la géostatistique aux données des campagnes halieutiques permet de proposer une solution à l’estimation d’abondance et la cartographie pour une variété de plans d’échantillonnage. Différents modèles sont mis en oeuvre (stationnaires, non-stationnaires, non-linéaires, multivariés, spatio-temporels) en fonction du comportement des données et du problème posé. Des biais d’échantillonnage sont identifiés en combinant différentes méthodes d’échantillonnage. Des procédures nouvelles d’évaluation de stocks à partir d’indicateurs dont des indicateurs spatiaux sont développées, qui préparent à l’évaluation des écosystèmes. (...) Droits : Ifremer, UPMC http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00013/12410/9197.pdf http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00013/12410/ | Partager |
Temporal scaling of groundwater discharge in dual and multicontinuum catchment models Auteur(s) : Russian, Anna Dentz, Marco Le Borgne, Tanguy Carrera, Jesus Jiménez-Martínez, Joaquín Auteurs secondaires : Géosciences Montpellier ; Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG) - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS) - Université de Montpellier (UM) - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDÆA), Barcelona ; Université du Québec Géosciences Rennes (GR) ; Université de Rennes 1 (UR1) - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS) - Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Rennes (OSUR) - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Spanish National Research Council (CSIC) Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union Résumé : International audience This paper presents a multicontinuum approach to model fractal temporal scaling of catchment response in hydrological systems. The temporal scaling of discharge is quantified in frequency domain by the transfer function HðxÞ, which is defined as the ratio between the spectra of catchment response and recharge time series. The transfer function may scale with frequency x as HðxÞ x2b. While the classical linear and Dupuit models predict exponents of b52 and b51, observations indicate scalings with noninteger exponents b. Such behaviors have been described by multifractal models, which, however, often lack a relation to the medium characteristics. We revisit and extend the classical linear Dupuit aquifer models and discuss their physical meanings in the light of the resulting aquifer dynamics. On the basis of these classical models, we derive a multicontinuum approach that provides physical recharge models which are able to explain fractal behaviors with exponents 1=2 < b < 2. Furthermore, this approach allows to link the fractal dynamics of the discharge process to the physical aquifer characteristics as reflected in the distribution of storage time scales. We systematically analyze the catchment responses in the proposed multicontinuum models, and identify and quantify the time scales which characterize the dynamics of the catchment response to recharge. ISSN: 0043-1397 insu-00952537 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00952537 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00952537/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00952537/file/russian.pdf DOI : 10.1002/2013WR014255 | Partager |
Approche empirique de la pecherie d'espadon (Xiphias gladius) dans l'ocean Indien et modelisation des deplacements des poissons dans le paysage oceanique tropical Auteur(s) : Guyomard, David Éditeur(s) : Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Rennes Résumé : Long-line fishing has been growing on the island of La Réunion since the beginning of the 1990s. The target species is the swordfish (Xiphias gladius), fished mainly in the tropical waters surrounding the island between longitudes 45 degree E and 60 degree E, and latitudes 17 degree S and 27 degree S. From 1998 to 2000, a finalised research programme enabled the collection of precise data concerning the lines' positions and the parameters of the fishing efforts: 3,602 nettings were thus informed by the catches (in numbers of individuals caught) and 12 descriptive variables of the effort. In parallel with this collection effort, satellite maps that described the ocean's landscape of this region of the Indian Ocean exploited by La Réunion's fisheries were made available to sailors and scientists. Extractions from these environmental variables were made at the fishing lines' positions, which allowed us to propose 20 variables describing the environmental conditions of swordfish catches applied to the nettings. In an early part of this study, after a descriptive analysis and a first selection of the variables, we used several GAM (Generalised Additive Models) to model the respective effects of effort and environmental variables on the variability of swordfish catches. We thus highlighted the predominance of factors linked to fishermen (fishing effort) on oceanographic factors in the explanation of this variability. Following these results, a summary on the biology and ecology of the swordfish was proposed in order to draw up hypotheses on the characteristics of this species' population in the Indian Ocean. The aspects linked to the individual behaviour and movements of the population were particularly highlighted. In a latter part of this study and in order to complete the empirical approach by an exploratory constructivist approach, we proposed a modelling tool in order to simulate the possible movements of individuals within the oceanic landscape described by the available satellite maps. After reading in the literature about the various forms of modelling the movements of the large pelagics, we developed an original computer modelling architecture of the multi-agent type that made it possible to manipulate in a dynamic way the satellite maps (and derived products), the individual movements of "animats" whose behaviours were based on this environmental information, and agents that clarify the process of long-line fishing in a geographical way. The computer model that was implemented (MUFINS, for MUlti-Fish INdian ocean Simulator) was next used by calibrating the behaviour of the animats on the real data originally from the analysis of commercial catches proposed in the first part, using robust techniques based on fuzzy logic. The results of the simulations were compared, on the one hand, with the large-scale hypotheses of movement proposed in the first part, and, on the other hand, to swordfish catches both real and corrected for the effect of the fishing effort modelled by the GAM models. Even if the results of these simulations in this study do not allow for proposing convincing interpretations of the underlying processes, the MUFINS tool showed its ability to address questions associated with the swordfish's behaviour in the tropical oceanic landscape and to the effects of scale transfers between the individual level and the collective level. We now envisage its use in a more operational framework, as an interface for dialogue between fishermen and scientists with a goal of sustainable management of the resource. La peche palangriere s'est developpee a l'ile de La Reunion depuis le debut des annees 1990. L'espece cible est l'espadon (Xiphias gladius), principalement exploite dans les eaux tropicales autour de l'ile entre les longitudes 45 degree E et 60 degree E, et les latitudes 17 degree S et 27 degree S. De 1998 a 2000, un programme de recherche finalisee a permis de collecter des informations precises concernant les positions des lignes et les parametres de l'effort de peche : 3602 filages sont ainsi renseignes par les captures (en nombre d'individus captures) et 12 variables descriptives de l'effort. En parallele de cet effort de collecte, des cartes satellitales ont pu etre mises a la disposition des marins et des scientifiques, decrivant le paysage oceanique de cette region de l'ocean Indien exploitee par la pecherie reunionnaise. Des extractions de ces variables environnementales ont ete effectuees aux positions des lignes de peche, nous permettant de proposer 20 variables descriptives des conditions environnementales de captures d'espadon appliquees aux filages. Dans une premiere partie de ce travail, apres une analyse descriptive et une premiere selection des variables, on a modelise par plusieurs modeles GAM (Generalized Additive Models) les effets respectifs des variables d'effort et des variables environnementales sur la variabilite des captures d'espadon. On a ainsi mis en evidence la predominance des facteurs lies aux pecheurs (effort de peche) sur les facteurs oceanographiques dans le caractere explicatif de cette variabilite. A la suite de ces resultats, une synthese sur la biologie et l'ecologie de l'espadon a ete proposee afin de degager des hypotheses sur les caracteristiques de la population de cette espece dans l'ocean Indien. Les aspects lies au comportement individuel et aux deplacements