Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : International audience
1. Estimating forest above-ground biomass (AGB), or carbon (AGC), in tropical forests has become a majorconcern for scientists and stakeholders. However, AGB assessment procedures are not fully standardized andeven more importantly the uncertainty associated with AGB estimates is seldom assessed.2. Here, we present an R package designed to compute both AGB/AGC estimate and its associated uncertaintyfrom forest plot datasets, using a Bayesian inference procedure. The package builds upon previous work onpantropical and regional biomass allometric equations and published datasets by default but it can alsointegrate unpublished or complementary datasets in many steps.3. BIOMASS performs a number of standard tasks on input forest tree inventories: i) tree speciesidentification, if available, is automatically corrected; ii) wood density is estimated from tree species identity;iii) if height data are available, a local height-diameter allometry may be built; else height is inferred frompantropical or regional models; iv) finally, AGB/AGC are estimated by propagating the errors associated withall the calculation steps up to the final estimate. R code is given in the paper and in the appendix forillustration purpose.4. The BIOMASS package should contribute to improved standards for AGB calculation for tropical foreststands, and will encourage users to report the uncertainties associated with stand-level AGB/AGC estimatesin future studies.
ISSN: 2041-210X

hal-01558180
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01558180
DOI : 10.1111/2041-210X.12753

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : The allocation and cycling of carbon (C) within forests is an important component of the biospheric C cycle, but is particularly understudied within tropical forests. We synthesise reported and unpublished results from three lowland rainforest sites in Amazonia (in the regions of Manaus, Tapajos and Caxiuana), all major sites of the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Programme (LBA). We attempt a comprehensive synthesis of the C stocks, nutrient status and, particularly, the allocation and internal C dynamics of all three sites. The calculated net primary productivities (NPP) are 10.1 +/- 1.4 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) (Manaus), 14.4 +/- 1.3 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) (Tapajos) and 10.0 +/- 1.2 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) (Caxiuana). All errors bars report standard errors. Soil and leaf nutrient analyses indicate that Tapajos has significantly more plant-available phosphorus and calcium. Autotrophic respiration at all three sites (14.9-21.4 Mg C ha yr(-1)) is more challenging to measure, with the largest component and greatest source of uncertainty being leaf dark respiration. Comparison of measured soil respiration with that predicted from C cycling measurements provides an independent constraint. It shows general good agreement at all three sites, with perhaps some evidence for measured soil respiration being less than expected. Twenty to thirty percent of fixed C is allocated belowground. Comparison of gross primary productivity (GPP), derived from ecosystem flux measurements with that derived from component studies (NPP plus autotrophic respiration) provides an additional crosscheck. The two approaches are in good agreement, giving increased confidence in both approaches to estimating GPP. The ecosystem carbon-use efficiency (CUEs), the ratio of NPP to GPP, is similar at Manaus (0.34 +/- 0.10) and Caxiuana (0.32 +/- 0.07), but may be higher at Tapajos (0.49 +/- 0.16), although the difference is not significant. Old growth or infertile tropical forests may have low CUE compared with recently disturbed and/or fertile forests.
ISSN: 1354-1013

hal-01032150
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01032150
DOI : 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01780.x

