Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
Experimental modelling applied to the study of orogenic wedge dynamics has been a subject of fruitful research for more than 30 years, although the technique dates back as far as the early XIXth century. On one hand, several first order parameters controlling the structural evolution of mountain belts have been intensively investigated using the classic tectonic "sandbox" models. The main parameters are the properties of the basal décollement, the deforming material, the backstop, and fluxes, kinematics and surface processes. On the other hand, the morphological evolution of a mountain relief subjected to changing tectonic or climatic forcing has been addressed using another kind of approach called "geomorphic" models. Nowadays, the literature is extremely rich, particularly for the sandbox technique, so that it becomes difficult to have an exhaustive view of the effects of the above parameters on mountain evolution. In this article, we propose a detailed review of the main results obtained using both "tectonic" and "geomorphic" approaches. Our goal is to provide an almost complete state-of-the-art in the experimental study of relief dynamics to guide present and future researchers in their understanding of mountain belt evolution.
ISSN: 0040-1951

hal-00757713
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00757713
DOI : 10.1016/j.tecto.2012.01.027

Éditeur(s) : Ecole nationale supérieure agronomique de Rennes
Résumé : Describe and gain understanding on fluctuations in animal population over time and space is a central goal of population ecology. This is also crucial to ensure the sustainable management of exploited resources, particularly those with complex population dynamics such as the bluefin tuna. The goal of this work is to collect bluefin tuna catches from the ancestral Mediterranean and Atlantic trap fisheries to (i) characterise long-term fluctuations in bluefin tuna population migrating in the Mediterranean, (ii) analyse their causes et (iii) assess their implications for fisheries management. The bluefin tuna main biological and ecological characteristics are first detailed. Then, the first part presents the trap fishery, and the process of collect and validation of the historical catches. This leads to develop a data base of 54 time-series more than 20 years long, the longest ones spanning about four centuries. Mean historical catches were around 15 000 tons/year ([7 000;25 000]). Time-series are analysed in a second part. Temporal variability of trap catches may be decomposed in three components: 100-year-long periodic fluctuations, 20-year cycles and inter-annual variations. These medium- to long-term fluctuations, representing more than 50% of the variability in the time-series, were synchronous all around the western Mediterranean and adjacent North Atlantic. In contrast, short-term variability was synchronous at a local scale only. It is argued that long-term fluctuations in trap catches could be considered as a proxy for those in abundance, and a synthetic time-series is computed to depict them. Biological and ecological processes that could cause such long-term fluctuations are discussed in a third part. We tested whether long-term fluctuations in Atlantic bluefin tuna might be related to large-scale environmental changes, using long time-series of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Length of the Day index (LOD, a proxy of the atmospheric circulation index ACI) and the temperature. Spectral analyses of trap catches, LOD and temperature displayed similar spectra with peak at low frequency, whereas those of the NAO exhibited a broad band spectrum. Regression analyses and tests of correlation did not reveal any clear relationship between trap catches on the one hand and NAO and LOD on the other hand. In contrast, long-term fluctuations in trap catches appear to be negatively and significantly related to long-term trends in temperature. Underlying processes that could explain such a relationship are discussed, with special focus on changes in migration patterns. Finally, implications of such fluctuations in term of fisheries management are discussed in a fourth part. A simulation framework, in which a simulated population dynamics model is coupled with a VPA, is built to test the pertinence of the diagnostic of stock assessment according to different scenarios on fluctuations origins and population status. In the hypothesis of fluctuations linked to variations in the recruitment, VPA appears able to reconstruct the fluctuations but the predictions may be biased if natural fluctuations are not taking into account. In the hypothesis of fluctuations linked to changes in migration pattern, VPA is not able to reconstruct the population dynamics. In a precautionary approach, quotas which follow may be unsuitable in the best case, at worst dangerous if they are defined in comparison with a reference point. The concept of cible reference points, fixe and unique over time, appears not relevant for bluefin tuna; estimate trajectory reference pertinent may prove to be more pertinent.
Décrire et comprendre les fluctuations spatio-temporelles des espèces animales constituent les enjeux majeurs de l'écologie. La question est également cruciale pour réussir la gestion durable des ressources exploitées, en particulier celle du thon rouge, grand pélagique migrateur à la dynamique complexe. L'objectif de ce travail est de collecter les captures historiques de thon rouge par les madragues méditerranéennes et proche atlantiques pour (i) caractériser les fluctuations à long terme de la population migrante en Méditerranée, (ii) étudier leur déterminisme et (iii) évaluer leurs implications en terme de gestion des pêcheries. Après avoir décrit les principales caractéristiques biologiques et écologiques du thon rouge, la première partie présente la pêcherie à la madrague, puis le processus de collecte et de validation des données historiques de captures. Ce dernier conduit à la mise en place d'une base de données de 54 séries de plus de 20 ans, dont les plus longues s'étendent sur près de 4 siècles. Les productions historiques sont estimées à environ 15 000 tonnes/an ([7 000;25 000]). Les séries historiques de captures sont analysées dans la seconde partie. Leur variabilité temporelle peut être décomposée en trois composantes : de larges cycles pseudo-séculaires, des variations périodiques d'une vingtaine d'années et des fluctuations inter-annuelles. Les fluctuations à moyen et long terme, expliquant plus de la moitié de la variance des séries, sont synchrones à l'échelle du bassin méditerranéen occidental et du proche Atlantique. La variabilité inter-annuelle, en revanche, n'est synchrone qu'à une échelle locale. On montre finalement que les fluctuations à long terme des captures peuvent être considérées comme de bons indices des tendances des abondances de la population de thons rouges migrants en Méditerranée. Une série synthétique est construite pour les décrire. Les processus biologiques et écologiques susceptibles d'être à l'origine de ces fluctuations sont discutés dans la troisième partie. L'hypothèse d'un forçage environnemental à grande échelle est testée en utilisant des indices à long terme de l'Oscillation Nord Atlantique (NAO), de la longueur du jour (LOD, un indicateur de l'indice de circulation atmosphérique ACI) et de la température. Les analyses spectrales sur les séries de captures, du LOD et des températures révèlent des spectres similaires, avec un pic sur les basses fréquences, alors que celles sur le NAO conduisent à une large bande spectrale. Les régressions et les tests de corrélations ne montrent aucune relation significative entre les captures par les madragues et le NAO et le LOD. En revanche, les fluctuations à long terme des captures apparaissent significativement et négativement corrélées avec les fluctuations à long terme des températures. Les processus sous-jacents susceptibles d'expliquer une telle relation, en particulier des changements migratoires, sont discutés. Finalement, les implications des fluctuations pour la gestion de la pêcherie sont discutées dans une quatrième partie. Un cadre de simulation, couplant un modèle de dynamique de population à une VPA, est élaboré pour tester la pertinence des diagnostics d'évaluation de stock selon différents scénarios d'origine des fluctuations et d'état de la population. Dans l'hypothèse de fluctuations liées à des variations du recrutement, la VPA apparaît capable de reconstruire les fluctuations mais les prédictions sont biaisées lorsqu'il n'est pas tenu compte des fluctuations naturelles du stock. Dans l'hypothèse de fluctuations liées à des changements migratoires, la VPA est alors incapable de reproduire la dynamique de la population. Dans une approche de précaution, les quotas qui en découlent peuvent se révéler au mieux inappropriés, au pire dangereux s'ils sont définis par rapport à un point de référence. Ce concept de point cible, fixe et unique dans le temps, apparaît inapproprié pour le thon rouge ; estimer des "trajectoires de référence" serait sans doute plus pertinent.

