Dynamical multilevel schemes for the solution of evolution equations by hierarchical finite element discretization. Auteur(s) : Laminie, Jacques Calgaro, Caterina Temam, Roger, Auteurs secondaires : Laboratoire de Mathématiques Informatique et Applications (LAMIA) ; Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG) Laboratoire Paul Painlevé - UMR 8524 (LPP) ; Université de Lille, Sciences et Technologies - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) SImulations and Modeling for PArticles and Fluids (SIMPAF) ; Inria Lille - Nord Europe ; Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria) - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria) - Laboratoire Paul Painlevé - UMR 8524 (LPP) ; Université de Lille, Sciences et Technologies - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) - Université de Lille, Sciences et Technologies - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Institute for Scientific Computing and Applied Mathematics (ISC) ; Indiana University [Bloomington] Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier Résumé : International audience The full numerical simulation of turbulent flows in the context of industrial applications remains a very challenging problem. One of the difficulties is the presence of a large number of interacting scales of different orders of magnitude, ranging from the macroscopic scale to the Kolmogorov dissipation scale. In order to better understand and simulate these interactions, new algorithms of incremental type have recently been introduced, stemming from the theory of infinite-dimensional dynamical systems (see, e.g., the algorithms of Foias, Jolly et al. (1988), Foias, Manley and Temam (1988), Laminie et al. (1993, 1994), Marion and Temam (1989, 1990), and Temam (1990)). These algorithms are based on decompositions of the unknown functions into a large- and a small-scale component, one of the underlying ideas being to approximate the corresponding attractor. In the context of finite element methods, the decomposition of a solution into small- and large-scale components appears when we consider hierarchical bases (Yserentant, 1986; Zienkiewicz et al., 1982). In the present article we derive several estimates of the size of the structures for the linear and nonlinear terms which correspond to interactions of different hierarchical components of the velocity field, and also their time variation. The one-step time variation of these terms can be smaller than the expected accuracy of the computation. Using this remark, we implement an adaptive spatial and temporal multilevel algorithm which treats differently the small- and large-scale components of the flow. We derive several a priori estimates in order to study the perturbation introduced into the approximated equations. All the interaction terms between small- and large-scale structures are frozen during several time steps. Finally, we implement the multilevel method in order to simulate a bidimensional flow described by the Burgers equations. We perform a parametric study of the procedure and its efficiency. The gain in CPU time is significant and the trajectories computed by our multi-scale method remain close to the trajectories obtained with the classical Galerkin method. ISSN: 0168-9274 hal-00730710 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00730710 | Partager |
Simulations numériques méso- et micro-échelles des circulations locales générées par des îles tropicales : cas de l’archipel de la Guadeloupe avec une application à la dispersion de polluants (WRF-LES-FLEXPART) ; Meso-scale and micro-scale numerical simulations of local circulations induced by tropical islands : Case of the Guadeloupe archipelago with a pollutant dispersion case (WRF-LES-FLEXPART) Auteur(s) : Cécé, Raphaël Auteurs secondaires : Antilles-Guyane Zahibo, Narcisse Résumé : Ce travail est l'expression d'une volonté de chercheurs, de la Carabe d'améliorer les connaissances scientifiques méso- et micro-météorologiques appliquées aux milieux insulaires sous influence des alizés et de développer la recherche dans ces domaines.On sait que le phénomène météorologique le plus remarquable impactant les îles de la Caraïbe reste le cyclone tropical. Mais d'autres phénomènes, a des échelles inferieures, telles que les pluies intenses, les houles, la dégradation de la qualité de l'air ont une importance aigüe en termes de risques naturels ou de risques sur la sante. Ces exemples attestent la nécessité d'utiliser des méthodes de descente d'échelle pour exploiter l'information météorologique et/ou climatique de grande échelle et dériver des scenarios locaux et régionaux appliques aux territoires insulaires. Ce défi est important car l'attente d'analyses scientifiques pertinentes dans ces domaines est grande.Les travaux présentés dans ce mémoire ont pour principaux objectifs la simulation numérique puis l'analyse des mécanismes méso- et micro-échelles qui induisent des circulations locales diurnes et nocturnes sur l'archipel de la Guadeloupe à l'aide de codes numériques météorologiques éprouves car largement utilises en recherche et en prévision opérationnelle.Ils constituent donc la première étude de modélisation numérique à haute résolution en basse atmosphère, par descente d'échelle dynamique, pour des intervalles d'espace compris entre 1 km et 111 m sur cet archipel.Le modelé atmosphérique Weather Research and Forecasting ARW V3.4 (WRF ARW), non-hydrostatique, a été utilise pour l'ensemble des simulations pour modéliser la troposphère depuis l'échelle globale à l'échelle de la turbulence.Trois situations météorologiques classiques réelles d'une durée de 48 heures, correspondant à 80 % des situations météorologiques observées dans la zone, alizes soutenus (AS), alizes moyens (AM), alizes faibles (AF) ont été examinées. Ces situations sont caractérisées par les valeurs du nombre de Froude local suivantes : 0,82 (AS), 0,41 (AM) et 0,21 (AF). Six domaines de modélisation ont été sélectionnés pour effectuer les descentes d'échelle dynamiques : D01 (maille de 27 km), D02 (maille de 9 km), D03 (maille de 3 km), D04 (maille de 1 km), D05 (maille de 333 m) et D06 (maille de 111 m) avec soixante-dix niveaux verticaux. Les quatre premiers domaines (D01 à D04) couvrent l'archipel de la Guadeloupe et sont utilisés en mode méso-échelle à l'aide d'un schéma d'ensemble de couche limite planétaire YSU. Les domaines D05 (couvrant l'île de la Basse-Terre et le centre de l'archipel) et D06 (couvrant la zone littorale et rurale du Petit Cul-de-Sac Marin et la zone urbaine de l'agglomération pointoise) sont utilisés en mode Large Eddy Simulation avec une fermeture de la turbulence 1,5 TKE 3D. Le modèle WRF a été forcé toutes les six heures par l'assimilation des champs d'analyses globales du modèle NCEP FNL (1° de résolution). Les simulations effectuées ont permis d'obtenir des champs de variables météorologiques 10-minutes à très hautes résolutions spatiales.Les résultats des simulations méso- et micro-échelles ont été confrontés aux valeurs expérimentales obtenues à l'aide de capteurs places sur des mâts météorologiques (campagne Atmo-Mangrov et réseau de mesure Météo-France). Il s'agissait d'optimiser l'utilisation des couplages de codes numériques tout en conservant la possibilité de les confronter aux observations expérimentales.Les résultats des simulations numériques micro-échelles, des différents cas (AS, AM, AF) sont utilisées pour forcer (c'est-à-dire définir les conditions limites) un modèle lagrangien de dispersion de particules : FLEXPART. Le système couple FLEXPART-WRF a été employé dans le domaine D06 pour étudier la dispersion du panache d'oxydes d'azote émis par la principale usine de production d'électricité de l'île. The present work expresses the will of Caribbean researchers to improve the meso- and micro-meteorological scientific knowledge of the trade winds influenced island areas, and to develop research in these domains.It is well known that tropical hurricanes remain the most remarkable meteorological phenomena that affect the Caribbean islands. But some other phenomena, of smaller scale, such as intense rainfall events, swells, or air quality degradation, are of extreme importance for natural or health hazards. These examples show the need to use downscaling methods to exploit large scale meteorological or climatic information, and to obtain local and regional scenarios for the island areas. This is an important challenge, as sound scientific studies in these matters are eagerly expected. The aim of the research works exposed in the present dissertation is numerical simulation and analysis of the meso- and microscale mechanisms that induce diurnal and nocturnal local circulations in the Guadeloupe archipelago, using numerical meteorological models that are widely used in research and in operational forecasting.These works represent the first high-resolution (1 km to 111 m) numerical study of the lower atmosphere over the Guadeloupe archipelago. The Weather Research and Forecasting ARW 3.4 (WRF-ARW) model is used to simulate the troposphere from global scale to turbulence scale. Real cases of three typical weather types (80% of cases during a year) are examined during 48 hours : strong trade winds (STW), medium trade winds (MTW) and weak trade winds (WTW). These weather types are characterized by values of the local Froude number : 0.82 (STW), 0.41 (MTW) and 0.21 (WTW). Six domains have been selected for the dynamical downscaling : D01 (grid spacing of 27 km), D02 (grid spacing of 9 km), D03 (grid spacing of 3 km), D04 (grid spacing of 1 km), D05 (grid spacing of 333 m) and D06 (grid spacing of 111 m), including 70 vertical levels. The first four domains (D01 to D04) cover the Guadeloupe archipelago and are used in the meso-scale simulations with the planetary boundary layer scheme YSU (ensemble mean). Domain D05 (covering the Basse-Terre island and the middle of the archipelago) and domain D06 (covering the coastal and rural area of Le Petit Cul-de-Sac Marin and the urban area of Pointe-à-Pitre), are employed in the micro-scale simulation (LES) with the 3D TKE 1.5 order closure scheme. WRF has been 6 hourly reinitialized with the NCEP FNL global analyses (resolution of 1°). These simulations permitted to obtain 10-minutes meteorological variable fields with a very high resolution (111 m).Meso-scale and micro-scale model results have been evaluated with observational data from meteorological stations (field campaign Atmo-Mangrov, French Met Office).Once validated, the micro-scale model outputs have been used for the assimilation of the lagrangian particle dispersion model : FLEXPART. The coupling FLEXPART-WRF has been employed in domain D06, in order to analyze the dispersion of the nitrogen oxide plume emitted by the main power plant of the archipelago. http://www.theses.fr/2014AGUY0735/document | Partager |