de la population ont ete particulierement mis en evidence. Dans une deuxieme partie de ce travail et afin de completer l'approche empirique par une approche constructiviste exploratoire, nous avons propose un outil de modelisation afin de simuler les deplacements possibles d'individus au sein du paysage oceanique decrit par les cartes satellitales disponibles. Apres avoir passe en revue dans la litterature les differentes formes de modelisation des deplacements des grands, pelagiques, nous avons developpe une architecture originale de modelisation informatique de type multi-agents permettant de manipuler de maniere dynamique les cartes satellitales (et les produits derives), les mouvements individuels < d'animats >, dont les comportements sont bases sur cette information environnementale, et des agents qui explicitent le processus de capture palangriere de maniere geographique. Le modele informatique ainsi implemente (MUFINS, pour MUlti-Fish INdian ocean Simulator) a ensuite ete utilise en calibrant les comportements des animats sur les donnees reelles issues de l'analyse des captures commerciales proposee en premiere partie, a partir de techniques robustes basee sur la logique floue. Les resultats des simulations ont ete confrontes d'une part aux hypotheses de deplacement a grande echelle proposees en premiere partie, et d'autre part aux captures d'espadon reelles et corrigees de l'effet de l'effort de peche modelise par les modeles GAM. Meme si les resultats de simulations presentes dans ce travail ne permettent pas de proposer d'interpretations convaincantes des processus sous-jacents, l'outil MUFINS a demontre son aptitude a aborder les questions liees au comportement de l'espadon dans le paysage oceanique tropical et aux effets des transferts d'echelle entre le niveau individuel et le niveau collectif. On envisage desormais son utilisation dans un cadre plus operationnel, comme interface de dialogue entre les pecheurs et les scientifiques a des fins de gestion durable de la ressource. Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2005/these-2592.pdf http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/2592/ | Partager |
Geomechanics to solve geological structure issues: forward, inverse and restoration modeling ; Utilisation de la géomécanique pour résoudre des problèmes liés aux structures géologiques : modélisation directe, inversion et restauration Auteur(s) : Maerten, Frantz Auteurs secondaires : Géosciences Montpellier ; Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG) - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS) - Université de Montpellier (UM) - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) UNIVERSITE MONTPELLIER II SCIENCES ET TECHNIQUES DU LANGUEDOC Jean Chéry Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Résumé : Different applications of linear elasticity in structural geology are presented in this thesis through the development of three types of numerical computer codes. The first one uses forward modeling to study displacement and perturbed stress fields around complexly faulted regions. We show that incorporating inequality constraints, such as static Coulomb friction, enables one to explain the angle of initiation of jogs in extensional relays. Adding heterogeneous material properties and optimizations, such as parallelization on multicore architectures and complexity reduction, admits more complex models. The second type deals with inverse modeling, also called parameter estimation. Linear slip inversion on faults with complex geometry, as well as paleo-stress inversion using a geomechanical approach, are developed. The last type of numerical computer code is dedicated to restoration of complexly folded and faulted structures. It is shown that this technique enables one to check balanced cross-sections, and also to retrieve fault chronology. Finally, we show that this code allows one to smooth noisy 3D interpreted faulted and folded horizons using geomechanics. Différentes applications de l'élasticité linéaire en géologie structurale sont présentées dans cette thèse à travers le développement de trois types de codes numériques. Le premier utilise la modélisation directe pour étudier les déplacements et champs de contraintes autour de zones faillées complexes. On montre que l'ajout de contraintes inégalitaires, telles que la friction de Coulomb, permet d'expliquer l'angle d'initiation des dominos dans les relais extensifs. L'ajout de matériaux hétérogènes et d'optimisations, telles la parallélisation sur processeurs multi-coeurs ainsi que la réduction de complexité des modèles, permettent l'étude de modèles beaucoup plus complexes. Le second type de code numérique utilise la modélisation inverse, aussi appelée estimation de paramètres. L'inversion linéaire de déplacements sur les failles ainsi que la détermination de paléo-contraintes utilisant une approche géomécanique sont développées. Le dernier type de code numérique concerne la restauration de structures complexes plissées et faillées. Il est notamment montré qu'une telle méthode permet de vérifier l'équilibre de coupes géologiques, ainsi que de retrouver la chronologie des failles. Finalement, nous montrons que ce même code permet de lisser des horizons 3D faillés, plissés et bruités en utilisant la géomécanique. https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00537899 tel-00537899 https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00537899 https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00537899/document https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00537899/file/thesemaerten.pdf | Partager |
Disentangling the complexity of infectious diseases: Time is ripe to improve the first-line statistical toolbox for epidemiologists. Auteur(s) : Hanf, Matthieu Guégan, Jean-François Ahmed, Ismaïl Nacher, Mathieu Auteurs secondaires : Centre d'investigation clinique Antilles-Guyane ; Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) - CH Cayenne Epidémiologie des parasitoses et mycoses tropicales ; Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG) - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) Institut des Sciences Chimiques de Rennes (ISCR) ; Université de Rennes 1 (UR1) - Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Chimie de Rennes - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA) - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) INSERM, U708, Neuroepidemiology, F-75005, Paris, France Centre d'Investigation Clinique Antilles-Guyane (CIC - Antilles Guyane) ; Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG) - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) - CHU de Pointe-à-Pitre - Centre Hospitalier de Cayenne Andrée Rosemon - CHU de Fort de France Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier Résumé : International audience Because many biological processes related to the dynamics of infectious diseases are caused by complex interactions between the environment, the host(s) and the agent(s), the necessity to address the methodological implications of this inherent complexity has recently emerged in epidemiology. Most epidemiologists now acknowledge that most human infectious diseases are likely to have complex dynamics. However, this knowledge still percolates with difficulty in their statistical "modus operandi". Indeed, for the study of complex systems, the traditional first-line statistical toolbox of epidemiologists (mainly built around the Generalized Linear Model family), despite its undeniable practicality and robustness, has structural limitations deprecating its usefulness. Three major sources of complexity neglected or not taken into account by this first-line statistical toolbox and having deep statistical implications are the multi-level organization of data, the non-linear relationships between variables and the complex interactions between variables. Three promising candidates to incorporate along with traditional tools for a new first-line statistical toolbox more suitable to apprehend these sources of complexity are the generalized linear mixed models, the generalized additive models, and the structural equation models. The aforementioned methodologies have the advantage to be generalizations of GLM models and are relatively easy to implement. Their assimilation and implementation would thus be greatly facilitated for epidemiologists. More globally, this text underlines that an improved use of other methods as such described here compared to traditional ones has to be performed to better understand the complexity challenging epidemiologists every day. This is particularly true in the field of infectious diseases for which major public health challenges will have to be addressed in the coming decades. ISSN: 1567-1348 inserm-00872354 http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00872354 http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00872354/document http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00872354/file/main_document.pdf DOI : 10.1016/j.meegid.2013.09.006 | Partager |