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
Radiocarbon dating and "old wood problem" in the Antilles : the state of the artAmong the many effects that may distort the interpretation of radiocarbon dates are those for which the age of the archaeological event is different from the radiocarbon age of the sample or "14C event" age. This type of problem arises in many cases, notably in the "old wood effect”, and occurs in various regions of the world where very long-lived trees species are common. In the Caribbean anthracological studies indicate a very high frequency of some indigenous centuries-old species such as Guaiacum, Guaiacum officinale L. However the absence of tree-ring data in humid tropical zones deprives us of an accurate inventory of long-lived species and especially the assessment of their longevity. Here we present measurements which enable us to estimate the longevity of archaeological Guaiacum wood posts. They highlight a gap of several centuries between wood from the outer edge and the heart of the tree. This example illustrates the additional uncertainty that can result from dating archeological events when dates are realized on unidentified botanical species from which the area that was sampled is unknown. Another source of error could arise from the use of rot-proof dead wood as fuel if we take into consideration that major hurricanes can produce large amounts of dead wood that may be collected for decades, even centuries. To improve chronometric data used in archaeological interpretations, it is necessary to ensure the quality of the dating process by following a protocol similar to those used in other regions of the world based on a better understanding of the material to be dated by preliminary identifications of wood samples: species, anatomical part, wood moisture content (unseasoned or seasoned).
Radiocarbono y "problema madera vieja", que data de las Antillas: estado del arteEntre los muchos efectos que pueden distorsionar la interpretación de fechas de radiocarbono, destacan aquellos para los que la edad de la prueba arqueológica es diferente de la edad de radiocarbono de la muestra, o la edad del "evento de radiocarbono." Este tipo de problema se presenta en muchos casos, especialmente uno llamado "efecto madera vieja." Esto se refleja en diversas regiones del mundo donde las especies de plantas de mucha longevidad son comunes. En el Caribe, los estudios antracológicos disponibles indican una muy alta frecuencia de algunas especies autóctonas como el guayaco, Guaiacum officinale L. Sin embargo, la casi ausencia de datos de anillos de árboles en los trópicos húmedos, nos impide realizar un inventario exacto de especies de mucha longevidad y sobre todo la evaluación de la longevidad. Algunas de las pruebas presentadas aquí permitieron una estimación de la longevidad de de unos postes de guayaco de origen arqueológico. Ponen de manifiesto una brecha de varios siglos entre las partes externas y el corazón del tronco. Este ejemplo ilustra la aparición de una incertidumbre adicional en la datación de los eventos arqueológicos cuando no conocemos la especie botánica y tampoco la zona de la muestra en el árbol. Otra fuente de error puede surgir de la utilización de la madera muerta de calidad duradera como combustible ya que los grandes huracanes pueden producir grandes cantidades de madera muerta, que puede ser requerida durante décadas, incluso siglos. Para mejorar los datos cronométricos utilizados en interpretaciones arqueológicas, es necesario asegurarse de la calidad de las fechas, y por lo tanto seguir un protocolo similar a los utilizados en otras regiones fundado en una mejor comprensión de los elementos: especie, parte anatómica, humedad de la madera usada (verde o seco).
Parmi les nombreux effets susceptibles de fausser l’interprétation des datations par le radiocarbone, figurent ceux pour lesquels l’âge de l’événement archéologique est différent de l’âge radiocarbone de l’échantillon, ou âge de l’« événement radiocarbone ». Ce type de problème se pose dans de nombreux cas, en particulier celui dénommé « effet vieux bois ». Cette question est prise en compte dans diverses régions du monde où des espèces végétales très longévives sont fréquentes. Dans les Antilles les études anthracologiques disponibles indiquent une fréquence très importante de certaines espèces autochtones multiséculaires dont le gaïac, Guaiacum officinale L.. Cependant, la quasi absence de données dendrochronologiques dans la zone tropicale humide, nous privent d’un inventaire précis des espèces longévives et surtout de l’évaluation de leur longévité. Quelques tests présentés ici ont permis une estimation de la longévité de poteaux d’origine archéologique en bois de gaïac. Ils mettent en évidence un décalage de plusieurs siècles entre les parties externes et le cœur du tronc. Cet exemple illustre l’apparition d’une incertitude supplémentaire dans la datation de l’événement archéologique lorsque que l’on ne connaît ni l’espèce botanique ni la zone de prélèvement dans l’arbre. Une autre source d’erreur pourrait provenir de l’utilisation de bois mort de qualité très durable comme combustible, sachant que les grands cyclones peuvent produire d’importantes quantités de bois mort susceptible d’être récolté pendant des décennies, voire des siècles. Afin d’améliorer les données chronologiques utilisées dans les interprétations archéologiques, il apparaît nécessaire de s’assurer de la qualité des datations, et donc de suivre un protocole similaire à ceux utilisés dans d’autres régions basé sur une meilleure connaissance des éléments datés : espèce, partie anatomique, humidité du bois utilisé (vert ou sec).
Puerto Rico 2013 : Actas del 25to Congreso Internacional de Arqueología del Caribe - Proceeding of the 25th International Congress for Caribbean Archeology - Comptes rendus des communications du 25e Congrés International de l'Archéologie de la Caraïbe
San-Juan, Puerto Rico

hal-01198567
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01198567
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01198567/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01198567/file/Stouvenot%20et%20al.%202015.%20Effet%20vieux%20bois%20radiocarbone%20Antilles%20HD.pdf

Éditeur(s) : NRC
Résumé : Universal kriging was used to model the spatio-temporal variability in the acoustic density of tuna aggregations recorded during star echosounding surveys around moored fish aggregating devices (FADs) in Martinique (Lesser Antilles). The large-scale deterministic drift in the tuna spatial distribution was modeled using an advection-diffusion equation applied to animal grouping. Residuals from the drift were modeled as a random component with small-scale spatial correlation. An estimation variance formula was derived from this deterministic-statistical mixed model to assess the mean precision of density estimates of daytime tuna aggregation. The mean relative error obtained with our star design for daytime surveys was 24%. The methodology was applied to estimate daily maxima of tuna biomass around moored FADs during four monthly sea cruises. The daily peak of tuna biomass aggregated around moored FADs was 9 t on average (standard deviation = 4). Estimation variances for different survey designs were compared for optimizing sampling strategy.
La distribution spatiale d'agrégations de thons autour de dispositifs de concentration de poissons (DCP) ancrés a été étudiée en Martinique (Petites Antilles) au moyen de parcours acoustiques en étoile. Les densités acoustiques géoréférencées attribuées aux thons ont été analysées à l'aide d'un modèle de krigeage universel. Une tendance à large échelle a été identifiée dans la distribution spatiale des thons. Cette tendance a été modélisée de façon déterministe au moyen d'une équation d'advection–diffusion appliquée aux groupes d'animaux. Les résidus de la tendance ont été modélisés comme une composante aléatoire du modèle, spatialement corrélée à faible échelle. De ce modèle, qui contenant une composante déterministe et une composante statistique, a été déduite une formule permettant de calculer la variance d'estimation de la densité diurne moyenne de l'agrégation de thons autour des DCP. L'erreur relative moyenne commise sur l'estimation de la densité de thons lors d'un parcours en étoile diurne a été estimée à 24 %. Cette méthode a été appliquée afin d'estimer les maxima journaliers de biomasse de l'agrégation de thons observés lors de quatre campagnes en mer mensuelles successives autour des DCP ancrés. La biomasse maximale de thons agrégée autour des DCP ancrés durant une phase diurne était en moyenne de 9 t (écart type : 4). Les variances d'estimation obtenues avec différents parcours acoustiques ont été comparées afin d'optimiser la stratégie d'échantillonnage.
Canadian journal of fisheries and aquatic sciences (0706-652X) (NRC), 2008-06 , Vol. 65 , N. 6 , P. 1193-1205