Meso-scale and micro-scale numerical simulations of local circulations induced by tropical islands : Case of the Guadeloupe archipelago with a pollutants dispersion case (WRF-LES-FLEXPART) ; Simulations numériques méso- et micro-échelles des circulations locales générées par des îles tropicales : cas de l’archipel de la Guadeloupe avec une application à la dispersion de polluants (WRF-LES-FLEXPART) Auteur(s) : Cécé, Raphaël Auteurs secondaires : Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG) Université des Antilles et de la Guyane Pr Narcisse Zahibo Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Résumé : Meteorological phenomena with scales lower than hurricanes, from extreme rainfalls to pollution peaks, represent important environmental and health risks in the Caribbean. These examples show the need to downscale large-scale meteorological data to island-scale fields.The main goal of the present numerical study is the analysis of the meso- and micro-scale mechanisms inducing diurnal and nocturnal circulations in the Guadeloupe archipelago. The Weather Research and Forecasting model is employed. The micro-scale results are obtained by the coupling of the 1-km simulated fields and the Large Eddy Simulation method. Then, in order to analyze the dispersion of a pollutants plume, the micro-scale outputs with 111 m of resolution are used to force the lagrangian particles dispersion model FLEXPART. The study has been conducted for three real cases of weather types linked with strong, medium and weak trade winds.The results of simulations, validated with available observed data, permitted to simulate all local circulations, including a nocturnal counter-current flow which may induce a pollution peak in the urban area of Pointe-à-Pitre city.These works, which may be applied to other Lesser Antilles islands, suggest many environmental and energy applications. Les phénomènes météorologiques d'échelles inférieures aux cyclones, depuis les pluies intenses, jusqu'à la dégradation de la qualité de l'air, ont pour les Caraïbes une importance aiguë en termes de risques naturels ou de risques sur la santé. Ces exemples attestent de la nécessité d'utiliser des méthodes de descentes d'échelle pour exploiter l'information météorologique de grande échelle et dériver des scénarios locaux appliqués aux territoires insulaires. Les travaux présentés ont pour principaux objectifs la simulation numérique et l'analyse des mécanismes méso- et micro-échelles qui induisent des circulations locales diurnes et nocturnes sur l'archipel de la Guadeloupe, à l'aide du modèle numérique météorologique Weather Research and Forecasting. Les résultats des simulations micro-échelles sont obtenus par le couplage des champs modélisés à 1 km avec la méthode Large Eddy Simulation. Les sorties micro-échelles, à 111 m, sont ensuite utilisées pour forcer le modèle lagrangien de dispersion de particules FLEXPART afin d'étudier la dispersion d'un panache de polluants. L'étude a été menée pour trois cas réels de situations météorologiques correspondant à des alizés soutenus, moyens et faibles. Les résultats des simulations, après validation, et comparaison aux données d'observation disponibles, permettent de restituer l'ensemble des circulations locales et soulignent l'existence d'un écoulement nocturne à contre courant susceptible d'induire une forte pollution sur la zone urbaine de Pointe-à-Pitre. Cette étude, transposable aux autres îles des petites Antilles, laisse envisager de nombreuses applications environnementales et énergétiques. https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01074600 Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess tel-01074600 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01074600 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01074600/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01074600/file/rcece_thesis.pdf | Partager |
DAMNED: A Distributed and Multithreaded Neural Event-Driven simulation framework Auteur(s) : Mouraud, Anthony Puzenat, Didier Paugam-Moisy, Hélène Auteurs secondaires : Groupe de Recherche en Informatique et Mathématiques Appliquées Antilles-Guyane (GRIMAAG) ; Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG) Institut des Sciences Cognitives (ISC) ; Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL) - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Résumé : 6 pages In a Spiking Neural Networks (SNN), spike emissions are sparsely and irregularly distributed both in time and in the network architecture. Since a current feature of SNNs is a low average activity, efficient implementations of SNNs are usually based on an Event-Driven Simulation (EDS). On the other hand, simulations of large scale neural networks can take advantage of distributing the neurons on a set of processors (either workstation cluster or parallel computer). This article presents DAMNED, a large scale SNN simulation framework able to gather the benefits of EDS and parallel computing. Two levels of parallelism are combined: Distributed mapping of the neural topology, at the network level, and local multithreaded allocation of resources for simultaneous processing of events, at the neuron level. Based on the causality of events, a distributed solution is proposed for solving the complex problem of scheduling without synchronization barrier. https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00015137 hal-00015137 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00015137 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00015137v2/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00015137/file/hal_damned.pdf ARXIV : cs.NE/0512018 | Partager Voir aussi Spiking Neural Networks Event-Driven Simulations Parallel Computing Multi-threading Scheduling [INFO.INFO-NE] Computer Science [cs]/Neural and Evolutionary Computing [cs.NE] [INFO.INFO-DC] Computer Science [cs]/Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing [cs.DC] [INFO.INFO-LG] Computer Science [cs]/Machine Learning [cs.LG] [SCCO.COMP] Cognitive science/Computer science |
Approche empirique de la pecherie d'espadon (Xiphias gladius) dans l'ocean Indien et modelisation des deplacements des poissons dans le paysage oceanique tropical Auteur(s) : Guyomard, David Éditeur(s) : Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Rennes Résumé : Long-line fishing has been growing on the island of La Réunion since the beginning of the 1990s. The target species is the swordfish (Xiphias gladius), fished mainly in the tropical waters surrounding the island between longitudes 45 degree E and 60 degree E, and latitudes 17 degree S and 27 degree S. From 1998 to 2000, a finalised research programme enabled the collection of precise data concerning the lines' positions and the parameters of the fishing efforts: 3,602 nettings were thus informed by the catches (in numbers of individuals caught) and 12 descriptive variables of the effort. In parallel with this collection effort, satellite maps that described the ocean's landscape of this region of the Indian Ocean exploited by La Réunion's fisheries were made available to sailors and scientists. Extractions from these environmental variables were made at the fishing lines' positions, which allowed us to propose 20 variables describing the environmental conditions of swordfish catches applied to the nettings. In an early part of this study, after a descriptive analysis and a first selection of the variables, we used several GAM (Generalised Additive Models) to model the respective effects of effort and environmental variables on the variability of swordfish catches. We thus highlighted the predominance of factors linked to fishermen (fishing effort) on oceanographic factors in the explanation of this variability. Following these results, a summary on the biology and ecology of the swordfish was proposed in order to draw up hypotheses on the characteristics of this species' population in the Indian Ocean. The aspects linked to the individual behaviour and movements of the population were particularly highlighted. In a latter part of this study and in order to complete the empirical approach by an exploratory constructivist approach, we proposed a modelling tool in order to simulate the possible movements of individuals within the oceanic landscape described by the available satellite maps. After reading in the literature about the various forms of modelling the movements of the large pelagics, we developed an original computer modelling architecture of the multi-agent type that made it possible to manipulate in a dynamic way the satellite maps (and derived products), the individual movements of "animats" whose behaviours were based on this environmental information, and agents that clarify the process of long-line fishing in a geographical way. The computer model that was implemented (MUFINS, for MUlti-Fish INdian ocean Simulator) was next used by calibrating the behaviour of the animats on the real data originally from the analysis of commercial catches proposed in the first part, using robust techniques based on fuzzy logic. The results of the simulations were compared, on the one hand, with the