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2003/these-65.pdf
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/65/

Éditeur(s) : Blackwell science
Résumé : This paper deals with the design of modelling tools suitable for investigating the consequences of alternative policies on the dynamics of resources and fisheries, such as the evaluation of marine protected areas (MPA). We first review the numerous models that have been developed for this purpose, and compare them from several standpoints: population modelling, exploitation modelling and management measure modelling. We then present a generic fisheries simulation model, Integration of Spatial Information for FISHeries simulation (ISIS-Fish). This spatially explicit model allows quantitative policy screening for fisheries with mixed-species harvests. It may be used to investigate the effects of combined management scenarios including a variety of policies: total allowable catch (TAC), licenses, gear restrictions, MPA, etc. Fisher's response to management may be accounted for by means of decision rules conditioned on population and exploitation parameters. An application to a simple example illustrates the relevance of this kind of tool for policy screening, particularly in the case of mixed fisheries. Finally, the reviewed models and ISIS-Fish are discussed and confronted in the light of the underlying assumptions and model objectives. In the light of this discussion, we identify desirable features for fisheries simulation models aimed at policy evaluation, and particularly MPA evaluation.
Fish and Fisheries (1467-2960) (Blackwell science), 2005-12 , Vol. 6 , N. 4 , P. 307-349

Droits : 2005 Blackwell Publishing, Inc
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2005/publication-1031.pdf
DOI:10.1111/j.1467-2979.2005.00199.x
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/1031/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Springer Verlag (Germany) Springer Verlag
Résumé : Production rates in horizontal shale gas wells display declines that are controlled by the low permeability and the intrinsic heterogeneity of the shale matrix. We present an original multi-continuum approach that yields a physical model able to reproduce the complexity of the decreasing gas rates. The model describes the dynamics of gas rate as function of the physical reservoir parameters and geometry, while the shale matrix heterogeneity is accounted for by a stochastic description of transmissivity field. From the 3D (Dimensional) problem setting, including the heterogeneous shale matrix, the fractures generated by the hydrofracking operations, as well as the production well characteristics, we establish an effective upscaled 1D model for the gas pressures in fracture and matrix as well as the volumetric flux. We analyse the decline curves behaviour, and we identify the time scales that characterize the dynamics of the gas rate decline using explicit analytical Laplace space solutions of the upscaled process model. Asymptotically, the flux curves decrease exponentially, while in an intermediate regime we find a power-law behaviour, in which the flux scales with a power law in time as (t^{-beta }), where (beta ) reflects the medium heterogeneity. We use this solution to fit a set of real data displaying distinctly different decline trends and study the sensitivity of the model to the reservoir parameters in order to identify their respective controls at the different stages of the decline curve dynamics. Results indicate that the initial value of the gas rate is determined by the transmissivity of the fractures and the initial pressure of the gas in the shale matrix. The latter causes mainly a shift in the entire decline curve. The early time of decline curve shape is primarily controlled by the fracture properties (compressibility and transmissivity). During the main part of the economically valuable production times, i.e. before the production rate drops exponentially, the decline curve is strongly controlled by the properties of the shale rocks including their heterogeneity, which is modelled by two parameters describing the non-Fickian pressure diffusion effects in a stochastic framework.
ISSN: 0169-3913

hal-01217247
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01217247
DOI : 10.1007/s11242-015-0504-y