Droits : 2008 National Research Council Canada
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2008/publication-4559.pdf
DOI:10.1139/F08-050
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/4559/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
In this paper, we describe a blood alcohol content estimation prototype based on a comportment analysis performed by artificial neural networks. We asked to subjects that had drunk alcohol to play a video-game after having measured their blood alcohol content with a breathalyser. A racing game was modified so that it could provide various data related to the use of the controls by the player. Using the collected data, we trained our neural network in order to be able to determine whether or not the subject had exceeded a blood alcohol content threshold. We also succeeded in estimating this blood alcohol content with a mean error of 0.1g/l. We could perform those estimations independently of the track played among the two ones used. It was also performed in "real time", e.g., using only the data collected within the last 10 seconds of playing.
Proceedings of the 2011 International Conference on Advances in Computer-Human Interactions
Gosier, Guadeloupe

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
hal-00849971
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00849971
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00849971/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00849971/file/article.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD MDPI
Résumé : International audience
Satellite precipitation products are a means of estimating rainfall, particularly in areas that are sparsely equipped with rain gauges. The Guiana Shield is a region vulnerable to high water episodes. Flood risk is enhanced by the concentration of population living along the main rivers. A good understanding of the regional hydro-climatic regime, as well as an accurate estimation of precipitation is therefore of great importance. Unfortunately, there are very few rain gauges available in the region. The objective of the study is then to compare satellite rainfall estimation products in order to complement the information available in situ and to perform a regional analysis of four operational precipitation estimates, by partitioning the whole area under study into a homogeneous hydro-climatic region. In this study, four satellite products have been tested, TRMM TMPA (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis) V7 (Version 7) and RT (real time), CMORPH (Climate Prediction Center (CPC) MORPHing technique) and PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely-Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Network), for daily rain gauge data. Product performance is evaluated at daily and monthly scales based on various intensities and hydro-climatic regimes from 1 January 2001 to 30 December 2012 and using quantitative statistical criteria (coefficient correlation, bias, relative bias and root mean square error) and quantitative error metrics (probability of detection for rainy days and for no-rain days and the false alarm ratio). Over the entire study period, all products underestimate precipitation. The results obtained in terms of the hydro-climate show that for areas with intense convective precipitation, TMPA V7 shows a better performance than other products, especially in the estimation of extreme precipitation events. In regions along the Amazon, the use of PERSIANN is better. Finally, in the driest areas, TMPA V7 and PERSIANN show the same performance.
ISSN: 2072-4292

Droits : http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/licences/copyright/
hal-01257912
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01257912
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01257912/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01257912/file/remotesensing-07-15831.pdf
DOI : 10.3390/rs71215831

Éditeur(s) : Université des Antilles Études caribéennes
Résumé : L’application de modèles macro-économiques à l’analyse et la conception de politique économique ainsi qu’à la maitrise des déséquilibres macro-économiques est encore à un stade précoce dans les petits états insulaires en développement. La présente étude tente de combler cette lacune en proposant un modèle macro-économique applicable à chacun de ces territoires et destiné à l’analyse, la prévision et l’impact de chocs sur leurs économies. La Dominique, petit État insulaire en développement de la Caraïbe, a été choisie comme étude de cas pour un tel exercice. Ce modèle s’appuie sur les techniques analytiques de la cointégration et du modèle à correction d’erreur. Les équations du modèle sont spécifiées et leur performance prévisionnelle évaluée. Une fois élaboré et estimé, ce modèle est ensuite utilisé à des simulations de chocs issues de scénarios alternatifs afin de fournir des enseignements sur la trajectoire future des principales variables économiques de ce pays. L’un des principaux scénarios de l’étude consiste à déterminer le taux de croissance économique que la Dominique devrait cibler pour atteindre l’objectif de réduction de la pauvreté de moitié d’ici à 2015 et ce, conformément aux Objectifs du millénaire pour le développement (OMD), et de déterminer la politique budgétaire et monétaire compatible avec cet objectif. Enfin, l’intérêt d’une telle étude réside dans le fait qu’elle peut servir à réaliser les cadrages macro-économiques des stratégies de réduction de la pauvreté. Sa flexibilité peut en faire un instrument de décloisonnement administratif, favorisant ainsi la discussion avec toutes les parties prenantes de l’élaboration des politiques économiques.
The application of macroeconomic models to analyse and conceptualize the economic policy, as well as controlling macroeconomic imbalances, is still at an early stage in small islands developing states. This article tries to fill in this gap by proposing a macroeconomic model for analyzing, forecasting, and testing the effects of shocks to the economy, applicable for each of these territories. The case of Dominica, a small island developing state of Caribbean area, has been approched. This model draws on the analytical techniques of cointegration and error correction. The single equations are specified and their forecasting performance is assessed. Then, the model is constructed and shock simulations are performed and different scenarios are developed to give further insight in the future path of the main economic variables.One of the main scenarios of this study will determine in comparison of Millennium development goals (MDG), the economic growth rate of Dominica which would help to attain the objective of reduction poverty in half by 2015, as well as the fiscal and monetary policy compatible with this goal. Finally, it helps to make macroeconomic frameworks for strategy reduction of poverty. Its flexibility serves to aid the discussion with all parties.