large-scale hypotheses of movement proposed in the first part, and, on the other hand, to swordfish catches both real and corrected for the effect of the fishing effort modelled by the GAM models. Even if the results of these simulations in this study do not allow for proposing convincing interpretations of the underlying processes, the MUFINS tool showed its ability to address questions associated with the swordfish's behaviour in the tropical oceanic landscape and to the effects of scale transfers between the individual level and the collective level. We now envisage its use in a more operational framework, as an interface for dialogue between fishermen and scientists with a goal of sustainable management of the resource. La peche palangriere s'est developpee a l'ile de La Reunion depuis le debut des annees 1990. L'espece cible est l'espadon (Xiphias gladius), principalement exploite dans les eaux tropicales autour de l'ile entre les longitudes 45 degree E et 60 degree E, et les latitudes 17 degree S et 27 degree S. De 1998 a 2000, un programme de recherche finalisee a permis de collecter des informations precises concernant les positions des lignes et les parametres de l'effort de peche : 3602 filages sont ainsi renseignes par les captures (en nombre d'individus captures) et 12 variables descriptives de l'effort. En parallele de cet effort de collecte, des cartes satellitales ont pu etre mises a la disposition des marins et des scientifiques, decrivant le paysage oceanique de cette region de l'ocean Indien exploitee par la pecherie reunionnaise. Des extractions de ces variables environnementales ont ete effectuees aux positions des lignes de peche, nous permettant de proposer 20 variables descriptives des conditions environnementales de captures d'espadon appliquees aux filages. Dans une premiere partie de ce travail, apres une analyse descriptive et une premiere selection des variables, on a modelise par plusieurs modeles GAM (Generalized Additive Models) les effets respectifs des variables d'effort et des variables environnementales sur la variabilite des captures d'espadon. On a ainsi mis en evidence la predominance des facteurs lies aux pecheurs (effort de peche) sur les facteurs oceanographiques dans le caractere explicatif de cette variabilite. A la suite de ces resultats, une synthese sur la biologie et l'ecologie de l'espadon a ete proposee afin de degager des hypotheses sur les caracteristiques de la population de cette espece dans l'ocean Indien. Les aspects lies au comportement individuel et aux deplacements de la population ont ete particulierement mis en evidence. Dans une deuxieme partie de ce travail et afin de completer l'approche empirique par une approche constructiviste exploratoire, nous avons propose un outil de modelisation afin de simuler les deplacements possibles d'individus au sein du paysage oceanique decrit par les cartes satellitales disponibles. Apres avoir passe en revue dans la litterature les differentes formes de modelisation des deplacements des grands, pelagiques, nous avons developpe une architecture originale de modelisation informatique de type multi-agents permettant de manipuler de maniere dynamique les cartes satellitales (et les produits derives), les mouvements individuels < d'animats >, dont les comportements sont bases sur cette information environnementale, et des agents qui explicitent le processus de capture palangriere de maniere geographique. Le modele informatique ainsi implemente (MUFINS, pour MUlti-Fish INdian ocean Simulator) a ensuite ete utilise en calibrant les comportements des animats sur les donnees reelles issues de l'analyse des captures commerciales proposee en premiere partie, a partir de techniques robustes basee sur la logique floue. Les resultats des simulations ont ete confrontes d'une part aux hypotheses de deplacement a grande echelle proposees en premiere partie, et d'autre part aux captures d'espadon reelles et corrigees de l'effet de l'effort de peche modelise par les modeles GAM. Meme si les resultats de simulations presentes dans ce travail ne permettent pas de proposer d'interpretations convaincantes des processus sous-jacents, l'outil MUFINS a demontre son aptitude a aborder les questions liees au comportement de l'espadon dans le paysage oceanique tropical et aux effets des transferts d'echelle entre le niveau individuel et le niveau collectif. On envisage desormais son utilisation dans un cadre plus operationnel, comme interface de dialogue entre les pecheurs et les scientifiques a des fins de gestion durable de la ressource. Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2005/these-2592.pdf http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/2592/ | Partager |
Fluctuations à long terme du thon rouge: validité, origines et conséquences Auteur(s) : Ravier, Christelle Éditeur(s) : Ecole nationale supérieure agronomique de Rennes Résumé : Describe and gain understanding on fluctuations in animal population over time and space is a central goal of population ecology. This is also crucial to ensure the sustainable management of exploited resources, particularly those with complex population dynamics such as the bluefin tuna. The goal of this work is to collect bluefin tuna catches from the ancestral Mediterranean and Atlantic trap fisheries to (i) characterise long-term fluctuations in bluefin tuna population migrating in the Mediterranean, (ii) analyse their causes et (iii) assess their implications for fisheries management. The bluefin tuna main biological and ecological characteristics are first detailed. Then, the first part presents the trap fishery, and the process of collect and validation of the historical catches. This leads to develop a data base of 54 time-series more than 20 years long, the longest ones spanning about four centuries. Mean historical catches were around 15 000 tons/year ([7 000;25 000]). Time-series are analysed in a second part. Temporal variability of trap catches may be decomposed in three components: 100-year-long periodic fluctuations, 20-year cycles and inter-annual variations. These medium- to long-term fluctuations, representing more than 50% of the variability in the time-series, were synchronous all around the western Mediterranean and adjacent North Atlantic. In contrast, short-term variability was synchronous at a local scale only. It is argued that long-term fluctuations in trap catches could be considered as a proxy for those in abundance, and a synthetic time-series is computed to depict them. Biological and ecological processes that could cause such long-term fluctuations are discussed in a third part. We tested whether long-term fluctuations in Atlantic bluefin tuna might be related to large-scale environmental changes, using long time-series of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Length of the Day index (LOD, a proxy of the atmospheric circulation index ACI) and the temperature. Spectral analyses of trap catches, LOD and temperature displayed similar spectra with peak at low frequency, whereas those of the NAO exhibited a broad band spectrum. Regression analyses and tests of correlation did not reveal any clear relationship between trap catches on the one hand and NAO and LOD on the other hand. In contrast, long-term fluctuations in trap catches appear to be negatively and significantly related to long-term trends in temperature. Underlying processes that could explain such a relationship are discussed, with special focus on changes in migration patterns. Finally, implications of such fluctuations in term of fisheries management are discussed in a fourth part. A simulation framework, in which a simulated population dynamics model is coupled with a VPA, is built to test the pertinence of the diagnostic of stock assessment according to different scenarios on fluctuations origins and population status. In the hypothesis of fluctuations linked to variations in the recruitment, VPA appears able to reconstruct the fluctuations but the predictions may be biased if natural fluctuations are not taking into account. In the hypothesis of fluctuations linked to changes in migration pattern, VPA is not able to reconstruct the population dynamics. In a precautionary approach, quotas which follow may be unsuitable in the best case, at worst dangerous if they are defined in comparison with a reference point. The concept of cible reference points, fixe and unique over time, appears not relevant for bluefin tuna; estimate trajectory reference pertinent may prove to be more pertinent. Décrire et comprendre les fluctuations spatio-temporelles des espèces animales constituent les enjeux majeurs de l'écologie. La question est également cruciale pour réussir la gestion durable des ressources exploitées, en particulier celle du thon rouge, grand pélagique migrateur à la dynamique complexe. L'objectif de ce travail est de collecter les captures historiques de thon rouge par les madragues méditerranéennes et proche atlantiques pour (i) caractériser les fluctuations à long terme de la population migrante en Méditerranée, (ii) étudier leur déterminisme et (iii) évaluer leurs implications en terme de gestion des pêcheries. Après avoir décrit les principales caractéristiques biologiques et écologiques du thon rouge, la première partie présente la pêcherie à la madrague, puis le processus de collecte et de validation des données historiques de captures. Ce dernier conduit à la mise en place d'une base de données de 54 séries de plus de 20 ans, dont les plus longues s'étendent sur près de 4 siècles. Les productions historiques sont estimées à environ 15 000 tonnes/an ([7 000;25 000]). Les séries historiques de captures sont analysées dans la seconde partie. Leur variabilité temporelle peut être décomposée en trois composantes : de larges cycles pseudo-séculaires, des variations périodiques d'une vingtaine d'années et des fluctuations inter-annuelles. Les fluctuations à moyen et long terme, expliquant plus de la moitié de la variance des séries, sont synchrones à