Mapping a Knowledge-Based Malaria Hazard Index Related to Landscape Using Remote Sensing: Application to the Cross-Border Area between French Guiana and Brazil Auteur(s) : Li, Zhichao Roux, Emmanuel Dessay, Nadine Girod, Romain Stefani, Aurélia Nacher, Mathieu Moiret, Adrien Seyler, Frédérique Auteurs secondaires : UMR 228 Espace-Dev, Espace pour le développement ; Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD) - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD) - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (UNS) ; Université Côte d'Azur (UCA) - Université Côte d'Azur (UCA) - Université d'Avignon et des Pays de Vaucluse (UAPV) - Université de la Réunion (UR) - Université de Montpellier (UM) - Université de Guyane (UG) - Université des Antilles (Pôle Martinique) ; Université des Antilles (UA) - Université des Antilles (UA) - Université des Antilles (Pôle Guadeloupe) ; Université des Antilles (UA) Expertise et spatialisation des connaissances en environnement (ESPACE) Unité d'Entomologie Médicale ; Institut Pasteur de la Guyane Medicine Department ; Ecosystemes Amazoniens et Pathologie Tropicale (EPat) ; Institut Pasteur de la Guyane - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) - Université de Guyane (UG) - Institut Pasteur de la Guyane - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) - Université de Guyane (UG) Centre d'Investigation Clinique Antilles-Guyane (CIC - Antilles Guyane) ; Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG) - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) - CHU de Pointe-à-Pitre - Centre Hospitalier de Cayenne Andrée Rosemon - CHU de Fort de France Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD MDPI Résumé : International audience Malaria remains one of the most common vector-borne diseases in the world and the definition of novel control strategies can benefit from the modeling of transmission processes. However, data-driven models are often difficult to build, as data are very often incomplete, heterogeneous in nature and in quality, and/or biased. In this context, a knowledge-based approach is proposed to build a robust and general landscape-based hazard index for malaria transmission that is tailored to the Amazonian region. A partial knowledge-based model of the risk of malaria transmission in the Amazonian region, based on landscape features and extracted from a systematic literature review, was used. Spatialization of the model was obtained by generating land use and land cover maps of the cross-border area between French Guiana and Brazil, followed by computing and combining landscape metrics to build a set of normalized landscape-based hazard indices. An empirical selection of the best index was performed by comparing the indices in terms of adequacy with the knowledge-based model, intelligibility and correlation with P. falciparum incidence rates. The selected index is easy to interpret and successfully represents the current knowledge about the role played by landscape patterns in malaria transmission within the study area. It was significantly associated with P. falciparum incidence rates, using the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients (up to 0.79 and 0.75, respectively; p-value < 0.001), and the linear regression coefficient of determination (reaching 0.63; p-values < 0.001). This study establishes a spatial knowledge-driven, landscape-based hazard malaria index using remote sensing that can be easily produced on a regular basis and might be useful for malaria prediction, surveillance, and control. Keywords: remote sensing; land use and land cover; landscape metric; knowledge-based hazard modeling; malaria; cross-border area between French Guiana and Brazil ISSN: 2072-4292 hal-01355255 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01355255 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01355255/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01355255/file/010066865.pdf IRD : fdi:010066865 | Partager Voir aussi malaria cross-border area between French Guiana and Brazil remote sensing land use and land cover landscape metric knowledge-based hazard modeling [STAT.AP] Statistics [stat]/Applications [stat.AP] [SDV.SPEE] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie [SHS.GEO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography |
Geodynamics/karstification interactions and 3D geological modelling of carbonate massifs: Implication for the estimated distribution of karst. Example of Cretaceous to Neogene paleokarsts (Montpellier area, southern France) ; Interaction géodynamique/karstification et modélisation géologique 3D des massifs carbonatés : Implication sur la distribution prévisionnelle de la karstification. Exemple des paléokarts crétacés à néogènes du Languedoc montpelliérain Auteur(s) : HUSSON, Eglantine Auteurs secondaires : Bassins ; Géosciences Montpellier ; Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG) - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS) - Université de Montpellier (UM) - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) - Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG) - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS) - Université de Montpellier (UM) - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Université Montpellier II - Sciences et Techniques du Languedoc Michel Séranne(seranne@gm.univ-montp2.fr) Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Résumé : The present study addresses the question of increasing need in water supply. One line of research consists in investigating karst aquifers that represent significant water supplies for the areas around the Mediterranean. This work aims at developing a methodology of predictive evaluation of karst distribution and karst thickness within the carbonate massifs. It is based on the study of the Tethysian carbonate platform from the area of Montpellier, South of France. This area underwent a polyphased, complex, tectonic evolution, involving successive karst forming events. The approach is based on the relationships between eustacy and geodynamics, on one hand, and base-level variation recorded within palaeokarsts, on the other hand. Sedimentary fill of palaeokarsts allows to identify distinct karstification phases and sometimes to date them. It is a marker of base-level variations, which we attempt to quantify, that is responsible for karst formation and karst filling and sealing. For three palaeokarsts of regional extent, we analyze : karst sedimentary-fill, the distribution along upstream-downstream profile, the vertical extension of palaeokarsts, indicative of the base-level lowering. - The " Bauxite palaeokarst " results from the two-stage evolution of the " Isthme Durancien " : i) Bauxitic weathering of the Neocomian cover over the southern Massif Central , related to an inversion during Barremian ; ii) ≥1600 m uplift and exhumation during Aptian-Albian, inducing erosion of alterites, upstream, and deposition of detrital bauxites, downstream. - The " Early Paleocene palaeokarsts with marine sedimentary-fill " indicate base level variations of more than 350m in the upstream area. It is suggested here that such base-level variations, exceeding eustacy and recorded in tabular undeformed series, result from desiccation-flooding events in an endoreic silled basin. - The " Miocene palaeokarst with Cevennes-sourced sediment-fill " records a Serravalian-Tortonian base-level drop, depicted by canyon incision in the hinterland of the Gulf of Lion Margin. Uplift values of ≥ 400m upstream, about 250m in an intermediate area and 10's of m downstream, are measured. The present 3D geometry and distribution of carbonate massifs (exposed and covered) are modeled in the study area, from the Cevennes to the Mediterranean. The 3D geological model integrates seismic reflection, borehole and gravimetric data. Tectonic restoration of a N-S section, extracted from the 3D model, allows to reconstruct paleo-base-levels with respect with the carbonate massifs, at different stages of deformation and successive phases of karstification. The 3D paleo-flows through carbonates across the study area, are thus constrained, especially during the Messinian desiccation stage. Application of the results to hydrogeology leads to the following : - Uplift of upstream hinterland (Cretaceous, Miocene) produces large amplitude karsts, but they do not make significant reservoirs. - Karstification responsible for the development of important and deep karst reservoirs is related to desiccation of endoreic basins (early Paleocene and Messinian). - Theses two events have produced two main deep karst reservoirs, with a gravimetric signature : (1) Upstream of Montpellier Thrust, between Pic St Loup, Les Matelles Fault and Hérault Basin, a deep karsts developed over 