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
urn:doi:10.4000/etudescaribeennes.6283
http://journals.openedition.org/etudescaribeennes/6283

Éditeur(s) : Amer Meteorological Soc
Résumé : A method to estimate mass and heat transports across hydrographic sections using hydrography together with altimetry data in a geostrophic box inverse model is presented. Absolute surface velocities computed from AVISO altimetry products made up of a combination of sea surface height measurements and geoid estimate are first compared to Ship Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (S-ADCP) measurements of the Ovide project along hydrographic sections repeated every 2 years in summer from Portugal to Greenland. The rms difference between S-ADCP and altimetry velocities averaged on distances of about a hundred km accounts to 3.3 cm s−1. Considering that the uncertainty of S-ADCP velocities is found at 1.5 cm s−1, altimetry errors are estimated at 3 cm s−1. Transports across Ovide sections previously obtained using S-ADCP data to constrain the geostrophic inverse box model are used as reference. The new method is found useful to estimate absolute transports across the sections, as well as part of their variability. Despite associated uncertainties about 50% larger than when S-ADCP is used, our results for the North Atlantic Current and heat transports, with uncertainties of 10 to 15%, reproduce the variability already observed. The largest uncertainties are found in the estimates of the East Greenland Irminger Current (EGIC) transport (30%), induced by larger uncertainties associated with altimetry data at the western boundary.
Journal Of Atmospheric And Oceanic Technology (0739-0572) (Amer Meteorological Soc), 2011-10 , Vol. 28 , N. 10 , P. 1324-1337

Droits : 2011 American Meteorological Society
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00038/14921/13751.pdf
DOI:10.1175/2011JTECHO818.1
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00038/14921/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
The aim of this study is to assess the availability and quality of data from the International GNSS Service (IGS) Global Positioning System (GPS) network in Africa, especially for retrieving zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD), from which precipitable water vapour (PWV) can be derived, in view of application to the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) project. Three major error sources for the GPS data analysis evaluating PWV in Africa are the accuracy of the satellite orbits, the correction for the radio delay induced by the ionosphere and the vertical site displacements due to ocean loading. The first part of this study examines these error sources and the validity of GPS data for meteorological applications in Africa in dedicated analyses spanning the year 2001. These analyses were performed using the IGS precise orbits. Weak degradation of baseline precision with increasing baseline lengths suggests that the average orbital error is not limiting the GPS analysis in Africa. The impact of the ionosphere has been evaluated during a maximum of solar activity in 2001. The loss of L2 data has actually been observed. It amounts to 2% on average for 2001, with maxima of 8% during magnetic storm events. A slight decrease in formal accuracy of ZTD seems to be related to the loss of L2 data at the end of the day. This indicates that scintillation effects are present in the GPS observations but however are not a major limitation. The impact of ocean loading is found to be significant on ZTD estimates (up to ±2 mm in equivalent PWV). The use of a proper ocean loading model eliminates this effect. The second aspect of this study concerns the IGS analysis quality for the African stations. The accuracy has been assessed through position dispersion between individual solutions and the most recent version of the IGS combined solution IGb00, and residuals from the transformation of the IGS combined solution into the International Terrestrial Reference Frame 2005. The positioning performance of the IGS analysis is consistent with an accuracy in ZTD of ±6 mm (±1 mm in PWV), as requested for meteorological applications such as planned in AMMA.
ISSN: 1364-6826

insu-00347961
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00347961
DOI : 10.1016/j.jastp.2007.04.008