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Société géologique de France
Résumé : The mechanical equilibrium of an orogenic wedge is maintained thanks to interactions between tectonic processes and surface processes. To better constrain the influence of erosion and sedimentation on the evolution of orogens, we performed a series of analogue models based on the tapered wedge principle, varying the amounts of erosion and sedimentation. The models develop by frontal accretion in the foreland basin and by simple underthrusting and subsequent underplating in the hinterland. The variations in rates of erosion and sedimentation strongly modify the extent, the morphology, the structures, the timing of development and the material paths in the different models. Under certain conditions, entire structural units can be formed and subsequently eroded out of the geological record, leading to important underestimations when restoring sections. Particles located in the converging lower-plate or in the upper-plate show complex uplift paths related to tectonic stages. The correlation between models and three Alpine tectonic cross-sections emphasizes the role of erosion and sedimentation on the dynamics and development of the orogen and adjacent Molasse basin. Along strike changes in the present structure of the orogen could be explained in part by differences in surface processes.
EISSN: 1777-5817

hal-00411140
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00411140
DOI : 10.2113/gssgfbull.3.297

Éditeur(s) : Springer
Résumé : We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.
Climate Dynamics (0930-7575) (Springer), 2013-05 , Vol. 40 , N. 9-10 , P. 2123-2165

Droits : The Author(s) 2013. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00138/24966/23079.pdf
DOI:10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00138/24966/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD BioMed Central
Résumé : International audience
Background: HCV treatment uptake has drastically increased in HIV-HCV coinfected patients in France since direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment approval, resulting in HCV cure in 63% of all HIV-HCV patients by the end of 2015. We investigated the impact of scaling-up DAA on HCV prevalence in the whole HIV population and in various risk groups over the next 10 years in France using a transmission dynamic compartmental model.Methods: The model was based on epidemiological data from the French Dat’AIDS cohort. Eight risk groups wereconsidered, including high-risk (HR) and low-risk (LR) men who have sex with men (MSM) and male/female heterosexuals,intra-venous drug users, or patients from other risk groups. The model was calibrated on prevalence and incidence dataobserved in the cohort between 2012 and 2015.Results: On January 1, 2016, 156,811 patients were registered as infected with HIV in France (24,900 undiagnosedpatients) of whom 7938 (5.1%) had detectable HCV-RNA (722 undiagnosed patients). Assuming a treatmentcoverage (TC) rate of 30%/year (i.e., the observed rate in 2015), model projections showed that HCV prevalenceamong HIV patients is expected to drop to 0.81% in 2026. Sub-analyses showed a similar decrease of HIV-HCVprevalence in most risk groups, including LR MSM. Due to higher infection and reinfection rates, predicted prevalencein HR MSM remained stable from 6.96% in 2016 to 6.34% in 2026. Increasing annual TC rate in HR MSM to 50/70%would decrease HCV prevalence in this group to 2.35/1.25% in 2026. With a 30% TC rate, undiagnosed patients wouldaccount for 34% of HCV infections in 2026.Conclusions: Our model suggests that DAA could nearly eliminate coinfection in France within 10 years for most riskgroups, including LR MSM. Elimination in HR MSM will require increased TC.
ISSN: 1741-7015

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
inserm-01685739
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-01685739
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-01685739/document
http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-01685739/file/2017%2C%20Virlogeux%20-%20Modeling%20HIV-HCV%20coinfection.pdf
DOI : 10.1186/s12916-017-0979-1

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier Masson
Résumé :  
Modeling soil water availability for tropical trees is a prerequisite to predicting the future impact of climate change on tropical forests. In this paper we develop a discrete-time deterministic water balance model adapted to tropical rainforest climates, and we validate it on a large dataset that includes micrometeorological and soil parameters along a topographic gradient in a lowland forest of French Guiana. The model computes daily water fluxes (rainfall interception, drainage, tree transpiration and soil plus understorey evapotranspiration) and soil water content using three input variables: daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and solar radiation. A novel statistical approach is employed that uses Time Domain Reflectometer (TDR) soil moisture data to estimate water content at permanent wilting point and at field capacity, and root distribution. Inaccuracy of the TDR probes and other sources of uncertainty are taken into account by model calibration through a Bayesian framework. Model daily output includes relative extractable water, REW, i.e. the daily available water standardized by potential available water. The model succeeds in capturing temporal variations in REW regardless of topographic context. The low Root Mean Square Error of Predictions suggests that the model captures the most important drivers of soil water dynamics, i.e. water refilling and root water extraction. Our model thus provides a useful tool to explore the response of tropical forests to climate scenarios of changing rainfall regime and intensity.
ISSN: 0168-1923

hal-01032181
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01032181
DOI : 10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.04.012