900m thickness in the Malm limestone, during Paleocene. (2) Downstream (south) of Montpellier Thrust, the coastal karsts extend offshore over more than 10km, they are sealed by a thick Miocene to Quaternary cover, and they result from the Messinian event. Cette étude s'inscrit dans un contexte de demande croissante en ressources en eau, conduisant à mieux contraindre et estimer la distribution des aquifères karstifiés qui représentent une ressource importante, notamment sur le pourtour méditerranéen. Le but de ce travail est d'élaborer une méthode prédictive de la distribution de la karstification et de l'épaisseur de massifs carbonatés karstifiés, notamment pour les karsts profonds. La méthodologie est développée à partir de l'étude des karsts de la plateforme carbonatée téthysienne du Languedoc montpelliérain; région qui a subi une histoire tectonique complexe et polyphasée, entrainant des phases de karstification successives. Elle est basée sur la compréhension des relations entre eustatisme, géodynamique et niveau de base, enregistrées par les paléokarsts de la région. Le remplissage sédimentaire des paléokarsts permet d'identifier les épisodes de karstification et de les dater ; c'est un marqueur des variations -que l'on cherche à quantifier- du niveau de base local responsable de la formation et du comblement des karsts. On analyse 3 paléokarsts d'extension régionale dont on peut étudier : le remplissage karstique, la distribution le long de profils amont-aval et l'extension verticale indicatrice de l'amplitude de l'abaissement du niveau de base dont il est issu. On en déduit les causes géodynamiques à l'origine de leur formation: - Le " paléokarst des bauxites " à remplissage caractéristique, résulte de l'évolution en 2 phases de " l'Isthme Durancien " : altération bauxitique de la couverture néocomienne sur le sud du Massif Central, liée à une inversion au Barrémien, suivi d'une surrection ≥ 1600m à l'Aptien-Albien, causant l'érosion des altérites en amont et le dépôt des bauxites détritiques en aval. - Le " paléokarst à remplissage marin paléocène inférieur " indique des variations du niveau de base local ≥350m dans la zone amont sud-cévenole. On propose que ces variations de niveau de base d'amplitude très supérieures aux variations eustatiques et dans une zone faiblement déformée, résultent d'assèchements et d'ennoiements d'un bassin endoréique à seuil. - Le " paléokarst à remplissage détritique d'origine cévenole ", enregistre la chute du niveau de base au Serravalien-Tortonien, qui se traduit par l'incision de canyons dans l'arrière-pays de la marge du Golfe du Lion. On détermine une surrection de plus de 400 mètres à l'amont, près de 250m dans les blocs faillés intermédiaires et quelques dizaines de mètres dans la zone avale. En parallèle, on établit la géométrie et la distribution actuelles des massifs carbonatés dans la zone d'étude (y compris sous couverture), en construisant un modèle géologique 3D, des Cévennes à la Méditerranée. On intègre les données de sismique réflexion, de forages et les données gravimétriques. La restauration tectonique séquentielle d'une coupe Nord-Sud extraite du modèle géologique permet d'appréhender la position des paléo-niveaux de base par rapport aux massifs carbonatés, pour chaque époque de karstification. On déduit l'organisation 3D des paléo-écoulements à travers la géométrie complexe des massifs carbonatés languedociens, notamment pendant l'évènement messinien. En terme d'évaluation de la ressource en eau, on déduit que: - Les surrections de l'arrière-pays (Crétacé " moyen ", Miocène) produisent des karsts de grande amplitude, mais ne constituent pas de réservoirs significatifs. - La karstification à l'origine de réservoirs exploitables importants et profonds est créée par l'assèchement de bassins endoréiques, qui ont affecté la région au Paléocène inférieur et au Messinien . - Ces deux évènements sont à l'origine de deux principaux réservoirs karstiques profonds qui ont une signature gravimétrique : (1) En amont du chevauchement de Montpellier, entre le Pic Saint Loup, la faille des Matelles et le bassin de l'Hérault, le karst profond se développe sur une épaisseur atteignant 900m, et est attribuée à l'événement du Paléocène. (2) Au Sud du chevauchement de Montpellier les karsts côtiers s'étendent jusqu'à plus de 10 km au large, scellés par une épaisse couverture Miocène et Plio-Quaternaire, et résultent de l'événement Messinien. https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00936257 tel-00936257 https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00936257 https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00936257/document https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00936257/file/thA_se_husson_couleurs.pdf | Partager |
INFLUENCE OF GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION TYPICAL DAYS ON FORECASTING MODELS ERROR Auteur(s) : Soubdhan, Ted Voyant, Cyril Lauret, Philippe Auteurs secondaires : Laboratoire de Recherche en Géosciences et Énergies (LaRGE) ; Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG) Sciences pour l'environnement (SPE) ; Université Pascal Paoli (UPP) - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Physique et Ingénierie Mathématique pour l'Énergie, l'environnemeNt et le bâtimenT (PIMENT) ; Université de la Réunion (UR) Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Résumé : International audience In this work, we have led an analysis of the error of different global solar radiation prediction models according to the global solar radiation variability. Different predictions models where performed such as machine learning techniques (Neural Networks, Gaussian processes and support vector machines) in order to forecast the Global Horizontal solar Irradiance (GHI). We also include in this study a simple linear autoregressive (AR) model as well as two naive models based on persistence of the GHI and persistence of the clear sky index (denoted herein scaled persistence model). The models are calibrated and tested with data from three 3 French islands: Corsica (42.15°N ; 9.08°E), Guadeloupe (16.25°N ; 61.58°W) and Reunion (21.15°S ; 55.5°E). Guadeloupe and Reunion are located in a subtropical climatic zone whereas Corsica is in a tempered climatic zone. Hence the global solar radiation variation differs significantly. The output error of the different models was quantified by the nRSME. In order to quantify the influence of the global solar radiation variability on the forecasting models error we performed a classification of typical days according to different typical days. Each class of typical day is defined by a variation of global solar radiation rate. For each class and for each location, the selected forecasting models where performed and the error was quantified. With this analysis a global solar radiation forecasting models can be selected according to the location, the global solar radiation fluctuations and hence the meteorological conditions. INTRODUCTION Large and frequent variations of solar radiation can be observed in tropical climates with amplitudes reaching 800 W/m² and occurring within a short time interval, from few seconds to few minutes, according to the geographical location. Such fluctuations can be due for example to the dynamic of clouds which can be very complex and depend on cloud type, size, speed and spatial distribution and, more generally, due to some specific local meteorological conditions. Thus, the solar energy forecasting, a process used to predict the amount of solar energy available in the current and near terms, might be a difficult task. Some of the best predictors found in literature are Autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) [5,7,8], Bayesian inferences [9,10], Markov chains [11], k-Nearest-Neighbors predictors [12] or artificial intelligence techniques as the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) [9-11]. Although these methodologies are potentially good in many areas, we observed in our previous studies on global radiation prediction [9,13,14] that the simple model based on the persistence of the clear sky index gives often very good results with acceptable errors [15] for short term forecasting time horizon (<= 1 hour). The goal of this paper is to determinate the influence of solar radiation variability regarding different classes of days on the expected error provided by different forecasting methods that the modeller can possibly implement. The paper is organized as follow: Section 2 describes the data we have used. Section 3 exposes the classification methodology and the results obtained for the three studied locations. In the two following sections, the forecasting methods are exposed and then 3 the errors on the forecasting results for each location and for each class are exposed. The Third Southern African Solar Energy Conference (SASEC2015) Kruger National Park, South Africa Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess hal-01099487 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01099487 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01099487/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01099487/file/article%20SASEC.pdf | Partager |