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD springer
Résumé : International audience
Although optimal control problems for linear systems have been profoundly investigated in the past 50-60 years, the issue of numerical approximations and precise error analyses remains challenging due the bang-bang structure of the optimal controls. Based on a recent paper by M. Quincampoix and V.M. Veliov on metric regularity of the optimality conditions for control problems of linear systems the paper presents new error estimates for the Euler discretization scheme applied to such problems. It turns out that the accuracy of the Euler method depends on the "controllability index" associated with the optimal solution, and a sharp error estimate is given in terms of this index. The result extends and strengthens in several directions some recently published ones.
Lecture notes in computer science
Sozopol, Bulgaria

hal-00998121
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00998121

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD BioMed Central
Résumé : International audience
ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Climate change poses unprecedented challenges, ranging from global and local policy challenges to personal and social action. Heat-related deaths are largely preventable, but interventions for the most vulnerable populations need improvement. Therefore, the prior identification of high risk areas at the community level is required to better inform planning and prevention. We aimed to demonstrate a simple and flexible conceptual framework relying upon satellite thermal data and other digital data with the goal of easily reproducing this framework in a variety of urban configurations. RESULTS: The study area encompasses Rennes, a medium-sized French city. A Landsat ETM + image (60 m resolution) acquired during a localized heatwave (June 2001) was used to estimate land surface temperature (LST) and derive a hazard index. A land-use regression model was performed to predict the LST. Vulnerability was assessed through census data describing four dimensions (socio-economic status, extreme age, population density and building obsolescence). Then, hazard and vulnerability indices were combined to deliver a heatwave health risk index. The LST patterns were quite heterogeneous, reflecting the land cover mosaic inside the city boundary, with hotspots of elevated temperature mainly observed in the city center. A spatial error regression model was highly predictive of the spatial variation in the LST (R2 = 0.87) and was parsimonious. Three land cover descriptors (NDVI, vegetation and water fractions) were negatively linked with the LST. A sensitivity analysis (based on an image acquired on July 2000) yielded similar results. Southern areas exhibited the most vulnerability, although some pockets of higher vulnerability were observed northeast and west of the city. The heatwave health risk map showed evidence of infra-city spatial clustering, with the highest risks observed in a north--south central band. Another sensitivity analysis gave a very high correlation between 2000 and 2001 risk indices (r = 0.98, p < 10-12). CONCLUSIONS: Building on previous work, we developed a reproducible method that can provide guidance for local planners in developing more efficient climate impact adaptations. We recommend, however, using the health risk index together with hazard and vulnerability indices to implement tailored programs because exposure to heat and vulnerability do not require the same prevention strategies.
ISSN: 1476-072X

inserm-00762303
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00762303
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00762303/document
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00762303/file/1476-072X-11-38.pdf
DOI : 10.1186/1476-072X-11-38

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD MDPI
Résumé : International audience
Satellite precipitation products are a means of estimating rainfall, particularly in areas that are sparsely equipped with rain gauges. The Guiana Shield is a region vulnerable to high water episodes. Flood risk is enhanced by the concentration of population living along the main rivers. A good understanding of the regional hydro-climatic regime, as well as an accurate estimation of precipitation is therefore of great importance. Unfortunately, there are very few rain gauges available in the region. The objective of the study is then to compare satellite rainfall estimation products in order to complement the information available in situ and to perform a regional analysis of four operational precipitation estimates, by partitioning the whole area under study into a homogeneous hydro-climatic region. In this study, four satellite products have been tested, TRMM TMPA (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis) V7 (Version 7) and RT (real time), CMORPH (Climate Prediction Center (CPC) MORPHing technique) and PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely-Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Network), for daily rain gauge data. Product performance is evaluated at daily and monthly scales based on various intensities and hydro-climatic regimes from 1 January 2001 to 30 December 2012 and using quantitative statistical criteria (coefficient correlation, bias, relative bias and root mean square error) and quantitative error metrics (probability of detection for rainy days and for no-rain days and the false alarm ratio). Over the entire study period, all products underestimate precipitation. The results obtained in terms of the hydro-climate show that for areas with intense convective precipitation, TMPA V7 shows a better performance than other products, especially in the estimation of extreme precipitation events. In regions along the Amazon, the use of PERSIANN is better. Finally, in the driest areas, TMPA V7 and PERSIANN show the same performance.
ISSN: 2072-4292

meteo-01304579
https://hal-meteofrance.archives-ouvertes.fr/meteo-01304579
https://hal-meteofrance.archives-ouvertes.fr/meteo-01304579/document
https://hal-meteofrance.archives-ouvertes.fr/meteo-01304579/file/remotesensing-07-15831.pdf
DOI : 10.3390/rs71215831

Éditeur(s) : Oxford university press
Résumé : Fish-aggregating devices (FADs) are increasingly used worldwide to enhance tuna catches. Meanwhile, ecosystem-based management of this fishery is constrained by a paucity of information regarding the interaction of FAD-associated tuna aggregations with their local environment. This paper reports the results of a nine-month study around a FAD moored near Martinique Island, aimed at assessing the effects of the local environment on the variability of monthly estimates of proximate tuna biomass. Dual-frequency, active acoustics provided highresolution quantitative data on the pelagic community around the FAD, from fish to micronekton forage. Geostatistics were used to compute biomass estimates of the tuna aggregation comprising most of the FADassociated fish biomass, with a sampling error of 27%. Environmental variability was summarized by a small set of principal components (PCs) derived from profiles of temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen vs. depth; and maps of chlorophyll a derived from remotely sensed, sea-surface colour. A generalized linear model was used to relate tuna biomass to environmental PCs and revealed a positive correlation between tuna abundance and: i) a micronekton layer sensed at 38 kHz and potentially consisting of preferred prey at about 180 m depth; and ii) low subsurface salinity (60–80 m). These favourable environmental conditions may be related to thepresence of North Brazilian Current eddies that migrating tuna follow when not temporally associated with the FADs.
ICES Journal of Marine Science (1054-3139) (Oxford university press), 2009-07 , Vol. 66 , N. 6 , P. 1410-1416