l'échelle du bassin méditerranéen occidental et du proche Atlantique. La variabilité inter-annuelle, en revanche, n'est synchrone qu'à une échelle locale. On montre finalement que les fluctuations à long terme des captures peuvent être considérées comme de bons indices des tendances des abondances de la population de thons rouges migrants en Méditerranée. Une série synthétique est construite pour les décrire. Les processus biologiques et écologiques susceptibles d'être à l'origine de ces fluctuations sont discutés dans la troisième partie. L'hypothèse d'un forçage environnemental à grande échelle est testée en utilisant des indices à long terme de l'Oscillation Nord Atlantique (NAO), de la longueur du jour (LOD, un indicateur de l'indice de circulation atmosphérique ACI) et de la température. Les analyses spectrales sur les séries de captures, du LOD et des températures révèlent des spectres similaires, avec un pic sur les basses fréquences, alors que celles sur le NAO conduisent à une large bande spectrale. Les régressions et les tests de corrélations ne montrent aucune relation significative entre les captures par les madragues et le NAO et le LOD. En revanche, les fluctuations à long terme des captures apparaissent significativement et négativement corrélées avec les fluctuations à long terme des températures. Les processus sous-jacents susceptibles d'expliquer une telle relation, en particulier des changements migratoires, sont discutés. Finalement, les implications des fluctuations pour la gestion de la pêcherie sont discutées dans une quatrième partie. Un cadre de simulation, couplant un modèle de dynamique de population à une VPA, est élaboré pour tester la pertinence des diagnostics d'évaluation de stock selon différents scénarios d'origine des fluctuations et d'état de la population. Dans l'hypothèse de fluctuations liées à des variations du recrutement, la VPA apparaît capable de reconstruire les fluctuations mais les prédictions sont biaisées lorsqu'il n'est pas tenu compte des fluctuations naturelles du stock. Dans l'hypothèse de fluctuations liées à des changements migratoires, la VPA est alors incapable de reproduire la dynamique de la population. Dans une approche de précaution, les quotas qui en découlent peuvent se révéler au mieux inappropriés, au pire dangereux s'ils sont définis par rapport à un point de référence. Ce concept de point cible, fixe et unique dans le temps, apparaît inapproprié pour le thon rouge ; estimer des "trajectoires de référence" serait sans doute plus pertinent. Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2003/these-65.pdf http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/65/ | Partager |
Methylmercury in tailings ponds of Amazonian gold mines (French Guiana): Field observations and an experimental flocculation method for in situ remediation Auteur(s) : Guedron, Stephane Cossa, Daniel Grimaldi, Michel Charlet, Laurent Éditeur(s) : Pergamon-elsevier Science Ltd Résumé : Sites of monomethylmercury (MMHg) production in Amazonian regions have been identified in hydraulic reservoirs, lake sediments and wetlands, but tailings ponds have not yet received sufficient attention for this purpose. This work evidenced high MMHg production within the water column and the interstitial water of two tailings ponds of French Guiana Au mines located; (i) in a small scale exploitation (Combat) where Hg was used for Au amalgamation, and (ii) in an industrial on-going Au mine (Yaoni) processing without Hg. The (MMHg)(D) maximum (2.5 ng L-1) occurred in the oxic water column above the sediment-water interface (SWI) of the most recent tailings pond (Combat), where the substrate was fresh, the redox transition was sharp and the pool of total Hg was large. In the Yaoni pond, the (MMHg)(D) maximum concentration (1.4 ng L-1) was located at the SWI where suboxic conditions prevailed. Using the (MMHg)(D) concentration as a proxy for Hg methylation rates, the present results show that Hg methylation may occur in various redox conditions in tailings ponds, and are favored in areas where the organic matter regeneration is more active. A 3-month long laboratory experiment was performed in oxic and anoxic boxes filled with high turbidity waters from the Combat Au mine to simulate tailings ponds. Slaked lime was added in an experimental set (2 mg L-1)and appeared to be very efficient for the reduction of suspended particulate matter (SPM) to environmentally acceptable concentrations. However, at the end of the experiment, large (MMHg)(D) concentrations were monitored under treated anoxic conditions with the (MMHg)(D) maximum located at the SWI above the Fe-reducing zones. No (MMHg)(D) was detected in oxic experiments. The use of slaked lime for SPM decantation appears to be an efficient and non-onerous process for Au miners to avoid Hg methylation in tailings ponds when it is combined with rapid drainage of the mine waters. A subsequent human intervention is however necessary for the recovery of soil structure through the cover of dried ponds with organic rich materials and reforestation to avoid the stagnation of rain waters and the occurrence of anoxia. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Applied Geochemistry (0883-2927) (Pergamon-elsevier Science Ltd), 2011-02 , Vol. 26 , N. 2 , P. 222-229 Droits : 2010 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved. http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00030/14117/12133.pdf DOI:10.1016/j.apgeochem.2010.11.022 http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00030/14117/ | Partager |
Modeling the Nd isotopic composition in the North Atlantic basin using an eddy-permitting model Auteur(s) : Arsouze, Thomas Treguier, Anne-marie Peronne, Simon Dutay, J. -c. Lacan, F. Jeandel, C. Éditeur(s) : Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh Résumé : Boundary Exchange (BE - exchange of elements between continental margins and the open ocean) has been emphasized as a key process in the oceanic cycle of neodymium (Nd) (Lacan and Jeandel, 2005a). Here, we use a regional eddy-permitting resolution Ocean General Circulation Model (1/4A degrees) of the North Atlantic basin to simulate the distribution of the Nd isotopic composition, considering BE as the only source. Results show good agreement with the data, confirming previous results obtained using the same parameterization of the source in a coarse resolution global model (Arsouze et al., 2007), and therefore the major control played by the BE processes in the Nd cycle on the regional scale. We quantified the exchange rate of the BE, and found that the time needed for the continental margins to significantly imprint the chemical composition of the surrounding seawater (further referred as characteristic exchange time) is of the order of 0.2 years. However, the timescale of the BE may be subject to large variations as a very short exchange time (a few days) is needed to reproduce the highly negative values of surface waters in the Labrador Sea, whereas a longer one (up to 0.5 years) is required to simulate the radiogenic influence of basaltic margins and distinguish the negative isotopic signatures of North Atlantic Deep Water from the more radiogenic southern origin water masses. This likely represents geographical variations in erosion fluxes and the subsequent particle load onto the continental margins. Although the parameterization of the BE is the same in both configurations of the model, the characteristic exchange time in the eddy-permitting configuration is significantly lower than the previous evaluations using a low resolution configuration (6 months to 10 years), but however in agreement with the available seawater Nd isotope data. This results highlights the importance of the model dynamics in simulating the BE process. Ocean Science (1812-0784) (Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh), 2010 , Vol. 6 , N. 3 , P. 789-797 Droits : Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed, EGU http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00013/12412/9201.pdf DOI:10.5194/os-6-789-2010 http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00013/12412/ | Partager |
Wind-induced variability in larval retention in a coral reef system: a biophysical modelling study in the South-West Lagoon of New Caledonia Auteur(s) : Cuif, Marion Kaplan, David Lefevre, Jerome Faure, Vincent Martin Caillaud, Matthieu Verley, Philippe Vigliola, Laurent Lett, Christophe Éditeur(s) : Pergamon-elsevier Science Ltd Résumé : In the present work, a biophysical dispersal model is used to understand the role of the physical environment in determining reef fish larval dispersal patterns in the South-West Lagoon of New Caledonia. We focus on a reef fish species, the humbug damselfish Dascyllus aruanus, to investigate seasonal variability of simulated larval retention at the scale of a reef patch and at the scale of the lagoon, and to explore links between larval retention and wind variability. The model shows that retention exhibits considerable temporal variability and periodically reaches values much larger than anticipated. Non-zero larval settlement occurs over a large part of the lagoon. Nevertheless, settlement values decrease quickly away from the natal reef and mean dispersal distances are of order 25-35 km. Cross-correlation analyses indicate that weather conditions characterized by strong south east trade winds lead to low retention rates at both local (reef) and regional (lagoon) scales. By contrast, subtropical weather conditions characterized by weak winds result in high retention rates. These results suggest that large-scale weather regimes can be used as proxies for larval retention of the humbug damselfish in the South-West Lagoon of New Caledonia. Nevertheless, relatively small mean dispersal distances suggest that meta-population dynamics occur on relatively small spatial scales. Progress In Oceanography (0079-6611) (Pergamon-elsevier Science Ltd), 2014-03 , Vol. 122 , P. 105-115 Droits : 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00170/28115/26326.pdf DOI:10.1016/j.pocean.2013.12.006 http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00170/28115/ | Partager |