Prenatal exposure to chlordecone, gestational weight gain, and birth weight in a Guadeloupean birth cohort Auteur(s) : Hervé, David Costet, Nathalie Kadhel, Philippe Rouget, Florence Monfort, Christine Thomé, J.-P. Multigner, Luc Cordier, Sylvaine Auteurs secondaires : Institut de recherche, santé, environnement et travail [Rennes] (Irset) ; Université d'Angers (UA) - Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG) - Université de Rennes 1 (UR1) - École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique [EHESP] (EHESP) - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) - Structure Fédérative de Recherche en Biologie et Santé de Rennes ( Biosit : Biologie - Santé - Innovation Technologique ) ATC2003-A0313665, Inserm, National Institute of Health and Medical Research Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Résumé : International audience Background Chlordecone is a persistent organochlorine insecticide with well-defined estrogenic properties. It was intensively used in the French West Indies until 1993 to control the banana root borer. Because of the long-term contamination of soils and water, the population is currently exposed to chlordecone through food consumption. Chlordecone has been found in the blood of pregnant women and in cord blood. It has been shown to be an endocrine-disrupting chemical and exposure during pregnancy may affect fetal growth. Objectives The objective of our study was to examine the association between prenatal exposure to chlordecone and fetal growth based on the TIMOUN birth cohort conducted in Guadeloupe, with a focus on the potential modification of this relationship by maternal body mass index (BMI) and gestational weight gain (GWG). Methods Chlordecone was determined in cord plasma at birth in 593 babies. Birth weight was the indicator of fetal growth. Maternal pre-pregnancy BMI and GWG were determined. Adherence to GWG recommendations of the US Institute of Medicine based on maternal pre-pregnancy BMI was assessed. Birth weight was analyzed relative to cord blood chlordecone levels using linear and non-linear regression models. Results Overall chlordecone in cord blood was not associated with birth weight, but we found an interaction between chlordecone exposure with GWG and adherence to GWG recommendations. After stratification by GWG, we found a significant U-shaped association between birth weight and chlordecone exposure, within the upper quartiles of GWG or excessive GWG. Conclusion Chlordecone exposure may affect fetal growth, particularly when excessive GWG is present. © 2016 Elsevier Inc. Environmental Research hal-01367154 https://hal-univ-rennes1.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01367154 DOI : 10.1016/j.envres.2016.08.004 PUBMED : 27560981 | Partager |
Revealing organic carbon-nitrate linear relationship from UV spectra of freshwaters in agricultural environment Auteur(s) : Thomas, O. Jung, A. V. Causse, J. Louyer, M. V. Piel, S. Baurès, E. Thomas, M. F. Auteurs secondaires : Institut de recherche, santé, environnement et travail [Rennes] (Irset) ; Université d'Angers (UA) - Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG) - Université de Rennes 1 (UR1) - École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique [EHESP] (EHESP) - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) - Structure Fédérative de Recherche en Biologie et Santé de Rennes ( Biosit : Biologie - Santé - Innovation Technologique ) École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique [EHESP] (EHESP) Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier Résumé : International audience A strong non linear relationship between nitrate and organic matter (assessed by dissolved organic carbon, DOC) has been recently demonstrated by Taylor and Townsend (2010), namely for freshwaters. In this context, our study explores this relation from the behavior of sets of normalized UV spectra (same area under each spectrum) of different water samples showing a hidden isosbestic point (HIP) around 225 nm. This HIP is linked to the existence of a simple relation between nitrate and DOC, the proportions of which vary according to the sampling location and environmental factors. In a second step, a simple linear model is proposed for nitrate-DOC relationship (α⋅NO3+β⋅DOC=1) and a validation is proposed for more than 150 samples of different Brittany rivers and lakes. For samples of the largest watershed, a complementary exploitation from data acquired during the different campaigns confirmed the seasonal evolution between spring (high nitrate/low DOC) and autumn (high DOC/low nitrate). Further investigation on other freshwater samples is needed in order to improve the limits of this linear model. ISSN: 0045-6535 hal-01063932 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01063932 DOI : 10.1016/j.chemosphere.2014.03.034 PUBMED : 24875878 | Partager |
Construction et étude d'un modèle de réseau trophique de la vasière de Brouage (bassin de marennes Oléron, France). Prise en compte de la saisonnalité et des échanges physiques pour la synthèse constructive des connaissances sur une zone intertidale d'une région tempérée. Auteur(s) : Leguerrier, Dephine Éditeur(s) : Université de la Rochelle Résumé : In order to better understand the functioning of the Brouage intertidal mudflat (Marennes- Oléron Basin, France), its carbon-based trophic web has been modelled and analyzed. The foodweb building is based on the 4 step method of Inverse Analysis: 1) conceive an a priori model as the graph of compartments (nodes) between which exist fluxes of material (vertices). These vertices are the unknowns for the problem; 2) gather all the existing knowledge about the ecosystem and translate it into linear equations and inequalities involving the fluxes; 3) complete this set of data by common knowledge on the behaviour of the compartments and translate it into inequalities, 4) solve the obtained linear system under the parsimony principle to find a unique solution vector. The food-web analysis is based on. The first purpose of this work was a methodological one: inverse analysis method has been adapted to consider the seasonal and spatial variability of the temperate ecosystem: two seasons have been coupled in the computation and the area has been divided into three geographical zones along a cross-shore gradient. Hence, two types of physical exchanges are involved: the benthicpelagic ones and the advection ones. Statistical results can also be obtained by coupling Monte Carlo methods to Inverse Analysis. To study the obtained networks, new indices based on Markov Chains take delay into account in describing integrative transfers of material between compartments. This lets emerge the systems' properties that are not obvious at first sight and emphasizes the role of peculiar components. The second purpose was to apply such methods to the Brouage mudflat ecosystem in order to better understand its functioning. As the knowledge and methods evolve, various food webs were computed and analyzed with the help such indices and existing ones. Sensitivity analyses allow to point at the most crucial lacks of knowledge, which can orientate future field research. New data would improve the quality of the model in two ways: one the one hand, they would validate or invalidate the outcomes and on the other hand, they would give useful information to better constrain some of the black boxes and most uncertain fluxes, especially the advection and vertical flows. The main results of the study show a strongly seasonal system in which benthic and pelagic components are linked with intensity. The system is driven by its high local benthic primary production, but also depends on imports from the basin. Each of the 3 geographic zones has a peculiar functioning. The central zone corresponds to the classical description of European intertidal mudflats: very productive, it can feed the other regions. It is a production zone. The upper part is less productive but is fed by the middle one via the water column and can be exploited by shorebirds. It is a degradation zone (material is transformed for less qualitative). The lower part strongly depends on the basin imports for its functioning, as the cultivated bivalves act as a pump for pelagic material of which a great part is deposited under the cultivation structures (oyster racks or mussels "bouchots"). It is a transformation zone. Un double objectif (méthodologique et appliqué) a été visé par une modélisation du réseau trophique de la vasière de Brouage (Bassin de Marennes Oléron, France) à l'aide de l'analyse inverse, et son étude à l'aide de l'analyse