Éditeur(s) : Université de la Rochelle
Résumé : In order to better understand the functioning of the Brouage intertidal mudflat (Marennes- Oléron Basin, France), its carbon-based trophic web has been modelled and analyzed. The foodweb building is based on the 4 step method of Inverse Analysis: 1) conceive an a priori model as the graph of compartments (nodes) between which exist fluxes of material (vertices). These vertices are the unknowns for the problem; 2) gather all the existing knowledge about the ecosystem and translate it into linear equations and inequalities involving the fluxes; 3) complete this set of data by common knowledge on the behaviour of the compartments and translate it into inequalities, 4) solve the obtained linear system under the parsimony principle to find a unique solution vector. The food-web analysis is based on. The first purpose of this work was a methodological one: inverse analysis method has been adapted to consider the seasonal and spatial variability of the temperate ecosystem: two seasons have been coupled in the computation and the area has been divided into three geographical zones along a cross-shore gradient. Hence, two types of physical exchanges are involved: the benthicpelagic ones and the advection ones. Statistical results can also be obtained by coupling Monte Carlo methods to Inverse Analysis. To study the obtained networks, new indices based on Markov Chains take delay into account in describing integrative transfers of material between compartments. This lets emerge the systems' properties that are not obvious at first sight and emphasizes the role of peculiar components. The second purpose was to apply such methods to the Brouage mudflat ecosystem in order to better understand its functioning. As the knowledge and methods evolve, various food webs were computed and analyzed with the help such indices and existing ones. Sensitivity analyses allow to point at the most crucial lacks of knowledge, which can orientate future field research. New data would improve the quality of the model in two ways: one the one hand, they would validate or invalidate the outcomes and on the other hand, they would give useful information to better constrain some of the black boxes and most uncertain fluxes, especially the advection and vertical flows. The main results of the study show a strongly seasonal system in which benthic and pelagic components are linked with intensity. The system is driven by its high local benthic primary production, but also depends on imports from the basin. Each of the 3 geographic zones has a peculiar functioning. The central zone corresponds to the classical description of European intertidal mudflats: very productive, it can feed the other regions. It is a production zone. The upper part is less productive but is fed by the middle one via the water column and can be exploited by shorebirds. It is a degradation zone (material is transformed for less qualitative). The lower part strongly depends on the basin imports for its functioning, as the cultivated bivalves act as a pump for pelagic material of which a great part is deposited under the cultivation structures (oyster racks or mussels "bouchots"). It is a transformation zone.
Un double objectif (méthodologique et appliqué) a été visé par une modélisation du réseau trophique de la vasière de Brouage (Bassin de Marennes Oléron, France) à l'aide de l'analyse inverse, et son étude à l'aide de l'analyse des réseaux. L'Analyse Inverse permet en effet de reconstruire l'ensemble du réseau à partir de données éparses, le problème du manque de données étant récurrent en Ecologie. Au plan méthodologique, l'analyse inverse a été adaptée à la prise en compte des caractères saisonnier et spatialement hétérogène d'un écosystème tempéré de zone intertidale : deux saisons ont ainsi été couplées et la vasière a été considérée le long d'un transect perpendiculaire au rivage et divisé en trois zones spatiales. Deux types de flux physiques interviennent donc : les flux verticaux de dépôt et remise en suspension, et les flux d'advection via la colonne d'eau. Des pistes d'amélioration et de nouvelles méthodes sont proposées. Un résultat sous forme statistique peut être obtenu en couplant l'utilisation de méthodes de Monte Carlo à l'analyse inverse pour la construction des réseaux trophiques. Les moyens d'étude des modèles ont été enrichis par la mise au point d'indices issus de la construction de chaînes de Markov et prenant en compte le caractère temporel des transferts de matière entre compartiments. Enfin, la transformation mathématique du modèle statique pour une étude dynamique de la stabilité de l'équilibre décrit est abordée. Plusieurs modèles ont été construits au cours de l'évolution des méthodes et de l'acquisition de connaissances sur le site. Des méthodes d'analyses existantes et d'autres mises au point dans le cadre de cet ouvrage ont été appliquées aux réseaux obtenus afin de faire émerger les propriétés du fonctionnement de la vasière et de souligner le rôle de certains compartiments. Des analyses de sensibilité permettent d'évaluer la robustesse des résultats et d'orienter les recherches futures en mettant en évidence les manques les plus cruciaux. Des données supplémentaires, notamment concernant les foraminifères benthiques, le zooplancton ou les mouvements verticaux du microphytobenthos permettront de fournir de meilleures contraintes et de valider (ou non) les résultats obtenus. Les principaux résultats montrent un système au fort caractère saisonnier dont les compartiments benthiques et pélagiques sont très liés. La production primaire benthique locale est un moteur important, mais qui ne suffirait pas à suppléer l'indispensable importation de matériel détritique. Le découpage de la vasière en trois zones fait apparaître les particularités de chacune. La zone centrale correspond à la description classique des « vasières intertidales européennes » : très productive, elle peut alimenter les autres régions. C'est une zone de production et d'exportation. La partie supérieure est moins productive et reçoit de la matière de la zone de milieu d'estran via la colonne d'eau. Sa production secondaire peut alors être exploitée par les limicoles, nombreux en hiver. C'est une zone de dégradation et d'exportation. Le bas d'estran dépend fortement des importations extérieures, « pompées » par les bivalves cultivés qui sont ainsi directement responsables d'une forte sédimentation sous les structures mytilicoles et ostréicoles. C'est une zone de transformation.

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2005/these-2260.pdf
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/2260/

Éditeur(s) : Elsevier
Résumé : In order to provide reliable scientific advice and support for fisheries management, it is necessary to evaluate the biological and economic sustainability of complex fisheries, such as multi-species multi-fleet fisheries. Existing policy-screening modelling tools are not fully suitable in this purpose due to either an over-simplified description of population dynamics, or due to the lack of consideration of economic aspects. In this paper, we present a package that enables quantitative bioeconomic assessment of management scenarios. Population dynamics is described through spatially- and seasonally-explicit models. Exploitation dynamics is characterized by several fishing activities with specific spatial and seasonal features, and practiced by several kinds of vessels with specific technical characteristics. Exploitation costs and revenues are considered at several levels: the fishing trip, the fishing unit (vessel and crew), and the vessel owner. The model is generic and can be used for different types of fisheries. A database is attached to the software for the storage and updating of information for each fishery. This includes the specification of model dimensions and of the parameters describing populations and exploitation. Several model assumptions regarding either population or exploitation may be adapted to suit a specific fishery. Both policies and corresponding fishers' response may be interactively specified through JAVA (TM) scripts. This version of ISIS-Fish allows for the calculation of biological and economic consequences of a range of policies, including conventional ones like catch and effort controls, and alternative policies such as marine protected areas. To facilitate policy-screening in a high-dimension parameter space, the software includes features, like interfaces for sensitivity analysis and simulation queues. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Ecological Modelling (0304-3800) (Elsevier), 2009-04 , Vol. 220 , N. 7 , P. 1013-1033

Droits : 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2009/publication-6782.pdf
DOI:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.01.007
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/6782/