Wind-driven bottom currents and related sedimentary bodies in Lake Saint-Jean (Québec, Canada) Auteur(s) : Nutz, Alexis Schuster, M. Ghienne, J.-F. Roquin, C. Hay, M.B. Rétif, F. Certain, R. Robin, N. Auteurs secondaires : Institut de Physique du Globe de Strasbourg, UMR7516, Université de Strasbourg/EOST, CNRS, Strasbourg ; Institut de physique du globe de Strasbourg (IPGS) ; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS) - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS) Université du Québec [Chicoutimi] (UQAC) Géosciences Montpellier ; Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG) - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS) - Université de Montpellier (UM) - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Centre de Formation et de Recherche sur les Environnements Méditérranéens (CEFREM) ; Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD) - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Gladys;Insu / Artemis (LMC14) Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Geological Society of America Résumé : International audience Lakes are major depositional systems for which the related depositional processes have long been considered relatively simple. Breaking this statement, this study presents a detailed analysis of deposits in Lake Saint-Jean, the third largest natural lake in Québec. In addition to postglacial deltaic and coastal depositional systems fringing the lake, current-controlled features such as a large subaqueous prograding wedge and three sediment drifts have been identifi ed in its central portion based on two-dimensional (2-D) acoustic high-resolution subbottom profiles. The large subaqueous prograding wedge is a 4-km-long and up to 15-m-thick heterolithic shelf-like construction in the southeastern part of the lake. The three sediment drifts are 0.1–0.5-km-long and 2–5-mthick mud mounds distributed on the lake floor in the central portion of the lake. Diatom analyses and radiocarbon dating show that the development of these current-controlled features occurred during the lacustrine phase, after the disconnection with the postglacial marine Laflamme Gulf at 8.5 cal. k.y. B.P. Depositional facies show evidence of recurrent bottom-current activity. Related deposits alternate with pelagic sedimentation stages characterized by the settling of mud and biogenic accumulations. We investigated the origin of bottom currents using a numerical simulation (SYMPHONIE, an oceanographic model), with the aim of modeling wind-induced lake-scale water circulation. Simulations suggest that the subaqueous prograding wedge and the three sediment drifts result from wind-induced bottom currents generated by storm events having wind speed greater than 10 m s–1. Such strong winds are able to significantly affect sedimentation in the central portion of Lake Saint-Jean. Theresulting wind-induced sedimentary features were integrated into a refi ned lacustrine depositional model that summarizes the evolution of a group of water bodies referred to as “wind-driven water bodies.” This study applies a new tool for lake strata characterization and highlights the potential diffi cultyin differentiating them from marine deposits in the geological record. ISSN: 0016-7606 insu-01184724 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01184724 DOI : 10.1130/B31145.1 | Partager |
Détection satellitaire et modélisation opérationnelle de la production végétale non-fixée dans la bande côtière bretonne ; Remote sensing and operationnal modelling of non-fixed algal production on the French Brittany coastal shelf Auteur(s) : Penard, Cédric Éditeur(s) : Université de Bretagne Occidentale Résumé : The negative impact of the man on the environment unquestionably increases. The coastal environment as a whole is the maritime environment which is the most exposed to man-made eutrophication. For instance, nitrate loads to coastal waters off Brittany (France) have increased 10 times (from 3 to s 30mg L-1NO3) during the four last decades. Eutrophication of this coastal zone is now a recurrent problem, more and more worrying. This eutrophication exhibits two main forms : " green tides ", which are caused by local proliferations and stranding of green macro-algae (particularly the Ulva species) in nitrogen-enriched areas ; phytoplanktonic blooms, which are responsible for coloured water events, toxic species can be present (Pseudo-Nitzschia, Alexandrium, Dinophysis), and induce banning of shellfish consumption. The objectives of this study are to assess the respective role of various rivers (especially the Loire and the Vilaine) in the eutrophication of the Brittany shelf ecosystem and test the impact of nitrogen enrichment in the triggering of Pseudo-Nitzchia toxicity. For these purposes, a coupled hydrodynamical/ biogeochemical 3D model has been developed and validated against past measured time-series and satellite images. After a brief analysis of primary production over the Brittany shelf under different conditions, we show a description of the real time adaptation of this model. Daily results are currently presented in real time on www.previmer.org web site. The inability of the model to correctly simulate near shore phytoplankton is worsened in this model by the fact that the turbidity field used is a climatological one, made by satellite images averaged on a decadal basis. First, near shore pixels of satellite images are scarcely reliable, secondly a climatological mean cannot represent the sudden bursts or drops of the real turbidity, highly dependent on the actual sea-state : this can explain also why the model at this moment fails to reproduce a sudden bloom occurring in a short period of sunny and calm weather. The simulated Pseudo-Nitzschia biomass and induced risk of toxicity in the water column cannot really be validated offshore, because monitoring measurements are available only near the coast, and deal only with toxicity in benthic filter feeders. To get temporarily rid of that problem, an interesting improvement would be to add to the operational model the bio-accumulation of toxin in the shellfishes : simulated concentrations in shellfish fresh would become directly comparable with usual measurements of the monitoring networks. Our model points out the important impact of Loire river loads on the primary production on the western and southern Brittany. This result is crucial for administrations in charge of reducing the terrestrial loadings responsible for eutrophication, because it can delay reduction programs on small tributaries until the main input from the Loire has been significantly reduced. A question arises, about the reliability of the haline stratification in the model, because the horizontal extent of the Loire plume will be enhanced by a stronger stratification. L'eutrophisation des milieux marins côtiers, de plus en plus importante, représente un des impacts majeurs des activités humaines sur l'environnement. Les phénomènes d'eutrophisation sont en constante augmentation ; ces dernières décennies ont vu le nombre de sites touchés augmenter de par le monde. La bande côtière bretonne est particulièrement concernée par ce phénomène. L'eutrophisation s'y manifeste de deux façons : "Des phénomènes de marée vertes, très localisées, qui sont provoqués par la croissance excessive et l'échouage de macro-algues du genre Ulva dans ces zones riches en azote ; Des blooms de phytoplancton à l'origine des phénomènes d'eaux colorées, qui peuvent aussi provoquer des interdictions de consommation de coquillages lorsque les espèces mises en jeu sont toxiques (Pseudo-Nitzschia, Alexandrium, Dinophysis). L'objectif de ce travail est multiple : il vise à mettre en évidence et à comprendre l'impact et le rôle des apports en nutriments sur la production primaire et l'eutrophisation des milieux côtiers. Ce travail a aussi pour ambition l'identification et la compréhension des causes des phénomènes d'eutrophisation et permettre ainsi d'apporter des solutions ou des pistes d'amélioration. En n, il a aussi un objectif de prévision à court terme de l'état biologique sur la zone. Pour atteindre ces objectifs, un modèle en temps réel a été mis en oeuvre. Les résultats de simulations numériques et de mesures satellitaires sont présentés sur internet : www.previmer.org. L'outil principal de ce travail est un modèle couplé physique/biogéochimie. La partie hydrodynamique est fournie par le code Mars3D (3D hydrodynamical Model for Application at Regional Scale) développé à IFREMER. Au code hydrodynamique Mars3D est couplé le modèle des cycles de l'azote, du phosphore et du silicium d'IFREMER. Le modèle couplé permet de simuler en 3 dimensions et de manière dynamique les courants, le brassage horizontal et vertical, les champs de température et de salinité, mais aussi les principaux cycles de nutriments, reproduisant ainsi les conditions déterminantes de la production primaire. La croissance des algues est modélisée, et nous permet de voir l'influence des panaches de dilution des principales rivières bretonnes sur leur croissance. Les diffcultés du modèle à correctement simuler les concentrations en phytoplancton près des zones côtières, sont probablement dues à l'utilisation d'une climatologie de concentration en matière en suspension fondée sur des données satellitaires. Tout d'abord, les pixels côtiers des images satellitaires sont entachés d'erreurs, ensuite une climatologie n'est pas capable de représenter les apports soudains des fleuves lors des crues. Cela peut expliquer l'incapacité du modèle a représenter certains blooms liés à des périodes ensoleilées et calmes. A ce modèle de base nous avons ajouté un genre spécifique de phytoplancton : le genre Pseudo-Nitzschia. Certaines espèces de Pseudo-Nitzschia sont réputées toxiques. En effet, ce phytoplancton a la capacité de synthétiser une toxine : l'acide domoïque. Cette toxine est responsable du syndrome ASP (Amnesic Shellfish Poisoning). Le modèle reproduit globalement les mêmes zones de toxicité que les mesures du REPHY, et donne des résultats encourageants. L'étude montre que la Loire influence une large partie de la bande côtière bretonne ; son panache remonte jusqu'au nord de la mer d'Iroise, et contribue pour une grande part à l'enrichissement du sud et de l'ouest de la Bretagne. Le traçage de l'azote en provenance de la Loire au sein des cycles biogéochimiques nous a permis de quantifier cet enrichissement. Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00015/12603/9481.pdf http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00015/12603/ | Partager |