des réseaux. L'Analyse Inverse permet en effet de reconstruire l'ensemble du réseau à partir de données éparses, le problème du manque de données étant récurrent en Ecologie. Au plan méthodologique, l'analyse inverse a été adaptée à la prise en compte des caractères saisonnier et spatialement hétérogène d'un écosystème tempéré de zone intertidale : deux saisons ont ainsi été couplées et la vasière a été considérée le long d'un transect perpendiculaire au rivage et divisé en trois zones spatiales. Deux types de flux physiques interviennent donc : les flux verticaux de dépôt et remise en suspension, et les flux d'advection via la colonne d'eau. Des pistes d'amélioration et de nouvelles méthodes sont proposées. Un résultat sous forme statistique peut être obtenu en couplant l'utilisation de méthodes de Monte Carlo à l'analyse inverse pour la construction des réseaux trophiques. Les moyens d'étude des modèles ont été enrichis par la mise au point d'indices issus de la construction de chaînes de Markov et prenant en compte le caractère temporel des transferts de matière entre compartiments. Enfin, la transformation mathématique du modèle statique pour une étude dynamique de la stabilité de l'équilibre décrit est abordée. Plusieurs modèles ont été construits au cours de l'évolution des méthodes et de l'acquisition de connaissances sur le site. Des méthodes d'analyses existantes et d'autres mises au point dans le cadre de cet ouvrage ont été appliquées aux réseaux obtenus afin de faire émerger les propriétés du fonctionnement de la vasière et de souligner le rôle de certains compartiments. Des analyses de sensibilité permettent d'évaluer la robustesse des résultats et d'orienter les recherches futures en mettant en évidence les manques les plus cruciaux. Des données supplémentaires, notamment concernant les foraminifères benthiques, le zooplancton ou les mouvements verticaux du microphytobenthos permettront de fournir de meilleures contraintes et de valider (ou non) les résultats obtenus. Les principaux résultats montrent un système au fort caractère saisonnier dont les compartiments benthiques et pélagiques sont très liés. La production primaire benthique locale est un moteur important, mais qui ne suffirait pas à suppléer l'indispensable importation de matériel détritique. Le découpage de la vasière en trois zones fait apparaître les particularités de chacune. La zone centrale correspond à la description classique des « vasières intertidales européennes » : très productive, elle peut alimenter les autres régions. C'est une zone de production et d'exportation. La partie supérieure est moins productive et reçoit de la matière de la zone de milieu d'estran via la colonne d'eau. Sa production secondaire peut alors être exploitée par les limicoles, nombreux en hiver. C'est une zone de dégradation et d'exportation. Le bas d'estran dépend fortement des importations extérieures, « pompées » par les bivalves cultivés qui sont ainsi directement responsables d'une forte sédimentation sous les structures mytilicoles et ostréicoles. C'est une zone de transformation. Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2005/these-2260.pdf http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/2260/ | Partager Voir aussi Brouage Mudflat Box Model Seasonality Dynamic Model Static Model Monte Carlo Markov Chains Network Analysis Intertidal Mudflat Food Web Télécharger |
Derivation cumulative toxicity indicators : case of semi volatile organic compounds from indoor environments ; Construction d'indicateurs de toxicites cumulees : cas des composes organiques semi volatils dans les environnements interieurs. Auteur(s) : Fournier, Kevin Auteurs secondaires : Institut de recherche, santé, environnement et travail [Rennes] (Irset) ; Université d'Angers (UA) - Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG) - Université de Rennes 1 (UR1) - École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique [EHESP] (EHESP) - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) - Structure Fédérative de Recherche en Biologie et Santé de Rennes ( Biosit : Biologie - Santé - Innovation Technologique ) Université Rennes 1 Denis Zmirou-Navier Nathalie Bonvallot Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Résumé : Semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) are widely present in indoor environments and are suspected to be repro- or neurotoxic but little is known on the health impact on SVOC mixtures. The objective of this work is to derive cumulative toxicity indicators for SVOCs detected in French dwellings in carrying forward a cumulative health risk assessment. SVOCs were grouped according to their repro- and neurotoxic common modes of action (i.e. decrease in serum testosterone concentrations, decrease in neuronal viability). Benchmark doses (BMDs) were then estimated by modeling dose-response relationships from scientific literature (Hill models, PROAST, RIVM). Comparable BMDs were estimated only for 6 of the 19 reprotoxic SVOCs which are responsible to 10 or 50% decrease in testosterone in adult male rats orally exposed. Estimated relative potency factors (RPFs) from BMDs are similar according to the response level (from 1600 for the B(a)P to 0.1 for the BBP), excepted for bisphenol A moving from 7E+6 to 180. For in vitro neuronal death, BMDs were estimated for 13 neurotoxic SVOCs using data from different cell lines and species. BMDs equivalent to a 10% of response range from 0.07 (PCB-153) to 95 µM (diazinon). The originality of this work is the grouping of compounds from different chemical families which we are really exposed to. BMDs estimation from published data was possible but many methodological limitations lead us to put forward recommendations especially on the standardization of experimental protocols and the availability of results in adapted format for dose-response relationship modeling. Les composés organiques semi volatils (COSV) sont largement présents dans les environnements intérieurs et sont suspectés d’être repro- ou neurotoxiques, mais peu de données sont disponibles quant à leur toxicité en mélanges. L’objectif de cette thèse est de proposer des indicateurs de toxicité cumulés pour les COSV détectés dans les logements français, dans un cadre d’évaluation des risques sanitaires cumulés. Les COSV ont été regroupés en fonction de leurs modes d’action communs, en lien avec les effets reprotoxiques (diminution de la concentration de testostérone sérique) et neurotoxiques (diminution de la viabilité neuronale). Des benchmark doses (BMD) ont ensuite été estimées par modélisation (modèle de Hill, PROAST, RIVM) des relations dose-réponse de la littérature décrivant la réponse d’intérêt. Des BMD comparables ont pu être estimées seulement pour 6 des 19 COSV reprotoxiques induisant une diminution de testostérone de 10 ou 50 % chez le rat adulte exposé par voie orale. Les facteurs de toxicité relatifs (RPF) estimés à partir des BMD sont sensiblement les mêmes en fonction du niveau de réponse (de 1600 pour le B(a)P à 0,1 pour le BBP), excepté pour le biphénol A qui passe de 7E+6 à 180. Considérant la mort neuronale in vitro, des BMD ont pu être estimées pour 13 COSV neurotoxiques, à partir de données provenant de différentes lignées et espèces. Les BMD équivalent à un niveau de réponse de 10 % s’échelonnent de 0,07 (PCB-153) à 95 µM (diazinon). L’originalité de ce travail repose sur le regroupement de composés de familles chimiques différentes qui constituent des contaminations réelles de notre environnement. Si l’estimation des quelques BMD a été possible à partir des données de la littérature, de nombreuses limites méthodologiques conduisent à émettre des recommandations en particulier sur la standardisation des protocoles expérimentaux et la disponibilité des résultats sous une forme adaptée à la modélisation de la relation dose-réponse. https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01308535 NNT : 2015REN1B019 tel-01308535 https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01308535 https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01308535/document https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01308535/file/Kevin_Fournier-.pdf | Partager |