Éditeur(s) : Université des Antilles Études caribéennes
Résumé : Evaluer les retombées économiques de manifestations sportives sur les territoires d’accueil est l’une des conditions permettant de décider de la pérennisation ou non de ces évènements. Cette évaluation revêt une grande importance pour les prestataires de services, les institutionnels et les diverses entreprises qui y sont engagés, car elle leur permet d’avoir une vision plus claire du marché, et le cas échéant d’ajuster et d’affiner leur politique évènementielle pour l’avenir. Aujourd’hui, apparaît de plus en plus un besoin croissant d’évaluation de la part de praticiens et d’acteurs publics impliqués dans les activités sportives. Ces derniers comme le grand public s’interrogent quelquefois sur l’utilité ou la pertinence économique et sociale de tels évènements.Aussi, l’objectif prioritaire de cette étude est de proposer dans le cas de la Guadeloupe, à partir d’un cadre conceptuel précis et d’une méthodologie partagée et éprouvée, une évaluation territoriale de l’impact économique et social de la Route du rhum, en retenant deux approches: l’une en niveau, déterminant successivement les valeurs du multiplicateur input-output à l’aide d’un tableau entrées-sorties (TES) de l’économie guadeloupéenne, et du multiplicateur de la base qui s’appuie sur les résultats d’une méta-analyse; l’autre , dynamique, spécifie par un modèle économétrique l’influence de la Route du rhum et d’autres variables sur la croissance économique de la Guadeloupe. L’enjeu consiste à se doter collectivement de points de repère afin que les différents acteurs de ce sport puissent situer les effets de leurs actions par rapport à d’autres pratiques, d’autres territoires, et à clarifier le niveau de contribution économique de cette activité sportive sur le territoire de Guadeloupe. Les résultats obtenus convergent et montrent qu’en dépit d’un succès indéniable au plan sportif et médiatique, la Route du rhum, évènement sportif de voile de haut niveau reliant tous les quatre ans St Malo à Pointe-a-Pitre, enregistre au plan économique des résultats modestes si l’on en juge à la fois par les médiocres retombées induites en matière de fréquentation touristique, par les faibles coefficients multiplicateurs de revenu affichés, par un ratio coût-bénéfice défavorable et par les incidences mineures que provoque cet évènement sur la croissance économique régionale.
Evaluation of economic effects from sport events is necessary to pursue or not these events. This evaluation is important for enterprises that provide goods and services also for the government, because it allows them to obtain an accurate vision of the future.Today, we have a growing need of evaluation from the people involved in sport activities. Sometimes, these people ask themselves on economic and social advantages of these events.The objective of this paper is to propose for Guadeloupe a rigourous methodology that assesses the economic and social impact of Route du rhum which is a transatlantic competition between St-Malo and Pointe-a-Pitre. We use two approaches: the first of which is level-based and determines the values of both economic base multipliers and input-output multipliers by composing an input-output table of the Guadeloupe economy. The second, dynamic approach specifies from an econometric model the impact of several variables, especially those of la Route du rhum. The goal is to provide findings to stakeholders of this sport for comparison. The results of the investigation merge and show globally weak economic performance of Route du rhum, particularly a poor cost-benefit ratio, weak economic multipliers and inter-industry linkages.
Guadeloupe

Droits : info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
urn:doi:10.4000/etudescaribeennes.5296
http://journals.openedition.org/etudescaribeennes/5296

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Geological Society of America
Résumé : International audience
We present the results of dynamic modeling of the western Mediterranean that accounts for observed global positioning system (GPS) surface deformation of the Alboran Sea and surrounding Rif and Betic Mountains as the result of the combined effects of relative motion of the Eurasian and Nubian plates, low strength in the Alboran Sea region and sub-lithospheric processes occurring beneath the External Rif domain. Assuming that the lithosphere behaves elastically over the short time period of the GPS observations, an elastic plate model is considered in our study, including an area of weak lithosphere (factor of 10) centered on the Alboran Sea and in which lateral boundary conditions consist of the Nubia-Eurasia oblique convergence. Sub-crustal processes are modeled by application of a horizontal traction on a small area (patch) at the base of the elastic plate. Our modeling studies demonstrate the need for sub-crustal or sub-lithospheric, southwestward-directed forcing to account for observed southwestward motion of the Rif and Betic domains. Based on the location, orientation, and small area of the traction patch, we hypothesize that forcing is associated with delamination and rollback of the subducted African continental lithospheric mantle beneath the External Rif zone, due to the pull of the oceanic part of the Western Mediterranean slab, a dynamic process that may be similar to that where the over-riding plate is driven toward the subduction zone during slab rollback.
ISSN: 0091-7613

hal-00524546
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00524546
DOI : 10.1130/G30963.1