Simulation of Large Scale WSN for Medical Care Auteur(s) : Dessart, Nathalie Fouchal, Hacène Hunel, Philippe Rabat, Cyril Auteurs secondaires : Laboratoire de Mathématiques Informatique et Applications (LAMIA) ; Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG) Centre de Recherche en Sciences et Technologies de l'Information et de la Communication - EA 3804 (CRESTIC) ; Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne (URCA) Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Résumé : International audience The aim of this study is to perform a simulation of large scale Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) working on medical diagnosis. The main feature of this WSN is its density and the fact that all sensors are in the same radio range. Our approach helps medical staff to diagnose diseases in an automatic way. In this context, each patient is equipped to a set of sensors. Each sensor is connected to a transducer dedicated to measure a specific health parameter . This WSN will perform some computations and run an alarm when some diseases are suspected. This technique is based on the population protocol to handle data exchanged between sensors. This approach is in fact an efficient distributed algorithm which implies that the diagnose may be done by any sensor dealing with the disease detection. The main result of this paper is: the method supports large scalability which proves its practicability for real cases. Computers and Communications (ISCC), 2010 IEEE Symposium on Computers and Communications. Riccione, Italy hal-00519595 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00519595 | Partager |
Simulation of Large Spiking Neural Networks on Distributed Architectures, The "DAMNED" Simulator Auteur(s) : Mouraud, Anthony Puzenat, Didier Auteurs secondaires : Data Mining and Machine Learning (DM2L) ; Laboratoire d'InfoRmatique en Image et Systèmes d'information (LIRIS) ; Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon (INSA Lyon) - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL) - École Centrale de Lyon (ECL) - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 (UL2) - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon (INSA Lyon) - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL) - École Centrale de Lyon (ECL) - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 (UL2) Groupe de Recherche en Informatique et Mathématiques Appliquées Antilles-Guyane (GRIMAAG) ; Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG) Palmer-Brown, D. and Draganova, C. and Pimenidis, E. and Mouratidis, H. Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Springer Résumé : International audience This paper presents a spiking neural network simulator suitablefor biologically plausible large neural networks, named DAMNEDfor “Distributed And Multi-threaded Neural Event-Driven”. The simulatoris designed to run efficiently on a variety of hardware. DAMNEDmakes use of multi-threaded programming and non-blocking communicationsin order to optimize communications and computations overlap.This paper details the even-driven architecture of the simulator. Someoriginal contributions are presented, such as the handling of a distributedvirtual clock and an efficient circular event queue taking into accountspike propagation delays. DAMNED is evaluated on a cluster of computersfor networks from 103 to 105 neurons. Simulation and networkcreation speedups are presented. Finally, scalability is discussed regardingnumber of processors, network size and activity of the simulated NN. Engineering Applications of Neural Networks: 11th International Conference, EANN 2009 London, United Kingdom hal-01437753 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01437753 DOI : 10.1007/978-3-642-03969-0_33 | Partager |
INFLUENCE OF GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION TYPICAL DAYS ON FORECASTING MODELS ERROR Auteur(s) : Soubdhan, Ted Voyant, Cyril Lauret, Philippe Auteurs secondaires : Laboratoire de Recherche en Géosciences et Énergies (LaRGE) ; Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG) Sciences pour l'environnement (SPE) ; Université Pascal Paoli (UPP) - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Physique et Ingénierie Mathématique pour l'Énergie, l'environnemeNt et le bâtimenT (PIMENT) ; Université de la Réunion (UR) Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Résumé : International audience In this work, we have led an analysis of the error of different global solar radiation prediction models according to the global solar radiation variability. Different predictions models where performed such as machine learning techniques (Neural Networks, Gaussian processes and support vector machines) in order to forecast the Global Horizontal solar Irradiance (GHI). We also include in this study a simple linear autoregressive (AR) model as well as two naive models based on persistence of the GHI and persistence of the clear sky index (denoted herein scaled persistence model). The models are calibrated and tested with data from three 3 French islands: Corsica (42.15°N ; 9.08°E), Guadeloupe (16.25°N ; 61.58°W) and Reunion (21.15°S ; 55.5°E). Guadeloupe and Reunion are located in a subtropical climatic zone whereas Corsica is in a tempered climatic zone. Hence the global solar radiation variation differs significantly. The output error of the different models was quantified by the nRSME. In order to quantify the influence of the global solar radiation variability on the forecasting models error we performed a classification of typical days according to different typical days. Each class of typical day is defined by a variation of global solar radiation rate. For each class and for each location, the selected forecasting models where performed and the error was quantified. With this analysis a global solar radiation forecasting models can be selected according to the location, the global solar radiation fluctuations and hence the meteorological conditions. INTRODUCTION Large and frequent variations of solar radiation can be observed in tropical climates with amplitudes reaching 800 W/m² and occurring within a short time interval, from few seconds to few minutes, according to the geographical location. Such fluctuations can be due for example to the dynamic of clouds which can be very complex and depend on cloud type, size, speed and spatial distribution and, more generally, due to some specific local meteorological conditions. Thus, the solar energy forecasting, a process used to predict the amount of solar energy available in the current and near terms, might be a difficult task. Some of the best predictors found in literature are Autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) [5,7,8], Bayesian inferences [9,10], Markov chains [11], k-Nearest-Neighbors predictors [12] or artificial intelligence techniques as the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) [9-11]. Although these methodologies are potentially good in many areas, we observed in our previous studies on global radiation prediction [9,13,14] that the simple model based on the persistence of the clear sky index gives often very good results with acceptable errors [15] for short term forecasting time horizon (<= 1 hour). The goal of this paper is to determinate the influence of solar radiation variability regarding different classes of days on the expected error provided by different forecasting methods that the modeller can possibly implement. The paper is organized as follow: Section 2 describes the data we have used. Section 3 exposes the classification methodology and the results obtained for the three studied locations. In the two following sections, the forecasting methods are exposed and then 3 the errors on the forecasting results for each location and for each class are exposed. The Third Southern African Solar Energy Conference (SASEC2015) Kruger National Park, South Africa Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess hal-01099487 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01099487 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01099487/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01099487/file/article%20SASEC.pdf | Partager |