Droits : 2009 Oxford university press
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2008/publication-6162.pdf
DOI:10.1093/icesjms/fsp039
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/6162/

Éditeur(s) : Elsevier Science Bv
Résumé : Recent advances in technologies have lead to a vast influx of data on movements, based on discrete recorded position of animals or fishing boats, opening new horizons for future analyses. However, most of the potential interest of tracking data depends on the ability to develop suitable modelling strategies to analyze trajectories from discrete recorded positions. A serious modelling challenge is to infer the evolution of the true position and the associated spatio-temporal distribution of behavioural states using discrete, error-prone and incomplete observations. In this paper, a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (HBM) using Hidden Markov Process (HMP) is proposed as a template for analyzing fishing boats trajectories based on data available from satellite-based vessel monitoring systems (VMS). The analysis seeks to enhance the definition of the fishing pressure exerted on fish stocks, by discriminating between the different behavioural states of a fishing trip, and also by quantifying the relative importance of each of these states during a fishing trip. The HBM approach is tested to analyse the behaviour of pelagic trawlers in the Bay of Biscay. A hidden Markov chain with a regular discrete time step is used to model transitions between successive behavioural states (e.g., fishing, steaming, stopping (at Port or at sea)) of each vessel. The parameters of the movement process (speed and turning angles) are defined conditionally upon the behavioural states. Bayesian methods are used to integrate the available data (typically VMS position recorded at discrete time) and to draw inferences on any unknown parameters of the model. The model is first tested on simulated data with different parameters structures. Results provide insights on the potential of HBM with HMP to analyze VMS data. They show that if VMS positions are recorded synchronously with the instants at which the process switch from one behavioural state to another, the estimation method provides unbiased and precise inferences on behavioural states and on associated movement parameters. However, if the observations are not gathered with a sufficiently high frequency, the performance of the estimation method could be drastically impacted when the discrete observations are not synchronous with the switching instants. The model is then applied to real pathways to estimate variables of interest such as the number of operations per trip, time and distance spent fishing or travelling. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Ecological Modelling (0304-3800) (Elsevier Science Bv), 2010-07 , Vol. 221 , N. 15 , P. 1757-1769

Droits : 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00009/11993/9342.pdf
DOI:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.04.005
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00009/11993/

Éditeur(s) : Amer Geophysical Union
Résumé : This study focuses on the improved estimation of mesoscale surface ocean circulation obtained by merging TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) and ERS-1 and -2 altimeter measurements between October 1992 and May 1998. Once carefully intercalibrated and homogenized, these data are merged through an advanced global objective analysis method that allows us to correct for residual long wavelength errors and uses realistic correlation scales of ocean dynamics, The high-resolution (0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees) merged T/P + ERS-1 and -2 sea level anomaly maps provide more homogeneous and reduced mapping errors than either individual data set and more realistic sea level and geostrophic velocity statistics than T/P data alone. Furthermore, the merged T/P + ERS-1 and -2 maps yield eddy kinetic energy (EKE) levels 30% higher than maps of T/P alone. They also permit realistic global estimates of east and north components of EKE and their seasonal variations, to study EKE sources better. A comparison of velocity statistics with World Ocean Circulation Experiment surface drifters in the North Atlantic shows very good agreement. Comparison with contemporary current meter data in various oceanic regimes also produces comparable levels of energy and similar ratios of northward and eastward energy, showing that the maps are suitable to studying anisotropy. The T/P + ERS zonal and meridional components of the mapped currents usually present comparable rms variability, even though the variability in the Atlantic is more isotropic than that in the Pacific, which exhibits strong zonal changes. The EKE map presents a very detailed description, presumably never before achieved at a global scale. Pronounced seasonal changes of the EKE are found in many regions, notably the northeastern Pacific, the northeastern and northwestern Atlantic, the tropical oceans, and the zonally extended bands centered near 20 degrees S in the Indian and western Pacific Oceans and at 20 degrees N in the northwestern nl Pacific.
Journal Of Geophysical Research-oceans (0148-0227) (Amer Geophysical Union), 2000-08 , Vol. 105 , N. C8 , P. 19477-19498