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : This work focus on the characterization of the source and dynamic of compactional fluids during sedimentary burial, through two complementary examples of late orogenic oil‐field half‐grabens: The exhumed Lodève Permian Basin and a deep buried Jurassic basin in the North Viking Graben (North Sea).Constituting the main part of the thesis, a multi‐disciplinary approach was conducted in the Lodève Basin where Ba‐F‐Cu‐Pb polymetallic mineralized systems are trapped into synrift faults and paleokarsts in the carbonate basement at the hinge point of the rollover. The source, timing and P/T conditions of fluid migration were deduced from the analysis of the microfabric, the fluid inclusions microthermometry, and the isotopic (Sr, S, O, H) and Rare Earth Element (REE) signature. Results are then crossed with a structural and thermal modeling that consolidates the sequence and dynamics of fluid during burial.A similar approach was conducted in the North Viking Graben where fluid markers are restricted to 3D seismic and well core data. Comparable Ba‐Pb‐Zn veins are reported in basin margin, plugging one of the most important siliciclastic hydrocarbon reservoir in the substratum. This analysis provides additional constraints on basinal fluid behavior and allows us to propose a global dynamic model for various compositions of fluids and reservoirs.We conclude to a polyphase fluid sequence history including:(a) In the carbonate basement of the Lodève Basin, karstic paleocanyon incisions and associated cavities coupled to synrift fault, act as major drain for fluids. These structures are early affected by hypogen‐sulfuric karstification in response to the interaction between bacterial oxidation of sulfides entrapped within Lower Permian blackshales and the basement oxidizing aquifer.(b) Disequilibrium compaction initiates overpressure‐driven basinal fluid migration towards basin margins, characterized by temperatures around 150‐180°C and salinities between 9 et 18wt%eq.NaCl. Isotopic (Sr, S, O) and REE analyses reveal that Ba‐M+‐rich mineralizing fluids derived mainly from buried blackshales diagenesis. External fluids coming from the lower crust are also identified that play a key role in fluorite precipitation by the leaching of late hercynian granites (mean temperature of 250°C and salinity > 20wt%eq.NaCl).(c) During the synrift period, fluid overpressure is responsible for the periodic reactivation of fault plane according to seismic‐valve process, bedded‐control shearing and hydraulic brecciation at the basement‐seal interface. These mechanisms induce cyclic polymetallic mineralization by the mixing between in‐situ formation water and deep ascending basinal fluids.(d) Thermogenic fluids expulsion starts with last basinal fluids during late burial stage. Hydrocarbons thus migrate along the same regional pathways up to the rollover crest, where they are partly rerouted by the previous mineralized baffle.(e) In the Lodève basin, post‐rift exhumation of the margins led to the remobilization of synrift deposits by subaerial biochemical processes at the sulfate‐methane transition. The latter results from the interaction between the still active hydrocarbon dysmigration with a playa lake sulfate‐rich aquifer. Secondary low‐temperature barite fronts precipitate then within basement meteoric karsts.In addition to the « source to sink » model of basinal fluids, this work provides new insights on the early plugging of hydrocarbon reservoirs and for the metallogenesis of Mississippi Valley‐Type deposits.
Ce travail porte sur la caractérisation de la source et de la dynamique des fluides de bassin au cours de leur chargement à travers deux exemples complémentaires de demi‐grabens tardi‐orogéniques pétroliers : Le Bassin Permien de Lodève, aujourd’hui à l’affleurement et un bassin jurassique enfouis dans le North Viking Graben (Mer du Nord).Le coeur de la thèse concerne le Bassin de Lodève où, à partir d’une approche pluridisciplinaire intégrée, nous avons caractérisé l’architecture des minéralisations (Ba, F, Cu, Pb) piégées dans un réseau paléokarstique alimenté par les failles syn‐rift, dans le substratum carbonaté à l’apex du roll‐over. La source, le calendrier et les conditions de migration des fluides ont été approchés à partir de l’analyse de la micro‐fabrique, la microthermométrie sur inclusions fluides, les analyses isotopiques (Sr, S, O, H) et de Terres Rares. Les résultats analytiques ont été enfin croisés avec un modèle thermique et structural du bassin qui conforte la séquence et la dynamique du système fluide en cours d’enfouissement.Une démarche similaire, mais plus limitée, a été conduite dans le bassin du North Viking Graben où l’accès aux marqueurs fluides est restreint aux données de sismique 3D et de carottes. Comme à Lodève, les minéralisations Ba‐Pb‐Zn colmatent un réservoir dans le substratum à l’apex du roll‐over. Elles se présentent sous forme de ciments dans des grès ou des fractures. Cette analyse apporte des contraintes complémentaires et permet de proposer un modèle dynamique général avec des variantes en fonction de la nature des fluides et des réservoirs.On retiendra donc la séquence fluide suivante :(a) Dans le cas du bassin de Lodève sur substratum carbonaté, les chemins préférentiels de drainage se développent dans des paléocanyons N‐S couplés à un réseau de fractures et d’endokarsts météoriques. Ces derniers sont élargis en début de rifting par la dissolution hypogène sulfurique produite par l’oxydation bactérienne des sulfates et des pyrites des blackshales, au contact de l’aquifère oxydant du Cambrien.(b) Le déséquilibre de compaction initie la migration des fluides interstitiels en surpression vers les marges avec des températures autour de 150‐180°C et des salinités entre 9 et 18wt%eq.NaCl. Les analyses isotopiques (Sr, S, O) révèlent que la majorité des fluides provient de l’altération diagénétique des blackshales riches en métaux. Des interactions sont également mises en évidence avec des fluides profonds (entre 240°C et 260°C ; salinités > à 20wt%eq.NaCl), qui lessivent les granites tardi‐hercyniens.(c) Pendant le syn‐rift, les conditions de surpression de fluide permettent la réactivation cyclique des failles, les décollements stratigraphiques et la formation de brèches hydrauliques, favorisant la mise en connexion avec les réservoirs superficiels à l’apex du rollover. Le modèle de Sibson ajusté aux fluides de bassins est alors le moteur de la migration verticale.(d) Les fluides thermogéniques commencent à être expulsés avec les derniers fluides de compaction au cours d’un stade plus évolué de l’enfouissement en empruntant les mêmes chemins jusqu’à l’apex du roll over. Ils sont alors partiellement freinés et déviés par les colmatages minéralisés antérieurs.(e) A Lodève, la continentalisation des minéralisations antérieures au cours de l’exhumation post‐rift conduit à leur remaniement partiel au niveau de la transition sulfate‐méthane induite par l’interaction entre une playa évaporitique et la dysmigration des hydrocarbures. Des barytines secondaires de basse température, déprimées en Sr sont alors précipitées de manière synsédimentaire dans des karsts météoriques du socle.Outre l’illustration d’un modèle complet (source to sink) de dynamique des fluides dans un bassin, ce travail apporte de nouvelles contraintes dans l’approche du colmatage des réservoirs à hydrocarbures sur les têtes de blocs basculés et sur la genèse des gîtes miniers de type Mississippi Valley‐Type.
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01457583