Rheological heterogeneity, mechanical anisotropy and deformation of the continental lithosphere Auteur(s) : Vauchez, Alain Tommasi, Andrea Barruol, Guilhem Auteurs secondaires : Laboratoire de Tectonophysique (Tectonophysique) ; Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques (UM2) - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS) - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Géosciences Montpellier ; Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG) - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS) - Université de Montpellier (UM) - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier Résumé : International audience This paper aims to present an overview on the influence of rheological heterogeneity and mechanical anisotropy on the deformation of continents. After briefly recapping the concept of rheological stratification of the lithosphere, we discuss two specific issues: (1) as supported by a growing body of geophysical and geological observations, crust=mantle mechanical coupling is usually efficient, especially beneath major transcurrent faults which probably crosscut the lithosphere and root within the sublithospheric mantle; and (2) in most geodynamic environments, mechanical properties of the mantle govern the tectonic behaviour of the lithosphere. Lateral rheological heterogeneity of the continental lithosphere may result from various sources, with variations in geothermal gradient being the principal one. The oldest domains of continents, the cratonic nuclei, are characterized by a relatively cold, thick, and consequently stiff lithosphere. On the other hand, rifting may also modify the thermal structure of the lithosphere. Depending on the relative stretching of the crust and upper mantle, a stiff or a weak heterogeneity may develop. Observations from rift domains suggest that rifting usually results in a larger thinning of the lithospheric mantle than of the crust, and therefore tends to generate a weak heterogeneity. Numerical models show that during continental collision, the presence of both stiff and weak rheological heterogeneities significantly influences the large-scale deformation of the continental lithosphere. They especially favour the development of lithospheric-scale strike-slip faults, which allow strain to be transferred between the heterogeneities. An heterogeneous strain partition occurs: cratons largely escape deformation, and strain tends to localize within or at the boundary of the rift basins provided compressional deformation starts before the thermal heterogeneity induced by rifting are compensated. Seismic and electrical conductivity anisotropies consistently point towards the existence of a coherent fabric in the lithospheric mantle beneath continental domains. Analysis of naturally deformed peridotites, experimental deformations and numerical simulations suggest that this fabric is developed during orogenic events and subsequently frozen in the lithospheric mantle. Because the mechanical properties of single-crystal olivine are anisotropic, i.e. dependent on the orientation of the applied forces relative to the dominant slip systems, a pervasive fabric frozen in the mantle may induce a significant mechanical anisotropy of the whole lithospheric mantle. It is suggested that this mechanical anisotropy is the source of the so-called tectonic inheritance, i.e. the systematic reactivation of ancient tectonic directions; it may especially explain preferential rift propagation and continental break-up along pre-existing orogenic belts. Thus, the deformation of continents during orogenic events results from a trade-off between tectonic forces applied at plate boundaries, plate geometry, and the intrinsic properties (rheological heterogeneity and mechanical anisotropy) of the continental plates. ISSN: 0040-1951 hal-01389719 http://hal.univ-reunion.fr/hal-01389719 http://hal.univ-reunion.fr/hal-01389719/document http://hal.univ-reunion.fr/hal-01389719/file/vauchez_etal_rheology_1998_hal.pdf DOI : 10.1016/S0040-1951(98)00137-1 | Partager |
Le suivi de l'état des récifs coralliens de Polynésie Française et leur récente évolution Auteur(s) : Salvat, B Aubanel, A Adjeroud, M Bouisset, P Calmet, D Chancerelle, Y Cochennec, Nathalie Davies, N Éditeur(s) : Société Nationale de Protection de la Nature Résumé : Monitoring of French Polynesia coral reefs and their recent development.-French Polynesia, consisting of 118 islands in the centre of the Pacific Ocean, has more than 15 000 km(2) of reefs and lagoons managed by the local government. Tourism and pearl culture are the two main economic resources of the country. Polynesian coral reefs are extremely diverse and are among those for which we have thorough knowledge. The exploitation of local resources has been recorded for multiple decades and includes : coral materials, fishing, harvest and export of mother-of-pearl molluscs, pearl production, and ornamental fish. All over the country, many monitoring programmes have been launched to measure the health of reefs and the natural and anthropogenic perturbations that they suffer : hurricanes and seismic events, water quality, health of benthic and fish communities, pearl oyster pathology and radiobiology. These data, collected over the last few decades, allowed to define the relative importance of natural and anthropogenic degradation on reefs and lagoons, and to explain the present status of reefs at different spatial scales. Devastating hurricanes are rare (1903-1906, 1982-1983 and occasionally at other times), but they may annihilate outer slope coral communities on some islands. Bleaching events with considerable coral mortality at different geographical scales occurred mainly in 1991, 1994 and 2003. Outbreaks of Acanthaster destroyed numerous reefs (lagoons and outer slopes) from 1978-1982 and a new demographic wave began in 2006 at many Society islands. Eutrophication events only occurred occasionally and only in some lagoons. Whereas natural catastrophic events degrade the coral reef ecosystem across many islands, at the archipelago or even regional scale, anthropogenic degradation is limited to a few Society Islands, occurring rarely on atolls and not at all on those (one third) which are uninhabited. The main causes of reef degradation in some areas of Tahiti and Moorea include the embankment of fringing zones, coral mining, overfishing, absence of urban sewage treatment and the development of leisure and tourism activities. Because of its large geographical extent, one may conclude that major reef degradation in French Polynesia is caused by catastrophic natural events. On the other hand, anthropogenic degradation is more localized. Unfortunately, the synergistic effects of these causes of degradation prevent reefs from recovering. Optimum coral cover on French Polynesian outer reef slopes is between 50-60%. After a major destructive impact (hurricane, bleaching, Acanthaster) a reef is reduced to less than 10% coral cover, however if no more major disturbance events occur a reef will recover in about 12 years. Most of the 15 000 km(2) of reefs and lagoons in French Polynesia are in good health, and along with their neighbouring reefs in East and Central Pacific they are considered as the least degraded reefs worldwide and at a low risk of becoming degraded in the few next decades. However, we are more and more anxious about the future of reefs in the world particularly because present simulations predict that major impacts of climate change would include : elevation of sea surface temperatures, increase in the strength of hurricanes and acidification of seawater which will affect the formation of coral structures. La Polynésie française, 118 îles au coeur du Pacifique, possède une surface de plus de 15 000 km2 de récifs et lagons gérés par le gouvernement polynésien. Le tourisme et la perliculture représentent les deux ressources économiques majeures du Pays. Les formations récifales très diversifiées sont parmi les mieux connues. Plusieurs suivis d'exploitation des ressources sont opérationnels depuis des décennies : granulats coralliens, pêche pour l'alimentation, collecte et exportation de mollusques nacriers, production de perles, poissons d'ornement. À l'échelle du Pays de très nombreux programmes de surveillance de l'état des récifs et des perturbations qu'ils subissent, naturelles et anthropiques, ont été mis en place : perturbations cycloniques et sismiques, qualité des eaux, état de santé des peuplements benthiques et ichtyologiques, pathologie des nacres, radiobiologie. Toutes ces données recueillies au fi l des décennies ont permis d'établir l'importance relative des dégradations naturelles et anthropiques sur les récifs et lagons polynésiens et d'expliquer leur état de santé actuel en considérant différentes échelles spatiales. Les périodes cycloniques dévastatrices pour les récifs sont rares (1903-1906, 1982-1983 et épisodiquement) mais les cyclones ont parfois anéanti les communautés coralliennes de pentes externes dans certaines îles. Les blanchissements suivis de mortalités importantes à des échelles spatiales diverses, ont été surtout ceux de 1991, 1994 et 2003. Les explosions démographiques d'Acanthaster ont détruit de nombreux récifs (lagons et pentes externes) en 1978-1982 et une nouvelle pullulation s'amplifie depuis 2006 dans plusieurs îles de la Société. Les crises dystrophiques n'ont perturbé qu'épisodiquement certains lagons. [...] Revue d'Ecologie de la Terre et de la Vie (0249-7395) (Société Nationale de Protection de la Nature), 2008 , Vol. 63 , N. 1-2 , P. 145-177 Droits : 2008 Société Nationale de Protection de la Nature http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2008/publication-4558.pdf http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/4558/ | Partager |