Droits : 2000 AGU
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00079/19033/16617.pdf
DOI:10.1029/2000JC900063
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00079/19033/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : International audience
Volumes of magma intruded in and emitted by volcanoes through time can be estimated by reconstruction of vol-cano's morphology and time sequence. Classical approaches for quantifying magma volumes on active volcanoes are based on the difference between pre-and post-eruption digital elevation models (DEM), but this kind of approach needs the pre-eruptive surfaces to be available. For old and eroded volcanoes these surfaces are poorly constrained. However, because the geometrical form of many volcanic edifices exhibits a remarkable symmetry we propose, here, a new approach using primary volcanic landforms in order to estimate the amount of the both erupted and eroded material and to locate eruptive centers. A large fraction of composite volcanoes have near constant slope on their flanks and a form that is concave upwards near their summits. But many phenomena can lead to non-symetrical edifices and complex morphologies can result, for example from parasitic centers of volcanism on the flanks, from alternation of short effusive and explosive construction phases, from flank or caldera collapses, or from glacial and other types of erosion. In this study we propose that, on the first order approximation, complex morphologies can be modeled by piling regular cones. In this model, cones centers and slopes are derived by fitting primary volcanic landform with a linear function :elevation=f(distance from center). Such an approach allows to estimate both errors on location of the eruptive center and on the volume of the resulting cones. This model can then be used for quantifying volume of erupted and eroded material, and for quantifying catastrophic events as giant landslides or flank collapse. This approach is tested on four different active volcanoes : Mount Mayon (Philippines), Mount Fuji (Japan), Mount Etna (Sicily) and Mount Teide (Canary Island) to estimate errors in volume between modeled and actual edifices. It is then used on volcanoes of La Réunion hotspot to reconstruct the Piton des Neiges and Piton de la Fournaise volcanoes at its different stages of growing.
EGU 2014
Vienna, Austria

hal-01386609
http://hal.univ-reunion.fr/hal-01386609

Résumé : Les forêts tropicales contiennent dans leur biomasse aérienne un stock de carbone important à l’échelle de la planète. Mesurer ce stock et comprendre son fonctionnement permet de mieux saisir les enjeux liés à sa protection, sa destruction ou sa modification, ainsi que son rôle dans le cycle du carbone et les mécanismes climatiques globaux. Dans le cadre des problématiques économiques et écologiques liés au climat, les forêts sont progressivement prises en compte dans les programmes internationaux de mesures visant à réduire l’impact anthropique sur le climat (Protocole de Kyoto, 1998 ; Accord de Copenhague, 2009). L’intégration des forêts dans les mécanismes financiers liés au marché du carbone est clairement envisagée dans les années à venir (marché de carbone « d’origine forestière »).L’estimation de la biomasse aérienne d’une parcelle de forêt inventoriée nécessite l’utilisation successive de plusieurs modèles. Dans ces parcelles, le diamètre et l’espèce de chaque arbre sont renseignés. Ensuite, ces parcelles sont utilisées comme références pour l’extrapolation spatiale des valeurs de biomasse. Cette extrapolation repose souvent sur le traitement de signaux aériens (avions, satellites). Il est aussi possible d’utiliser covariables environnementales (climat, géologie, …).L’incertitude associée à l’estimation de la biomasse d’une région est le résultat de toutes les incertitudes associées à ces différents processus. Les connaissances actuelles ne nous permettent pas de quantifier cette incertitude. L’objectif de la thèse est de développer une méthodologie d’estimation de la biomasse qui permette la propagation des incertitudes ainsi que l’identification des sources de cette incertitude.Modèle de hauteur : Nous proposons un nouveau modèle de hauteur pour les forêts tropicales. Les paramètres de ce modèle ont un sens écologique et peuvent être prédits par des variables décrivant le peuplement sur lequel il est appliqué. Nous avons utilisé les données des projets Amalin et Bridge et sélectionné 42 parcelles réparties en Guyane dans lesquelles le diamètre et la hauteur de chaque arbre ont été mesurés.Modèle de densité de bois : Un modèle à été conçu pour associer à chaque espèce une distribution de densité de bois et non une valeur fixe. Nous avons utilisé les données du projet Bridge dans lequel la densité de bois a été mesurée sur 2504 arbres représentant 466 espèces.Modèle de biomasse: Nous avons montré par une analyse de sensibilité que les incertitudes des prédictions de hauteur et de densité de bois n’avaient qu’une part négligeable dans l’incertitude des prédictions de biomasse. L’amélioration de la précision de ces modèles n’est donc pas une priorité. En revanche, le modèle de hauteur peut être une source de biais.Modélisation spatiale : Les modèles développés ont été appliqués à différents réseaux de parcelles couvrant bien la zone littorale guyanaise : inventaires papetiers de l’ONF, réseau Guyafor, projet Amalin… Les prédictions de biomasse de ces parcelles sont utilisées dans un modèle spatiale. Nous produisons ainsi une carte de biomasse guyanaise associée à une carte de l’incertitude de cette estimation.
Tropical forest yield and important part of the aerial vegetation carbon stock on earth. Measuring and understanding this stock distribution is crucial for the management of the tropical forests facing the actual environmental challenges (REDD+, carbon market).Aerial Biomass estimation of forest census plots requires few models depending on the precision of the inventory: diameter models, height models, wood density models. Spatial extrapolation between census plots relies on aerial data (satellite measurements, images) or ground-based data (geology, altitude).The uncertainty of the estimation of a region’s biomass is the result of the uncertainty brought by all these models. The aim of the thesis is to develop models and methods to estimate the biomass of a region while propagating the uncertainties. This is applied to the neo-tropical forest of French Guiana (South America, Guianas Plateau).