tel-01457583
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01457583
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01457583/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01457583/file/th%C3%A8seLaurent2015V2.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union
Résumé : International audience
Earth deformation is a multi-scale process ranging from seconds (seismic deformation) to millions of years (tectonic deformation). Bridging short- and long-term deformation and developing seismotectonic models has been a challenge in experimental tectonics for more than a century. Since the formulation of Reid's elastic rebound theory 100 years ago, laboratory mechanical models combining frictional and elastic elements have been used to study the dynamics of earthquakes. In the last decade, with the advent of high-resolution monitoring techniques and new rock analogue materials, laboratory earthquake experiments have evolved from simple spring-slider models to scaled analogue models. This evolution was accomplished by advances in seismology and geodesy along with relatively frequent occurrences of large earthquakes in the past decade. This coincidence has significantly increased the quality and quantity of relevant observations in nature and triggered a new understanding of earthquake dynamics. We review here the developments in analogue earthquake modelling with a focus on those seismotectonic scale models that are directly comparable to observational data on short to long timescales. We lay out the basics of analogue modelling, namely scaling, materials and monitoring, as applied in seismotectonic modelling. An overview of applications highlights the contributions of analogue earthquake models in bridging timescales of observations including earthquake statistics, rupture dynamics, ground motion, and seismic-cycle deformation up to seismotectonic evolution.
ISSN: 1869-9510

hal-01553120
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01553120
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01553120/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01553120/file/rosenau2017.pdf
DOI : 10.5194/se-8-597-2017

Éditeur(s) : Public Library Science
Résumé : Studying the larval dispersal of bottom-dwelling species is necessary to understand their population dynamics and optimize their management. The black-lip pearl oyster (Pinctada margaritifera) is cultured extensively to produce black pearls, especially in French Polynesia's atoll lagoons. This aquaculture relies on spat collection, a process that can be optimized by understanding which factors influence larval dispersal. Here, we investigate the sensitivity of P. margaritifera larval dispersal kernel to both physical and biological factors in the lagoon of Ahe atoll. Specifically, using a validated 3D larval dispersal model, the variability of lagoon-scale connectivity is investigated against wind forcing, depth and location of larval release, destination location, vertical swimming behavior and pelagic larval duration (PLD) factors. The potential connectivity was spatially weighted according to both the natural and cultivated broodstock densities to provide a realistic view of connectivity. We found that the mean pattern of potential connectivity was driven by the southwest and northeast main barotropic circulation structures, with high retention levels in both. Destination locations, spawning sites and PLD were the main drivers of potential connectivity, explaining respectively 26%, 59% and 5% of the variance. Differences between potential and realistic connectivity showed the significant contribution of the pearl oyster broodstock location to its own dynamics. Realistic connectivity showed larger larval supply in the western destination locations, which are preferentially used by farmers for spat collection. In addition, larval supply in the same sectors was enhanced during summer wind conditions. These results provide new cues to understanding the dynamics of bottom-dwelling populations in atoll lagoons, and show how to take advantage of numerical models for pearl oyster management.
Plos One (1932-6203) (Public Library Science), 2014-04 , Vol. 9 , N. 4 , P. e95050

Droits : 2014 Thomas et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00197/30843/29210.pdf
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0095050
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00197/30843/

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
In this work we perform a statistical analysis of global solar radiation measured at two sites, 38 km distant from, in Guadeloupe, French West Indies. We have established a correlation model based on the coefficient of variation assuming a time scale separation. The coefficient of variation is calculated on minutes interval with data measured at 1 Hz. This analysis highlight the dynamic correlation that can occur between measurements from two different sites with a time step of one second. From this results, knowing the coefficient of variation on a site we have established a new correlation model on this parameter for another site. A diagram linking the standard deviation on both sites, for a given coefficient of variation is proposed for correlated and non-correlated cases. More over this analysis put in evidence the existence of a threshold time under which there is no significant correlation. This model can be useful in choosing new sites of production not only for establishing correlation from on site to another, but also in optimizing the geographical distribution of the solar farms within the territory.
ISSN: 0960-1481

Droits : http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/licences/copyright/
hal-01099045
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01099045
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01099045/document
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01099045/file/Article%20Foison_2014.pdf

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD
Résumé : The field campaign on the Sète coast deployed during the winter 2009 was used to understand the hydrodynamics on a double barred beach in the surf zone during storm periods. The large set of measurements collected at several position and depth were also useful to improve the 3D circulation model Symphonie that takes into account the atmospherics and wave forcings. Once implemented on the beach and supplemented with some additional parameterizations concerning the roller effects and the bottom friction, the model was tuned and validated in the surf zone. The role of the different processes was then analysed. Thus, the roller and the bottom friction are of primary importance in the dynamics of the circulation. Thanks to its 3D nature and once associated with a sediment transport model and a morphodynamic model, Symphonie will offer a good representation of the sediment transport.
Coastal Dynamics 2013
Arcachon, France