Estimating tropical tree diversity indices from forestry surveys: a method to integrate taxonomic uncertainty Auteur(s) : Guitet, Stéphane Sabatier, Daniel Brunaux, Olivier Herault, Bruno Aubry-Kientz, Melaine Molino, Jean-François Baraloto, Christopher Auteurs secondaires : Botanique et Modélisation de l'Architecture des Plantes et des Végétations (UMR AMAP) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (CIRAD) - Institut national de la recherche agronomique [Montpellier] (INRA Montpellier) - Université de Montpellier (UM) - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]) Office National des Forêts (ONF) Ecologie des forêts de Guyane (ECOFOG) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (CIRAD) - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA) - Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG) - AgroParisTech - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier Résumé : Analyses of tree diversity and community composition in tropical rain forests are usually based either on general herbarium data or on a restricted number of botanical plots. Despite their high taxonomic accuracy, both types of data are difficult to extrapolate to landscape scales. Meanwhile, forestry surveys provide quantitative occurrence data on large areas, and are thus increasingly used for landscape-scale analyses of tree diversity. However, the reliability of these approaches has been challenged because of the ambiguity of the common (vernacular) names used by foresters and the complexity of tree taxonomy in those hyper-diverse communities.We developed and tested a novel approach to evaluate taxonomic reliability of forestry surveys and to propagate the resulting uncertainty in the estimates of several diversity indicators (alpha and beta entropy, Fisher-alpha and Sørensen similarity). Our approach is based on Monte-Carlo processes that simulate communities by taking into account the expected accuracy and reliability of common names. We tested this method in French Guiana, on 9 one-hectare plots (4279 trees – DBH ⩾ 10 cm) for which both common names and standardized taxonomic determinations were available. We then applied our method of community simulation on large forestry inventories (560 ha) at the landscape scale and compared the diversity indices obtained for 10 sites with those computed from precise botanical determination situated at the same localities.We found that taxonomic reliability of forestry inventories varied from 22% (species level) to 83% (family level) in this Amazonian region. Indices computed directly with raw forestry data resulted in incorrect values, except for Gini–Simpson beta-diversity. On the contrary, our correction method provides more accurate diversity estimates, highly correlated with botanical measurements, for almost all diversity indices at both regional and local scales. We obtained a robust ranking of sites consistent with those shown by botanical inventories.These results show that (i) forestry inventories represent a significant part of taxonomic information, (ii) the relative diversity of regional sites can be successfully ranked using forestry inventory data using our method and (iii) forestry inventories can valuably contribute to the detection of large-scale diversity patterns when biases are well-controlled and corrected.The tools we developed as R-functions are available in supplementary material and can be adapted with local parameters to be used for forest management and conservation issues in other regional contexts ISSN: 0378-1127 hal-01204219 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01204219 DOI : 10.1016/j.foreco.2014.05.045 PRODINRA : 286554 | Partager |
Hypercanes: A possible link in global extinction scenarios Auteur(s) : Emanuel, Kerry A Speer, Kevin Rotunno, Richard Srivastava, Ramesh Molina, Mario Éditeur(s) : Amer Geophysical Union Résumé : Bolide impacts and large-scale volcanic eruptions have been proposed as possible causes of the massive extinction of life that has occurred episodically in Earth's history. In spite of the catastrophic disruption of the local environment that accompanies bolide impacts and volcanic eruptions, it has been difficult to explain why these events sometimes lead to global extinction of species. We propose that, in some cases, the missing link may be provided by hypercanes, runaway hurricanes that are capable of injecting massive amounts of water and aerosols into the middle and upper stratosphere, where they may have profound effects on atmospheric chemistry and radiative transfer. Hypercanes are theorized to occur when the sea surface temperature exceeds a critical threshold, which may occur when sea water is locally heated by bolide impact, shallow-sea volcanism, or possibly, by overturning of superheated brine pools formed by underwater volcanic activity. Simulations using a convection-resolving nonhydrostatic, axisymmetric numerical model show that hypercanes can indeed develop when the sea surface temperature is high, and that they inject large amounts of mass into the stratosphere. Journal Of Geophysical Research-atmospheres (2169-897X) (Amer Geophysical Union), 1995-07 , Vol. 100 , N. D7 , P. 13755-13765 Droits : 1995 by the American Geophysical Union. http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00258/36966/35611.pdf DOI:10.1029/95JD01368 http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00258/36966/ | Partager |
Does the disturbance hypothesis explain the biomass increase in basin-wide Amazon forest plot data? Auteur(s) : Gloor, M. Phillips, Oliver L. Lloyd, J.J. Lewis, Simon L. Malhi, Yadvinder Baker, T.R. Lopez-Gonzales, G. Peacock, J. Auteurs secondaires : Ecologie des forêts de Guyane (ECOFOG) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (CIRAD) - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA) - Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG) - AgroParisTech - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Ecologie et Ecophysiologie Forestières (EEF) ; Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA) - Université de Lorraine (UL) UMR5174 Evolution et diversité biologique (EDB) ; Université Paul Sabatier - Toulouse 3 (UPS) Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley Résumé : Positive aboveground biomass trends have been reported from old-growth forests across the Amazon basin and hypothesized to reflect a large-scale response to exterior forcing. The result could, however, be an artefact due to a sampling bias induced by the nature of forest growth dynamics. Here, we characterize statistically the disturbance process in Amazon old-growth forests as recorded in 135 forest plots of the RAINFOR network up to 2006, and other independent research programmes, and explore the consequences of sampling artefacts using a data-based stochastic simulator. Over the observed range of annual aboveground biomass losses, standard statistical tests show that the distribution of biomass losses through mortality follow an exponential or near-identical Weibull probability distribution and not a power law as assumed by others. The simulator was parameterized using both an exponential disturbance probability distribution as well as a mixed exponential-power law distribution to account for potential large-scale blowdown events. In both cases, sampling biases turn out to be too small to explain the gains detected by the extended RAINFOR plot network. This result lends further support to the notion that currently observed biomass gains for intact forests across the Amazon are actually occurring over large scales at the current time, presumably as a response to climate change. ISSN: 1354-1013 hal-01032162 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01032162 DOI : 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01891.x | Partager |
Interactive effects of three pervasive marine stressorsin a post-disturbance coral reef Auteur(s) : Gil, Michael A Goldenberg, Silvan U. Thai Bach, Anne ly Mills, Suzanne C Claudet, Joachim Auteurs secondaires : Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management [Berkeley] (ESPM) ; University of California [Berkeley] Department of Biology ; University of Florida [Gainesville] Centre de recherches insulaires et observatoire de l'environnement (CRIOBE) ; Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD) - École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Southern Seas Ecology Laboratories ; University of Adelaide Laboratoire d'Excellence CORAIL (LabEX CORAIL) ; Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD) - Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG) - École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS) - École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER) - Université de la Réunion (UR) - Université de la Polynésie Française (UPF) - Université de Nouvelle Calédonie - Institut d'écologie et environnement Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Springer Verlag Résumé : International audience Ecosystems are commonly affected by natural, episodic disturbances that can abruptly and drastically alter communities. Although it has been shown that resilient ecosystems can eventually recover to pre-disturbed states, the extent to which communities in early stages of recovery could be affected by multiple anthropogenic stressors is poorly understood. Pervasive and rising anthropogenic stressors in coastal marine systems that could interactively affect the recovery of these systems following natural disturbances include high sedimentation, nutrient enrichment, and overfishing. Using a 6-month field experiment, we examined the effects of all combinations of these three stressors on key functional groups in the benthic community growing on simulated, post-disturbance reef patches within a system recovering from large-scale natural disturbances (corallivorous seastar outbreak and cyclone). Our study revealed that sedimentation, nutrient enrichment, and overfishing (simulated using exclusion cages) interactively affected coral survival and algal growth, with taxon-specific effects at multiple scales. First, our treatments affected corals and algae differently, with sedimentation being more detrimental to macroalgal growth but less detrimental to coral (Porites rus) survival in caged plots, driving significant interactions between sedimentation and caging for both taxa. We also observed distinct responses between coral species and between algal functional groups, with the most extensive responses from algal turf biomass, for which sedimentation suppressed the synergistic (positive) combined effect of nutrient enrichment and caging. Our findings suggest that different combinations of ubiquitous anthropogenic stressors, related to either sea- or land-based activities, interactively influence community recovery from disturbance and may alter species compositions in the resulting community. Our findings further suggest that anthropogenic stressors could promote further degradation of coral reefs following natural disturbances by inhibiting recovery to coral-dominated states that provide vital ecosystem services to coastal populations worldwide. ISSN: 0722-4028 hal-01430977 https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01430977 DOI : 10.1007/s00338-016-1489-x | Partager |