http://www.theses.fr/2012AGUY0567/document

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : Reliable measurements of the intensity of the palaeomagnetic field are notoriously difficult to obtain. The approach generally taken is to produce multiple estimates per rock unit and assume that those which meet certain minimum standards of technical quality will combine to produce an accurate mean. However, here, using results produced from a package of 20th century basaltic lava flows from Mount Etna in Sicily, we demonstrate that this approach can fail. In this case, the application of typical sets of selection criteria actually introduces bias into the mean determination that we measure. We demonstrate that this is caused by two types of non-ideal behaviour acting in combination. The first is a result of the multidomain grains that the samples contain and the second is caused by differences in the natural and laboratory cooling rates. We discuss means of avoiding these sources of error in future palaeointensity studies performed on ancient rocks. We also develop a new, more general reliability criterion which is effective here and which we argue should be applied wherever possible in future palaeointensity studies in conjunction with standard criteria. It requires two distinct types of materials which both produce some good-quality palaeointensity measurements and uses their range of overlap to constrain the true palaeointensity. Both the application of this criterion and general reliability considerations require that future palaeointensity studies should measure many samples per cooling unit and that these should be as diverse in terms of their rock magnetic properties and cooling histories as possible.
ISSN: 0012-821X

hal-00407943
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00407943
DOI : 10.1016/j.epsl.2007.03.017

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier Masson
Résumé :  
Modeling soil water availability for tropical trees is a prerequisite to predicting the future impact of climate change on tropical forests. In this paper we develop a discrete-time deterministic water balance model adapted to tropical rainforest climates, and we validate it on a large dataset that includes micrometeorological and soil parameters along a topographic gradient in a lowland forest of French Guiana. The model computes daily water fluxes (rainfall interception, drainage, tree transpiration and soil plus understorey evapotranspiration) and soil water content using three input variables: daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and solar radiation. A novel statistical approach is employed that uses Time Domain Reflectometer (TDR) soil moisture data to estimate water content at permanent wilting point and at field capacity, and root distribution. Inaccuracy of the TDR probes and other sources of uncertainty are taken into account by model calibration through a Bayesian framework. Model daily output includes relative extractable water, REW, i.e. the daily available water standardized by potential available water. The model succeeds in capturing temporal variations in REW regardless of topographic context. The low Root Mean Square Error of Predictions suggests that the model captures the most important drivers of soil water dynamics, i.e. water refilling and root water extraction. Our model thus provides a useful tool to explore the response of tropical forests to climate scenarios of changing rainfall regime and intensity.
ISSN: 0168-1923

hal-01032181
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01032181
DOI : 10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.04.012

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Wiley
Résumé : International audience
An intensive water vapour intercomparison effort, involving airborne and ground-based water vapour lidar systems, was carried out in the framework of the COPS experiment. The main objective of this paper is to provide accurate error estimates for these systems. Comparisons between the ground-based Raman lidar BASIL and the airborne CNRS DIAL (Differential Absorption Lidar) indicate a mean relative bias between the two sensors, calculated with respect to the mean value of −2.13% (−0.034 g kg−1) in the altitude region 0.5-3.5 km, while comparisons between BASIL and the airborne DLR DIAL lead to a mean relative bias of 1.87% (0.018 g kg−1) in this same altitude region. Comparisons between the ground-based UHOH DIAL and the CNRS DIAL indicate a bias of −3.2% (−0.37 × 1022 m−3) in the altitude range 1.5-4.5 km, while comparisons between the UHOH DIAL and the DLR DIAL indicate a bias of 0.83% (0.06 × 1022 m−3) in this same altitude range. Based on the available comparisons between the ground-based Raman lidar BERTHA and the CNRS DIAL, the mean relative bias is found to be −4.37% (−0.123 g kg−1) in the altitude region 0.5-4.5 km. Comparisons between the ground-based IGN Raman lidar and the CNRS DIAL indicate a bias of 3.18% (0.55 g kg−1) in the altitude range from 0.5 to 4.5 km, while comparisons between the CNRS DIAL and DLR DIAL result in a mean relative bias of 3.93% (1.1 × 1022 m−3) in the altitude interval 0.5-4.0 km. Based on the available statistics of comparisons, benefiting from the fact that the CNRS DIAL was able to be compared with all other lidar systems, and putting equal weight on the data reliability of each instrument, overall relative values for BASIL, BERTHA, IGN Raman lidar, UHOH DIAL, DLR DIAL, and CNRS DIAL, with respect to the mean value, are found to be −0.38, −2.60, 4.90, −1.43, −2.23 and 1.72%, respectively.
ISSN: 0035-9009

hal-00572576
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00572576
DOI : 10.1002/qj.697