hal-00855035
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00855035

Éditeur(s) : HAL CCSD Elsevier
Résumé : International audience
During the last decade, the interaction of deep processes in the lithosphere and mantle with surface processes (erosion, climate, sea-level, subsidence, glacio-isostatic readjustment) has been the subject of heated discussion. The use of a multidisciplinary approach linking geology, geophysics, geodesy, modelling, and geotechnology has led to the awareness of coupled deep and surface processes. Deep earth dynamics (topography, erosion, tectonics) are strongly connected to natural hazards such as earthquakes, landslides, and tsunamis; sedimentary mass transfers have important consequences on isostatic movements and on georesources, geothermal energy repartitions. The ability to read and understand the link between deep Earth dynamics and surface processes has therefore important societal impacts. Ground-truthing at carefully-selected sites of investigation is imperative to better understand these connections.Due to its youth (<30 Ma) and its subsidence history, the almost land-locked Gulf of Lion–Sardinia continental margins system provides a unique record of sedimentary deposition from the Miocene to present. Due to its high subsidence rate, palaeoclimatic variations, tectonic events and vertical evolution are all recorded here at very high resolution. The late Miocene isolation and desiccation of the Mediterranean, the youngest and most catastrophic event, the Messinian Salinity Crisis (MSC), induced drastic changes in marine environments: widespread deposition of evaporite (gypsum, anhydrite and halite) in the central basin, and intense subaerial erosion along its periphery. These extraordinary mass transfers from land to sea induced strong isostatic re-adjustments that are archived in the sedimentary record and represent a window to the lithospheric rheology and the deep processes.The GOLD (Gulf of Lion Drilling) project, proposes to explore this unique sedimentary record as well as the nature of the deep crustal structure, providing valuable information about the mechanisms underlying vertical motions in basins and their margins.
ISSN: 0264-8172

insu-01197393
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01197393
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01197393/document
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01197393/file/Rabineau%20et%20al.-final-MPG2014_REVISED-FINAL-No-Marked_FINAL%2BFigures.pdf
DOI : 10.1016/j.marpetgeo.2015.03.018

Éditeur(s) : Oxford university press
Résumé : The eastern Baltic cod stock collapsed as a consequence of climate-driven adverse hydrographic conditions and over fishing and has remained at historically low levels. Spatio-temporal fishing closures [Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)] have been implemented since 1995, to protect and restore the spawning stock. However, no signs of recovery have been observed yet, either suggesting that MPAs are an inappropriate management measure or pointing towards suboptimal closure design. We used the spatially explicit fishery simulation model ISIS-Fish to evaluate proposed and implemented fishery closures, combining an age-structured population module with a multifleet exploitation module and a management module in a single model environment. The model is parameterized based on (i) the large amount of biological knowledge available for cod and (ii) an analysis of existing spatially disaggregated fishery data. As the population dynamics of eastern Baltic cod depend strongly on the climate-driven hydrographic regime, we considered two production regimes of the stock. MPAs were only effective for stock recovery when they reduced overall fishing effort. The performance of MPAs needs to be evaluated relative to environmental regimes, especially for stocks facing strong environmental variability.
ICES Journal of Marine Science (1054-3139) (Oxford university press), 2009 , Vol. 66 , N. 1 , P. 109-121

Droits : 2008 ICES/CIEM
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2009/publication-6094.pdf
DOI:10.1093/icesjms/fsn166
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/6094/

Résumé : Preliminary analysis of the impact of an environmental change on ichtyologic fauna marinates and fishing in Guyanese water enter within the framework of the program CHALOUPE (dynamic Change of the exploited marine biodiversity and the viability of the Fisheries) coordinated by Ifremer Cayenne and financed by the ANR (National Agency of Research). The study focuses on: -analysis temporal variations of various environmental parameters (sea surface temperature and salinity, the phenomenon El Niño) -fish physical characteristics (tolerances of temperature and salinity, maximum height, distribution…) - analysis of the unloadings per unit of effort of the inshore fishing and an economic analysis of the selling price of fish Data are found on data bases and are given by scientists. The statistical studies and the cartographic representations show that there is an increase in temperature of water in Guiana since the end of the Nineties. The model AquaMaps® simulates the potential consequences of this reheating on the fish distribution. Certain stocks of fishing are weakened. For the moment, if the composition of the captures of inshore fishing changes, that seems more due to a change of fishing strategy than due to an impact of the climatic change. In addition, the average value of the capture increased for reason commercial.
Les analyses de l’impact d’un changement environnemental sur la faune ichtyologique marine et la pêche dans les eaux guyanaises entrent dans le cadre du programme CHALOUPE (CHAngement gLObal, dynamiqUe de la biodiversité marine exploitée et de la viabilité des Pêcheries) coordonné par l’Ifremer Cayenne et financé par l’ANR (Agence Nationale de la Recherche). L’étude porte sur : -l’analyse des variations temporelles de différents paramètres environnementaux (température et salinité de surface des eaux, le phénomène El Niño) à l’échelle de quelques décennies -les caractéristiques physiques des poissons (tolérances de températures et de salinité (taille maximum, répartition…) ; -l’analyse des débarquements par unité d’effort de la pêche côtière depuis les années 70 ; -une analyse économique de la pêche ; Les données sont récoltées à partir de bases de données et au près de différents chercheurs. Les études statistiques et les représentations cartographiques démontrent qu’il y a bien une augmentation de température des eaux en Guyane depuis la fin des années 90. Le modèle statistique sous AquaMaps® permet de simuler les conséquences potentielles de ce réchauffement sur la répartition des poissons. Dans un tel contexte, certains stocks de pêche sont fragilisés. Pour le moment, si la composition des captures de la pêche côtière se modifie dans le même temps, cela semble plus du fait de changement de stratégie de pêche que du fait de l’impact du changement climatique. Par ailleurs, la valeur moyenne de la capture a augmenté pour des raisons commerciales.

Droits : 2006 Ifremer
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00077/18855/16429.pdf
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00077/18855/