Submarine and subaerial erosion of volcanic landscapes: comparing Pacific Ocean seamounts with Valencia Seamount, exposed during the Messinian Salinity Crisis Auteur(s) : Mitchell, N. C. Lofi, Johanna Auteurs secondaires : School of Earth, Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences [Manchester] ; University of Manchester [Manchester] Géosciences Montpellier ; Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG) - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS) - Université de Montpellier (UM) - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley Résumé : SUBSURF International audience Similarity of form between subaerial and submarine landscapes affected by erosion could suggest similarities in the process of erosion, such as by runoff and sedimentary flows, respectively. On the other hand, if aspects of form vary, its characteristics may be used to identify the environmental origin of erosion. Towards these goals, this contribution addresses the morphology of submarine volcanoes (seamounts) with widely differing histories of erosion. One set from the Pacific Ocean never exposed above sea level includes Cretaceous-age seamounts near Hawai'i (including Apu'upu'u Seamount), two seamounts of < 3 Ma in age near a mid-ocean ridge and the 11-4 Ma Jasper Seamount. These seamounts are all isolated from continents and hence from any erosion associated with mass wasting of unstable terrigenous deposits. In such isolated submarine environments, surfaces erode slowly from in situ weathering, mass wasting and scouring by sedimentary flows initiated by slope failure in pelagic or bedrock materials. The Pacific seamounts are compared with Valencia Seamount in the western Mediterranean, exposed subaerially for 100-400 k.y. during the Messinian Salinity Crisis before 5 Ma. Multibeam and deeply towed sidescan sonar data of Valencia Seamount reveal features typical of subaerial erosion of volcanic islands, such as canyons and relatively uneroded sectors (planezes) between them. Using a simple topographical reconstruction, the apparent erosion depth typically reaches 100 m within canyons and up to 180 m in places. Whereas the younger Pacific seamounts do not show these erosional features, the much older Cretaceous seamounts do have channels, which in one example suggests up to 200 m of incision. Both Valencia and Apu'upu'u seamounts have channel longitudinal profiles that are steep and typically linear to concave upwards. The erosion depth of Apu'upu'u Seamount is significant, despite the seamount's persistent submarine environment, because of its greater age, steeper flanks and greater contributing areas to channels compared with Valencia Seamount. These results illustrate that the channel morphology resulting from submarine erosion can become similar to that produced by subaerial erosion given sufficient time. ISSN: 0950-091X hal-00411425 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00411425 DOI : 10.1111/j.1365-2117.2008.00355.x | Partager |
Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5 Auteur(s) : Dufresne, J-l. Foujols, M-a. Denvil, S. Caubel, A. Marti, O. Aumont, Olivier Balkanski, Y. Bekki, S. Éditeur(s) : Springer Résumé : We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes. Climate Dynamics (0930-7575) (Springer), 2013-05 , Vol. 40 , N. 9-10 , P. 2123-2165 Droits : The Author(s) 2013. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00138/24966/23079.pdf DOI:10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1 http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00138/24966/ | Partager Voir aussi Climate Climate change Climate projections Earth System Model CMIP5 CMIP3 Greenhouse gases Aerosols Carbon cycle Allowable emissions Télécharger |
Étude géologique et géophysique des marges continentales passives : exemple du Zaïre et de l'Angola Auteur(s) : Moulin, Maryline Éditeur(s) : Université de Bretagne Occidentale Résumé : The objective of the present work is to study the formation of the passive continental margins of the Central Segment of the South Atlantic, most particularly the Congo and Angola margins. We propose a combined approach, which integrates structural constraints based on geological cross-sections (based on seismic data) and global constraints based on plate kinematic reconstructions. The structural study is based on : i) MCS and refraction data collected during the ZaiAngo programme (a joint project conducted by Ifremer and Total) ; ii) proprietary, industrial seismic data (courtesy of Total) from the Angola margin and iii) on all available seismic lines from the Africa and Brazil conjugated margins, between Walvis Ridge and the Equatorial Fracture Zones. Based on theses data, three structural domains (continental, transitional and oceanic) have been defined, the major characteristics of which are : Crustal thinning occurs abruptly, mostly below the continental slope, over a lateral distance of less than 50 km. The top of the crust deepens as the Moho shallows. Only a few extensional structures are observed ; tilted blocks are very few (one or two, depending on the profile), found only on the upper part of the slope and sealed by a discordance prior to salt deposition. The transitional domain is characterized by the existence of a pre-salt basin lying over a thin crustal layer. No tilted blocks are observed in this domain and reflectors within the pre-salt sediment series are parallel to the base of the Aptian salt, over distances greater than 100 km, precluding the possibility of any significant deformation that would imply large horizontal motions. Two types of crust are observed in the transitional domain. "Type I" crust is found below the undeformed pre-salt sediment series located below the eastern part of the basin ; it is characterized by an upper layer of thickness greater than 5 km and a abnormal velocity layer (7.2 - 7.6 km/s), up to 6 km thick. "Type II" crust is less than 5 km thick and found below the salt compressive front that affects the western part of the basin. The salt cover is continuous (no erosion surface is observed), from the continental shelf to the western termination of the basin. Salt was not deposited in a confined environment (like in the Mediterranean), but in a shallow water, lagunal environment. This imposes the zero-level and constrains the paleo-bathymetry at the time of salt deposition, which dates the latest stage of margin formation. Understanding the formation of a margin cannot be approached without studying the homolog margin. Therefore, it is of major importance to reconstruct the closure of the ocean bordered by these homolog margins and take into account the constraints imposed by the kinematic reconstructions on the lateral motions of the lithospheric plates. In order to assess the relative position of the plates at the ocean closure (prior to crustal thinning), a global study was thus performed, integrating all geophysical and geological constraints, in the ocean and on land. The role of african intra-plate deformation and its limits and their consequences have been thoroughly studied. To juxtapose the margins of the central segment of the Southern Atlantic, it is all the margins bordering the Equatorial Atlantic that need to be adjuste precisely. The kinematic study of this last region shows that the reconstruction obtained are reliable, unambiguous with a quantifiable precision The best fitting poles (obtained using the PLACA software), show that it is impossible to close the margins beyond the superposition of the salt fronts, from the Angola and Brazil margins. The geological cross-sections based on seismic data from the homolog margins indicate that a 330 km wide basin with thin (< 12 km) crust was present at the time of the fit. This basin cannot result from horizontal movement related to pure stretching or simple shear, or any model implying conservative volume. This conclusion is consistent with the existence of presalt reflectors parallel to the salt layer wich extends to the platform: the formation of the pre-salt basin must be related to vertical motions. The scenario that we propose for the evolution of the Congo-Angola margin consist in four stages: the first phase corresponds to extensional deformation limited to the few tilted blocks observed on the upper part of the slope. During the second phase, the main crustal thinning occurs, vertical motions prevailes, resulting in the formation of the continental slope and in the subsidence of the basin. The third phase corresponds to the first stress striction: deformation is concentrated in a limited section of the basin, which corresponds to the salt compression front. A proto-oceanic crust is formed, probably composed of thinned continental crust intruded by mantle material. The second stress striction corresponds to the finale phase, resulting in oceanisation senso stricto. The evolution described shows that we can not apply conservative models for margin formation (such as McKenzie and Wernicke or any of their avatars). In order to explain this thinning, one should investigate non-conservative models (implying geochemical transformation, small scale convection, intrusion...) such as those proposed in marginal or continental basins with no horizontal movments. Ce travail de thèse aborde la formation des marges continentales passives dans le segment central de l'océan Atlantique Sud (plus particulièrement au Congo et en Angola), en intégrant une étude en coupe (étude structurale à partir des coupes sismiques) et une étude en plan (étude cinématique). L'étude structurale de la marge a été réalisée à partir des données de sismique réflexion et réfraction de la campagne Zaïango et d'une compilation de données sismiques réflexion existantes sur toutes les marges africaine et brésilienne entre les zones de fracture équatoriales et la ride de Walvis. L'interprétation de ces données a permis d'individualiser la structure de la marge en trois domaines : continental, transitionnel et océanique et de déterminer quelques points majeurs sur la structuration de la marge. L'amincissement est abrupt, localisé dans la zone de pente continentale et restreint à 50 km. La marge montre peu de structures distensives : seuls un ou deux blocs basculés sont observés en haut de pente continentale. Le domaine transitionnel est caractérisé par la géométrie particulière de la sédimentation anté-salifère, l'absence de blocs basculés et la faible épaisseur de croûte. La couche sédimentaire anté-salifère montre des réflecteurs plans jusqu'à la base du sel, continus sur 100 km, éliminant toutes possibilités de déformation du socle pendant et après son dépôt. La croûte du domaine transitionnel peut-être divisée en deux types : une croûte de type I sur laquelle se déposent les sédiments non déformés, et une croûte de type II sur laquelle se superposent les limites du « front compressif salifère » bien exprimé dans les séries postsalifères. Enfin le sel, que l'on observe depuis la plate-forme jusqu'au bassin profond, ne se dépose pas dans un bassin confiné (comme en Méditerranée) mais à un niveau proche de 0 m (ressemblant probablement à un dépôt de type lagunaire) et donne la paléo-bathymétrie au moment de son dépôt qui marque la fin de la période de formation de la marge. La compréhension de la genèse d'une marge ne peut être approchée sans son homologue. Cette simple constatation, cette évidence, montre toute l'importance que l'on doit apporter à la reconstruction cinématique initiale de l'océan qui borde ces marges homologues et aux contraintes imposées par les reconstructions cinématiques sur les mouvements horizontaux des plaques lithosphériques. Afin d'étudier la position des marges au moment de cette fermeture, c'est-à-dire avant amincissement, une étude globale intégrant l'ensemble des données disponibles, géophysiques et géologiques, océaniques et continentales, a été réalisée. Le rôle de la déformation intraplaque africaine, ses limites et leurs conséquences a, en particulier, été l'objet d'une attention poussée. Pour juxtaposer les marges du segment central, ce sont toutes les marges de l'océan Atlantique Equatorial qui doivent être ajustées précisément. L'étude cinématique réalisée de la région équatoriale montre que l'on obtient une reconstruction fiable et sans ambiguïté, avec une précision que l'on peut quantifier. Les pôles issus de cette étude (et calculés avec le Logiciel PLACA) indiquent qu'il est impossible d'obtenir une fermeture plus serrée que celle qui conduit à la superposition des fronts salifères brésilien et angolais : les coupes issues de la sismique réflexion des deux marges indiquent qu'il subsiste un bassin aminci, large de plus de 330 km et dont la croûte n'excède jamais 13 kilomètres d'épaisseur. La formation de ce bassin ne peut résulter de mouvements horizontaux, ce qui exclut un amincissement par étirement (pure stretching) ou par l'existence d'une faille de détachement (simple shear) ou par quelque modèle conservatif que ce soit. Cette constatation corrobore l'observation de la présence d'horizons anté-salifère parallèles, entre eux et au sel, couche salifère que l'on retrouve sur la plate-forme : la création de ce bassin anté-salifère ne peut être que liée à un mouvement vertical. Le schéma d'évolution que nous proposons à partir des données structurales et des contraintes cinématiques présente quatre étapes : le premier stade correspond à une phase de déformation distensive limitée aux quelques rares blocs basculés observés en haut de pente continentale. C'est durant la deuxième étape que se déroule la phase d'amincissement principal, les mouvements verticaux prévalent, aboutissant à la formation de la pente continentale et à la subsidence du bassin. La troisième phase correspond à une première striction des contraintes : la déformation se concentre sur une partie réduite du bassin, coïncidant avec le front salifère compressif. Une proto-croûte océanique se forme, probablement composée de croûte continentale amincie et intrudée de matériel mantellique. La seconde striction correspond à la phase finale de formation de la marge et aboutit à l'océanisation sensu stricto. L'étude cinématique et la description de l'évolution de la marge à partir des données sismiques montre donc que l'on ne peut envisager l'application d'un modèle de genèse des marges avec conservation de volume (type McKenzie ou Wernicke et leurs avatars) : pour expliquer l'amincissement du bassin, il faudrait probablement nous intéresser aux modèles non-conservatifs (impliquant transformation, convection à petite échelle, ...) qui sont déjà invoqués pour la formation des bassins marginaux ou continentaux, sans mouvements horizontaux. Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2003/these-82.pdf http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/82/ | Partager |
Biological traits, rather than environment, shape detection curves of large vertebrates in neotropical rainforests Auteur(s) : Denis, Thomas Richard-Hansen, Cécile Brunaux, Olivier Etienne, Marie Pierre Guitet, Stéphane Herault, Bruno Auteurs secondaires : Ecologie des forêts de Guyane (ECOFOG) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (CIRAD) - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA) - Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG) - AgroParisTech - Université de Guyane (UG) - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Recherche et Développement, Réserve de Montabo ; Office National des Forêts (ONF) Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées (MIA-Paris) ; Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA) - AgroParisTech Botanique et Modélisation de l'Architecture des Plantes et des Végétations (UMR AMAP) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (CIRAD) - Institut national de la recherche agronomique [Montpellier] (INRA Montpellier) - Université de Montpellier (UM) - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]) Recherche et Développement - Réserve de Montabo ; Office National des Forêts (ONF) Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Ecological Society of America Résumé : Line transect surveys are widely used in neotropical rainforests to estimate the population abundance of medium- and large-sized vertebrates. The use of indices such as Encounter Rate has been criticized because the probability of animal detection may fluctuate due to the heterogeneity of environmental conditions among sites. In addition, the morphological and behavioral characteristics (biological traits) of species affect their detectability. In this study, we compared the extent to which environmental conditions and species' biological traits bias abundance estimates in terra firme rainforests in French Guiana. The selected environmental conditions included both physical conditions and forest structure covariates, while the selected biological traits included the morphological and behavioral characteristics of species. We used the distance sampling method to model the detection probability as an explicit function of environmental conditions and biological traits and implemented a model selection process to determine the relative importance of each group of covariates. Biological traits contributed to the variability of animal detectability more than environmental conditions, which had only a marginal effect. Detectability was best for large animals with uniform or disruptive markings that live in groups in the canopy top. Detectability was worst for small, solitary, terrestrial animals with mottled markings. In the terra firme rainforests which represent ~80% of the Amazonia and Guianas regions, our findings support the use of relative indices such as the encounter rate to compare population abundance between sites in species-specific studies. Even though terra firme rainforests may appear similar between regions of Amazonia and the Guianas, comparability must be ensured, especially in forests disturbed by human activity. The detection probability can be used as an indicator of species' vulnerability to hunting and, thus, to the risk of local extinction. Only a few biological trait covariates are required to correctly estimate the detectability of the majority of medium- and large-sized vertebrates. Thus, a biological trait model could be useful in predicting the detection probabilities of rare, uncommon or localized species for which few data are available to fit the detection function. ISSN: 1051-0761 hal-01555267 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01555267 DOI : 10.1002/eap.1549 PRODINRA : 396614 PUBMED : 28419598 | Partager |